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  1. #331
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    Date : 8th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets rallied after a positive close on wall Street. The trade surplus overshot expectations, and is bullish for China’s economy. China’s trade surplus improved to $40.2 bln in November from $38.1 bln in October, while Japan’s Q3 GDP grew 2.5% in the final reading, up from the preliminary 1.4% gain (q/q, saar). GDP grew 2.9% in the final report for Q2. Japan led the way as a weaker yen underpinned exporters, as the dollar gained amid reports that U.S. tax cuts are making progress in congress. With investors looking in profits at the end of a strong year for stocks there have been sizeable swings and forex markets remain a driver, with FTSE 100 futures in the red, as the Pound rallied on news of progress in Brexit negotiations that could see next week’s EU summit pave the way for early trade and transition talks. U.K. jobs data in the afternoon overshadows local data releases, which include French production, U.K. trade and the U.K. NIESR GDP estimate.


    White smoke over Brussels as U.K. and EU strike deal on key Brexit issues that is hoped to unlock Phase 2 and talks on a transition period and future trade relationships at next week’s summit. After agreeing on the future role of the ECJ yesterday May managed to find a compromise on the Irish boarder, that kept the DUP happy but also satisfied the Republic of Ireland, with the latter confirming that it will now back talks moving into Phase 2. The Pound rallied on the news and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher now after initially dipping on the stronger Pound. EGB yields are moving up in early trade as safe haven flows are being reversed. Elsewhere in europe, German sa trade surplus narrowsed as imports surged. Germany’s sa trade surplus narrowed to EUR 19.8 bln in October, from EWUR 21.9 bln in the previous month, as exports contract for a second consecutive month, while imports surged 1.8% m/m, after falling -1.1% m/m in September. The surge in imports may give a partial explanation and overall the prospects for exports and production remain good, despite the weak October numbers.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK Manuf. and Industrial Production – Expectations – Manufacturing Production to come at 0.1% m/m after 0.7% seen in September, and with 3.9% y/y growth from 2.7%. Industrial production headline to come in at 0.0% m/m after 0.7% m/m growth in September, and with 3.5% y/y growth.


    US NFP – Expectations – at 200K from 261K seen last month


    Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count


    Charts of the Day





    Support and Resistance Levels





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #332
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    Date : 11th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    The FOMC meeting is front and center this week following the solid November jobs report on Friday, which provided the final bit of cover for the Fed to push ahead with a quarter point December rate hike as well telegraphed. It will be the last meeting conducted by Chair Yellen, who can now tie a bow on her 3+ year tenure and hand the policy wand over to Jay Powell. Attention will remain on Europe too with a number of key events late in the week, including ECB and SNB policy meetings Thursday, and EU Leaders Summit and Brexit discussions, as well as German coalition building.


    United States: The U.S. calendar will be crowded by supply and the FOMC policy decision, but the economic reports could pack some punches of their own thanks to key releases on inflation and retail sales, among others. November headline PPI (Tuesday) is forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.4%; core PPI is set to increase just 0.2% vs 0.4%. The Treasury budget gap is also out (Tuesday) and is expected to narrow slightly to -$132 bln in November from -$137 bln a year ago. Headline CPI (Wednesday) is on tap to rise 0.4% in November from 0.1%; with a 0.2% core rise forecast. MBA mortgage applications and EIA energy inventories are also due (Wednesday). Headline retail sales (Thursday) are projected to increase 0.6% for November from 0.2%, while ex-auto sales may outperform at 1.0% vs 0.1%, given weaker auto sales of late. Import prices (Thursday) may rise 0.7% in November, while export prices are seen up 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are seen steady at 236k for the December 9 week. Business inventories may sink 0.1% for October (Thursday). All out on Friday, the Empire State index may rise to 20.0 in December from 19.4, industrial production is set to rise 0.2% in November and capacity use to 77.1%, while TIC flow data is due.


    Canada: Governor Poloz’s speech (Thursday) to the Canadian Club Toronto is the highlight of a fairly lean calendar this week. The speech will be published at 12:25 ET, with a press conference to follow at 13:45 ET. In last week’s announcement, the BoC maintained a cautious approach to further rate hikes amid “considerable uncertainty” on the global outlook. The press conference should make for interesting listenin, as Poloz and Wilkins expected to receive end of several pointed questions about wages, trade, GDP and what it will take to prompt another rate increase. Meanwhile, the economic reports due out this week have limited scope to alter the outlook for BoC policy. October manufacturing is expected to bounce 1.5% after the 0.5% gain in September. Existing home sales for November (Friday), the October new home price index (Thursday) and the Teranet/National HPI (Wednesday) will complete the housing data docket for October/November.


    Europe: With the holiday period approaching fast, the week is a bumper one for data, as well as key political events, and key central bank meetings. After May and Juncker reached a breakthrough agreement on key Brexit issues, EU heads of states are expected to officially declare that sufficient progress on divorce terms has been made to move to phase 2. In Germany, there is fresh hope that new elections can be avoided after the SPD reversed its decision not to enter coalition talks. The first official meeting is scheduled for this week. These events may overshadow Thursday’s ECB meeting to a certain extent, especially after Draghi effectively mapped out the policy path until the end of September 2018 by delivering a 9 month QE extension in October. Data releases ahead of the ECB meeting will be overshadowed by the full event calendar and focus on final inflation data for November, as well as the first round of December confidence data with preliminary PMI and German ZEW readings. Expectations are for the confidence numbers to fall back slightly, but remain at very high levels, consistent with strong growth and job creation. The headline HICP rates expected to confirm preliminary numbers of 1.8% for Germany (Wednesday), 1.3% for France (Thursday) and 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), which should leave overall Eurozone HICP (due Dec 18) at 1.5%, below the 2% upper limit for price stability, but with signs that underlying inflation pressures and wages are starting to pick up.


    UK: The pound opens the new week on a fragile footing after coming under pressure on Friday. That drop was partly due to sell-on-the-fact moves following the agreement between the EU and U.K. on divorcing terms, partly on rising concerns as the details of the deal are digested, and also in part on the sharpening of focus on the realities of the next phase of negotiations, which will involve agreeing on new trading terms with 27 countries in the relatively short time period until Brexit-Day in March 2019. The EU has already warned the U.K. that trade talks can’t happen until March next year. The main concern about the divorce agreement is “regulatory alignment” accord that was needed to maintain the Irish border as a soft border, a circumstance, as U.S. trade representatives have warned before, that could hinder or stop the U.K. from signing free trade deals with other countries. This seems to suggest that the government has, essentially, positioned the U.K. for a “soft” Brexit, and we have to now see how this unfolds politically.The data calendar is highlighted by November inflation numbers (Tuesday), the monthly labour market report covering October and November (Wednesday), and the November retail sales report (Thursday).


    Japan: In Japan, November PPI (Tuesday) is expected unchanged after firming to 3.4% y/y in October versus September’s 3.1%. However, the slightly stronger yen may have limited PPI gains. Any sign of rising inflation will be good news for the BoJ. The October tertiary index (Tuesday) should rebound 0.3% versus the previous -0.2% outcome based on gains in recent real sector data. October machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in with a 3.0% m/m gain from the 8.1% drop in September. Revised October industrial production is due Thursday. It posted a 0.5% gain in the preliminary report versus September’s -1.0%. It’s been on a choppy, saw-toothed monthly path through the year. Friday brings the December Tankan index, seen improving to 25 from 22 for large manufacturers, and to 26 from 23 for large non-manufacturers.


    China: November industrial production (Thursday) is forecast at little changed at 6.1% y/y from 6.2% previously. It’s held a 6-handle most of the year, with a couple of readings in the 7s. November fixed investment (Thursday) is expected to slow to a 7.1% y/y pace from 7.3%. November retail sales (Thursday), meanwhile, should rise to a 10.3% y/y rate from 10.0% previously.


    AustraliaReserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks at the Australian Payment Summit 2017 (Wednesday) on “An eAud?” Head of Payments Policy Richards participates in a discussion panel (Wednesday) at the Australian Payment Summit 2017. Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent speaks (Wednesday) on “The Availability of Business Finance.” The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in total jobs during November following the 3.7k rise in October. The unemployment rate is projected to hold at 5.4% in November.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #333
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    Date : 12th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, as this week’s central bank meetings come into focus and amid a lack of incentive for investors to push out indices beyond recent highs. U.S. markets still managed to move higher as investors shrugged off the explosion in New York, and while volumes were lacklustre U.S. but also U.K. stock futures are moving higher. The FTSE 100 already outperformed yesterday and ongoing pressure on the Pound is continuing to underpin market interest. Oil prices are higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 58.39 per barrel. The calendar, which started very slow yesterday, heats up today, with U.K. inflation numbers for November and the German ZEW investor confidence reading for December.


    FX Update: Narrow ranges have prevailed so far today as market participants sit on their hands ahead of key data from key economies this week, the first of which arrives later in the form of UK November inflation data and the latest German ZEW investor survey, along with a plethora of central bank policy decisions. EURUSD has settled near 1.1780, lacking direction after the rebound from Friday’s 1.1730 low stalled at levels above 1.1800. USDJPY has plied a narrow 14 pip range so far today, between 113.43 and 113.57, settling toward the lower part of this range, which roughly marks the midway point of yesterday’s range. Cable has settled to a narrow oscillation just above yesterday’s three-session low at 1.3330. The NZ dollar bucked the directionless trend, with the currency having rallied for a second successive session as markets continue to react to yesterday’s announced appointment of Adiran Orr as the new RBNZ governor. NZDUSD logged a two-week high at 0.6937.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK CPI and PPI – Expectations – headline and core CPI readings to remain unchanged at 3.0% y/y and 2.7% y/y, respectively, though producer input and output costs expected to tick higher, to respective rates of 6.8% y/y, from 4.6% y/y in the month prior, and to 3.0% y/y from 2.8% in October.


    German ZEW Sentiment – Expectations – at 18k from 18.7K seen last month


    US PPI and Core – Expectations – forecast to rise 0.4% vs 0.4%; core PPI is set to increase just 0.2% vs 0.4%.


    ECB President Draghi Speech at 19:00 GMT


    Charts of the Day





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #334
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    Date : 13th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook:Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan underperforming as the yen strengthened amid a wider dip in the dollar. The Hang Seng meanwhile outperformed and bounced back 1.3% with Air China Ltd rallying but casinos leading the gains on the benchmark index. U.K. and U.S. futures are in the read, however, ahead of the expected Fed hike today and as the dollar was hit by the Democrats win in the Alabama vote, which cast further doubt on Trump’s legislative agenda. Treasury yields declined overnight and Bund futures moved up from lows, suggesting fresh safe haven demand. The Fed announcement will overshadow the European calendar, which has German inflation at the start of the session as well as U.K. labour market data and Eurozone production and employment numbers.


    German Nov HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.8% y/y, as expected and up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that the main driver behind the uptick was a rebound in energy price inflation, with petrol prices rising 2.6% m/m, bringing the annual rate up to 5.9^ from 1.2%. Heating oil prices also surged and while the German headline rate now is pretty much in line with the ECB’s objective, Draghi can still refer to the transitory impact of energy prices and still wage growth when he defends his very expansionary policy. More importantly perhaps, the German rate is above the Eurozone rate and as there hasn’t been much progress with regard to economic convergence since the crisis, stronger countries such as Germany may have to be forced to live with a period of above target inflation to give the weaker countries more time to catch up. Either way, with wage growth still weak Draghi still has something to argue with as he defends his ongoing asset purchases, although with companies running into capacity constraints today’s numbers will add to pressure from Germany to commit to an end date for QE.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK ILO Unemployment & Average Earnings – Expectations – ILO unemployment rate expected to tick lower to a new 40-year low of 4.2%, from 4.3%, while the BoE-watched average household earnings to tick up to a cycle of 2.5% y/y from 2.2% y/y.


    US CPI – Expectations – 0.4% in November from 0.1%; with a 0.2% core rise forecast.


    FED Rate Decision and FOMC Press Conference at 19:00 GMT


    Charts of the Day





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #335
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    Date : 14th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Stock markets headed south overnight as the Fed hiked rates and maintained the rate outlook for next year, despite lifting growth projections. A surprise hike in short term interest rates by China’s central bank added to pressure. U.K. futures are also heading south as the focus switches to European central banks with ECB, BoE and SNB all seen on hold. The ECB in particular could sound more hawkish than at the last meeting as council members are increasingly divided over Draghi’s open ended QE policy amid signs of capacity constraints in the economy. Data releases include preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for December, U.K. retail sales, as well as final November inflation data for a number of Eurozone countries. EU heads of states will start to gather for the start of the summit that is hoped to finally pave the way for talks and trade and transition agreements with the U.K.


    FOMC hiked 25 bps and left the dots at three tightenings in 2018. The rate increase from a 1.25% to 1.50% policy band was universally expected, and the three tightenings next year was largely anticipated too. There were two dissents, with Evans and Kashkari dissented and voted for no change in rates. The Fed’s statement said the labor market continued to strengthen while economic activity was seen rising at a solid rate. On inflation, the Fed said overall and core inflation on a 12-month basis had declined this year and are running below 2%, , which may have provided the weight on the dollar.The dollar fell after the as-expected 25 basis point Fed rate hike, then quickly headed above levels just prior to the announcement, before dipping again.


    Main Macro Events Today


    SNB Monetary Policy – Expectations – SNB expected to continue to highlight the need for negative rates and reiterate the line from its previous policy meeting that it “will remain active in the foreign exchange market, as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.”


    UK Retail Sales – Expectations – 0.4% m/m rise after a 0.3% m/m gain in the month prior


    BoE Preview – The BoE’s two-day December MPC meeting concludes today. No change decisions on the repo rate, which would leave it at 0.50%, and QE totals (both gilts and corporate bond purchases) are widely expected, which we anticipate will be by unanimous votes at the nine-member committee.


    EU Services PMI – Expectations – a dip in the services reading to 56 from 56.2 and a decline in the manufacturing number to 59.8 from 60.1 in the previous month.


    ECB Preview – Data releases since the October meeting, when Draghi wrapped a reduction of net asset purchases form January onwards in a dovish guidance, have shown stronger than expected growth momentum that will likely see upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. Against that background calls for Draghi to finally commit to an end date for QE are getting louder as are warnings that the ECB’s policy may remain too accommodate as the output gaps closes faster than anticipated. Indeed, the event risk for today’s press conference is a more hawkish tone than markets expect, especially after yesterday’s Fed hike, as the move will give Draghi more room to manoeuvre without putting undue upward pressure on the EUR.


    US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims – Expectations – Headline Retail sales are projected to increase 0.3% for November from 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are seen at 239k from 236K last week.


    Charts of the Day





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #336
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    Date : 15th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south overnight, U.K. futures are also in the red, following on from broad losses on European and U.S. equity markets yesterday. Uncertainty over the progress of the U.S. tax bill continues to linger and relatively dovish signals from ECB and BoE yesterday sent yields down, but failed to lift sentiment on stock markets and while ECB President Draghi insisted on the open ended element of the QE program, ECB’s Vasiliauskas said “it is likely that the economy won’t require any additional support”. EU heads of state failed to reach an agreement on the immigration crisis yesterday and Brexit talks will take centre stage today, with officials expected to pave the way for talks and trade and transition. The economic calendar quietens down with Eurozone trade data the highlight of the agenda.


    FX Update: The dollar has been traded mixed, posting fresh losses versus the yen and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar, consolidating gains it saw yesterday versus the euro, in the wake of the ECB’s announcement and guidance, and holding steady-to-firmer against a raft of emerging-world currencies. The pound, meanwhile, is trading versus the dollar near the levels prevailing ahead of the BoE announcement and statement yesterday, having managed to recoup losses. USD-JPY is down, having ebbed back below 112.20, though has so far remained above yesterday’s nine-day low at 112.06. Mostly weaker stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, along with a solid reading from the latest quarterly Tankan survey of business confidence in Japan, which showed the best quarter for Japanese manufacturers since 2006, were factors that have been conducive for yen strength. EUR-USD and euro crosses consolidated losses seen in the wake of the ECB’s dovish guidance yesterday. EUR-USD made time in a narrow range in the upper 1.17s. More of the same seems likely today. Sterling markets will pay particular attention to Brexit talks at the EU’s leaders’ summit.n.


    Main Macro Events Today


    EU Trade Balance – Expectations – decrease in trade surplus,down to 24.4B from 25.0B euros.


    MPC Member Haldane Speech at 13:15 GMT


    Canadian Manufacturing Sales- Expectations – 0.8% from 0.5% from last month.


    US Empire State index – Expectations – 20.0 in December from 19.4


    US Industrial Production- Expectations – 0.2% in November and capacity use to 77.1%


    Charts of the Day





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #337
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    Date : 18th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    Global markets can benefit from some early Christmas presents as major political uncertainties seem to be resolving. The U.S. Congress is expected to pass the tax reform package and send it to President Trump before the weekend. Agreement between the EU and U.K. will move Brexit talks to the second stage. And, Germany’s SPD party agreed to exploratory talks on renewed cooperation with Chancellor Merkel. About the only hurdle could be Thursday’s elections in Catalonia. For bonds, the dovish policies from the ECB and BoJ, a less hawkish BoE, and still benign inflation, should keep a ceiling on rates. Trading will quiet into the weekend with early closes on Friday ahead of Christmas on Monday, with many markets still off Tuesday.


    United States: As the year starts to wind down, attention will remain on the tax bill. After much wrangling, it appears a bill will be passed after several GOP Senators indicated they would vote yes on the compromise version. The House is slated to vote Tuesday, with the Senate likely on Wednesday to give ailing Senator McCain time to get to Washington. As for data, all of the crucial reports are out of the way. Housing reports headline the economic calendar, which also includes revised GDP, December manufacturing numbers, income/spending, and durable goods orders. But the reports won’t really alter current outlooks for solid economic gains and still low inflation. Also, several of the reports, especially housing and durables, will still be impacted by disaster whiplash.


    Canada: In Canada, the data slate provides another round of figures for the Bank of Canada’s data driven approach to policy, which was back in the spotlight last week after the Governor said “caution” in not a code word for on hold.Hence the anticipation remains that they will hold steady in January, hike 25 basis points in March to 1.25% and implement two more moves later in 2018 to gradually lift the policy rate to 1.75% by the end of 2018. The economic data this week will be scrutinised for clues that conditions will be/won’t be ripe for a rate hike at the January 17 announcement. Wholesale shipment values (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.5% in October after the 1.2% drop in September. October average weekly earnings, part of the establishment survey, are also due Wednesday. The CPI is expected to rise 0.2.% in November (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% gain in October, as higher gasoline prices impact. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to rise 0.5% in October after the weak 0.1% gain in September. October GDP has the privilege of being the last report released this year and expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.2% m/m pick-up in September.


    Europe: Political events were relatively positive in Europe last week. The elections in Catalonia on December 21 provide a last focus on the political arena this week, especially as polls suggest a head to head race between the parties in favour and those against independence from Spain. This week’s round of date releases include the German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday), which we expect to nudge higher to 107.5. The German economy is bursting at its seems and the Bundesbank just upped its growth forecast significantly at least for this year and warned to sizeable wage growth ahead. ECB’s Draghi meanwhile continues to see not insufficient progress on inflation and wages and indeed, November Eurozone HICP inflation (Monday) is expected to be confirmed at 1.5%, up from the previous month, but far below the ECB’s objective. More importantly, the breakdown is expected to confirm that higher energy prices were the main driving factor behind the uptick in the headline rate in November and core inflation is still at just 0.9% y/y. So plenty for Draghi to argue with, although whether the central bank can risk seeing inflation running away in the largest economy remains to be seen. More importantly perhaps, while growth forecasts have been revised up, the growth profile in Germany and the Eurozone suggests a peak in annual rates this year, so the ECB will start to scale back support when growth is already slowing down. The calendar also has German producer (Wednesday) and import price inflation (Friday) for November, where energy prices are expected to lift headline rates. Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as consumer confidence readings for Germany and the Eurozone are also on the agenda, as are French consumer spending and national confidence indicators for Italy and France.


    UK: Sterling markets, as others, will be winding down for the Christmas and New Year holiday period while still digesting the less hawkish than anticipated guidance the BoE delivered following its MPC meeting last week. The calendar this week kicks off with the December CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), which expected to show a modest decline in the headline total orders reading, to +15 from +17 of the November survey. The CBI also releases its December distributive sales report (Wednesday). The third and final release of Q3 GDP data is up (Friday), along Q3 current account data.


    Japan: In Japan, the BoJ meets (Wednesday, Thursday). No changes are expected to rates or QE. Despite a much improved economy, inflation is subdued. Chief Kuroda is expected to remain patient for now. The October all-industry index (Wednesday) is expected up 0.2% versus the 0.5% decline in September. .


    Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to its December meeting (Tuesday). Rates were held at 1.50%, as expected. The calendar contains no top tier data this week.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #338
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    Date : 19th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with Japan and South Korea underperforming as Japan decides to strengthen its missile system to defend against North Korea. RBA meanwhile showed increased confidence in the economic outlook, which weighed on bonds, but underpinned gains on stock markets. Technology shares underpinned gains in Hang Seng and CSI 300. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher and the risk on theme continues as U.S. tax reform hopes underpins sentiment. European peripheral bond markets outperformed yesterday underpinned by Portugal’s ratings upgrade, but with Spain outperforming on both bond and stock markets. Today’s data round includes German Ifo confidence for December, which is expected to fall back slightly. Eurozone construction output and wage data are also due.


    FX Update:Narrow ranges have been prevailing, and more of the same looks likely, though there could be some chop around data releases and news developments, with moves prone to be exaggerated by thin market conditions. All the dollar pairings we track are showing less than a 0.2% range so far today. USDJPY’s range has been centring around 112.50, while EURUSD has managed to drift up from around 1.1775-80 toward the 1.1800 level. Cable is also moderately higher, though, like EURUSD, remains comfortably below its high from yesterday. Focus remains on the U.S. tax overhaul bill, with the House expected to vote on it today and the Senate tomorrow, with indications suggesting that a successful passage is on. The December German Ifo business climate survey is also due later.


    Main Macro Events Today


    German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – nudge higher to 107.5 after the surprise uptick in December PMIs and ongoing positive trends in manufacturing orders.


    EU Labour cost- Expectations – 2.0% from 0.8% in Q2.


    US Housing Starts – Expectations – 1.250 mln after the 13.7% October jump to 1.290 mln.


    FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks


    Charts of the Day





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #339
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    Date : 20th December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed. Japanese markets managed to pick up as banks benefited from the sharp rise in Treasury yields yesterday. The U.S. tax vote failed to spark a firework on markets, but after the sharp uptick in long interest rates across major markets yesterday and in Asia overnight hopes of a recovering in earnings for financial stocks have been underpinning equities and U.S. stock futures are also up. UK100 futures meanwhile are in the red however. Treasury yields meanwhile dipped slightly from Tuesdays highs in overnight trade and Bund futures moved up from lows. Today’s calendar has seen German PPI inflation down two ticks at 0.1% as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey. Sweden’s Riksbank meanwhile is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at -0.50% today.


    US Tax Bill: The US Senate has approved the most sweeping overhaul of the US tax system in more than three decades.The House of Representatives earlier approved the bill comfortably. Republicans have majorities in both houses of Congress. For final approval the legislation must go back to the House on today for a procedural issue. If it passes, as expected, it will be President Donald Trump’s first major legislative triumph. Critics say the package is a deficit-bloating giveaway to the super-rich.


    U.S. Data Reports: Revealed a solid November housing starts report that lifted already encouraging prospects for the Q4-Q1 housing sector, alongside a big unexpected drop in the Q3 current account deficit. For housing, November strength was skewed toward single family starts and activity in the disaster-riddled south and west, and the 3.3% headline starts rise included a solid 1.0% rise in starts under construction after upward revisions that lifted our Q4 real residential construction growth estimate to 10% from 9%, though we still expect a Q4 GDP growth rate of 2.5% after a Q3 growth boost to 3.4% from 3.3%. For the current account, the deficit fell in Q3 to just $100.6 bln from $124.4 (was $123.1) bln, thanks to a big rise in the surplus on primary income and a big drop in the secondary deficit, alongside an expected narrowing in the goods deficit and a slight widening in the service surplus.


    Fedspeak: Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari repeated his warnings from Monday in the wake of the FOMC decision that there remains slack in the labour market and the Fed should not raise rates. He also noted in a Q&A session that local regulations are driving up the cost of housing and hurting affordable housing.


    Main Macro Events Today


    BOE Carney Speech – The Governor is due to testify on the November Financial Stability Report (FSR) before the UK’s Treasury Select Committee. Scheduled to strt at 13:15 GMT.


    New Zealand GDP – The December Quarter GDP figure is expected to show a decline form 0.8% in September down to 0.6%. Data is reported at 21:45 GMT and is the first GDP posting since the new government was elected and the new head of the RBNZ was announced.


    Charts of the Day





    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #340
    Senior Trader
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    Date : 22nd December 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd December 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: The global equity rally continued in Asia overnight, after banks and energy companies underpinned gains on Wall Street yesterday. The Nikkei rose 0.16% after the cabinet approval of a budget plan that includes extra stimulus spending. The Hang Seng is up 0.34%, helped by developers. In Europe the FTSE 100 managed record highs yesterday and closed with a gain of more than 1%, but stock futures are suggesting a correction today. In the Eurozone the election victory of Catalonia’s Separatists weighed on the EUR and is likely to hit Spanish markets, after the outperformance of the IBEX yesterday. The ECB halts its bond buying from today for the quiet holiday period and trading is likely to wind down as the year end comes into view. Today the calendar holds French PPI, consumer spending and final Q3 GDP as well as the Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italian sentiment data and the final reading of U.K. Q3 GDP.


    German GfK consumer confidence: Improved to 10.8 in the projected January reading. The breakdown for November, when confidence held steady at 10.7 showed an improvement in business cycle expectations, but more importantly income expectations, but despite this the willingness to buy declined slightly as the willingness to save turned less negative. Still overall a positive number that suggests consumption will continue to underpin overall growth, as the labour market continues to improve and wage growth picks up.


    German import price inflation: Accelerated to 2.7% y/y in November, from 2.6% y/y in the previous month. the data were in line with our forecast, but a tad above Bloomberg consensus, as higher energy price inflation lifted the annual rate. Without oil prices would have risen just 0.2% m/m and 1.2% y/y, so despite the uptick in the headline rate something for Draghi to argue with as underlying inflation remains modest, although in the three months trend rate the reading excluding energy turned positive for the first time since May.


    U.S. Data Reports: U.S. House passed a short-term, stop-gap spending bill by a vote of 231-188. The bill, which still must be approved by the Senate, would avert a government shutdown on Friday, and would fund the government through January 19. This bill would maintain he same spending levels currently mandated. It would also allow for $4.5 bln in emergency funding for missile defense, as well as money for various healthcare programs, including $2.85 bln for CHIP, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. The bill also included a waiver for the automatic spending cuts that would kick in under PAYGO, and that would allow President Trump to sign the tax reform bill just passed. The revised U.S. Q3 GDP data imply a Q3 productivity growth trimming to 2.8% from 3.0%, after a Q2 rate of 1.5%, with output growth of a revised 3.9% (was 4.1%) in Q3 after a 3.9% Q2 pace. We expect Q3 hourly compensation growth of an unrevised 2.7% after a 0.3% rate in Q2. The mix should leave a flat (was -0.2%) Q3 unit labor cost figure after a 1.2% Q2 drop. We expect unrevised hours-worked growth of 1.1% in Q3 after a 2.4% Q2 clip. We expect personal income growth of 4.1% in Q4 as income is pushed into 2018 from 2017 in anticipation of tax cuts, as seen last year, following an unrevised 2.8% rate in Q3. Disposable income should grow at a 4.1% in Q4 after a 2.1% (was 2.0%) rate in Q3. The savings rate should fall to a cycle-low 2.9% in Q4 with a monthly cycle-low that we peg at 2.5% in December as bonuses are delayed to January, from 3.3% in Q3 and 3.7% in Q2, versus a prior cycle-low 3.6% in Q4 of last year. We saw a 3-year high of 6.2% back in Q2 of 2015.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US Durable Goods – Expectations are for a significant increase in the headline figure to 2.0% from a revise -0.8% last time but the key core figure is expected to slip to 0.5% from 0.9% last time. With CAD data also at 13:30 there could be interesting movements on the USDCAD pair again today like we saw yesterday following the US GDP miss and strong Canadian data.


    Canadian GDP – Expectations are for a rise to 0.2% (m/m, sa). Wholesale volumes were also good news for GDP, rebounding 1.2% in October after the 1.0% tumble in September. The growth in retail sales and wholesale shipment is a welcome contrast with the 1.5% plunge in October manufacturing shipment volumes. Housing starts grew 1.9% to a 222.8k unit pace in October from 218.7k in September, suggestive of a positive contribution from construction. The outlook for the mining, oil and gas sector is positive: Energy exports rose 2.7% in October after a 3.6% gain in September and a 1.7% increase in August. The manufacturing report’s measure of petroleum and coal shipments rose 2.2% in October after a 9.7% gain in September. We expect GDP to improve to a 2.6% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from 1.7% in Q3, which would be right in line with the BoC’s 2.5% estimate from the October MPR.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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