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  1. #261
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    Date : 1st September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets are hanging on to modest gains, as investors hold back ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report. Hang Seng and CSI stabilized, after being knocked back by profit taking yesterday and Hong Kong is set for a third weekly gain. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index completed is posting an eight-straight month of gains. U.S. futures are also slightly higher, U.K. futures are down, however, after European stocks were knocked back from highs in the PM session yesterday but still managed to close with solid gains. Today’s calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings, with the Eurozone number expected to be confirmed at 57.4, and the U.K. reading seen nudging higher to 55.0 from 55.1.


    US reports: revealed a largely as-expected personal income report, though with modestly stronger than expected path for “real” consumption, a small PCE chain price undershoot, and a savings rate drop to just 3.5%, alongside a 1k initial claims uptick to a still-lean 236k that signals upside risk for190k August nonfarm payroll estimate. The Chicago PMI remained at the lofty 58.9 July reading, versus a 37-month high of 65.7 in June, and this adds to Friday’s upside risk. Next Thursday an outsized spike in claims is expected with the impact of hurricane Harvey, given shutdowns across the Houston port and petro-chemical complex that could have far-reaching effects across the transportation sector. An assumption of 39k claims rise to 275k has been taken, but with risk of a much larger gain. For prior spikes, we saw gains of 96k with Katrina, 34k with Ike, 25k with Rita, and 22k with Isaac.


    Canada‘s second half GDP outlook improved following the strong Q2 and June GDP reports. Consumption revealed the anticipated strong gain in Q2 after a robust Q1. Yet the June GDP report showed another solid month of retail output (+0.8%) after the firm 0.9% May gain, defying expectations that the households would temper spending going into Q3. M&E investment did slow to a 3.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, saar) but after a massive 28.9% surge in Q1. Also, this is the first back to back increase in M&E investment since Q3 and Q4 of 2014. And exports picked-up to a 9.6% clip in Q2 after anemic growth in Q1 (+1.5%) and Q4 (+0.8%). There were no tricks or special factors in Q2, Canada’s growth was/is simply robust. The Q3 GDP estimate has been lifted to 2.5% from 2.1% and Q4 forecast to 2.3% from 2.1%. Growth is on track for a 3.1% pace in 2017, more than double the 1.5% rate in 2016 and above the BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet core inflation remains well below target and risks from abroad have perhaps intensified since July, which should keep the BoC on a gradualist rate hike path. Also, the loonie is likely a concern, as a more hawkish/aggressive path would strengthen the currency and temper the outlook for exporters.


    Europe: revealed a steady unemployment rate at 9.1% in July. Jobless numbers have improved steadily and on the whole the labour market is looking better than hoped a year ago, although further structural reforms remain necessary to reduce underlying unemployment and bring countries closer together. At the moment jobless numbers still range from 2.9% in the Czech Republic to over 20% in Greece. The harmonised German rate stands at just 3.7%, while neighbouring France still reports a rate of 9.8%, which is actually up from 9.6% in the previous month. Macron’s government is set to present its plans for a reform of the labour market today, but so far the new French President has failed to live up to expectations. Eurozone Aug HICP inflation rose to 1.5% y/y, a tad higher than initially expected, but not a surprise after national data from Germany, Spain and France. The uptick in the headline rate was mainly driven by a renewed acceleration in annual energy price inflation, which jumped to 4.0% y/y from 2.2% y/y in July.


    Main Macro Events Today


    EU & UK PMI – The final August Manufacturing PMI is likely to be confirmed at a very strong 57.4 suggesting a fresh acceleration in activity over the summer. In UK, the manufacturing PMI has us anticipating a 55.0 outcome after 55.1 in the prior month. The manufacturing sector has been the relative bright spot in the UK economy, with businesses in the sector benefiting from the increased competitiveness the weaker pound has brought them in export markets, although the consequential cost pressures are being felt on bottom lines, while eroding real wages is curtailment on domestic market potential.


    US NFP & Employment Rate – Payrolls should rise 180k after July’s 209k gain. That would bring the 2017 average to 185k, not too different than the 194k increase over the same eight months in 2016. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, tying the lowest rate since May 2001. Earnings are expected to rise 0.2% following the 0.3% July increase. Data in line with forecasts would be consistent with solid economic growth as the second half of the year begins.


    US Manufacturing ISM – The August ISM is expected to ease to 56.5 in August after sliding 1.5 points to 56.3 in July. The index is still holding firm and well above the 52.0 in November.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #262
    Senior Trader
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    Date : 4th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    The next four months will be busy ones for policymakers as we head into year end. It will be a busy four months for policymakers heading into year-end. The U.S. Congress returns from recess on Tuesday and will be immediately confronted with debt limit and budget issues. The devastation from Hurricane Harvey may have accelerated the U.S. fiscal agenda. Across the pond, Brexit negotiations have made “no decisive progress.” Meanwhile, the ECB should start talks on balance sheet normalization. Asian markets will remain subject to North Korea angst after last week’s missile launch over Japan, and reports that an H-bomb has been successfully loaded onto an ICBM.


    United States: U.S. markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Congress is back in session starting Tuesday and has a lot on its plate. Debt limit issues and emergency hurricane aid will be first and foremost on the list. Along with fiscal issues, monetary policy will factor into trading. Fedspeak will dominate the calendar and after the disappointing August jobs report, it will be interesting to hear what policymakers have to say. This week’s slate includes several FOMC voters, including Dudley, Brainard, Kashkari, Kaplan, and Harker. While most all Committee members have supported the start of the balance sheet normalization “soon,” which likely translates into this month, outlooks on the rate stance have been more diverse. The softness in the jobs report further reduced already low risks for another rate hike at the December 12, 13 policy meeting. The upcoming September 19, 20 meeting had long been ruled out as the Fed indicated it would delay tightening when it began unwinding the balance sheet, which is expected to be announced at the upcoming meeting. Additionally, the slippage in inflation, the dovish shift from several policymakers, especially including Yellen, the rising geopolitical risks, also suggested the FOMC would remain sidelined this month.


    This week’s data slate is thin with just a few reports of much interest. The August ISM services index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 1.1 points to 55.0, recovering somewhat from the 3.5 point tumble to 53.9 in July. The July trade deficit (Wednesday) is forecast widening to -$44.6 bln amid declines in imports and exports, after narrowing 5.9% to -$43.6 bln in June. Revised Q2 productivity and unit labor costs (Thursday) should show productivity bumped up to a 1.3% clip from 0.9% previously, while costs should be nudged down to a 0.2% pace from 0.6%.


    Canada: The Bank of Canada’s announcement (Wednesday) is the week’s attention getter. No change is expected in the current 0.75% rate setting at Wednesday’s announcement, as the Bank takes a breather after raising rates 25 basis points in July. The accompanying announcement (there is no presser or MPR) should maintain the upbeat outlook on growth and inflation that came alongside the July rate increase.The policy rate expected to be lifted to 1.00% in October. The data calendar is busy in the holiday shortened week (Monday is a market holiday). Labor productivity (Wednesday) is expected to be flat in Q2 (q/q, sa) following the 1.4% surge in Q1 (q/q, sa), as both GDP and hours worked grew 1.1% in Q2 (q/q, sa). The trade deficit (Wednesday) is seen widening to -C$3.9 bln in July from -C$3.6 bln in June. Building permit values (Thursday) are projected to grow 2.0% m/m in July after the 2.5% gain in June. The Ivey PMI (Thursday) is expected to improve to 61.0 in August from 60.0 in July. A 30.0k rise is anticipated for August employment (Friday) after the 11.0k rise in July. The unemployment rate is expected at 6.3%, matching July. Capacity utilization (Friday) is projected to bounce to 84.5% in Q2 from 83.3% in Q1, as the rapid GDP growth in the first half lifts capacity use.


    Europe: The ECB meeting (Thursday) highlights the week, while the highlight of this week’s economic calendar are the final reading of August Eurozone Services and composite PMIs (Tuesday), detailed Eurozone Q2 GDP (Thursday) and July German manufacturing orders (Tuesday). The overall growth number is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q, unchanged from Q1, with the breakdown likely to show robust domestic demand. However, there also should be signs that the strong EUR is fuelling import growth, which in turn is weighing on net exports. Survey data suggest that the recovery is strengthening and more importantly perhaps broadening in the summer quarter. And while the final services PMI is expected to confirm the drop back to 54.9 in August from July’s 55.4, the composite reading should be confirmed at 55.8, up from 55.7 in July, which together with the much stronger than expected ESI confidence readings will back the arguments for the ECB to gradually reduce the additional amount of stimulus that is still being pumped into the economy every month. German manufacturing orders data for July (Wednesday), meanwhile, will be the first real data for the third quarter and we are looking for a slowing in the monthly growth rate to 0.2% m/m from 1.0% in June, while industrial production is likely to rebound from the 1.1% drop in June and rise a stronger 0.7% m/m. Germany also has July trade data, while the Eurozone has retail sales and PPI inflation. Production data is also due from France.


    UK: The calendar this week brings the August construction and services PMI surveys (Monday and Tuesday, respectively), the BRC retail sales report for the same month (Tuesday) and July production and trade data (Friday). All eyes will be on the PMIs, especially those on the dominant service sector, after Friday’s stellar manufacturing survey, which highlighting that the manufacturing sector has continued to benefit from the combo of strong global growth and a competitive exchange rate while not being perturbed by Brexit anxieties. The construction PMI expected to come in at 52.0 in the headline reading, which would be near unchanged from July’s 51.9 outcome. The services PMI has us expecting a slight ebb, to 53.5, returning to near the six-month low seen in June at 53.4, after 53.8 in the prior month. The July services PMI survey shone a light on the impact Brexit-related uncertainty is having on this sector, feedback that is not likely to have changed much this month.


    New Zealand: The calendar is again sparse in terms of top tier data. Q2 manufacturing is due Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28. No change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.


    Japan: The August services PMI (Tuesday) is set to improve to 52.5 from 52.0. The second look at Q2 GDP (Friday) is expected to see a downgrade bump to 3.0% from the initial 4.0% reading, while the July current account surplus is seen expanding to JPY 1,800.0 bln from 934.6 bln. August bank loan figures are also due Friday.


    China: The August services PMI (Tuesday) is penciled in at 51.0 from 51.5, while the August trade surplus (Friday) is forecast at $49.0 bln from $46.7 bln. August CPI and PPI are tentatively due on Saturday, with the former seen rising to 1.7% y/y from 1.4%, and the latter slipping to 5.3% y/y from 5.5%.


    Australia: a busy calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the 1.50% policy setting. The data docket is headlined by Q2 GDP (Wednesday), expected to improve to a 0.5% pace (q/q, sa) from the sluggish 0.3% growth rate in Q1. The Q2 current account (Tuesday) is seen at -A$8.0 bln from the -A$3.1 bln deficit in Q1. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to rise 0.3% in July after the matching 0.3% gain in June. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen narrowing to an A$0.8 bln surplus in July from the A$0.9 bln surplus in June. Housing investment (Friday) is anticipated to gain 1.5% m/m in July after the 0.5% rise in June. ANZ job ads for August and the August Melbourne Institute inflation index are due Monday. Reserve Bank of Australia officials are busy this week: Governor Lowe speaks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner in Brisbane (Tuesday). The RBA’s head of Economic Analysis, Alex Heath, speaks at the Economic Society of Australia, Tasmania (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Debelle participates in a panel discussion (Friday). Governor Lowe delivers brief remarks at the Bank of China Sydney Branch’s 75th Anniversary Celebration Dinner (Friday).


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #263
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    Date : 5th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with stocks in Tokyo and South Korea still pressured by North Korea jitters, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to move higher. A stronger Yen added to pressure on Japanese exporters as did a weaker than anticipated Services PMI, and while war rhetoric has stepped up, global markets don’t seem in full on panic mode. The RBA left rates on hold, as expected and the ASX is moving sideways. U.K. stock futures are higher, after broad, but relatively modest losses in European markets yesterday. U.S. futures are in the red as Dow Jones and Nasdaq return from yesterday’s holiday. If U.K. stocks manage to stabilize, Gilts are likely to continue to move up from yesterday’s lows, while Eurozone markets could well outperform again, as tapering expectations are being pushed out amid rising geopolitical risks and a strong EUR. The European calendar has the final reading of the Eurozone services PMI, as well as the U.K. services PMI, Eurozone retail sales, and Swiss CPI and GDP numbers.


    FX Update: The yen and franc retained a safe haven bid, although the degree of risk aversion was somewhat less than a run to the hills, and more of a weary expression of concern with regard to the North Korea’s ratcheting up of the geopolitical ante with nuclear testing. USD-JPY fell for a second day, logging a five-session low at 109.20. This extends the loss from the 110.67 peak seen before the disappointing employment report out of the U.S. last Friday. USDCHF declined to a four-session low at 0.9544, and EURCHF a five-session low, at 1.1367. EURUSD, meanwhile, settled to a narrow orbit of the 1.1900 level, holding below the1.1920 high seen yesterday. The USD index was near net steady, consolidating after dropping yesterday. AUDUSD saw some whippy price action into and after the RBA policy announcement and statement. The antipodean central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% for the 13th straight month, as expected, while the governor’s statement was somewhat mixed in tone, but welcomed signs of slowing in the property market while jawboning about the high exchange rate (which, if sustained, would lead to slower economic growth). AUDUSD settled near 0.7950-60, down from the intraday high at 0.7985.


    The UK’s August construction PMI disappointed, coming in with a headline reading of 51.1, down form 51.9 in July and the weakness level since August 2016. A sharp decline in commercial construction work drove the headline lower, which more than offset robust growth in residential building. Civil engineering activity was new stagnant. Reduced business investment and associated heightened economic uncertainty were reported by respondents to be crimping demand in the commercial sector. Job creation in the construction sector was its weakest since July 2016 (which was the month after the vote to leave the EU, which caused a temporary economic shock). The biggest take away from the survey is that new order volumes fell for a second consecutive month, as this portends sustained weakness in the construction sector. Eurozone July PPI inflation fell back to 2.0% y/y, more than anticipated and with June revised down to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y reported initially. However, preliminary August HICP data already showed a renewed uptick in energy price inflation that will likely be reflected in the PPI number for that month as well and at the same time, PMI readings suggest that the disinflationary phase in cost pressures has come to an end. So the overall tide in inflation seems to be slowly turning, even if the PPI number came in down in July.


    Main Macro Events Today


    EU PMI & Services – The final reading of August Eurozone Services and composite PMIs and July German manufacturing orders are out today. The final services PMI is expected to confirm the drop back to 54.9 in August from July’s 55.4, the composite reading should be confirmed at 55.8, up from 55.7 in July, which together with the much stronger than expected ESI confidence readings will back the arguments for the ECB to gradually reduce the additional amount of stimulus that is still being pumped into the economy every month.


    Fedspeak – The generally dovish Governor Brainard kicks things off (07:30 ET) and discusses monetary policy and the economy at a breakfast speech before the Economic Club of New York. She’s been supportive of beginning the balance sheet unwind, but will probably counsel patience on rates. Uber-dove Kashkari attends two events, including a town hall meeting (at 12:30 ET and 13:10 ET). He’s also an advocate of patience. The hawk Kaplan speaks at the Dallas Business Club (19:00 ET).


    RBA – Governor Lowe speaks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner in Brisbane.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #264
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    Date : 6th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south overnight, following on from broad losses in the U.S. and Europe outside of Germany yesterday. The DAX managed to rescue a 0.18% gain into the close but risk aversion spiked higher amid ongoing North Korea jitters and as another storms heads for the U.S. FTSE 100 futures are down and Bund futures extended gains in after hour trade yesterday, so yields, which dropped sharply yesterday are likely to remain under pressure. In the Eurozone tapering expectations are being pushed back ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Fed comments also were relatively dovish. Also today, Australian Q2 GDP came in slightly below expectations, albeit at a robust growth pace of 0.8% y/y, up from 0.3% q/q in Q1, and marking the 26th consecutive month of expansion. The Aussie dipped to a low of 0.7978 before settling around 0.7990.


    Germany: Manufacturing orders unexpectedly corrected -0.7% m/m in July, June was revised down to 0.9% m/m from 1.0% m/m. Domestic orders corrected -1.6% m/m, after surging 4.8% m/m in the previous month. Foreign orders meanwhile stagnated and it is not just the strong EUR that is to blame, with orders from other Eurozone countries actually falling for a second consecutive month. Somewhat of a set back then for the German manufacturing sector, which ties in with the dip in the German manufacturing reading that month. Ifo and PMI readings for August, however, suggest a stabilization with subsequent data, still for now it will give the doves at the ECB something to argue with tomorrow.


    U.S: The U.S. factory data beat estimates with July gains for nondurable shipments, inventories and orders after June boosts, alongside almost no revisions in the durables data beyond small July hikes for equipment. The figures still show a big Boeing-led June-July transportation orders gyration and a defense orders surge, with firm July ex-transportation orders and strong equipment data. More precisely, U.S. factory orders dropped 3.3% in July, reversing the 3.2% June bounce (revised from 3.0%) from -0.3% in May. Durable goods orders were left at -6.8%, as they were in the Advance July release. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft climbed 1.0% after slipping 0.1% in June (revised from unchanged). July shipments edged up 0.3% following a 0.1% prior gain in June (revised from -0.2%). Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft jumped 1.2% versus 0.6% previously. Inventories were up 0.2% from 0.3% previously (revised from 0.2%). The inventory-shipment ratio slipped to 1.37 from 1.38. This is a solid report, aside from the as-expected headline decline.


    FedSpeak: Yesterday, Fed Governor Brainard said that she sees raising rates more gradually than the median forecast as prudent, but is ready to start shrinking the balance sheet. She remains concerned that recent low price readings are due to depressed underlying inflation, which remains “well short” of its objective, and remains cautious on rate hikes accordingly. Dovish Brainard sees few signs of asset bubbles and feels inflation data should be closely assessed and the Fed should be confident before raising rates. On the other hand, Fed dove Kashkari said rate hikes may be doing real harm to the economy and premature rate hikes are not free in terms of inflation and job growth, as the Fed may be allowing inflation expectations to slip. He also sees a lot more slack in the labor market than the Fed appreciates.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Canada Trade – The trade deficit expected to reveal a widening to -C$3.9 bln in July from -C$3.6 bln in June. Exports are seen rising 1.5% m/m in July after the 4.3% drop in June. Imports are expected to grow 2.0% m/m in July following the 0.3% rise in June.Labor productivity is expected to be flat in Q2 (q/q, sa) following the 1.4% surge in Q1 (q/q, sa), as both GDP and hours worked grew 1.1% in Q2 (q/q, sa).


    US ISM & Trade – The August ISM services index is expected to rise 1.1 points to 55.0, recovering somewhat from the 3.5 point tumble to 53.9 in July. The July trade deficit is forecast widening to -$44.6 bln amid declines in imports and exports, after narrowing 5.9% to -$43.6 bln in June.


    BOC – The Bank of Canada’s announcement is the week’s attention getter. No change in the current 0.75% rate setting is expected at today’s announcement, as the Bank takes a breather after raising rates 25 basis points in July.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #265
    Senior Trader
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    Date : 7th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Stock markets started to stabilise late Wednesday, and GER30 and CAC 40 managed to regain losses and close higher, Wall Street also posted gains at the close and Asian markets are currently narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up 0.15%, despite a stronger Yen. North Korea concerns continue to weigh on sentiment, but news of a U.S. deal on the debt ceiling that ensures funding amid persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing Hurricane threats has helped to calm nerves and FTSE 100 futures are up, although U.S. futures are already heading south. In the Eurozone the focus will be firmly on the ECB meeting, with a Bloomberg source story confirming yesterday that while officials will discuss policy options for 2018 today, a decision is unlikely to come before October, which is pretty much the consensus view. The Swedish Riksbank is also expected to keep key rates unchanged today. The calendar also has German production data at the start of the session, as well as the second and detailed reading of Eurozone Q2 GDP and U.K. house price data from the Halifax.


    Germany: German production stagnated in July, against expectations for a rebound from the dip in June that was revised down to -1.1% m/m. Excluding contraction production declined -0.1% m/m and the three months trend rate slowed to 1.0% in July, from 1.8% in the three months to June. Coming after the weaker than expected orders number yesterday the numbers cast a shadow over the German growth projections for Q2, even if confidence data suggest a rebound with August numbers.


    Canada: Strong growth prompted the BoC to increase rates another 25 basis points in September, leaving the overnight rate target at 1.00%. The back to back rate boosts in July and September cement an aggressive approach to removing policy stimulus as the expansion broadens and becomes increasingly self-sustaining. Downside risks remain, notably on the global stage, but the base-case scenario for growth and inflation points to a determined path upward for the Bank’s rate target, with further hikes seen in October and December. The BoC’s aggressive decision to hike rates 25 bps to 1.00% jolted the markets.


    US Reports: a strong services ISM outcome, which bounced to 55.3 from an 11-month low of 53.9 in July but a higher 57.4 in June and 56.9 in May, versus a 16-month high of 57.6 in February. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index bounced 1.4 points to 55.3 in August after falling 3.5 points to 53.9 in July. This was the best since June’s 57.4, just off the 57.6 print from February which was the best since the 58.1 reading from October 2015. Meanwhile, U.S. Markit final August services PMI rose 1.3 points to 56.0 after edging up 0.5 points to 54.7 in July (and it compares to the 56.9 preliminary August print). It was 51.0 a year ago. This is the best reading since November 2015. Overall a solid report.


    Main Macro Events Today


    ECB Conference – The September meeting will bring updated set of staff projections but likely no change in policy setting. After strong survey data over the summer, the short term growth forecast could well be upgraded, but with EURUSD turning out to be much stronger than assumed in the June projections the strong currency will leave its mark on the inflation forecast. Forex and bond markets remain very sensitive to tapering speculation and that will likely see the ECB moving extremely carefully going ahead especially as geopolitical risks have picked up further. Indeed, that the ECB will lay out a full schedule for the phasing out of asset purchases this year seems increasingly unlikely and while officials still start to debate changes to policy parameters at the September meeting, a decision is unlikely to come before October.


    ECB Rate Decision & GDP- Prior ECB Conference Rate and GDP will be released which both expected unchanged, at 0.00% and 0.6% respectively.


    US Jobless Claims- Revised Q2 productivity should post 241K from 236K last week, and unit labor costs should show productivity bumped up to a 1.3% clip from 0.9% previously, while unit Labor Costs should be nudged down to a 0.2% pace from 0.6%.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  6. #266
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    Date : 8th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 moving higher and a rally in Chinese companies helping to lift the MSCI Asia Pacific index to rise to the highest level since 2007. Japan and South Korea in particular are under pressure though, amid fears of a missile attack from North Korea on Saturday. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down. European stock and bond markets were underpinned by Dovish surprisingly cautious rhetoric yesterday, but the DAX closed down from earlier highs and it remains to be seen whether the Draghi effect can shelter Eurozone stocks from fresh risk aversion. And after Italian and Portuguese 10-year yields dropped more than 10 bp yesterday, we are likely to see some stabilisation in yields as markets continue to dissect Draghi’s comments from yesterday, which highlighted growing unease with the strong EUR. The calendar trade data from Germany and the U.K. as well as production data from the U.K. and France.


    FX Update: USDJPY has led broader dollar declines amid a mix of bearish drivers, including year lows in U.S. Treasury yields, risks for a further ratcheting up in North Korea tensions as the rogue nation nears nuclear ICBM capability, and the dollar-bearish narrative being generated by Hurricane Irma’s track to Florida and the south east U.S., and the fallout form Hurricane Harvey. USDJPY clocked a 10-month low of 107.63. The pair has shed 2.2% so far this week, which is the biggest movement on our currency comparison grid. Trend support comes in at 107.08-10. EURUSD, meanwhile, rallied sharply to a 33-month peak at 1.2092, since settling modestly lower into the London interbank market open. The narrow trade-weighted USD index logged a 32-month at 90.99. The dollar has also seen fresh declines against the Canadian and Australian dollars, and other commodity units, and has traded mixed-to-softer versus most emerging market currencies. More of the same looks likely into the weekend, when Irma will hit the U.S. and when there is risk of more geopolitical-rattling antics from North Korea.


    Germany: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 19.6 bln in July, down from EUR 21.2 bln in the previous month, as export growth of just 0.2% m/m, was dwarfed by a 2.2% m/m rise in imports. Unadjusted data show a surplus of EUR 19.5 bln, up from EUR 19.1 bln in July last year and bringing the total of 2017 so far to EUR 141.8 bln, down from EUR 148.4 bln in the seven months to July last year. This is nominal data, but the rise in imports also shows that the stronger EUR is underpinning import demand.


    EUR In Focus As ECB Prepares For October Decision On QE: The ECB left policy parameters unchanged and elevated the concerns on exchange rate developments, which were already apparent at the last meeting, but yesterday became a key issue in the introductory statement, alongside growth and inflation outlooks. Indeed, the statement as well as Pres. Draghi’s comments during the Q&A session confirmed that the exchange rate and its impact on the inflation outlook will be a big part of the discussion in October, when the ECB is likely to decide on the policy parameters for next year.The ECB said that economic expansion is solid and broad based, but stressed that the recent gains in the euro has become a source of uncertainty that requires monitoring.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK Production data –The day brings the July production. July production data has us expecting 0.3% m/m growth in the industrial output figure.


    RBA – RBA Gov Lowe is due to speech at the Bank of China Sydney Branch’s 75th Anniversary Celebration Dinner.


    Canada employment – A 30.0k gain in total jobs during August is expected in today’sreport, which would follow the 11.0k rise in July. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.3%, matching the reading in July. The expansion in total jobs has not come alongside a run-up in earnings growth — compensation cost growth remains very tame. The BoC left some wiggle room in this week’s announcement, saying future policy decisions are not “predetermined,” being guided by incoming data. This report, and the Q2 capacity report, are the first of the incoming data. As expected results would underpin expectations for at least one more 25 bp hike this year, perhaps as soon as October.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  7. #267
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    Date : 11th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    The French term “force majeure” literally translates as “greater force,” a legal clause that is included in contracts to remove liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes. Looking ahead to the aftermath of back-to-back major hurricanes on both the Gulf and Florida coasts, there may be no escape from the human and economic disruption inflicted on those regions but also the economic wreckage that is likely to make studying the economic outlook more of a dismal science near-term. In addition, Equifax’s cyber attack and data breach of 143 mln credit monitoring customers represents another potentially chilling temporary hit to economic and financial well being. In addition, ongoing North Korea brinkmanship, recent Trumpian bipartisanship, the gold surge/dollar index collapse to post-election levels and skidding yields, all smack of a perfect storm for the Fed into the September 19-20 meeting.


    United States:The U.S. economic calendar starts off fairly leisurely, building with inflation data by midweek and followed up with flurry of retail, Empire, production, inventory and U. Michigan sentiment data Friday. The CPI is expected to post respective gains of 0.3% and 0.2% for the headline and core figures for August. Retail sales are estimated edging up 0.1% overall, and up 0.5% ex-autos. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in August, but estimates ranged from 0.6% to -0.6%. NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Next are the MBA mortgage series (Wednesday), EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August (Wednesday) from -$42.9 bln. CPI will be a focal point (Thursday), forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k (Thursday) following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.


    Canada: In Canada, this week is all about housing, with four reports distributed across the week. August housing starts (Monday), are expected to edge lower to a 220.0k pace from 222.3k in July. The Teranet/National Bank HPI for August is due Wednesday. The July new housing price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.2% m/m after the matching 0.2% gain in June. Existing home sales for August are expected on Friday. The “Bank of Canada’s Re-Examining the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Towards the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal Workshop” will take place on Thursday. Looking further ahead, Deputy Governor Lane delivers a speech on September 18, while Governor Poloz speaks on September 27.


    Europe: With the ECB decision on the future of asset purchase deferred until October, and no data releases scheduled that could change the outlook decisively, this should be a relatively quiet week, leaving markets to focus on geopolitics. Asset purchases will continue at the current pace until the end of the year and even if Draghi announces in October that purchase volumes will be scaled back from January, the fact that the ECB’s balance sheet continues to expand and that the central bank remains extremely reluctant to commit to an end data for QE means monetary policy should remain accommodative for some time to come and rate hikes are unlikely to become an issue before 2019. Data releases this week mainly focus on final inflation readings for August and are not expected to bring a major surprise, with higher oil and food prices the main reasons for the uptick in headline rates. The German HICP (Wednesday) expected to be confirmed at 1.8% y/y, the Spanish headline rate (Wednesday) to come in at 2.0% y/y and final French and Italian numbers (Thursday) to confirm preliminary readings of 1.0% y/y and 1.4% y/y respectively. The data calendar also has Eurozone industrial production data for July. Events include a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday.


    UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcing Thursday). No change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%.Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday). The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016. Monthly labor data covering July and August is also due (Wednesday), while official retail sales data for August is also due (Thursday), and a tepid growth of 0.2% m/m is anticipated after 0.3% in the month prior.


    New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is again sparse in terms of top tier data. August food prices are due Wednesday, which may be of minor interest. GDP for Q2 is due on the 21st of this month. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next on September 28, in which no change to the current 1.75% rate setting through year-end, is expected.


    Japan: In Japan, July machinery orders (Monday) are seen rebounding 4.0% m/m from the 1.9% drop in June. previously. This would be the first increases in three months. The July tertiary industry index (Monday) is expected up 0.2% m/m from unchanged in June. This service sector index has increased only once so far this year, climbing 1.4% in April. The September MoF business outlook survey (Wednesday) is forecast to improve to 5.0 from -2.9. August PPI (Wednesday) should heat up to 2.9% y/y from 2.6% previously. Revised July industrial production will be released on Thursday. The preliminary reading fell -0.8% versus June’s 2.2% increase.


    China: China August industrial output (Thursday) is pencilled in at a 6.5% y/y clip from 6.4% after gains in the manufacturing PMIs. August fixed investment is likely to have slowed to an 8.1% y/y rate from July’s 8.3%. August retail sales should accelerate to a 10.6% y/y pace from 10.4% previously.


    Australia: a thin calendar is highlighted by employment (Thursday), expected to reveal a 20.0k gain in August after the 14.0k rise July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.6%, matching the 5.6% in July. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Guy Debelle speaks at a Workshop at King & Wood Mallesons, Sydney (Thursday).


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  8. #268
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    Date : 12th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight, as North Korea jitters continue to ease and risk appetite returns. Hurricane Irma seems to have caused less damage than some feared and while Irma and Harvey will leave their mark on the U.S. economy, markets once again quickly settle down. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a fourth day and the Nikkei gained 1.20% so far, with U.K. and U.S. stock futures also moving higher. The buoyant mood on equity markets will keep European yields underpinned after yesterday’s broad move higher. Yields remain at relatively low levels, and mostly clearly below the average seen over the past three month. The downtrend that has been in place since the middle of July remains intact. The local calendar today is highlighted by U.K. inflation numbers ahead of the BoE meeting on Thursday and Data this week will be highlighted by the August inflation report (Tuesday).


    FX Update: The dollar carved out new rebound highs during the Asia session. USDJPY continued to lead the way as markets react to a sense of reduced risks stemming from North Korea and Hurricane Irma, with the former having refrained from further missile testing and the latter now having weakened to a tropical storm rating while tentatively proving to be less damaging than feared to the U.S. mainland. USDJPY logged a one-week high at 109.58, which is over two big figures up on Friday’s low at 107.31. EURUSD clocked a three-session low at 1.1945. The dollar has since come off from its highs, while USDCAD ebbed to a two-session lows just under 1.2100. With a good chunk of the pre-weekend risk-off positioning having been reversed, and with the likelihood of further sabre-rattling antics from North Korea as the rogue nation draws nearer to nuclear ICBM capability, we don’t recommend following the dollar rebound, especially in the case of USDJPY. Sterling markets will have UK inflation data today, where we expect the headline CPI rate to lift to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%.


    New Zealand: The NZDUSD spiked up around 40 pips on the latest opinion poll results from NewsHub-Reid as reported by Reuters today morning, with an increase up to 0.7274. The National Party seems to be on the lead with 4% rise up to 47.3%, while Labour Party fell 1.6% down to 37.8%. These results seem to be against the recent increasing popularity we saw for Labour Party. The elections are due on September 23.


    Canada: Stocks and yields surged as risk appetite came back into play. Canada underperformed in both markets, with the jump in the S&P/TSX only half that of Wall Street and most indexes in Europe. The rise in GoC yields also was smaller than in the U.S. though a little larger than in Europe. The loonie see-sawed but finished little change on the day. Housing starts were the only item on the calendar, and did not have any lasting impact on the market.


    IMF’s Langarde and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met this morning in Beijing along with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and other Heads of global Organizations. As Reuters reported, Chinese Premier stated earlier that “There are increased positive factors in the global economy and signs of warming-up in some aspects. But at the same time, the fragility persists and unstable and uncertain factors are still increasing,” hence he believes that Free trade can be consider as a good way for resolving any issues raised on recovery procedure and will also help Companies transform and give variety of option to consumers as well. Meanwhile he also address in his speech, the China’s economy growth, by saying that growth seen in the 1st half will be continue.Mrs Christine Lagarde on the other side mentioned that despite the fact that the global economy is recovering, it could easily be derailed by policy uncertainty and the threat of protectionism.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK Inflation data – The headline CPI rate expected to pick up to 2.8% y/y from 2.6% in July. Such an outcome would be consistent with BoE projections, which policymakers see as a temporary period of above-2%-target inflation, having been induced by the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the vote to leave the EU in in late June 2016.The Core PPI expected to pick a bit at 2.5%y/y from 2.4% y/y.


    US JOLTS – NFIB small business optimism and JOLTS job openings are due today and expected to fall at 104.8 from 105.2 and 5.96M from 6.16M respectively


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  9. #269
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    Date : 13th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: The global stock market rally lost some momentum during the Asian session. Japanese markets still moved higher, after Wall Street posted record highs, but the Hang Seng saw profit taking as the index neared a key resistance level and developers and financial stocks came under pressure. CSI 300 and ASX 200 are posting slight gains, but U.K. and U.S. stock futures are in the red, and investors may need a catalyst before pushing things further. The European calendar has final inflation data from Germany and Spain, U.K. labour market data and Eurozone production numbers. After yesterday’s higher than expected U.K. inflation reading, U.K. wage growth in particular will be in focus as the BoE starts its 2 day meeting ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement.


    FX Update: The dollar rebound rally has lost gas, with EURUSD edging out a two-day high and the buck trading softer versus sterling, the Australian dollar, among others, although USDJPY still managed to eke out a 12-day high. The dollar had been shorted into the weekend, when concerns about the impact of Hurricane Irma and fresh ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions were at an apotheosis, and driving the rebound on Monday and Tuesday had largely been an unwinding of this positioning. This now seems to have run its course. Global stock markets seem to have seen a similar dynamic. EURUSD has recouped to the upper 1.19s after basing yesterday at a four-session low at 1.1926. Cable, which had a fire lit beneath it by yesterday’s above-forecast UK CPI data, extended to a fresh one-year peak, this time at 1.3315. USDJPY, meanwhile, clocked a 12-day high at 110.29. EURJPY posted a 20-month high at 132.01, reflective of the under-performance in the yen..


    German August HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.8% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and up from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. The breakdown confirmed that a renewed pick up in energy prices was largely to blame for the uptick in the headline rate, with prices for heating out rising 10.4% y/y in August, compared to just 5.4% y/y in July and 0.9% y/y in June. Petrol price inflation equally jumped higher. Energy aside annual food price inflation as well as higher prices for clothing and shoes underpinned the uptick in the HICP rate, which leaves the German number pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability. For the Eurozone as a whole though price developments are still looking more muted and with the strong EUR adding to downward pressure on prices the ECB remains very cautious as it prepares for another reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK ILO Unemployment & Average Earnings – Monthly labor data covering July and August is due today, where it is expected that the July ILO unemployment rate edging down to a 42-year low rate of 4.4% after 2.5% in June, though average household income growth is expected to remain relatively benign, at sub-inflation levels for 2.3% y/y in the three months to July, and at 2.1% y/y in the ex-bonus figure.


    EU Industrial Data – Eurozone industrial production data for July expected at 3.4%y/y from 2.6% y/y.


    US PPI and EIA Oil – Today we also have the MBA mortgage series, EIA and PPI, which is set to rebound 0.3% in August from -0.1%, while the core reading is seen up 0.2% from -0.1%. The Treasury budget gap is expected to widen to -$131.0 bln in August from -$42.9 bln.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  10. #270
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    Date : 14th September 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets declined amid profit taking. Markets have come quite a way up from recent lows and it seems investors need another catalyst before taking things further. The Nikkei is down -0.25%, the Hang Seng lost -0.62% so far and U.K. and U.S. futures are also in the red ahead of today’s SNB and BoE announcements. Both central banks are widely expected to keep policy on hold, but the BoE’s statement in particular will be watched carefully after this week’s higher than expected inflation number. Gilt yields moved higher yesterday, while the FTSE 100 closed in the red, despite slight gains on other European stock markets. Bund yields also moved up slightly but closed below the 0.4% mark and so far at least it seems the ECB is successful in dampening the impact of its move towards a further reduction in monthly asset purchase volumes, even though yields should have bottomed out. Central bank meetings aside, the European calendar has plenty of ECB speak as well as final inflation data from Italy and France. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance came in higher than anticipated.


    China: China’s retail sales today morning, industrial production and fixed investment were disappointing in August. Retail sales slowed to a 10.1% y/y pace in August from the 10.4% rate of expansion in July. But year to date retail sales growth was 10.4% in August, matching July. Industrial production growth was 6.0% y/y in August versus the 6.4% rate in July. But year to date production dipped to 6.7% from 6.8%. Fixed investment (excluding rural households) slowed to a 7.8% y/y growth pace in August from 8.3% in July. But foreign direct investment did improve to a 9.1% y/y pace in August from 2.3% in July, after contracting 3.7% in May and falling 4.3% in April. The CSI 300 is 0.1% firmer, the Shanghai comp is also 0.1% in the green while the Shenzhen comp is up 0.2%.


    Australia: The employment surged 54.2k in August following a revised 29.3k gain in July (was +27.9k). The increase was more than double expectations. The details were strong – full time jobs grew 40.1k after a revised 19.9k drop (was -20.3k) while part time jobs improved 14.1k following a 49.1k rise (was +48.2k). The unemployment rate was 5.6% in August, matching the rate in July. The participation rate rose to 65.3% in August from 65.1%. AUDUSD jumped to 0.8015 from 0.7975 on the report, and has edged slightly lower to 0.8006.


    US reports: a 0.2% August U.S. PPI headline with a 0.1% core price increase undershot estimates thanks to a lean 0.1% service price increase, with a flat trade service figure and a 0.3% gain for transportation and warehousing services. We saw the largely expected figure for goods prices, with a 3.3% energy price rise and a 1.3% food price drop that left a 0.5% rise for the goods component overall. It is tentatively expected a hurricane-led 0.5% PPI rise in September with a 0.2% core price increase thanks to a pop in gasoline prices and an assumed rise in service prices. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.6%, after rising to 2.4% in August from 1.9% in July, while the y/y core PPI rises to 2.1% from 2.0% in August and 1.8% in July. Oil prices have largely moved sideways in 2017, though we’ve also seen a drop in the dollar and a stronger global economy that has boosted commodity prices, after the opposite 2016 pattern of dollar and oil price gains, but global growth weakness. Upward 2017 price pressure has been limited by the absence of an inventory recovery despite a petro-rebound that is trimming excess capacity.


    Main Macro Events Today


    SNB announcement– The Swiss central bank will publish the latest quarterly policy review today and is widely expected to keep key policy settings unchanged. Officials have welcomed reduced pressure on the CHF, but still see volatility in forex markets and with the ECB inching only very gradually towards the end of QE and geopolitical risks on the rise again, the SNB is firmly on hold. as it watches developments in the Eurozone and Brexit negotiations.


    BOE announcement – September BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting is due today, in which no change outcome is expected, albeit with the two dissenters from the previous two meetings, Saunders and McCafferty, repeating their votes for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to reverse the post-Brexit “emergency” cut and return the repo to 0.5%. Not much change is anticipated in the tone of the guidance from that delivered in August, when the central bank was able to expand its view in its quarterly inflation report, which brought downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts. The market consensus is for the BoE to refrain from change policy settings until 2019.


    US CPI & Unemployment Claims – CPI will be a focal point today, forecast to rebound 0.3% in August from a 0.1% reading in July, while core should remain subdued at 0.1%; on a core y/y basis CPI should remain in the 1.7% area, well shy of the Fed’s 2.0% target. Initial jobless claims may retrace their steps -8k to 290k following the 62k surge to 298k after Harvey, before being distorted again by Irma’s impact, making a wreck of underlying employment trends for some time to come.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

 
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