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  1. #231
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    Date : 22nd July 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd July 2017.






    FX News Today


    Both the ECB and BoJ met expectations as each left policy unchanged last week, though the outlook for ECB remains under the dark cloud of future QE tapering, while the BoJ gave up the ghost on its inflation target near-term. The FOMC is set to follow suit and kick the policy can down the road this week, though the markets will remain highly attuned to any hints over the outlook on inflation, the economy, and the balance sheet unwinding timing/


    United States: In the U.S., the FOMC is not likely to make any policy changes at the July 25-26 meeting. The slowing in inflation is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, there has been some speculation the Fed could announce the start of QT (quantitative tightening) this week. The economic calendar resumes with existing home sales (Monday) forecast to rise 0.4% to a 5.64 mln unit pace in June. Various May home price indices are due (Tuesday), including the Case-Shiller and FHFA readings. Consumer confidence is also on tap (Tuesday), but expected to slip to 117.0 for July from 118.9, while the Richmond Fed index is seen steady at 7. The MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday), along with the EIA energy inventory report and new home sales may decrease 2.5% to a 595k pace in June. Durable goods orders are forecast to snap back 2.7% in June vs -0.8% in May (Thursday). Advance Q2 GDP should be boosted to 2.6% from 1.4% in Q1 (Friday), given upside risk on consumption, while Q2 ECI is forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.8% and final Michigan sentiment may be revised up to 93.5 from 93.1 previously. Fedspeak continues to run silent into the FOMC decision midweek before Minneapolis Fed’s dovish dissenter Kashkari breaks the ice with a moderated Q&A Chamber of Commerce event from 13:20 ET (Friday)


    Canada: In Canada GDP for May (Friday) is the centerpiece of this week’s calendar. An 0.2% m/m gain is projected for May, which would match the 0.2% increase revealed in April. An as-expected improvement in May GDP would leave real GDP growth on track for a roughly 3% gain following the 3.7% surge in Q1, which would match the BoC estimate for Q2 GDP and hence be supportive of the already widespread projection for a near tear rate hike. Wholesale trade (Monday) is seen improving 0.7% after the 1.0% gain in April. The report typically has little lasting impact on the market, but will be the final input into the May GDP projection. May average weekly earnings and the CFIB’s Business Barometer index of small and medium sized business sentiment are both due on Thursday.


    Europe: The ECB went into the summer break with a parting shot that once again acknowledged stronger growth while stressing that substantial monetary accommodation remains necessary and that inflation is not where the ECB wants to it see yet. This week brings the first key GDP readings for Q2 and French growth seen steady, while Spanish growth is expected to come in unchanged at 0.8% q/q. A robust second quarter would tie-in with improved confidence indicators, although looking ahead, it may feel as though that is as good as it gets for now, with July confidence indicators expected to fall back slightly. A decline in the manufacturing PMI to 57.2 expected and a marginally better service reading of 55.4 which would leave the July composite PMI unchanged at 56.2. Risks are to the downside though, considering the second consecutive dip in German ZEW investor confidence and as the euphoria over Macron’s election victory fades and political risks ease. July Eurozone Economic Confidence is expected to have eased to 110.9 from 111.1 in June.


    Inflation, meanwhile, remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability and July preliminary HICP readings from Germany, France and Spain are likely to indicate that this won’t change soon. Growth forecasts may have been revised up, but inflation forecasts are being scaled back with the latest surge in the EUR doing nothing to change the picture that a strong currency and weaker than projected oil prices will keep headline inflation subdued.


    UK: The calendar this week features the first release of Q2 GDP (Wednesday), which it is expected to rise 0.3% q/q and by 1.7% y/y, which would follow respective Q1 figures of 0.2% and 2.0%. The quarterly pace of growth likely remained relatively lackluster in Q1 compared to growth in the Eurozone and the U.S., and the same picture looks likely to be painted again this quarter. Weakness in sterling following the Brexit vote last June has fed a secular rise in UK inflation, which in turn has eroded household incomes and consumer spending, which in recent years of government austerity has been the main driver of the economy. Other data releases include the CBI’s July surveys, with the industrial trends report (Tuesday) seen ebbing to 11 in the headline total orders reading after 16 in the prior month, while the distributive trades report (Thursday) is expected to fall to a reading of 10 in the headline realized sales figure after 12 in June.


    Japan: Japan’s docket gets under way on Wednesday, with June services PPI due. Prices expected at 0.5% y/y versus the previous 0.7% outcome. The remainder of the calendar comes on Friday, starting with CPI data. June national prices are seen slowing to 0.3% y/y from 0.4% overall, and up 0.3% y/y from 0.4% on a core basis. June unemployment is seen falling a tenth to 3.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is expected at 1.50 from 1.49. June personal income and PCE are due, with the latter forecast to have risen 0.5% y/y from -0.1% previously. June retail sales are penciled in at a 0.5% y/y rate from -0.6% for larger retailers, and up 3.0% y/y from 2.1% overall


    Australia: In Australia, the Q2 CPI (Wednesday) takes center stage given the global focus on inflation. The latter was discussed at the July 4 policy meeting. Trade prices (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% in Q2 (q/q, sa) for imports and falling 6.0% for exports. The Q2 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy (Wednesday) form Sydney.


    New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has June trade (Wednesday), expected to reveal a NZ$150 mln surplus following the NZ$103 mln surplus in May.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.





    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #232
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    Date : 23rd July 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved sideways, fluctuating between gains and losses ahead of the Fed meeting. Asia’s equity benchmark remains near the highest level since 2007, and the ASX managed a nearly 0.9% gain so far, despite a stronger AUD as oil prices moved higher. The Fed is likely to remain on hold this week and could push out further action on rates, but markets are still cautious, with U.S. stock futures also moving sideways, although the FTSE 100 future is managing gains, as the pound retreats. The EUR meanwhile is on the rise again and Mersch’s comments on reflation and his more optimistic view on inflation and growth could also see fresh pressure on Bund futures. The 10-year cash yield already moved up from lows in late trade yesterday and closed above 0.50% and indeed, while Draghi may have been eager to calm nerves ahead of the summer, tapering is still on the agenda for next year.


    US Data: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI jumped 1.2 points to 53.2 in the July preliminary print after falling 0.7 points to 52.0 in June. It was 52.9 a year ago. This is a 14th consecutive month of expansion. Also, the bounce breaks a string of declines going back to the start of the year after the gauge hit 55.0 in January, reflecting increased momentum as the second half of the year begins after the slowing in Q1 and Q2. The index hit a recent low of 50.7 in May 2016. The preliminary July services index was unchanged at 54.2 after rising 0.6 points in June 53.6 in May. It was 51.4 a year ago. It’s a 17th straight month of expansion and has been fairly stable in the 53.5 area all year since hitting a high of 55.6 in January. Employment rose to 54.4 from 52.8 previously and is the highest reading since December. Prices charged fell. The flash composite index rose 0.3 points to 54.2 in July from 53.9 in June and is the highest reading since January. It was 51.8 a year ago. Employment and new orders improved.


    SNB’s Jordan: CHF still significantly overvalued. The central bank head said in an interview with Le Temp, conducted last week and published late yesterday that this means the SNB is sticking with its policy of low interest rates and intervention on forex markets if needed. Jordan added that inflation remains low with production capacity not fully exhausted. He stressed that the central bank still has enough room to manoeuvre to expand the balance sheet if necessary. The USDCHF was relatively unmoved and trades at 0.9464 down from overnight highs of 0.9476


    FX Update:. Narrow ranges have been the order of the day so far, with a combo of a dearth of fresh directional cues, summertime thinness, and the looming proximity of the Fed’s policy announcement (tomorrow) fostering a noncommittal market. USDJPY dipped back under 111.00, reflective of a broad though moderate bid in the yen, which has been seen since just after the Tokyo fix. Stock markets in Asia have seen little direction. EURUSD has continued to oscillate around the 1.1650 level for a second day, holding below the 23-month high at 1.1684 that was pegged in the Asia session on Monday. AUDUSD continued to consolidate the sharp gains the pair saw last week. Cable has remained buoyant above 1.3000, though off yesterday’s four-session peak at 1.3058.


    Main Macro Events Today


    German Ifo Business Climate – After yesterday’s disappointing July PMI readings, the German Ifo index tomorrow also comes with a risk to the downside. We had been looking for a drop to 114.9 (med same) from 115.1 in the previous month, but the risk is that the headline number comes in even weaker. Like the PMIs, the Ifo reading is likely to remain at high levels, indicating a robust start to Q3, but after what looked like another strong quarterly growth rate in Q2 it seems with regard to survey indicators this may have been as good as it gets. That doesn’t mean the recovery is abandoned or at risk, but the euphoria that seem to hit sentiment in the wake of the Macron victory is giving way to a more sober assessment. The good news though is that the PMIs point to ongoing improvements on labour markets, so companies continue to invest into the recovery and while the data will back Draghi’s reluctance to commit to QE just yet, it is clear that monthly asset purchases will be scaled back with the new program that will start next year.


    US Consumer Confidence – June Consumer Confidence is expected to fall to 117.0 from 118.9, this compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decrease in the Michigan headline and Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines. Confidence continues to benefit from reduced gasoline prices and is now experiencing a post-election lift.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.





    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #233
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    Date : 26th July 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th July 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Positive leads from the U.S., including corporate earnings, and broad-based gains in commodities helped the global stock move higher to continue in Asia overnight at least in the first part of the session. The CSI 300 is in the red, however, and the Hang Seng underperforming with a meagre 0.17% gain, and Japanese markets are down from early highs while FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are in the red. So, some caution is settling in again ahead of the Fed announcement today with some speculation that the Fed could announce the start of quantitative tightening as early as today. In Europe, the ECB is still far away from reducing its balance sheet, and while QE tapering is on the cards for 2018, Nowotny yesterday argued against committing to an end to asset purchases. Today’s calendar focuses on the first reading of Q2 GDP from the U.K, while all eyes will be on the Fed’s post FOMC meeting announcement and guidance. The big question is whether the central bank will detail plans to unwind QE, though we think not as inflation data has been benign and there hasn’t been any rhetorical prepping by members for such a policy shift since the issue was brought up at the June policy meeting.


    Australia: Earlier today, the Aussie dollar took a rap following sub-forecast CPI data out of Australia, which came in at 1.9% y/y in Q2 versus the median forecast for 2.2% y/y, while the underlying rate remained stubbornly below the RBA’s target range. AUDUSD is just off its lows, at 0.7884 bid presently, showing a 0.7% decline on the day as the London interbank market take to their seats. The Aussie is showing a similar magnitude of decline versus the yen and euro, too.


    U.S. reports: revealed upside July surprises for both consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed, alongside a firm but largely seasonal 0.8% May rise for the S&P Case Shiller. For consumer confidence, we say a July pop to 121.1 from 117.3 (was 118.9) that left this measure at its strongest level since the 16-year high of 124.9 in March, with a rise in the current conditions index to a 147.8 new cycle-high, despite drops in other July confidence measures. For Richmond Fed, we saw a rise to 14.0, after revisions that lifted recent levels to 11.0 (was 7.0) in June and 3.0 (was 1.0) in May, versus a 7-year high of 19.0 (was 17.0) in February. This increase bucked declines in other producer sentiment measures, though the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys should still tick down to 55 in July from 56 in June, 55 in May, 56 in April, and a 57 cycle-high in February and March. Nevertheless, yesterday U.S. Senate voted to move ahead on repealing Obamacare. Initially fifty GOP senators voted yes, with two voting no, for a total of 50, while not a Democrat voted for the measure. Hence Vice president Mike Pence as Reuters reported, forced to cast the tie-breaking vote. The EURUSD had retreated from 1.1712 highs, after failing to take out the August 2015 high of 1.1714. Profit taking out of London had reportedly been in play, with the pairing dipping to 1.1657 lows.


    ECB’s Nowotny against committing to end date for QE: Nowotny said in an interview yesterday that he considers it “wise to step of the gas slowly”, adding that “the U.S. central bank also implemented tapering without committing to a definite timetable”. The QE program currently runs until the end of the year and the ECB iw widely expected to reduce monthly purchase targets again with a follow up program, but Nowotny’s comments suggest that the ECB may not yet lay out a full-time table for a final end to QE and indeed given Draghi’s very cautious stance so far, it seems more likely that the ECB won’t commit to a fixed data for the end of QE. The IMf also urged the ECB to maintain stimulus as underlying inflation and wage growth remains weak and with inflation expected to ease again next year, Draghi seems to have room for a gradual approach.


    German Jul Ifo index unexpectedly jumped to 116.0 from 115.2. Expectations had been for a slight correction in the headline reading, especially after Monday’s disappointing PMI readings. The breakdown showed that the overall improvement was entirely due to a sharp rise in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward-looking expectations index stagnated. So the message is not unlike that of the PMIs, which showed ongoing robust growth, but a slowdown in the pace of expansion. A strong German Ifo figure, upbeat ECBspeak and the release of the BoJ minutes from the mid-June meeting all failed to stir markets, with participants looking to tomorrow’s policy announcement and communication from the Fed as the next key risk event. The yen has been following its often-seen inverse correlation with global stock markets, which have been mostly buoyant this week, underpinned by incoming corporate earnings and guidance, yesterday’s record print in the latest German Ifo indicator, and expectations for the Fed to affirm its slow-go approach to tightening following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today. The minutes from the BoJ’s mid-June policy meeting, released yesterday, meanwhile showed that members discussed the idea of QE tempering, but were still worried about the persistence of well below target inflation.


    Main Macro Events Today


    FOMC – FOMC began day 1 of its 2day meeting. No major changes are expected in Wednesday’s announcement (14 ET). The Fed is widely expected to leave its 1.00% to 1.25% rate band in place due to the slowing in inflation. Committee members have also indicated they want more evidence of a pick-up in growth after the disappointing 1.4% Q1 pace, though recent data should be fulfilling that need.


    US Home sales, MBA & EIA – The MBA mortgage market indices are due today, along with the EIA energy inventory report and new home sales may decrease 2.5% to a 595k pace in June, down from 610k in May.


    UK GDP – The calendar features the first release of Q2 GDP, which expected to rise 0.3% q/q and by 1.7% y/y, which would follow respective Q1 figures of 0.2% and 2.0%. The quarterly pace of growth likely remained relatively lackluster in Q1 compared to growth in the Eurozone and the U.S., and the same picture looks likely to be painted again this quarter. Weakness in sterling following the Brexit vote last June has fed a secular rise in UK inflation, which in turn has eroded household incomes and consumer spending, which in recent years of government austerity has been the main driver of the economy.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    Last edited by HFblogNews; Today at 11:59 AM.

  4. #234
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    Date : 27th July 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th July 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: The Fed’s reluctance to commit to a time for QT beyond “relatively soon” and the fact that the Fed appeared to be moderately more concerned that the decline in inflation pressures could be a little more durable than previously thought has given bond as well as stock markets a fresh boost. Equities moved mostly higher in Asia overnight (China’s CSI 300) once again a notable exception, with commodities still underpinned as oil prices hold clearly above USD 48 per barrel. Bund futures already jumped higher in after hour trade yesterday and European stock futures are rising in tandem with U.S. futures, pointing to broad gains on European markets at the start. ECB’s Nowotny may have repeated his support for reduced asset purchases again, but that the ECB will start to taper next year is pretty much expected and Nowotny yesterday urged caution when the ECB starts to “take the foot of the gas”. Today’s calendar has Eurozone M3 and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey.


    German GfK consumer confidence surges to record high of 10.8 from 10.6 in the previous month. The unexpected jump higher ties in with record Ifo readings and confirms that the German recovery remains firmly on track. More arguments for the ECB to take the “foot off the gas” and reduce monthly asset purchases. The full GfK breakdown, which is only available until July showed also falling price expectations though, alongside improved economic confidence and the willingness to buy dipped despite a sharp drop in the willingness to save. Hence, some mixed signals and somethings for the doves, who continue to fret about low inflation and wage growth.


    FOMC: held rates steady and gave no firm date on the balance sheet unwind. However, the policy statement did indicate the run-off will begin “relatively soon,” versus this year in the June statement, though it basically reiterated comments from Fed Chair Yellen in her recent testimony. The decision was unanimous. The Fed said the economy has been rising moderately while job gains have been “solid.” On inflation, the Fed said overall and core prices have “declined and are running below 2 percent; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.” Inflation developments will continue to be monitored “closely.” One important change versus the June statement was the elimination of word “recently,” referring to the decline in inflation, suggesting there’s some concern the weakening will be more long lasting.


    U.S. reports: revealed rise in MBA mortgage market index at 0.4%, alongside a 2.2% drop in the purchase index and a 3.4% rise in the refinancing index for the week ended July 21. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sank 5 basis points to 4.17% after yields drifted lower last week with Europe. Also, U.S. new home sales edged up 0.8% to 0.610 mln in June. That follows the 4.9% rebound to 0.605 mln in May after the 9.6% April drop to 0.577, for a net -27k revision. New home sales hit a cycle high of 0.638 mln in March amid mild winter weather and hopes for Trump stimulus. The months’ supply of homes moved up to 5.4 from 5.3. The median sales price declined 4.2% to $310,800 following the 4.8% rise to $324,300 in May. Prices are down 3.4% y/y in June versus a 9.6% y/y gain previously.


    Main Macro Events Today


    US Durable goods, Jobless claims – Durable goods orders are forecast to snap back 3.0% in June vs -0.8% in May, while the advanced trade gap may narrow to-$65 bln from -$66.3 bln and initial jobless claims are set to rebound 8k to 241k for the week ended July-22.


    UK CBI distributive trade & Gfk – The distributive trades report is expected to fall to a reading of 10% in the headline realized sales figure after 12% in June.The GfK Group Consumer Confidence index is expected to fall to a reading of -11 after -10 in June.


    Japanese Data – The calendar features the CPI data. June national prices are seen unchanged at 0.4% overall, and same for a core basis. June unemployment is seen falling a tenth to 3.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is expected at 1.50 from 1.49. June personal income and PCE are due, with the latter forecast to have risen 0.6% y/y from -0.1% previously. Lastly, June retail sales are penciled in at a 0.1% y/y rate from -0.6% for larger retailers, and up 2.3% y/y from 2.1% overall..


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  5. #235
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    Date : 28th July 2017.


    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th July 2017.






    FX News Today


    European Outlook: Risk appetite turned negative during the Asian session, with equity markets, including U.S. index futures, turning lower from record highs. This backdrop will likely put pressure on EGB yields from the open. The European calendar today features a flood of data releases, highlighted by advance Q2 GDP figures out of France and Spain, and preliminary inflation figures for July from various key economies out of the Eurozone, which will be a big focus for markets given the ECB’s course to taper QE. French HICP is expected unchanged at 0.8% y/y, and German HICP is seen at holding at 1.5% y/y, which would also be unchanged from the previous month. Data in line with our expectations would not likely elicit much market reaction. The Eurozone also has the latest business climate survey for July, where the headline is expected at 100.9, down from 111.1 in the previous month.


    FX Update: The Swiss franc tumbled for a four-straight session, driving EURCHF to a 1.1363 high, a level not seen since the SNB abandoned its former 1.2000 floor in January 2015. USDCHF, meanwhile, rallied to a one-month peak, at 0.9721. The price action affirms the sentiment sea-change that’s been afoot this week, underpinned by a combo of a more confident euro outlook coupled with a -0.75% deposit rate in Switzerland. Elsewhere, EUR-USD has been playing a narrow range in the upper 1.16s, roughly a big figure below the 30-month high that was seen yesterday at 1.1776. USDJPY settled back near 111.00, a level that has seemingly been exerting gravitation pull over the last week or so, with attempted rebounds failing to sustain during the week. The six-week low seen on Monday at 1110.62 remains in the frame. A tumble in equity markets, with Asian bourses and U.S. equity index futures down today, provided the yen some support. A flood of data out of Japan were mostly encouraging, though CPI remained low, with the BoJ-monitored core figure coming in at just 0.4% y/y, unchanged from May and meeting the median forecast.


    U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises for the durable goods and advance indicators reports for trade and inventories that boosted Q2 GDP estimates to 3.0% from 2.6%, though another lofty initial claims reading suggests that auto retooling is unlikely to boost this year’s July data. For durables, we saw a 6.5% June orders pop thanks to a 19.0% Boeing-led transportation orders surge, though we saw a 0.2% ex-transportation rise that tracked estimates. The report was robust thanks to strong equipment data. For the advance indicators, we saw an export-led $1.0 bln upside June trade surprise and big 0.6% June gains for both wholesale and retail inventories. Initial claims rose 10k to 244k in the fourth week of July, leaving what is now a 242k July average, following similar prior averages of 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April. The July nonfarm payroll forecast remains at approximately 190k.


    Main Macro Events Today


    U.S. GDP & ECI – The first release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal a 2.6% headline for the quarter following a 1.4% pace in Q1. Consumption looks poised for stronger growth during the quarter and expected a 1.2%, up from 2.4% in Q1. Q2 employment cost data expected at 0.6% headline that follows a 0.8% clip in Q1. This would have the y/y pace of growth at 2.3%, down from 2.4% in Q1. Wages and salaries as well as benefit costs are both expected to expand at a 0.5% clip for the quarter from 0.8% and 0.7% respectively in Q1.


    Prel. German Inflation – Eurozone inflation remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability and July preliminary HICP readings from Germany, France and Spain are likely to indicate that this won’t change soon. We see headline readings unchanged from June at 1.5% y/y in Germany, 0.8% y/y in France and 1.6% y/y in Spain, which would point to a steady Eurozone reading (due next week) of 1.3% in July.


    Canada GDP – GDP is expected to improve 0.2% m/m in May after the 0.2% improvement in April. An 1.1% rise in May retail sales volumes followed a 1.1% rise in manufacturing volumes. There was a 0.8% gain in wholesale shipment volumes during May. But housing starts tumbled to 195.0k in May from 214.8k in April, suggestive of a negative contribution from construction. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is negative. Energy export values fell 9.0% m/m in May after growing 3.9% m/m in in April.


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    Hot-Forex



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