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Thread: US Dollar

  1. #1
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    US Dollar

    US dollar jumped to two and a half month high against major rival euro after Fed chief Janet Yellen hinted the possibility of a rate hike in June if economy continues to grow. Data last week showed that the US first quarter growth increased. US dollar became strong on Fed chief Janet Yellen's comments on a possible rate hike in next meet if the economy and employment sector continues to show steady growth. Higher rates are positive for the dollar because they make the U.S. currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The Fed Reserve increased interest rates in December last year for the first time in almost a decade. The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 0.8% in the three months to March, up from the initial estimate of 0.5%. The euro fell to the lowest level since mid-March against the dollar, with EUR/USD down 0.71% at 1.1115 late Friday.

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    US dollar kept steady against major rivals near 2 months highs on imminent rate hike expectations after Fed chief Yellen's speech earlier last week. Euro dropped to a low of $1.1097 before bouncing back from its lowest in nearly three months. On the other hand Japanese Yen strengthened to 110.80 on stellar industrial production data from Japan. British pound remained unchanged at $1.4650, dropping from $1.4738 last week. The sterling has been supported in recent weeks by polls showing that Britons are leaning toward voting to remain in the European Union at next month's referendum. The Australian dollar looks set to become the worst performer among so-called G10 currencies this month, having declined 5.4 percent, after the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cut early this month started a fresh downtrend.

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    US data released on Tuesday was mixed. The U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.3% in April, in line with consensus estimates. The Core PCE Index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, ticked up 0.2% from March's reading, one month after experiencing slight gains of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the core reading rose by 1.6% unchanged from the previous month. Personal Consumption Expenditure came as consumer spending surged 1.0% on the month, considerably above a downwardly revised flat reading from March. At the same time, personal income increased by 0.4% on the month also line with analyst's forecasts. While inflation has firmed somewhat in recent months, it has stubbornly remained under the Fed's 2% targeted objective for the majority of the last three years.

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    US dollar had a bad day against major rivals with mixed US data worrying investors about Fed's interest rate hike hope in June. ISM reported that manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 51.3 in May from 50.8 in April, compared to expectations for the index to tick down to 50.4 with new orders index dipping from 55.8 in April to 55.7 and the employment index was flat at 49.2. The final reading of the Markit manufacturing PMI came in at 50.7, better than the preliminary estimate of 50.5, but below Aprils reading of 50.8. A separate report showed that U.S. construction spending fell 1.8% in April, the largest monthly decline since January 2011. Now attention is focused on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for May for fresh indications on the strength of the labor market. The dollar remained sharply lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 1.19% at 109.37.The yen strengthened earlier after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he was planning to delay a scheduled sales tax hike by two-and-a-half years, amid ongoing weakness in the economy. EUR/USD was up 0.39% at 1.1174, while GBP/USD lost 0.44% to trade at 1.4417.

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    US dollar dropped more than 1% against major rivals after the release of weak US employment data on Friday. The soft economic data hurts the interest rate hike sentiments, shaking the confidence for the rate hike in next FED meet in June. Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 38,000 jobs in May, far below expectations for an increase of 164,000. The economy created 123,000 jobs in April, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated gain of 160,000. The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index fell to 52.9 last month from 55.7 in April. It was the weakest reading since February 2014. Analysts had expected the index to drop to 55.5. The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a more than eight-year low of 4.7% last month from 5.0% in April, compared to expectations for a downtick to 4.9%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% in May, in line with expectations. The dollar was lower against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USD up 0.57% at 1.4505 and with USD/CHF declining 1.32% to 0.9772. USD/JPY lost 1.81% to 106.89, the lowest since May 6.

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    Speaking at the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia, Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided the best possible indication that the central bank is likely to hold steady in this month’s meeting. The Fed chair gave a broadly positive outlook for the US economy, saying that it had made impressive gains since the crisis and that positive forces supporting job growth and inflation should outweigh negative ones, supporting arguments for gradual increases in short-term interest rates in future.
    However, she called for caution as she described Friday’s job report, disappointing and highlighted the uncertainties ahead, which include British referendum on EU. In a previous speech, she said she expects to hike rates over next few meetings, she had maintained her silence on Monday over that.
    The focus this week will be on the market’s appetite for the U.S. dollar and comments from ECB President Draghi. The greatest volatility has and will continue to be in sterling as we head into the U.K. referendum. There is a handful of U.K. economic reports scheduled for release this week ranging from industrial production and the trade balance but the polls will drive the currency's performance. Sterling´s latest decline was driven by the results of a survey from the Daily Telegraph that found 69% of subscribers polled favored leaving the European Union.

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    US dollar dropped near a month's low against major rivals Tuesday on FED chairman Janet Yellen's speech. Although she didn't outright waived off the interest rate hike speculation, the investors gathered enough information from the speech to conclude that a chance for rate hike in June is very remote. EUR/USD kept steady at 1.1362, near Monday’s three-week highs of 1.1392. The dollar was lower against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USD up 0.94% at 1.4578 and with USD/CHF sliding 0.40% to 0.9666. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 1.22% at one-month high of 0.7455 and with NZD/USD advancing 0.75% to 0.6972.
    The remarks came after data on Friday showing that the U.S. economy added just 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since September 2010. The disappointing data ruled out chances for a June rate hike and prompted investors to push back expectations on the timing of the next rate hike until later this year. Yellen indicated on Monday that the U.S. central bank won’t be raising interest rates until uncertainty over the economic outlook is resolved.

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    The dollar continued its declines against major rivals as uncertainty over next interest rate hike seems to continue amongst investors. EUR/USD gained 0.38% to fresh three-week highs at 1.1401. The dollar was lower against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USD up 0.13% at 1.4562 and with USD/CHF retreating 0.63% to 0.9592. USD/JPY dropped 0.54% to 106.80.The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.17% at a one-month high of 0.7471 and with NZD/USD climbing 0.60% to 0.7019.
    U.K. Office for National Statistics earlier said that industrial production rose 2.0% in April after a 0.3% increase in March, the largest monthly increase since July 2012. Manufacturing output rose 2.3% after a 0.1% increase in March, in what was also the fastest monthly increase since July 2012. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD up 0.17% at a one-month high of 0.7471 and with NZD/USD climbing 0.60% to 0.7019. Elsewhere, USD/CAD slid 0.45% to 1.2681, the lowest since May 3. Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday that building permits fell 0.3% in April, disappointing expectations for an increase of 1.5%.

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    The dollar jumped against major rivals on thursday on stellar US jobless data that put the missing optimism back in the investors. EUR/USD declined 0.72% to 1.1313 and USD/JPY dropped 0.50% at 106.45. The dollar weakened earlier in the week, as markets pushed back expectations on the timing of the next rate hike by the U.S. central bank after Friday’s dismal employment report for May, which showed the slowest rate of jobs growth since September 2010.
    The U.S. Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending June 4 decreased by 4,000 to 264,000 from the previous week’s total of 268,000, which was revised up from the initial read of 267,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 3,000 to 270,000 last week.
    Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned Thursday that uncertainty over the future of the euro is holding back progress in the region. The comments came during a speech at the Brussels Economic Forum. The dollar was higher against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USD down 0.30% at 1.4462 and with USD/CHF climbing 0.68% to 0.9656.

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    The dollar posted a weekly gain against the euro as traders weighed upcoming risks, including next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the potential for a U.K. exit from the European Union. The U.S. currency rose for the fifth time in the past six weeks against the common currency. The U.S. currency climbed 0.6 percent against the euro to $1.1251 as of 5 p.m. The yen rallied on haven demand after a poll showed the campaign for Britain to leave the EU took a 10 percentage-point lead.
    une 24 will be a day of superlatives for the pound, whichever way Britain votes. The day after next week’s referendum on European Union membership, the pound will either sink to the lowest level in more than three decades or climb toward the highest this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Most see a drop below $1.35 if Britons decide to leave the bloc on June 23, while the median estimate following a victory for the status quo is for it to jump to as high as $1.50. Sterling plunged to its lowest since April against the dollar on Friday after a poll showed the ‘Leave’ campaign taking a 10 percentage-point lead. Subsequent polls have shown a more balanced contest, with many voters still undecided.

 

 
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