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Thread: EUR USD

  1. #631
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    AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – RBA Minutes, New Zealand GDP on Tap This Week

    The Australian and New Zealand Dollars could start the week under pressure due to reports of additional U.S. tariffs on China. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing individuals familiar with the matter that President Trump is planning to impose a fresh round of tariffs targeting about $200 billion in Chinese goods.
    The Australian and New Zealand Dollars rose last week. The currencies were driven higher by a weaker U.S. Dollar. The catalysts behind the bullish price action were optimism over U.S.-China trade relations and weaker-than-expected U.S. producer and consumer inflation data.
    For the week, the AUD/USD settled at .7155, up 0.0049 or +0.69% and the NZD/USD finished at .6546, up 0.0012 or +0.19%.
    The Aussie was also supported by strong domestic employment data. The government reported the Australian economy added 44,000 jobs in August in seasonally adjusted terms, well above forecasts of an 18,000 gain. Overall participation levels edged higher, which left the unemployment rate steady at 5.3%. Quarterly data on the underemployed, fell by 0.3% to 8.1%.
    The good news helped drive up Australian bond yields which made the Australian a more attractive investment, at least temporarily. However, it was not good enough to sway Reserve Bank of Australia policy. The fall in underemployment is considered a positive sign, but the RBA is waiting for consistent growth in wages before it will consider a rate hike.
    The AUD/USD and NZD/USD gave back some of its gains on Friday in reaction to rising U.S. Treasury yields ahead of a widely expected Fed rate hike later this week. The price action was driven by upbeat U.S. retail sales and consumer confidence reports. A report that President Trump told his aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports also rattled investors.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...orex-forecast/




  2. #632
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    Bitcoin – Bitcoin Bucks the Trend Early. Will Institutional Money Help?
    Bitcoin sees red early, giving gains from the start of the day. A move back through to $6,500 will be a must to support an afternoon rebound.
    Bitcoin bucked the trend across the broader market by ending in the red on Sunday, with a 0.2% fall that partially reversed Saturday’s 0.5% gain. Bitcoin ended the week at $6,500, gaining 3.92% to partially reverse the previous week’s 14.3% slide.
    A choppy start to the day saw Saturday’s late in the day reversal continue into the early hours of Sunday, with Bitcoin falling through the day’s first major support level at $6,461.47 and second major support level at $6,410.23 to an intraday low $6,370.2 before recovering back to $6,500 levels.
    Through the 2nd half of the day, Bitcoin slid through the first major support level at $6,461.47 to an afternoon low $6,413.8 before breaking back through to $6,500 levels by the day’s end.
    While the news wires were relatively silent through the weekend, supporting the net gains for Bitcoin and the broader market, focus is beginning to shift to the next phase of the cryptomarket movement, institutional money.
    For now, Bitcoin continues to be touted as the primary beneficiary, which looks to be an accurate assessment, with financial institutions recently announcing plans to provide their clients with products to gain Bitcoin exposure, the announcements coming in the wake of Goldman Sachs’ decision to hit pause on launching its Bitcoin desk.
    Whether the influx of institutional money will lead to a resurgence of Bitcoin’s dominance remains to be seen, though the reality is that such a limited product offering to an asset class will likely see existing cryptocurrency investors shun altcoins in favour of Bitcoin, drawn by the anticipated inflow of institutional money.
    Does that mean that the cryptomarket is still some way off performing based on product offering and success in the real world?
    It would certainly seem so. The focus on Bitcoin seems little different to banks offering a single stock such as Alphabet Inc. to their institutional clients in place of a full listing of U.S equities, though with one distinct difference. Bitcoin’s perceived success as an alternative to fiat money is limited at best, with other true cryptocurrencies offering far more competitive transaction speeds and fees that could ultimately topple the likes of PayPal and even Visa. Alphabet Inc. on the other hand is the parent of Google.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...currency-news/

  3. #633
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    EUR/USD Back to Key Resistance as the Nikkei Breaks Out Ahead of BoJ

    Talking Points:
    – Global equities remain on the move and the Nikkei has broken out from a big level of resistance over the past few trading days, adding a bit of resolution to an ascending triangle formation that’s been building over the past few months. Later tonight/early-Wednesday brings a Bank of Japan rate decision with very few expectations for anything new. Will the BoJ provide any hints or clues towards future changes towards their QE policy that just so happens to buy ETF’s of the very same indices that have been breaking out ahead of the meeting?
    – In FX-land, the week started with haste but has since calmed, as both EUR/USD and the US Dollar are holding at key areas on the chart. In EUR/USD, prices have returned to the big resistance zone that we’ve been following that runs from 1.1709-1.1750. Bulls don’t look to soon let up, so at this stage a resistance break is starting to feel more likely. In the US Dollar, on the other hand, prices have built into a descending triangle formation as the Dollar continues to sit on support.

    EUR/USD BACK TO CONFLUENT RESISTANCE: WILL BULLS FINALLY BREAK FREE?

    At this point the primary hope is that EUR/USD is earning frequent flyer miles for all of these trips back to resistance, as we’re now seeing the third such visit to this zone over the past three weeks. We’ve been following the resistance area in EUR/USD that runs from 1.1709-1.1750; looking for a topside break to re-open the door to longer-term themes of continuation.
    This area had helped to hold the highs in the latter-portion of July, but it also contains multiple Fibonacci levels in the same range. This is a confluent area as there are multiple reasons for sellers to come-in and respond, and that’s largely what we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks. But following each response, we’ve seen an increasingly strong response from bulls as buyers have started to come-in at higher-lows. On the chart below, we’ve added a blue bullish trend-line underneath the higher-lows that have printed over the past week, following last week’s support test at the 1.1530 level.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/



  4. #634
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    Bitcoin – Are We In For Another Tumble?

    Another range bound start to the day for Bitcoin as investors consider the SEC’s next Bitcoin ETF application decision. It could get choppy later…
    Bitcoin continued to recover from Monday’s losses, rising by 0.97% off the back of Tuesday’s 1.31% gain to end the day at $6,395.7.
    A particularly range bound morning and early afternoon saw Bitcoin steer clear of the day’s major support and resistance levels, a lack of direction through the first half of the day leading to a slide through the day’s first major support level at $6,246.73 and second major support level at $6,159.47 to a late evening intraday low $6,100 before finding support.
    An almost immediate bounce back saw Bitcoin break though the day’s first major resistance level at $6,402.63 and second major resistance level at $6,471.27 to an intraday high $6,549.9 before pulling back to sub-$6,400 levels late in the day.
    The choppy 2nd half of a day came off the back of mixed crypto news hitting the wires, with the negative news including reports of a Japanese cryptocurrency exchange being hacked and a UK Treasury Committee report concluding that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are ill-suited for retail investors and are in dire need of regulation.
    While the UK may not be of the largest crypto jurisdictions, the possibility of other jurisdictions considering the report content is a negative, particularly when considering the fact that the vast majority of cryptocurrency investors are high net worth individuals and retail investors, the existence of high net worth individuals in the market coming off the back of the ascendancy of Bitcoin and other cryptos.

    On the positive side, news of Fidelity Investments looking to launch Bitcoin products by the end of the year was a positive, other reputable asset managers likely to follow suit, supporting capital inflows into the market.
    With the sentiment skewed towards the negative, focus remains on the next SEC decision on a Bitcoin ETF application and the G20’s anticipated rollout of unified rules and regs that continue to drive volatility, which in itself could be construed as a negative for a market that is looking for institutional money to come pouring in, the SEC unlikely to approve products for institutional money until the year’s persistent volatility abates.
    At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.19% to $6,402.9 to buck the broader market trend, with Bitcoin moving through to an early morning $6,420 high before easing back to a morning low $6,382.2, the moves through the early part of the day leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...currency-news/



  5. #635
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    Dollar Support Kicks in as Market Risk Appetite Sinks

    Trade war jitters return, weighing on the equity markets and commodity currencies, Trump’s 2nd general assembly speech tomorrow of little comfort.
    Earlier in the Day:

    There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning, with China and Japan on holiday, leaving the markets to consider geo-political headwinds and key events and stats scheduled for the week, along with the rollout of tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods later today.
    At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was flat at ¥112.59, pinned back by a stronger U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar and the Kiwi Dollar also in the red, risk aversion at the start of the week hitting the pair as trade war jitters return to the markets ahead of Trump’s address to the General Assembly at the UN on Tuesday.
    In the equity markets, the ASX200 was down 0.27%, with over half of the 200 listed in the red in at the start of the week, sliding mining and metals stocks doing the damage early on, an rally in crude oil prices providing little support. Things were not much better for the Hang Seng that opened down 1.07%, the shift in sentiment hitting the tech sector once more, with Tencent down 1.5% at the open, with bank stocks also seeing heavy losses early on.
    The Day Ahead:

    For the EUR, key stats scheduled for release are limited to August business sentiment numbers out of Germany. The Ifo Business Climate Index is forecasted to soften, with both the Business Expectations and Current Assessment numbers also forecasted to be on the softer side, which would be in line with recent stats out of Germany that have disappointed.
    Outside of the numbers, ECB President Draghi is scheduled to speak this afternoon that could influence direction should any references be made to policy, Draghi having skirted the subject in speeches following the latest ECB press conference.
    At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.03% to $1.1745, with today’s stats and Draghi to provide some direction, while risk sentiment will likely be the key driver through the day.
    For the Pound, it’s a quiet day on the data front, with stats limited to CBI Industrial Trend Order figures for September that are forecasted to be Sterling negative. While we can expect a reaction to the numbers, stats are likely to continue to be overshadowed by market sentiment towards Brexit, the British Prime Minister meeting the cabinet later today for the first time since last week’s Austrian debacle.
    Outside of the stats the BoE Financial Stability Report due out later this morning will also provide some direction, as the FCP identifies key risks to the global and UK economies, with the prospects of a no-deal exit from the EU likely to be a key component of the report released by the FCP. With BoE Governor Carney amongst the Committee members, it may not be pleasant reading if his last session with Cabinet ministers is anything to go by…
    At the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.08% to $1.3083 with Brexit and the BoE’s Financial Stability Report the key drivers for the day.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/category/forex-news/






  6. #636
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    US Dollar Presses Recent Low But Lacks the Punch

    US Dollar tests recent lows just below 94, but cannot punch through with force. The Elliott Wave counts are mixed so be mindful of a rally.
    The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from September 24, 2018. We focused on the Elliott Wave and patterns for Dollar Index, EURUSD, NZDUSD, Gold, and Silver. The patterns may subdivide into complex corrections though we are anticipating another round of round of dollar weakness over the medium term.
    DOLLAR INDEX TESTS 3 WEEK LOW

    US Dollar Index keeps probing its recent lows. The jury is still out as to whether this is circle wave ‘c’ lower or a complex circle wave ‘b’ that will shoot higher to finalize. With DXY yet to meaningfully break 93.63, we need to respect the potential for circle wave ‘b’ to continue higher and retest 95.25 and possibly 96. Otherwise, a meaningful break below 93.63 opens the door to 93.26 and possibly 91.72.
    The bearish view is valid so long as dollar index holds below 96.98.

    EURUSD ELLIOTT WAVE CHART POINTS TO MULTI-MONTH RALLY

    he EURUSD chart is the opposite of DXY. The upper key level is 1.1862. Until a meaningful break of this level occurs, we are considering the move higher as a ‘b’ wave. This suggests a correction lower in a ‘c’ wave to 1.1550 and possibly 1.1450.
    Since August 20, we have been anticipating a multi-month rally in EURUSD as the Elliott Wave from February 2018 concludes. If EURUSD does drop to 1.1550, then we will be looking for bullish symptoms as an ensuring rally may drive it above 1.18 towards 1.20-1.22.
    Sentiment has certainly fed a movement higher in EURUSD as traders dropped from being 41% long to 37% long earlier today. This is not a meaningful move either way to offer clarity to the patterns.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/



  7. #637
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    XTREAMFOREX DAILY NEWS

    AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar drifts lower ahead of FOMC

    The Australian dollar drifted a little bit lower ahead of the FOMC meeting, as we continue to see a lot of choppiness. This is a marketplace that continues to be erratic, and of course is affected by a lot of different moving pieces.
    The Australian dollar pulled back significantly during the day after initially trying to rally overnight ahead of the FOMC. The market looks likely to remain very difficult to navigate, because we do have the problems with the Sino-American relations, as it has a direct influence on the Australian economy. Australia is highly sensitive to what happens with China, but with the uncertainty it’s difficult to put a lot of faith in the Aussie. I also recognize that the US dollar has the benefit of several interest rate hikes ahead of it, so that should help the downside as well. At this point, if we break down below the 0.72 level, the market is likely to go looking towards the 0.7150 level next. That’s an area that has been important and giving that up opens the door to the 0.70 level.
    Above, I see massive resistance at the 0.7350 level, an area that has been supportive and has seen a lot of selling pressure. Because of this, I think that the upside is somewhat limited in the Australian dollar, and as because of that it’s likely that the easiest trade is to take exhaustive rallies as an opportunity to short. I believe that ultimately this market will drift lower, but if we get a somewhat dovish statement out of the FOMC somehow, that of course would change everything. With interest rates rising in the United States, it makes sense that the US dollar continues to be rather strong.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...orex-forecast/



  8. #638
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    Gold Price Prediction – Prices Drop as The Dollar Rallies

    Gold prices tumbled on Thursday, as traders buoyed the dollar following Wednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. What was clear from the Fed decision is that looking forward the Fed will continue to raise rates until 2020. When rates hit 3.375%, the Fed believes they will have hit neutrality. As the yield differential moved in favor of the greenback, the dollar rose weighing on the yellow metal. Since gold is priced in dollars, a strong dollar makes gold less attractive in other currencies. US pending home sales disappointed as supplies rose but not where demand is available.
    Technical Analysis

    Gold prices dropped on Thursday hitting a fresh monthly low, as the dollar gained traction. Target support on the yellow metal is seen near the August lows at 1,160. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,198. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...orex-forecast/



  9. #639
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    EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – EUR/USD Likely to be Bullish

    The pair has been trying to find a bottom and if and when it manages to do that, we should see the dollar weakening.
    Over the last few weeks, we have been seeing the rise and rise of the US dollar and the seeds of this rise had been sown during the first half of the year. For those who are closely associated with the markets, they would have seen this coming for the past few months and they would be glad that it is upon them as of this point. But the fall in the value of the EURUSD has not been very strong or hasnt been unidirectional at any point of time over the last few months.
    EURUSD Strong Fundamentally and Technically
    Rather than a quick fall, what we are seeing is a slow drip downwards and it has to be said that the Euro has managed the situation quite well as it continues to trade above the 1.10 region and continues to punch above its weight. The pair seems to be forming a base around the 1.15 to 1.16 region and on the daily chart, we can see that the pair is trying to form a large head and shoulders formation with the head being in the region that the prices were on August 15. This shows that there is a scope for the bullish momentum to build as we head into the last part of the year as long as the shoulders continue to hold in this formation.
    On the fundamental side, things are pretty much clear for the USD in the days ahead and we believe that most of that has already been priced into the markets. The US has already shown its hand as far as the trade wars are concerned and also, we have seen that the Fed has been hiking rates in the same way that the market has been expecting it to do so. So it is clear that the markets are looking for something more from the Fed and the US and that can only lead to disappointment. So, we believe that the tide will turn in due course of time and that will provide an opportunity for the bulls to make a comeback with respect to the fundamentals as well.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...orex-forecast/

    Continue Reading





  10. #640
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    Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 02/10/18

    It’s positive start to the day, while Ripple’s XRP gives up some ground early, investors locking in profits from the September rally.
    Bitcoin Cash Sees an Early Rally

    Bitcoin Cash gained 0.83% on Monday, partially reversing Sunday’s 1.32% fall, to end the day at $535.7.
    An early move through to an intraday high $544 was the only bullish move of the day, the day’s high coming up short of the first major resistance level at $550.7, before easing back. Holding on to $530 levels through the rest of the morning, Bitcoin Cash was hit by an early afternoon sell-off that saw Bitcoin Cash fall to an intraday low $519 before recovering to $530 levels, the day’s low steering clear of the first major support level at $514.6.
    At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was up 2.68% to $547.5, a bullish start to the day seeing Bitcoin Cash rally through the first major resistance level at $550.7 to an early morning high $554.2 before easing back.
    For the day ahead, a move back through to $550 levels would support a run at the day’s second major resistance level at $557.9 to bring $560 levels into play, though for any break through the second major resistance level, the news wires will need to be crypto friendly.
    Failure to move back through to $550 levels could see Bitcoin Cash hit reverse later in the day, a fall through $533 bringing a morning low $528.7 into play, while we would expect Bitcoin Cash to steer clear of the first major support level at $521.8 barring materially negative news hitting the wires.
    Litecoin on the Move

    Litecoin fell by 1.39% on Monday, following on from Sunday’s 0.6% loss, to end the day at $60.2, the fall marking a 4th consecutive day in the red and 8 days in the red out of the last 10.
    Tracking the broader market, Litecoin fell from a start of a day intraday high $61.8 to an early afternoon intraday low $59.22 before finding support at the day’s first major support level at $59.57, Litecoin managing to break back through to $60 levels by the day’s end.
    At the time of writing, Litecoin was up 1.36% to $61.04, with Litecoin recovering from an early morning low $59.91 to a morning high $61.3, the early moves leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
    For the day ahead, a move back through the morning high would bring the first major resistance level at $61.59 into play, with a hold on to $61 levels through to the early afternoon raising the prospects of a break back through to $62 levels later in the day before any pullback.Failure to hold on to $61 levels through the morning could see Litecoin give up the morning gains, a move back through $60.4 likely to bring sub-$60 levels and the day’s first major support level at $59.01 into play, any more material decline in the hands of the news wires on the day.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...currency-news/








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