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Thread: EUR USD

  1. #571
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    GBP/JPY LACKING DIRECTION, UK CPI DATA ON THE DOCKET FOR TODAY


    • GBP/JPY indecisive in Tokyo trading.
    • UK CPI data due at 09:30 GMT today.

    GBP/JPY is stepping lightly in Asia markets, fidgeting around 150.42 following a flat Monday.
    The pair has had a rough go of things lately, closing lower or flat for six of the last seven trading days. With the threat of interest rate increases looming on the horizon, traders have been flighty and prone to fits of risk aversion, dumping equities and risk assets in order to pile into safe havens. With the UK showing steady upticks in economic growth and the Bank of England (BoE) preparing to begin tightening their monetary policy, the era of easy money for global markets is set to end, leaving risk appetite in a precarious position.
    The UK will be dropping their CPI data today at 09:30 GMT; a slight contraction in price growth is anticipated by market forecasts, with analysts calling for a 2.9% reading compared to the previous 3.0%.




    Last edited by Moderator; 02-23-2018 at 03:52 PM.

  2. #572
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    USD/JPY DROPS IN TANDEM WITH NIKKEI, WEAKEST SINCE NOV 2016


    • Tracks Nikkei 225, DXY lower.
    • Profit-taking ahead of the US CPI?

    The bears regained control after a brief recovery seen in the USD/JPY pair, now pushing the rates southwards in a bid to print the lowest levels since November 2016.
    USD/JPY headed to 107.00
    The spot is seen replicating the moves witnessed in Asia a day before, as risk-aversion seeps back into markets, with the Asian equities crumbling again alongside oil prices. Japan’s benchmark index, the Nikkei 225 sinks nearly 0.90% to 21,053 points while Treasury yields dive across the curve, in turn adding to the downslide.
    The major also faces a double whammy from broad-based US dollar weakness, as the buck tracks Treasury yields lower amid a sense of caution ahead of the key US CPI figures, which are likely to shape up the Fed’s rate hike outlook this year.
    Meanwhile, the JPY markets appear to have shrugged off the disappointment in the details of the Japanese Q4 GDP report, which showed that the preliminary Q4 GDP arrived at 0.1% q/q vs. 0.2% expected.





    Last edited by Moderator; 02-23-2018 at 03:52 PM.

  3. #573
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    USD/JPY – ASO’S COMMENTS KILL THE TECHNICAL RECOVERY


    • Yen regains bid after Aso talks down need for FX intervention.
    • USD/JPY drops 30 pips from 106.89.

    The technical recovery in the USD/JPY pair fell apart at 106.89 as the Japanese Yen picked up a bid after Japanese Finance Minister Aso played down the need for FX intervention.
    Speculation has been gathering pace that Yen appreciation may not go down well with the authorities in Tokyo. However, Aso’s comments indicate the policymakers are comfortable with the recent appreciation of the Japanese Yen.
    So, for the time being, the JPY bulls have little reason to fear. That said, the technical charts show oversold conditions. The daily RSI has hit the oversold territory. Further, risk reversals have diverged from the spot, indicating a drop in the premium claimed by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts (bearish bets).
    Also, the 10-year treasury yield continues to rise and more importantly the US stock market has remained resilient. Hence, caution is the name of the game for the JPY bulls.





    Last edited by Moderator; 02-23-2018 at 03:52 PM.

  4. #574
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    EURUSD Technical Levels - 23.02.2018
    EUR/USD has shown a decent recovery after a three-day continuous selling. The pair hits high of 1.23500 after ECB minutes meeting and once again started to decline from the high. It has declined till 1.22798 and is currently trading around 1.22965.
    ECB minutes showed that it was premature to signal policy normalization due to weak inflation. The policy divergence between Fed and ECB shows that dollar is expected to strengthen further.
    The pair is facing the near-term resistance of 1.2375 (20- day MA) and break above will take the pair till 1.2442 (61.8% Fibo)/1.2500. Bullish continuation can be seen above 1.2550.
    On the lower side, near-term support is around 1.2275 and any violation below will drag the pair to next level until 1.2200/1.2165. Minor weakness can be seen only below 1.2200.

  5. #575
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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics08:31 23.02.2018
    Recommendations:


    SELL 1.2205


    SL 1.226


    TP1 1.2095 TP2 1.1965


    On the daily chart EUR/USD, bulls are trying to return the pair within the upward channel. If they succeed, the pair will be able to continue rising as well as 161.8% and 224% targets of AB=CD patterns will be implemented. Vice versa, when fail, bears will be able to count on the activation of the “Broadening wedge” and “Double top” patterns. In this scenario, the possibility of the continuing correction in the direction of 1.2095 and 1.1965 is high.





    On H1 of EUR/USD, bears are going to break supports at 1.2235 and 1.2205.



  6. #576
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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    05:05 26.02.2018
    Technical levels: support – 1.2300; resistance – 1.2380.


    Trade recommendations:


    Buy — 1.2300/10; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2380; TP2 — 1.2450
    Sell — 1.2270; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2220; TP2 — 1.2180
    Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, Tenkan-sen is horizontal; the market is on the strong support of 1.2300.



  7. #577
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    EUR/USD Daily Analytics
    06:32 28.02.2018
    Technical levels: support – 1.2220; resistance – 1.2250.


    Trade recommendations:


    Sell — 1.2250; SL — 1.2270; TP1 — 1.2180; TP2 — 1.2110
    Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the lines are falling down; the market is on the 4W-lows and may go lower.



  8. #578
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    The EURUSD pair is trading in a narrowing wedge. At the moment, the pair is just below the middle of the range. The RSI is reasonably balanced around 50 and Momentum is non-existent. However, the pair dipped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average, a bearish sign.

    Support awaits at the round number of $1.2300 which provided support to the pair last week. The late March low of $1.2240 and the early April trough of $1.2210 are next.

    On the topside, $1.2340 is the 50-day SMA. Further above, $1.2413 was the high of the week. The late March high of $1.2480 is looming high overhead.

  9. #579
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    EUR futures: bearish mood prevails


    According to advanced figures - EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors scaled back their open interest positions by almost 3.8K contracts on Friday from Thursday- 508,084 contracts. On the other hand, volume rose by nearly 22K contracts.


    EUR/USD focused now on 1.2165/55


    EUR/USD’s recent leg lower has been accompanied by a persistent increase in volume.Choppy activity in open interest, leaving the door open for a continuation of the bearish trend with interim target in the 1.2165/55 band.

  10. #580
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    When are the German/ Eurozone flash PMIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?



    Overview of German/ Eurozone flash PMI


    Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the markets as well.


    The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI shows 56.1 for April, lower than previous month's reading of 56.6, and the Eurozone services sector is also expected to come in weaker at 54.6 in the reported month, down from 54.9 booked in March.


    The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is also expected to tick lower to 57.5 when compared to the final 58.2 result booked previously. While, the index for the services sector is expected to ease to 53.7 in April, against 53.9 last.


    How could they affect EUR/USD?


    A positive surprise in the manufacturing PMI reports could offer some respite to the EUR bulls, taking the EUR/USD pair back towards 1.2300 handle, above which the momentum could get extended towards 1.2350 intermediate hurdle en-route the key 1.2400 psychological mark.


    On the flip side, if the readings show a big-than expected drop, the spot could fall further towards the 1.2200 support area, below which a test of 1.2155 (Feb low) is imminent.


    About German/ Eurozone flash PMIs


    The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector.
    As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone.
    Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.





  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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