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Thread: EUR USD

  1. #641
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    Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rebound as Inflation Starts to Rise

    Gold prices moved higher on Tuesday despite a rally in the dollar. Gold prices surged against the Euro, as it appears that inflation is on the rise. Fed Chair Gerome Powell in a speech in Boston said that the Fed has been able to keep inflation in check by managing expectations. Amazon raise its minimum wage to $15 per hour on Tuesday which could be the large increase in wage inflation the Fed was finally looking for.
    Technical Analysis

    Gold prices moved higher rising up to trend line resistance that comes in near 1,208. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average near 1,196. Additional support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,182. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the black with a rising trajectory which points to higher prices.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...orex-forecast/



  2. #642
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  3. #643
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    Aussie Record Trade Surplus Does Little to Slow the Greenback

    The Dollar’s on a tear, only the Japanese Yen managing to hold on in the early hours, with a record trade surplus out of Australia doing little for the AUD.
    Earlier in the Day:

    Economic data released through the Asian session this morning was limited to trade August figures out of Australia
    For the Aussie Dollar, Australia’s trade surplus jumped from a revised A$1.548bn to A$1.604bn in August according to the ABS.

    • Imports were flat for the month, while exports rose by 1%, month-on-month.
    • The increase in exports was attributed to a 13% (A$229m) rise in the export of non-monetary gold and a 3% (A$134m) rise in the export of rural goods that were partially offset by a 1% (A$222m) fall in the export of non-rural goods.
    • On the import front, the import of capital goods rose by 9% (A$569m), which was offset by a 41% (A$289m) slide in the import of non-monetary gold and a 2% (A$264m) fall in the import of intermediate and other merchandise goods.

    The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70945 to $0.70994 upon release of the figures, before easing to $0.7093 at the time of writing, down 0.14% for the session, the jump in U.S Treasury yields offsetting any material upside from this morning’s stats.
    Elsewhere, the Japanese Yen, was up by 0.17% to ¥114.33 against the U.S Dollar at the time of writing, the Yen finding some support to partially recover from the overnight slide that came off the back of yet more impressive stats out of the U.S. For the Kiwi Dollar, a jump in U.S Treasury yields weighed, the Kiwi down 0.29% to $0.6495 at the time of writing.
    In the equity markets, the Nikkei was in the red, reversing early gains, down 0.22% at the time of writing, the index finding little support from the Yen’s slide to ¥114 levels against the Dollar and the overnight gains in the U.S equity markets, while the ASX200 also in positive territory, up 0.66% at the time of writing. For the Hang Seng, the slide continued early, the Hang Seng down 1.06%, with investors having nowhere to hide early on, trade war jitters continuing to weigh.
    The Day Ahead:

    For the EUR, there are no material stats scheduled for release through the day to provide direction for the EUR, leaving budget chatter from Italy and market risk sentiment to provide direction through the day.
    While upside for the EUR was reversed on Wednesday, following the U.S stats and hawkish FED chatter, uncertainty over what lies ahead on the budget side and Italy’s debt troubles will be a continued concern ahead of the Italy – EU showdown mid-month.
    At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.05% to $1.1472, the Italian Budget and noise from the Oval Office remaining the key risks to the EUR.
    For the Pound, it’s a quiet day on the data front, leaving the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter and news of the Tory Party Conference that ended on Wednesday.
    There’s been no good news of late for the Pound, with chatter out of France likely to upset the Pound further, any hopes of UK’s neighbour being supportive seemingly dashed as the French government look to prepare for Britain to depart the EU without a deal.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/






  4. #644
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    Dollar Rally Wavers Just after EURUSD’s Break and Before NFPs

    Talking Points:

    • The charge in US Treasury yields has spilled over to other countries, but this run should raise eyebrows amid an equity retreat
    • Risk aversion showed up in earnest during the Thursday’s US session, earning a key S&P 500 break and heavy EEM, HYG drops
    • Whether you prize volatility or are looking to avoid it, USDCAD will be the focal point of both countries’ NFPs and trade data.

    THE FIRST SIGNS OF SYSTEMIC RISK AVERSION

    While benchmarks US equity indices have lingered at record highs the past few weeks, the confidence these levels alone would inspire was undercut by a clear lack of progress in the projection of a sustainable bull trend. Through Thursday’s session, we saw the conviction that the S&P 500 and Dow would act as the guiding light of other wayward risk-oriented assets rupture. While all of the major US indices were under significant pressure, the most technically-engaging move was from the S&P 500. The speculative-favorite broke a rising trend channel support and very nearly called an end to a period of quiet calm that has supported the casual divergence between the country’s equities and most other speculative asset types. Though its intraday spill was hefty, the measure managed a late-in-the-day bounce that prevented the market from registering a 1 percent or greater loss on the day. That notches the tally slightly to 71 consecutive trading days for which the benchmark has not suffered a moderate loss in a single session – an uncommon distinction over the past decade of bull trend. What this index and US equities do next will carry heavy weight with the broader financial system. This segment of the market has managed to defy the strain experienced by virtually ever other speculative pacesetter I monitor. As I’ve said before, the S&P 500 and its close peers are the best measure of risk trends due precisely to their discrepancy. If sentiment is so corrosive that even *these* milestones are dropping, it sets the stage for a possible full-scale withdrawal.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/





  5. #645
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    NFP and Wage Growth Figures to Put the USD in the Spotlight

    Consumer spending in both Australia and Japan improved but not by enough to shift sentiment as focus shifts to U.S labour market stats.
    Earlier in the Day:

    Economic data released through the Asian session this morning included August household spending figures out of Japan and August retail sales figures out of Australia.
    For the Japanese Yen, August household spending impressed, with spending surging by 3.5%, month-on-month, coming in ahead of a forecasted 0.4% rise, whilst more than reversing July’s 1.1% slide. Year-on-year, spending jumped by 2.8%, which was better than a forecasted stall, following a 0.1% rise in July.
    The year-on-year increase in spending was attributed to a rise in spending on:

    • Education (+25%); transportation & communication (+15.1%); medical care (+7.1%) and housing (+6.4%), with increased spending also seen on clothing & footwear and furniture & household utensils.

    Dragging on spending, year-on-year, included a fall in spending on:

    • Culture & recreation (-4.1%); fuel, light & water charges (-1.8%) and food (-1.5%).

    The Japanese Yen moved from ¥113.866 to ¥113.884 against the Dollar upon release of the figures, before easing to ¥114.01 at the time of writing, down 0.08% for the session.
    For the Aussie Dollar, retail sales rose by 0.3% in August, which was in line with forecasts, whilst improving on July’s stall, according to figures released by the ABS.

    • 5 of the 6 retail industries recorded a rise in sales, with cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.7%) leading the way.
    • A rise in sales was also reported for clothing, footwear & personal retailing (0.8%); other retailing (0.4%), department stores (0.9%) and household goods retailing (0.2%).
    • Food retailing was reported to be relatively unchanged.

    The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70680 to $0.70754 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.7076 at the time of writing, flat for the session.
    Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar continued to struggle, down 0.05% at $0.6476
    In the equity markets, it was a mixed start to the day, the Nikkei and Hang Seng down 0.53% and by 0.1% respectively, weighed by the overnight losses in the U.S, while the ASX200 was up 0.3% to buck the trend early on, the big-4 banks finding support following the recent sell-off, .
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/






  6. #646
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    USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar falls apart against Japanese yen

    The US dollar fell hard to kick off the week against the Japanese yen as we see a lot of negativity, into the marketplace. Perhaps it is due to the trade situation between the United States and China, perhaps it is due to the Italian debt situation, or perhaps it’s due to just a general negativity.
    The US dollar has fallen rather hard against the Japanese yen to kick off the week, and a bit of a “risk off” situation. Ultimately, I think that the market will find a bit of interest and support at the ¥113 level, an area that has been important more than once. I also believe that we will eventually see the market participants continue to pay attention to the interest rate differential eventually, but we also recognize that there are a lot of “risk off” situations around the world. We are watching the Sino-American trade relations as per usual, and they are getting worse. However, I think eventually once things calm down we will probably see the value hunters continue to jump into this market. I believe at this point, standing on the sidelines and waiting for stability and perhaps a supportive candle will be the best trade that you can make. At this point, I have no interest in trying to short this pair, because there is far too much in the way of support underneath.
    I believe this point we continue to see a lot of noise in the market, but I think it makes sense that we sit on the sidelines and simply wait for the stability to come into the market, as it gives us an opportunity to pick up value as it presents itself. Ultimately, this is a market that focuses on stock markets and risk appetite in general, both of which are a bit soft at the moment.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...orex-forecast/














  7. #647
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    The Aussie and Kiwi Dollar Rally as U.S Treasury Yields Ease Back

    Economic data out of Asia give the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars some respite early in the day, while geo-political risk remains the key area of focus.
    Earlier in the Day:

    Economic data released through the Asian session this morning included September electronic card retail sales figures out of New Zealand, October consumer sentiment figures out of Australia and August machinery orders out of Japan.
    For the Kiwi Dollar, electronic card retail sales rose by 1.1% in September, following an upwardly revised 1.1% rise in August, according to Stats NZ.

    • Spending in the retail industries rose by 1.1%, with spending in the core retail industries also rising by 1.1%.
    • By industry, spending on consumables rose by 1%, on apparel by 0.9%, on durables and vehicles (excl. fuel) both by 0.8%, with 0.4% rises in spending on hospitality and on fuel.
    • Year-on-year, electronic card retail sales rose by 5.7%, easing back from a 6.3% rise in August.
    • For the 3rd quarter (q/q), spending in the retail industries rose by 2.3% and by 2.1% in the core retail industries.
    • In the 3rd quarter, the largest contributions to spending came from fuel (+3.4%), consumables (+2.4%), while spending on apparel dragged, with just a 0.1% rise.

    The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64713 to $0.64760 upon release of the figures, before rising to $0.6487 at the time of writing, up 0.20% for the session.
    For the Aussie Dollar, the Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose by 1% to 101.5 in October, the rise partially reversing September’s 3% slide to 100.5.

    • Negative sentiment towards falling house prices, rising mortgage rates and rising petrol prices had offset the positive effects of a tax cut earlier in the year, leading to a 5.2% fall in confidence in August through September.
    • Support at the start of the 4th quarter came from solid economic growth, labour market conditions and a recovery in certain mining states.

    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/



  8. #648
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    Geo-political Risk and U.S Inflation to Drive the Greenback

    While the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes and Brexit will be eyed, U.S inflation figures could have a far greater influence this afternoon.
    Earlier in the Day:

    There were no material stats released through the Asian session this morning, leaving the markets to consider U.S inflationary pressures following the release of wholesale inflation numbers on Wednesday ahead of this afternoon consumer price numbers.
    Other pressures continue to include the built-up tensions between the U.S and China and market concerns over what lies ahead for the Italian coalition and the much talked about budget that could get nasty should the coalition’s first budget be rejected.
    At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen stood at ¥112.19, up 0.07% for the session, with the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar finding support. The Kiwi Dollar was up 0.23% to $0.6464, with the Aussie Dollar up 0.14% to $0.7065, the pair having struggled amidst the ongoing geo-political tensions, with gains through the early part of Wednesday reversing as the day progressed off the back of upward momentum in U.S Treasury Yields and risk off sentiment across the global financial markets.
    In the equity markets, the cues came from Wednesday’s sell-off in the European and U.S majors, the Nikkei sliding by 3.21%, pressure coming from a rebound in the Yen alongside the rise in geo-political risks, with the ASX200 down 1.71%.
    For the CSI300 and Hang Seng, the pair followed in the path of the other majors early on, the Hang Seng opening down 3.05%, with the CSI300 down 3.11% at the time of writing, with the U.S futures showing little hope of a rebound from yesterday’s losses in the early part of the day.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/





  9. #649
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  10. #650
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    Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets take off to the upside

    Gold markets broke higher during the trading session on Thursday, reaching towards the $1215 level, an area that has been very important more than once. Overall, the market looks as if the buyers are pressing the issue, but the $1215 level has been very important in the past, so I think we have a significant fight on our hands above.
    Gold markets rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday, as precious metals in general got a bit of a boost. Pay attention to the US dollar, because we get significant weakness in the greenback, that should push the Gold markets higher. If we break above that level, the market probably goes to the $1220 level, perhaps even the $1225 level.
    Alternately, if we break down from here I think the $1205 level would offer significant support, and most certainly the $1200 level will be. Pay attention to the EUR/USD pair, it gives you a general idea of what is happening with the greenback, which of course has a major influence on gold. I think this is been more of a risk safety type trade, which we have seen in the past more than once. Overall though, I think that the market is a bit overextended, so it’s likely that a pullback would be necessary. However, if we can break out above the $1215 level, it could signal that fresh monies coming into the marketplace, and it could make a relatively impulsive move just waiting to happen. I like Gold longer-term, but quite frankly the US dollar has been so strong for some time, so I don’t think it’s going to be the easiest move to the upside, so certainly you need to use a bit of caution as you could be entering the trade a bit late here.
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    https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/category/forex-forecast/
















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