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Thread: GBP USD

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    GBP USD

    hi

    In this section Daily analysis will be inserted.

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    GBP USD

    hi

    In this section weekly analysis will be inserted.
    Last edited by PCMAnalyst; 06-20-2013 at 11:24 AM.

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    GBP USD

    hi

    In this section monthly analysis will be inserted.

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    The US dollar posted strong gains against the major currencies last week, and the pound was no exception, as GBP/USD shed over three cents last week. The pair closed the week slightly above the 1.54 line, at 1.5416. This week’s major events include the Inflation Report Hearings and Current Account. Here is an outlook of the events

    1- BBA Mortgage Approvals: Tuesday, 8:30. BBA Mortgage Approvals is a leading indicator of housing activity in the UK. The indicator has been slowly moving higher, registering 32.2 thousand last month. The markets are expecting another slight gain in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 33.1 thousand.

    2- Inflation Report Hearings: Wednesday, 9:00. High inflation continues to be a problem in the UK, as underscored by last week’s release of CPI and other inflation indicators. The BOE Governor Mervyn King and several MPC members will testify before the parliamentary Treasury Committee, and we could see some volatility from GBP/USD.

    3-BOE Financial Stability Report: Wednesday, 9:30. This report is released twice a year, and focuses on the stability of the UK financial system as well as areas in need of improvement. A report that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the pound.

    4- CBI Realized Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. This index is based on a survey of retailers and wholesalers who are asked to rate their sales volume. The index, which has been steadily dropping, slid to -11 points last month, its lowest level since January 2012. It has not been above the zero level, since the February reading. However, the markets are expecting a turnaround in the June reading, with an estimate of 4 points.

    5- Current Account: Thursday, 8:30. This key release is directly related to currency demand, as a higher surplus indicates that foreigners are purchasing more pounds for goods and services and other transactions. The indicator posted a higher deficit last month of -14.0 billion pounds, which was higher than the estimate of -12.8 billion. The markets are expecting some improvement in the upcoming release, with an estimate of -11.8 billion pounds.

    6- Final GDP: Thursday, 8:30. This quarterly release is a market-mover, and is eagerly awaited by the markets. The Q1 reading declined by 0.3%, which matched the forecast. The markets are expecting a turnaround in Q2, with an estimate of a 0.3% gain. Will GDP meet or beat this prediction?

    7- GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 23:01. This indicator continues to be mired deep in negative territory, pointing to deep pessimism, which in turns hinders consumer spending. The indicator posted a reading of -21 points last month, and little change is expected this time around.

    8- Nationwide HPI: Friday, 6:00. This housing inflation index is an important measure of activity in the UK housing market. The index bounced back nicely in the May reading, rising 0.4%. This was just shy of the 0.5% estimate. The forecast for the June release stands at 0.4%.

    9- Index of Services: Friday, 8:30. This indicator measure the change in the GVA (Gross Value Added) in the private and public sectors. The index rose o.6% last month, tying its highest climb this year. However, the markets are bracing for a weaker reading in June, with an estimate of 0.2%

    The pound has enjoyed a strong rally lasting several weeks, but this came to a crashing halt last week. The gains we have been seeing since late May was more a case of a weak dollar rather than a strong pound, and the dollar took full advantage of the QE announcement to roar back against the pound. The fallout from QE may still continue next week, and if British GDP does not impress, we could see the dollar continue to rise.

    Thanks.\

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    time h4

    inv ab=cd

    rd+


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    GBP/USD (4 Hours) - July 8th , 2013

    The currency pair is trading inside a bearish trend channel for the past three weeks. It just was
    able once to leave the channel but the resistance level around 1.5285 pulled it back in there
    again. Currently it is trading at the lowest Bollinger band and touched the support line around
    1.4854. Although the Demarker is showing an oversold market further gains for the USD might
    be possible as long as the pair remains in the channel.



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    GBP/USD (4 Hours) - July 12 , 2013

    As predicted the GBP/USD was able to gain after the bulls had pushed the pair out of the downward channel. Recently it is trading close to the resistance level around 1.5285 and at the highest Bollinger band. We expect that the pair might rebound as the Demarker is showing an
    overbought market.



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    GBP USD attempts to confirm the return 17/07/2013



    The pair achieved a daily close above the bullish cannel’s support, providing positive signals that allow us return to prefer the bullish trend again, supported by the EMA50 and Stochastic, besides the last retest for the previously breached bearish trend resistance which appears with the dashed line in the image.

    The bullish trend will remain valid conditioned by holding above 1.5135 and the most important above 1.5000


    Expected trading range for today is between: 1.5000 support and 1.5300 resistance.


    Expected trend for today: Bullish

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    GBP USD keeps the positive stability 18/07/2013



    The pair kept the stability above the bullish channel’s support, which makes us continue in preferring the intraday bullish trend which is targeting initially 1.5300, while breaching this level represents a main key for supporting achieving more gains that go further towards 1.5800.

    Stochastic negativity might cause some fluctuation and a test for the bullish channel’s support before resuming the waited bullish trend.


    Expected trading range for today is between: 1.5100 support and 1.5400 resistance.


    Expected trend for today: Bullish

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    GBP/USD (4 Hours) - 19 July , 2013

    As predicted the GBP/USD was able to gain after the bulls had pushed the pair out of the downward trend at the support level around 1.4831 (0.0). Recently, it is trading close to the former resistance level around 1.5175, Stochastic and DeMarker are indicating a reducing bullish impetus.



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