PDA

View Full Version : Market Review – Fundamental Perspective



Pages : [1] 2 3 4 5 6

PCMNewsdesk
07-05-2013, 01:02 PM
The EUR fell to a five-week low against the USD after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi made an unprecedented pledge to keep interest rates low for an extended period. The 17-nation currency dropped the most in almost three weeks versus the JPY as Draghi said the ECB’s monetary policy stance will “remain accommodative” for as long as needed to spur growth. The GBP slumped the most in almost two years against the USD after the Bank of England said rising bond yields around the world will weigh on the nation’s economic outlook.
The Dollar Index raised a four-week high before the Labor Department releases its monthly job report tomorrow. “For a central bank that has been reluctant to offer any kind of pre-committal, today’s characterization of forward guidance is about as much as we can expect from the ECB for now,” said Daragh Maher, a London-based currency strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc. “The euro is justifiably lower on this bias to ease.” The EUR weakened 0.7 percent to $1.2914 at 5 p.m. in New York after sliding to $1.2883, the lowest level since May 29. The shared currency dropped 0.6 percent to 129.18 JPY. The JPY added 0.1 percent to 100.04 per USD. “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt following the central bank’s monthly policy meeting. “Our monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary.” The ECB took the “unprecedented step” to give forward guidance in a more explicit way than it did in the past, he told reporters. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent as forecast by all except one of 62 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. “The key statement from Draghi was that they would remain accommodative,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director in London at Forex.com, a unit of online currency-trading company Gain Capital Holdings Inc. (GCAP) “He’s stressed that the risks to growth remain on the downside. It opens the way now for a move back to $1.28.”

PCMNewsdesk
07-08-2013, 11:05 AM
Last Friday a report showed that U.S. employers added 195,000 workers in June although economists had forecasted only an increase of 165,000. Data also showed that U.S. jobless rate held at 7.6 percent in the past month and was close to a four year low. Furthermore speculation came up that the world’s largest economy is improving enough so that the Federal Reserve might reduce stimulus measures with its program of asset purchases. In contrast to the Federal Reserve the Bank of England and the European Central Bank signaled that they will maintain record low borrowing costs. Today data might reveal that U.S. consumer credit rose. Because of that the USD appreciated versus nearly all of its most traded counterparts. The EUR dropped to
1.2820 USD and the USD/JPY climbed to 101.40. The EUR traded at 103.02 against the JPY.
Last Friday the Standard & poor’s Index appreciated 1 percent and the Dow Jones Index also rose 1 percent.
Based on speculations that the Reserve Bank of Australia might probably cut interest rates next month the AUD decreased and was close to a three year low versus the USD. In addition the market forecasted that this week data will show the Australian job market stagnated last month
following a 1,100 rose in May. The AUD/USD tumbled 0.3 percent to 0.9045. The NZD/USD traded close to a one year low and was at 0.7711. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index strengthened 0.1 percent.
Discussions between Greece and members of the troika of the European Commission, the IMF and the ECB might result in an agreement that would be presented to euro area finance ministers in the next days. Beyond that European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said in an interview that Portugal scored an own goal last week with ministerial resignations though Portugal’s leadership has now acted to provide political stability.

PCMNewsdesk
07-08-2013, 12:05 PM
http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1373270698261.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-09-2013, 12:56 PM
July 9th , 2013

Today Finance Ministers from the EU are going to meet in Brussels after their counterparts from the euro area agreed on the aid package for Greece. They were told from the euro zone and the IMF to keep its promises on cutting public sector jobs and selling state assets to get all the cash after they had failed last month to sell a natural gas company. The nation will get 2.5 billion euros this month and the rest will follow in October. It is expected that Greece might return to growth in the next year. Yesterday Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Portugal’s government crisis has been overcome and that they will continue on a successful path. In consequence Portugal’s 10-year yield dropped after it has been announced that the leader if the conservative coalition will become vice president. Because of the easing financial and political turmoil the EUR was able to climb yesterday for the first time in three days. Tomorrow Chairman
Ben S. Bernanke is going to speak the same day when minutes of the central bank’s Junemeeting are due. The EUR was at 1.2865 USD after it rose yesterday 0.3 percent. The EUR/JPY declined 0.1 percent to 129.78. The USD/JPY declined from a five week high 0.1 percent to 100.95. Yesterday the Standard and Poor’s Index appreciated 0.1 percent and the Dow Jones Index increased 0.6 percent.
Investors assume that the AUD may have declined to fast therefore the AUD/USD held its biggest advance in a week after it rebounded from near its lowest in three years. Furthermore data in New Zealand showed that business confidence appreciated to the highest level in almost four years. The NZD/USD depreciated 0.2 percent to 0.7788 and the AUD/USD traded at 0.9121.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1373359612631.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-10-2013, 10:28 AM
The European Union’s executive arm is heading for a showdown with Germany over its blueprint for shuttering or restructuring failing banks, a plan intended to complement the European Central Bank’s oversight of lenders. Today the EU’s financial-services chief is going to unveil in Brussels the European Commission’s proposal for a single bank resolution mechanism. An outline of the EU plan would make the commission responsible for deciding whether action is needed to stabilize or shut down a failing bank.
Investors estimate that the European Central Bank may add to stimulus while the Federal Reserve tightens. Today ECB Executive-Board Member Joerg Asmussen is going to speak. He already said yesterday that the central bank’s policy will remain accommodative for an extended period. Today also Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is going to speak on economic policy. Today also minutes will be released of the Federal Open Market Committee’s last meeting.
Furthermore the market forecasted that data may show today that industrial production in France probably declined 0.8 percent in May from the previous month, when it rose 2.2 percent. Beyond that Standard & Poor’s cut Italy’s long term credit rating to BBB, two levels above junk, from BBB+ yesterday, and supports therefore expectations for a weakening in economic prospects in Italy which is Europe’s third biggest economy. As a result the EUR traded close to a three month low versus the USD and was at 1.2780. The EUR/JPY was at 129.32 and the USD touched 101.17 JPY.
The market expects that data in China will show a pickup in imports. The AUD remained higher and was at 0.9162 USD and the AUD/JPY touched 92.66. The NZD/USD depreciated 0.3 percent to 0.7827.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1373437669711.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-11-2013, 12:22 PM
Yesterday the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting have been released. These minutes showed while several members judged that a reduction in asset purchases would likely soon be warranted, many want to see more improvement in the labor market before reducing its $85 billion-a-month quantitative easing program. Many members also anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to continue purchases into next year. Yesterday Bernanke said in a speech in Cambridge, Massachusetts that a highly accommodative monetary policy will be needed for the foreseeable future. Consequently the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent today. Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s Index remained unchanged and the Dow Jones Index fell 0.1 percent.
Furthermore the USD declined versus nearly all of its most traded counterparts after Bernanke’s speech. The EUR climbed versus the USD to a three week high before today U.S. data are forecast to show that continuing jobless claims increased. The number of people receiving jobless benefits might have climbed to 2.96 million and first-time claims may have dropped to 340,000. The EUR/USD appreciated 1.3 percent to 1.3141 and had even touched 1.3207 earlier.
The USD touched 98.27 JPY and the EUR/JPY increased 0.5 percent to 129.96. The International Monetary Fund upgraded Japan’s growth estimate for this year to 2 percent from 1.6 percent.
Australia’s currency appreciated and was at a two week high against the USD after Bernanke had signaled that the economic stimulus will not be reduced in the near future. Today the monthly employment report will be released in Australia which might show that hiring probably stagnated in June. After the AUD/USD had strengthened 0.9 percent to 92.99, it fell to 92.20. The NZD/USD was at 0.7913.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1373528511291.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-12-2013, 11:26 AM
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index strengthened for a fourth day and added 0.2 percent based on speculation that policy makers from the U.S. to Japan will continue with the monetary stimulus. This week Ben S. Bernanke and the Bank of Japan indicated that they will continue with their stimulus after European and British central banks signaled they will leave interest rates low. Yesterday US data revealed that the number of filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to a two-month high of 360,000 last week. The USD dropped the most since October 2011 after Ben S. Bernanke’s speech yesterday. It fell versus all but one of its most traded counterparts. Yesterday the Bank of Japan boosted its view of the economy and refrained from adding stimulus. The EUR/USD strengthened 0.9 percent to 1.3097 and the USD/JPY declined 0.7 percent to 98.96. The EUR appreciated 0.2 percent to 129.61 JPY. Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 1.4 percent and the Dow Jones Index climbed 1.1 percent.
Investors forecasted that Australia’s Reserve Bank might cut interest rates next month from an already record low of 2.75 percent to 2.5 percent. Today the Australian Bureau of Statistics is going to release monthly home loans data and according to economists it probably climbed 2.2 percent on May, compared with a 0.8 percent increase in the previous month. Yesterday data showed that unemployment rate in Australia climbed to 5.7 percent which was more than the market had forecasted. The AUD/USD weakened 0.2 percent to 0.9171 and the AUD/JPY traded at 90.676. In the past three months Australia’s currency already fell 10 percent and is therefore the worst performer among 10 developed nation currencies. The NZD/USD tumbled 0.1 percent to 0.7844.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1373613986561.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-24-2013, 10:59 AM
The USD fell against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers after an unexpected slump in a regional manufacturing index bolstered the argument for the Federal Reserve to put off winding down its bond-buying program. The JPY reversed losses versus the USD after U.S. housingprice gains trailed forecasts. Data since a July 5 report said U.S. payrolls rose more than forecast have shown housing starts and existing-home sales unexpectedly fell. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last week it was “too early” to decide to begin tapering asset purchases. Canada’s dollar climbed after the nation’s retail sales jumped. “The growth data, aside from employment, have been showing signs of weakness,” Brian Daingerfield, a currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.’s RBS Securities unit in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a phone interview. “There is some focus on the weaker data, and with Bernanke out of the way, squaring up of positions is the name of the game in the near term.” The USD declined 0.3 percent to $1.3226 per EUR at 3:16 p.m., New York Time. It touched $1.3239, the weakest level since June 21, after gaining 0.2 percent earlier. The U.S. currency depreciated 0.2 percent to 99.46 JPY after rising 0.5 percent earlier to 100.18. The JPY weakened 0.1 percent to 131.54 per EUR. The European currency extended gains versus the USD before data tomorrow forecast to show increases this month in manufacturing and services in the 17-nation region. Canada’s dollar climbed versus its U.S. counterpart after a government report showed
Canadian retail sales increased in May at the fastest pace in three years. The currency strengthened 0.5 percent to C$1.0286 to the greenback. South Africa’s rand strengthened for a third day, advancing 1.2 percent to 9.7061 versus the USD. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G-7 Volatility Index, a measure of currency fluctuations, declined to 9.21 percent and touched 9.18 percent, the lowest intraday level since May 9. The gauge has dropped for nine consecutive days, the longest stretch of declines since July 2012. It touched 11.96 percent, the highest this year, on June 24.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1374648876851.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-25-2013, 11:46 AM
The EUR advanced against the majority of 16 most-traded peers after purchasing-manager indexes showed manufacturing in the currency bloc unexpectedly expanded in July, bolstering demand for the region’s assets. The dollar climbed versus the yen for the first time in three days as U.S. Treasury yields increased, boosting the greenback’s allure. The euro slipped versus the American currency after data showed U.S. sales of new homes rose more than forecast last month. The European Central Bank meets Aug. 1. A gauge of volatility among Group-of-Seven currencies was up for the first time in 10 days. “We saw the PMI readings surprise to the upside,” Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist at Gain Capital Group LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview. “If we see a pickup in growth, the ECB policy makers might not need to implement additional tools under consideration, and that’s something from a policy standpoint that’s going to support the currency.” The EUR gained 0.7 percent to 132.36 JPY at 4:15 p.m. New York time and touched 132.74, the strongest since May 23. Europe’s common currency advanced as much as 0.3 percent to $1.3256, the highest level since June 20, before falling 0.2 percent to $1.3201. The dollar rose 0.8 percent to 100.26 yen. Benchmark U.S. 10-year (USGG10YR) note yields touched 2.62 percent, the highest level in more than a week, as prices fell amid speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce its bond purchases this year as the economy improves. Yields on comparable Japanese (GJGB10) government debt touched 0.77 percent for a second day, the lowest level since May 14. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G-7 Volatility Index, a measure of currency fluctuations, rose to 9.51 percent after falling earlier to 9.11
percent, the least since May 9. The gauge climbed to this year’s high of 11.96 percent on June 24. Trading in over-the-counter foreign-exchange options totaled $23 billion, compared with $24 billion yesterday, according to data reported by U.S. banks to the Depository Trust Clearing
Corp. and tracked by Bloomberg. Volume in options on the dollar-yen exchange rate amounted to $3.3 billion, the largest share of trades at 14 percent. Options on the Australian-U.S.-dollar rate totaled $1.9 billion, or 8 percent. USD/JPY options’ trading was 46 percent less than the
average for the past five Wednesdays at a similar time in the day, according to Bloomberg analysis. AUD/USD options’ trading was 25 percent less than average.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1374738250461.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-26-2013, 11:19 AM
The USD fell vs most major counterparts on speculation the Federal Reserve will reassure investors that policy makers won’t be quick to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting. New Zealand’s dollar jumped the most since 2011 versus its U.S. peer after central-bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said a removal of monetary easing “will likely be needed in the future.” The U.S. currency extended losses after the Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath wrote that the Fed will probably keep its bond-buying program unchanged next week. “Hilsenrath today has detailed thoughts that the Fed will remain with an easing bias, and that taper is talk, and only talk,” Douglas Borthwick, a managing director and head of foreign exchange at Chapdelaine FX in New York, wrote today in a note to clients. “It’s certainly not an actionable event any time soon.” The USD dropped 0.6 percent to $1.3282 per EUR at 4:41 p.m., New York Time. It slid 1.1 percent to 99.21 JPY and touched 98.89, the weakest intraday level since July 12. The euro depreciated 0.4 percent to 131.78 yen. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G-7 Volatility Index, a measure of price swings among Group of Seven nations’ currencies, raised to 9.57 percent from 9.11 percent reached yesterday, the lowest intraday level since May 9. The gauge climbed on June 24 to this year’s high of 11.96 percent. The 2013 average is 9.55 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Index remained lower today after the Commerce Department said orders for U.S. durable goods climbed 4.2 percent last month, led by transportation equipment. A Bloomberg survey forecast a 1.4 percent gain. The currency gauge, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, declined 0.7 percent to 1,024.10. The JPY climbed against most of its 16 major peers amid increased demand for refuge. “There was arguably some element of market caution supporting the yen, and possibly paring back some short positions,” Nick Bennenbroek, the head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview.
“Broad U.S. dollar weakness against a range of currencies is another factor that has continued to support the yen.” Short positions are bets an asset, in this case the yen, will decrease in value. Japan’s currency depreciated 3.3 percent in the past month, the biggest decline among 10 developed-market peers tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The EUR was little changed, while the dollar dropped 1.3 percent.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1374823003841.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-29-2013, 11:31 AM
Economists forecasted that a report may show today that pending home sales may have depreciated 1 percent in June from the previous month, when it rose 6.7 percent. Furthermore investors assume that tomorrow the Conference Board will say its gauge of consumer confidence declined to 81 in July from 81.4 in June. This month Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that any reduction in stimulus would depend of the economy’s performance. The USD weakened to a one month low versus the EUR as the market weighed whether the U.S. economy is robust enough for the FED to start reducing stimulus. Tomorrow the Federal Open Market Committee is going to start a two-day policy meeting. The EUR/USD
traded 1.3287. Japan’s currency rose as the demand for haven assets increased. The USD touched 97.78 JPY and the EUR/JPY was at 130.14. On Friday the Standard & Poor’s Index climbed 0.1 percent and the Dow Jones Index remained unchanged. The MSCI World Index of shares fell 0.1 percent on July 26, falling for a fourth day. The Bloomberg Dollar Index which monitors the USD versus 10 other major currencies dropped for a third week. Last week New Zealand’s Governor Graeme Wheeler signaled that he may increase interest rates next year. The rose of the rates depends on the impact on prices of the nation’s growing housing. As a result the NZD was nearly unchanged after it was the biggest winner last week. The NZD/USD traded close to a six-week at 0.8075 and the NZD/JPY was at 79.12. Australian’s currency followed a two-week advance after iron ore, which is Australia’s largest export, strengthened to an almost three month high. The AUD/USD was little changed at 0.9255 and the AUD/JPY was at 90.76. Canada’s currency was close to a five-week high at 1.0270 versus the USD.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375083038921.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-30-2013, 10:51 AM
Crude Oil, which is Canada’s largest export, remained above 100 USD per barrel in the past three weeks. As a result the CAD climbed versus the majority of its most traded peers. Investors estimated that tomorrow a report will show that the economy in Canada rose 0.3 percent in May
from 0.1 percent the month before. Last week a report revealed that retail sales in May climbed at the fastest pace in three years. The USD/CAD was at 1.0265 and the CAD/JPY traded at 95.34.
The market forecasted that tomorrow data will show the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace while the Federal Open Market Committee starts its two-day policy meeting. Yesterday data showed that an index U.S. pending home sales fell 0.4 percent in June from the previous month. Today economists expect that the Conference Board will say its gauge of consumer confidence dropped in July to 81.3 from 81.4 in June. Tomorrow the European Central Bank is going to set policy meeting. Furthermore the demand for haven assets increased after equities around the world declined and growth in China is losing momentum. Investors assume that China may miss the nationwide 7.5 percent expansion goal as official concern over localgovernment financing threatens to curb funding for investment. As a result Japan’s currency was able to held gains and traded 0.3 percent from a month high against the USD. The USD/JPY was at 97.92 and the EUR/JPY touched 129.87. The EUR/USD was nearly unchanged at 1.3263. The Dow Jones Index of shares dropped yesterday 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also tumbled 0.4 percent. The MSCI World Index of stocks declined 0.5 percent yesterday.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375167033511.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-31-2013, 09:54 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares and the Standard & Poor’s Index of shares remained unchanged. Today economists are expecting the Federal Reserve’s policy statement for signals on when it may cut bond buying that tends to debase the currency. Yesterday data showed that U.S. consumer confidence dropped to 80.3, which was more than expected. Today the market forecasted that data will show a slowing growth in gross domestic product, which might have grew at a 1 percent annualized rate from April through June, compared with 1.8 percent in the previous three months. Furthermore investors estimated that today a report from the ADP Research Institute might show employers added 180,000 jobs in July, which is less than the
188,000 in June. As a consequence investors expect that the today the FED will leave interest rate unchanged at a record low. Tomorrow the market expects policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. According to a poll the ECB might leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent as well as the Bank of England, which in addition will probably keep its bond-purchase program at 3875 billion pounds. Yesterday data showed that industrial production in Japan dropped 3.3 percent, which is the most in two years.
The USD is set to close out a monthly loss versus nearly all of its most traded counterparts. The USD/JPY was nearly unchanged at 98.06 and the EUR/USD traded at 1.3261. The EUR touched 130.05 JPY.
Australia’s central bank governor said that there is still enough space to cut interest rates and as a result the AUD declined and approached the weakest level in three years versus the USD. The AUD/USD trades at 0.9043. This year the AUD tumbled 10 percent and is therefore the worst performance among the major currencies. The EUR already rose 5.4 percent this year, while the USD fell 4.8 percent and the JPY slid 8.5 percent.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375250063791.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-01-2013, 10:30 AM
Yesterday the Federal Reserve said that inflation which is persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic expansion. The FED noted difficulties in economy and decided to leave its stimulus program unchanged at its monthly meeting and keep interest rates at zero. Furthermore data showed yesterday that U.S. gross domestic product climbed at a 1.7 percent annualized rate, after it had gained 1.1 percent in the past quarter. Economists had only forecasted an advance of 1 percent. Beyond that data showed that companies in the U.S. increased payrolls in this month by the most this year. The rose of 200,000 in employment was more than the market had estimated and followed a revised 198,000 gain in June. In addition a report from the European statistics office revealed yesterday that the euro-area unemployment rate remained unchanged in June at 12.1 percent. Euro-area inflation held steady at 1.6 percent in July. Mario Draghi said in the past month that they will keep borrowing costs low for an extended period. As a result investors estimate that today the interest rate will be left unchanged by the ECB and the Bank of England. The EUR/USD climbed 0.3 percent to 1.3305 and the USD/JPY fell 0.2 percent to 97.80. The EUR/JPY traded at 130.05. Yesterday the Dow Jones
Index of equities dropped 0.1 percent while the Standard & Poor’s Index remained unchanged. Speculations came up that the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to cut borrowing costs next week which lead to a decline of the AUD to a three year low versus the USD towards 0.8950.
Economists assumed that the Bank of Canada will consider tightening monetary policy before the end of this year as they are expecting an annualized growth of 1.8 percent in the second quarter. The USD/CAD traded at 1.0277 and the CAD/JPY was at 97.80.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375338562551.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-05-2013, 10:22 AM
A government report from last Friday showed that employers added fewer workers in the past month than economists had expected. Payrolls advanced by 162,000 in July, which is the smallest increase in four months. Unemployment rate declined to 7.4 percent from 7.6 percent.
As long as this rate remains above 6.5 percent the central bank plans to hold its target interest rate close to zero. This released data damped speculation that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of bond purchases anytime soon. On Friday the Standard & Poor’s Index increased 0.2
percent and the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed also 0.2 percent. The EUR/USD was at 1.3274 and the USD/JPY traded at 98.90. The EUR/JPY touched 131.31. On the 3rd of August the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said that the nonmanufacturing purchasing Managers’ Index strengthened to 54.1 last month from 53.9 in June. A reading above 50 signals expansion. As a result the USD snapped a five-day gain versus the
AUD and was at 0.8891. The NZD decreased versus nearly all of its most traded counterparts after China and other nations banned imports of milk powder from the world’s largest producer Fonterra Cooperative Group which is set in New Zealand. The NZD/USD was at 0.7764. Canada’s biggest trading partner is the USA and according to government reports, Canada’s economic growth is losing momentum and is slower than the economy in the US. This lead to a depreciation of the CAD versus nearly its entire most traded counterparts. The USD/CAD appreciated to 1.0393.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375683734681.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-06-2013, 10:06 AM
Yesterday the Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index for the U.S. increased to 56 in the past month, economists had only forecasted a rose to 53.1. Beyond that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Richard Fisher said the central bank is closer to
slowing bond purchases that have stoked global equity gains. As a result the USD depreciated for a second day versus the majority of its 16 most traded peers. The USD/JPY fell 0.7 percent to 98.30 and the EUR/USD climbed 0.1 percent to 1.3258. The EUR/JPY declined 0.8 percent to
130.30. The GBP/USD was able to gain for a second day as yesterday’s announced U.K. services added to signs Britain’s economy is gathering momentum. The GBP/USD strengthened to 1.5352. Today the market expects that a German report will show factory orders rose in June
and that the Italian economy, which is the third largest in Europe, contracted at a slower pace last quarter. Economists estimated that gross domestic product fell 0.4 percent in Italy in the second quarter, following a 0.6 decline in the first quarter. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index decreased 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 0.1 percent. According to media estimates the Australian Reserve Bank is going to cut benchmark rates by
25 basis points to a record low at 2.5 percent at its meeting today. In consequence the AUD is close to its lowest level in three years versus the USD and touched 0.8918. The AUD declined versus all of its most traded counterparts and was at 87.46 JPY. New Zealand’s currency advanced after the trade minister had said that the Chinese restrictions on products from New Zealand’s largest company Fonterra Cooperative were less severe than it has been reported. The NZD/USD rallied to 0.7840.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375769159591.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-07-2013, 10:30 AM
Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key rate to a record low of 2.5 percent, which was the second reduction in this year. Economists do not expect further cuts in this year, while they assume that today data may signal that the housing sector is strengthening. It is estimated that home loan approvals increased 2 percent in June, following a 1.8 percent rose in May. Yesterday it was reported that home prices climbed 5.1 percent in the second quarter 2013, which was more than expected. As a consequence Australia’s currency traded near the highest level this month and was at 0.8975 versus the USD. The AUD/JPY was at 87.47. Data showed today that New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 6.4 percent in the second quarter this year. The NZD/USD touched 0.7900 and the NZD/JPY was at 76.94. Japan’s currency advanced to a six week high as the Bank of Japan starts a policy meeting today. In addition tomorrow a report may shot that Japan posted a current account surplus. The USD/JPY fell 0.5 percent to 97.24 and the EUR/JPY weakened 0.5 percent to 129.48. The EUR reached almost a seven week high versus the USD after a German report showed that factory orders increased 3.8 percent in June, as economists only had forecasted an advance of 1 percent. This might be a sign that the euro region is recovering. As a result of that the EUR appreciated 0.4 percent to 1.3305 USD. Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 0.6 percent and the Dow Jones Index declined also 0.6 percent. Today the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is going to present a review for implementing forward guidance in their inflation report. Data had already reveal that industrial production climbed in June more that estimated. The GBP/USD fell to 1.5323 and the EUR/GBP was at 0.8676.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375856900461.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-08-2013, 09:52 AM
Fitch affirmed yesterday that Germany will keep its top credit rating because the government had beat its own budget targets and positioned Europe’s largest economy on the path to growth. Economists forecasted that today German data might show June’s trade surplus widened. Exports might have outpaced imports by 15 billion euro and the current account surplus climbed to 16 billion euro. Last week European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that economic indicators signal the European Union is past the worst of its longest-ever recession, while reiterating that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future. As a consequence the EUR held a two day advance versus the USD and traded at 1.3340. Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s Index declined 0.4 percent and the Dow Jones Index fell 0.3 percent. In the past week Japan’s currency has seen the largest advance among 10 developed currencies but now it declined from a seven high versus the USD before today the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is going to speak after the end of a policy meeting. The
market estimated that the Bank of Japan will not expand stimulus measures, while they currently buy 7 trillion JPY of government bonds every month and try to increase inflation to 2 percent in two years. The USD/JPY increased to 96.83 and the EUR/JPY was at 129.12. Investors forecasted that today a report will show the unemployment rate in Australia rose to a four year high to 5.8 percent in July, from 5.7 percent in the previous month. Beyond that a China report, which is Australia’s biggest trading partner, might show that imports advanced for the first time in three months. The AUD/USD was at 0.8987 and the AUD/JPY touched 86.95.
The NZD/USD declined to 0.7942.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375940960111.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-09-2013, 09:52 AM
According to data Greeks unemployment rate hit another record high in May of 27.6 percent, last year in May in was at 23.8 percent. Greece is the sixth year in recession, and has seen a 25 percent drop in output since 2007. Obama advised the Greek government to take steps to reduce its debt pile but pointed out to balance austerity with measures to promote growth and boost jobs. Last month Greece received another 6.8 billion euros from the European Union, the IMF and the European Central Bank. Yesterday data showed that Chinese exports increased 5.1 percent from a year earlier and imports rose 10.9 percent. And today economists forecasted that a report will show industrial production strengthened 8.9 percent in the past month compared with a year earlier and retail sales may also have climbed 13.5 percent after a 13.3 percent rose in June. Analysts were pleasantly surprised but warned against being too optimistic. These data may add to signs of stabilization in the Asian economy and lead to an increasing demand for higher yielding assets. As a consequence the USD declined versus its major counterparts and was close to a seven week low against the EUR. The EUR/USD traded at 1.3376 and the USD/JPY was at 96.86. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index climbed 0.2% and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 0.4
percent. Next week Euro-area gross domestic product will be announced and the market expects a rose of 0.2 percent in the second quarter. Today the Australian Central Bank is going to update its outlook on growth and inflation while the AUD headed for its largest weekly rally in more than a year. The AUD/USD was nearly unchanged at 0.9102 and the AUD/JPY 87.99. The NZD/USD was at 0.7995.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376027390091.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-12-2013, 09:41 AM
The increase of Japan’s gross domestic product remained below economists’ expectations and was at 2.6 percent annualized in the second quarter, while median estimates predicted a growth of 3.6 percent. This might confirm the concerns that the nation’s economy weakened due to investment cuts by the enterprises undermining surplus’ in consumer and government spending, which are helping to raise the inflation. These current developments of the business might strengthen the position of Prime Minister Abe’s opposition, which is trying to stop the planned increase of the sales tax by 3 percent in April and should be decided in the next months. An additional survey of corporate goods prices published today by the BOJ forecasted a rise of 2.2percent, the most since August 2011.Also the debate about a potential reduction of the monetary stimulus by Federal Reserve received new momentum as the Dollar Index succeeded to climb the second day in a row, before a report might confirm that retail sales climbed 0.3 percent for the fourth consecutive month following a 0.4 percent win in June. The Commerce Department will publish their data tomorrow. The Dollar Index showed the tracking of six currency counterparts versus the USD and appreciated 0.2 percent to 81.259 from Friday as it already gained 0.2 percent. Meanwhile, the USD advanced 0.4 percent against the JPY and was at 96.60 JPY, after having fallen to 95.81 on Friday, the weakest since the 19 of June. The EUR/USD declined 0.1 percent to 1.3324 USD and the 17 nation’s currency added 0.2 percent to 128.70 JPY by touching 127.98, the lowest since the 27 of June.According to a gauge of Bloomberg economists, tomorrow’s report might show that the industrial output in the European area rallied 0.9 percent in June compared to the previous month with a 0.3 percent drop.

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376284335571.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-13-2013, 09:48 AM
Today, a report might show that retail sales climbed in July, the fourth month in a row. In advance, the USD rallied to the strongest level within a week amid speculation that positive data might scale the probability that the Federal Reserve could reduce their monthly asset purchase program. Referring to Bloomberg News, the U.S. Commerce Department might confirm that the retail sales increased 0.3 percent in June following a 0.4 percent estimate. Last week, some officials of the U.S central bank signaled their readiness for taking first steps to reduce the monetary stimuli on their September gathering on the 17th and 18th next month. Also the Bloomberg Dollar Index climbed 0.1 percent to 1,021.47 after having appreciated 0.4 percent the previous day, the first in more than five days.
In contrast, the economists are expecting a heightening of the monetary easing by the Bank of Japan as the factory orders drop in June. Tonight released report by the Cabinet Office showed that the machine orders declined 2.7 percent in June compared to May as it fetched 10.5 percent, while a Bloomberg gauge predicted a 7 percent decrease. In addition, minutes of the BOJ’s July meeting will be published today and will present the expectation of a moderately growth of the world’s third-biggest economy; although concerns regarding consumer prices might remain. As a result, the JPY weakened against all of its most traded peers. Furthermore, the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes verified that the JPY has fallen 8.3 percent since January, the worst performer after the AUD. The EUR advanced 5.2 percent in the same period and the USD strengthened 4.2 percent. Therefore the USD ascended 0.4 percent and was at 97.24 JPY by touching 97.44, the highest since the 7th of August. The EUR/USD remained nearly unchanged at 1.3308, while the JPY shrank 0.4 percent to 129.41 versus the EUR.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376372722861.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-14-2013, 10:11 AM
Yesterday, the development of the U.S. retail sales fulfilled the economists’ expectations by advancing 0.2 percent in July and appreciated for the fourth month in a row. In contrast, the Canadian business showed signs that the growth might lag behind compared to its biggest trading partner; especially after e report confirmed weak labor market data. In July, the economy lost 39,400 jobs and remained clear behind the predicted surplus of 10,000 workers by a Bloomberg poll. As a result, the CAD tumbled for the third day in a row and tumbled 0.4 percent to 1.0343 CAD versus the USD. In the last quarter, the CAD declined 1.9 percent compared to the other tracked currencies by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighed Indexes, while the USD lost 0.1 percent and the AUD 8.8 percent in the same period. Today, the Bank of Canada is selling 2.7 billion USD in bonds with a maturity of 10 years and also futures on crude oil, the nation’s main export, added 0.4 percent and rallied to 106.52 USD per barrel.
Referring to yesterday’s positive data, the probability rises further that the Fed will reduce their monthly bond buying program of 85 billion USD by 10 billion USD to 75 billion USD on their September meeting. Nevertheless, the USD succeeded to keep its gains from the day before. Furthermore, the tomorrow releasing New York Fed’s general economic index might increase to 10 this month, the best since February, according to economists’ estimates. All readings above zero are signs for growth in the so-called Empire State area. Also, the latest labor market figures will publish tomorrow and could confirm that jobless claims shrank by 18,000 to 335,000 in the first two weeks in August. In addition, the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes confirmed that the USD has advanced 4.1 percent in the past six months, the best performance among all tracked currencies, while the EUR fetched 3.3 percent and the JPY tumbled 2.1 percent in the same period.

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376460453771.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-15-2013, 10:05 AM
Yesterday, gold performed the biggest increase since the 24th of July and climbed 0.8 percent to 1,346.61 USD per ounce responding to the rising demand due to a weakening USD. Also other metals and oil benefited from the development of the U.S. currency and appreciated. But later today, the labor market data like initial jobless claims of the U.S. economy will be released and might show a slight surge to 335,000 in the second week in August from 333,000 the week before. Besides the jobless claims also consumer prices will be published and referring to a report by Bloomberg economists, consumer prices probably advanced by 0.2 percent in July boosting the inflation up and after having risen 0.5 percent in June. Furthermore, the representatives of the Federal Reserve forewarned for too high expectations for the economic growth and pledged for caution in the efforts to change the current policy of the central bank. In succession, the USD lost against nearly all of its most traded counterparts.
A speaker of the Japanese government confirmed that the plans for a lowering of cooperate taxes by Prime Minister Abe have not made any progresses so far, which increased the downward pressure on the JPY. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY dropped 0.5 percent to 97.67 JPY following a decrease of 0.1 percent yesterday. The 17 nation’s currency enforced against the USD and climbed 0.3 percent to 1.3297, while the JPY gained 0.2 percent and traded at 129.88 versus the EUR. Also the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.2 percent to 1,022.55.
Meanwhile, the GBP benefited from estimates that today releasing retail sales including automotive fuel might rally 0.7 percent last month continuing the 0.2 percent surplus in June. The GBP climbed 0.2 percent to 1.5526 USD.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/137654668751.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-19-2013, 08:51 AM
This week a range of German data might confirm that the largest economy of the European Union is gaining momentum, which spurred the EUR close to a five day high. Referring to estimates by Bloomberg news, German producer prices probably climb in the 7th month and also gauges of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services industries shows that the recovery of the euro-zone accelerated. Economists’ estimates are predicting an increase of producer prices by 0.2 percent in July compared to a month before, finishing a period of six month with contracting figures. In addition, a poll of German manufacturing could rally to 51.1 this month from 50.7 in July and also the services index, releasing by the London-based Markit Economics on the 22nd of August, might advance to 51.7 from 51.3. Furthermore, a Bloomberg pool for an index of both activities in the euro zone probably strengthened to 50.9 from 50.5. All readings above 50 are signs for growth.
In contrast, Japan’s trade deficit increased in July, which added downward pressure on the JPY. Tomorrow releasing minutes of Australia’s Reserve Bank might announce no change for the nation’s key benchmark rate. As a result, the EUR/USD appreciated to 1.3333 from 1.3329 on Friday, after having touched 1.3380, the best since the 9th of August. Versus the JPY, the 17 nation’s currency kept its level and was at 129.97 JPY, while the USD tumbled 0.1 percent to 97.48 JPY snapping earlier gains of 0.3 percent. Since the beginning of this year, the EUR has showed a win of 5 percent referring to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the best performance among the tracked currencies followed by the USD with 3.8 percent. The JPY lost 8.8 percent in the same period.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376887834481.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-20-2013, 09:48 AM
Tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of their two-day summit in August as well as speeches of their leading officials. But the main announcement was that the central bank is planning to link the future direction of their policy more on the development of currency and they emphasized that a further cut of the key interest rate has not been scheduled yet.
Australia’s currency strengthened 2.7 percent versus the USD since the 5th of August as the AUD/USD reached a three-year low. As a result, the AUD declined the second day in a row, while government bonds with a maturity of 10 years appreciated to 4.05 percent, the best within 16 months. The yield for three-year-bonds climbed to 2.8 percent, a level unseen since the 8th of July. Also the volatility of the AUD based on one month increased to the highest within two weeks and advanced 40 basis points to 12 percent. Therefore the nation’s currency lost 0.3 percent and traded at 90.87 U.S. cents after having touched 92.33 U.S. cents yesterday and before tumbling 0.8 percent in succession, the most since the 31st of July. According to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the AUD showed the weakest performance among all tracked peers and slid 10 percent in the last six months.
In addition to the AUD, also the currency of the neighbor nation, the NZD, declined against nearly all of its most traded currency counterparts. It was a result of the latest statements by the Governor of the New Zealand central bank, who expressed that they are willing to tighten the restrictions for bank lending to circumvent increases of the current interest rates. Besides the AUD, also the NZD declined versus the USD and weakened 0.9 percent to 0.7993. Compared to the AUD, the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes confirmed, too, that the NZD followed the AUD once more and has shrunk 2.3 percent in the first half of 2013.

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376977566531.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-22-2013, 10:14 AM
Speculations regarding a third rescue package for Greece heated up once more as Germany’s Finance Minister Schaeuble explained the need for a further package on a campaign stop. Referring to the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, economists discussed that this would be the only other possibility apart from a further debt cut. The financial aids might provide from the EU Structural Funds and it should revive the recovery of the Greek economy as well as supply a part of the nation’s budget for debt repayments.
Today, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of a range of important U.S. data like labor market as well as housing data, which might add signs for an accelerating recovery of the nation’s economy. In addition, the yesterday released minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that majority of their members agreed on a predominant line for a stepwise reduction of the current monetary easing. Both announcements will boost the probability for a start of the
reduction within this year and therefore the USD enforced against most of their counterparts. Nevertheless, concerns remain that a reduction of the current monthly bond purchasing program might lead to an exodus of capital towards countries, which offer higher yields. The next Federal Open Market Committee summit will take place on the 17th and 18th of September.
Besides the U.S. business, the European economy might pick up speed referring to estimates of today publishing manufacturing and services figures. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced in their yesterday’s minutes that the central bank will reserve the possibility for further rate cuts and lowered the key benchmark to a record-low of 2.5 percent. The USD climbed 0.1 percent to 1.3340 versus the EUR after rallying 0.5 percent yesterday. The USD/JPY appreciated 0.2 percent to 97.90 from yesterday’s level. Similar to the USD, the EUR advanced 0.1 percent against the JPY and was at 130.62 JPY.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1377151914711.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-23-2013, 09:37 AM
Investors punished the CAD after the nation’s retail sales remain below economists’ expectations adding concerns that the economy is curbing. The Statistics Canada announced that retail sales shrank 0.6 percent to 40.1 billion CAD due to flooding in Alberta and a construction strike in Quebec, while Bloomberg estimates predicted a loss of 0.4 percent. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate unchanged at 1 percent since September 2010 with the
aim to push the nation’s business. Also, Canada’s gross domestic product rallied 1.6 percent in the second three months this year, but it depreciated already 0.5 percent in June referring to a survey by Bloomberg News, while consumer prices are forecasted to climb 1.4 percent in July compared to a year earlier, before releasing numbers tomorrow. Moreover, futures on crude oil, the nation’s largest export, fetched 1.3 percent to 105.20 USD per barrel, after having fallen briefly to a two-week low yesterday. As a result, the CAD lost against nearly all of its most traded peers; especially versus the USD, it dropped the fifth day in a row, the worst intraday decline in two months. The sales figures decreased in June, after manufacturing sales and wholesale have tumbled before. In addition, a surprising slump of jobs in July followed the first contraction of the Ivey purchasing-managers index of this year. Tomorrow, an inflation gauge might show that it was below the central bank’s target rate in July for the 15th month in a row. Therefore the USD/CAD lost 0.4 percent to 1.0516 by briefly touching 1.0531, the lowest intraday level since the 10th of July.
Further gains of the South Pacific currencies were limited by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will agree on a start for the cut the monetary easing on their next meeting in September. The AUD kept its yesterday’s level nearly unchanged and was at 0.9018 USD, while the NZD traded at 0.7835 USD from 0.7830 the previous day.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/13772362561.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-26-2013, 11:11 AM
As assumed on Friday, the USD established its weekly loss due to the heating speculations regarding the increasing probability that the Fed might start to reduce their monthly bond purchasing program of 85 billion USD. Last week’s data showed a strengthening U.S. economy, but today releasing durable goods orders might weaken 4 percent in July, for the first time in four months compared to the previous month as it rallied 3.9 percent. Furthermore, the new home sales, which were published on Friday, shrank the most within three years in July, but mortgage applications will not be disclosed until the 28th of August. In contrast, tomorrow publishing German business climate is probably gaining for the fourth month in a row confirming a continuing improvement. Tomorrow announced business climate index of Europe’s largest economy by the Ifo institute might appreciate to 107 from 106.2 in July, referring to economist's expectations, while the German unemployment rate probably remain unchanged at 6.8 percent, according to another gauge by Blomberg News. Since May 2012, the jobless rate has not
dropped below this level.
Therefore the USD traded at 1.3384 versus the EUR after having declined 0.4 percent last week. The USD/JPY slid slightly to 98.67 from 98.72 on Friday, while the 17 nation’s currency remained at 132.06 JPY by briefly touching 132.43 on the 23rd of August, the best since the 25th of July. Also the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 1,026.11 from last week’s 1,026.15. The GBP/USD traded at 1.5570 and the GBP/JPY was at 153.42. The NZD/USD touched 0.7831 and the NZD bought 77.16 JPY.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1377499464251.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-27-2013, 10:44 AM
Yesterday, the U.S. Secretary of State emphasized that the use of chemical weapons against their own people by the Syrian government will be resulting in consequences. Median reports kept signs that the UN experts were able to collect a range of data regarding incident last week. Therefore an intervention by the U.S. government becomes increasingly probable. But speakers of the U.S. government expressed that President Obama has not taken any definite decision whether a military action might follow. As a result, fears grew that the oil supplies from this region might be affected and prices for crude oil climbed 0.5 percent to 106.43 USD per barrel, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.2 percent.
Besides oil, also the JPY benefited from the rising demand for so-called haven assets as Asian shares as well as shares of emerging markets declined and advanced against nearly all of its most traded counterparts. The USD/JPY dropped 0.3 percent and was at 98.24 from the day before as it has rallied 0.2 percent, while also the EUR decreased 0.2 percent against the JPY to 131.46 following yesterday’s 0.3 percent losses. Meanwhile, the USD remained nearly unchanged at 1.3375 versus the EUR.
Today, the Ifo institute will release a range of important figures of the current state of the German economic. Germany is the biggest business in Europe and is also called the engine of the economy of the euro zone. According to median estimates by Bloomberg news, the business confidence might expand the fourth month in a row and also the institute’s business climate index, which is based on a gauge among 7,000 executives, probably succeeded to appreciate to 107.0 compared to 106.2 in July. The 17 nation’s currency added 0.5 percent towards its U.S. counterpart in August, the best performance followed by the GBP. In the same time, the JPY shrank 0.4 percent in the last month.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/137758494191.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-28-2013, 11:33 AM
A threatening military intervention by the U.S. and UK in Syria drove many traders into investments of so-called secure currencies like the JPY or the CHF, which benefited from the rising demand. As a result, the JPY showed best performance in the last 10 weeks versus the USD and climbed 1.5 percent yesterday, the most since the 11th of June and before dropping 0.1 percent to 97.11 today. Similar to the USD, the EUR enforced slightly versus the JPY and was at 130.02, 0.1 percent above yesterday’s close. While the EUR kept its level nearly unchanged at 1.3393 USD, the CHF appreciated to 0.9179 against the USD, the best since the 21st of August.
In addition to gold, silver has performed a strong recovery since its 35-months low in June and succeeded to gain almost 30 percent to currently 24.59 USD per ounce, which surpassed the rise of gold by nearly 18 percent in the same period. Silver benefited by fears of inflation as well as from positive signs of the Chinese economy. Furthermore, the demand for silver has rocketed in India due to intensified and complicated import and export rules for gold since the middle of July. Also ETF’s and coins are enjoying growing popularity among investors. According to Bloomberg News, the holdings of silver by funds climbed 6 percent to a new record around 644 billion ounces in this year. Meanwhile, the fund holdings in gold have decreased to the lowest
since November 2010 and are currently at 63 billion ounces.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1377675154321.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-29-2013, 10:20 AM
Despite the feared military invention in Syria by the US and the UK, the capital markets are still performing slight wins due to positive impetus by the leading economies like China and the US. Also the Dow Jones Index advanced 0.3 percent to 14,824 points and the S&P 500 climbed 0.3 percent to 1,634, while the Nasdaq-Composite added 0.4 percent and traded at 3593 points. Currently, many economists’ expressed concerns regarding threatening energy shortages due to oil supply bottlenecks by the leading oil producing nations of the Middle East, which might lead to a drop in consumer spending. As a result, the prices for oil rallied to a new high around 112.19 USD per barrel, the best in 24 months, only limited by the strong USD near a monthly peak as estimates forecasts an accelerating business growth above the economists’ expectations. According to a gauge by Bloomberg News, the U.S. gross domestic product probably
appreciated revised to 2.2 percent annualized rate in the last three months compared to estimates of an increase by 1.7 percent before. Today releasing labor market data might show a decrease in applications for jobless benefits.
But in contrast, the stock exchanges in Europe and Asia are dropping. Therefore the EUR lost 0.1 percent against its U.S. peer and was at 1.3325 following a 0.4 percent advance the previous day. Meanwhile, the JPY kept its level at 97.59 versus the USD after having shrunk 0.6 percent yesterday, the highest since the 22nd of August. After yesterday’s jump of the CHF, the USD/CHF declined 0.1 percent to 0.9231 again as the mounting tension in Syria calmed down. The EUR remained nearly unchanged against the CHF at 1.2300. Furthermore, today’s data of Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, might confirm a strengthening in employment in August, the third month in a row, which will keep the unemployment rate close to a two-decade low of 6.8 percent, while inflation probably cooled down this month.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1377756965811.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-30-2013, 10:42 AM
The tension caused by a military intervention in Syria calmed down as the House of Commons refused to support a military action, which is not legitimated by a NATO-mandate. In succession, the risk appetite of many investors awakened again and the demand for emerging-market currencies as well as Asian stocks apart from Japanese ones rallied. Therefore the concerns on a threatening bottleneck in oil disappeared and Crude Oil dropped for the second day in a row
returning from its 24-months peak, which was reached after the announcement of the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
Today releasing market data of the U.S. economy will determine the trading of many investors. But before, the USD succeeded to reach a monthly high against nearly all of its most traded counterparts and also the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index traded at 1,032.90 from the previous day following a rise to 1,034.23, the best since the 2nd of August. The index is showing the performance of the USD against 10 major currencies and is heading to a weekly win of 0.7 percent. Referring to estimates by Bloomberg News, the recovery accelerated by surpassing the expectations of a majority of economists and increased the probability of a stimulus reduction by the Federal Reserve after their next meeting in September.
Besides the USD, also the JPY showed a strong performance against its major peers due to speculations that exporters might repatriate overseas earnings. As a result, USD/JPY tumbled 0.2 percent to 98.14 JPY, after having fetched 0.7 percent yesterday, the best within a week. Also the EUR enforced versus the USD and advanced 0.1 percent to 1.3248, a slight increase compared to a 0.7 percent rise the day before. But the JPY climbed 0.2 percent against the 17
nation’s currency and was at 130.01. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is establishing a 1 percent weekly drop and a 0.4 percent fall in this month.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1377844854491.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-02-2013, 10:52 AM
The tension caused by a military intervention in Syria calmed down as the House of Commons refused to support a military action, which is not legitimated by a NATO-mandate. In succession, the risk appetite of many investors awakened again and the demand for emerging-market currencies as well as Asian stocks apart from Japanese ones rallied. Therefore the concerns on a threatening bottleneck in oil disappeared and Crude Oil dropped for the second day in a row
returning from its 24-months peak, which was reached after the announcement of the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.
Employers probably added more workers in August and the jobless rate held at a more than four-year low, signaling a strengthening U.S. labor market that will help sustain growth, economists said before a report this week. Payrolls rose by 180,000 following a 162,000 gain the prior month, according to the median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of Labor Department figures Sept. 6. Manufacturing probably cooled after expanding in July at the fastest pace in two years, other data may show. Faster hiring and income gains will help underpin consumer spending and allow the world’s largest economy to better weather the lingering effects of higher taxes and federal budget cuts. Federal Reserve policy makers are watching the job market as they debate scaling back monthly bond purchases meant to stimulate growth and cut unemployment. “We’re on track for a pretty solid payrolls report for August,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Société Générale in New York. “It goes hand in hand with the improving economy.” Reports last week showed a mixed picture. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter, up from the 1.7 percent pace previously estimated, and the MNI Chicago Report (CHPMINDX)’s measure of business activity grew in August for a fourth consecutive month. In other data, consumer spending rose less than forecast in July, and consumer sentiment dropped in August from a six year high.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378104276321.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-03-2013, 10:13 AM
The yen dropped to a one-month low against the dollar as reports showed manufacturing in China and Europe expanded and the threat of imminent military action against Syria eased, damping demand for haven currencies. Japan’s currency slid at least 0.7 percent versus all of its 16 major peers as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won backing for a sales-tax increase, signaling he is making progress on policies that have helped weaken the yen. Australia’s dollar gained on
China’s improving growth prospects. The pound rose to a two-month high versus the euro after a gauge of U.K. manufacturing increased more than analysts forecast last month. “The improvement in global investor risk sentiment is leading to the reversal of the yen’s recent safehaven driven gains,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “The surveys are helping to reassure investors that the economic slowdown in
China at least appears to have stabilized in the near term.” The yen slid 1.2 percent to 99.35 per dollar at 4:42 p.m. London time after reaching 99.43, the weakest level since Aug. 2. Japan’s currency depreciated 0.9 percent to 131 per euro. The euro weakened 0.3 percent to $1.3186.
U.S. financial markets were closed yesterday for a public holiday. The pound rose to the strongest level versus the euro in two months after an index of U.K. manufacturing expanded to the most since February 2011, adding to signs the economy is recovering. Gilts fell, pushing 10- year yields to the highest in more than two years, as the gauge, based on a survey of purchasing managers, damped demand for the safety of government debt. Sterling rose for the first time in five days against the dollar before the Bank of England meets this week. The central bank will keep its asset-purchase program and benchmark interest rate unchanged, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, as policy makers assess the impact of forward guidance.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378188311541.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-04-2013, 11:19 AM
The S&P 500 climbed 0.4 percent to 1,639.77 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring an earlier advance of as much as 1.1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 23.65 points, or 0.2 percent, to 14,833.96. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands, the highest level since Aug. 1. U.S. exchanges were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday. “The economy, things are coming in pretty good,” Karyn Cavanaugh, a vice president and market strategist at ING U.S.
Investment Management in New York, said in a phone interview. Her firm oversees about $190 billion. “We know there are a lot tensions in the Middle East. If you wait for the dust to settle in order to get in the market, you’re going to be waiting forever. Look at the fundamentals and if the fundamentals are increasing, that’s your directional signal.” Global stocks rose yesterday as data showed China’s manufacturing index increased to a 16-month high in August, while other gauges showed euro-area factory output expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in August.
The dollar rose to a seven-week high after a report showed U.S. manufacturing expanded in August to the fastest pace since June 2011, fueling expectation the Federal Reserve will start cutting bond purchases this month. The greenback reached a one-month high versus the yen after an Israeli missile test raised concern that conflict in the Middle East was escalating amid the prospect of U.S. intervention in Syria, boosting demand for haven assets. Australia’s dollar
rose after the nation’s Reserve Bank held its benchmark rate unchanged.
Indonesia’s rupiah slipped to a more-than-four-year low. “The ISM data was much better than expected, the manufacturing sector continues to expand,” Sireen Harajli, a foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank in New York, said in a telephone interview. “But there’re still a lot of important U.S. data coming out this week.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378278853691.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-05-2013, 10:54 AM
The dollar weakened against its higher-yielding counterparts after a report showed China’sservices industry expanded last month, adding to signs the global economy is recovering. The U.S. currency fell against the majority of its 16 most-traded counterparts after a Federal Reserve survey found “modest to moderate” economic growth in early July through late August. The Australian dollar climbed for a third day after the nation’s economic growth quickened, while the New Zealand dollar also advanced. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index halted a five-day run of gains that took it to the highest level since July. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 other major currencies, fell 0.3 percent to 1,033.04 at 5 p.m. New York Time, after having reached 1,038.61 yesterday, the most since July 16. The U.S. currency
dropped 0.3 percent to $1.3207 per euro after climbing yesterday to the highest level since July 22. The greenback gained 0.2 percent to 99.74 yen. Japan’s currency lost 0.5 percent to 131.73 per euro. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank will announce interest-rate decisions tomorrow. U.K. central bank Governor Mark Carney introduced forward guidance on the path of interest rates last month, saying the Monetary Policy Committee won’t consider raising its key rate until unemployment falls to 7 percent, while MPC member Martin Weale voted against it. “There is some speculation that the strength of the recent data will see another member join Weale’s dissent,” currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. led by Marc Chandler in New York wrote in a research note. The Canadian dollar gained for a second day versus its U.S. peer as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz kept his main interest rate unchanged and reiterated that current monetary policy remains appropriate. The currency appreciated 0.4 percent to C$1.0496 per dollar.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378364060881.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-06-2013, 10:47 AM
A Federal Reserve headed by Lawrence Summers may give financial markets even stronger support in times of stress than it did under Ben S. Bernanke. That’s according to David Zervos, managing director...

PCMNewsdesk
09-09-2013, 09:39 AM
On Friday at the Group of Twenty meeting in St. Petersburg U.S. president Barack Obama resisted pressure to stop plans for air strike against Syria. So there was no joint statement on Syria just a statement of the nations to join the United States calling for a strong international response. Furthermore European Union finance ministers are resuming the fight over rules for failing lenders as they struggle to advance bank-union plans against German resistance. They are going to meet in Lithuania at the end of this week. In addition on Friday data showed that U.S. employers added fewer workers in August than estimated, which damps speculation the
Federal Reserve will cut bond purchases in September. Payrolls rose by 169,000 in the last month and the U.S. jobless rate dropped to 7.3 percent. The EUR/USD advanced to 1.3170. Because of Japan’s winning bid to host the Olympics the market estimates that this might boost construction and tourism, create more jobs and overcome the economic effects of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami. This might also bolster Prime Minister Abe efforts to drive the economic recovery by taming inflation and boosting consumer confidence. As a result the JPY declined 0.7 percent versus the USD and was at 99.90 and the EUR/JPY traded at 131.65.
Yesterday China’s data showed that overseas shipments climbed 7.2 percent in the past month from a year earlier, economists had only forecasted an increase of 5.5 percent. China’s imports gained 7 percent and left a trade surplus of more than 28 billion USD. This data supported the AUD and the NZD who were both able to strengthen. Beyond that last week Tony Abbott let the Liberal-National coalition to victory in Australia’s federal elections ending six years of rule by the Labor Party. Abbott is pledging to cut red tape and lower taxes to boost the economy. The AUDUSD rose to 0.9201 before it declined again. The NZD/USD was little changed at 0.7970.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378705086241.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-10-2013, 11:08 AM
The market estimates that the Russian bid to get Syria to hand out its chemical weapons might avoid a U.S. military strike. This damped demand for haven currencies such as the USD, which declined from yesterday against nearly all of its most traded counterparts. Today President Obama addresses the nation trying to make the case that U.S. security is at stake if there is no punishment for the chemical attack on rebel areas that killed over 1,400 people on August 21. As a consequence futures on crude oil dropped 1.4 percent. The USD traded close to its lowest level for more than a week versus the EUR and was at 1.3255. The USD/JPY climbed 0.1 percent to 99.65 and the EUR/JPY also rose 0.1 percent to 132.10. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index strengthened 0.9 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index appreciated 1 percent.
Economists forecasted that today China’s National Bureau of Statistics will say factory production gained 9.9 percent in the past month from a year earlier, compared with a 9.7 percent advance in July. Retail sales may also have increased 13.3 percent after July’s 13.2 rose. As a result the AUD and the NZD maintained two days of advances. The NZD/USD touched 0.8024 and the AUD/USD was at 0.92040.
A report in Canada showed that building permits appreciated to a record in July, adding to sings that the economy is gaining momentum. Beyond that a report last week showed that Canada added triple the amount of jobs as it has been estimated. Tomorrow another report is estimated to announce that housing starts in Canada remained at almost the same level from July. The CAD rallied almost to a three week high versus the USD and was at 1.0369. The CAD/JPY traded at 96.10.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378796812791.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-11-2013, 09:48 AM
In the past week Japan’s currency fulfilled the largest drop among 10 developed market currencies when it lost 1.7 percent. Today the JPY was 0.1 percent from its lowest level in seven weeks against the USD as signs of easing tensions over Syria combined with a worldwide equity rally damped demand for safe haven currencies. Today President Obama is going to address the US nation at 9 p.m. in Washington after the U.S. Senate backed away from an immediate vote for a military strike. Tomorrow investors forecasted that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will announce a slowing in bond purchases next week. The USD/JPY was nearly unchanged at 100.25 and the EUR/JPY trade at 132.96. The EUR/USD strengthened to 1.3264. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of stocks climbed 0.8 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 0.7 percent.
Canada’s currency increased for a third day in a row and is close to a three week high versus the USD. It appreciated versus nearly all of its most traded counterparts although Canada’s federal housing agency said that housing starts in the past month posted their largest decline in seven months. The CAD gained 0.2 percent against the USD to 1.0349. Canada’s biggest export, crude oil, depreciated 2.1 percent to $107.23 per barrel.
Based on optimism that Syria will cooperate to avoid a U.S. air strike the AUD advanced and is close to its highest level since July. In addition data today showed that consumer confidence in Australia increased to the highest level since December 2010. A possible change of government and lower interest rates boosted sentiment among households. The AUD/USD traded at 0.9307 and the NZD/USD was at 0.8057.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378878458151.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-13-2013, 10:16 AM
Japan’s machinery orders stagnated in July from the previous month when they slid 2.7 percent. Furthermore concerns came up that a sales-tax increase will hamper economic growth and lead to a rising demand for safe assets such as the JPY as a haven currency. Therefore the JPY was
able to strengthen for a second day versus the USD before declining today to 99.64. Last week the JPY was the worst performer of 10 developed-nation currencies when it fell 1.8 percent. The EUR/JPY was at 132.47. Besides that the market forecasted that today U.S. retail sales appreciated 0.5 percent in the past month after a 0.2 percent gain in July. Investors also assume that next week the Federal Open Market Committee will decide to slow its monthly asset buying
program.
Economists forecasted that the euro-area growth might slow to 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a 0.3 percent advance in the second quarter. In addition the European Union’s statistics office said factory production in euro-area depreciated 1.5 percent from June, when it gained 0.6 percent. The EUR dropped versus the USD to 1.3296. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of stocks
depreciated 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 0.3 percent.
A report in Australia showed that payrolls declined for a second month. In addition unemployment increased to a four-year high which lead to a decrease of the AUD versus the USD to 0.9260. The AUD/JPY was at 92.34. The NZD/USD was at 0.8132.
Canada’s currency depreciated for the first time in five days after U.S. jobless claims touched the lowest level since 2006. Futures on crude oil, Canada’s biggest export, gained 1.1 percent to 108.75 per barrel. The USD/CAD advanced 0.1 percent to 1.0323.

PCMNewsdesk
09-16-2013, 11:33 AM
The former debt-ridden Ireland, one of the nations, which are seeking financials aids from the European rescue fund, is preparing a re-entering of the sovereign debt markets at the end of the year. Then the countries 67.5 billion EUR bailout program will be expire. In contrast to Greece and Portugal, Ireland has shown many efforts in the implementation of measures to restore the government’s credibility following an agreed five-year plan for austerity measures. As a result, Irish bonds succeeded to become the third-best performers in the euro area with borrowing costs of 3.98 percent for bonds maturing after 10 years, which are 54 basis points better than Italy. Next month, Finance Minister Noonan will present the nation’s budget for 2014 to the parliament as calls are beginning to be made to reduce the spending cuts and tax increases in 2015.
The former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers resigned from his candidacy for the position of the Federal Reserve president, which reduced the probability for an accelerated reduction of the current monetary policy. Therefore the USD decreased against the 17 nation’s currency to a two-week low. In addition, President Obama’s agreement for the Syrian plan for eliminating its chemical weapons to avoid a military intervention curbed the risk appetite of many investors and the demand for the JPY declined, while the South Pacific currencies advanced. The EUR/USD climbed 0.5 percent to 1.3365 by touching 1.3382, the highest since the 28th of August. Also the JPY enforced against the USD and succeeded to add 0.5 percent to 98.86 after having reached
a two-week low around 98.46, while the EUR remained nearly unchanged versus the JPY at 132.12 JPY. But referring to median estimates by Bloomberg News, today releasing manufacturing of the New York region will grew much faster in September and the general economic index might strengthen to 9 this month from 8.2. Meanwhile, forecasts predict the also the industrial production advanced by 0.4 percent in August.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379316762091.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-17-2013, 09:52 AM
Today, the two-day summit of the Federal Reserve is set to start and the majority of investors are eagerly awaiting an announcement regarding the U.S. monetary policy and especially a schedule for the expected reductions of the current easing measures. According to forecasts the Federal Open Market Committee might agree on a lowering of the monthly bond purchasing to 75 billion USD from 85 billion USD. Besides this, the Labor Department will release its latest consumer prices, which might have increased to 1.8 percent in August compared to a year earlier. In addition, speculations about the running candidates for the post of the next Fed president are heating up and the current Vice Chairman Yellen was named as the new frontrunner, after the resignation of the former Treasury Secretary Summers. Therefore the EUR/ USD dropped to 1.3333 only little changed from yesterday’s close, while the USD climbed 0.1 percent to 99.20 JPY. Furthermore, the one-month volatility of the USD/JPY decreased to 11.69 percent from 12.28 the day before, the best since the 11th of September. The Dollar Index published by Bloomberg remained nearly unchanged from the day before as it declined to 1,017.30, the weakest level since the 12th of August. The Index is showing the performance of the U.S. currency against a basket of 10 major currency peers. The USD was the weakest performer among the tracked counterparts last week and depreciated 0.6 percent, while the JPY added 0.8 percent.
Meanwhile, the EUR benefited from estimates that the today releasing ZEW surveys might confirm a rise of investor confidence to 45 this month from 42 the previous one, which will be the best in six months, referring the median surveys among economists. In succession, the EUR enforced against the JPY and appreciated 0.1 percent to 132.25 JPY. The GBP kept its level after having lost 0.2 percent yesterday and was at 0.8388 versus the EUR.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379396945311.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-18-2013, 10:11 AM
Yesterday, the CAD crossed a six-week high after factory sales increased 1.7 percent to 49.5 billion CAD, the most in five months in July. Economists rated this improvement as first signs that the nation’s economy accelerated this recovery. Also against its U.S. counterpart, the CAD succeeded to gain a second day in a row as a report showed yesterday that the rise of U.S. consumer prices remained below the forecasts in August, which might be a sign that the inflation might need more time to reach the Federal Reserve target level. Furthermore, today the two-day summit of the Federal Reserve will end and the FOMC policy makers will express their scheduled plan for a potential reduction of the monthly purchase program this afternoon. As a result, the CAD added 0.3 percent to 1.0296 versus the USD, after having touched 1.0275, the best since the 1st of August. Meanwhile, futures on crude oil dropped 1 percent and were at 105.52 USD per barrel by briefly reaching the weakest point in two weeks. Crude Oil is Canada’s biggest export commodity. The CAD was the third worst performer with a drop of 2.8 percent in last twelve months only topped by the AUD with a decline of 8.6 percent and the JPY with a loss of 20.0 percent in the same period. In contrast, the USD was able to rally 3.4 percent.
The South Pacific currencies recuperated the gains of two-days as asset prices exalted across the globe in expectation of today’s Fed announcements. As a result, the NZD depreciated against all of its 16 trading counterparts in reaction of a statement of the nation’s Finance Minister, in which he pledge for a debasing currency to strengthen the economy. In the meantime the AUD benefited from reports that leading indicators improved in July, but was limited by shrinking risk appetite of the investors before the FOMC minutes today. Therefore the NZD slid 0.2 percent and was at 82.20 U.S. cents following a rise of 1 percent to 82.49 yesterday, the best since the 16th of May. The AUD was at 0.9345 USD snapping two-day wins of 1.2 percent.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379484096961.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-19-2013, 10:54 AM
Yesterday’s announcement of the Federal Reserve hit economists and strategists as a complete surprise. In contrast to the expected reduction of the monthly bond purchasing of 85 billion USD to 75 billion USD, the Fed abstained and expressed that they need more evidence for a long-term recovery of the economy as well as a strengthening of labor market. Furthermore, a prematurely increase in interest rates might affect the improvement of the business. Bernanke emphasized that “conditions in the job market today are still far from what all of us would like to see” in a statement in Washington yesterday. Future potential reduction will not follow a fixed schedule but will be based on economic data like the outlooks for growth and labor market. A throttling might be implemented after the unemployment rate remains “considerably below” 6.5 percent and the inflation will not appreciate above 2.5 percent. In addition, the central bank cut its growth estimates for this year to 2 percent from 2.3 percent as well as the next one. As a result, the markets showed strong movements. U.S. shares climbed, Treasuries and gold advanced due to the reawakening investors’ appetite for so-called safer assets. The S&P 500 added 1.2 percent and was at 1,725.48, while the yield for government bonds declined by 15 basis points to 2.7 percent and XAU/USD showed a boost of 55.61 USD to 1,366.25 USD. Also Crude Oil picked up the growing demand for commodities and rallied more than 2.5 percent to 108.25. The EUR/USD jumped to close to seven-month high at 1.3542 yesterday and kept its level around 1.3526 today. The U.S. counterpart fetched 0.1 percent to 98.08 JPY following a drop of 1.4 percent to 97.76 yesterday, the weakest since the 29th of August. Meanwhile, the JPY shrank 0.2 percent to 132.63 versus the EUR.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379573527121.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-20-2013, 10:45 AM
Investors increased their risk appetite, after the surprising refraining of the Federal Reserve to cut their current bond purchasing program. In succession, the capital markets are still flooded with cheap liquidity. Therefore the demand for safer assets like gold or Crude oil declined, while Asian stocks benefited. Spot gold shrank 0.2 percent to 1,363.89 USD and diminished their first weekly gain this month to 2.8 percent. Also silver lost against the USD 0.6 percent by dropping to 22.94 USD and the S&P 500 Index futures declined 0.1 percent. Crude Oil tumbled 0.3 percent and traded at 105.75 USD per barrel, the second day in a row following yesterday’s 1.6 percent loss, which was caused by Libya’s increasing oil production as well as the announcement by Syria’s President al-Assad to make the information for chemical weapons available.
Meanwhile, estimates predict that today releasing consumer confidence of the European Union rallied to best level in more than two years. Besides the euro zone, Japan will publish tonight figures on department and convenience store sales for August. In expectation, the JPY recovered 0.1 percent and was at 99.32 USD, after having established yesterday the biggest intraday slide with 1.5 percent since the 1st of August.
Concerns for the UK economy grew as yesterday’s government report revealed unexpectedly that retail sales showed a break-in of 0.9 percent in August compared to economists’ forecasts of a 0.4 percent advance and in succession the GBP tumbled against nearly all of its most traded counterparts; especially the GBP/USD depreciated to the lowest level in more than seven weeks by losing 0.6 percent. In addition, the previous day released Minutes of the Bank of England exposed that the Kingdom will keep its monetary easing program at 375 billion GBP and also the key interest rate remained unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent. The GBP/USD was at 1.6049 USD after performing a jump of as much as 1.6 percent. According to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the GBP convinced with a strengthening of 5.6 percent in the past six months, the most of all 10 tracked currencies compared to the EUR, which added 4.2 percent and the USD, which shrank 1.3 percent.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379659423621.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-23-2013, 10:17 AM
The dollar fell to its lowest level since February as markets were whipsawed by Federal Reserve communications on keeping monthly bond purchases unabated depending on the strength of the economy. The U.S. currency fell against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers for a third-straight week as the U.S. central bank announced Sept. 18 it kept $85 billion in monthly bond purchases unchanged, compared with a Bloomberg survey forecasting a $5 billion reduction. The dollar rose yesterday after Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a “small tapering” was possible in October. The euro’s rally was the most since July as the currency’s economy emerges from a record-long recession and German Chancellor Angela Merkel stands for re-election tomorrow. “The market has really been twisted back and forth by the Fed this week,” Peter Gorra, the chief dealer in New York at BNP Paribas SA, said in a phone interview yesterday. “With this dovish call, people really had to go to the market to put risk on, which obviously gets ugly in these volatile events.” The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of a basket of 10 leading global currencies against the dollar, fell 1 percent this week to 1,013.28 in New York. It reached 1,006.40 on Sept. 19, the lowest level on a closing basis since Feb. 20. The dollar weakened 1.7 percent to $1.3524 per euro. The U.S. currency was little changed at 99.36 yen. Japan’s currency lost 1.7 percent to 134.37 versus Europe’s 17-nation common tender, touching the weakest level since November 2009. Hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets the euro will gain against the dollar to almost the highest level since July 2011, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The difference in the number of wagers by on a gain in the currency compared with those on a loss -- known as net longs -- was 31,907 on Sept. 10, compared with 12,696 a week earlier. Currency volatility as measured by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G-7 Volatility Index rose to 8.94 percent after touching 8.55 percent on Sept. 18, the lowest since January. An equally weighted basket of so-called BRICS emerging-market currencies rallied for a third week. BRICS refers to Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379916979931.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-24-2013, 10:34 AM
The dollar weakened for a second day against the yen as Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said policy makers must “forcefully” push against economic headwinds. The U.S. currency fell versus the majority of 16 major peers as Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart, who has backed the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchases that were retained last week, said policy should focus on creating a more dynamic economy. The yen gained against most of its major peers as U.S. two-year note yields have dropped 20 basis points since reaching 0.53 percent on Sept. 6, the highest level since May 2011. The 17-member currency fell versus the dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he’s ready to deploy another long-term refinancing operation, if needed. “The U.S. dollar continues to trade near lows versus the euro and other major foreign-exchange counterparts,” David Rodriguez, quantitative strategist in New York at DailyFX, wrote today in a client note. “But the fact that the greenback continues to hold key lows suggests that traders are not yet willing to force larger dollar weakness.” The dollar weakened 0.5 percent to 98.85 yen at 5 p.m. New York time, after dropping 0.1 percent on Sept. 20. The greenback lost 0.2 percent to $1.3493 per euro. The yen advanced 0.7 percent versus the common currency to 133.37. The U.S. dollar fell after policy makers said on Sept. 18 that they want more proof of an economic recovery before curbing their bond-purchase program, known as quantitative easing, surprising analysts who predicted a $5 billion cut. The dollar may also stay under pressure as a deadline on increasing the U.S. government’s debt ceiling approaches, according to UBS AG. “Dudley expressed support for the Fed’s decision to keep accommodation as it is,” Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist for Gain Capital Group LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview. “That sort of dovish commentary is going to keep pressure on the dollar.” The dollar may break key levels of resistance versus the yen at 101.53, and then 103.74, the May high, according to a client note written by UBS technical strategist Richard Adcock. Beyond that, he said the focus is on the 105.75 level, which would be the highest in almost five years.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380004396661.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-25-2013, 10:50 AM
The dollar rose amid speculation Federal Reserve officials are still intending to slow the pace of asset purchases that have debased the currency. The U.S. currency strengthened versus most of its major counterparts amid commentary from regional Fed presidents, one day after New York Fed President William C. Dudley said tapering was possible this year, depending on economic
data. The Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened as Asian stocks declined, reducing demand for the region’s higher-yielding assets. The pound fell as a gauge of mortgage approvals rose less than forecast. “The market is squaring up positions on the dollar after its decline starting last week,” Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at the currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., said in a telephone interview. “The Fed speakers today were pretty much a non-event. It’s going to come down to the data over the next few weeks.” The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, rose 0.2 percent to 1,013.76 at 3:21 p.m. New York time after climbing to the highest level since Sept. 18.
The U.S. currency strengthened 0.1 percent to $1.3478 per euro after rising 0.2 percent yesterday. The greenback was little changed at 98.85 yen. The euro dropped 0.1 percent to 133.21 yen. The dollar fell 2 percent in the past month, the biggest decline after the yen, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes that track 10 developed-nation currencies.
The yen slid 2.1 percent and the euro fell 1.2 percent. This year, the greenback is up 2.8 percent, the euro has gained 5.2 percent and yen is down 11.1 percent. The New Zealand dollar fell versus all 31 of its most-traded counterparts as declines in global stocks reduced investor appetite for higher-yielding assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares fell 0.6 percent. The kiwi tumbled 1.1 percent to 82.80 U.S. cents after decreasing 1.3 percent, the most since Aug. 21. Australia’s dollar dropped 0.4 percent to 93.92 U.S. cents. “The equity markets opened on a softer foot and we’re seeing a bit of weakness in the Aussie dollar as some risk comes off the table,” said Jim Vrondas, chief currency and payment strategist at OzForex Ltd. in Sydney. “I don’t expect it to have a long-lasting effect.” Hungary’s forint depreciated against the majority of its major peers as the country’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low after inflation slowed. The currency slid 0.4 percent to 222.14 per dollar and declined 0.3 percent to 299.36 per euro.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380091394421.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-26-2013, 11:31 AM
The euro advanced versus the dollar on signs of economic strength in the 17-nation region and concern Washington budget talks may lead to a federal shutdown. The shared currency gained versus most of its major peers as consumer confidence in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, increased more than estimated. The yen gained against a majority of its most-traded counterparts amid reduced risk demand. New Zealand’s dollar fell after the nation’s trade deficit unexpectedly widened. The Swedish krona dropped for a fourth day against the dollar as consumer confidence worsened in September. “Strength in the euro is very supported by the German consumer confidence data,” Ravi Bharadwaj, a Boston-based senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, a unit of Western Union Co., said in a telephone interview. “Most market participants are also very aware of previous shutdowns in the U.S., and are behaving accordingly.” The euro appreciated 0.4 percent to $1.3521 per dollar at 2:06 p.m. New York time. The common currency rose 0.2 percent to 133.28 per yen. The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 98.57 yen. The Brazilian real has gained 7.2 percent versus the greenback this month, while the yen has declined 0.4 percent. The quarter, New Zealand’s dollar has led all major gainers with a 6.7 percent increase, while the worst-performing South African rand has slipped 0.8 percent. Denmark’s krone is the best-performing currency in 2013 and the rand has plunged 14.9 percent. Sweden’s krona extended its longest losing streak since June as a gauge of consumer confidence fell to 98 in September from 98.8 a month earlier. The nation also sold its remaining 7 percent stake in Nordea Bank AB (NDA), the Nordic region’s largest lender, for 21.6 billion kronor ($3.36 billion) to institutional domestic and international investors, it said today. The krona dropped 0.3 percent to 6.4194 per dollar and weakened 0.7 percent to 8.6791 per euro. South Korea’s won fell the most in more than a month on speculation authorities will intervene to slow gains after global demand for local shares boosted the currency to an eight-month high last week. The won depreciated 0.5 percent to 1,077.23 after falling the most since Aug. 22. The New Zealand dollar fell for a second day against the dollar after the government said the nation’s trade deficit widened to NZ$1.2 billion ($987 million) in August, the biggest shortfall in five years. The kiwi declined 0.4 percent to 82.53 U.S. cents.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380180555441.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-30-2013, 09:07 AM
The Italian government has been torn apart by legal troubles facing Berlusconi, after allies of him said they planned to quit the cabinet. In addition the risk increased that the U.S. political budget wrangling might lead to a U.S. government shutdown starting tomorrow. The USD declined to a one-month low versus the JPY with Congress deadlocked over Republicans’ insistence on delaying the 2010 health-care law. Japan’s currency rose versus all its most traded counterparts as the demand for safe assets increased. The EUR/JPY touched a three week low and was at 132.06. The USD extended its largest weekly decrease to 97.79 JPY. The EUR depreciated 0.2 percent to 1.3492 USD. For the past three month the JPY fell 2 percent and since December 2012 even 10 percent. The USD weakened 3.5 percent in the past three months while the EUR was able to gain 5.3 percent in the same time period. Last Friday the Dow Jones index of shares weakened 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index slid 0.4 percent.
The market forecasted that today a report by HSBC Holding will show Chinese manufacturing index strengthened to 51.2 in September from 50.1 previously. The official data will be released tomorrow and might also show a rose to 51.6 this month. Nevertheless the AUD fell to a two week low against the USD before the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to meet tomorrow and investors estimate that they will leave borrowing costs unchanged. Furthermore a report today showed that building permits advanced less than expected last month. The AUD tumbled 0.6
percent to 91.02 JPY and the NZD weakened 0.5 percent to 80.88 JPY.
Yesterday the ECB said that policy discussions in Athens will be paused and allow technical work to be completed. A joint mission by the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund said that the Greek economic program has made good progress till now.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380515493021.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-02-2013, 08:41 AM
Obama accused Republicans of taking the government hostage in order to sabotage his signature health care law, which is the most ambitious U.S. social program in five decades. The Republicans believe that the Affordable Care Act is a dangerous extension of government power and are therefore trying to undermine it with continued government funding. But the bigger battle in the White House approaches in coming weeks, when Congress must raise the debt limit or risk a U.S. default that could roil global markets. The stock markets are still taking the news in stride and are confident that a deal might be reached soon. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares rose 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index climbed even 0.8 percent. Economists forecasted that today a report will show U.S. companies added 180,000 to their payrolls in the past month.
Today the European Central Bank is going to meet for the first time since President Mario Draghi said that he is ready to deploy another long-term refinancing operation to inject funds into banking system. Investors forecasted that the European Central Bank will leave interest rate unchanged at a record low. The EUR declined from an eight-month high versus the USD and traded at 1.3519. The EUR/JPY was at 132.55 and the USD/JPY touched 98.03.
Canada’s currency depreciated versus against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as the U.S. government began its partial shutdown which would cost the U.S. at least $300 million a day in lost economic output at the start. The AUD increased 1 percent versus the CAD to 0.9702 and the USD/CAD was at 1.0322. The market estimated that a report will show Australia’s trade deficit shrank and building approvals climbed. As a result the AUD was close to its highest level in a week versus the USD after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept borrowing costs unchanged yesterday. The AUD/USD was at 0.9387 and the NZD/USD dropped 0.3 percent to 0.8254.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380688877891.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-03-2013, 10:41 AM
Yesterday President Barack Obama met with Republican and Democratic leaders in Congressand tried to break a deadlock that has shut down wide swaths of the federal government. But a solution seemed unlikely as both sides dug in for what could be a long stalemate while hundreds of thousands of federal employees faced a second day without pay. The Dow Jones index of equities tumbled 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index shrank 0.1 percent.
Yesterday European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he’s ready to take any necessary measures to keep money-market rates in check as he tries to steer Europe’s banks through the early stages of an economic recovery. He did not clearly announced new liquidity measures. The ECB’s Governing Council left as forecasted its main refinancing rate at a record low of 0.5 percent for a fifth month. The ECB pumped more than 1 trillion euros of three year loans into the financial system during the debt crisis. The health of the euro region’s economy has shown signs of improving since last month’s ECB meeting and economic confidence climbed for a fifth month. In addition factory output showed a third month of expansion. As a result the EUR appreciated to
1.3607 versus the USD and the EUR/JPY was at 132.20. The USD declined 0.7 percent to 97.36 JPY. Yesterday the JPY gained after Japanese Prime Minister Abe introduced tax breaks for companies with a 5 trillion yen program to boost economic recovery. Today economists forecasted that a report will show retail sales in the euro area increased 0.2 percent in August following a 0.1 percent advance from July. Furthermore another report may show today that U.S. jobless claims rose 10,000 to 315,000.
The CAD dropped against the most of its 16 most traded counterparts. The USD/CAD climbed to its highest level for more than two weeks and was at 1.0328. The AUD remained lower versus the USD and traded at 0.9370 and the AUD/JPY touched 91.25.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380782320961.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-04-2013, 09:36 AM
The number of Americans filling new claims for jobless benefits remained at pre-recession levels last week and growth in the massive U.S. service sector dropped in the past month as firms took on fewer new workers. Data showed yesterday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased slightly to 308,000 which is less than economists had estimated. In addition the Institute for Supply Management said yesterday that its services index decreased to 54.4 last month after it was close to an eight-year high in August. Furthermore the U.S. government’s partial shutdown added to concern economic growth will lose momentum. This might also lead to a delay of reducing monetary stimulus of the Federal Reserve. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares decreased 0.9 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index of shares also dropped 0.9 percent. The USD weakened 0.3 percent to 1.3619 versus the EUR. The USD/JPY shrank 0.1 percent to 97.27 and the EUR/JPY traded at 132.52. Yesterday data in the euro area showed that purchasing managers in the services industry climbed to 52.2 from 52.1 which was more than the market had estimated. Everything above 50 is indicating growth. Investors forecasted that today data in the euro area will show producer price index declined in August.
The market estimates that the Reserve Bank of Australia will refrain from cutting borrowing costs this year which might increase demand for the AUD. A private report next week may show that service industries in China increased. China is Australia’s largest trading partner. The AUD advanced to a five day high versus the most of its major peers and was at 0.9224 against the USD. The AUD/JPY was at 91.58.
The U.S. government shutdown reached a third day, raising concern the political gridlock will slow growth of Canada. The USD/CAD touched a two week high around 1.0356 and the CAD/JPY was at 94.09.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380864827521.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-07-2013, 11:38 AM
Yesterday Republican House Speaker John Boehner vowed not to raise the U.S. debt ceiling without a serious conversation about what is driving the debt. He said that the USA is headed towards a default if President Barack Obama does not negotiate until the deadline, which is October the 17th. He added that there were not enough votes in the House of Representatives to pass a clean debt limit bill, without any conditions attached. The Republicans demanded that Democrats agree to delay implementation of the Affordable Cara Act, which President Obama refuses. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew renewed his call for extending a U.S. debt limit to avoid a default which boosted demand for safe haven currencies like the JPY. Japan’s currency increased versus most of its 16 major peers and strengthened 0.3 percent to 97.22 per USD. The EUR/JPY was at 131.95. Last Friday Dow Jones Index of shares rose 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index climbed 0.7 percent.
Concerns increased that Canada’s economy will be hurt by the American government shutdown, as the USA is Canada’s largest trading partner. In addition Canada’s biggest export crude oil declined to 103.50 USD a barrel. The CAD reached a two week low against the USD and dropped versus the most of its 16 most traded peers in the past week. The USD/CAD was at 1.0303. Australia’s currency was able to gain 1.3 percent in the past five days versus the USD. This was even the fourth strengthening in five weeks. The AUD/USD was at 0.9446 and the AUD/JPY trade at 91.84.
In its yesterday report the World Bank said that developing countries should be more willing to take risks that have the potential to spur growth. Too much fear can hinder improvements in living standards. The World Bank’s focus is to end extreme poverty by 2030 and lift incomes of the poorest 40 percent.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381129482551.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-08-2013, 08:41 AM
The U.S. is still in fiscal deadlock but there were signs to find an exit strategy from the crisis as Obama’s secretary said that the President might accept a short-term increase on the nation’s borrowing authority in order to avoid a crisis. But Barack Obama reiterated that he won’t negotiate with Republicans over the debt limit and government shutdown as Senate Democrats began preparing for a test vote on a clean debt-ceiling bill. Nevertheless the USD dropped to its lowest
level in eight weeks versus the JPY and was at 96.67. And the EUR/USD gained 0.2 percent to 1.3581 and the EUR/JPY was at 131.29. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares weakened 0.9 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also dropped also 0.9 percent.
A report showed that optimism in the U.K.’s financial industry reached a 17-year high in the third quarter, underlining the strength of the British economy. As a result the GBP increased versus the most of its major peers and gained 0.5 percent to 1.0691 USD.
New Zealand business confidence advanced to a 14-year high in third quarter, signaling the economy is rebounding from a mid-year slowdown. After this report the NZD rose versus the USD before it declined again to 0.8296. Economic growth in New Zealand dropped 0.2 percent in the second quarter from 0.4 percent three months earlier as a drought curbed farm output. The Reserve Bank announced that they will start to increase interest rates next year as the annual
pace of growth picks up to 3.5 percent. The AUD/USD traded at 0.9431.
Canada’s building permits declined in August from a record high and Canada’s largest export, crude oil, declined while the U.S. government shutdown entered a second week. The USD/CAD fell 0.2 percent to 1.0313.
It has been predicted that the economy of Greece will grow 0.6 percent next year thanks to a rebound in investment and exports including tourism. In addition deputy Finance Minister said yesterday that Greece plans to return to bond market in the second half of next year as he presented the 2014 budget.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381207221571.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-09-2013, 08:52 AM
Yesterday at a conference President Barack Obama said that he would not hold talks on ways to end the fiscal impasse while under threat from conservative Republicans. He would negotiate on budget issues only if they agree to re-open the federal government and raise the debt limit with no conditions. Republican Party speaker John Boehner said afterwards that he is disappointed by the president’s approach. In addition the International Monetary Fund cut its global economic outlook for this year and next as capital outflows further weaken emerging markets. The global growth worldwide will be 2.9 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year, compared with July IMF predictions of 3.1 percent for 2013 and 3.8 percent for 2014. They also warned that a U.S. government default could seriously damage the world economy. As a result Canada’s currency declined to a four week low versus the USD as a government shutdown in its largest trading partner continued. The CAD dropped versus all of its 16 major peers and was at 1.0360 per USD after Canada’s trade deficit unexpectedly widened in August. The USD tumbled against most major peers and fell 0.2 percent to 1.3596 versus the EUR. The USD/JPY was at 96.90 and the EUR/JPY climbed 0.2 percent to 131.74. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 1.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index of shares lost 1.2 percent. Furthermore a White House official said in an email statement that Yellen, the current Fed vice chairman will be nominated to succeed Ben S. Bernanke.
Tomorrow the Bank of England is going to release policy decision and economists forecasted that officials will keep interest rates unchanged and their asset-purchase stimulus target on hold. The GBP/USD increased to 1.6097 and the EUR/GBP was at 0.8436.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381294297711.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-10-2013, 09:00 AM
With pressure rising and no clear path forward for breaking their fiscal impasse, President Barack Obama began inviting lawmakers to the White House yesterday for meetings to discuss the government shutdown and raising the debt limit. Tomorrow the Republican leaders will also meet in the White House as the search intensifies for a way to break an impasse. In addition the minutes from the Fed’s Septermber 17-18 meeting were released yesterday, which suggested there was still broad support to trim bond-buying this year. But the nomination of Janet Yellen fuelled bets that it will maintain policies to spur economic growth. As a result the USD increased from eight-month low versus the JPY and was at 97.65. The EUR/USD declined to 1.3508 and the EUR/JPY traded at 131.88. Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Index of shares strengthened 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index climbed 0.1 percent.
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund urged the European Union to fastly set up an agency that would close or salvage troubled banks across the continent as part of an effort to shed a mountain of bad debt impeding economic recovery. In their Global Financial Stability Report from yesterday the IMF said that investor’s faith in the euro-area bank balances sheets must be restored otherwise the euro area risks might enter a lengthy, chronic phase of low growth and
balance sheet strains.
Today data might show that instustrial output in France and Italy gained and therefore adding to signs that the euro-area economy is recovering. The EUR was close to a one month high versus the GBP before today the bank of England is going to release rates which, according to economists will remain unchanged. The EUR/GBP was at 0.8470 and the GBP/USD traded at 1.5939. Data showed today that unemployment unexpectedly declined in Australia to 5.6 percent from 5.8 percent. The AUD/USD rises befor it declined again to 0.9428.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381381147211.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-11-2013, 08:54 AM
Yesterday the Repuclians signalled new willingness to end a standoff that has shuttered large parts of the U.S. government by offering a plan that would postpone a possible U.S. default. They floated a measure to extend the government’s borrowing authority for several weeks that appeared to be free of the restrictions on healthcare and spending. The White House said it would consider the offer and both sides described the current talks as constructive. But there was no specific determination made during the meeting between the parties in Washington. President Barack Obama has insisted on raising the debt seiling and ending the government shutdown before starting broader fiscal talks. The U.S. government will run out of borrowing authority on October 17. The USD gained versus the JPY to 98.32 and the EUR/USD was nearly unchaged at
1.3520 and the EUR/JPY traded at 133.01. Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 2.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose also 2.2 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent. Crude oil declined to $102.81 a barrel after climbing 1.4 perecnt yesterday. A report on U.S. retail sales scheduled to be released today among those that have been delayed by the government closure. According to economists the shutdown could cost the U.S. economy 0.2 percentage point in growth.
Economists forecasted that tomorrow a report will show that imports by China, which is Australia’s largest trading partner, increased for a third-straight month. Chinese imports may appreciated 7 percent in the past month from a year earlier after rising by the same amount in August. In addition exports may have advanced 5.5 percent after a 7.2 percent rose in August. Australia’s currency held gains versus most of its 16 majorcounterparts this week and headed even for a second weekly advance. The AUD/USD was little changed at 94.55 and the AUD/JPY traded at 93.19.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381467241871.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-14-2013, 09:43 AM
The dollar weakened against the yen as U.S. lawmakers struggled to find a resolution to the fiscal impasse as an unprecedented default looms. The yen strengthened against all its major developed peers as demand for Japan’s currency waxed amid concern the political standoff in the world’s biggest economy won’t be broken. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the congressional deadlock is threatening the U.S. and world economies.
The currencies of Australia and New Zealand fell after China unexpectedly reported a decline in exports. “As the U.S. partial shutdown nears its two-week anniversary, progress remains scant on resolving the political impasse,” Sharon Zollner, a senior economist in Wellington at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., wrote in a note to clients. “The yen is considered the optimal place to invest given U.S. troubles. This should see yen strengthen.” The dollar dropped 0.5 percent to 98.10 yen as of 7:06 a.m. in Sydney, heading for its first decline in five days. It depreciated 0.2 percent to $1.3566 per euro, after sliding on Oct. 3 to an eight-month low of $1.3646. Europe’s 17-nation shared currency weakened 0.3 percent to 133.08 yen. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who
started talks Oct. 12 with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, said yesterday he’s “in conversation” with McConnell and is “confident” Republicans will agree to open the government and raise the debt ceiling. Without an increase in the limit, the government will exhaust its borrowing authority on Oct. 17, according to the Treasury Department. “If there is that degree of disruption, that lack of certainty, that lack of trust in the U.S. signature, it would mean massive disruption the world over,” the IMF’s Lagarde said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program about the impact of not raising the borrowing limit. “And we would be at risk of tipping, yet again, into recession.” Democratic lawmakers warned over the weekend that a lack of movement may have an effect on financial markets. U.S. stock markets will be open on the federal Columbus Day holiday today.
Bond markets will be closed. Japan’s markets are closed today for a holiday. The Aussie dollar snapped three days of gains after official Chinese data showed overseas shipments fell 0.3 percent last month from a year earlier, trailing all 46 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381729337851.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-15-2013, 11:07 AM
The dollar fell versus 11 of its 16 most-traded counterparts as U.S. lawmakers struggled to resolve a political impasse over raising the nation’s debt limit and ending a partial shutdown of the government. The greenback erased its first loss in five days versus the yen after President Barack Obama summoned congressional leaders to the White House and Democratic and Republican Senate leaders said they’re optimistic about reaching an agreement. New Zealand’s dollar gained after data showed home prices rose to a record. A measure of volatility among Group of Seven nations’ currencies fell to the lowest since January. “The debt issues are dominating people’s thinking,” Brad Bechtel, the managing director at Faros Trading LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a phone interview. “The market’s not willing to really bet too heavily on the outcome until they really see the news.” The dollar was little changed at 98.57 yen at 5 p.m. New York time after weakening earlier as much as 0.5 percent to 98.08 yen. It rose 1.9 percent in the previous four days. The greenback fell 0.1 percent to $1.3561 per euro. Japan’s currency declined 0.1 percent to 133.67 per euro after weakening to 133.60 on Oct. 11, the least since Sept. 26. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency’s performance against a basket of 10 leading counterparts, slid as much as 0.23 percent, the biggest intraday drop since Oct. 2, to 1,010.07 before trading at 1,011.21, down 0.12 percent. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G-7 Volatility Index, a gauge of price swings, touched 8.21 percent, the lowest intraday level since Jan. 23. The gauge has dropped from this year’s high of 11.96 percent on June 24. The 2013 average is 9.47 percent. New Zealand’s dollar, nicknamed the kiwi, climbed versus all of its 16 most-traded counterpartsafter the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand said a home-price index rose 0.8 percent in September from a month earlier to an all-time high. The kiwi gained 0.4 percent to 83.57 U.S. cents and touched 83.81 cents, the highest level since Sept. 24. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said they’re optimistic about ending the government shutdown and preventing the nation from breaching the debt ceiling. Without an agreement, U.S. borrowing authority lapses Oct. 17. The federal government would start missing payments sometime between Oct. 22 and Oct. 31, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Risk appetite improved, and stocks rose. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (SPX) Index advanced 0.4 percent after declining 0.7 percent earlier.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381822091871.jpg (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-16-2013, 10:20 AM
The dollar gained versus the euro for the first time in three days as the House and Senate worked on competing plans to end the two-week government shutdown and keep the U.S. from exhausting its ability to borrow money. The yen jumped from a two-week low versus the U.S. currency as Senate leaders said talks on a bipartisan plan were put on hold two days before the debt-limit deadline while the House considers its competing measure. A currency-volatility gauge rose from an eight-month low. Australia’s dollar climbed amid bets the central bank won’t raise interest rates soon, while Norway’s krone slid as the nation’s trade surplus shrank. “A deal looked possible over the weekend, and we’ve had nothing but negative news and the latest sentiment is definitely negative,” Chris Gaffney, senior market strategist at Everbank Wealth Management Inc., said in an interview from St. Louis. “The yen is seen as a safe-haven currency, and it’s getting a lot of interest because of that.” The dollar appreciated 0.3 percent to $1.3520 per euro at 3:43 p.m. New York time. It reached $1.3480, the strongest level since Sept. 30, before the U.S. government shutdown. The greenback sank as much as 0.4 percent to 98.17 yen before trading at 98.31 yen, down 0.3 percent. Earlier it touched 98.70 yen, the strongest level since Oct. 1. The euro slid 0.5 percent to 132.97 yen. Norway’s krone fell against all of its 16 most-traded peers as a report showed the nation’s trade surplus decreased in September, while separate data showed house prices fell more than economists forecast in the third quarter. “This disappointing data we’ve had today has probably seen investors take a step back from entering long-krone positions,” Michael Sneyd, a foreign-exchange strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London, said of the currency. “The trade balance has narrowed quite significantly.”
Long positions are bets an asset will gain in value. The krone weakened 0.9 percent to 6.0283 per dollar and lost 0.5 percent to 8.1462 per euro. Australia’s dollar climbed to the highest level since June versus the U.S. currency as traders pared wagers for further interest-rate cuts by the central bank this year. Minutes of its Oct 1 meeting showed policy makers agreed “the bank should again neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them.” The Aussie advanced 0.3 percent to 95.15 U.S. cents and touched 95.48 U.S. cents, the strongest since June 19.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381904415811.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-17-2013, 11:08 AM
Higher-yielding currencies including South Africa’s rand and Mexico’s peso rallied versus the dollar as a tentative U.S. agreement to extend the nation’s borrowing ability prompted an increase in investors’ risk appetite. The yen fell versus all of its 16 most-traded peers amid ebbing haven demand as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell announced an accord to end the government shutdown and push fiscal deadlines into next year. Votes may come today, and House Republicans signaled they’ll allow it to pass. New Zealand’s dollar reached a four-week high as inflation fueled bets interest rates will rise. he dollar was little changed versus the euro at $1.3528 after weakening earlier as much as 0.3 percent and appreciating 0.4 percent. It touched $1.3473, the strongest since Sept. 30. “We’ve just had a hairy run thanks to Washington, and that hasn’t caused euro-dollar to break,” Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, said in a phone interview. “I don’t think the catalyst to buy dollar on this current resolution is sufficient to drive the dollar higher at this point.” A gauge of price swings among Group of Seven nations’ currencies rose from the lowest level in almost nine months. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s G-7 Volatility Index increased to as much as 8.27 percent after dropping to 8.17 percent yesterday, the least since Jan. 23. The 2013 average is 9.46 percent. U.S. stocks climbed, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rising 1.2 percent.
The U.K. markets regulator opened a formal investigation of currency-rate trading amid allegations of manipulation in the $5.3 trillion-a-day market that have triggered similar probes in the U.S. and Switzerland. “We are gathering information from a wide range of sources including market participants,” the Financial Conduct Authority said in an e-mailed statement today. “Our investigations are at an early stage and it will be some time before we conclude whether there has been any misconduct which will lead to enforcement action.” Traders at some banks may have pooled information about their positions through instant messages and used client orders to movebenchmark currency rates, Bloomberg News reported in June. The FCA said at the time it was reviewing the allegations.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1381993487851.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-18-2013, 09:32 AM
The greenback lost the most in a month versus the euro as Fed Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said fiscal discord has undermined the case for slowing the central bank’s bond purchases, which tend to debase the dollar. A 16-day government shutdown ended after Congress approved a deal yesterday extending funding and debt-limit deadlines into next year. The pound climbed after U.K. retail sales rose more than forecast. “Tapering is looking less and less likely,” Richard Franulovich, the chief currency strategist for the northern hemisphere at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) in New York, said in a phone interview. “In the next few months, there’s a window of opportunity for currencies and risk assets to rally across the board against the dollar.” The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index slumped 0.9 percent to 1,002.65 at 5 p.m. New York time and reached 1,002.41, the least since Feb. 14. It breached the lower of the 20-day Bollinger bands, a technical indicator, signaling prices may have fallen too far, too fast. The dollar sank 1 percent to $1.3675 per euro and fell as much as 1.1 percent, the biggest intraday drop since Sept. 18.It touched $1.3682, the weakest level since Feb. 1. The U.S. currency slid 0.9 percent to 97.91 yen after gaining earlier to 99.01, the strongest since Sept. 27. The euro rose 0.2 percent to 133.90 yen. The pound strengthened as much as 1.4 percent, the biggest intraday gain since Sept. 18, to $1.6172 before trading at $1.6165, up 1.3 percent. President Barack Obama signed into law the measure to fund the U.S. government through Jan. 15, 2014, and extend its borrowing authority until Feb. 7, setting up another round of confrontations. The accord was reached a day after Fitch Ratings said it may cut the U.S. AAA credit grade, citing the inability to raise the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling in a timely manner. “It wasn’t a good deal for the dollar,” Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro Group Ltd. in London, said in a phone interview. “Obviously the uncertainties of the debt ceiling and government shutdown are only delayed. It’s going to be dollar-negative in the next three months.” The Fed buys $85 billion of bonds a month to put pressure on long-term borrowing rates and spur growth. Policy makers unexpectedly refrained from reducing the purchases last month, saying they wanted more evidence of an economic recovery.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1382074290291.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-21-2013, 08:56 AM
On Friday, the statistics bureau expressed the growth of the Chinese business accelerated to 7.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. It is revising a slowdown of the economy, which forced the government to admit the risk for missing its 7.3 percent strengthening rate for this year. Next week, the leading politicians will gather next month to debate on policies to reform the current economy, which should grant a long-term appreciation of the Chinese business about 7 percent. Among others, the current government will benefit financial aids to small corporates and will adopt measures to stabilize foreign trade growth by cutting overcapacity and looking for new ways to boost the consumption.
Japan’s currency dropped against nearly all of its most traded counterparts after the nation announced a bigger-than-estimated trade deficit. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan’s Governor demanded a continuation of the monetary easing policy to achieve a stable inflation. In September the imports rose above the exports by 932.1 billion JPY, which was more than the 918.6 billion the economists has predicted and compared to the revised 962.8 billion deficits in August. Also, Japan’s Prime Minister Abe presented plans to use the current easing to improve the economy by implementing additional measures in an extraordinary session of the parliament last week. As a result, the JPY dropped 0.3 percent to 97.98 against the USD and it lost 0.1 percent to 133.96 versus the EUR.
Besides the JPY, also the NZD and the AUD slid against its U.S. counterpart and the NZD advanced versus the AUD after net immigration rose to the highest within a decade. Therefore the AUD/USD declined 0.3 percent and was at 0.9653 following a strengthening to 0.9678 at the end of last week, the best since the 4th of June. The NZD decreased 0.1 percent towards the USD and traded at 84.92 U.S. cents.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1382331239511.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-22-2013, 09:47 AM
Just in time for today releasing data of the U.S. economy, the speculations of a potential reduction of the Federal Reserve’s easing measures gained new momentum. As a result, the USD weakened in a monthly slide against nearly all of its most traded currency counterparts as the U.S. unemployment rate might be remaining above the target set by the Fed to start paring asset purchases. Economists agree that a slightly better-than-estimated payrolls number will not lead to boost in the demand for the USD. Furthermore, they explained the probability is high that disappointing figures might cause an even bigger drop of the U.S. currency. According to forecasts by Bloomberg News, the Labor Department could publish that 180,000 workers were added in September following a rise of 169,000 the month before. Therefore the jobless rate might be kept at 7.3 percent, the lowest in 54 months. But this is still far away from the demanded unemployment rate below 6.5 percent by the central bank and the strategists assume a shift of first reduction steps to March 2014. Also, the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes showed that the USD lost 2.8 percent in the last three months compared to the other nine tracked currencies, which was the weakest within the set of gauges. Meanwhile, the EUR rallied 1.2 percent and the JPY dropped 1.3 percent in the same period. The EUR/USD remained nearly unchanged at 1.3665 after briefly reaching 1.3704 on the 18th of October, the highest since February. The JPY advanced 0.1 percent to 98.32 against the USD following a rise of 0.5 percent yesterday. Besides the USD, the EUR declined versus the JPY and traded at 134.35.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1382420725821.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-23-2013, 10:07 AM
After yesterday’s drop of the USD close to a 24 months low, today releasing data of the U.S. economy might increase the probability that the Federal Reserve might keep their monthly easing measures for longer to continue supporting growth and a debasing of the nation’s currency. Also the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1 percent to 998.15 from 999.46, the lowest within eight months as employers failed to reach the economists’ expectation and added fewer jobs, referring to annuncements by the Labor Department. The U.S. Dollar Index tracks the USD versus the 10 most important trading counterparts. As a result, the downward pressure on the U.S. currency is strengthening. Yesterday’s Labor market data showed that the number of new jobs increased by 148,000 in September, weaker than the estimated 180,000 workers by Bloomberg economists.
Tomorrow, the Labor Department is scheduled to publish the jobless claims, which probably rallied up by 11,000 to 2.87 million in the week ended on the 12th of October.
Besides the U.S. economy, also data of the European member states will be releasing today. Thefocus is set especially on the consumer sentiment index published by the European Commission, which might showed a rise to minus 14.5 in October, the best since July 2011. In the past month,the EUR has climbed 1.2 percent against the basket of developed currencies tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the strongest performance after the 2.3 percent boost of the AUD. In comparison, the USD slid 1.3 percent and the JPY declined 0.1 percent. Benefitting from the weakening demand for the USD, the EUR succeeded to climb to a four-year peak against the JPY. The EUR/USD is currently at yesterday’s close around 1.3792, the highest since
November 2011. The USD tumbled 0.4 percent to 97.75 JPY, while the EUR dropped 0.3 percent versus the JPY and was at 134.80 JPY after having briefly reached 135.51 the day before, the best since November 2009.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1382508190431.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-24-2013, 10:07 AM
Tonight, a report showed that China’s manufacturing spurred this month by exceeding the economists’ expectations. The majority of strategists evaluated this as sign for a continuing strengthening of the nation’s business, which might continue for the whole fourth quarter. The preliminary reading of the Purchasing Manager’s Index climbed to 50.9 from 50.2 above the predicted 50.4 by Bloomberg News. In a statement, Premier Li expressed his intention to maintain the current loose policy to support the countries growth to snap the slowdown from the first half of this year as well as to achieve the set economic aims for 2013.
Today, a range of important data of the U.S. economy will be released. Especially, today’s announcement by the Labor Department might have huge influence on the demand for the USD, after disappointing announcements on Tuesday. Speculations grew that the schedule for the reduction of the monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve will be delayed due to the partial government shut down at the beginning of October, which wad caused by the reaching of the debt ceiling and the tough negotiations between the both parties on the conditions for a raising. According to a report of the President’s chief adviser, the shut down generated a reduction of economic growth in this quarter of 0.25 percentage points as well as a loss of 120,000 jobs in October. Today’s report of the Labor Markt Department might confirm that continuing jobless claims increased to 2.87 million in the last week from 2.86 the week before, while first-time claims probably dropped to 340,000 from 358,000 in the same period. As a result, the USD lost 0.1 percent versus the EUR and was at 1.3790 after having reached the weakest since November 2011 at around 1.3793 yesterday. Also the JPY advanced 0.1 percent against the USD and traded at 97.30 following a slide of 0.8 percent the previous day.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1382594801181.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-25-2013, 09:50 AM
Asian stocks tumbled by parting two weeks of consecutive gains as world largest camera maker Canon reduced its prospects of the annual profits and South Korea’s biggest steelmaker, Posco, lowered the estimates for their sales outlook for 2013 in consequence to their disappointing third quarter earnings, which remained behind the expectations of many economists. Benefiting from this, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil succeeded to appreciate to 97.36 USD per barrel. In contrast , Gold fell 0.2 percent agains the USD and traded at 1,343.86 an ounce, after having boosted 1 percent yesterday. Also the statement of New Zealand’s central bank Governor Wheeler in an radio interview that “increasing interest rates would put upward pressure on the exchange rate and damage our traded gooda sector. We are quite concerned about that risk.” As a result, the NZD continued its losing streak versus the AUD widening this weeks drop to 1.4
percent completing the fifth weekof declining, the longest period since May 2012. The AUD/NZD climbed 0.2 percent to 1.1542, while the USD advanced by 0.5 percent against the NZD to 0.8314 by reaching 0.8298, the strongest since the 14th of October. Also, all other most traded peers enforced towards the NZD.
Estimates of the today releasing IFO institute’s business climate index for Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, might rally to 108 in October from 107.7 in the previous month. If this would be the case, the index has ascended to the best level since April 2012. In contrast, forecast and gauges assume a slide of the Thmson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 75.0 this month, the weakest since the beginning of 2013, from 77.5 in September. A separate poll by Bloomberg median survey reflects a high probability that the U.S. durable goods orders may increase 2.3 percent in September following a 0.1 percent surplus in August. The USD was able to keep its current level against EUR and JPY, while many economists’ are set their expectations on the next scheduled Federal Reserve meeting on the 29th and 30th of October.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1382679978161.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-28-2013, 10:27 AM
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Index of shares climbed 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose also 0.4 percent and completed a third week of gain. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve is going to start a two-day meeting and investors estimated that policy makers will refrain from tapering stimulus. They might delay lowering 85 billios USD bond buying program until March, according to economists. Last month, the U.S. payrolls appreciated less than forecasted and the 16-day government shutdown took at least 24 billion USD out of the economy.
Beyond that Japan’s currency extended its three week drop versus the EUR after Deputy Governor repeated the Bank of Japan’s commitment to increase monetary easing. He said that they will continue to buy bonds until it achieves its 2 perent inflation target. Referring to him, the monetary and fiscal policies are at a critical point for ending deflation. The JPY fell 0.1 percent to 134.61 versus the EUR and the USD/JPY climbed 0.1 percent to 97.51. The EUR touched 1.3812 which is the most since November 2011.
Last week, the Bank of Canada announced that they will sustain the pace of bond purchases to engineer a stronger economic recovery. This Thursday, a report may show that Canada’s economy climbed 1.7 percent in August from a year earlier, according to economists. But Canada’s largest export, crude oil, declined below 100 USD a barrel for the first time since July. The USD/CAD was at 1.0444.
Australia’s currency appreciated versus the most of its major coutnerparts as climbing Asian stock supported demand for higher yielding assets. Speculations came up that New Zealands central bank Governor Wheeler sill signal interest-rate advances as he decides on monetary policy this week. The NZD/USD traded at 0.8306 and the AUD/USD was at 0.9611.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1382941564321.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-29-2013, 11:29 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Index of shares remained unchanged and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 0.1 percent. Today, the Federal Reserve is going to start a two day meeting and it is estimated that the Fed will delay slowing its 85 billion USD of monthly bond purchase program until March, so they might continue to debase the USD by pushing down long-term yields.
Furthermore the partial government shutdown in this month trimmed 0.25 percentage point from fourth-quarter economic growth and cost the U.S. 120,000 jobs in October according to Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser. Beyond that a report today is predicted to show that U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a five-month low around 75 from 79.7. In addition, economists forecasted that another report today will show no change in retail sales in the past month from the
previous month, which might be the worst reading in six months. Another eport might show today that in Europe’s second largest economy consumer sentiment increased to 86 this month. The EUR/USD declined to 1.3780 and the EUR/JPY was at 134.54. The USD/JPY traded at 97.63.
Data showed that retail sales in Japan climbed 1.8 percent in September from the previous month, after gaining 0.9 percent in August. As expected the jobless rate declined to 4 percent from 4.1 percent and household spending appreciated 3.7 percent in September in Japan.
Australia’s Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said that the AUD is likely to be lower in the future and is not supported by costs and productivity in the Australian economy. As a result the AUD dropped versus all 16 major currencies and was at 0.9528 USD. The AUD/USD headed for a two week low. The NZD/USD traded at 0.8282.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383031740211.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-30-2013, 11:06 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Index of shares increased 0.7 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index appreciated 0.6 percent. The market estimates that the Federal Reserve, which is going to conclude a policy meeting today, will not announce any major changes to stimulus. They will probably pare its 85 billion USD monthly bond purchase program at its March meeting next year. Last month policy makers refrained from slowing the stimulus to await further evidence of economic recovery. This bond buying program tends to debase the USD and push down longterm yields. In addition economists estimated that today the ADP Research Institute’s report will show U.S. companies added 150,000 workers to payrolls this month after a 166,000 advance in the past month. Furthermore investors forecasted that today data may show consumers in the euro area are the least pessimistic in more than two years and industrial confidence might also have appreciated. The USD held a three-day increase versus the JPY and was at 98.19. The EUR decreased to 1.3736 against the USD and the EUR/JPY traded at 134.90.
The extra yield of Australia’s bonds offer over U.S. coutnerparts dropped to the narrowest this month and damped demand for its assets. As a result, the AUD declined to the lowest level in more than two weeks versus the USD and also extended its loss from yesterday versus most major peers. Beyond that speculation came up New Zealand’s central bank will rise benchmark interest rates by 59 basis points within a year. The AUD/USD traded at 0.9466 and the NZD/USD was at 0.8241.
Tomorrow Japan’s central bank is going to release updates forecast on growth and inflation after its meeting and economists estimated no change to the Japan’s bonds buying program of more than 7 trillion yen a month with its purpose to end deflation.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383116029371.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-31-2013, 11:07 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Index of shares depreciated 0.4 percent and the Standard &
Poor’s Index dropped 0.5 percent. This month the EUR touched a two-year high around 1.3832
before it declined again. It should also be mentioned that the EUR is the best-performer among
the developed-nation currencies. In addition the European Central Bank encourages lenders to
repatriate overseas assets, which reached a record of 613.5 billion euros, so the EUR might be
able to extend its gains.
Yesterday data showed that U.S. consumer price rose less that forecasted to 1.7 percent in the 12 months through September which gave the central bank more flexibility to maintain stimulus, whilte their inflation target is 2 percent. They left unchanged the monthly bond purchase program of 85 billion USD. Today economists forecasted that first time applications for jobless benefits declined to 338,000 in the week ende Oct. 26 from 350,000 the previous week. Furthermore it is estimated that manufacturing appreciated for a fifth month to 55, which indicates growth as long it remains above 50. The EUR/USD fell to 1.3695 before it gains again towards 1.3736. The JPY held near a two-week low against the USD and trade at 98.35. The EUR/JPY was at 135.12.
U.K. consumer confidence declined in this month as the ourlook for the economic situation in the next year worsened. The Gfk consumer sentiment fell 1 point to minus 11 from minus 10 probably caused by the U.S. government shutdown and debt-ceiling negotiations. The U.K. economy increased 0.8 percent in the third quarter, coming from a 0.7 percent gain in the previous three months. Last week the Bank of England Governor said that officials will not tighten monetary policy until they see traction in the recovery. The GBP/USD was at 1.6036.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383203121771.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-01-2013, 11:34 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Index of shares depreciated 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 0.4 percent. Yesterday the European Union’s statistics office said that annual consumer-price index fell to 0.7 percent in October, which is the least since November 2009. In September consumer-price index was at 1.1 percent. Furthermore, the Euro-area unemployment was at a record high at 12.2 percent in September. The European Central Bank said that there is a subdued ourlook for price growth, its nine months now in a row where the rate has been less than its 2 percent ceiling. The ECB policy makers are going to meet next Thursday.
Because of that sings of economic weakness in the euro-area speculation came up that the ECB will cut interest rates. As a result, the EUR dropped to a two-week low versus the USD. Yesterday it even declined 1.11 percent which is the most since June 2012. In addition economists estimated that a report on Monday will show that in France, the second biggest economy in Europe, manufacturing declined. Today the market forecasted that the U.S. Institute for Supply Management might say its manufacturing index was at 55 in the past month from 56.2 in September. This is the highest since April 2011 and reading above 50 indicates growth. The EUR/USD was tumbled to 1.3550 and the EUR/JPY dropped to 133.10. The USD/JPY traded at 98.20.
Today data in China showed that purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 51.4 in the past month, which is the highest since April 2012. China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Beyond that data in Australia showed expanding factory output. As a result the AUD/USD advanced 0.1 percent to 0.9465, after it fell 0.3 percent yesterday. The NZD/USD was at 0.8258.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383291164781.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-04-2013, 10:59 AM
The greenback climbed the most since June against a basket of 10 major peers after the Federal Reserve said it sees economic improvement even as it plans to maintain stimulus while it awaits evidence of further gains. A gauge of currency volatility rose for the first week since August.
Brazil’s real dropped amid concern the nation’s credit rating may be cut. “The weak unemployment and inflation reports that we saw have drained demand for the euro,” Ravi Bharadwaj, a Boston-based senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions, a unit of Western Union Co., said in a phone interview. “These economic measures certainly add to the case for further dovish bias. I would definitely expect the European Central Bank to assume a more cautionary stance on monetary policy.” The euro fell 2.3 percent to $1.3487 this week in New York, the largest decrease since the five days ended July 6, 2012, after reaching an almost two-year high of $1.3832 on Oct. 25. The shared currency weakened 1 percent to 133.08 yen, while the Japanese currency lost 1.3 percent against the dollar to 98.67. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index gained 1.5 percent, the most since the week ended June 21, to 1,015.69. It reached 1,016.58 yesterday, the strongest level since Sept. 18. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Global FX Volatility Index, which monitors price swings among currencies of Group of Seven nations, rose to 8.12 percent yesterday in its first weekly gain since the five days ended Aug. 30. The gauge touched 7.48 percent on Oct. 28, the lowest since December. It has averaged 9.37 percent since the start of the year.
The Brazilian real tumbled as the central bank limited its efforts to support the currency and a widening budget deficit added to concern the nation faces a credit-rating cut. Brazil reported this week a shortfall of 22.9 billion reais ($10.2 billion) in September, versus a 7.6 billion surplus in January. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service this year lowered their outlooks on the country’s credit rating.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383548282971.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-05-2013, 11:14 AM
The 17-nation currency advanced for the first time in three days versus the yen amid speculation the European Central Bank will refrain from cutting interest rates this week, and after data showed manufacturing activities in the region improved. Australia’s dollar rose against all of its 16 mosttraded peers after retail sales increased before the Reserve Bank reviews borrowing costs tomorrow. The pound climbed from a two-week low versus the dollar after U.K. construction output expanded. “We saw some encouraging data on manufacturing in euro zone -- that provided shortcovering opportunities for investors,” Joe Manimbo, a market analyst in Washington at Western Union Business Solutions, a unit of Western Union Co., said in a phone interview. “There’s a growing minority expectation that we could see a cut this week. But even if we don’t, it looks like there’ll a big chance of monetary easing in the not-very-distant future.” A short position is a bet an asset is going to decline in value. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3514 at 5 p.m. New York time after falling to $1.3442, the weakest level since Sept. 18. The common currency gained 0.1 percent to 133.25 yen after sliding 1.7 percent during the previous two days. The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 98.60 yen. The Australian dollar gained for the first time in three days after the Bureau of Statistics said retail sales rose 0.8 percent in September, compared with the median
forecast of 0.4 percent in a Bloomberg survey. “From an interest-rate perspective domestically, there’s a growing view that we have hit the bottom,” said Hans Kunnen, a senior economist at St. George Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “We think the Aussie remains at these levels unless expectations somewhere are totally knocked off the track.” Australia’s dollar jumped 0.8 percent to 95.10 U.S. cents after falling to 94.22 cents on Nov. 1, the weakest level since Oct. 14. The pound strengthened against most major peers after Markit Economics said its index of U.K. construction activity expanded at the fastest pace in six years. “The data is suggesting that the economy is about as good as it can get,” said Gavin Friend, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in London. “We should see a renewed downward focus on the euro against sterling because people are starting to think about the growth divergence.”


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383635643451.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-06-2013, 11:45 AM
Gold slumped to the lowest price in more than two weeks as U.S. service industries grew faster than forecast, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve may start tapering stimulus measures later this year. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index rose to 55.4 in October, a report from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed yesterday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was 54. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The
Bloomberg Dollar Index jumped as much as 0.3 percent against a basket of currencies after the data was released. The economy shows signs of “underlying strength,” Fed policy makers said on Oct. 30. “The better-than-expected ISM number increases speculation whether tapering will begin in December or not,” Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The strength in the greenback continues to work against gold.” The dollar rose to an almost seven-week high after a gauge of service industries climbed more than forecast in October, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to taper monthly bond purchases. The euro dropped against the yen after European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said the economic recovery is “still very green” before the bank’s policy meeting this week.
Japan’s currency appreciated versus most of its 16 most-traded counterparts as the Bank of Japan’s governor said efforts to dispel the country’s deflation are succeeding. Brazil’s real fell against all major peers. The dollar rally “continued with fairly decent readings on the Institute for Supply Management” non-manufacturing index, Fabian Eliasson, head of U.S. currency sales in New York at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411), said in a phone interview. “Overall, the market turned a little bit dollar positive.” The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, rose 0.3 percent to 1,015.86 at 3:31 p.m. New York time after touching 1,016.64. The index reached 1,017 yesterday, the highest since Sept. 18.
The yen rose 0.3 percent to 132.81 per euro after appreciating to 132.37, the strongest level since Oct. 10. Japan’s currency was little changed at 98.56 per dollar. The euro dropped 0.3 percent to $1.3475 after sliding to $1.3442 yesterday, the weakest since Sept. 18.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383723798821.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-07-2013, 12:04 PM
The euro rose against the dollar and the yen as a gauge showed the region’s services output increased more than initially estimated, boosting speculation the European Central Bank will refrain from cutting interest rates tomorrow. The dollar fell from almost a seven-week high before data today that analysts said will show gross-domestic-product growth slowed last quarter and as two Federal Reserve research papers said slack in the economy justified an accommodative stance. The yen slid as Japan’s Topix Index (TPX) of shares rose 0.8 percent, damping demand for the currency as a haven. New Zealand’s currency climbed to a two-week high on jobs gains.
“There’s quite a bit of uncertainties ahead of the ECB meeting,” Brian Daingerfield, a Stamford, Connecticut-based currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s RBS Securities unit, said in a telephone interview. “There’s some concern about maybe the market might have gone a little bit too far with euro weakness ahead of this meeting.” The euro strengthened 0.3 percent to $1.3513 at 5 p.m. New York time after declining to $1.3442 on Nov. 4, the weakest level since Sept. 18. The common currency rose 0.4 percent to 133.31 yen. The dollar strengthened 0.2 percent to 98.66 yen. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major currencies, dropped 0.3 percent to 1,013.48 after rising to 1,017 on Nov. 4, the highest since Sept. 18. Gold sales from Australia’s Perth Mint, which refines most of the bullion from the second-largest producer, rose in October as a drop in prices to a three-month low spurred demand and the mint filled a backlog of orders. Sales of coins and minted bars climbed 13 percent to 77,255 ounces last month from 68,488 ounces in September, according to data from the mint. While demand in October more than doubled from 30,430 ounces in August, sales were 31 percent lower than this year’s peak in April, when gold tumbled into a bear market. Bullion is set to snap 12 years of gains as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value amid
speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will curb stimulus. Gold advanced 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial system to boost the economy. While investors sold bullion at a record pace from exchange-traded products this year, sales of coins by the U.S. Mint have surpassed the total for all of 2012.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383811385091.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-08-2013, 12:07 PM
The euro fell the most in two years versus the dollar after the European Central Bank unexpectedly cut its main refinancing rate to a record-low 0.25 percent to boost growth in the 17- member currency region. The Czech koruna dropped the most on record versus the euro as its central bank approved the first currency sales in more than a decade. The dollar extended gains as a report showed the world’s biggest economy expanded at a faster pace than forecast before todays jobs report. The euro pared losses after a report said the Bundesbank president and at least two other officials opposed the rate cut, according to two central-bank officials. The yen gained on haven demand as stocks dropped. “News after the press conference suggests the Bundesbank wasn’t behind today’s rate cut,” Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, said in a phone interview. “That shows the vote wasn’t unanimous and one more potential rate cut can be pretty much ruled out.” The euro fell 0.7 percent to $1.3424 at 3:18 p.m. New York time after slipping as much as 1.6 percent, the biggest drop since December 2011. It touched $1.3296, the weakest level since Sept. 16. The 17-nation shared currency slid 1.4 percent to 131.47 yen. Japan’s currency added 0.8 percent to 97.88 per dollar after dropping as much as 0.8 percent. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.3 percent to 1,016.51 after touching 1,022.30, highest since Sept. 13. It gained as much as 0.9 percent, the most since Aug. 1. The European Central Bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low in a
bid to prevent slowing inflation from taking hold in a still-fragile euro-area economy. With inflation at the weakest level in four years and less than half the ECB’s target, the Frankfurt-based bank halved its key refinancing rate to 0.25 percent in a shift anticipated by just three of 70 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The ECB’s first rate reduction since May burnishes Draghi’s reputation as a crisis-fighter and aligns his bank with counterparts such as the Federal Reserve in recently seeking to reinforce rather than retract monetary support. It leaves the euro-area’s main rate just a quarter-point from zero, increasing the likelihood of unconventional tools such as a negative deposit rate if prices slow further or the economy stalls.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1383897982981.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-11-2013, 10:20 AM
Last week, the USD could held a two week high against the JPY after jobs data in the US topped the economist forecasts. The JPY lost versus most major currency pairs after Japan reported a record seasonally-adjusted current account deficit in September 2013 and a wider than estimated trade gab. Japan recorded a deficit of 125.2 billion JPY (1.3 billion USD) in Septermber. This is the most since 1985. The trade shortfall was 874.8 billion JPY, wider than the expected 853.9 billion JPY. The USD was little changed and traded around 98.98. In the past two weeks, the USD could increase over 1.7 percent. The EUR traded at 1.3360 against the USD and EUR fell 0.1 percent to 132.24 JPY.
The AUD could not pull back against the USD after touching a 5 week low due to industrial output growth unexpectedly accelerated in China, the South Pacific nations biggest trading partner and domestic home loans increased the most since March. On the other hand, second South Pacific currency could gain versus its 16 major peers after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. Said milksolids volume rose. The AUD/USD was at 0.9384. AUD has fallen over 1.5 percent. Last Friday, it touched 0.9353 the weakest since the beginning of October. The NZD increased 0.3 percent and traded at 0.8278 against the USD.
In Europe, the GBP could increase last week as a report showed that the unemployment rate decreased to 7.6 percent, the lowest since 2009. Furthermore the Bank of England Governor Mark Carneypushed the demand for the GBP as he signaled that interest rates could rise sooner as expected. The GBP traded litte changed around 0.8342 against the EUR. Before it touched 0.8301, the most since the beginning of the year.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384150694561.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-12-2013, 10:40 AM
Yesterday, the EUR could rise against the USD after three days of losses. Last week, the currency pair dropped over 2 cent to the lowest level in this quarter. It climbed 0.3 percent to 1.3407 at 5 p.m. New York time after reaching 1.3296 on Nov. 7. The 17-nation currency added 0.4 percent to 132.94 JPY and the USD gained 0.1 percent to 99.16 JPY.
The Philippines peso tumbled the most in a month versus the USD after the years most powerful typhoon flattened buildings and killed over 10,000 peoples. The peso fell over 1 percent to 43.585 per USD. This is the lowest level since the beginning of September. Also the Philippine Stock exchange Index decreased for a seventh day. It dropped 1.5 percent. The Thai baht and the South Korea´s won weakened 0.7 percent versus the USD. An Asian index, which tracks the regions 10 major currencies excluding the JPY, fell over 0.3 percent to 115.71. Also Brazils currency has fallen over 4.1 percent. The government reported that the gross domestic product dropped more than economists expected. It was the biggest change in the last four years. It remains to be seen if Standard and Poors may lower Brazils BBB credit rating.
The AUD traded near the lowest level in six weeks against the USD. It fell for a third day after Chinese loan growth slowed more than forecast last month. China is the biggest tradinger partner of the South Pacific nation. The AUD was little changed at 0.9361 against the USD. The last three days, the curreny pair weakend 2 percent. Also the second South Pacific currency could rise against the AUD. AUD/NZD traded at 1.1338. Benchmark 10 year bond yields in Australia rose four basis points to 4.26 percent.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384238380851.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-13-2013, 10:42 AM
The EUR could gain for the second consecutive day against the USD. Reports this week may show that the regions factory output dropped and economic growth stopped. This increases the speculation that the European Central Bank will take more measures after the rate cut last week. Today, economists expect that factory production in the 17-nation region could fell 0.3 percent in September. In Augsut, it rose 1 percent. The currency pair traded at 1.3433 and strengthened 0.5 percent.
The USD/JPY decreased 0.1 percent to 99.59 after touching 99.80 yesterday. It was the highest level since the middle of Septemeber. Many analysts expecting a rally of 1 percent for the USD. It may retest its September high at 100.61 if Japans third quarter provisional GDP grows less than estimated. In the second quarter it was at 0.9 percent. Expected is a drop to 0.4 percent. Japan will publish these important data tomorrow.
Due to the fact that many U.S. business activitys improved, it could gain versus most of its 16 major counterparts. The NZD dropped to a seven week low against the USD. Also the second South Pacific currency AUD dropped 0.6 percent versus the USD and traded at 0.9302. It fell for the fourth day.
The GBP fell for a third day versus the USD and the EUR as the National Statistics Office said that annual consumer price inflation slowed to 2.2 percent last month from 2.7 percent in September. The Bank of England publishes new economic forecasts in its quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow. GBP weakened 0.5 percent to 1.5905 USD. Before it touched 1.5855, the lowest since September. It also slid 0.8 percent to 0.8448 versus the EUR.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384324862591.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-14-2013, 10:57 AM
The EUR could reach a one week high against the USD after Federal Reserve chairman nominee Janet Yellen said that the economy and labor market are performing “far short of their potential”. The outlook must strengthen before a reduction in monetary stimulus takes place. The currency pair traded at 1.3486 after earlier touching 1.3498, the weakest since the middle of last week. It remains to be seen if the EUR could break the 1.3500 level. Yesterday, it was a strong support. Also last week, the EUR tried to break this level but failed. Also the AUD and the NZD climbed after Yellen announced their news. The NZD rose to 0.8277 versus the USD.
The GBP could recover yesterday after the Bank of England improved its outlook for unemployment. The Office for National Statistics said that the jobless rate fell to 7.6 percent in the third quarter. This is the lowest level since 2009. The GBP traded at 1.6051 after gaining 1 percent to 1.6057 yesterday. It was at 0.8403 against the EUR, here it could recover 0.6 percent after losing 2 days before.
The JPY weakened against most of its major counterparts as Asian stocks gained. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares climbed 0.8 percent. Furthermore the JPY decreased after government data showed that growth in Japans gross domestic product slowed to an annualized 1.9 percent in the July-September period from 3.8 percent the second quarter. The JPY fell 0.2 percent to 99.45 versus the USD and dropped to 133.94 against the EUR. South Koreas central bank left the benchmark rate unchanged. The WON climbed against the USD and made over 0.5 percent.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384412124471.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-15-2013, 10:35 AM
In the third quarter, the USD dropped versus most major world currencies because of weak U.S. economic data plus the continuation of the Federal Reserve Boards policy of purchasing 85 billion USD in securities each month. Inverstors reduced their USD holdings during this period, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. It fell over 6 percent against the GBP, 3.8 percent versus the EUR and 1 percent against the JPY.
Yesterday, the USD could rose. The JPY fell 0.8 percent to 100.01 against the USD after touching 100.15, the weakest level since the beginning of September. A government report in Japan showed that economic growth slowed. The currency also continued its bearish trend against the EUR and declined 0.6 percent to 134.61. The EUR slid 0.2 percent versus the USD to 1.3461 after declining as much as 0.5 percent.
The AUD headed for a fourth weekly decline against the USD as traders weighed the timing of a reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus and a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. It weakened 0.5 percent this week and traded around 0.9335. The other South Pacific nation currency, the NZD, traded unchanged against the USD at 0.8285. Its heading for a 0.4 percent weekly advance. The yield on Australia 10-year government debt was little changed at 4.2 percent. It ttouched4.3 percent at the beginning of the current month, the highest level since March 2012. Australias yields have risen seven basis points only this week (0.07 percentage point).


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384497186621.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-18-2013, 11:43 AM
Last Friday, the Standard & Poor’s index rose 0.4 percent and the Dow Jones index of shares even climbed 0.5 percent. Beyond that European Union finance ministers agreed on Friday that the euro zone ESM bailout fund will be able to buy stakes in banks that need rescuing if neither investors nor the government are able to provide funds. Before this direct recapitalization becomes reality the European Union must agree on a new law by the end of this year. A condition is that the ESM recapitalization will only happen when the European Central Bank takes over as the euro zone bank supervisor from November 2014. In addition, they agreed last Thursday to allow Spain to exit an aid program for its banking sector in January whithout additional funds. Last year Spain took 41 billion euros of aid to rescue a number of banks from collapse.
Today New York Fed President William C.Dudley is going to speak and economists estimated that he will point out the need for monetary stimulus. In addition it is forecasted that the Fed will delay tapering asset purchases until March 2014, although a report showed eployers added more jobs that estimated in the past month. The USD held biggest decline in four weeks versus most major peers. The EUR/USD appreciated to 1.3485 and the EUR/JPY was at 135.20. The USD/JPY touched 100.28, coming from 100.44 in the past week. The BOJ is goint to start a two-day meeting this Wednesday and it is forecasted that they will bolster stimulus in the first six months of 2014.
A report showed that in New Zealand the services industry advanced at a faster pace last month to 58.2. In September the reading was at 56.4. As a result the AUD declined towards a five-year low versust the NZD and trade at 1.1235. The NZD/USD was at 0.8332 and the AUD/USD strengthened to 0.9368.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384760497951.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-19-2013, 11:02 AM
Yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s index declined 0.4 percent and the Dow Jones index of shares climbed 0.1 percent. Yesterday, a top Bank of Italy official said that the minimum capital requirement the European Central Bank will set in the stress tests, should not go above 8 percent. In the next year as scheduled the ECB will take over supervision from national regulators. Beyond that yesterday ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said that the economic situation in the euro zone has started to improve but is still weaker than it has been estimated by the ECB. A drop in euro zone inflation to just 0.7 percent in the past month prompted the ECB to cut interest rate to a record low.
Speculation came up that the Federal Reserve speakers including Ben S. Bernanke will reiterate economic growth isn’t yet sufficient to reduce stimulus. Last week Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen indicated that she will continue with the central bank’s monetary stimulus until she sees a robust recovery. Furthermore economists estimated that a report tomorrow will show U.S. retail sales were little changed in the past month after a 0.1 percent drop in September. In addition another report might show that consumer prices stagnated in October after increasing 0.2 percent in September. Today, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research might report that its index of German investor and analyst expectations advanced to 54 this month from 52.8, which would bhe the highest since October 2009. As a result the EUR was close to a two-week high versus the USD and traded at 1.3500. The USD/JPY was at 99.87 and the EUR/JPY touched 134.86.
The CAD strengthened to the strongest level in more than a week as the outlook for the nation’s commodity exports improved with China’s pledge to expand economic freedom. In addition a report showed that foreign investment in Canadian securities climbed to the highest level in five months. The USD/CAD declined to 1.0425 and the CAD/JPY was at 95.78.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384844536281.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-20-2013, 11:38 AM
Yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s index declined 0.2 percent and the Dow Jones index of shares tumbled 0.1 percent. Yesterday ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said that there is no risk of deflation visible in the euro zone economy but its recovery is fragile with inflation low and credit subdued. In addition Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said yesterday in an interview that the ECB can act again if necessary to keep inflation in the euro zone in target. A possible measure would be to introduce a negative deposit rate, but he pointed out that he would be very careful in deploying this tool. Beyond that the OECD said yesterday that the ECB must consider buying government and corporate bonds to help the euro zone avoid a Japanese-like deflationary spiral. The ECB is not allowed to buy bonds directly from governments but can find ways to purchase them from banks, like accepting them as security in return for finance.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank’s main interest rate will probably remain near zero for a considerable time after asset purchases end. As a result the USD declined versus nearly all of its most traded counterparts. Janet Yellen, who has been nominated to succeed Bernanke, also said that she will press on with unprecedented stimulus until she sees a robust recovery. Economists estimated that today reports will show retail U.S. retail sales advanced 0.1 percent in the past month following a decline from September. Another report is forecasted to show that consumer prices stagnated in October, after climbing 0.2 percent in September. The EUR/USD touched 1.3579 before it declined to 1.3548. The USD bought 100.08
JPY and the EUR/JPY reached a four year high around 135.91 but fell then back to 135.55.
The CAD tumbled versus all of its most-traded peers as futures of crude oil, its largest export, touched its lowest level in more than five months. In addition a report this week is forecasted to show inflation in Canada fell in October. The USD/CAD gained 0.4 percent to 1.0469.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384933061981.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-21-2013, 11:25 AM
Yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s index declined 0.4 percent and the Dow Jones index of shares also tumbled 0.4 percent. European Central Bank policymaker Jens Weidmann said yesterday in an interview that printing money is not the way out of the euro zone crisis. He pointed out that it will still take years until the causes of the crisis are eliminated. Beyond that the ECB’s economics chief Peter Praet said that there was no risk of deflation visible in the euro area, and that inflation expectations were firmly anchored. Today President Mario Draghi is going to speak and policymakers already said that the ECB is considering a negative deposit rate for commercial lenders who park excess cash at the ECB to minus 0.1 percent from zero. As a result the EUR fulfilled its steepest decline in three weeks. It fell versus most of its 16 major counterparts and touched 1.3430 USD. The EUR bought 134.80 JPY and the USD/JPY traded at 100.37. Economists estimated that data today will show manufacturing and services in the euro area increased to 52 this month from 51.9 in the previous month.
Federal Reserve officials felt they could decide to start scaling back the asset-purchase program at one of its next few meetings if economic conditions warranted this. Furthermore released minutes also showed that officials discussed how to distinguish between asset buying and forward interest rates guidance. Next meeting of the policymakers is scheduled to gather on December 17-18. The market forecasted that data today will show first-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 335,000 after employers had already added more jobs than expected in October.
The AUD was close to a two month low based on speculation that the Federal Reserve will curb stimulus which might decrease demand for higher yielding assets. The AUD/USD tumbled to 0.9308 and the NZD/USD weakened to 0.8242.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/138501867111.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-22-2013, 11:30 AM
Yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s index appreciated 0.8 percent and the Dow Jones index of shares also gained 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones index closed above 16,000 for the first time. Yesterday top policymakers turned to a new monetary policy battlefront, a growing debate over how the Fed should signal the timing of eventual interest rate hikes. Top Fed officials at opposite ends of the policy spectrum still disagree on the optimal future of the asset purchase program.
Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed that they are preparing to reduce the bond-buying program if the economomy continues to gain momentum. U.S. manufacturing activity and output rebounded this month while business activity across the euro zone and at China’s manufacturers decelerated. While growth in Germany, euro zone largest economy, was able to pick up, activity in France declined. So the recovery in the euro are is lopsided, the European economy is struggling to gain momentum from its longest-ever recession. The EUR/USD traded at 1.3470.
Speculation came up that the Australian Reserve Bank will take steps to curb a gain in the AUD, as RBA Governor Glenn Steven said that he will be open-minded regarding currency intervention.Yesterday the AUD declined by the most in three months versus the USD and was at 0.9243. The NZD advanced versus all 16 major peers although Reserve Bank of New Zealand Aassistant Governor said that the NZD is overvalued. The NZD/USD gained 0.4 perent to 0.8240. Yesterday the Bank of Japan decided to maintain unprecendeted stimulus to achieve its 2 percent inflation goal in around two years by doubling base money through asset purchases. The Bank of Japan also retained its assessment the economy was gaining momentum, albeit moderately. The EUR/JPY reached 101.33 and the USD/JPY was at 101.15.
The market estimated that tomorrow data will show consumer-price index in Canada dropped below policy makers’ target. The USD/CAD strengthened to 1.0522.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1385105284711.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-25-2013, 12:38 PM
The euro rose to the highest in more than four years versus the yen after a German report showed Europe’s economic recovery may be gaining momentum, easing speculation the central bank will cut interest rates further. Australia’s dollar fell against all of its 16 most-traded peers amid speculation the nation’s central bank will take steps to curb the currency’s strength. The yen reached a four-month low versus the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he will do his utmost to restrict an increase in long-term yields. Futures traders increased their bets that the yen will decline against the dollar to the most in six years. “It looks like we’re going to see the euro zone return to genuine growth in 2014,” said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “There seems to be a finite magnitude in terms of how far the ECB can go to cut rates. That’s no longer driving investors away from the euro.” The euro gained 0.7 percent to 137.28 yen at 5 p.m. New York time after touching 137.25, the highest level since October 2009. The shared currency rose 0.6 percent to $1.3558 and advanced for a second week. The dollar added 0.1 percent to 101.27 yen after reaching 101.35 yen, the strongest since July 8. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.2 percent to 1,018.56 to pare its weekly gain to 0.2 percent. Futures traders placed the biggest bet on a decline in the yen against the dollar since July 2007, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the yen compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- was 112,216 on Nov. 19, compared with net shorts of 95,107 a week earlier. The Ifo institute’s German business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, increased to 109.3 from 107.4 in October. That was the highest reading since April 2012. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a gain to 107.7. “I’m relatively positive on the euro,” said Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro Group Ltd. in London. “I don’t really have the impression the actual backdrop is really that bad. Underneath, it actually has a decent tone.”
The Bundesbank said this week that the German economy remains on a “solid growth path.” Investor confidence rose to the highest level in four years in November, unemployment remained near a two-decade low in October and factory orders climbed more than economists predicted in September.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1385368597351.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-27-2013, 01:19 PM
The euro strengthened against most major peers amid speculation the European Central Bank won’t add to monetary accommodation efforts that may push the shared currency lower. The yen gained for the first time in four days versus the dollar after minutes of the Bank of Japan’s October meeting showed some officials saw risks to the economy. Europe’s 17-nation shared currency climbed versus the greenback as China’s central-bank governor said it was important to hisnation’s reserve management and an ECB policy maker said inflation should pick up gradually.
Brazil’s real fell against most major counterparts. The ECB is “likely to defer a recommendation for the next couple of meetings, which is helping the euro today,” Charles St-Arnaud, a foreignexchange strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in New York, said in a phone interview. “We’ve gotten discussions showing there’s no real consensus on what the ECB wants to do over the next few meetings.” The euro strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.3572 per dollar at 5 p.m. New York time after rising to $1.3575, the highest level since Nov. 20. The 17-nation currency was little changed at 137.46 yen. Japan’s currency appreciated 0.4 percent to 101.28 per dollar after gaining 0.5 percent, the most since Nov. 13. Australia’s dollar fell 0.8 percent to 92.44 yen after decreasing 1 percent to 92.25, the weakest since Oct. 10. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, fell 0.2 percent to 1,018.83 after gaining 0.1 percent.
Inflation (ECCPEST) in Europe stayed close to a four-year low in November with a reading of 0.8 percent, according to the median prediction of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the report on Nov. 29. BOJ board member Sayuri Shirai proposed adding “attention should be paid to the downside risks” to the bank’s outlook report as “there was a high degree of uncertainty regarding developments in overseas economies and households’ employment and incomesituation,” the BOJ minutes showed. “The yen has weakened significantly over the past couple weeks, so it’s experiencing a bit of a relief rally,” Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist at Gain Capital Group in New York, said in a phone interview. “There are officials within the BOJ that may be a little more cautious about the prospects of growth.



http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1385543662941.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-28-2013, 11:48 AM
The dollar rose to a six-month high against the yen as an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims and a rise in leading economic indicators added to speculation the Federal Reserve may start reducing stimulus next month. The euro strengthened to a four-year high against the yen as German lawmakers reached a coalition accord on wages and spending increases without raising taxes, spurring demand for the region’s assets. The Thai baht fell after the central bank cut interest rates, while the Canadian dollar dropped as crude oil slipped for a fourth day. “The dollar is benefiting from a very small risk of taper in December,” Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at the currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., said in a phone interview. “I’m still a little skeptical about December tapering. Granted the FOMC meeting minutes was a bit more hawkish than expected, but if you just focus on what Bernanke and Yellen said, the most likely scenario is taper in the first quarter.” The dollar gained 0.9 percent to 102.16 yen at 5 p.m. in New York and touched 102.19, the strongest level since May 29. It slipped 0.1 percent to $1.3579 against the common currency, having dropped as much as 0.3 percent earlier. The euro advanced 0.9 percent to 138.73 yen after touching 138.79, the highest since June 2009. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.3
percent to 1,021.55. The pound gained versus all its 16 major counterparts as the Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product increased 0.8 percent in the three months through September, matching an initial estimate. “The report showed the strengthening of the U.K. economy is being driven by domestic factors,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “It’s consistent with the picture that we already knew, that the U.K. economy is strengthening. The break to the upside for pound versus the dollar was a reflection of it moving above the recent highs and that’s encouraged a squeeze higher.” The U.K. currency advanced 0.4 percent to $1.6287 after climbing to $1.6331, the highest level since Jan. 2. Merkel clinched the coalition agreement with the Social Democratic Party that calls for a national minimum wage and pledges to increase spending on pensions and infrastructure. The accord reached shortly before 5 a.m. in Berlin after 17 hours of negotiations sets Merkel on track for a third term leading the nation until 2017. The agreement must still be passed by the entire SPD, which plans a referendum among its about 470,000 members.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1385624776181.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
11-29-2013, 11:54 AM
The euro rose to a four-year high against the yen as annual inflation in Germany accelerated in November more than economists forecast, damping bets the European Central Bank will further loosen monetary policy. The shared currency climbed for a third day against the dollar as separate reports showed consumer-price growth in the German states of Saxony and North Rhine- Westphalia increased for the first time in five months. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate this month after inflation in the currency bloc slowed to a four-year low in October. The pound rose for a third day versus the dollar as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank will end incentives for mortgage lending. “The more resilient German inflation is, the higher the hurdle is for more easing from the ECB,” said Eimear Daly, a currency-market analyst at Monex Europe Ltd. in London. “The inflation number from Saxony significantly boosted the euro,” she said, referring to the first regional report to be released. The euro climbed 0.3 percent to 139.08 yen at 2:52 p.m. in Toronto after advancing to 139.18, the highest since June 2009. The shared currency added 0.2 percent to $1.3603. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 102.24 yen after touching 102.37, the strongest level since May 29. U.S. financial markets are shut today for a public holiday. The annual inflation rate in Germany, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, rose to 1.6 percent this month from 1.2 percent in October. The median forecast of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was for a reading of 1.3 percent. “The CPI numbers were a little bit firmer than had been forecast for Germany,” said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Toronto- Dominion Bank, by phone from Toronto. The data provided investors with “relief that we didn’t get weaker numbers, more disinflation, and more speculation of ECB easing that would have resulted from that.” Analysts in a separate Bloomberg survey estimate European Union statistics office data tomorrow will show consumer prices in the euro region rose 0.8 percent in November from a year ago, after increasing 0.7 percent the prior month. The pound rose as Carney said allowances under the central bank’s Funding for Lending Scheme will only apply to business lending from 2014 and will no longer be available for home loans. “Sterling reacted positively to what Carney said because the perception is that the Bank of England is using macro-prudential measures to head off risk to market stability that could come from the housing market,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. “Some see that as hawkish.”


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1385711501331.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-02-2013, 10:53 AM
Analysts’ expectations were exceeded by the Chinese manufacturing growth in November, which could be a sign for a accelerating recovery of the Chinese business as well as the government efforts to limit the increase of credits. Yesterday, the Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing published the Purchasing Managers’ Index, which climbed to 51.4 amid estimates of 50.8. All ratings above 50 are indicators for expansion. Nevertheless, the Chinese economy is still facing troubles through factory overcapacity and growing corporate debts despite rallying industrial investments.
Influenced by the positive momentum of the second largest economy in the world, the AUD succeeded to rebound from a three month low. Furthermore, the NZD benefited from export prices relative to import prices, which climbed to 7.5 percent, the highest within the last 40 years and in succession the NZD enforced against the AUD. But also the AUD advanced after the decline of building approvals was weaker than forecasted by the majority of economists. Tomorrow, the monthly summit of the Nation’s Reserve Bank is scheduled and might result in unchanged interest rate at 2.5 percent. As a result, the AUD increased 0.6 percent to 0.9159 USD following a decrease to 0.9056 on Friday, the weakest since the 4th of September. The AUD/JPY fetched 0.5 percent and traded at 93.75 JPY, while the NZD added 0.9 percent to 83.94 JPY. It advanced also against the USD and was at 0.8197 USD. The AUD lost 0.4 percent against the NZD and slid to 1.1172.


http://upload7.ir/images/48003466559795272759.gif (http://upload7.ir/viewer.php?file=48003466559795272759.gif)

PCMNewsdesk
12-03-2013, 11:02 AM
Yesterday, the Asian stocks outside Japan decreased for the first time in more than one week and also the region’s currency showed a slump after U.S. manufacturing data exceeded economists’ expectations and fuelded speculations the Federal Reserve might reduce the current monetary easing sooner than anticipated. Last month, the manufacturing increased its pace to the highest within two years and was rated as a sign for a pickup in business spending, which support economy growth at the beginning of 2014. Also the ISM manufacturing index succeeded to appreciate to 57.3 in November negating an estimated fall to 55.1 by Bloomberg median forecasts. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures kept their yesterday’s level and has added 26 percent since the 31st of December 2012, the best yearly boost since 2003, but the Hang Seng Index lost 0.7 percent from its 32-months high. In addition, the demand for commodities rose and Oil rallied 0.3 percent. Besides oil, gold was able to advance 0.1 percent to 1220.84 USD an ounce following a 2.7 percent slide the day before.
The USD benefited from the heated guesses whether a strengthening economy will force the Federal Reserve to dim their monthly bond purchasing program. As a result, the USD/JPY showed a rise to the best level in the last six month versus the JPY. Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar Index published by Bloomberg rallied to a eight weeks high, while tomorrow’s employment data report might confirm a boost in jobs in November, the most since June. Therefore, the USD won 0.1 percent and traded at 103.08 JPY by briefly reaching 103.16, the best since the 23rd of May. Meanwhile, the EUR declined to 1.3533 USD after losing 0.4 percent and the 17 nation’s currency gained to 139.53 JPY from 139.40 yesterday. Besides the JPY, also the AUD weakened and was 0.1 percent lower at 1.1110 NZD after having shrank to 1.1105 NZD yesterday, the worst since 2008.
According to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the USD was able to add 4 percent since the beginning of the year, while the JPY showed the weakest performance and tumbled 14 percent. But the biggest winner was the EUR, which soared 7 percent in the same period.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1386054054181.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-04-2013, 11:14 AM
The drop of the AUD continued and influenced the Asian stocks to weaken the third day in a row as the nation’s economy showed a slower growth than estimated by the majority of Bloomberg economists. In the last three months, the Australian business added only 0.6 percent compared to the second quarter of 2013 and revised the annual rate down to 2.3 percent from an expected 2.6 percent. This was caused due to reversing non-dwelling construction and machinery investment.
Furthermore, the central bank Governor Stevens announced yesterday at then end of the two-day summit that the lending rate remains unchanged and he pointed out that a further debasing of the AUD is favorable for an accelaring pace of econiomic expansion. As a result, the AUD tumbled 0.8 percent to 0.9065 USD, while also the NZD lost 0.6 percent versus the U.S. counterpart. Despite this the NZD advanced against the AUD to 1.1042 NZD, the highest since October 2008. But in contrast, the demand for oil reached a five-week peak and boosted Crude up to 97.25 USD per barrel, a 2.4 percent rise due to TransCanada Corp. statement to start an operating part of its Keystone XL pipeline at the beginning of 2014 combined with industrial reports, which confirmed that the U.S. crude deliveries decreased.
Tomorrow the monthly gatherings of the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England are scheduled and speculations grew that the officials will kept the key benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25 percent. Market analysts explained that “The ECB isn’t under pressure to ease policy this week as concerns about disinflation have lessened since November’s meeting.” Before tomorrow’s meeting, the GBP gained momentum and has climbed to the best since 2011 as a survey verified that construction strengthened the most within the past six years. Last week, a gauge proved that the euro-zone prices appreciated at a rate of 0.9 percent in November following a 0.7 percent increase the previous month and establishing the 10th month in a row with an inflation below the ECB’s target rate of 2 percent.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1386141087191.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-05-2013, 11:38 AM
In advance to this weeks monetary decisions by the leading economis of the world as well as the investors influence on the potential growth of the most important business indicators has increased the global volatility of currencies to the strongest level in the past 2 months. Today, the Bank of England as well as the European Central Bank will announce their rate decisions of their monthly meeting. Therefore the JPMorgan’s Global FX Volatility Index appreciated to best level since the 9th of October and closed at 8.8 percent.
Today a median forecast by Bloomberg News might confirm that the U.S. economy succeeded to climb up to an annualized 3.1 percent grothw in the third quarter compared to 2.8 percent in the initial reading for the previous one and a finalist 2.5 percent for the second quarter. We also expect the latest data from the labor market in the afternoon, which probably shows that companies added 185,000 jobs in November after having increased the number of employees by 204,000 in October, referring to a separate gauge. Yesterday, the ADP Resaech Insitute released a poll that employers rallied their hiring to 215,000 in the prevous month. Besides this, the Federal Reserve explained in their yesterday’s Beige Book statement, the recovery of the U.S. business is “modest to moderate” in the fields manufacturing, technology and housing in the period from early October to November. This report contained estimates of 12 most important central banks of the United States two weeks before the next Federal Reserve summit. Speculators and market strategists are weighing the announcements of the Open Market Committee to reduce the monthly stimulus in the next months if the economy shows a stable increase in view of the advancing business numbers of the recent weeks. As a result, the USD/JPY climbed to 102.36 after a 0.6 percent drop the past two days. But the EUR enforced against the USD and rose to 1.3587 after a
brief loss to 1.3526 yesterday.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1386229009251.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-06-2013, 11:26 AM
Today, a range of important market data will be released from the U.S. and the Canadian economy and will have the main influence of this day’s market movements.
In addition, the analysts of the world’s largest pension fund of the Japanese government with an asset volume of 124 trillion JPY (1.22 trillion USD) might make a radical re-allocation of their current bond structure by cutting domestic bonds to 52 percent and rising the share of local stocks up to 18 percent. This is a reaction to the continuing increasing debting of the Japanese state as well as the growing belief that the central bank’s monthly bond purchasing program of 7 trillionJPY will probably fail to rally the inflation above the 2 percent target.
Yesterday, the CAD advanced for the first time in this week by leaving its more than 36-months low as speculations grew that today releasing labor market numbers might be better than expected and could be seen as a sign of an accelerating growth of the nation’s economy as intentioned by the Canadian Central Bank. Referring to a median survey by Bloomberg News, employers might append 12,000 jobs in November compared to 13,200 the previous month. By reaching an average mark-up of 12,630 new jobs per month in 2014. Besides this, the building approvals for October surpassed the estimates of the majority of economist’ and strengthened the CAD, which enforced against most of its currency counterparts. Therefore the Canadian Dollar climbed 0.3 percent to 1.0654 versus the USD after having dropped to 1.0707 CAD the day before, the lowest since May 2010. The Canadian business benefited also from the rising demand for commodities; especially, the futures of crude oil, the nation’s most important export, continued its five day rally and added 0.1 percent to 97.31 USD per barrel following a brief boost to 97.99 USD, the best since the 29th of October.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcmnews.gif (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-10-2013, 11:51 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares remained unchanged and the Standard & Poor’s Index climbed 0.2 percent. Yesterday also a proposal prepared for euro zone finance ministers revealed that the euro zone’s bailout fund should be allowed to lend for helping finance the closure of banks. They are seeking to reach a deal in this year but this proposal seems to hit resistance by Germany which does not want the ESM bailout fund to lend for any banks.
Yesterday Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President said in a speech the U.S. should tapermonetary stimulus at the earliest opportunity after they have done more than enough bond byuing. Therefore economists presume that the Fed might start reducing their bond buying at the December 17-18 meeting. In addition economists estimated that today data will show a rebound in French industrial production, which is the second biggest economy in Europe. French industrial production might increase 0.1 percent in October. Today European Central Bank President is scheduled to speak at a conference in Rome, just a day after ECB executive Boarb member Mersch said liquidity injections for banks that require them to lend the cash on risks interfering in the functioning of markets. The EUR almost reached a six week high versus the USD and traded at 1.3738. The EUR appreaciated to a five year high against the JPY and was at 141.84. The USD bought 103.27 JPY.
The market estimated that Australia’s economy will require further stimulus which lead to a decline to a five year low versus the NZD. Beyond that economists forecasted that contruction in New Zealand will surge over the nexst few years. The AUD/USD depreciated 0.2 percent to 90.85 and the AUD/NZD traded at 1.0980. New Zealand’s central bank is going to hold a policy meeting on December 12.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1386661877891.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-11-2013, 11:47 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares declined 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index weakened also 0.3 percent. Economists estimated that reports will show increases in German consumer prices and regional industrial production which will be released tomorrow. Consumer prices might gained in Germany 0.2 percent in the past month from the previous month. Germany is the biggest economy in the Euro-area. Another survey showed that industrial output in Italy, the third biggest economy in Europe, beat economists’ forecasts. Tomorrow another report might show that industrial production in the euro area climbed 0.3 percent in October from the prior month. As a result, the EUR held a six-day advance versus the USD, which is the longest winning streak in almost a year. The EUR/USD traded at 1.3762 and the EUR/JPY was at 141.65. TheUSD bought 102.85 JPY. Today, the European Central Bank Vice President Constancio is going to speak in Frankfurt. Last month he said that policy makers are not really near a decision on a negative deposit rate. The European Union's executive has ruled out hasty curbs on "shadow banking", or simplistic trading restrictions on mainstream lenders, in case it ends up crimping finance for the economy.
The market forecasted that tomorrow a report will show unemployment rate in Australia increased to match the highest level since 2009. It probably climbed to 5.8 percent in the past month while employers added 10,000 jobs. Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to meet and economists predicted that they will keep the rate unchanged at 3.5 percent. But a 100 basis points of interest rates increases over a year is also expected. The AUD halzed a four day gain versus the USD and traded at 0.9147. The AUD/JPY touched 94.06 and the NZD bought 0.8304 USD.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1386747950221.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

ALex
12-12-2013, 01:27 AM
Wall Street has biggest decline in over a month


The US stocks market extended declines on Wednesday as investors are speculating over the provisional budget deal in Washington as fuel for the Fed's cuts in stimulus program.

The Dow Jones collapsed 129.60 points or 0.81% to end the day at 15,843.53. The S&P declined for second day and after losing 20.40 points or 1.13% to finish at 1,782.22. The Nasdaq Composite eased 56.68 pts or 1.40% to 4,003.81.

PCMNewsdesk
12-12-2013, 11:41 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares declined 0.8 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index weakened also 1.1 percent. ECB executive board member Asmussen said yesterday that the planned rules for winding down failing banks in the euro zone seem are complex and could slow down the process. He was quoted that it has to be ensured that a bank can be closed in an orderly manner over a weekend. Today, the ECB President Mario Draghi is going to speak in the European Union parliament. On Tuesday, he said that it is crucial for other actors to complement the central bank’s monetary policy actions by carrying out reform at the regional and national level to enable a sustainable recovery. Beyond that economists are expecting data today that may show a rebound in euro-area industrial production. It probably increased 0.3 percent in October from the prior month, when it decreased 0.5 percent. In addition, the market forecasted that today another report will show a rose in U.S. jobless claims. As a result, the EUR was able to held a seven-day advance versus the USD which is its longest rally since April 2011. The EUR/USD traded at 1.3777 and the EUR/JPY was at 141.40. The USD bought 102.64 JPY.
Yesterday, Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale said that there has been a sharp and unexpected drop in inflation since the summer. He pointed out that cooling inflation means it’s less likely that the central bank’s forward guidance policy will be voided.The GBP/USd tumbled 0.5 percent to 1.6361 and the EUR/GBP was at 0.8423.
Data showed today that the number of eomployed people in Australia rose by 21,000, although the market had only estimated an advance of 10,000. Australia’s jobless rate climbed to 5.8 percent. The AUD/USD increased before it tumbled again to 0.9025. New Zealand’s Central bank signaled it will start raising interest rates in the first half of 2014. The NZD/USD was at 0.8271.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1386833844711.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

GoldTrader
12-13-2013, 02:36 AM
Wall Street extends decline for third day
The US stocks markets continue with its cold feet as investors are speculating where and how the fed will start its QE tapering. The Dow posted second straight day of 3-digit decline to, besides the S&P, touched 1-month lows in the session.

The DJIA declined 104.10 points or 0.66% to close the day at 15,739.43: The S&P 500 eased 6.72 pts or 0.38% to finish the session at 1,775.50; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.41 pts or 0.14% to 3,998.40.

GoldTrader
12-13-2013, 02:39 AM
US equities close lower
Another down day for equities; Dow ends down 0.66%, S&P -0.39% and Nasdaq -0.14%.
Asian equities are set to open mixed, Nikkei futures up 0.59%, Hang Seng down 0.53%, Kospi -0.58 and the local ASX/200 -0.3%

PCMNewsdesk
12-13-2013, 11:56 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares declined 0.7 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also weakened 0.4 percent. Yesterday data showed that U.S. retail sales climbed 0.7 percent in the past month, economists predicted a rose of only 0.6 percent. This suggested that the U.S. recovery is on a stable footing but analysts said that this report does not alter expectations as when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its bond buying program. In addition jobless claims in the worlds largest economy increased 68,000 to 368,000 last week, which is the biggest weekly rose since November 2012. The market had forecasted an increase to 320,000. The rise in jobless claims was a result of seasonal factors given last week’s big drop due to Thanksgiving holiday. As a result the USD touched the highest level more than six months versus the JPY, as traders bet on diverging monetary policy between the U.S. and Japanese central banks. The EUR touched a five-year high versus the JPY before European Central Bank Vice President Constancio and executive board members are going to speak today. Yesterday data showed that industrial production in the euro zone fell 1.1 percent, which is the biggest monthly decrease since September 2012, indicating weakness in the bloc’s recovery. The USD/JPY strengthened 0.2 percent to 103.55 and the EUR/USD traded at 1.3750. The EUR bought 142.35 JPY.
Canada’s Central Bank Governor Stephen Poloz warned of deflation after the rise of U.S. retail sales which lifted bets the Federal Reserve will start to reduce economic stimulus.The CAD declined versus most major peers and fell 0.5 percent versus the USD to 1.0640.
Australia’s currency was on track for its longest stretch of weekly losses since 1985, as the central bank governor Stevens signaled a weaker AUD is preferable over lower interest rates to help spur Australia’s economy. The AUD/USD traded at 0.8933 and the AUD/JPY was at 92.55.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1386921182661.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-16-2013, 11:14 AM
Last week, the AUD continued its downtrend against the USD after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens marked out 85 U.S. cents as a level he would prefer for the own currency. He said in an interview with the Australian Financial Review that its probably more preferable to support the economy via a weaker currency than with further rate cuts. An exchange rate of 85 U.S. cents is closer to the mark than 95 cents. The second South Pacific Nation currency, the NZD, could gain versus the AUD as a gauge of consumer confidence in the smaller nation increased to the highest level since 2009. Consumer confidence in New Zealand rose to 120.1 in the forth quarter, according by Westpac Banking Corp and McDermott Miller Ltd. A reading above 100 indicates that there are more optimists than pessimists. Furthermore New Zealands two year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive a floating rate, slid 5 basis points to 3.77 percent. The Reserve Bank left rates unchanged at 2.5 percent on December 12. The AUD slipped 0.4 percent to 0.8931 against the USD after dropping 1.5 percent last week. The USD could win eight weeks in a row versus the AUD. The NZD rose 0.5 percent and traded around 1.0816 against the AUD after reaching 1.0806, the highest level since the end of 2008 for the NZD. It also strengthened to 0.8255 versus the USD. The AUD has dropped 12 percent this year, the highest decline under the major currencies after the JPY. The JPY has lost more than 12 percent.
Japan`s Topix index fell, poised for a fourth day of losses, as investors awaited a two day Federal Reserve policy meeting starting tomorrow and the JPY advanced for a second day against the USD.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387177915691.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-17-2013, 11:20 AM
Yesterday, the USD was only 0.8 percent from a five-year high against the JPY as the Federal Reserve begins a two day meeting today and before data forecast to show that inflation picked up in November. The currency pair traded little changed around 103.05 after touching 103.92 on December 13, the strongest level since October 2008. On the other hand, the USD dropped against most of its 16 most traded counterparts as futures traders bet the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at almost zero through next year even amid speculation it would cut bondbuying this week. The EUR increased against the USD and was at 1.3759 after a survey of purchasing managers showed manufacturing and services output in the region expanded at a faster pace this month than economists forecast. The EUR traded at 141.79 against the JPY.
Today, Germany will publish some important economic data. Maybe it could be a support for the EUR. Economists expect that consumer confidence rose to the highest level in more than four years. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say its index of investors and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 55 in December from 54.6 the previous month. If confirmed, it would be the highest reading since October 2009. It remains to be seen. In our daily calendar section at the end of the report or on our home page you can find out the exact time. The EUR was the best performing major pair in 2013. It rose 8.6 percent. The USD only rose 3.6 percent. The worst performer was the JPY. JPY lost 14 percent.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387264737971.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-18-2013, 10:55 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones index of shares dropped 0.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index weakened 0.3 percent. The USD held a three day decline versus the JPY as investors weighed the probability that the Federal Reserve will taper bond purchases against the chance policy makers may strengthen guidance on interest rates. The USD has weakened against nine of 16 major peers this week. Future traders betting the Fed will keep its benchmark rate at almost zero at least until the end of 2014. The GBP could not gain versus the USD. At the moment, it is trading at 1.6280. It has continued its downtrend from last week and reached a three week low. Last week, the GBP lost over 2 cent. USD/JPY traded at 102.90. On December 13, it touched 103.92, the strongest level since October 2008.
The AUD gained versus all its major peers amid speculation the Reserve Bank may not cut interest rates further after Governor Glenn Stevens said there are signs that loose policy is supporting spending. It rose from a four month low against the USD. The currency pair added 0.3 percent and traded at 0.8924. Yesterday, it touched 0.8882, the lowest level since the beginning of October. The AUD is the currency with the biggest loss in 2013 after the JPY.
The JPY fell against the EUR after a national report showed the biggest trade gap. Japan`s report showed a trade deficit in November of 1.35 trillion JPY (13.1 billion USD). Economists expected a trade gap of 1.2 trillion JPY. Imports climbed 21.1 percent from a year earlier while exports rose 18.4 percent, the finance ministry said. The JPY dropped 0.2 percent versus the EUR and traded at 141.68.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387349645691.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-19-2013, 10:57 AM
Yesterday, the USD touched a five year high against the JPY after the Federal Reserve decided to reduce their bond buying program. The Federal Open Market Committee announced a plan to cut monthly bond purchases to 75 billion USD from 85 billion USD. This could be a sign that the economy is improving. U.S. data have shown that housing starts reached a five year high too. The unemployment rate declined to 7 percent in November from the 2009 high of 10 percent. The Federal Reserve reinforced its assurance that it’s a long way from raising borrowing costs.
Benchmark will stay low. If the unemployment rate declines below 6.5 percent and inflatio below 2 percent, there will be a chance to raise borrowing costs. The USD traded at 104.09 against the JPY after reching 104,37, the strongest level since October 2008. Also the EUR dropped versus the USD and has left its upward trend channel started in November. The currency pair is trading around 1.3660. In our daily technical analysis, you are able to see the chart formation. The JPY rebounded from a five year low against the EUR after a technical indicator signaled declines in the Asian nation`s currency were too rapid. The Bank of Japan policy makers start a two day meeting today. The JPY rallied 0.3 percent to 142.33 per EUR. It touched 142.90 yesterday, the weakest level since October 2008.
The most indices around the world gained due to the fact that there are signs that the US economy is improving. The German Dax, tracking the 30 biggest companys, increased over 100 points. The Dow Jones could climb over 300 points. It has broken the 16,000 level and traded at 16142.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387436184371.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

ALex
12-20-2013, 02:30 AM
Wall Street closed mixed on consolidation post-Fed day

Overall, the US stocks market closed with small losses as investors took a break after yesterday post-fed rally.

The Dow advanced on the day and closed at a new record high but the S&P and the Nasdaq posted declines.

The Dow Jones advanced 11.11 points or 0.07% to close the day at 16,179.08; the S&P 500 declined 1.05 pts or 0.06% to 1,809.60; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 11.93 pts or 0.29% to end the session at 4,058.14.

David-Trader
12-20-2013, 04:11 AM
TODAYS DATA - 20.12.2013


GBP - Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q3)



Dec 20
09:30 GMT
0.8%
Consensus
0.7%
Previous


DATA IMPACT - High

The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/) is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity.

Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).


USD - Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)




Dec 20
13:30 GMT
3.6%
Consensus
2.5%
Previous



DATA IMPACT - High


The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov/) shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time.

GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing.

Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

PCMNewsdesk
12-20-2013, 11:26 AM
The USD was poised for an eighth straight week of gains versus the JPY and its first five day advance in more than a month against the EUR as sigs of strength in the U.S. economy boosted demand for assets there. The EUR dropped a third day to its lowest level since the beginning of December. Traders speculated that the European Central Bank will need to loosen monetary conditions to support the region`s fragile recovery. The USD was little changed against the JPY and rose 0.2 percent to 104.30. This week, it touched its strongest level since 2008 at 104.43.
EUR rebounded 0.1 percent versus the USD. It reached 1.3632. the highest level since December 6. The JPY was at 142.29 per EUR from 142.40 yesterday. This week, EUR lost over 50 pips versus the JPY. The USD has climbed 1.1 percent against the JPY and 0.7 percent versus the EUR during the last five days.Yesterday the Dow Jones index of shares climbed 0.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index dropped 0.1 percent.
Today, a report forecasted to show that U.S gross domestic rose at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the strongest level since the first quarter of 2010. Furthermore economists expect an increase in personal income and spending next Monday.
Weak confidence in Europe, slowing growth and inflation that’s remained below the ECB`s 2 percent goal for most of this year is prompting speculation the central bank will need to do more to stimulate the region`s economy. ECB President Mario Draghi said on December 16 there are risks from long periods of low inflation and policay makers have tools to address this, including several other instruments in the liquidity front.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387524188251.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

David-Trader
12-20-2013, 09:33 PM
The Result GBP-Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)(Q3) is,




0.8%
Actual
0.8%
Consensus
0.7%
Previous






The Result USD-Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3) is,




4.1%
Actual
3.6%
Consensus
2.5%
Previous

PCMNewsdesk
12-23-2013, 11:10 AM
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced the long awaited first steps to reduce the monthly bond purchasing program by 10 billion USD to 75 billion USD. Furthermore, the central bank speeker emphasized once more that a continuation of the retreat will be applied according to jobless and inflation data. In this context, the PCE price index, which is a core measurement for the U.S. inflation, probably climbed 1.2 percent in November from a year earlier and followed a 1.1 percent surplus in October, referring to a survey by Bloomberg News before today’s report.
But the reading in October was the weakest since March 2011. Moreover, the majority of Bloomberg economists forecast that the Commerce Department might announce this afternoon, a rise of consumer spending by 0.5 percent in November after adding 0.3 percent in October. The U.S. consumer spending is one of the most important monthly indicators of the nation’s business and represent about 70 percent of the economy. In succession, the USD declined against its most traded counterparts. But a gauge confirmed that the U.S. economy grew much faster than expected in the third quarter, which boosted the demand for the nation’s stocks.
The winners of this decision were the South Pacific currencies and especially, the AUD/USD performed its best advance in more than four weeks and was able to distance itself from its threeyear low by increasing about a cent. Besides the AUD, also the JPY benefited and nudged the U.S. currency from its five year high. As a result, the USD/JPY lost to 104.05 from 104.10 on Friday, after having touched 104.64, the best since October 2008. In contrast, the JPY dropped against the EUR to 142.29 compared to last week’s close at 142.32. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD remained nearly unchanged and was at 1.3675. Estimates predict an annual rise of 3.5 percent of the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index, which showed the performance of the USD against its 10 most traded peers. Similar to the EUR/USD, the Dollar Index kept its level nearly unchanged at 1021.31, after a 0.5 percent gain in the previous week.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/138778254791.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-24-2013, 11:42 AM
Yesterday, the People’s Bank of China pumped 4.8 billion USD into the market to increase the cash rate in the domestic financial system after the money rate has dropped the most since 2007.
The last liquidity injection was placed on the 3rd of December. These are measures to prevent China’s banking system from collapsing. In succession, the pressure on the central bank increased, while their potential room for additial fiscal measures is more limited than before as the spikes in rate have become more dependant on the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve regarding the stepwise retreat in their monthly stimulus program. Nevertheless, the majority of Asian stocks advanced and also the Nikkei 225 Stock Index boosted up to 16,000 for the first time in more than five years. This morning, the Bank of Japan published their monthly economic report and influenced by the actions of the Chinese People’s Bank the demand for the JPY declined.
Also the rising divergence between the BOJ, which still favored a loose monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, which is slowly tightening their easing measures, might dim the attractiveness of the Japanese currency as a so-called haven currency. As a result, the USD climbed to a five-year peak versus the JPY by adding 0.3 percent to 104.37 yesterday, after having touched 104.67 on Friday, the strongest since October 2008. In addition, the 17 nation’s currency lost towards its
U.S. counterpart, too, and was at 1.3684, a 0.1 percent drop compared to the previous day.
Besides the EUR and the JPY, also the CAD has fallen into step of yesterday’s list of losing currency peers of the USD. The CAD depreciated 0.3 percent and traded at 1.0633. Furthermore, the AUD continued its declining trend for the first time in four days and the AUD/USD fell 0.3 percent to 0.8909.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387870847031.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-26-2013, 10:13 AM
Benefitting from a weakening JPY and an extrapolation of the Chinese business growth might exceed the economists’ estimates of 7.5 percent, the Asian shares climbed for more than a week. The Japanese currency lost versus most of its most important counterparts and dropped to fiveyear lows against the USD and the EUR due to the Minutes of the Bank of Japan’s last summit. There Governor Kuroda backed up the former decisions to use qualitative and quantitative easing measures to debase the nation’s currency and to pump up the inflation to the target at 2 percent.
So far, the central bank is purchasing bonds in the value of 67 billion USD each month. As a result, the EUR increased to 143.37 JPY and the USD rallied to 104.84 JPY, the best levels since October 2008, while also the yield for assets with a maturity of 10 years rose 1.5 basis points to 0.71 percent, the highest since the 18th of September.
In contrast to the BOJ, the Federal Reserve has started its retreat from the monthly easing spending of 85 billion USD. Furthermore, today relasing report of the labor market will probably show that the initial jobless claims slid to 345,000 in the previous week and the monthly unemployment rate is set to remain at 7 percent, the weakest since 2008, according to Bloomberg News. On Tuesday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached a record as the data of the durable goods orderds and the new home sales surpassed all predictions. Since the beginning of this year, the index has fetched 29 percent and is now heading towards its greatest annual gain since 1997. The EUR/USD remained nearly unchanged at 1.3680.
Besides the JPY, also the AUD and the NZD showed a worse performance against its most traded peers. In succession, the USD advanced 0.4 percent towards the AUD and was at 0.8889. The NZD/USD shrank only 0.2 percent and traded at 0.9186.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1388038363981.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-27-2013, 01:21 PM
Referring to our yesterday’s report, the statement of the BOJ to adhere to their loose fiscal policy while maintaining a monthly asset purchasing program helped to keep the downward pressure on the nation’s currency, which dropped to weakest since October 2008. Moreover, tonight released data of the nation’s industrial production disappointed the economists and remained behind the forecasts as the factory output only grew 0.1 percent in October, while the majority of economists and gauges predicted an expansion of 0.4 percent. The JPY might establish a nine-week fall, the longest period of weekly declines in a row since February. This was caused through the positive labor market data of the U.S. economy, which exceeded all economists’ expectations.
Besides the USD, also the EUR appreciated to a new five-year record against the JPY as Asian stocks continued its daily rally since more than one week and the attractiveness of the JPY as socalled haven currency is slowly fading. Furthermore, new speclations regarding an accumulation of the current monthly easing budget until the second half of 2014 are additionally dampen the JPY. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY succeeded to close only little changed at 104.82 from yesterday, after having briefly touched 105.03. This was the first break through the hurdle around 105 within five years. Meanwhile, the EUR/JPY advanced 0.3 percent to 143.95 by touching 144.06. According to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the JPY has slid 16 percent since January, the worst performer among the 10 tracked currencies. In contrast, the USD has strengthened 3.9 percent and the EUR showed the best performance with a 8.6 percent rally in the same period.
Suffering from the risisng demand for Asian stocks as well as climbing commodities prices, the AUD continued its losing streak and is heading towards the 10th weekly drop, the longest period of decreases in more than 30 years. Also the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes reflected the depreciating AUD, which was the 2nd weakest listing and dropped 13 percent since the beginning of the year. Therefore the AUD diluted 0.1 percent to 0.8887 USD.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1388135979761.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-30-2013, 11:17 AM
On Friday, the Dow Jones Index of shares and the Standard & Poors Index closed both unchanged. But this year the Dow Jones Index climbed 26 percent. Beyond that on Friday the Itnernational Monetary Fund signed off on Cyprus’s progress in meeting the conditions of its bailout program and giving the country another 114 million USD. To get the bailout funds, the government promised to cut spending and privatize the state telecoms, electricity and ports authorities. IMF Director Christine Lagarde said that Cyprus has done a good job but she called on Cyprus to speed up the privatization process.
Optimism begins to spread a sustained U.S. recovery will allow the Federal Reserve to keep reducing stimulus in 2014. As a result the USD touched a five-year high against the JPY and headed for an annual gain versus major peers. The USD increased 0.1 percent to 105.29 JPY, which is the strongest since October 2008. The EUR bough 1.3749 USD and the EUR/JPY traded at 144.76. The german journal “Der Spiegel” cited Draghi who said that at the moment they do not see immediate need to act on the main refinancing rate so further rate cuts are less likely. Draghi also said that the crisis is not over, but there are many encouraging signs. Furthermore on Friday Jens Weidmann, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, told a german newspaper that the current calm on financial markets may be deceiving.
Bank of Canada’s Governor Stephen Poloz signaled that the benchmark interest rate will remain ta 1 percent until inflation rate picks up. Canada’s currency declined for a second week on bets the New Year will see monetary policy diverge further between the US and Canada’s monetary stimulus. The USD/CAD climbed 0.7 percent to 1.0704.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1388387675161.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
12-31-2013, 12:35 PM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.2 percent to a new record and the Standard & Poor’s Index remained unchanged. Yesterday German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview that the low-interest rate policies of the central banks can’t last forever. In addition he said that expansive monetary policies lead to problems for long-term investments.
Today the German Chancellor Angela Merkel is going to speak to the Germans in the traditionalNew Year’s Eve. It is assumed that she will tell Germany’s fate is so closely entwined with theEuropean Union that it is imperative to come up with answers on how to permanently fix the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. Beyond that she might say that Germany has still a lot work to do tomaintain its own economic power. Nevertheless the EUR was able to advance for a fourth day versus the USD as Italy sold 3 billion euros of government bonds amid falling borrowing costs which might boost confidence in the euro-zone. Furthermore the EUR strengthened 0.4 percent to 1.3801 USD. The EUR also increased 0.4 percent to 145.09 JPY and the USD/JPY was nearly unchanged at 105.15.
Economists assumed that the CAD had fallen too far and too fast after the Federal Reserve announced the reduction of its bond buying program. Therefore the CAD was able to rose from almost the lowest point in more than three years versus the USD. Investors also estimated that the Bank of Canada will keep benchmark short-term interest rates unchanged through the second half od 2014. The USD/CAD declined more than 0.5 percent to 1.0644. This year the CAD already lost 7.3 percent against the USD, which is the largest annual drop since 2008.
The AUD gained versus the USD to 0.89.18 before data are forecasted to shot that Chinese manufacturing slowed. The AUD declined 15 percent this year, the biggest decline since 2008.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1388478895731.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-02-2014, 12:24 PM
On the last day of December, the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.4 percent to a new record and the Standard & Poor’s Index also advanced 0.4 percent. For the first time since its accession to the European Communities in 1981, Greece will hold the Presidency of the European Union in the first half of 2014. It will hand over reins on 1 July 2014 to Italy.
The EUR was the world’s best-performing major currency this year, while the USD set for its largest annual advance versus the JPY. The EUR strengthened 26 percent against the JPY in 2013 and against the USD, the EUR increased more than 4 percent. Many hedge funds had expected a weak euro zone economy and a reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus program to strengthen the USD in the past year. Last year the USD advanced 18 percent against the JPY.
The EUR/USD traded at 1.3770 and the EUR/JPY was at 144.99. The USD/JPY was at 105.27.
Data showed that American consumers turned more confident in the past month as hiring picked up. In addition another report showed that home prices increased at the fastest speed in more than seven years and manufacturing was in a sustained expansion.
Yesterday data showed that growth in China’s factories slowed slithly in the past month as export orders and output dropped. The official PMI index fell to 51 from 51.4 although economists had forecasted only a decline to 51.2. It is indicating expansion in activity as long as the index remains above 50. This shows that while the world’s second-largest economy remains resilient, it lost momentum in the last months of 2013. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, and after the manufacturing gauge dropped the AUD decreased. The AUD weakenend 0.3 percent versus the USD to 0.8890. Last year the AUD tumbled 14 percent against the USD. The NZD gained 15 percent versus the AUD in the past year. The NZD/USD traded at 0.8202.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1388651066191.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-03-2014, 11:41 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.8 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index decreased 0.9 percent. On Thursday a survey showed that euro zone manufacturing grew at the fastest rate since mid-2011 in the past month. Markit’s Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index climbed to 52.7 in the past month from November’s 51.6, marking its best reading in 31 months. Readings above 50 indicates growth in activity. The mood was largely positive, with the exception of France. While Germany, Italy and Spain are seeing the strongest output growth since early 2011, manufacturing activity in Europe’s second largest economy dropped to a six-month low in December. Investors estimated that the rally of the EUR in 2013 is due for a pause as central-bank policies diverge. In addition they estimated that policy makers in the euro region will add to measures supporting growth while the Federal Reserve prepare to reduce monetary stimulus. Beyond that data showed yesterday that U.S. output expanded more in December than the market had forecasted. As a result, the EUR dropped versus the USD 0.7 percent to 1.3670. The EUR bought 143.27 JPY and the USD/JPY traded at 104.86.
Economists speculated that the Bank of England will keep interest rates at a record low while the Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus at the U.S. economy improves. The British pound dropped the most in 12 weeks versus the USD as an industry report showed that British manufacturing growth unexpectedly cooled in December. The GBP declined 0.8 percent to 1.6460 USD and the EUR/GBP was at 0.8307.
Canada’s currency fell after rising earlier to its strongest level in a week versus the USD, after intitial claims for American jobless benefits decreased to the lowest level in a month. Crude oil, which is Canada’s biggest export tumbled to a one month low. The USD/CAD traded at 1.0667.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1388734794941.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-06-2014, 11:46 AM
On Friday the Dow Jones Index of shares advanced 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index remained unchanged. The USD could climb against the EUR and reached the strongest level in a month before U.S. services and factory data today may show further improvements. The currency pair traded around 1.3586. The Institute for Supply Management may say today its U.S. nonmanufacturing index climbed to 54.6 last month from 53.9 in November. Orders placed with U.S. factories probably rose 1.7 percent in November after falling 0.9 percent the previous period, a separate poll showed. Last week, Bernanke said that the combination of financial healing, greater balance in the housing market, less fiscal restraint and continued monetary policy accommodation bodes well for U.S. economic growth in coming quarters. In December 2013, the Federal Reserve already decided to reduce their bond buying program. The USD dropped 0.5 percent against the JPY. It weakened to 104.37 and continued its 0.3 percent downtrend from the previous week. The EUR also declined 0.5 percent versus the JPY to 141.79 after touching 141.50, the weakest level since the middle of December.
The AUD advanced versus most of its major peers before reports this week forecast to show that the nation`s trade deficit narrowed and retail sales advanced for a fifth month. Economists expect a 0.4 percent advance in Retail Sales. The AUD added 0.2 percent to 0.8966 against the USD and it gained 0.4 percent versus the NZD, the other south pacific nation. AUD/NZD traded around 1.0853. The AUD could gained for the first time in 11 weeks over the five days to Jan. 3. It was the longest losing streak since 1982 for the AUD. It fell 14 percent against the AUD in 2013, the most among its Group of 10 peers after the JPY.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1388994322331.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-07-2014, 12:15 PM
After winning versus its most traded counterparts yesterday, the AUD started with losses against its major peers on speculation its advance toward 90 USD cents was overdone after data showed that traders increased bearish bets to the most in almost four months. The AUD weakened for the first time in four days versus the USD. It dropped from the highest level in almost a month. The total value of trade between Australia and its biggest trading partner China fell for the first time in five months. It dropped to 13.6 billion AUD in November, the first decline since a 6.5 percent drop in June. The trade deficit narrowed to 118 million AUD from a revised 358 million AUD the previous month. Government bonds rose, pushing yields lower, following a gain in U.S. Treasuries
overnight. The AUD declined 0.5 percent to 0.8927 against the USD. Last week, it touched 0.9005, the highest since the beginning of December last year. It weakened 0.2 percent to 1.0795 versus the NZD and continued its downtrend against the JPY. The JPY could win 0.3 percent versus the AUD and traded at 93.178. Yields on 10-year Australian government debt slumped five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 4.33 percent. Ater yesterday touching 4.41 percent, the highest since December 9.
The EUR snapped a gain versus the GBP before data today forecast to show that the region`s inflation approached the slowest level in four years. The European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting on Jan. 9 amid speculation decelerating price growth will prombt the ECB to consider adding to monetary stimulus. The JPY fell after Bank of Japan data showed progress in monetary stimulus and currency volatility plunged the most in 1.5 years. The EUR was little changed at 0.8307 against the JPY. EUR/USD traded around 1.3630.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389082461591.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-08-2014, 12:21 PM
The JPY weakened against most of its 16 major peers as domestic stocks ended a two day slide. It fell for a second day versus the USD as the Topix index of Japanese shares rose 0.8 percent. USD increasd 0.2 percent against the JPY and traded around 104.80. It seems that the upward trend of the currency pair is still intact. Yesterday, JPY already lost 0.4 percent. The EUR could gain 0.3 percent versus the JPY and was at 142.85.
The USD was near a one month high against the EUR before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its policy meeting last month as investors weigh the pace of stimulus tapering by the central bank. The Federal Open Market Committee decided at its December 17-18 meeting to reduce monthly bond purchases. Yesterday, San Francisco Federal President John Williams said that the program may end this year. If the economic recovery plays out as we expect, we will likely continue to reduce the pace of those purchases and eventually eliminate them. This will be an important first step towards eventually bringing monetary policy back to a more normal setting.
Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that the world`s largest economy is far from where we need to be and the Federal Reserve continues to miss both elements of its dual mandate from Congress, inflation and employment. The EURUSD was little changed at 1.3629 after reaching 1.3572 on January 6, the highest during the last two month.
Today, economists expect that the ADP Research Institue may say that companies in the U.S. increased employment by 200,000 workers last month. They added 215,000 in November, the most in a year. This Friday, U.S. will publish payrolls data. Economists expect further economic improvements.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389169190791.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-09-2014, 11:55 AM
Yesterday, the USD could maintain its advance versus most major cunterparts after better than projected jobs data in the U.S and as the Federal Reserve`s minutes showed policy makers saw fewer benefits from bond buying. Japanese index futures climbed in Chicago amid a weaker JPY.
The USD was near a one week high against the JPY while Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures gained 0.7 percent to 16,015 in the U.S. after falling 0.6 percent by 3 a.m. in Osaka. The Standard & Poors 500 Index pared losses while Treasuries fell the first day this week. The JPY was little changed at 104.89 versus the USD. The EUR traded around 1.3576 against the USD after reaching a one month low. ADP report yesterday showed that companies in the U.S. boosted payrolls by 238,000 in December. Economists only expected 200,000. The Labor Department publishes tomorrow the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls. The ADP report may indicates a robust nonfarm payrolls report on Friday this week. Gold was little changed and traded around 1225 per ounce. One day before, gold has lost 0.5 percent. Silver traded unchanged at 19.53 per ounce. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities weakened 0.7 percent in New York. The index continued its downtrend to 3.4 percent this month, the worst start to a year since 2007. Natgas dropped to a one month low on forecasts the polar blast boosting heating fuel demand across the U.S. will be followed by milder weather.
The AUD fell for a third day versus the USD and against the rest of its major peers. Declines in the AUD were limited after figures showed retail sales rose more than economists forecast. Australias retail sales advanced 0.7 percent in November from the previous month. USD increased 0.2 percent to 0.8882 versus the AUD.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389254061221.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-10-2014, 11:56 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones index of shares weakened 0.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index remained unchanged. The AUD headed for a weekly drop against the USD due to speculation that U.S. payrolls data today will encourage the Federal Reserve to continue tapering stimulus that has boosted asset prices. The AUD and the NZD held declines versus most major peers after a report yesterday showed that U.S. initial jobless claims fell to the lowest in a month. The trade surplus shrank in China, the major trading partner of both South Pacific nations. Australias 10- year government bond yield was set for a five day drop. The AUD was little changed at 0.8897 versus the USD. It rose 0.1 percent to 1.0790 against the NZD. NZD weakened 0.2 percent against the USD to 0.8246. This week the AUD has fallen 0.6 percent versus the USD, while the NZD drooped 0.3 percent. The yield on Australias benchmark 10-year bond decreased four basis points from yesterday to 4.28 percent, This year, it already dropped seven basis points. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
In the U.S., data today may show employers added 197,000 jobs last month after boosting positions by 203,000 in November. Yesterday, jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 330,000 in the week ended January 4, the Labor Department said. In China, the trade surplus declined to 25.6 billion USD in December from 33.8 billion USD the previous month. Economists predicted a surplus od 32.2 billion USD. Gains in exports slowed to a 4.3 percent pace from 12.7 percent, while in growth in imports eccelerated to 8.3 percent from 5.3 percent.
The CAD reached the weakest level since 2009 amid speculation slowing economic growth will push the Bank of Canada closer considering lowering interest rates. CAD drooped against 15 of its 16 major counterparts as Candian housing starts and building permits fell. Data earlier this week showed the country`s trade deficit swelled to nine times the forecast and a purchasingmanager index slid to a four year low.



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389340404261.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-13-2014, 12:23 PM
The expectations of the majority of economists regarding an announcement of a stimulus reduction by the Federal Reserve this week have limited the gains of the USD and in succession the JPY benefited. The Japanese currency was able to rise to its highest level in 3 weeks. Since the beginning of this year, the JPY has appreciated 1.8 percent against the USD, the best rise among all tracked major currencies and a first recovery after the 18 percent slide in 2013. This
was caused due to Prime Minister Abe’s plans to implement new measures in his economic strategy. It is scheduled that on the 1st of April, the sales tax will be raised for the first time since 1997 and forecasts are expecting that the nation’s gross domestic product will decline to 4.4 percent in the second quarter, the biggest contraction since the earthquake and the tsunami in March, 2011. In addition, the Bank of Japan announced plans to expand their monetary easing to 70 trillion JPY from 60 trillion JPY on their last meeting in December. As aresult, the JPY increased 0.7 percent and was at 103.46 versus the USD by briefly reaching 103.26, the best since the 18th of December. Also the EUR/JPY dropped 0.6 percent to 141.42.
Furthermore, a government report released on Friday confirmed that the labor market data
remained below Bloomberg News estimates as the number of new jobs was lower than the worst projection of the economists. Therefore also the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index showed the biggest intraday decline within three months and decreased 0.2 percent to 1,021.38 following a 0.4 percent drop on Friday, the most since the 22nd of October. The Index is reflecting the performance of the USD against its 10 most important trading peers.
In contrast to the USD, aslo the AUD enforced against its U.S. counterpart after a suprising boost in real estate loans, which surpassed most predictions. The AUD advanced 0.4 percent to 90.28 U.S.cents after having touched 90.35, the strongest since the 12th of December.

PCMNewsdesk
01-14-2014, 11:29 AM
After having reached a four week peak, the AUD weakened against the NZD as New Zealand’s business confidence jumped close to its best level within two decades in the first quarter of 2014 and also home prices climbed the most in the last six years by adding 10 percent in December compared to the previous year. This was the fastest annual advance since 2007. The majority of Bloomberg strategists are now expecting that Reserve Bank Governor Wheeler will probably raise the borrowing costs from its current level of 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, economists are predicting a remaining high unemployment rate in Australia, which might be confirmed by a government report on the 16th January. As a result, the AUD dropped 0.2 percent to 0.9037 USD following an increase to 0.9086 yesterday, the highest since the 11th December, while it improved against the JPY and was at 93.46 JPY. The AUD/NZD declined to 1.0793 after having strengthening 0.3 percent to 1.0807 the day before. Meanwhile, the NZD succeeded to appreciate to 0.8372 USD from 0.8337 and it advanced 0.4 percent versus the JPY to 86.60. Furthermore, both nation’s most important trading partner China is expected to announce this week that new loan approvals have weakened to 570 billion Yuan in December from 624.6 billion Yuan the month before.
Like the JPY, the Swedish Krona is a currency which has also been strongly affected by deflationary tendencies since the mid-1990s. According to a report by Bloomberg, consumer prices could have decreased by 0.1 percent in December. The SEK managed to fall 3 percent in 2013, the first drop since five years. Since the beginning of this year, the currency has lost a further 0.5 percent and was at 8.8888 against the EUR, which is more than 8 percent away from its 12-year peak around 8.1771 in August 2012. Inflation in the final quarter of 2013 remained below the estimates of the majority of Bloomberg economists and was at the second-slowest pace in the Group of 10 developed nations at a rate similar to the European Union and Switzerland.



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389684517131.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-15-2014, 11:23 AM
Yesterday the World Bank revised their estimates for the global growth to a higher level due to the noticeable recovery thus far. This is part due to and caused by the easing measures of the central banks and successionally increasing exports. Economists raised their forecasts from a 3 percent annual surplus to 3.2 percent compared to a 2.4 percent strengthening in 2013. Furthermore, the survey showed notable forecasts for the European Union, which might recover twice as fast as Japanese businesses and is expected to grow by 2.2 percent this year. The report also rated the agreement of the U.S. Congress regarding the budget and the debt ceiling as positive and expects an accelarting growth of 2.8 percent for the U.S., the same estimate made in June 2013. The USD strengthened from its two-week low against the EUR and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index appreciated to a monthly high after the Federal Open Market Committee pledged a continuation of the easing reduction despite the weaker than expected labor market data on Friday. The EUR/USD declined 0.3 percent to 1.3642 after briefly reaching 1.3699, the best since the 2nd of January. Versus the JPY, the USD climbed 0.2 percent to 104.42 and the EUR was at 142.46, 0.1 percent below yesterday’s close. According to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the USD has advanced 1.2 percent in the past three months, while the 18-nations’ currency rallied 2.2 percent in the same period and the JPY has fallen 5.5 percent. In addition, the European Union’s statistics office might announce today that exports in the Eurozone increased against imports by 14.8 billion EUR in November.

PCMNewsdesk
01-16-2014, 11:50 AM
http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389858547161.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389858547212.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-17-2014, 11:57 AM
This week’s Chinese and U.S. data releases were driving the Asian stocks in a constant up and down rally, which lead to an increasing demand of the Australian bonds and a steadily gaining USD. The U.S. currency is currently targeting towards its best weekly level within two months against most of its major traded counterparts. Recently, the signs for a cooling down of the expansion of the Chinese business have been stacking up and also estimates are predicting that next week’s factory output and investment growth might shrink compared to the previous months.
The nation’s industrial production retracted to 9.8 percent, the lowest in five months, and the gross domestic product grew 7.6 percent in the last quarter of 2013. As a result, the South Pacific currencies were suffering against its U.S. peer and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index continued its streak of consequtive advances in the last five days. It has climbed 0.6 percent for the week and appreciated 0.1 percent to 1,030.12 yesterday. In addition, the bets are rising that in New Zealand and Australia interest rate cuts might be done in the middle of this year, referring to a survey among leading market analysts. As a result the AUD slid close to a 36-month low and also the NZD showed the biggest intraday drop among all major currencies. The AUD/USD has traded at 0.8807 but briefly touched 0.8770, the worst since August 2010, and with a weekly loss of 2.1 percent. A strengthening JPY means that the AUD now buys 91.88 JPY, down from 92.05, heading towards a 1.9 percent appreciation in the period of the last five days. Similar to the AUD, the NZD has dropped 0.7 percent to 0.8296 USD and 0.8 percent to 86.51 JPY.

In contrast to China, this week’s figures of the U.S. economy are heating up the speculations that the Federal Reserve will reduce their monthly easing purchases further in their next meeting. In particular, new applications for jobless benefits decreased to the weakest level within three months and retail sales were above the espectations of the Bloomberg median economists. The next summit is scheduled for the 28 th and 29 th of January. Accordingly, the EUR/USD tumbled to 1.3617 rom 1.3620 the day before and could finish the week with a loss of 0.4 percent today. Meanwhile, the JPY held around yesterday’s close and was at 104.30 aganst the USD following a rise of 0.2 percent yesterday.



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389942471611.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-20-2014, 11:17 AM
On Friday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index declined 0.4 percent. Last week data showed that inflation in the Euro zone slowed in the past month. Consumer prices in the 17 countries sharing the euro increased 0.3 percent, putting the annual inflation rate at 0.8 percent, down from 0.9 percent in November. The ECB wants to keep the inflation close to 2 percent over the medium term and expects a long period of low inflation but sees no immediate risk of deflation. Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Thursday that the current low level is not a major threat to the economic recovery. The president of Germany’s Bundesbank also said on Thursday there was no reason for irrational inflationary fears and dismissed danger of deflation too. He urged France to show its peers how to restore economic competitiveness as it is decisive for the recovery of the whole eurozone. The USD traded close to its highest level since November versus the EUR amid speculation the Federal Reserve will continue reducing stimulus as the U.S. economy is gaining momentum. The EUR dropped more than 0.1 percent against the USD to 1.3520. The USD/JPY traded at 104.10 and the EUR/JPY was at 140.65. Tomorrow the Bank of Japan will start a two-day policy meeting.

China, which is Australia’s largest trading partner and the world’s second-largest economy, today released gross domestic product and showed that the economy grew slightly more than
economists had expected. They forecasted a drop to 7.6 percent in the last quarter in 2013 from a year earlier, coming from 7.8 percent. But the economy in China expanded by 7.7 percent and industrial production declined to a five-month low to 9.7 percent from a year earlier. The AUD strengthened verus the USD to 0.8787 and the AUD/JPY traded at 91.35.

On Friday a government report in the U.K. showed that retail sales advanced at a record pace in December, adding to optimism the recovery is gaining momentum. The GBP/USD traded at
1.6398 after it had touched 1.6456 on Friday.



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1390202224822.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-21-2014, 11:12 AM
Yesterday the US stock market was closed for Martin Luther King day. While data yesterday showed that China’s 2013 economic growth dodged a 14-year low, some economists say a cooldown will be inevitable this year as officials and investors hunker down for difficult reforms.
China’s 2013 economic growth was at 7.7 percent, just slightly above market expectations and the slowest advance since 1999. As a result, the AUD got some relief after China’s data were released and gained 0.4 percent to 0.8812 against the USD. Data showed that inflation in New Zealand accelerated more than investors had expected which lead to a 0.9 percent rise in the NZD/USD to 0.8334.
Yesterday the EUR recovered slightly from a two-month low versus the USD, helped by higher short-term market interest rates, although speculation the ECB may step in capped gains. According to economists the key driver of the euro underperformance is growing market expectations of ECB action to address the tightening money market conditions. This month ECB President Mario Draghi said that an unwarranted increase in interbank lending rates that underpin euro zone borrowing costs would be one of two possible triggers for another rate cut or other easing measures. Today the market has forecasted that data will show the outlook for business confidence in Germany, which is Europe’s biggest economy, climbed to the highest level in almost eight years. Nevertheless the USD strengthened versus most of its major peers on signs the U.S. economy is gaining momentum, supporting the case for Federal Reserve to scale back stimulus.The Federal Open Market Committee is going to meet on January 28-29. The USD/JPY advanced 0.3 percent to 104.44 and the EUR/USD traded at 1.3544. The EUR appreciated 0.2 percent against the JPY to 141.42.



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1390288061651.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-22-2014, 11:59 AM
On Tuesday the Dow Jones Index of shares declined 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index advanced 0.3 percent. Yesterday the International Monetary Fund forecasted that the world economy will grow by more than previously expected this year. In its update to its “World Economic Outlook”, the IMF estimated a global economic growth of 3.7 percent this year, its last forecast from October 2013 was around 3.6 percent. They said that financial conditions in advanced economies have eased but they also warned that some advanced economies in the euro zone were at risk from very low inflation. IMF chief Economist Oliver Blanchard pointed out that deflation is a risk for the euro zone. He said that there is a 10 to 20 percent probability that prices could start to fall in the euro zone and therefore called on the European Central Bank to do everything it can to anchor price expectations and boost demand.

Today the Bank of Japan will begin its policy meeting amid speculation they will delay expanding stimulus depending on the economic outlook and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s statement. The JPY traded close to its highest level in six weeks versus the EUR and held its best start to a year versus the USD since 2010. The EUR/JPY trade at 141.34 and the USD/JPY was at 104.17. The EUR bought 1.3564 USD.

Economists estimated that data today will show U.K. unemployment dropped to the lowest level in 4 ½ years. As a result the EUR nearly touched a one year low versus the GBP around 0.8228. Today the Bank of Canada will release its rate decision and the market expects that the bank may signal in a policy statement it will favor lower interest rates but leave the rate unchanged at 1 percent. The USD/CAD traded at 1.0964.



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/139037746011.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-24-2014, 12:10 PM
Global equity markets sold off yesterday on disappointing Chinese manufacturing data and weak corporate earnings. Factory activity in China contracted in January for the first time in six months. The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index in China dropped below the level of 50 to 49.6 and reinforced concerns about global growth, especially in commodity-sensitive emerging markets. As a result the Dow Jones Index of shares declined 1.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 0.9 percent yesterday.

On Thursday data showed that manufacturing in the euro area increased to the highest in more than 2 ½ years, and therefore boosting optimism that growth in Europe is gathering momentum. Manufacturing output in Europe climbed to 53.9 in January, in Germany it even climbed to 56.3. Market services rose to 51.9 from 51 in the previous month, economists had predicted an increase of 51.4. In addition Spain sold a record 10 billion euros of bonds via banks on Wednesday amid a surge in demand for the securities of Europe’s peripheral countries.

Furthermore a survey published this week showed that 57 percent of investors, analysts and traders judged the worst of Europe’s debt crisis to be over. Beyond that reports yesterday showed only a small rise in weekly jobless claims, which rose by 1,000 to 326,000 in the period ended January 18. U.S. existing home sales appreciated 1 percent in the past month after three months of declines. The EUR strengthened the most in almost four weeks versus the USD to 1.3690. The EUR/JPY traded at 141.48 and the USD/JPY declined 1.2 percent to 103.30.

The market estimates that the Bank of England will raise interest rates sooner than they have predicted because the economy shows signs of gaining momentum. The GBP/USD appreciated to the higest level since May 2011 to 1.6630. The EUR/GBP rose to 0.8230



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1390550501261.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-27-2014, 12:01 PM
The JPY touched a seven week high against the USD. Traders around the world reduced their bets that the JPY will weaken versus the USD. The USD dropped 0.2 percent to 102.15 after touching 101.77, the lowest since the beginning of December 2013. Last week, the JPY rallied over 2 percent against the USD. EUR slid 0.2 percent too and traded around 139.80. The JPY is the best performer among its major peers this year. It could increase 3.1 percent versus the USD.
In 2013, it lost 18 percent which is the most among the 10 biggest currencies. The Topix index of Japanese shares tumbled 2.8 percent today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.9 percent. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds was little changed at 2.72 percent, after reaching 2.70 percetn at the end of last week which is the lowest since Novmeber 2013. Emerging market currencies around the world dropped. The Argentine peso weakened 15 percent last week as the country`s central bank scaled back its intervention to preserve international reserves. In Turkey, the central bank`s first unscheduled intervention in more than two years failed to stem the lira`s decline. It dropped 5 percent last week.
Britain`s economy probably capped its best year of growth since 2007 during the last quarter, bringing Mark Carney closer to completing what he calls the “first phase” of his low interest-rate policy. Gross domestic rose 0.7 percent. Carney, the Bank of England governor, repeated at the weekend that he wants exceptionally loose monetary policy for some time to give an extra fillip to growth that remains uneven. The Monetary Commiteeis waiting for business investments to join a revival in consumer spending, something is forecasts may start later this year. On Friday the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 2 percent and the Dow Jones Index fell even 2.1 percent.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1390809631251.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
01-28-2014, 02:03 PM
The USD extended its gains versus the JPY as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting. Economists around the world expect that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the U.S. central bank`s monthly asset purchases, at the moment at 75 billion USD, by 10 billion USD at each of its meetings to end the stimulus program this year. The JPY dropped versus its most traded counterparts as Asian increased. Beyond that the market speculated that Turkey`s central bank will raise interest rates on a meeting today. In addition China`s largest lender said investors in a troubled high-yield trust can recop funds. The AUD could rise against the JPY and the USD as global stocks stabilized. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of region stocks was little changed after dropping 3.7 percent over the previous three days.
The GBP was near its strongest level since May 2011 against the USD before data today forecast to show economic growth accelerated. Furthermore GBP gained versus 12 of its 16 major peers. The market expects an 2.8 percent rate for the nation`s gross domestic product in the last quarter.
The USD rose 0.2 percent to 102.71 against the JPY. Yesterday it touched 101.77, the weakest level since the beginning of December 2013. The EUR traded unchanged against the USD around 1.3675. JPY lost 0.2 percent versus the EUR and reached 140.45 after touching 139.20 yesterday, the lowest for the EUR since 2 months. The AUD rose 0.6 percent to 0.9019 versus the JPY. Yesterday, it already increased 0.9 percent, the biggest in more than a month. USD dropped 0.5 percent to 0.8783 against the AUD. This year, the USD has climbed 0.7 percent. The JPY is the best performer in 2014 at the moment, it could rise 3.5 percent. The EUR gained 0.2 percent.

PCMNewsdesk
01-29-2014, 02:14 PM
Yesterday, orders for long-lasting equipment unexpectedly slumped in December by the most in five months. This indicates U.S. companies are less sure than households that the economy is strengthening. EUR could climb against the USD and traded around 1.3670.Japanese and U.S. stock index futures increased while crude oil retreated. The lira jumped the most since 2008 while the JPY and gold extended declines after Turkey ́s central bank more than doubled interest rates to arrest a currency slide that roiled global markets. The central bank raised Turkey`s benchmark rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent. The lira surged 3 percent versus the USD. The currency pair rose to 2.1845. Gold slipped 0.4 percent. It is the third day in a row. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures could gain 1.3 percent in the Osaka pre-market and Australian stocks snapped a four day slide. Standard and Poor`s 500 Index futures climbed 0.5 percent after the gauge rose 0.6 percent. Oil in New York dropped from a four week high and natural gas fell. The NZD could continue its bullish trend due to Turkish central bank decision. It added 0.2 percent against the USD to 0.8270. New Zealand`s central bank reviews interest rates tomorrow. The JPY, viewd by some as a safe-haven investment, weakened 0.4 percent to 103.37 versus the USD. The currency pair lost for a third consecutive day. The JPY also dropped a third day against the EUR, falling 0.3 percent to 141.15. Last week, the JPY rallied 2 percent against the USD amid the emerging-market selloff.Gold, also known as a safe haven investment, dropped to 1,252.63 an ounce, while silver decreased 0.3 percent. Crude Oil rebounded to 97.12 a barrel after surging 1.8 percent yesterday. Natural gas lost 1.6 percent.

PCMNewsdesk
01-30-2014, 12:49 PM
After 3 days of losses, the JPY could recover against its most traded counterparts as prospects forcontinued contraction in U.S. stimulus dented demand for riskier assets including the currencies ofnations from Australia and South Africa. Yesterday, the USD climbed versus most emergingmarket currencies as the Federal Rerserve cut monthly bond buying by 10 billion USD, offsettingefforts in South Africa and Turkey to bolster their currencies through interest-rate increases. The AUD and the NZD fell after a private report signaled a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing. China is the biggest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand. The demand for the NZD also weakened as its central bank held rates steady, disappointing traders who were betting on an increase.
The JPY gained 0.1 percent to 102.16 against the USD. It rose 0.2 percent versus the EUR and traded around 139.49 after yesterday reaching 139.05, the highest since the beginning of December 2013. It also climbed 0.2 percent against the AUD. AUDJPY traded around 89.21. The USD was litte changed at 1.3653 per EUR.
The Fed said yesterday it will trim its monthly bond buying program to 65 billion USD from 75 billion USD. Today, U.S. will publish its gross domestic product. The market expects that gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2 percent annulized pace in the fourth quarter while private consumption grew 3.7 percent.
New Zealands Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler kept benchmark rates at a record-low 2.5 percent at a policy meeting this night. Swaps trading prior to the decision had priced about an even chance of increase.



http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1391071109412.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-03-2014, 11:51 AM
Signs for an accelerating slowdown of the Chinese economy are increasing after a government gauge dropped to a six-month low in January due to weaker than estimated manufacturing output and falling industrial orders. Economists expressed that this might be the effects of the latest efforts to curb the growing credit. Also the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics announced that the Purchasing Managers’ Index remained at 50.5 compared to a Bloomberg forecast of 51, which still indicates growth, but the survey also confirmed that unemployment grew and the export orders declined. Furthermore, the experts are convinced that the central bank “will have to strike a delicate balance” between the combat of shadow banking and the maintenance of the financial stability as well as economic growth.
Besides China, the concerns regarding inflation in the European Union have put downward pressure on the EUR, which traded 0.1 percent from its weakest level in more than eight weeks. These inflation concerns have increased the probability of further easing by the ECB. The end of the week saw some slight respite as the 18 nation’s currency managed to momentarily show strength to rebound to 1.3491 after it reached 1.3479, the lowest since the 22nd of November. The JPY was able to benefit by appreciating 3.2 percent in January and established the highest monthly increase versus the USD in almost 24 months. In Asian trade overnight, the JPY lost against the USD and the EUR and was at 102.31 and 138.04 respectively, 0.3 percent below Friday’s close. The next announcement by the Japanese Central Bank Governor on whether the monthly stimulus will still continue, is scheduled for the 6th of February.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1391413278051.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-04-2014, 12:05 PM
Last night the BOJ Governor Kurodo explained to the Japanese parliament that the intentions of the monthly easing program are starting to work and the annual inflation rate will probably rise to the central bank’s targe of 2 percent from the end of the current fiscal year in March 2015. The 52 percent increase of the nation’s monetary base last month was the greatest since November. Currently, the balance is at 200.9 trillion JPY. But the BOJ has announced plans to raise the balance up to 270 trillion JPY by the end of this year. As a result, the currency dropped from its 10-week peak against the USD helped along by another survey which showed that the latest strengthening of the JPY might be too fast considering the current course of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. The USD/JPY rebounded 0.3 percent to 101.26 after having lost 1.2 percent to100.78 the day before, the weakest since the 21st of November. Meanwhile, the JPY decreased 0.2 percent versus the EUR and was at 136.81 following a 3 percent rise in the previous four-day period. The 18 nation’s currency has tumbled 0.1 percent to 1.3508. In addition, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the performance of the USD against its 10 most traded peers, remained nearly unchanged at 1,029.72 after a 0.2 percent drop yesterday. In contrast, the AUD benefited from the announcements of the Reserve Bank’s outlook that the economy’s growth is looking to accelerate. Furthermore, the central bank controlled cash rate will be kept at historically low levels. The comments helped the AUD to jump 1.4 percent to 0.8877 USD and advance 1.5 percent to 89.93 JPY.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/13915008171.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-05-2014, 11:47 AM
According to the latest reports, the solvency of the U.S. government will only last until the end of February. Therefore the negotiations between the Democrats and the Republivians regarding the increasing of the debt ceiling will be started once again. Referring to statements of the “Washington Post”, the approval of the Republicans will depend on rolling back parts of Barack Obama’s health service reform. This was also the main reason why the U.S. barely squeezed past illiquidity in October when temporarily a range of public authorities were closed. With specific reference to that event Finance Minister Lew seriously warned the Congress of new troubles on the financial markets if the implemention of a new debt ceiling does not run smoothly.
Today the U.S. Institute for Supply Management will release it latest figures of the non-manufacturing sector for January. So far this week published economic data of the UK, China and U.S. remained below the economists’ estimates.
The demand for Commodities increased for a second day in succession and silver is set to establish the longest period of continous daily gains since October. It climbed 0.4 percent to 19.57 USD per ounce and also Crude Oil appreciated 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are falling and the Japanese shares are recovering their lowest levels in five months.
The NZD slid 0.4 percent against it U.S. counterpart after having rallied 2 percent the day before and reaching the highest point since November 2011. The AUD traded similarly versus the USD after the Reserve Bank announced the maintenance of the current key benchmark at 2.5 percent after two years of subsequent interest rate cuts. As a result, the AUD/USD was at 0.8888. Against othr currencies the AUD dropped 0.6 percent against the JPY to 90.17 after a rise of 2.7 percent yesterday, which is the most since the 4th April.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1391586398931.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-06-2014, 11:54 AM
The Australian Dollar strengthened after the announcement of a surprising trade surplus of 468 million AUD in December mainly due to the nation’s most important trade partner, China. The release showed two-way trade with China reached a new high backed in the most part by iron ore and coal exports. Experts have rated this development as a positive sign for the recovery of the Chinese economy and it might rebut the latest concerns regarding Chinese business and global growth. Meanwhile, retail sales figures fulfilled the economists’ forecasts and rose 0.5 percent. As a result, the AUD advanced against the USD by 0.6 percent.
Asian stocks increased for the second day in a row and the S&P 500 Index futures added 0.2 percent following the third drop in four days. Recently, the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to slowly retreat from their monthly easing from 85 million USD to 75 million USD caused a strong withdrawal of funds from the emerging-market currencies. In spite of this, the currencies of the South Pacific area climbed yesterday along with a growing demand for silver, which fetched 0.1 percent capping off a fifth day in a row of intraday gains. This is the longest period since December. In contrast, gold remained nearly unchanged.
Today brings rate decisions from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. No change is expected in the BOE’s official bank rate or asset purchase facility but, as always, the market will be closely monitoring the comments which follow the decision. This interest is only heightened by the signs of recovery in the British economy. The European Central Bank is also set to meet and announce their monetary policy for the next month. Inflation dropped to the weakest in four years in January and this will no doubt be an important topic of discussion. Although no change is expected in the minimum bid rate, the comments following the meeting will set the tone for the ECB’s next policy steps.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1391673148581.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-07-2014, 11:53 AM
Yesterday the weekly U.S. labor market data surpassed the economists’ expectations and this lead to Asian stocks continuing their gains. Chinese stocks bucked the trend and declined after the Chinese New Year holidays. Concerns regarding the wavering China’s financial system due to the increasing risk of escalating lendings are still on the table as well as the negative sentiments regarding the current outlook for the Emerging Markets. The U.S. Labor Department announced yesterday that the approvals for unemployment benefits decreased by 20,000 to 331,000 last week, the first time we’ve seen a drop this year. Forecasts were that the jobless claims would be at 335,000. A report by Bloomberg News predicts that nonfarm payrolls released today will show 180,000 new jobs added in January following a surplus of 74,000 employees in December.
Experts rated this development as an acceleration of the economic recovery, which was on the slowest pace within three years in December. Also the unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 6.7 percent, the lowest since 2008. This might spur the Federal Reserve to finish up its monthly easing by the end of 2014. In contrast to the previous days, the JPY appreciated against most of its 16 trading counterparts and gold advanced, while AUD, NZD and silver tumbled. The JPY rallied 0.1 percent against the USD and traded at 101.98 JPY compared to yesterday’s 0.7 percent fall to 102.11. The EUR/JPY kept its previous level at 138.60. Meanwhile, the EUR fetched 0.4 percent versus the USD to 1.3592 USD, the best since the 23rd January, after having dropped 0.7 percent the day before. Besides the EUR, silver also the weakened for the first time in six days and was 0.4 percent below yesterday’s close. Simultaneously, gold increased 0.3 percent and is now set to establish a 1.4 percent weekly gain. In addition, oil tumbled 0.1 percent after touching the strongest level since the end of December.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1391759456381.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-10-2014, 12:40 PM
On Friday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 1.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index even appreciated 1.3 percent. Last week US reports showed mixed results, underscoring the US economy is recovering uneven. Payrolls grew only by 113,000 in January, economists had forecasted an increase of 180,000. The unemployment rate declined to 6.6 percent but remains elevated which lead to speculation that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace if reduction in bond buying program. As a result the USD had the largest weekly drop since October and touched a three week low versus the EUR. The common currency weakened earlier on Friday before it raised again as the European Court of Justice has been asked to rule on a claim that the region’s central bank overstepped its powers in announcing the Outright Monetary Transactions in September 2012. This still inactive program allows the ECB to buy bonds of indebted nations to calm record borrowing costs. Last week ECB President Mario Draghi said that they could take action to counter low inflation when more data is available, so he signalled that in its next meeting in March might be a different matter. The EUR/USD increased to 1.3620 and the USD/JPY rose to 102.50. The EUR gained 1.4 percent to 139.70 JPY.
The CAD strengthened against most of its 16 major peers as data showed that Canada added 29,400 jobs in the past month and the jobless rate fell. This damped speculation that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates to spur the economy. The USD/CAD tumbled 0.9 percent to 1.1032. Several central banks from Turkey to India raised interest rates to stem outflows. The NZD advanced based on optimism that improvement in jobs market led to an interest rate increase as early as next month.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/139202136521.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-11-2014, 11:37 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares remained unchanged and the Standard & Poor’s Index appreciated 0.2 percent. A gauge of major currency volatility dropped to the lowest level in more than two weeks before new Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen is going to give her first monetary-policy report to Congress today. Last week she took over from Ben Bernanke the helm of the Fed and traders are awaiting the latest economic and policy views from her. The market expect that she will stick to replies that would hit expectations the Fed will hold short-term rates near zero for an extended period to support the economy. In addition economists estimated that reports this week might show U.S. retail sales stalled while jobless claims fell. Tomorrow another report might show that industrial production in the euro area dropped in December. Beyond that the Ministry of Finance in Japan said the nation’s current-account deficit widened to a record.
Nevertheless the JPY was still able to gain versus the most of its 16 major counterparts. The USD/JPY traded at 102.26 and the EUR/JPY was at 139.54. The EUR climbed 0.1 percent to 1.3670 USD.
An industry report in U.K. showed that retails sales increased in the past month more than estimated, adding to evidence the recovery is gaining momentum. The GBP touched a one week high versus the USD and was at 1.6420. The EUR bought 0.8320 GBP.
New European banking supervisor said in an interview that if any of the region’s participating banks fail the European Central Bank’s comprehensive assessment then they should be allowed to go under. Furthermore excess liquidity in the euro zone will be near current levels at the end of this quarter as banks slow repayments of their crisis loans. The ECB pumped over a trillion euros into banks’ coffers in two long-term refinancing operations and banks have almost repaid half of those loans.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1392104232491.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-13-2014, 01:37 PM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares tumbled 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index remained unchanged. On Wednesday the U.S. posted a smaller budget deficit than expected in January, a sign that a stronger economy is helping government coffers through a rise in a tax receipts. Today a report is forecast to show U.S. retail sales stalled last month after a 0.2 percent rose the month before. In addition initial jobless claims might also have dropped. Today Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen should have testified to the Senate Banking Committee but it will be postponed because of a storm forecast to dump heavy snow on the U.S. East Coast. The EUR declined the second day versus the USD to 1.3595. The USD/JPY was at 102.45 and the EUR/JPY was at 139.33.
Yesterday the Bank of England said that interest rates could be increased from record low of 0.5 percent in little more than a year if the economy continues to gain momentum. They pointed out that in the next three years the interest rate will stand at 2 percent again. The jobless dropped to 7.1 percent and the Bank of England estimated it will reach 6.5 percent next year. The GBP touched a two week high against the USD and was at 1.6603.
China surpised the market as yesterday data showed that import climbed to a six-month high, drawing some skepticism about the data but still allaying fears of deepening economic malaise. Some analysts warned that the figures might be inflated by fake trade transactions. The value of total exports of China strengthened 10.6 percent in January from a year earlier and the value of imports also gained 10 percent from a year earlier. China’s trade surplus advanced to $31.9 billion, which is above market forecasts. China is Australias biggest trading partner and reports today showed that unemployment rate in Australia increased to 6 percent, the highest in more than 10 years. The AUD/USD declined to 0.8962.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1392284135111.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-14-2014, 12:02 PM
On Thursday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index even strengthened 0.6 percent. Yesterday data showed that U.S. retail sales dropped 0.4 percent in the past month, marking a second down month for retail sales. These data were weaker than previously estimated and therefore the market suggests that the economic growth is loosing momentum based on the adverse-weather conditions as yet another storm battered the eastern U.S.. In addition a report yesterday also showed that more Americans filed for jobless benefits last week than expected. Jobless claims climbed by 8,000 to 339,000 while economists had forecasted a drop to 330,000. As a result the USD headed for a weekly decline versus most of its 16 major counterparts before reports today that may show industrial production increased moderated, while consumer sentiment tumbled. Output at factories, mines and utilities might have rose 0.2 percent in February after increasing 0.3 percent in December. Today also data might show that the European economy grew 0.2 percent during the last quarter of 2013 for a third- straight period. The USD/JPY traded at 102.25 and set for a 0.1 percent decline this week.
Yesterday the EUR bought 1.3692 USD, its strongest level since January 27. The EUR/JPY traded at 139.77 and set for a 0.2 percent advance this week. The GBP touched its highest level versus the USD in nearly three years and was at 1.6653.
Yesterday a government report showed that unemployment rate in Australia rose to 6 percent, the worst rate in a decade. Options traders pushed bets versus the AUD to the highest level in almost three weeks. Yesterday the AUD/USD dropped to 0.8927, and is trading now at 0.9003.
Gold climbed to a three-month high, targeting a break above $1,300 after disappointing U.S . retail sales data.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1392364850731.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-17-2014, 11:51 AM
The JPY started with gains into the new trading week. Japan`s currency increased versus 13 of its 16 major counterparts after a report showed that the country`s economic growth unexpectedly slowed. The AUD recovered from its downtrend after a report showed record new credit last month in China. China is the South Pacific nations`s biggest trading partner. The JPY rose 0.3 percent to 101.53 against the USD. It could extend its upward trend. Last week, it already rose 0.5 percent. It strengthened 0.1 percent versus the EUR. This currency pair is trading around 139.30. The EUR opened 20 pips higher at market opening against the USD. It has touched 1.3720, the highest level since the middle of January. Today, the US market will be closed due to holidays. Japan`s gross domestic product expanded at an annualized 1 percent pace in the final three months of 2013, down from a 1.1 percent expansion in the preceding quarter, the Cabinet Office said today. The Topix index of Japanese shares declined as much as 1 percent. In the U.S., factory production unexpectedly dropped in January by the most since May 2009, according to a report released on Feb. 14, adding to evidence the severe winter weather is weighing on the economy. Yellen delivered her first public remarks as Fed chief last week, as policy makers pursue plans to gradually scale back the unprecedented bond-purchases program she helped put in place. She repeated the Fed`s outlook for further reductions in measured steps and that assets purchases aren`t on a pre-set course.
The Federal Open Market Committee said in January it will cut monthy bond purchases by 10 billion USD to 65 billion USD. The USD fell 1.5 percent in the past month. JPY increased 1.5 percent and the EUR has weakened 0.1 percent.

PCMNewsdesk
02-18-2014, 11:57 AM
The JPY remained lower versus most of its 16 major counterparts before the Bank of Japan concludes a two day meeting amid speculation a weaker economy will require more stimulus in the coming months. Japan`s currency maintained its losses against its U.S. and European peers following data yesterday that showed the nation`s growth in the fourth quarter missed economists estimates. The USD remained lower versus the EUR before a report today that analysts forecast will show manufacturing in the New York region slowed this month. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York`s general economic index probably fell this month after climbing in January to the highest since May 2012. AUD advanced after minutes of the Reserve Bank`s February meeting signaled a period of steady interes rates. Record low borrowing costs and a lower exchange rate helping economic growth. The AUD rose 0.4 percent to 0.9068 against the USD after earlier touching 0.9081, the strongest level since the middle of January.
The JPY traded little unchanged against the USD around 101.96. It traded at 139.77 per EUR after following a 0.2 percent drop to 139.70. The USD was unchanged at 1.3707 versus the EUR after a 0.8 percent decline over the previous three days. Due to the U.S. holiday yesterday, the markets kept within tight ranges.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose for the frist time in three days as signs of an improving U.S. economy and record new credit in China bolstered the demand outlook for the world`s two biggest oil consumers.
Gold and silver dropped overnight. After reaching $1,330 yesterday, Gold started with losses and dropped to $1,320. Silver decreased 20 cents from $21.85 to $21.65.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1392710126321.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-19-2014, 11:22 AM
The USD dropped to a seven week low against the EUR before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its January meeting which will give investors better indications for the stance of policy makers on recent economic data. Data today is forecasted to show U.S. housing starts and building permits fell in January. U.S. housing starts probably fell 4.9 percent to a 950,000 annualized rate in January after December`s 9.8 percent drop. Economists also expect that building permits decreased 1.6 percent to 975,000 last month from December.
The GBP traded near its highest levels in more than four years before figures are forecasted to show the U.K. jobless rate held at lows last seen in March 2009. Economists expect that the unemployment rate will stay steady at 7.1 percent in December. The Bank of England will today release minutes of its Feb. 5-6 meeting when policy makers kept the interest rate at a record low 0.5 percent. Governor Mark Carney last week put spare capacity at the center of interest rate policy now that unemployment is close to breaching the 7 percent threshold. The consideration of a rate increase comes two years earlier than officials projected when forward guidance was introduced in August.
The AUD retreated from the monthly highs as Asian stocks declined and ahead of a gauge of Chinese manufacturing tomorrow forecast to show continued contraction. The USD was little changed at 1.3761 against the EUR. It earlier reached 1.3773, the weakest since the beginning of 2014. The GBP fetched 1.6680 from 1.6684. Two days ago, GBP touched 1.6823. This was the highest level against the USD since November 2009. The JPY added 0.2 percent to 102.21 against the USD. Japan´s currency rallied 0.1 percent to 140.66 versus the EUR. Yesterday, it touched 141.03, the highest since the end of January.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1392794500811.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-20-2014, 11:39 AM
The AUD weakened against all its major peers after a private report signaled Chinese manufacturing dropped more than economists forecast. China is the biggest trading partner of the South Pacific nation. All data coming from China will influence the performance of the AUD and NZD. The AUD slid for a fourth day versus the USD after Federal Reserve policy makers indicated yesterday in minutes of their January meeting that weaker economic reports won`t interrupt plans to taper stimulus. The AUD fell 0.6 percent to 0.8944. In the previous three days it already lost 0.5 percent. The JPY could strengthen over 1 percent against the AUD. It was the biggest loss for the AUD yesterday. The NZD decreased 0.2 percent to 0.8256 against the USD and dropped 0.6 percent versus the JPY. The currency pair traded around 84.19.
In the U.S., Federal Reserve policy makers backed away from their year old commitment to consider raising interest rates when unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. With joblessness falling faster than expected even as other labor market indicators show weakness, policy makers agreed it would soon be appropriate to revise their guidance about how long the era of record low interest rates will remain, minutes of their January meeting showed.
Several policy makers also said that in the absence of an appreciable change in the economic outlook, there should be a clear presumption in favor of continuning to trim the Fed´s bond purchases by $10 billion at each meeting. Central bankers are seeking to provide clarity on their plans for continuing to support the economy, both with low interest rates and dwindling bond purchases, after unemployment dropped last month to 6.6 percent, the lowest in more than five years.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1392881228781.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-21-2014, 11:11 AM
The USD rose versus most of its major counterparts this week on bets the Federal Reserve will press on with reducing stimulus, even amid weaker U.S. economic data that may have been caused by winter storms.
The USD headed for its biggest weekly advance this year against its Japanese peer before Fed Chair Janet Yellen joins Group of 20 officials in talks starting tomorrow. Yellen will join G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Sydney. The central bank´s January meeting minutes released this week signaled policy makers supported a continued decrease in bond purchases. The JPY slid as demand for haven assets was curbed while regional stocks gained. The AUD was set for its first five day drop in four weeks after iron ore prices fell. The USD added 0.2 percent to 102.51 against the JPY. It extended its gain this week to 0.7 percent, the biggest since the five days through December 27. It was little changed at 1.3719 per EUR and is set for a 0.2 percent weekly drop. Europe´s shared currency advanced 0.2 percent to 140.63 JPY and has risen 0.9 percent since February 14.
The JPY slid versus most of its peers as investors sought higher yielding assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares rose 0.9 percent, while Japan´s Topix index climbed 1.9 percent. The Standard & Poor´s 500 Index of U.S. equities gained 0.6 percent yesterday, the biggest advance in more than a week.
The AUD weakened after prices for iron ore, its biggest export, dropped 1.2 percent over two days to $122.90 a metric ton yesterday. Total iron ore inventory at Chinese ports monitored by Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co. climbed to 100.3 million tons in the week ended Feb. 14, the highest in figures going back to March 2009.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1392966537061.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-25-2014, 12:40 PM
US stocks closed just 1 point off their record highs yesterday evening after breaking the record highs earlier in the trading day. These rcords come after disappointing data has been schrugged off by the market with most analysts believing that merely poor weather is to blame and the recovery in the US is still on track. There are talks of merger activity currently seems to be fueling the optimism. However, the USD is feeling the pinch with the Dollar Index currently heading for its biggest monthly decline since September.
In terms of currency news, the Euro has remained under pressure against most of the other majors as the market has started placing bets on an increase of current easing by the ECB. The central bank will publish its inflation expectations on March 6. In fact, some economists believe that the central bank will even cut interest rates in the first quarter of this year. It all comes after consumer prices met expectations yesterday rise by 0.8 percent annually in January. That is well below the ECB’s target of 2 percent. Yesterday, the Euro dropped 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent against the Pound and the Yen respectively.
As for the currencies which are largely affected by commodity prices, they look to post the largest gains of the major currencies in February. The Norwegian Krone has risen 4.1 percent. While Brazil’s Real, the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar are all up around 3 percent. That compares with the Dollar Index which has declined 1.1 percent so far this month.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1393317629571.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-26-2014, 12:10 PM
The Australian Dollar has seen more losses after iron-ore prices reached a seven-month low overnight. Iron-ore prices declined to $119.10 per metric ton. Data out of Australia also saw an unexpected 1 percent decline in construction work done compared to an expected increase of 0.2 percent. The dollar remains around the 90 cent handle against the U.S. Dollar down by 0.2 percent in the Asian session. The Australian Dollar has also been under pressure because of news out of China. The world’s second largest economy is not only Australia’s largest trading partner but also a proxy for the commodity and emergind market economies.
The Chinese Yuan has touched its weakest levels since July after the Chinese Government has decided to lift a cap on foreign-currency deposits below $3m on March 1. They are also looking to strengthen controls on land prices to ensure that they remain “reasonable”. The Yuan was also weighed down by the reduction of the reference rate on the currency.
The Euro remains little changed against other major currencies in a market that has seen little change overnight. The main fundamental news for the 18-nation currency will be coming out next week as the European Central Bank makes its decision on interest rates and its easing program. A Deutsche Bank index shows that volatility for nine major currency pairs has dropped to 7.25 percent which is the lowest level since December 12.
In terms of U.S. news, stimulus also remains in the headlines. Recent weak data has not disencouraged policy makers as Chairwoman Yellen announced that the outlook remains the same and only large deviations from this would lead to a bond purchases failing to be reduced. New home sales and durable goods orders data is due out today giving possibly more insight into just how the recovery of the U.S. economy is progressing.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1393402109351.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
02-28-2014, 11:33 AM
The Japanese yen rose against all it’s major peers overnight amid rising tensions in Ukraine which pushed markets towards traditional safehaven currencies. Data releases also showed that the rate of inflation is at a five-year high in Japan which is fueling speculation that its central bank may put stimulus programs on hold. The yen is up 0.3 percent to about 101.81 against the USD and is in line for a 0.7 percent rise over the week. The Swiss franc also benefited from the flight to safety as it reached its highest levels in 10 months against the euro. It currently trades around 1.2172.
As Russia began a string of military exercises near its western borders and the region of Crimea threatening move against the new government in Ukraine, currencies in Europe have been taking a hit. Markets are concerned that these tensions may cause accidental clashes between east and west. As for the euro itself, there is more European data today including consumer prices and unemployment. These two releases will give markets further indications as to how the ECB will act at its policy meeting next week. It currently trades around 1.3698 against the USD.
Important GDP and consumption data will be released in the U.S. this afternoon. It is expected that the economy expanded by an annualized 2.5% in the fourth quarter which is a reduction from 3.2% in the previous quarter. These numbers could play a particularly important role after Yellen’s comments in front of the Senate Banking Committee yesterday stating that the recent soft data needs to be evaluated on exactly how much is due to the wintery weather in North America.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1393572671681.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-04-2014, 11:20 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares weakened 0.9 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also tumbled 0.7 percent. Until now Russia paid a heavy financial price for its military intervention in Ukraine, with stocks, bonds and the rouble decreasing to a record. As a consequence the Russian central bank raised interest rates. Beyond that data yesterday showed that U.S. factory activity increased from an eight-month low in February, which is more than economists had estimated. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index of national factory activity climbed to 53.2 from 51.3. Furthermore U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, also rose 0.4 percent in January from 0.1 percent in December. This is also more than the market had expected, suggesting the U.S. economy is gaining momentum after it had slowed down in the past months. The EUR/USD weakened to 1.3735.
Yesterday European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in his speech in Brussels that officials are seeing progress in lending and an improvement in loan demand. He said that credit flows are still subdued, but they decline at a lower rate. This Thursday policy makers are going to update quarterly forecasts after a month of studying new economic data in the euro area. Lending to companies and households in the euro region contracted 2.2 percent in January from a year earlier.
Japan’s currency was close to a one month high against the USD, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is boosting demand for haven assets. The JPY strengthened versus most of its 16 major peers and was at 101.42 per USD. The EUR/JPY was at 139.34.


http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1393917525711.gif (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-12-2014, 12:20 PM
The Australian dollar continued its losses overnight after poor Chinese data was supplemented by disappointing consumer confidence and business sentiment reports as well. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar has remained fairly strong over the same period as the central bank there is expected to increase interest rates later this evening. Similarly, the yen also held its value due to its statues as the Asian safehaven currency. It currently trades around 103 per dollar and 142.75 against the euro.

On the back of the Chinese data, there are a few analytical indices worth mentioning. Deutsche Bank’s Currency Volatility Index is currently down at 7.17 percent which is testing lows on December 2012. The index measures volatility in nine major world currency pairs and shows how little movement there currently is in currency markets as they wait for the next indicator for a clear direction. Raw Material indices are also falling dramatically after that Chinese data puts downward pressure on many different commodities.
The euro remains close to two and a half year highs with industrial production data for the region due out later today. Economists are forecasting a return to growth in January with expectations being that output grew by 0.5 percent for the month.
In geopolitical news, the rhetoric about Ukraine is intensifying as world leaders continue to condemn the Russian army staying in Crimea. The referendum scheduled for this weekend is putting particular pressure on meetings between the interim Prime Minister and U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington. The deposed President of Ukraine has warned that there is a chance of civil war in the troubled country. Neither party seems to be backing down at present.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=27 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-13-2014, 12:54 PM
News out of New Zealand and Australia helped the two south pacific nations’ currencies to rebound after poor week for most Asian currencies so far this week. New Zealand became the first developed nation to raise interest rates since 2011 yesterday. Although the decision was expected by most economists, the currency still rose against its U.S. dollar counterpart. Australia released it’s monthly jobs report overnight which showed a far greater increase in the amount of jobs than expected. It showed that 47,000 jobs were added in February which was more than triple the 15,000 expected. In a good sign for the economy as a whole, the number of full-time jobs was over 80,000 which is the greatest increase since the last time the country came out of a recession in 1991. Despite the good data, the unemployment rate remains at a decade high 6 percent. In response to the news, the Australian dollar jumped 0.8 percent to 0.9065 USD.
This data comes at a time where market volatility remains very low. Markets seem to be mostly waiting as tensions surrounding the crisis in Crimea rise without any real consequences until now. In another relatively quiet day for data, the most important release will be retail spending in the U.S. A 0.2 percent rise in February is expected which is a rebound from a decrease in January. Data is becoming more important in the U.S. as investor look for signs that the much talked about harsh winter there was the cause for some recent weak data and not problems with the overall recovery.
The euro broke through two and a half year highs early this morning and currently trades up against the U.S. dollar at around 1.3935 which are levels not seen since October 2011. Many investors will be interested to see if the shared European currency can hold on to the recent significant gains.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=36 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-14-2014, 01:36 PM
The fundamental news today is focused on Crimea as a controversial referendum is due to take place there on the weekend. Western leaders have been vocal this week in criticizing both the Russian President Vladimir Putin and his actions in setting up the vote. As a result, markets have tended towards traditional safehavens including removing funds from stock markets and the regular currency sources. As such, the Japanese yen is headed for its greatest five-day gain against the U.S. dollar in seven weeks. The yen rose another 0.2 percent to 101.69 per dollar overnight and is looking to make a 1.6 percent gain for the week. Against the euro, the Japanese currency rose 0.3 percent to 140.89 and has put on 1.7 percent since March 7.
The extra pressure has had a bad effect on share markets around the globe. European markets have shown three successive days of declines and the U.S. markets also fell over 1 percent yesterday. Furthermore, the MSCI Asia Pacific index has dropped 3.5 percent this week which is the biggest decline since May 2012. Ukraine has asked for military assistance while western governments look to place restrictions on Russia as early as Monday.
The euro has held on to its decline against the USD yesterday after good data out of America and a speech from the ECB President Mario Draghi. He made remarks giving guidance that the central bank will keep interest rates low and may even drop them further for the forseeable future. He noted that the recent gains in the European currency are “increasingly relevant in our assessment of price stability” and markets took this as a sign that the ECB will attempt to keep the Eurozone currency at more comfortable levels.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=47 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-20-2014, 12:42 PM
Global equity markets closed lower yesterday while yields on U.S. Treasuries climbed. The Dow Jones Index of shares tumbled 0.7 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index dropped 0.6 percent. On Wednesday after a two day policy meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the Federal Reserve will probably end its massive bond-buying program this coming fall, and could start to raise interest rates around six months later, by the middle of 2015. Yesterday the Fed left interest rates unchanged at a record low at 0.25 percent. Janet Yellen also said that they drop the 6.5 percent unemployment rate as a guideline in deciding when to increase rates. The Fed would instead consider a wide range of economic indicators when deciding the future path of overnight rates. It was also noted that the central bank could continue its embrace of easy money policies even after the Fed achieves its goals. The Fed also announced it will cut its monthly purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to $55 billion from $65 billion. Consequently the USD advanced versus all its major counterparts and increased the most since January versus the EUR. The EUR/USD dropped 0.7 percent to 1.3830, the first gain in four days. The USD/JPY even rose to 1.2 percent to 102.68, before declining to 102.35. The EUR/JPY strengthened 0.1 percent to141.54.
On Tuesday Canada’s central-bank Governor Stephen Poloz said that a rate cut might happen if the economy worsens. As a result the CAD weakened to lowest level in 4 1/2 years versus the USD on speculation the Fed will tighten monetary policy faster than the Bank of Canada. The USD/CAD climbed 0.9 percent to 1.1238.
After minutes of the Bank of England meeting said the strong GBP is damping inflation, the GBP rallied versus most major counterparts, except the USD. The GBP/USD declined to 1.6535.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=75 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-24-2014, 01:08 PM
Tonight, the PMI from HSBC Holdings Plc was released and showed that China’s manufactors weakened this month for the fifth month in a row. The PMI decreased to 48.1 from 48.5 in February by disappointing economists’ expectation of an increase by 0.2 points to 48.7. All listings below 50 are signs for a contraction of the economy. The majority of strategists see themselves confirmed that the nation’s annual growth target of 7.5 percent might not be met and that the slump extended in the first quarter. China’s political leaders are currently facing a balancing act between the escalating credit expansion with the connected higher risk for loan losses and the necessarity to prevent a weakening of the nation’s economy with rising unemployment figures. But the final reading will be released on the 1st of April together with the National Bureau of Statistics’ own manufacturing report. In the recent months, the PMI’s advanced to a barometer of China’s business.
As a result, the South Pacific currencies dropped and the AUD lost against all of its most traded counterparts. Also the JPY declined against the EUR and the USD as speculations grew that the Bank of Japan will probably expand their monthly easing to minimize the affects of the planned tax increase, which will be valid next week. Therefore, the JPY tumbled 0.3 percent to 141.45 towards the EUR and shrank 0.2 percent to 102.49 versus its U.S. peer. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD remained nearly unchanged at 1.3801. In contrast, the AUD/USD slid 0.4 percent earlier and is currently at 0.9077.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=87 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-25-2014, 11:42 AM
Yesterday’s weak manufacturing data forced the Chinese central bank to heighten the currency fixing for the second day, which pushed the Chinese Yuan to the strongest level in 7 days. Furthermore, speculations grew that the government might announce additional measures to boost the cooling economy. Since the beginning of the year, the currency has lost 2.1 percent and the offshore Yuan climbed 0.14 to 6.1782 against the USD, referring to Bloomberg.
Besides the Chinese Yuan, also the EUR advanced versus nearly all of its most traded peers, before today releasing report of the business confidence in Germany, the biggest business in the Europe, which might be near a thirty months high. A gauge among Bloomberg median economists showed that the Ifo institute’s business climate index might be at 110.9 in March, after having reached 111.3 in February, the strongest since July 2011. The index is based on 7,000 executives and measures the sentiment in Germany. As a result, the EUR was able to kept its gains towards the U.S. currency. Also yesterday’s published figures suggest a strengthening in manufacturing and services, which accelerated close to the fastes pace in three years. Before ECB President Draghi’s speech this afternoon, the EUR/USD kept its level at 1.3834 after having added 0.3 percent yesterday, the greatest intraday gain since the 14th of March. The JPY lost to 141.52 from yesterday’s close at 141.49 against the EUR.
In addition, the South Pacific currencies advanced due to the positive signs from China, the most important export partner. Therefore the AUD climbed to an one year peak and the NZD appreciated for the third day in a row, while the currency volatility decreased to the lowest since 2012 by backing higher-yielding assets. The AUD rose 0.1 percent to 0.9138 USD from 0.9133 the previuos day by touching 0.9158, the best since the 10th of December, while also the NZD added 0.1 percent to 85.53 U.S. cents.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=97 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-26-2014, 11:27 AM
In contrast to the previous days, the 18th nation’s currency weakened against most of its 16 major currency counterparts due to the lower economic data from the European member states nurturing speculations that the recovery of the European business might cool down in the next quarter. As a result, the demand for the EUR dropped. Also estimates of stronger U.S. durable goods orders, which will be released today, are supporting signs for an accelerating growth of the U.S. economy. According to forecasts by Bloomberg News, the durable goods orders might spur up by 0.8 percent in February compared to January, when they declined 1 percent. A separate gauge among economists predict that tomorrow published gross domestic product will probably revised by 0.3 percent to 2.7 percent annualized rate from October through December from last month’s announced target of 2.4 percent by the government. The pressure on the EUR increased and forced the currency to a three week low versus the USD. The EUR/USD dropped 0.1 percent to 1.3813 from yesterday’s close due to the weaker than estimated IFO German business climate index, which was published yesterday. Economists had expected a fall to 110.9, but it tumbled to 110.7 instead. The JPY gained slightly versus the EUR and increased to 141.30 from 141.39, while the USD/JPY kept its level at 102.30 from the day before. Referring to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the EUR showed the best performance among the 10 tracked currencies and added 8.3 percent in the last year, while the JPY lost 8.5 percent and the USD remained nearly unchanged.
Besides the USD, also the AUD advanced caused by a statements of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhardt and Reserve Bank Governor Stevens that the nation’s business might improving on a faster pace in the second half of this year. In succession, the AUD climbed to a 12-week high. The AUD appreaciated 0.1 percent to 0.9174 USD by touching 0.984 USD, the best level since the 26th of November. The currency strengthened 1.5 percent since the 20th of March.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=98 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-27-2014, 02:45 PM
Yesterday, New Zealand’s Finance Minister Bill English expressed in an interview in Hong kong that the currenctly probably overvalued currency might be a challenge for the nation’s exporters. In comparison, the NZD has shown the best performance among all the major counterparts and has climbed 5 percent versus the USD since the beginning of this year. Therefore speculations increased that the Reserve Bank might raise the interest rate after their next meeting in April. After this month’s gathering on the 13th of March, the cash rate was already upgraded by 0.25 percent to 2.75 percent by Governor Wheeler, the first tighteneing measure in a developed nation this year. Furthermore, he expressed that there might be more room for additional lifts if it becomes necessary due to the faster rising inflation. According to the Reserve Bank, the target rate for the annual inflation is ceiled to 2 percent. Also the country’s economic data remained promising as a government report confirmed on the 20th of March that the GDP advanced 3.1 percent in the last three months in 2013 compared to a year earlier, establishing the second-straight quarter of exceling growth above 3 percent. In addition, the exports were able to increase by 17 percent in February from the year before leading to the highest trade surplus since April 2011. As a result, the NZD strentghtened to a level only 0.2 percent away from an 11-week high and was at 0.8624 by trading nearly 40 percent above its average since it was freely-floated in 1985.
Besides the NZD, also the JPY gained and appreciated to a seven day high against the USD due to growing concerns that the Western nations around President Obama might put further pressure on Russia, after their annexation of the Crimea. As a result, the USD/JPY dropped 0.2 percent to 101.86 aftr having touched 101.72, the weakest since the 19th of March. Meanwhile, the JPY is heading towards its biggest quarterly gain since June 2012 and will probably add 3.4 percent. The JPY strengthened 0.1 percent and traded at 140.47, while the EUR dropped to 1.3787 USD.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=114 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-28-2014, 11:29 AM
Paying tribute to the recent disappointing economic data from China, speculations grew that the Chinese government might take further efforts to fight the cooling of their business growth. As a result, the demand for the Asian currencies increased this week. According to a statement of Premier Li Keqiang on the official government’s website, he demanded that the nation should “roll out effective policies in a targeted way” without ignoring the existing risk of steadily expansion. Before the release of next week’s manufacturing data, a median forecast among Bloomberg economists predict a decline in March to the weakest since June. Therefore the probability rises that a further easing might follow in the second quarter. As a result, also the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index advanced 0.5 percent this week after having lost 1 percent in the last 14 days. The index is representing the performance of the 10 most-traded currencies. The CNH added 0.2 percent in the last five days by dropping this year’s decline to 2.5 percent.
Also the South Pacific currencies benefited from the new optimism for a strengthening of the Chinese economy and are heading towards a further weekly gain. The AUD continued its upward trend for the sixth day in arrow, while the NZD rallied to the strongest level in more than 30 months. Australia’s currency fetched 0.3 percent to 92.88 U.S.cents continuing the longest period of consecutive wins since the week ending on the 18th of October. Meanwhile, the NZD strengthened 0.2 percent to 0.8692 against the USD by briefly reaching 0.8697, the best since August 2011.
In contrast, the demand for the EUR depreciated and forced the 18 nation’s currency down close to a three-week low, before figures might confirmed that inflation in the euro zone slowed again. The EUR kept its yesterday’s level and was at 1.3744 USD, after having touched 1.3729 USD, the lowest since the 6th of March. It is set to establish a monthly contraction of 0.4 percent versus the USD and heading towards a 0.4 percent weekly loss against the JPY when it dropped to 140.38 JPY.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=115 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
03-31-2014, 02:16 PM
The euro is trading near one-month lows before a range a data is released in Europe today. Retail sales data from Germany and GDP data from France are the precursors to the most important CPI figures which are due out mid-morning European time. The figure is expected to show further slowing in inflation across Europe with an expected rise of just 0.6 percent in March. This is even lower than the 0.7 percent figure seen in February and far below the ECB’s target of up tp 2 percent. Such a figure will likely further fuel speculation that the European Central Bank will enact some form of monetary stimulus at their policy meeting later this week.
The Australian dollar has had a strong month in March rising against all G10 peers after comments from the Reserve Bank hinted that further lowering of the interest rate is unlikely in the near future. The monthly rate meeting will be overnight where no change is expected. Investors will most likely be more keenly watching out for the statement which follows and any comments in there which signals the central bank’s future forecasts. The currency currently buys around 92.55 U.S. cents after reaching a yearly high of 92.95 last week. It has risen risen 3.8 percent against the U.S. dollar in the first quarter of this year.
The US dollar continued its gains ahead of a speech by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at a conference in Chicago later today. The next policy decision meeting is not until the end of April but investors will nevertheless be looking for any indications of when interest rates are likely to be increased. There is a range of U.S. data due out this week culminating in the monthly job figures which will be published this Friday. The winter weather is now well behind the world’s largest economy so early estimates are for looking for around 200,000 jobs to have been added in February. The data this week will likely pave the way for the next few weeks of market activity with markets treating data releases up until now fairly lightly.
In other market news, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares rose 0.6 percent overnight which signals a possibly higher open for the European markets this morning.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=128 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-03-2014, 01:56 PM
The euro was weaker against most major peers as the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting and announcement is scheduled for today. Although the Bank is not expected to change the headline interest rate figure, there may be other easing measures introduced which help to combat falling inflation in the Eurozone. The International Monetary Fund Director Christine Lagarde made comments yesterday that further measures are needed to help boost the European
economies. Demand and output are danger if the inflation problems are not soon combatted. In a speech on March 13, the ECB President Mario Draghi also noted that the exchange rate is an important part of their decision making process along with the price stability targets. The euro currently trades at around $1.3739 after losing aroun 0.2% yesterday and at 143.03 yen.
U.S. jobs data revealed yesterday that companies increased payrols by 191,000 last month according to the ADP research institute. This has fueled speculation that the Labor Department will announce that about 200,000 jobs were added in the non-farm payrolls data due out on Friday. Other data due out today is the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector data with a further rise to 53.5 expected. As a result, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is approaching its highest close since March 20.
The Australian dollar is under pressure after retail sales data from the South-Pacific nation came out weaker than expected overnight. The rise of 0.2% in February was well below the 1.2% gain in the previous month. The Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens also made a speech where he noted that the Australian dollar remains at historically quite high levels and hinted that this will be a strong motivation for future policy. The dollar currently trades around 92.20 U.S. cents.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=174 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-04-2014, 11:52 AM
The U.S. dollar has reached its highest level against the Japanese yen in ten weeks overnight before the all important nonfarm payrolls report due out this afternoon European time. The currency of the world’s largest economy is currently heading for a the third straight weekly gain against both the yen and the euro as speculation of an increase in interest rates is gaining momentum. Any increase would be the first time that the Federal Reserve has increased rates since 2006. The greenback is headed for a 1.1 percent gain against the yen and a 0.3 percent rise against the euro this week. Markets will most likely remain subdued this morning in anticipation of the payrolls report which is expected to show a further fall in the unemployment rate. There is also an expectation that around 200,000 jobe were added last month and any figure above that will surely fuel further speculation that interest rates could be raised earlier rather than later.
Putting pressure on the euro yesterday was also comments made by the ECB’s President Mario Draghi in a press conference following the central bank’s interest rate announcement. As the market expected, no adjustment to the interest rate was made but the Draghi’s comments referred to possible further extraordinary measures if the low inflation in Europe does not start to pick up soon. He has already noted that growth will be greatly affected in the eurozone if the current environment continues long-term.
In Asian markets, the Bank of Japan policy makers will be meeting early next week for two days to discuss their monetary policy. While analysts are expecting no change at this meeting, nearly half of the economists in a Bloomberg survey are expecting an increase in stimulus in July. This all comes after the consumption tax was increased to 8 percent on April 1.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=178 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-10-2014, 11:30 AM
Surprisingly, Chinese export and import data weakened in March and the nation’s growth is set to cool down to the slowest pace since the global financial crisis. Tonight, the customs administration in Beijing announced that shipments dropped 6.6 percent in March compared to the previous year. But Bloomberg economists have forecasted a rise by 4.8 percent. Simoultaneously, the imports tumbled 11.3 percent and generated a trade surplus of 7.71 billion USD. In contrast a gauge by Bloomberg News estimated an increment of 3.9 percent in imports and a trade surplus of 1.8 billion USD. Therefore speculations grew that the central bankers and the government will implement further steps to stabilize the economy. The investor’s concerns were also nourished by the fact that also the export figures for February were weak and declined 18.1 percent compared to a year earlier. In this context, also central bank Governor Xiaochuan has reassured the intention of the government to make market-drive changes during his visit in Shanghai, before today’s speech of Premier Li Keqiang. Last week, Li mentioned some potential easing measures to boost the domestic economy like tax reliefs or railway spending after economists have announced predictions that the Chinese gross domestic product might climb 7.3 percent in the first three months from a year earlier, the lowest since 2009. The government set its target at an annual growth of 7.5 percent, which is similar to the forecast by the International Monetary Fund.
Yesterday, FOMC minutes disappointed the strategists’ expectation for higher interest rates and in succession the USD declined to a five-months low against most of its counterparts. Also the EUR advanced to 1.3849 USD by touching 1.3871, a two-week high, while the AUD/USD benefited from unexpected positive labor market data, which showed that employers added 18,100 jobs, more than seven times of the predicted jobs and the unemployment rate decreased to 5.8 percent, the first drop in six months. The AUD gained 0.3 percent to 0.9417 versus the USD by briefly reaching 0.9440, the best since the 20th of November.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=242 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-11-2014, 11:08 AM
Paying tribute to the dampened hopes for rising U.S.interest rates, the USD is heading towards its biggest weekly drop against nearly all of its most traded counterparts since August 2013. As aresult, the EUR/USD rallied 0.1 percent to 1.3893 targeting a five-day surplus of 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, the JPY declined 0.1 percent to 101.59 against USD as well as versus the 18 nation’s currency to 141.14. Today, the U.S. economy is scheduled to release their producer prices, which might have climbed 1.1 percent in the previous month from a year earlier, referring to a median forecast among Bloomberg economists. Already in February, the producer prices showed an advance of 0.9 percent, which was the lowest since November 2010. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve reduced their monthly easing bond purchasing budget by 10 billion USD to 55 billion USD as scheduled. Fed Chair Yellen announced also that the central bank might start to raise the interest rates in about six months after finishing the current asset-buying program. “ Several participants noted that the increase in the median projection overstated the shift in the projections, “ according to the released minutes by the Federal Open Market Committee on the 9th of April. But the remaining low interest rates were rated as signs for the instability of the U.S. business recovery and in succession, the capital markets showed strong price retreats. Especially, the U.S. indices shrank. The Dow-Jones Index lost 1.62 percent, the S&P-500 tumbled 2.09 percent and the Nasdaq depreciated 3.13 percent.
Besides the USD, also the South Pacific currendies declined due to weakening Asian shares, which lowered the investor’s appetite for higher-yielding assets. The AUD fell 0.3 percent to 0.9384 USD reducing the weekly gain to 1 percent. Simoultaneously, the NZD declined 0.5 percent versus the USD and traded at 0.8639, targeting a weekly increase of 0.5 percent.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=262 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-15-2014, 11:49 AM
The dollar has held on to its advance today after a relatively quite day in trading overnight. A stronger retail sales number yesterday helped the dollar and U.S. stock markets to make strong gains yesterday. The retail sales number was the highest since September 2012 as the sentiment continues to improve following the particularly harsh winter. General growth conditions are improving and it is adding to speculation that interest rates may be raised earlier rather than later.
The opening gap yesterday helped the dollar to gain 0.5 percent against the euro yesterday and currently trades flat in the Asian session at around $1.3815 per euro. It is similarly unchanged against the yen but held on to a 0.2 percent gain from yesterday and trades around 101.85. Further inflation data is expected out of the U.S. this afternoon which will provide even more clarity to possible policy decisions from the FOMC. U.S. data also includes manufacturing figures which is also expected to increase. In a day full of data releases, this morning also has inflation data out of the U.K. and monthly ZEW economic sentiment data from Germany. The ZEW data is an important guage of the current environment in the eurozone’s largest economy as it represents investor and analyst expectations for activity in the next six months. A further fall is expected after a seven-month low in March.
The Australian dollar has dropped off a five-month high after minutes from the RBA’s monthly policy meeting were released overnight. The minutes noted that rates are likely to remain at record lows for the forseeable future as growth slowly picks up. The dollar is up over 5.4% against the USD this year but managed to give back 0.3% of that overnight and currently trades at around 93.96 U.S. cents.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=319 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-16-2014, 12:47 PM
The biggest market related news overnight was the release of Chinese GDP figures. The National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing reported that the economy grew 7.4 percent in the first quarter of this year reported on a yearly basis. This figure was slightly above economists estimates which averaged at 7.3 percent and, perhaps more importantly, managed to avoid fears that growth may slip into 6 percent region. While the reported figure was a 0.3 percent decline from the previous quarter, it helped the Australian dollar to cap falls against the U.S. dollar. The South Pacific nation’s economy is highly dependent on China and its currency is often seen as a guage of how economic data in China is interpreted. The currency traded about 0.1 percent lower but it had dropped as much as 0.3 percent. The dollar currently trades at around 93.60 U.S. cents after tumbling 0.7 percent yesterday.
European sentiment is again being dominated by the developments in Eastern Ukraine. The interim government launched an offensive against pro-Russian militants yesterday after claiming that Russian special forces troops had been identified as part of the group. The EU and the U.S. are now considering further sanctions against Russia. The tensions have flowed on to European markets with the euro currently down about 0.5 percent against the U.S. dollar for the week. The
18-nation currency is currently trading at around $1.3816 per euro and 141.17 yen per euro.
As a result of the tensions, the U.S. dollar seems to be gaining support as a safehaven currency. Demand for bonds has also increased which is a further indication that markets are getting spooked. U.S. data was mixed yesterday with stronger inflation data but weaker housing market figures. This lead to an extraordinary day on the U.S. stock markets where the NASDAQ saw the largest one-day reversal for over five years. The U.S. dollar which rose against almost all of its 16 major counterparts yesterday and in a light day for data, markets will be watching a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Yellen for any further dovish comments.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=320 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-22-2014, 10:12 AM
The USD has accomplished the longest period of consequetive daily wins against the yen since October 2012 and gained the 7th day in a row. Today, the release of U.S economic data is expected to show a further strengthening, which might increase the demand for the USD. Referring to estimates among economists, the Richmond Fed’s factory index might appreciate to 2 in April from -7 in March. All readings above zero are signs for a strengthening of the economy. Also the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index was close to a two week peak after the leading indcators climbed the most in four weeks. The index of leading indicators were released by the Conference Board and it fetched 0.8 percent in March, the highest since November. A gauge by Bloomberg News had predicted a surplus of 0.7 percent. The Index shows the performance of the U.S. currency versus its 10 most traded currencies and it rose to 1,011.46 after having touched 1,011.50 before, the best since the 7th of April. As a result, the USD/JPY kept its yesterday’s level and was at 102.65 JPY following a 1.1 percent rise in the last seven trading days. Meanwhile, the USD remained nearly unchanged versus the 18 nation’s currency and traded at 1.3793 compared to 1.3794 the day before. Besides the USD, the EUR also strengthened against the JPY rallying to 141.60 from 141.55 etablishing a 0.6 percent increase in the past five days.
In contrast, another gauge among Bloomberg analysts is estimating that the European Commission probably will announce that the consumer confidence in the euro area remained at - 9.3 this month compared to the previous month, the best since November 2007.
Since the beginning of this year, the AUD grew 4.9 percent to 0.9349 due to stronger than expected rising home prices and a weaker unemployment rate.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=341 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-23-2014, 05:29 PM
Tonight, a report of the Chinese manufacturing showed that all previous efforts of the government to halter the further cooling of the economic growth remained restrained. Also the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index validated this development and was at 48.3 this month, a rate conforming to the estimates by Bloomberg economists and following a March rating of 48, which is the fourth consequtive months of contraction with readings below 50. In succession, the Chinese Offshore Yuan has dropped to the weakest level since 2012 due to a separate poll which confirmed that the economic growths was at the slowest pace in 18 months. The majority of analysts predict that an ongoing shrinkage in manufacturing might increase the pressure on Premier Li Keqiang to implement further measures to spur the nation’s business. Yesterday, he announced that first steps to support additional growths through tax reliefs, railway spending and required-reserves cuts for rural banks. But experts have already doubted the impact of the “mini stimulus” package on the stricken economy. Furthermore, last month’s gauge among Bloomberg analysts predicted an expansion of 7.4 percent in 2014, which would be the weakest since 1990.
The nation's g’owths was at 7.7 percent in the last two years. Currently, China is struggling to find a balance between economic growth by simoultaneously fighting against shadow banking, eliminating overcapacity and reducing pollution. In contrast to the manufacturing, the factory output climbed 8.8 percent in March compared to a year earlier.
Suffering from the weak data from its Chinese trading partner and disappointing consumer prices, which remained below economists expectations, the AUD declined against all of its most traded
currency peers to the worst in two weeks. As a result, the AUD dropped 0.6 percent to 0.9306 USD by briefly reaching 0.9296, the lowest since the 8th of April. The AUD/JPY tumbled 0.7 percent and was at 95.45.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=342 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-24-2014, 12:38 PM
Speculations grew that tomorrow relasing data will confirm that the inflation increased the most in more than 20 years in Japan, which declined the probability that the Bank of Japan will announce additional easing measures. In reference to a statement of the senior currency strategist at Nomura International Plc in London, who expressed, “Both the BOJ and the market are paying close attention to the Tokyo CPI data, the first reading after the sales tax increase. Much higher numbers may raise expectations the BOJ will revise its inflation forecast and push back the timing of additional stimulus. The CPI data could be a trigger for yen strength.” The increase in prices has been accelerating to the fastest since 1992 as it grew 2.8 percent in April compared to a year earlier. Previously the Japanese government enhanced the consumption tax by 3 percent to 8 percent from 5 percent on the 1st of April, the first rise since 1997. As a result, the demand for the JPY boosted and the currency was able to finish its nine day strike of daily declines against the USD. The JPY rallied 0.1 percent to 102.42 towards the USD from yesterday’s close. Also the 18 nation’s currency lost 0.1 percent against the JPY and was at 141.6 JPY.
Besides the JPY, also the EUR advanced versus the USD as a separate report estimated that today publishing German business conditions might have rallie to the best level in two years. Furthermore, the prospects for the latest figures of the U.S. economy like the durable goods orders remained rather weak in March. The EUR/USD traded at 1.3822 from 1.3817 following a 0.2 percent push in the last two days.
In contrast to the USD, the NZD benefited from the positive forecasts of the strengthening business by the Reserve Bank, which increased its growth outlook and raised the key benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the second time in two months. Therefore the NZD gained against all of its most traded currency peers. The NZD appreciated 0.5 percent to 0.8626 versus the USD and climbed 0.3 percent against the JPY to 88.34.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=354 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-29-2014, 11:31 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jow index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index also rose 0.3 percent. Yesterday data showed that retail sales in Japan increased at the fastest past in 17 years in March as consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of the sales tax hike in April. Sales climbed 11% during the month, from a year ago which is the most since March 1997. Japan’s public debt is the around 230% of its gross domestic product, which is the highest in the industrialised world. Japan has been fighting against deflation or falling prices in the past two decades and they are trying to achieve 2 percent inflation by rising sales tax. The USD/JPY rose for the first time in five days to 102.47 and the EUR bought 141.96 JPY.
Economists estimated that tomorrow data might show gross domestic product in U.K. advanced at the fastest pace since 2010 in the first quarter in this year. It might rose 0.9 percent, up from 0.7 percent in the final three months of 2013. The Confederation of British Industry said its composite survey indicator showed growth gathered pace in April and expectations for the next three months are the strongest since the data began in 2003. As a result the GBP appreciated to a four-year high versus the USD to 1.6815. The EUR/GBP was at 0.8239.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program is not imminent and is relatively unlikely for now. The EUR hit a two-week high versus the USD based also on expectations that euro zone inflation will show an increase this week up to 0.8 percent. The EUR/USD traded at 1.3850. Beyond that ECB policymaker Christian Noyer said yesterday the euro’s strength was a powerful deflationary factor and low inflation is likely to persist.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=364 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
04-30-2014, 11:40 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jow index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index also rose 0.5 percent. Yesterday data showed April inflation in Germany was weaker than estimated at 1.1 percent, up from 0.9 percent in March. Low inflation might raise expectations the ECB will lower rates or take other steps that might hurt the EUR. Beyond that another report showed that economic confidence in the euro zone dropped, while remaining near the highest level since 2011. Today economists forecasted that data will show Euro zone inflation is picking up to 0.8 percent in April which would still be well below the ECB’s medium-term target of just 2 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi has signaled he will use unprecedented measures from negative interest rates to quantitative easing if needed to avert the risk of deflation in the euro zone. Today the Federal Open Market Committee is going to announce interest rates. The market estimated that they will leave interest rate unchanged at a record low at 0.25 percent. Furthermore it is estimated that the Federal Reserve will slow monthly asset purchases by $10 billion. In addition today data might show that US GDP dropped to 1.2 percent in the first quarter. After a five day gain the EUR decreased versus the USD and was 1.3805. The USD increased 0.2 percent versus the JPY to 102.61. The EUR/JPY declined to 141.71.
Investors added to bets on faster U.K. economic growth, therefore the pound strengthened for a fourth day versus the USD. Yesterday data showed that GDP gained 0.8 percent in the first quarter, up from 0.7 percent in the final three months of 2013. Economists estimated a growth of 0.9 percent. Nevertheless Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the recovery is starting to broaden out. The GBP/USD traded at 1.6822. The EUR/GBP weakened 0.5 percent to 0.8209.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=383 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-01-2014, 11:28 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jow index of shares climbed 0.3 percent and closed at its first record high of 2014. The Standard & Poor’s index also rose 0.3 percent. Today due to a holiday the European stock market is closed, only the US and the UK stock exchange is open. Yesterday data showed that the euro region’s annualized consumer-price inflation rate climbed to 0.7 percent this month from 0.5 percent in the past month. An acceleration to 0.8 percent has been estimated by the market. In addition Europe’s larges economy Germany announced an unemployment rate of 6.7 percent for April. ECB policymaker Noyer added further fuel to the speculation by saying he was personally in favor of one or two further measures, for example injecting more liquidity. The ECB next meets on Thursday May 8, but few in the market predict any surprise policy action then.
Yesterday the Federal Reserve announced that it would cut its monthly bond buying program to $45 billion from $55 billion, comprising $20 billion in Treasuries purchases and $25 billion in mortgage-backed debt. Furthermore policy makers left yesterday the main rate at zero to 0.25 percent. Yesterday data also showed that U.S. gross domestic product increased at a 0.1 percent annualized rate from January through March, compared with a 2.6 percent advance in the prior quarter. Ecomists had estimated a rose of 1.2 percent but the severe winter weather really had an impact on U.S. businesses. As a result the USD declined against the EUR as Spain’s Minister of Economy said that GDP would grow 1.2 percent this year, 1.8 percent in 2015 and 2.3 percent in 2016. The EUR/USD strengthened 0.4 percent to 1.3867 and the USD/JPY dropped to 102.25. The EUR/JPY traded at 141.80. The GBP/USD rose to a four-year high after data showed U.K. consumer confidence increased. The GBP/USD was at 1.6885, before dropping back to 1.6875. The EUR/GBP was at 0.8216.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=394 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-02-2014, 12:01 PM
Yesterday the Dow Jow index of shares dropped 0.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index closed unchanged. Data yesterday showed that U.S. manufacturing picked up in April after consumer spending surged the prior month. This might be a sign that the U.S. economy will lift off in the second quarter. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to 54.9, the strongest so far in 2014, from 53.7 in March. Economists expected a decrease to 54.3. Household purchases, which make up about 70 percent of the economy, rose in March by the most since August 2009. It rose 0.9 percent after a 0.5 percent gain in February, that was larger than expected. The data bear out the view of Federa Reserve policy makers who yesterday estimated that the economy will gain momentum.
Today the market forecasted that data will show U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 215,000 in April, up from a 192,000 gain in March. This would the best performance since November. U.S. unemployment rate will also be released today and ecomists estimated a drop to 6.6 percent from 6.7 percent. Beyond that data might also show today that unemployment rate in the euro zone remained unchanged at 11.9 percent. The EUR/USD strengthened yesterday to 1.3888 before it tumbled again to 1.3868. The USD/JPY was at 102.30 and the EUR/JPY was at 141.90.
Yesterday Chinese data also showed that China’s manufacturing advanced less than previously estimated. The Manufacturing Index climbed to 50.4 coming from 50.3. As a result the AUD weakened 0.1 percent versus the USD to 0.9272 after two days of gains. Yesterday data also showed that U.K. purchasing managers index appreciated more than estimated to 57.3 in April, from 55.8 the previous month. Therefore the GBP/USD strengthened for a sixth day to 1.6889.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=401 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-06-2014, 10:28 AM
The Australian dollar remained weak overnight after a lower than expected trade surplus and the Reserve Bank’s policy meeting early this morning. The Reserve Bank held interest rates at a record low of 2.5% which was expected by the market. The Aussie has been the worse performer in the past month of all G10 currencies as the Reserve Bank remains dovish on its growth outlook and interest rates in the South-Pacific nation. Futures markets show that the first interest rate hike is not expected until October at the earliest. The trade balance data saw the smallest surplus in three months at A$731 million in March as falling commodity prices have been putting pressure on exports. Commodities fell a further 0.6 percent yesterday following the poor Chinese manufacturing data. The Australian dollar currently trades around 92.75 U.S. cents.
The yen managed to hold on to yesterday’s gains which followed hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan governor. There are also indications that the rising tensions in Ukraine have further reduced the risk appetite of investors. As fighting breaks out in many cities in the east, money has been switching to safe-haven assets including bonds, which have seen extended demand since the end of April. The yen currently trades around 102.12 per dollar and 141.69 per euro.
Deutsche Bank’s volatility index, which looks the implied volatility in the market using three-month options for nine-major currency pairs, is currently sitting around 6.02 percent. This is only just above the low of 5.84 percent seen on May 1, which was itself the lowest value seen since July 2007. The lower volatility reflects how quiet the market currently trades given a range of holidays around the world in the past week and no substantial directional news. Low volatility is also an indication for slowly recovering markets. The Japanese, South Korean and Hong Kong markets were all closed overnight.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=419 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-08-2014, 10:23 AM
The biggest news overnight was a strong rise in the Australian doller after the latest job report from the South Pacific nation and some better than expected data from China. Australia added 14,000 jobs in April which was better than the 8,800 expected additions and this helped the unemployment rate to stay unchanged. Importantly, this addition was due to an increase in fulltime jobs which is usually a good sign for the economic recovery. Furthermore, the trade balance came in at a surplus of $18.45B for April which was well above estimates of $13.90B. This was, in part, due to a 0.9 percent increase in overseas shipments compared to the expected 3 percent drop. This helped the dollar to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart up 0.5 percent to about 93.70 U.S. cents.
Today sees the all-important interest rate announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Expectations of new easing measures from the ECB helped support the 18-nation currency to near seven-week highs while trade overnight was largely subdued.
Reports by Blooomberg News note that investors are becoming impatient with the rhetoric from the ECB’s President Mario Draghi as there remains a distinct amount of inaction. The central bank is again expected to make no changes to its monetary policy today which could push the currency even further higher. As usual, the markets will be keenly awaiting comments from the ECB president for any indications of moves. The euro currently trades around 1.3916 per dollar. No changes are also expected from the BoE today despite the increasing amount of positive news coming out of the U.K. The pound currently trades unchanged overnight at around 1.6952 per dollar.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=428 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-09-2014, 10:48 AM
The euro is set for its first weekly drop in over three weeks after dovish comments from the ECB President Mario Draghi yesterday. Although the ECB did not make any change to policy yesterday, markets took the comments by Draghi that the Governing Council was ‘comfortable’ acting in June as almost a sure sign that they would make introduce some more monetary easing at the next meeting. On the back of the meeting, the euro dropped against all but one of its 16 major traded peers as the ECB looks to use stimulus to help boost inflation in the Eurozone. The euro has gained the most of the major currencies so far this year and has appreciated over 5 percent in the last 12 months on Bloomberg’s Correlated-Weighted Index. The euro currently trades at around $1.3838 after touching $1.3993 yesterday just before the press conference. The currency is set for a 0.2 percent loss for the week against the dollar. Against the yen, the eur was little changed overnight and currently trades at 140.72 which represents a 0.7 percent drop for the week.
As for the Asian-Pacific currencies, the Australian and New Zealand dollars both slid back overnight as inflation data was released in China. The Reserve Bank of Australia also released its quaterla monetary statement overnight noting that interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. Despite a good outlook for growth in Australia, the central bank remains cautious about the downside dangers including a further weakening in China. Nevertheless, the Australian dollar has gained against the U.S. dollar this week in part due to strong employment data released during the week. It is currently up about 0.9 percent and trades at around 93.58 U.S. cents. The New Zealand dollar is headed for a weekly decline of about 0.4 percent and trades at around 86.40 U.S. cents.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=445 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-13-2014, 12:53 PM
Today, we are awaiting the release of the retails sales of the U.S. business, which might have climbed 0.4 percent in April for a third month in a row. In March, it has already added 1.2 percent, the highest monthly advance since Augus 2012. This is curbing speculations that the recovery of the nation’s eonomy is stable enough for further reduction of the monthly easing measures by approaching the first interst-rate raise since 2006. As a result, the USD as able to enforce against most of its major traded counterparts. Especially, versus the EUR it advanced to a monthly high and also the JPY dropped to the lowest within one week, after the demand for Asian stocks appreciated. A senior strategists of Nomura International Plc in London summarized “Should U.S. retail sales data come in strong and cause yields to rise, that would propel dollar gains against the yen. Dollar strength is in the process of being confirmed.” Therefore the USD/JPY climbed 0.1 percent to 102.20 by briefly reaching 102.24, the best since the 5th of May. Although the EUR was able to keep yesterday’s level and traded at 1.3760 USD after having tumbled down to 1.3745 on the 9th of May, the weakest since the 8th of April. This was a succession of the announcements by ECB president Draghi to implement further easing measures next months. Since then, the EUR/USD has shown a four-day losing streak, the longest since January. The next gathering is scheduled for the 5th of June. But the shrinking JPY lost against the EUR and was 0.1 percent lower than yesterday by trading at 140.64.
Besides the JPY, also the AUD declined against its major peers, after econmists were surprised by declining home loans in March. In addition, the annual budget will be released today, which is the first after the government elections in September. Referring to gauge of Bloomberg News, the budget will present a 30 billion AUD deficit for the fiscal year 2014.15 following a 46 billion AUD shortfall this year. The AUD lost 0.1 percent to 0.9355 USD after touching 0.9394 on the 8th of May, a four week peak.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=458 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-16-2014, 12:28 PM
Yesterday released data of the European economy disappointed the expectations of the economists as the business only grew 0.2 percent in the last three months compared to a forcast of 0.4 percent. Therefore the Executive Board member Mersch expressed in a statement that the ECB is planning to take further actions to rise the low inflation as well as the high unemployment. Beside the ECB , also Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen expressed yesterday that the U.S. business has still room for further recovery and stability until it reached full health again. The statement was caused by the weak industrial production and the accelerating inflation. The current situation was explained by a strategist at Shinyoung Securities Co. located in Seoul as follows: “ Investors seem to be thinking increased monetary accommodation by Europe can make up fr stimulus reduction from the U.S..” Nevetheless, the uncertainity of the investors increased and stimulated the demand for more secure assets and currencies due to the political conflict in the Ukraine and mixed figures form the other European nations. As a result, the JPY benefited and is now targeting the first weekly advance in thre months. The JPY kept yesterday’s close and was at 101.57 versus the USD by touching 101.32, the best since the 19th of March. Also the EUR remained nearly unchanged against the JPY and traded at 139.35 from 139.26 the day before, when the JPY rose to 138.98, the strongest since the 27th of February. The EUR/USD climbed to 1.3719 from 1.3710 after having dropped to 1.3648, the weakest since the 27th of February. In the last 5 days, the JPY has appreciated 0.3 percent, while the EUR is set to establish a weekly decline of 0.6 percent versus the JPY and a 0.3 percent decrease towards the USD.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=490 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-21-2014, 11:55 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares tumbled 0.8 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index even decreased 0.6 percent. The JPY was able to gain against all of its 16 major peers as the Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting and economists estimated that they will maintain monetary stimulus. The JPY rose versus the USD for a fifth straight day and reached almost its strongest level in more than three months as Treasury yields declined on reduced risk appetite, damping demand for U.S. assets. Charles Plosser, president of the Fed Bank of Philadelphia, said the strongest U.S. economy in years, buoyed by a solid housing market, may push the jobless rate below 6 percent by year-end. Beyond that Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley said the pace of eventual interest-rate increases will be probably slow. The EUR dropped to a two-week low versus the JPY on speculation officials will ease monetary policy next month. The USD/JPY weakened 0.2 percent to 101.29 and the EUR/JPY declined 0.2 percent to 138.83.
A report yesterday showed that consumer-price inflation in U.K. rose for the first time in 10 months in April. Consumer prices climbed an annual 1.8 percent in April, compared with 1.6 percent in March. Economists estimated a rose of 1.7 percent. As a result the GBP strengthened against the EUR and reached a 16-month high. The market speculated that the Bank of England will take steps to cool Britain’s housing market. The GBP/USD increased for a fourth day to 1.6839 and the EUR/GBP weakened 0.3 percent to 0.8133. Today U.K retail sales will be released and the market also expects an increase. Australia’s currency decreased to a two-week low versus the USD and traded at 0.9231 before a release of the consumer confidence report.The NZD/USD was close to the lowest level this month and was at 0.8562.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=513 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-22-2014, 11:11 AM
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index of shares rose 1 percent, which is the biggest daily increase since mid-April. The Standard & Poor’s Index strengthened 0.8 percent. On Wednesday the FOMC minutes were...

PCMNewsdesk
05-28-2014, 11:31 AM
With trading in foreign exchange markets fairly light this week due to the shortened holiday week in the U.S. and U.K. most of the attention seems to be on the next ECB meeting which is due to take place next week. Speculation has been building for some time that the central bank will cut interest rates next week in an attempt to boost inflation in the Eurozone and ultimately support growth. A Bloomberg survey of economists showed that nearly two-thirds of the experts are now
predicting a drop in the benchmark interest rate. The currency is set for a 1.5 percent decline this month and even hit three-month lowes yesterday. The 18-nation currency currently trades around 1.3634 which is little changed in the last 24 hours.
The US dollar has seen almost completely opposite reactions as markets begin to price in further reductions in stimulus from the Federal Reserve. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is currently in positive territory for the month for the first time since January with a total gain around 0.3 percent in May. Economic data remains mixed but the general sentiment seems strong with the S&P 500 closing at all-time highs at the end of trade yesterday. Weekly jobs data is due out today which will follow the unemployment figures from Germany later this morning.
The New Zealand dollar also took a hit overnight after the release of business confidence data which showed a sharp decline in the company expectations of the economy. The result has put a dampener on the pressure for the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates in the short-term. The currency fell 0.3 percent against the USD overnight to 85.41 U.S. cents which is the biggest decline in over a week.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=538 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-29-2014, 10:11 AM
The euro is currently set for its greatest monthly decline in over a year with all eyes on the ECB meeting next week. Various officials who are linked to the decision making process have all hinted at their willingness to introduce both conventional and unconventional monetary easing policies. The market already seems to have priced in an interest rate drop at next week’s meeting which could mean that extraordinary measures are needed for any further falls in the 18-nation currency. Following such a sharp and sustained fall it does seem unlikely that the currency can go much further without some very unexpected news. The euro currently trades just above the $1.3600 level but did fall as low as $1.3588 yesterday evening.
The Australian dollar rallied overnight after good economic data was released. Capital expenditure estimations for 2014/15 were well higher than what economists had predicted. Furthermore, new home sales data also showed a decent rise in a sector which has been under a lot of pressure in recent years. The good sentiment from these numbers came on the back of a harsh budget released by the new Government last month perhaps adding to the unexpectedly good numbers. Analysts also noted that the non-mining sector was the biggest upward surprise. The dollar currently trades around 92.73 U.S. cents with further rises possible as Europe and the Americas wake up to the news.
Please keep in mind that it is a public holiday in a number of European countries today including Germany, France and Switzerland. Although most Eurex products are still open for trade, the European market open times could be quiet as traders in the region take an extra-long weekend!


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=539 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
05-30-2014, 09:57 AM
The yen strengthened overnight after the release of inflation data showed that price growth is now at its highest level in over 20 years. Consumer prices in Japan have increased 3.2 percent in the past 12 months which was above the estimates made by economists. While much of the increase has been attributed to an increase in the sales tax from 5 to 8 percent which was implemented on April 1, speculation is now increasing that the Bank of Japan will refrain from any further stimulus in their June meeting. Analysts also noted that Treasury yields in the U.S., which are at their lowest levels in nearly a year, helped this move along as investors moved away from the greenback. The yen rose 0.2 percent overnight and has appreciated 0.7 percent in May to currently trade around 101.59 yen per dollar.
The Australian dollar rebounded to a one-week high after good economic data helped support the currency yesterday. The move is expected to hold with Chinese manufacturing data to be released this weekend. Economists are expecting figures to show that the sector expanded last month which will be good support after a turbulent time recently. Concerns have been growing that the giant Asian economy was heading for a sharp fall so good manufacturing data will help alleviate these. The dependence of the Australian economy on Chinese manufacturing and the generally better access for investors means that the Australian dollar has been a good proxy for world sentiment on China.
The U.S. dollar index remained little changed as investors wait to hear more comments from Federal Reserve members on their next moves. GDP data released yesterday showed the first contraction since 2011 but the majority of economists still see a rise in rates later in the year.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=550 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-02-2014, 12:40 PM
The EUR was 0.3 percent from its lowest level in three months before data tomorrow predicted to cement the mix of slow inflation and near record unemployment that may force the central bank to act. The report will probably show that euro-area inflation slowed to 0.6 percent in April. That would leave it under 1 percent for an eight month, well short of the ECB´s aim of keeping it just below 2 percent. Unemployment data probably show jobless rate stayed at 11.8 percent in April, close to the record 12 percent reached last year. The EUR extended a drop in May against the USD, its biggest in four months, with analysts forecasting the European Central Bank will become the first among its major peers to take interest rates into negative territory on its meeting on June 5. ECB President Mario Draghi and his fellow policy makers have signaled all options, from negative rates to conditional liquidity for banks, are up for discussion this week. Economists expect that the bank will cut its deposit rate to minus 0.1 percent from 0 at present. The USD climbed versus a majority of its 16 counterparts before a report forecast to show manufacturing last month expanded at the fastest pace this year. Economists expect that the Institute for Supply Management`s manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in May, the strongest so far this year. The EUR traded around 1.3624. It weakened over 1.7 percent in May. It rose 0.2 percent against
the JPY and traded around 138.97. The JPY won 2.1 percent in May versus the EUR.
The AUD fell after reports today showed house prices in the nation`s capital cities weakened and building approvals declined by the most since June last year. Median dwelling prices for Australia`s capital cities dropped 1.9 percent in May, data from RPData-Rismark showed today. Building approvals slid 5.6 percent in April, the statistics bureau said today. The AUD fell 0.3 percent to 0.9279, set for the biggest drop in almost two weeks. It weakened 0.1 percent to 94.63 JPY.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=564 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-03-2014, 09:33 AM
The USD was within 0.1 percent of the strongest in three months versus the EUR as an increase in Treasury yields and jobs data tomorrow predicted to show an improving labor market. Tenyear Treasury yields rose five basis points to 2.53 percent yesterday, after declining 17 basis points in May, the biggest monthly drop since January. Economists expect that the ADP Research Institute will announce companies in the U.S. added 213,000 positions in May, following the previous months 220,000 increase. A June 6 Labor Department report may show a 215,000 jobs gain in the U.S.
Demand for the single currency was limited before a report today projected to show euro-area inflation slowed in May, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to expand easing on June 5. Euro-area inflation probably slowed to 0.6 percent in May from 0.7 percent in April. The AUD held a drop from yesterday, its biggest in two weeks, as economists forecast the Reserve Bank will maintain record-low interest rates at a policy meeting today. China, Australia`s largest trading partner, will release reports on services and manufacturing. The USD was little changed at 1.3596 against the EUR. It traded at 102.42 JPY following a 0.6 percent gain yesterday. The EUR was at 139.27 JPY from 139.21.
The Federal Reserve is slowing the pace of the bond purchases it uses to fuel growth amid signs the economy is improving, while keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero since 2008. That contracts with expectations of the ECB, which is forecast to become the first among its major peers to implement negative interest rates when policy makers meet on June 5. ECB President Mario Draghi and other officials have signaled that all options, including negative rates and conditional liquidity for banks, are up for discussion this week.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=573 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-05-2014, 09:15 AM
The EUR was 0.1 percent from its weakest in three months and a gauge of currency volatility yesterday rose to a two week high as traders speculated on the policy action the European Central Bank will...

PCMNewsdesk
06-06-2014, 10:33 AM
The EUR had its biggest jump in three month versus the USD yesterday as the market rejected the European Central Bank´s unprecedented effort to weaken the single currency. The ECB cut its deposit...

PCMNewsdesk
06-09-2014, 11:57 AM
On Friday the Dow Jone’s Index of shares won 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index climbed also 0.5 percent close to the 2,000 mark. Both closed at record high. Today a report showed that Japan’s economy strengthened at the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2011. Economists had estimated that gross domestic product grew at 5.6, but data even showed an advance of 6.7 percent in three months to March. Japan’s trade deficit narrowed to 780 billion yen in April, from 1.1 trillion yen the previous month. The JPY decreased versus all its major peers, reducing demand for the JPY as a save haven currency. The USD/JPY dropped 0.1 percent to 102.60 and the EUR/JPY declined 0.1 percent to 140.00. The EUR/USD was coming from a 0.1 percent loss on June 6 and is now nearly unchanged at 1.3646. Australia’s currency was at 0.9340 USD from 0.9333 on June 6, following a two-week 1.1 percent gain. Due to a holiday the Australian market is closed.
Yesterday data showed that China’s export increased in the past month more than the market had forecasted. Exports in the world’s second-largest economy advanced 7 percent from a year earlier. But the imports unexpectly decreased 1.6 percent and the trade surplus rose to $35.92 billion. These stronger Chinese exports might convince Chinese leader’s that a recovery in demand from the U.S. and Europe will support economic growth and maybe also reduce the need for more stimulus. Last Friday data showed that US unemployment rate held steady at 6.3 percent and 217,0000 jobs were added in the past month, which is slightly fewer than expected. This data support the assumption that the US economy is gaining momentum.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=594 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-10-2014, 02:57 PM
Yesterday the Dow Jone’s Index of shares won 0.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index climbed also 0.1 percent close to the 2,000 mark. So both ended at record highs. Furthermore global equity markets closed higher yesterday close to an all-time high. Yesterday a report revealed that investor confidence in the euro-zone dropped to 8.5 from 12.8 and as recod-low foreign-exchange volatility increased demand for higher-yielding assets. As a result the EUR declined versus nearly all of its 16 major counterparts. Beyond that the USD rose versus the most of its major counterparts as an increase in U.S. government bonds yields underpinned support for the USD. The EUR weakened 0.4 percent versus the USD to 1.3594. The EUR/JPY dropped 0.3 percent to 139.37 and the USD strengthened against the JPY to 102.53 after data had showed yesterday that Japan’s current-account surplus in April declined more than it has been expected to 187.4 billion JPY. This Friday June 13 Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is going to speak after the central bank will release its rate decision.
Data yesterday showed that Canadian housing starts appreciated in the past month to their strongest level in seven months. In addtition the Canadian industry rebounds from the impact of a hard winter. Housing starts climbed to 198,324 at a seasonally adjusted annual pace in the past month, which is more that economists had forecasted. The USD/CAD decreased 0.1 percent to 1.0910.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=595 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-13-2014, 12:08 PM
The Iraq anxiety controls Wall Street and therefore U.S. stocks and indices showed a negative trend today. To the contrary Oil prices appreciated and reached the highest levels since September 2013. Brent crude futures rose 3.0 percent to 113.27 USD a barrel while U.S. crude added 2.2 percent to 106.71 USD. Caused by the sluggish U.S. economy regarding weak U.S. retail sales and bad weekly jobless claims data and by the Fed`s low interest rates, the USD depreciated for a second day against many currencies. Thus the USD fell against the EUR for the first time in five trading sessions after the EUR earlier hit a low of 1.3510. The currency pair EUR/USD moved by 0.2 percent to 1.3552. The USD also depreciated in value against the JPY and reached a level of 101.736. The GBP showed a gain of 0.8 percent versus the USD and rose to 1.6929. The EUR/GBP continued its downward trend and fell to the lowest level since November 2012. The currency pair is currently traded at 0.8005. The JPY appreciated against the EUR to reach a four-month high. The JPY gained 0.2 percent and is now traded at 137.83. According to Bloomberg data for 2014, the USD has lost 0.7 percent this year among 10 developed-nation currencies. The same data also showed that the EUR lost 2.2 percent.
Meanwhile the JPY was able to gain 3.2 percent since January 2014.
The CAD gained in value versus the USD by 0.1 percent to reach a value of 1.0856. Meanwhile the AUD streghtened 0.5 percent against the USD and is now traded at 94.26. NZD showed the steepest increase in value in four months due to the increased interest rates of the central bank to a level of 3.25 percent. The NZD/USD surged 1.65 percent to 0.8691.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=612 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-19-2014, 10:13 AM
The U.S. dollar traded weaker overnight after the press conference which followed the FOMC monthly meeting. The Federal Reserve made it clear that interest rates will remain at their near zero levels even after the bond purchasing program has concluded. The purchasing program was further cut back as expected but markets were surprised by the dovish comments made by Chair Yellen. Markets now expect rates to remain at current levels into 2015 and perhaps even longer. Importantly, the Federal Reserve also downgraded expectations for economic growth in the U.S. for this year after weaker than expected results from the first quarter. While many blame the figures on the extreme weather during the winter, it has nevertheless caused some analysts to question just how strong the recovery has been so far. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is now on track for its lowest close in over a month. The guage showed that the dollar lost 0.4 percent yesterday and currently trades around $1.3590 per euro and 101.90 per yen.
In other news overnight, the New Zealand dollar gave back some of its recents gains as first quarter growth data failed to meet expectations. The GDP data showed that the economy grew at 1 percent in the first quarter which was 0.1 percent lower than expectations. As a result the currency fell 0.3 percent to 87.10 U.S. cents. Also, the British pound approached a five-year high after Bank of England minutes revealed that the central bank may begin raising rates sooner rather than later. The minutes revealed that the bank is surprised by analyst reports of a very low probability of rate rises this calendar year. The pound is trading close to the $1.7011 level which was the five-year high reached on June 16.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=665 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-20-2014, 11:13 AM
Currency volatility has declined to a record low according to a Deutsche Bank guage which measures the activity in world forex markets. It fell to 5.28% yesterday which is the lowest value since the bank first started making measurments in 2001. It reflects the general lack of trade which is being seen across a number of asset classes as investors seem to be waiting for the next big news which sets the direction for world markets. There seems to be no clear trends in the markets with most currencies pushing generally sideways as many analysts note that range trading seems to be the measure of the day at the moment. Trading volumes are down which is adding to the lack of volatility. As a result the overnight trade in Asia failed to produce any large movements in currency markets.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Inbdex also declined 0.1 percent overnight to sit just above 1,000 at 1,009.28 and that is just above the lows seen on May 21. Most analysts note that investors are soft on the Greenback due to the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Adding to the downward pressure is perhaps the Markit Economics report of U.S. manufacturing which is due out today. The index is expected to drop in data to be released today. Furthermore, GDP data due out next week is also expected to be weak and possibly even show a contraction of the world’s largest economy. The U.S. dollar is poised for a 0.6 percent decline against the euro on the week which is the sharpest fall since April 11. In other currencies, the Australian dollar added another 0.1 percent against its U.S. counterpart overnight trading above 94 U.S. cents. It is set to post a four week gain.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=666 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-25-2014, 11:45 AM
In the absence of a large amount of updated news combined with the presence of central bank stimulus continuing longer than some may have expected has pushed volatilities to maintain record lows as investors wait for market moving activity to rejoin markets. This low acivity seems to be the main driver of current moves with further news difficult to come by. The stimulus is wide-ranging and includes Japan, England, the U.S. and the Eurozone. The Bank of Japan released a statement which stated that they would continue to increase the monetary base in the range between 60 and 70 trillion yen per year. The outspoken Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also released his ‘third arrow’ of his plan to bring Japan back from a long period of low growth and deflation. The plan, which was approved by the cabinet includes reducing corporate tax rates and opening up trade possibilities. The yen benefited from the news and seemingly an increase in tensions about the violence in Iraq forcing investors back towards safe haven assets. The yen gained 0.1 percent against the dollar to trade around 101.89 which repesents a 1.3 percent rise for the quarter. In other central bank news, the Governor of the Bank of England Carney also announced that the authority will likely hold on reducing stimulus measures including raising interest rates until growth in the jobs market shows better signs of improvement. The comments were negative for the British pound as it dropped back below 1.70 pounds per dollar and seems to have broken an unwavering rise which has taken place over the last few months. The Australian dollar took a further hit overnight after dropping 0.6 percent yesterday as the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics cut forecasts in iron ore prices which are set to fall over the next two years. The export of the mineral is an important part of Australia’s economy.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=703 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-26-2014, 12:07 PM
Overnight news has centred around the New Zealand dollar which has benefited greatly from the dovish comments from central bank leaders around the world recently. In comparison, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has acted hawkishly and already starting raising rates from their historically low levels as the first developed nation to do so earlier this year. Indeed, the central bank has raised the rates three times already and comments from the bank suggest that the bank will not stop there. In what as known as a carry trade, many investors have been using the weakness in the U.S. dollar and widening of the gap in interest rates between America and New Zealand to make money by borrowing the American currency in order to buy the Kiwi currency before exchanging back at a later date. This sort of strategy has produced 3.4 percent this month alone which is a far better return than the one which has been seen across other markets especially given the low volatility in world currency markets. The New Zealand dollar gained a further 0.3 percent to 87.63 U.S. cents overnight after it touched 87.72 cents earlier. That is the highest value seen since May 6 and within one cent of a record high as the New Zealand dollar seems to be the greatest benefactor of the weak GDP figures out of the U.S. In fact the carry trade strategy has benefited from low volatility as little changes in the value of the two currencies and hence the risk of a larger debt having to be paid back are reduced. Traders are expecting a further hike in rates in the next 12 months as the New Zealand economy gained 3.8 percent in the first quarter from a year ago. As a comparison, the U.S. economy contracted 2.9 percent in the same period. This contraction is the largest drop since the first quarter of 2009 when the financial crisis still had a strong hold on the world’s largest economy. Analysts had only expected the economy to retract by 1.9 percent due to the bad weather in North America.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=707 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-27-2014, 10:11 AM
To continue our report from yesterday, the New Zealand dollar has continued its rise towards an all-time record after export data was released overnight. The currency is now only 0.6 percent from the record mark as more investors seem to be taking advantage of the carry trade which was mentioned in yesterday’s report. The combination of much higher interest rates in New Zealand and close to record lows in volatility in the currency markets is encouraging investors to take advantage of the interest rate differences by borrowing U.S. dollars and investing them in New Zealand. Analysts note that the current momentum in the Kiwi currency and the likely continuation of current conditions point to a strong likelihood that the currency will indeed break the record set at 88.43 U.S. cents on August 1, 2011. The high reached overnight was 87.94 and the dollar currently trades slightly off that level at around 87.77 cents.
In other Asian news, the Japanes yen continued its strong gains against the U.S. dollar as well after positive data was released overnight. The unemployment rate unexpectedly shrank to 3.5% which is the lowest level seen since 1997. Economists had predicted the gauge would remain unchanged at 3.6%. As an extra boost, consumer prices rose at the greatest pace for over three decades last month which is increasing confidence that monetary and fiscal policies currently being implemented in Japan are having the desired effect and the speculation is rising that the Bank of Japan will not continue to boost stimulus measures. The yen rose another 0.3 percent to 101.40 yen per dollar after trading as low as 101.31 in recent trade.
As already noted, the volatility has been much lower recently with little changes seen to the EUR/USD currency pair this week. The euro rose about 0.2 percent over the week after starting just under the $1.3600 level on Monday and currently trades around $1.3625 per euro.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=729 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
06-30-2014, 10:39 AM
Due to a shrinking gross domestic product in the U.S., a weak development of the customer spendings and the expectation that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates sooner as expected, the USD continues its downward trend and weakened the most in almost three months. As a result, the Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5 percent to 1,005.04 which marked the third straight weekly decline and further the biggest since April 2011. In comparison to its major peers, the USD fell against 13 of its 16 major peers the last week. The USD lost 0.6 percent against the JPY and the pair is now traded at 101.42 JPY per USD. Overall the USD fell 0.3 percent against the JPY this month, 1.8 percent this quarter and 3.7 percent during 2014. The USD also lost in value against the EUR and this currency pair is now traded at 1.3649 USD per EUR which marks a 0.4 percent decline. The GBP showed its longest run of quarterly gains versus the USD since 2007. The GBP advanced 2.2 percent to 1.7035 GBP per USD. In June the GBP was able to gain 1.7 percent against the USD.
Due to tensions in North Korea, Iraq and Ukraine and the corresponding geopolitical risks, the JPY registered gains against most of its major peers because the currency offers investors stability. Thus the yen reached near a one-month high against the USD after it completed a 0.6 percent weakly gain. The JPY was also able to gain in value against the EUR and rose to 138.41 JPY per EUR. The JPY gained 0.3 percent over the last week and 0.2 percent over the entire month of June. In New Zealnd the central bank increased its interest rates for the third time this month. Thus the NZD climbed to within a half-cent of a record. NZD/USD now trades at 0.8762. However, a moderately decline of the NZD is expected in the next six months.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=740 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-01-2014, 10:21 AM
Today the most important news comes from overseas, exactly from United States and Australia. The USD was largely influenced by the bearish mood after a disappointing regional U.S. factory data was published. It raised concerns that monetary authorities might leave interest rates low for a longer period than expected. Despite the high jump in pending home sales of 6.1 percent in May from April the dollar was traded largely lower against most major currencies and closed at an eight-week low yesterday, at $1.3692 per euro. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which compares the USD to 10 major counterparts, was at 1003.77, near the lowest close since May 6. Now the investors are turning their attention to the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report. Due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday it will be released a day earlier on Thursday. It is expected that strong jobs numbers will encourage investors to start buying the dollar again.
The Australian dollar was 0.2 percent near its highest (0.9445) in almost three months before the nation´s central bank sets policy. Changes in rates affect interest rates in consumer loans, mortgages and bond rates. The recent rise of AUD is helping to keep lid on inflation but is also causing problems in sales of locally-made products. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold its cash target at 2.5 percent.
In Europe, the euro zone´s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 0.5 percent in June. This puts pressure on the ECB to think about further monetary easing measures to reach the target of 2.0 percent. Possible solutions could be further rates cutting in order to expand the money supply and to increase private demand with measures to encourage customers to borrow more money from banks hence increase number of investments and overall productivity.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=772 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-03-2014, 09:55 AM
There are concerns that GBP has gained an increase by 3.7 percent this year and is therefore the most overbought since the 1980s. Considering this the Bank of England may raise interest rates as Governor Mark Carney said June 12 that U.K.´s first post-crisis rate increase “could happen sooner than markets currently expect” as the economy improves. The key rate has been at an all-time low of 0.5 percent since March 2009. The overall long-term trend seems to be on the upside as the currency has reached to the strongest level versus USD since 2008. Yesterday GBP was at almost six-year high of $1.7177, from as low as $1.4814 in July 2013. If it breaks beyond $1.72 than the resistance level from 1997 will be crossed. Meanwhile the U.S. economy shrank during the first quarter by the most in five years. U.S. Dollar Index year-end predictions have dropped from 86.7 to 83.6 as the IMF reduced last month its forecast for U.S economic growth from 2.8 percent to 2.0 percent. Additionally, the Fed cut its GDP projection from 3.0 percent to 2.3 percent last month. That may spur inflation and in anticipation of higher interest rates investors starting to buy USD. The Fed has held its benchmark rate target at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. At that point inflation was at 1.4 percent, below the central bank´s 2.0 percent target. The gross domestic product shrank 2.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, the most since 2009. The AUD has reached an almost eight-month high this week climbing 5.8 percent this year after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its benchmark cash rate at a record low 2.5 percent for an 11th month. The Australian dollar has gained almost 8 percent since the Reserve Bank of Australia moved to a neutral bias in February this year. After the $0.9500 level was touched yesterday, a poorer than expected trade deficit for May put AUD under pressure and it traded at $0.94000 in the evening hours. In Europe traders will hear the results of the latest ECB meeting, where no significant new announcements are expected.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=787 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-07-2014, 09:49 AM
Last Friday the Dow Jones index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and is now above 17,000 for the first time. The Standard & Poor’s Index rose also 0.5 percent. Yesterday IMF chief Christine Legarde said that global economic activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and accelerate in 2015, although momentum could be weaker than expected. Risks also remain in the U.S. even as its rebound accelerates. Last Thursday the U.S. Labor Department report showed that emploers in the U.S. expanded payrolls by 288,000 workers in June, and therefore the U.S. jobless rate dropped to 6.1 percent from 6.3 percent in May. Legarde also said that countries should boost growth by investing in infrastructure, education and health because central banks’ accommodative policies may only have limited impact on demand. Later in July the IMF will update its economic outlook which will be slightly different from their last forecast in April, as the forecasted a global growth by 3.6 percent this year and a 3.9 percent next year. In the meantime Fed officials are debating about how long they will keep the interest rate at a record low after completing a bond-buing program that’s set to end last this year. In June 18 the Federal Committee repeated that it expects to leave the rate near zero for a considerable time. Today U.S. markets will reopen after a holiday weekend.
Last week the EUR touched the lowest level versus the USD since June 26, as it was 0.4 percent down and is trading now around 1.3588. The USD/JPY was at 102.11 and the EUR/JPY traded at 138.76. The AUD/USD decreased 0.7 percent last week to 93.66, which is its largest five-day tumble since May 23.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=819 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-08-2014, 10:35 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.3 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also fell 0.4 percent. After U.S. reports had showed a strengthening jobs market the market gauge the timing of Federal Reserve interest-rate increased. It is estimated that U.S policy makers will rise their benchmark rate in the third quarter of 2015, rather than the first quarter of 2016. The U.S. interest rate is in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 to support the economy. The Fed is going to release the minutes of its June 17-18 meeting tomorrow. As a result the USD dropped 0.2 percent versus the JPY, which is the most for more than a week. The USD/JPY touched 101.86 and the EUR/USD gained 0.1 percent to 1.3605. The EUR/JPY tumbled 0.1 percent to 138.58. After the U.S. treasury 10-year note yields had advanced 10 basis points last week, it declined now three basis points to 2.61 percent.
Economists estimated that the U.K. central bank will leave its benchmark rate at a record low 0.5 percent on July 10. But the market still estimates that the Bank of England will be the first major central bank to increase interest rates. Beyond that the market assumes that the current rally of the GBP to a five-year high might soon come to an end as the Federal Reserve moves towards increasing interest rates. The GBP/USD decreased 0.2 percent to 1.7131 and the EUR/GBP fell 0.3 percent to 0.7940.
Mario Draghi warned Greek Finance Minister that Greece should not assume its reforms have been completed. Yesterday the finance minsterst met and an official said that further emergency aid will probably be needed as the government still faces a funding shortfall and is still behind its commitments to overhaul the economy. But Greece also fought off calls to consider a third bailout.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=833 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-09-2014, 10:13 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.7 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also fell 0.7 percent. In addition global equity markets decreased on Tuesday while media prospects that the European Central Bank will probably not launch an asset-purchase program. On Monday ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who is against a program of asset purchases, said this should be a last resort. Furthermore data showed yesterday that imports and exports in Germany, Europes largest economy, tumbled more than estimated. Exports fell 1.1 percent in May and imports weakened by 3.4 percent in May. The EUR/USD was at 1.3610 and the EUR bought 138.18 JPY. The USD depreciated 0.3 percent to 101.51 JPY.
The next major focus for the market will be the release of minutes today from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s June meeting, which will be scoured for sings of when central bank members see an interest rate increase as likely. On Tuesday Minneapolis Fed President said that he welcomed the recent decrease in U.S. unemployment but also warned the labor market has still a long way to go until U.S. central bank has reached its goal on unemployment.
Yesterday a report showed that U.K. factory output dropped 1.3 percent in May from the previous month, the biggest drop since January 2013. The market estimated a rose of 0.4 percent. Nevertheless the GBP was nearly unchanged versus the EUR as investors overlooked this bad data. Furthermore the National Institue of Economic and Social Research said yesterday that the U.K. economy strengthened at a faster speed in the three months through June. The EUR/GBP was at 0.7945, after it had touched yesterday 0.7915 which was the strongest level since September 2012. The GBP/USD traded at 1.7133.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=834 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-10-2014, 11:22 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also increased 0.5 percent. Yesterday the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting have been released but failed to provide additional insight on the speed of future interest rate roses. According to the officials policy depends most on the evolution of the economic outlook. They agreed to monitor markets for signs of froth and only if necessary to take measures to address excessive risk-taking and associated financial imbalances. The asset purchases of the FED will probably come to an end in October this year. As a result the EUR advanced 0.2 percent for a third day against the USD to 1.3642. The USD/JPY traded at 101.64 and the EUR bought 138.65 JPY.

Yesterday Mario Draghi said in his speech in London that euro zone states should respect their joint fiscal rules and extend their cooperation to economic reforms, and urged governments to learn to govern together. He repeated again his message that the ECB is ready to use unconventional instruments if needed, like for example large-scale asset buying. He also added that high debt made countries more vulnerable in the event of financial shocks. In addition euro zone states may be able to achieve the mutual trust that is a pre-requisite for intergration in other areas if they show the willingness to respect common fiscal rules. Beyond that ECB’s top financial supervisor said that plans to complete bank safety checks are running according to plan. The ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism is preparing to oversee around 120 banks as the leading European watchdog from November 4.
Today the Bank of England is going to release its interest rate decision and economists forecasted that the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5 percent. Today also U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims are going to be released.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=845 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-11-2014, 10:19 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares weakened 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index also dropped 0.4 percent. The Euro Stoxx even dropped 1.6 percent, extending its loss for the week to 3.3 percent which would be the biggest weekly decrease in more than a year. Furthermore stocks worldwide declined and investors flocked to safe-haven government bonds and gold based on fears problems at Portugal’s biggest listed bank.Trading in Banco Espirito Santo was halted after a 19 percent tumble. The bank’s largest shareholder suspended trading in its own shares and bonds due to material difficulties at its own largest shareholder. So the euro region remains vulnerable to shocks as it emerges from the debt crisis. In addition data yesterday revealed that in France, europe’s second largest economy, consumer prices and industrial output decreased more that estimated. In europe’s third largest economy, Italy, industrial output also decreased. As a result the EUR depreciated 0.2 percent versus the USD to 1.3609 and the EUR/JPY tumbled 0.5 percent to 137.91. The USD/JPY slid 0.3 percent to 101.07.
On Thursday data showed that unemployment rate in Australia climbed to 6 percent in the past month from 5.9 percent in May, which is now the highest rate since July 2003. Furthermore data also showed that imports in China, which is Australias largest trading partner, only gained 5.5 percent in June from a year earlier. Economists forecasted an increase of 6 percent. As a result , the AUD/USD depreciated 0.2 percent to 0.9395.
As estimated the Bank of England left yesterday the interest rate unchanged at a record low while trade deficit and housing data in U.K. dropped below economists’ forecast. The GBP/USD fell 0.2 percent to 1.7125 and the EUR/GBP traded at 0.7942.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=846 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-15-2014, 10:18 AM
This week focus will be on the Federal Reserve chairman Yeelen testimony which is expected to give indications on how close the Fed is to its first rate increase. This testimony might have a deep impact on forex markets and the US Dollar might continue its strengthening against major currencies such as the Euro and the Canadian Dollar. Trading opportunities might be seen on the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar as the Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting will be held and is expected to mainly focus on CPI and growth outlooks rather than on rates which are expected to remain unchanged.
The Euro continue to maintain bearish against the US Dollar as a result of the expected USD strengthening. Furthermore concerns on the European Central Banks policy might impact trading behavior nevertheless analyst do not expect the Portuguese Banking sectors health to spur any further systematic risks into the euro-zone periphery. As a result the Europe shared currency just suffered minor changes against the US Dollar and was traded at 1.3621.
The Bank of Japan kept its stimulus unchanged (eventhough it is on a record level) on expect the inflation to reach its target price level of 2 percent. The central banks strategy of increasing the monetary base and that-fore increasing the inflation rate should work and analyst are confident that the goals on the long-run will be reached. The Japanese currency was little changed of 0.1 percent to 101.60 per dollar. Also it fell 0.1 percent to 138.40 per euro. Finally the Australia’s dollar decreases against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank reiterated its expectation for a period of stable interest rates.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=896 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-16-2014, 10:57 AM
The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen points out how important the record monetary stimulus is in order to combat the persistent job-market weakness. During the testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee that was held yesterday, she said “We need to be careful to make sure that the economy is on a solid trajectory before we consider raising interest rates”. Also the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell as much as 0.6 percent as the Monetary Policy Report that was published by the Federal Reserve, pointed out that the valuation of companies in social-media and biotech industries appear to be “substantially stretched. The currency continues its appreciation against other foreign currencies – AUD/USD fell 0.3 percent at 0.9346.
The European Central Banks President Mario Draghi talked in testimony to the European Parlament in Straßbourg yesterday. He pointed out that the “convenience to use the ECB cheap money to buy government bonds is much less” than for previosu rounds of funding. The EUR/USD is down 0.03 percent to 1.3564 which should be linked to a continuous appreciation of the dollar instead of a news related impact.
Looking at the overall performance of the major currencies, by using the Bloomberg Currency Rates Matrix we can point out the NZD is the worst performer for the last day, losing against all its counterparties. The EUR/NZD traded at 1.5595. This movement might have been linked to publication of economic datas by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Furthermore the EUR/AUD appreciated and went up 0.2 percent to 1.45196.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=909 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-17-2014, 11:06 AM
The Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz has not given any signal on the direction of his next interest rate move. Nevertheless the economic weakness will trigger the inflation above the central banks target. Policy makers who are close to Poloz pointed out how important the monetary policy was for the economic recovery. The CAD has appreciated 0.1 percent to 1.0746 per USD.
The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is making 30 trillion JPY available to banks to encourage refinancing and improve liquidity within the banking sector. Offering 0.1 percent on four years loans – this marks a historical low for borrowing rates. The JPY has appreciated against most of its counterparties. The EUR has fallen to a five-month low against the JPY before a report forecasted to show the European inflation is still below the European Central Bank’s target. The EUR/JPY deppreciated 0.1 percent to 137.40 after falling to 137.36 which has been the weakest performance since February.
The NZD extended its deppreciation movement against major currencies – this losing streak is the longest since August 2013 and might have been related to traders forecasts on how much the the New Zealands Central Bank will raise interest rates. NZD/USD has fallen 0.2 percent to 0.8695 – with an overall deprication of 1.5 percent over the last six days.
Finally the AUD deppreciated against most of its 16 major counterparts following the National Australia Bank’s statement on the business confidence index which fell to 6 in the second quarter. The AUD/USD has fallen 0.1 percent to 0.9359 after reaching it’s lowest level since the beginning of July.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=922 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-21-2014, 01:22 PM
After Federal Reserve Chair Yellen proclaimed last week that borrowing costs may rise sooner than expected and because investors are still anxious about the turmoil in Ukraine, the USD, which is considered by investors as a safe and sound investment especially during the current crises, was able to gain in value against the EUR and against its other major currency peers. This meant that for the first time since February, the EUR fell below $1.35 which is seen by some dealers as the critical level which defines whether the European Central Bank will be able to stimulate further growth in Europe and to protect an even stronger decline of its currency. The EUR reached $1.3491, which marks the lowest level since February. Overall, the USD was 0.2 percent from a four-week high against major peers before data tomorrow that may show U.S. inflation held at the fastest pace since October 2012. Regarding the JPY, the USD was traded little changed at 101.35 yen.
Due to a faster recovering U.K. economy in contrast to the European economy, the pound gained in value versus the EUR and touched the strongest level in 22 months. The currency pair is now traded at 79.18 pence per EUR and at $1.7089 per GBP. The NZD strengthened against all 16 major couterparts and still profits from the speculation that the nation`s Reserve Bank will raise borrowing costs this week for a fourth-straight meeting. As a result, the NZD rose 0.2 percent to 87.04 U.S. cents. After inflation passed the central bank`s 2 percent target for a second month, the Canadian currency advanced to its strongest level in a week. The currency was able to appreciate versus most of its 16 major peers. The CAD is now traded 1.0733 CAD per USD. One important notice for this trading day is that today (Monday) Japanese markets are closed due to a holiday.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=935 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-24-2014, 11:14 AM
Due to a divergence in borrowing costs and monetary policies between Europe and the U.S., the USD reported additional wins versus the EUR and advanced to the highest in eight months. The USD appreciated 0.4 percent to 1.3466 per EUR. It also appreciated versus the JPY by 0.1 percent to 101.46 JPY per USD. The EUR depreciated versus the JPY by 0.4 perccent and is now traded at 136.63 yen. The EUR alos declined against the majority of its peers and a quick improvement is not in sight as analysts expect that consumer sentiment remains subdued. The AUD rose to the most since November against the EUR after the central bank chief said he was content with the monetary policy. Overall, the AUD was able to record gains versus most of its 16 major peers due to positive news regarding Australia`s monetary policy. Annual price gains were in the top half of the central bank`s target range. The AUD rose 0.6 percent to 1.4335 AUD per EUR and even touched 1.4312, which marked the strongest level since November 12. It gained 0.2 percent to 93.94 U.S. cents after dropping 0.2 percent the day before. The positive development of the AUD makes it the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomber Correlation Weighted Indexes. The same Indexes also indicate that the NZD has lost 0.3 percent along with the EUR. Meanwhile the USD was able to gain 0.2. percent. For tomorrow, it is expected that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise its borrowing costs for a fourth time this year.
Gold declined in the last two weeks caused by strong economic data in the U.S. which streghtened the USD and boosted demand for equities. Gold for immediate delivery is traded at $1,306.96 an ounce. On July 10, the price for ounce was at $1,345.17.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=972 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-24-2014, 11:16 AM
The USD still benefits from the contradictory monetary policy of the other major central banks around the globe. The U.S. currency strengthened versus nine of its peers in July. As a reaction, the Bllomberg Dollar Spot Index is currently showing its biggest advance since January this year. In July, the USD appreciated 1.7 percent versus the EUR. After breaking through key support levels, the EUR further lost in value against the USD and reached a one-year low. According to various forecasts, the EUR may even fall to $1.32 by the year-end. After Carney said that the strong GBP along with a weak demand from key export markets, continued government budgetcutting and household indebtedness are holding back the British economy growth, the GBP fell versus 30 of its 31 major peers on Wednesday. The GBP lost 0.1 percent against the USD to reach a level of $1.7044. Against the EUR the British currency is now traded at 78.99 pence per EUR.
After New Zealand`s central bank said it would pause interest-rate increases after already raising its official cash rate from 3.25 to 3.5 percent, the NZD showed a negative reaction and dropped. The currency declined 0.9 percent to 86.20 U.S. cents. Meanwhile, the AUD climbed to the highest level in almost two weeks against the USD caused by speculations that interest rates will be lowered after a jump in inflation. It advanced versus all of its 16 major peers. The AUD climbed 0.7 percent to 94.56 U.S. cents. Due to an increased number in retail sales, the CAD reached the strongest level in almost a week and streghtened against the USD by 0.3 percent to reach C$1.0711 per USD. Gold for mmediate delivery experienced a further decrease by 0.4% percent and is now traded at $1,298.95/oz.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=971 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-25-2014, 09:39 AM
The USD continues its upward trend and yesterday the Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency against 10 major counterparts climbed to its highest in a month. According to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes the dollar has gained 0.8 percent in the past month. The JPY climbed 0.9 percent and the GBP appreciated by 0.8 percent.The USD is now traded at 101.82 yen and was headed for a 0.4 percent weekly gain. It was little changed against the EUR after having risen 0.4 percent since July 18. After a report showed Japan`s core inflation slowed from the strongest level since 1982, the JPY depreciated. Japane`s consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in June from a year earlier. The GBP was set for a third straight week of losses after a report showed that retail sales rose by less than economists had predicted. The GBP was little changed at $1.6990. However it dropped by 0.6 percent since July 18.Gross dometic data is due today and may cause a reversal.
Since 2009 the AUD experienced gains which may come to end as soon as the central bank is willing to maintan its record-low benchmark interest rate. Alone, this year the AUD has risen more than 6 percent according to the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes and was by far the best performer. Speculators assume that when the AUD falls below 93 U.S. cents, then it may depreciate even by further 2.4 percent to reach a four-month low of 90.78. The NZD tumbled the most in 11 months on Thursday after Wheeler said in his policy statement that he will postpone an increase in interest rates and that the appreciation of the NZD is “unjustified”. Due to a statistic of Bloomberg, the currency was the best performer among 31 peers over the the last five years. Now traders are anticipating a change in course.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=973 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-28-2014, 10:14 AM
In June the European Central Bank put a stimulus package and it cautioned that the economy would take sme time to respond. For a third month in July the inflation rate remained at 0.5 percent. The unemployment rate remain unchanged at 11.6 percent in June. Investors and policy makers have concerns that annual price gains will not reach the ECB´s goal of just under 2 percent and may increase calls for futher actions. The Europe Union´s statistics office is due to release inflation and jobless data on July 31. The European Central Bank predicts the euro-area economy will grow 1 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year and 1.8 percent in 2016. It expects inflation to rise gradually over the next two years to 1.4 percent in 2016. Lending to companies and households, which the ECB has identified as key impediment to the region´s recovery, hasn’t yet improved. Loans shrank 1.7 percent in June from a year earlier. The USD maintained its biggest weekly advance since March against major currencies. The dollar traded near an eight-month high versus the euro before data this week predicted to show economic growth rebounded last quarter and employers added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth straight month.
The Federal Reserve meets from tomorrow to discuss the pace of interest-rate increase. While Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers this month that the U.S still needs an accommodative monetary policy, she also said borrowing costs may rise sooner than investors expected. USD traded at $1.3431 per euro on July 25, when it reached $1.3422, the strongest since November 21. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,013.95 from last week, when it rose 0.5 percent, the most since the period ending March 21, and touched 1,014.39, the highest since June 18.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=999 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-29-2014, 10:41 AM
The U.S. economy failed to rebound as much as investors forecast in the second quarter but the USD increased the most in two weeks against the EUR to $1.3440 yesterday, dropping the most on a closing daily basis since July 14. It touched $1.3422 on July 25, the weakest since November 21. A Labor Department report on August 1 might show nonfarm payrolls increased to 231,000 in July, as the economists expect, which would represent a sixth-straight month with 200,000 or more in job gains for the first time since 1997. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the Commerce Department will say tomorrow the U.S. gross domestic product climbed 3 percent in the three months ended June, indicating the fastest pace of growth for the world´s biggest ecnomy since the quarter ended September 2013 and a rebound from a 2.9 percent contraction in January to March of this year. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index tumbled 0.4 percent on June 18 after Fed Chair Yellen said the central bank plans to keep its interest-rate target low for a “considerable time” after it ends bond-buying. It bottomed at an almost twomonth low of 1,002.25 on July 1 and is now at 1,013.95.
New Zealand´s dollar dropped to a six-week low to 0.8547 after tumbling to 0.8530, the lowest since June 12. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said on July 24 that the currency´s level is “unjustified and unsustainable”, after signaling a pause following four interst-rate increases this year. Meanwhile in Japan the retail sales fell more than forecasted in June, 0.6 percent from a year earlier. Overall consumer prices rose 3.6 percent in June, reflecting a boost from the 3 percentage point. With this background the USD was little changed at 101.86 yen, while the euro gained 0.1 percent to 136.89 yen.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=998 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
07-31-2014, 10:30 AM
Yesterday´s U.S. Commerce Department report showed gross domestic product expanded at a 4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, confirming the Fed´s view that a 2.1 percent contraction in the first quarter was transitory. Consumers, whose spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy, have grown more confident as the labor market improves and rising share prices boost wealth. U.S. policy makers tapered monthly bond buying to $25 billion in their sixth consecutive $10-billion cut, staying on pace to end the purchase program in October. The Fed said the labor market still has plenty of room for improvement, even after a surprising drop in unemployment, bolstering the case for keeping interest rates low. The USD is about to reach for its longest stretch of gains versus JPY in more than 12 years after the U.S. economy rebounded more strongly than economists forecast. It added 0.1 percent to 102.84 yen, heading for a 10th day of gains that would be the longest since December 2001. It has climbed 1.5 percent this month, the biggest advance among group of 10 currency peers. It was little changed at 1.3396 per euro and has risen 2.2 percent since June 30. There is a 63 percent chance the USD will rise by December 31 to touch 105 yen. That is up from a 45 percent probability on July 1. The odds of the U.S. currency strengthening to 1.32 per euro, as predicted by forecasters in a separate Bloomberg survey, have doubled to 70 percent over the period. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the USD against 10 major counterparts, was little changed at 1,020.57.
It has climbed 1.7 percent this month, poised for the biggest advance since Mai 2013. The euro has its biggest monthly loss this July since February 2013. Rather than a cause for concern, the European Central Bank may see weakness in the euro as a welcome development to avoid deflation and spur exports to boost the economy.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1011 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-01-2014, 10:56 AM
The JPY is about to break out of its tightest range against the dollar in more than 40 years and weaken as traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates while the Bank of Japan expands monetary easing. Traders expect the dollar-yen rate to fluctuate by more in the coming year than it has over the past 12 months. The JPY lost 18 percent against the USD last year, its biggest decline since 1979 and the most among its developed-nation peers, before bouncing back from a five-year low of 105.44 per dollar reached January 2. Canada´s dollar touched the weakest level in almost two months and has fallen for the first month since January even as the government said Canadian gross domestic product rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier. The CAD depreciated as much as 0.3 percent to 1.0930 per U.S. dollar, the weakest since June 9. It lost 2.2 percent in July. The Canadian currency has swung this year between a 4 ½ year low and a six-month high as investor speculation fluctuated on when the central bank might raise the benchmark interest rate, which has been held at 1 percent since 2010 to support the economy.
Policy makers kept the rate unchanged on July 16. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said an increase in inflation to 2.4 percent, above central bank´s 2 percent target, is temporary and the nation doesn´t have “a sustainable growth picture”. The USD climbed versus all of its major counterparts in July as signs of a strengthening labor market boosted predictions for higher Federal Reserve interest rates. The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 1.3390 per euro after appreciating to 1.3367 the day before. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose sixth day adding 0.1 percent to 1,021.93.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1012 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-04-2014, 10:13 AM
Last Friday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.4 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index decreased 0.3 percent. In addition Friday data showed that U.S. gross domestic product rebounded in the second quarter, expanding at a 4 percent annualized rate after tumbling 2.1 percent from January through March. The market had estimated a rise to 3 percent. Furthermore employers added fewer jobs than estimated in the past month, boosting payrolls by 209,000.
Analysts had forecasted an increase by 230,000. The U.S. jobless rate unexpectedly climbed to 6.2 percent, from 6.1 percent a month earlier. Moreover, last week the Fed trimmed stimulatory bond purchases to $25 billion in its sixth consecutive $10 billion cut and is still on track to end the stimulation this October. Moreover the Institute for Supply Management reported its index of national factory activity appreciated to 57.1 in the past month, and was the highest since April 2011. As a result the USD rose the most in six months versus its most traded counterparts. It touched an eight-month high versus the EUR to 1.3426. Besides that data showed that inflation slowed in the euro area, whit a consumer price index dropping to 0.4 percent in the past month compared with 0.5 percent in June, which is the lowest reading since 2009. Consumer prices in Germany, Europe`s largest economy, also dropped to 0.8 percent in July from 1 percent in June. The USD rallied for a third week versus the JPY to 102.59 and the EUR/JPY strengthened 0.7 percent to 137.70.
U.K. economic data from manufacturing output to consumer confidence was weaker that economics had estimated, therefore the GBP weakened for a fourth week versus the USD to 1.6824. The EUR/GPB traded at 0.7978.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1024 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-08-2014, 10:15 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones Index of shares dropped 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index even fell 0.6 percent. Yesterday the European Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged at a record low at 0.15 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi signaled monetary policy will diverge from the U.S. for an extended period of time. Yesterday in Frankfurt Draghi commented that headwinds facing the economic recovery in the euro area are heavy as Italy dropped back into recession which was not unexpected by the market. Also the Ukraine crisis has added to risks surrounding the euro zone’s weak recovery. Positive sentiment about the U.S. economy was helped by better-than-expected weekly U.S. jobless claims. Data showed claims fell by 14,000 to 289,000 in the week ended August 2 from 303,000 in the prior period, pushing the average over the past month to an eight-year low. The Federal Reserve is on pace to end its unprecedented bond buying in October this year. The USD gained versus all but one of its 16 main peers. The EUR/USD traded at 1.3364 and the EUR/JPY tumbled to 136.32. The USD/JPY was nearly unchanged at 102.10.
Yesterday as expected the Bank of England also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 0.5 percent following a two-day meeting. Policy makers also left their asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds. U.K. 10-year government bond yields decreased to the lowest in almost a year. The Bank of England is going to update its economic estimates next week while a separate report might show unemployment in U.K sank in three months though June. The GBP/USD weakened to 1.6830 and the EUR/GBP 0.7935. The AUD dropped the most in a monst against the USD as traders revived bets the Central Bank will cut interest rates after unemployment increased. The AUD/USD depreciated to 0.9268.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1025 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-12-2014, 11:13 AM
Following the announcement of Reserve Bank of Australian officials, on the consideration of cutting interest rates unless the economy regains momentum this year’s best-performing currency among the majors has lost ground against some of its counterparties. Nevertheless the AUD was little changed from yesterday at 92.65 US cents after falling as much as 0.2 percent. The EUR has fallen to his lowest since November against the USD before the publication of highly expected data. The economist forecast seem to support the evidence that investor confidence in Germany dropped to the lowest since December 2012 and growth in the region slowed. Furthermore the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank (US) rates expected to diverge – this could also be a widening gap in economic data surprises that could weaken the EUR. The EUR/USD fell 0.1 percent to 1.3376.
The JPY weakened for the second consecutive day against the dollar as easing tensions in Ukraine reduced demand on the currency. It has slided 0,1 percent to 102.30 per dollar. Cumulated with the losses of yesterday (0.2 percent) this marks the biggest loss for this currency pairt this month.
Looking at the Bloomberg FX Matrix, attention should be given to the NZD which has lost ground against all of its major counterparties. The NZD/SEK fell 0.4 percent to 5.7885 and the GBP/NZD increased to 1.9907.
Finally the CAD has traded at a almost three-months low last week following a government report that showed the economy created a paltry 200 jobs in July and the labor force was reduced by 35.400. Nevertheless the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz indirectly pointed out the importants of a weak currency in order to support the national exports.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1050 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-13-2014, 11:16 AM
Europe’s common currency the EUR depreciated yesterday after data showed that German investor confidence fell even more than analyst have forecast and economic analyses that seem to support the hypothesis that Italy might have entered a recession. The EUR has traded 0.2 percent away from its nine-month low and has lost 0.3 percent over the past months according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. Furthermore the EUR has fallen against 12 of its 16 major counter-parties. The EUR/AUD fell 0.16 percent to 1.4400 and the EUR/USD trades at 1.3364.
The USD/JPY is little changed at 102.30 but was able to stop its depreciation that was lasting over the two previous trading sessions. The Cabinet Office published that gross domestic product of Japan has fallen an annualized 6.8 percent since June – the government considers to raise tax to 10 percent in 2015. The EUR/JPY is almost unchanged at 136.72.
The NZD has continued its depreciation against most of its major counter-parties. The NZD/USD fell 0.1 percent to 0.84253 and the NZD/NOK also fell 0.1 percent to 5.2084 according to the Bloomberg FX Matrix. On the other hand, the AUD has appreciated against most of its major counter-parties today after it had lost some ground yesterday. In fact the yesterday’s announcement on interest rate strategies of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s has affected its performance, but it was able to recover today. The AUD/CHF rose 0.15 percent to 0.84254 and the AUD/USD rose 0.11 percent to 0.92805.
Finally the CHF seem to undermine the export performances of Swiss companies as emerging markets currencies have depreciated against it. Over the last year, the lira and rupiah have lost 12.5 percent and 13.6 percent respectively against the CHF.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1051 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-14-2014, 12:10 PM
After Bank of England officials published their quarterly Inflation Report yesterday, analyst focuses had been on wages and growth potentials. The GBP/USD has fallen 0.7 percent yesterday to 1.6688 after reaching 1.6686. This marks the lowest value for this currency pair since the 15th of April 2014. On the other hand it has entered a bullish movement since the beginning of the year and has appreciated from its low in February at 1.6252 to as high as 1.7192 on July 15th. During this period, the median year-end estimate rose from $1.60 to $1.70 and the GBP has strengthened 8.8 percent over the last 12 months.
The European Union’s statistics office will publish important data’s on the economic situation of the euro-area today. Experts expect the economy to have weakened to 0.1 percent against 0.2 percent in the previous period. The data’s might support the evidence that growth has weakened and the inflation rate has not reached the expected level – supporting the idea that further European Central Bank stimuli might be necessary. All focuses will be on today’s publications of statistics and economic data for France, Germany and the Eurozone. The EUR/USD has fallen 0.4 percent during the last three trading sessions to 1.3359. Also the EUR/JPY traded at 137.05 after touching its lowest value since the 21th of November at 135.73 and the USD/JPY has appreciated 0.2 percent to 102.6.
During the period from January to June, the NZD was the best performing currency among the developed countries, but it became the biggest loser this quarter. Besides that, following the announcement of the statistics bureau of New Zealand, that the national retails sales have increased by 1.2 percent, the NZD has gained against most of its 16 counter parties. The NZD/USD has gained 0.1 percent to 0.8465 after raising 0.3 percent yesterday.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1061 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-21-2014, 11:07 AM
In the second quarter of this year, euro-area growth stagnated in comparison to the quarter before as the region`s biggest economies Germany, France and Italy all failed to expand. Inflation in the euro zone is indeed the weakest in almost five years. Now the balance-of- payments data released this week from the region`s central bank is showing that European investors channeled 167.4 billion euros into overseas equities in the 12 months through June and 178.7 billion euros into offshore debt. These numbers are the largest in terms of financial exodus since August 2008. Moreover, foreign cash has failed to offset these outflows so far.
According to the median forecast of more than 50 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the EUR will fall to $1.31 by year-end and to $1.28 by the middle of next year. For 2017, analysts even expect a level around $1.20. In contrast to the EUR, the USD is recently experiencing a rally. After the Federal Reserve`s July meeting, which gives investors space for speculation the central bank may increase interest rates sooner than anticipated, the USD strengthened to an 11-month high versus the EUR. It gained 0.5 percent and is now traded at $1.3259 per EUR. It is the strongest level since September 13. The USD also appreciated versus the JPY by 0.8 percent to reach 103.76 JPY per USD. The EUR rose 0.4 percent to 137.58 JPY. Overall, the USD has gained 1.8 percent during the past month what makes the U.S. currency the second-best performer after Norway`s krone of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The EUR has fallen 0.4 percent and the JPY has declined 0.7 percent.
New Zealand`s currency continues its weak performance during this week and declined to a five-month low on speculation economic growth is waning. The currency dropped for a fourth day against the USD and declined below 84 U.S. cents for the first time since March this year.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1092 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-22-2014, 10:10 AM
Before Federal Reserve Chair Yellen speaks today at a meeting of central bankers in Wyoming, the USD experienced a decline and fell from the highest in months versus the EUR. The U.S. currency slid 0.2 percent to $1.3281 per EUR after reaching the strongest level since September 2010. The long-term prospects for the USD still looks favorable as economic data is considered to be sound. It was mainly the positive Germany data that helped the EUR to rebound against the USD. The EUR rose 0.16 percent to $1.3279. Against the JPY, the USD was able to gain 0.08 percent to reach 103.85 yen. The EUR climbed 0.3 percent to 137.92 yen. Although U.K. retail sales rose more in July than it has been expected, the GBP weakened to the lowest level since April against the USD. Sales volumes excluding auto fuel increased 0.5. percent from June. Nevertheless, the GBP fell 0.1 percent to $1.6580 after earlier declining to $1.6564.
After a sound development of Norway´s economy in the second quarter which surpassed the expectations of analysts, Norway`s krone gained the most in more than a week. The krone gained in value versus all of its major counterparts after data showed the nation`s economy grew 1.2 percent in the three months through June. Economist forecast a 0.6 percent growth for the coming quarter. As a result of the data, the krone appreciated 0.6 percent to 8.1642 per EUR, what is the biggest gain since August 11. It also climbed by 0.8 percent to 6.1471 krone per USD.
U.S. cruide rose and Brent pared losses, lifted by the U.S. economic data after a plentiful supply picture. Brent crude for October rose 35 cents to settle at $102.63 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 51 cents to settle at $93.96 a barrel.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1093 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
08-26-2014, 10:01 AM
The euro has reached an 11-month low versus the USD in anticipation of data this week forecast to show regional economic confidence fell and German inflation stalled. The euro held losses against most of its 16 major counterparts after a speech of Mario Draghi, saying last week that inflation expectations have declined, increasing speculation policy makers will expand stimulus. The euro was little changed at $1.3187 from yesterday, after touching $1.3179, a level not seen since September 9. It lost 0.1 percent to 137.20 yen. The USD rose to a six-month high against 10 leading global peers before a report today projected to show a pickup in U.S. durable goods orders. It was at 104.08 yen from 104.05 yesterday, when it reached 104.49, the highest level since January 23. The U.S. economy is forecast to grow 2 percent this year and 3 percent in 2015, the most in a decade, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. G-10 economies as a whole are projected to expand 1.75 percent to 2.27 percent. The Fed is on track to end bond purchases by October, and the benchmark interest rate will rise to 1 percent by the end of next year, according to a forecast of 67 economists in a Bloomberg survey. It has been in a target range from zero to 0.25 percent since 2008. New Zealand´s dollar declined 0.3 percent to 0.8318 after falling to 0.8313, the weakest since February 27. It fell against all of its 16 major counterparts after statistics bureau data showed today that the New Zealand´s trade deficit in July was bigger than the median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, climbed to as high as 1031.86, a level not seen since February 3.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1111 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-15-2014, 10:08 AM
The European Central Bank expects the euro zone will return to modest growth in the third quarter but full year growth will be less than 1 percent. The EUR has experienced a sharp
decline during the last weeks and months and fell under the level of 1.30 U.S. cents per EUR. In the U.K. Queen Elizabeth II has broken her silence over the Scottish independence vote, telling a member of the public on Sunday that she hoped Scots would think very carefully about the future when voting in a referendum that could break up the United Kingdom. Before a referendum on Scottish independence on Sept. 18, the GBP stayed lower following a decline last week. The GBP lost 0.2 percent and depreciated to $1.6241 after touching $1.6052 on Sept. 10, a level not seen since Nov. 15. In the U.S. the USD has risen as signs of a strengthening U.S. economy boosted speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates.
Australia`s currency came in the cross hairs of sellers first thing on Monday, sliding to a fresh six-month low after a set of disappointing Chinese data weighed on already soft demand. This boosts the chances that the South Pacific nation`s policy makers will hold interest rates at a record low. Until recent weeks, Australia`s interest rates, which are the highest in the developed world after New Zealand, had allowed its currency to resist a rally in the dollar. The Australian dollar fell towards 90 U.S. cents, from around $0.9040 late in New York on Friday and is now traded at $0.9015. While the AUD is the only Group-of-10 currency to advance against the USD this year, its gain has eroded to 1.1 percent from 6.5 percent at the start of July.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1224 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-17-2014, 07:08 PM
Over the course of the last four weeks, the USD was able to gain more than 3 percent compared to a basket of 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes and is the best performer. Due to the speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain a pledge to keep interest rates low for a “considerable time” in its policy statement today, the USD fell the most against its major peers in four months. It declined 0.2 percent to $1.2960 per euro and was little changed at 107.13 yen. According to the index, the yen fell 2 percent and is the biggest loser. The EUR declined by 0.6 percent and so did the Swiss franc, which lost 0.6 percent as well. Yesterday the franc rose 0.1 percent against the EUR to 1.2086 and thus approached the 1.20 per euro-cap inposed by the Swiss National Bank. This is intensifying speculation the central bank will need to intervene in order to weaken the franc.
Caused by the expected independence referendum, the GBP slumped to its weakest level in about 10 months versus the USD at $1.6052. At this level the currency was able to rebound and appreciated to $1.6187. Although the GBP lost against the EUR, it was at 79.97 pence per euro and therefore stronger than its five-year average of 84.53 pence.
Canadian`s dollar rallied after the nation`s factory sales increased to a record high and gained in value versus all of its 16 major peers. The CAD appreciated by 0.8 percent against the USD to C$1.0970 per U.S. dollar after it depreciated yesterday to the weakest level since March 27. Brent crude rose 1.1 percent to $98.97 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures gained 2 percent at $94.82 per barrel, rising on the prospect of a likely supply cut from OPEC.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1246 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-18-2014, 09:50 AM
The USD appreciated to a 14-month high after the Federal Reserve officials raised their forecast for the target rate on overnight loans. The dollar jumped to a six-year high against the yen on Wednesday after Fed officials increased their median estimate for the federal funds rate to 1.375 percent at the end of next year. The euro tumbled from five-month peaks after forecasts from the Federal Reserve showed a faster pace of rate hikes over the next few years than had been projected in June. The GBP was able to gain in value before Scotland votes on independence today against most of its 16 major peers. This development of the pound was also supported by minutes of the Bank of England`s most recent policy meeting which rised expectations for higher interest rates. The GBP streghtened 0.7 percent to 79.02 pence per euro. It also gained 0.5 percent to $1.6358. In late trading, the dollar surged to 108.10 yen, the highest since mid- September 2008, and was last at 107.78, up 0.7 percent. The euro slid to $1.2905, down 0.4 percent, after hitting a five-month high of $1.2981. Overall the dollar index rose 0.6 percent to 84.60, moving to its highest level since July 2013. The euro fell 0.7 percent to $1.2868. The AUD weakened versus 31 major peers amid speculation over whether China might take steps to stimulate growth. Australia`s currency lost 1.6 percent against the USD and fell to 89.51 U.S. cents, which ist the biggest intraday drop since July 2013.
In commodities trading, gold fell 1.0 percent while silver was down 1.3 percent. Both gold and silver sharply extended their declines in afternoon trading. Copper futures rose 0.4 percent.Brent crude futures slipped 0.2 percent to $98.80 per barrel while U.S. crude futures lost 0.8 percent to $94.16 a barrel, declining after a jump of nearly 3 percent over the previous two sessions.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1247 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-19-2014, 10:07 AM
Sterling surged in early Asian trading on Friday after an opinion poll carried out on the day of the referendum showed opponents to Scottish independence had a widening lead on the day of the vote, though it was not a true exit poll. Markets have increasingly wagered that the "No" camp would win and quickly took sterling to a two-year peak on the euro and a two-week high against the U.S. dollar. The pound climbed 0.5 U.S. cent to $1.6445, a marked turnaround from a 10- month low of $1.6051 touched just last week. The GBP rose to a two-week high against the USD and appreciated against all 31 of its major peers.
The USD rose 0.3 percent to 108.69 yen what is the highest level since Sept. 2008. The U.S. currency extended its gains after the government reported that initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 280,000 for the week ended Sept. 13, the lowest since July. The dollar index hit a more than four-year peak of 84.782 and was last at 84.299, flat on the day. The euro recovered from a 14-month low versus the dollar to trade 0.4 percent higher at $1.2917. The pound rose versus most major peers and strenghtened 0.3 percent to 78.81 pence per euro and reached the strongest level since August 2012. It was also able to gain 0.7% versus the USD and climbed to $1.6396.
Central-bank policies came to the fore around the world as Norway`s krone surged after the Norges Bank dropped a reference that it would cut interest rates this year. The krone climbed versus all of its 31 major peers. Switzerland`s franc rose as the central bank refrained from signaling a move to negative rates to counter the currency strength. However, it lost against the USD and declined by 0.7 percent to 0.9339 franc per USD.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1268 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-22-2014, 12:23 PM
The common European currency has reached a 14-month low and held losses from last week versus most 16 major counterparts as continued tension between Russia and Ukraine even amid a truce agreement weighed on prospects for European economy. Today European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks to European Union lawmakers. He will testify to the European Parliament´s economic and monetary committee in Brussels. Banks asked for just 83 billion euros in the first allotment of the ECB´s targeted lending program last week, compared with the median estimate of 150 billion euros by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Investors are speculating that Draghi is running out of options to revive the stalled recovery. Even after surprise interest-rate cuts and an asset-purchase program, inflation expectations fell to an almost four-year low. The euro added 0.1 percent to $1.2844, after falling to $1.2826, a level not seen since July 2013.
The New Zealand´s dollar climbed against all but one of its major peers. It strengthened after Prime Minister Key´s National Party won 48 percent of the vote in a September 20 election, securing the first single-parity majority in parliament since 1996. The NZD added 0.2 percent to $0.8148. It was only unable to gain versus USD as it was near the highest in four years before Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley speaks at a Bloomberg summit. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was at 1055.44 from 1055.85 on September 19, the highest close since June 2010. The dollar has climbed as the Fed edges closer to its first interest-rate increase since 2006, while easing by the ECB and the Bank of Japan are weighing the yen and euro.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1331 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-23-2014, 12:52 PM
ECB President Mario Draghi said yesterday that recent indicators haven´t signaled that the “sharp decline” in the euro area´s economic activity has stopped. He added that policy makers can implement more stimulus if required to stave off deflation. The central bank lowered its deposit rate to minus 0.2 percent this month. Even after cutting borrowing costs for banks to record lows and offering long-term loans, Draghi is struggling to persuade them to take more ECB cash to finance lending to the real. In contrast to other major central banks, the ECB´s assets have shrunk by a third since 2012. The euro was little changed at $1.2849 after rising 0.2 percent yesterday. Australia´s dollar was 0.2 percent from a seven-month low against its U.S. counterpart, while the nation´s debt rose for a second day as the nation´s central bank releases its financial stability review tomorrow. It traded today at $0.8871 from $0.8873 yesterday. The AUD dropped 2.5 percent in the past month, the worst performer among the 10 developed- nation currencies tracked by the Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes. The yen and New Zealand dollar are the next biggest losers, falling 2.1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. The yen rose 0.1 percent to 108.76 per dollar and traded 0.1 percent higher at 139.74 euro. Japanese markets are closed today for a public holiday. New Zealand´s dollar held a two-day drop as a private report showed farmer confidence fell to a two year low. It slipped 0.2 percent to $0.8104. The Bloomberg Commodity Index declined yesterday to the lowest level since July 2009 after Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said growth in the world´s second-largest economy faces downward pressure.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1347 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-25-2014, 10:13 AM
Traders are showing confidence in Mario Draghi´s ability to weaken the euro and stave off deflation, even as the initial results of a key part of the European Central Bank president´s plan fell below estimates. Traders pushed the euro lower, to a new 14-month low of $1.2774 yesterday. A weaker currency suits Draghi. It makes euro-region exports more competitive, while stoking inflation by making imports more expensive. The annualized rate inflation, at 0.4 percent in August, remains a fraction of the ECB´s target of just under 2 percent. Growth in manufacturing and services has slowed to the weakest pace this year, and business confidence in Germany is at a 17-month low, reports showed this week. The median of 70 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey puts the euro at $1.29 by year-end. While that´s down from a prediction of $1.32 as recently as August 15, it still implies an almost 1 percent gain in the currency by the end of December. The survey predicts a drop to $1.26 by the middle of 2015. In the U.S. there are ongoing debates whether the Fed should raise the interest rate or not. Recent reports show progress toward the Fed´s goals of full employment and price stability has slowed. Payroll growth in August cooled to 142,000 from 212,000 the month before. The pace of price gains as measured by Fed´s preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, slowed to 1.6 percent from a year earlier in July from 1.7 percent in May. Inflation has been below the Fed´s 2 percent goal for more than two years. Slow growth outside the U.S., falling energy costs and a strengthening dollar, which lowers the costs of imports, have helped limit inflation.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1374 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-26-2014, 11:36 AM
Japan´s inflation slowed more than expected in August, highliting the risks facing Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in his push for prices to rise 2 percent. The yen near a six-year low may put pressure on inflation by increasing the prices of imported energy and other goods. Kuroda expects price rises to resume between October and March. The yen traded at 108.52 per dollar today after touching a six-year low of 109.46 a week ago. The currency has lost more than 6 percent in value against the dollar in the last three months. Inflation is hurting consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy. Households´spending fell in the four month from April with wages adjusted to inflation dropping 1.7 percent in July. The U.S. currency has risen versus all of its 16 most-traded peers this month as the Fed stays on track to end its bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, in October. It was near the highest in four years as an improving U.S. growth outlook adds to expectations the Federal Reserve is moving toward raising borrowing costs next year. The dollar was little changed at $1.2757 pereuro after gaining to $1.2697 yesterday, the strongest since November 2012. The U.S. gross domestic product grew an annualized 4.6 percent in the second quarter, more than the previous estimate of 4.2 percent released August 28. The Labor Department said yesterday jobless claims rose to 293,000 last week, less than analysts forecast.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1378 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-29-2014, 09:18 AM
The Dow Jones index of shares rose 1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index climbed 0.9 percent. The Bank of England is moving towards raising interest rates and as a result the GBP gained for a second week versus the EUR to its strongest level in two years, amid slowed growth in the euro area where stimulus is being expanded. The GBP increased against most of its 16 major peers after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the point where interest rates begin to normalize is getting closer. Economists forecasted that data tomorrow will show gross domestic product rallied 0.8 percent in the second quarter 2014, while the number of mortgage approvals fell for a second month in August. The past week the GBP strengthened 0.9 percent versus the EUR to 0.7805 and the GBP/USD traded at 1.6260.
Bets increased that the Federal Reserve will raise rates next year which boosted demand for the U.S. currency. In contrast, the European Central Bank has stepped up efforts to boost its balance sheet in recent months by lowering interest rates, announcing a program of cheap loans to banks and by announcing it would buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds. This lead to mounting pressure for europes largest economy Germany to use its healthy budget position to boost public investment, stimulate demand and spur growth. But Chancellor Angela Merkel refused. The USD was close a six-year high versus the JPY after strong economic data bolstered the case for higher U.S. interest rates. The U.S. economy advanced 4.6 percent in the second quarter which is the fastest pace since 2011. The EUR/USD declined to 1.2670 and the AUD tumbled 0.2 percent to 0.8230 USD. The NZD/USD was at 0.7858 after decreasing 3.3 percent last week, capping a sixth straight weekly slid, which is its longest run of losses since 2000.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1401 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
09-30-2014, 10:46 AM
Yesterday the Dow Jones index of shares declined 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index fell 0.3 percent. Based on speculation Britain’s interest rates will rise relative to those of its neighbors boosted the allure of U.K. assets and push the GBP to a sixth monthly gain versus the EUR. Not since 2000 has the GBP had such a run of advance against its 18-nation counterpart. The EUR/GBP was little changed at 0.7811 after tumbling 1.3 percent this month. The GBP/USD traded at 1.6240.
The USD appreciated to a six-month high against emerging-market currencies as signals the U.S. economy is improving bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006. Yesterday the U.S.Commerce Department said that that consumer spending rallied 0.5 percent last month after being unchanged in July. The growth in August was just slightly above the median forecast. Furthermore data yesterday also showed that personal income gained 0.3 percent in August. But the housing sector remains an exception, because a separate report showed that Americans signed fewer contracts in August to purchase previously owned homes. Beyond that the European Commission said that economic sentinment in the euro zone dropped to 99.9 this month from 100.6 in August. The market had estimated a decrease to 100.0. This index was weighed down by less optimistic consumers, retailers and industry. The decreasing optimism was mirrowed by a drop in the business climate indicator which was at 0.07 this month, the lowest level sicne October 2013. The only sector where sentiment improved slightly in September were services and construction. The EUR/USD was nearly unchanged at 1.2685 and the EUR/JPY traded at 138.83. The USD bought 109.40 JPY.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1408 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-01-2014, 12:59 PM
Yesterday the Dow Jones index of shares declined 0.2 percent and the Standard & Poor’s index fell 0.3 percent. The EUR had its worst quarter since 2010 amid the Erupean Central Bank’s moves to swell its balance sheet and cut borrowing costs to spur growth. The EUR dropped to the lowest level in two years versus the USD as slowing inflation boosted the case for the ECB to add further monetary stimulus to avert deflation. Data yesterday showed that consumer price index in the euro area fell to 0.7 percent. Furthermore reports yesterday showed too that retail sales in Germany rose 2.5 percent in August and unemployment rate remained low at 6.7 percent. In europes second biggest economy data showed that France’s national debt hit a record high in the second quarter underlining the country’s struggle to rein in public finances before today the 2015 budget will be presented. In addition another report yesterday showed that U.S. consumer confidence declined in the past month for the first time in five months and home prices in July climbed less than forecasted from a year earlier, underscoring the unsteady nature of U.S. growth. Consumer confidence depreciated to 86.0 from a upwardly revised 93.4 in August and the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer fell to 60.5 in September from 64.3 in August. The EUR/USD decreased 0.4 percent to 1.2631 and tumbled already 3.8 percent in September. The EUR/JPY weakened 0.3 percent to 138.49. The USD/JPY advanced 0.1 percent to 109.63. The JPY sank versus most major counterparts and lost 7.6 percent versus the USD in the third quarter 2014. The Bank of Japan is going to meet next week and the ECB will meet tomorrow but further rate cuts are not expected.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1426 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-03-2014, 12:02 PM
Yesterday the Dow Jones index of shares remained nearly unchanged and the Standard & Poor’s index also closed unchanged. Today the German market is closed due to a holiday. The EUR jumped the most in seven months as the European Centrla Bank failed yesterday to provide details on the size of plan to buy private debt, curbing bets it would expend the ECB’s balance sheet enough to weaken the currency. Draghi told reports that the ECB balance sheet is just an instrument and the only mandate policy makers have to comply with is to bring inflation back to target close to 2 percent. Furthermore Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, warned yesterday that the global economy could be stuck on a new mediocre growth with high debt and unemployment unless policymakers open up labor markets, invest in infrastructure and reform fiscal policies. The EUR gained 0.6 percent, which is the largest advance since March, to 1.2699 USD. The USD/JPY decreased 0.4 percent to 108.40 and the EUR bought 137.35 JPY.
Australias currency rebounded from an eight-month low versus the USD to 0.8794. The GBP depreciated versus most of its 31 major counterparts after Bank of England policy maker suggested the U.K. economic recovery may not be strong enough for interest rate increases.
Yesterday data showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week which might be a sign that the labor market is tightening.Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 8,000 to seasonally adjusted 287,000, from 295,000. But other data also showed weaker factory orders in August, which tumbled 10.1 percent. Today U.S. unemployment rate will be announced and economists forecasted that it will remain unchanged at 6.1 percent.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1463 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-07-2014, 10:12 AM
The USD fell the most in more than a year versus 10 major peers on Monday as investors speculate over the timing of the Federal Reserve`s first rate increase since 2006. The dollar depreciated to $1.2653 versus the euro and tumbled 1.1 percent. Before the bank of Japan is going to set policy today, the yen held its biggest gain versus the dollar in six months as economists pare back expectations for more stimulus. The yen gained 0.9 percent versus the USD, which is the biggest gain since April 8. The Japane`s currency was traded at 108.91 yen per dollar, pulling away from an overnight low of 108.65 but still well shy of a six-year peak of 110.09 yen marked last week. The yen was also traded at 137.75 per euro. The euro inched down 0.1 percent on the day to $1.2645 but held well above a more than two-year low of $1.2501 set on Friday, after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates by mid-2015.
The AUD appreciated the most in seven months ahead of an interest-rate decision by the Reserve Bank. The Australian dollar added about 0.1 percent to $0.8766 per AUD, pulling away from Friday's low of $0.8642 which was its lowest level since July 2010. Investors will be watching to see if the Reserve Bank of Australia tries to talk its currency even lower at its regular policy review on Tuesday, at which it is widely expected to hold its cash rate steady at 2.5 percent. The RBA will announce its decision at 11:30 p.m. EDT.
Gold also steadied at $1,205.90 an ounce. In a volatile session on Monday, it marked its biggest one-day gain in two months, after first bumping to a 15-month low.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1508 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-08-2014, 11:49 AM
After the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth and thus fueling demand for haven assets, the yen rose versus all but one of its 16 major peers on Tuesday. In contrast, German industrial production fell the most since 2009 and as a reaction the euro slipped versus the yen. Industrial production in Germany dropped by 4 percent in August from the previous month. The EUR fell 0.6 percent to 136.86 yen but rose 0.1 percent to $1.2669. As U.K. manufacturing grew for a third month in August, the pound rose the most in a week versus the euro. However, the pound was little changed against the USD after showing its biggest advance in two weeks yesterday. Manufacturing production in the U.K. appreciated by 0.1 percent from July. Over the course of the past year, the pound gained 7.1 percent, what is the biggest gain after the dollar among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Indexes. Meanwhile the euro declined by 1.1 percent.
Australian`s currency rose after the central bank held interest rates unchanged. The RBA left the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 2.5 percent. The AUD advanced 0.6 percent to 88.17 U.S. cents and was able to rise from a more than four-year low set last week. The short squeeze in the Aussie came even after the Reserve Bank of Australia said on Tuesday the level of the currency was still historically high despite its 6.3 percent drop against the greenback in September. The Canadian dollar was weaker against the greenback and other major currency counterparts on Tuesday but it stayed clear of the more than six-month lows reached last week as investors looked ahead to Friday's employment figures. Data on Tuesday that showed a larger-than-expected drop in Canadian building permits in August from July briefly weighed on the currency.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1522 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-13-2014, 09:59 AM
The yen advanced to the strongest in three weeks versus the dollar with Asian stocks extended the longest weekly losing streak since February, boosting demand for Japan´s haven assets. The yen and Swiss franc led gains among 10 major currencies in the past week as Federal Reserve officials said a global slowdown may help delay interest-rate increases by threatening U.S. growth. The yen rose 0.5 percent to 107.11 per dollar after appreciating to 107.10, the strongest level since September 17. Japan´s currency climbed 0.2 percent to 135.73 per euro after reaching 135.55, the most since November. The Australian dollar dropped for a third day versus the yen before a report that economists said will show declines in imports by China, the Australian biggest trading partner. Chinese trade data due later in the day will be closely watched and any disappointment there will no doubt keep investors in a 'risk off' mode. Australia´s dollar slid 0.2 percent to 93.30 yen after weakening to 92.87, the lowest level since March 24. It advanced 0.3 percent versus the dollar to $0.8709. The U.S. dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.2672 per euro. Japanese financial markets are closed today and other major centers including the United States and Canada will be partially, or fully, shut for holidays as well.
Minutes of the Fed´s September meeting released October 8 showed authorities highlighting concern over the risks posed to the economy by deteriorating growth abroad an a stronger dollar, which may hurt exports and dam inflation. The FOMC last month retained its pledge to keep interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after it concludes an asset-purchase program that´s due to end after its October 28-29 meeting. Policy makers forecast rate increases in 2015.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1574 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-14-2014, 11:10 AM
The dollar fell to the lowest level in more than a month versus the yen after Federal Reserve officials said a worldwide economic slowdown may delay interest rate increases, damping demand for the U.S. currency. The main world currency added 0.1 percent to 106.95 yen from yestersay, after weakening to 106.76, a level that has not been reached since September 11. It was little changed at $1.2746 per euro. Japan´s currency traded at 136.33 per euro from 136.24. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2 percent to 1062.59. The index slid 0.8 percent last week after ending October 3 at 1078.65, the most since June 2010. Australia´s currency climbed from almost a four-year low as its biggest trading partner China reported better-than- forecast export growth and an unexpected pick-up in imports. The Australian dollar rose versus all expect one of its 31 major peers. The currency gained 1 percent to 0.8772 after sliding to 0.8643 on October 3, the lowest since July 2010. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi´s words to do “whatever it takes” with a bond buying plan to save the euro-area goes on trial before the European Union´s top judges today. The ECB announced the details of its bond- purchase plan in September 2012 as bets multiplied that the euro area would break apart and after Draghi´s promise to do whatever was needed to save the currency. The calming of financial markets that the still-untapped program produced helped the euro area emerge from its longest- ever recession in the first half of last year. Two years after its announcement, the ECB is gearing up to buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds to funnel credit to companies and households and fuel inflation of just below 2 percent.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1577 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-15-2014, 10:01 AM
The Swiss National Bank is about keep its policy for the franc in place until at least 2016 as central bankers in the surrounding euro area loosen policy further. The Swiss central bank set the cap...

PCMNewsdesk
10-16-2014, 12:53 PM
The dollar has a high risk of falling versus the yen and adding to its biggest slide in six months. The yen climbed for a sixth day against a basket of nine peers as futures signaled Asian stocks will drop after the Standard & Poor´s 500 Index touched a six-month low yesterday. The Australian dollar fell on speculation yesterday´s 1.3 percent advance was unwarranted. The dollar was little changed at 106.01 yen after dropping 1.1 percent yesterday, the biggest loss since April 8. It rose 0.1 percent to $1.2825 per euro after weakening 1.4 percent yesterday. Japan´s currency was at 135.94 per euro.
Speculation the Fed will raise rates next year as the economy improves had led to a record rally
in the U.S. currency. The advance started to reverse last week after minutes of Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed participants said growth “might be slower than they
expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated.” Officials also expressed concern about “further appreciation of the dollar.” The dolar has depreciated 0.3 percent in the past week, according to Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed nation currencies. The euro is up 0.9 percent and the yen has gained 1.6 percent, the best performer. The global economy faces its biggest test of confidence since the European sovereign debt crisis as investors fear it´s running out of engines. The worry is that five years since the world limped out of recession, central banks have virtually exhausted their stimulus arsenals if activity keeps fading. Japan and the euro area are throwing up fresh signs of weakness by the day and China is dragging instead of driving growth.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1603 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-17-2014, 10:50 AM
As traders weighed whether a slowing global growth will curb momentum in the U.S. economy, the dollar was poised for a weekly drop against 11 of its 16 major peers. Traders have pushed back expectations on when the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates, driving treasury yields lower. After New Zealand`s central bank erroneously republished September comments saying the currency`s level was unjustified and unsustainable, the NZD fell as much as 1 percent. The yen started trade on Friday well off its highs after another choppy session overnight where some calm returned to Wall Street thanks to encouraging U.S. data that helped take the edge off global growth jitters.
The euro rebounded to 136.35 yen from a 11-month low of 134.15, while the Australian dollar climbed to 93.25 yen from a seven-month trough of 91.72. Sentiment for the euro, however, remained fragile following yet another selloff in peripheral euro zone bonds overnight and a disappointing auction of Spanish debt. Data on Thursday showed deflation in Greece, Spain, Italy, Slovenia and Slovakia and the overall euro zone inflation stuck in the ECB's 'danger zone' for a 12th month. Investors seemed to have found some comfort in sterling as they sold the euro, helping the British currency gain broadly overnight. Sterling rose to 1.2568 euros, pulling up from a one month low of 1.2422 set on Wednesday. Against the greenback, it reached a high of $1.6095 as it recovered from an 11-month trough of $1.5875 plumbed earlier in the week. The euro gave back some of its Wednesday's gains on the greenback to be at $1.2811, off this week's high of $1.2887.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1622 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-20-2014, 10:54 AM
Last Friday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 1.6 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 1.3 percent. The ECB is going to take over as supervisor for the euro region’s top bank on November 4 and on October 26 it will announce which of Europe’s 130 largest bank have valued their assets properly and which have not, as well as whether banks need more capital to withstand another economic crash. Anticipation of the results have already affecting some bank shares.
The USD dropped for a second consecutive week for the first time since June as traders pushed out expectations for U.S. interest-rate increases to the end of 2015 with global economic growth faltering. The EUR/USD strengthened 1.1 perecnt to 1.2761, the largest weekly rose in six months. Beyond that investors sought a refuge which lead to a rising JPY versus its most major currencies. The USD/JPY declined to a five week low and was at 107.10. The EUR/JPY appreciated to 0.3 percent to 136.30 and the GBP/USD traded at 1.6080. Concerns that the global economy is loosing momentum roiled the stock and bond market last week. Today France’s finance and economy minsters will fly to Berlin and will try to convince the Germans of their plans to improve competitiveness and to press for more investment. Germany itself cut its forcast to 1.2 percent from 1.8 percent, and reduced its estimate for next year. China will set an economic growth target of about 7 percent for 2015, tolerating the weakest expansion in a generation as leaders fight against debt risks and imbalances. Nevertheless Bank of England’s chief economist said yesterday in an interview that investors have over-reacted to signs of economic slowdown.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1632 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)

PCMNewsdesk
10-21-2014, 11:24 AM
Last Friday the Dow Jones Index of shares climbed 0.1 percent and the Standard & Poor’s Index rose 0.9 percent. Investors pushed out expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates amid signs of slowing global growth. Dallas Fed President Ricahrdc Fisher said he continued to be hawkish on rates but wanted to be sensible. The USD dropped against higher- yielding counterparts and was little changed at 106.95 JPY. The EUR/USD climbed 0.3 percent to 1.2800 and the EUR/JPY strengthened 0.4 percent to 136.89. The AUD/USD gained 0.5 percent to 0.8788 and the NZD fetched 0.6 percent to 0.7967 USD. Yesterday Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that policy makers would maintain monetary easing until the inflation rate stabilizes at 2 percent. Each month Japan central bank buys about 7 trillion yen ($65.3 billion) in bonds each month.
Reports showed that U.K. home prices advanced 2.6 percent in October for a second month and consumer confidence increased. Furthermore U.K. government bonds went up for the first time in three days while economists estimated that the Bank of England’s first interest-rate increase since 2007 might happen in February and not next month. Beyond that the market forecasted that reports at the end of this week will shot U.K. gross domestic product expanded for a seventh consecutive quarter. This Thursday Minutes of BOE policy makers’ most recent meeting are going to be published. The GBP rallied 0.2 percent to 1.6139 USD and the EUR/GBP strengthened 0.1 percent to 0.7922. Meanwhile yesterday Germany and France sought to paper over deep differences about how to bolster a faltering European economy. Joint proposals should be unveiled by early December.


http://myforexforums.com/upload/do.php?img=1665 (http://myforexforums.com/upload/)