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Samirofi
08-05-2013, 12:25 AM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 5-9
Last week the Aussie dollar tumbled down while the Euro remained nearly unchanged against the USD. In the commodities market, silver and crude oil rallied while gold and natural gas declined. In the upcoming week several reports, decisions and events will unfold and may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: U.S non- manufacturing PMI, China’s CPI, Japan’s current account, BOJ monetary policy meeting, Australia’s trade balance, U.S and Canada’s trade balance reports, German Industrial production, Bank of England Carney Speaks, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of August 5th to August 9th regarding the U.S, Japan, China, Euro Area, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):


Monday, August 5th


00:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly report will pertain to June 2013. In the previous update, the seasonally adjusted retail sales slightly rose by 0.1% during May; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with commodities rates;


09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the previous report, this index rose to 56.9%; this index may affect the British Pound;


15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly update will refer to the developments in the non-manufacturing sector for July 2013. In the previous update, this index slipped to 52.2% – thus, the non-manufacturing is still expanding but at a slower rate than in the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;

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Tuesday, August 6th


02:30 – Australian Trade Balance: Thus upcoming report will pertain to June’s figures. In the last update, regarding May, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services rose to a $670 million surplus. The export of non-monetary gold increased by $135 million; if the gold exports will continue to increase in June, it might suggest a rise in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);


05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: In the latest rate decision of RBA it left the cash rate at 2.75% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to decline of the Aussie dollar. The current expectations are that RBA will cut the interest rate again by 0.25 percentage points, which is likely to keep the Aussie weak against leading currencies. In such an event the Australian dollar, which tends to be strongly correlated with oil and gold prices, may drag down commodities rates;


09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This update will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of June; in the previous report regarding May 2013 the index fell by 0.8% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;


13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for June will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the recent American trade balance update regarding May the goods and services deficit expanded to $45 billion;


13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding May 2013, exports slipped to 1.6% and imports decreased by 3.2%; as a result, the trade balance’s deficit fell from $951 million in April to $303 million in May; this report may affect the Canadian dollar which tends to be correlated with commodities;

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Wednesday, August 7th


10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will publish this quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation projection for 2013 and 2014;


10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will hold a press conference regarding the Inflation Report and the Bank’s projections for the economic growth in the coming years;


11:00 – German Industrial Production: The upcoming report will refer to July 2013. In the last update, the industrial production fell by 1% during June;


15:00 – Canada’s Ivey PMI: This report shows the diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers; in last month’s update, the index plummeted to 55.3. The report might affect the Canadian dollar;


Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will come out with its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held at the second week of July, the average rate reached 2.67% – the highest rate in recent months;


15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 2nd;

Tentative – Japan’s monetary policy meeting and press conference:Japan’s monetary policy meeting will be held on that day. BOJ members will decide on any shifts to the bank’s current asset purchase program. These decisions could affect the direction of the Japanese yen;

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Thursday, August 8th


Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance increased again to a $27.1 billion surplus; if the surplus will further rise, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is improving and thus may positively affect commodities;


00:50 – Japan Current Account: this monthly report will show the developments in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the direction of the Japanese Yen;


02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the last report regarding June 2013 the rate of unemployment rose to 5.7%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly rose by 10,300 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);


09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for July analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecasts of the EU progress;


13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 2nd; in the latest report the jobless claims fell by 19k to reach 326k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;


15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report regarding U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 2nd; in latest weekly update, natural gas storage rose by 59 Bcf to 2,845 Bcf;


Tentative – China’s CPI: during May, the Chinese inflation rate rose to an annual rate of 2.7%, which is still lower than China’s target inflation. The low inflation is another indication for China’s economic slowdown. If the inflation will continue to pick up, however, this may indicate China’s economic progress is warming up;

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Friday, August 9th


Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent developments in China’s new loans. Based on the recent report, the total loans sharply increased rose again; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;


01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;


06:30 –China’s Industrial Production: According to last month’s report, China production growth rate slipped to 8.9% in annual terms; if the growth rate will further fall it suggest China’s economy isn’t progressing as fast as it did;


08:45 – French Industrial Production: This upcoming report will pertain to July’s figures. In the latest update, the industrial production slipped by 0.4% during June;


Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly update will show the developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide during July 2013; this update will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;


Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: the upcoming monthly report will show a revised (as of May) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;


13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the latest employment update for June 2013, unemployment remained unchanged at 7.1%; the employment slipped by 0.4k during the month. The upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;

good luck - Khalil Abdolrahman :)

Samirofi
08-12-2013, 02:27 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 12-16


The commodities markets are starting to pull up: Last week leading commodities including gold and silver rallied. Further, leading currencies including Aussie dollar and Japanese yen also appreciated against the US dollar during last week. Will the US dollar continue to weaken? Will commodities further advance their rally? This week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: BOE rate decision, U.S core CPI and PPI, Philly fed survey, Japan’s GDP for the second quarter, U.S housing starts, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB CPI, U.S retail sales, U.S federal budget update, German ZEW economic sentiment, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of August 12th to August 16th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, Japan, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, August 12th

00:50 –Japan Second Quarter GDP 2013 (preliminary): During the first quarter of 2013, Japan’s GDP grew by 4.1% in annual terms. The current expectations are that the second quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms at a faster pace than in the preceding quarter; if the growth rate will continue to rise, this may positively affect commodities prices;

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report (http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html) will refer to July 2013; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the changes in U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding June (http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0613.pdf) the deficit fell by $116.5 billion; if the deficit will continue to contract, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision about future budget cuts;

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Tuesday, August 13th


00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan didn’t change it monetary policy. The minutes may offer insight regarding behind the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;


09:30 – GB CPI (July 2013): In the previous report regarding June 2013, the CPI increased again to an annual rate of 2.9%; if the inflation rate will continue to advance it may eventually affect the decision of BOE regarding changes to its monetary policy;


10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for July. In June, the ZEW indicator for Germany decreased to 36.3 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment will keep falling, the Euro will plausibly weakened against other currencies including the US dollar;


10:00 –EU Industrial Production: this report will show the monthly changes in the industrial production as of July; as of June, the production fell by 0.3%; this report may affect the euro/usd;


13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: the retail sales rose again by 0.6% from the last month; gasoline stations sales also increased by 0.7% in June compared to May 2013; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect U.S oil prices;

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Wednesday, August 14th


09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB had declined by 21.2k; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 7.8%;


09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: in the previous MPC meeting, the Bank left the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;


10:00 –EU Second Quarter GDP 2013 (preliminary): In the first quarter of 2013, the EU economy contracted by 0.2%. If the EU economy will continue to contract, this could drag down the Eur;


Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: the German government will have its monthly bond auction; in the last bond auction, which was held at the middle of July, the average rate reached 1.57% – its highest level since this year;


13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the developments in the PPI during July 2013, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ side. In the last report regarding June, this index for finished goods rose by 0.8% compared with May’s level and the core PPI by 0.2%; this news might affect commodities prices;



15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 9th;

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Thursday, August 15th


09:30 – GB Retails Sales (July 2013): This report shows the changes in the retails sales in Great Britain for July 2013. It may affect the path of the British Pound currency. In the previous report regarding June 2013, retails sales slightly rose by 0.2%;


13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 9th; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims rose by 5k to reach 333k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;


13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will refer to the main developments in the core consumer price index for July 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during June, the CPI rose by 0.5% (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) (month-over-month); the core CPI edged up by 0.2%; the core index increased over the past twelve months by 1.6%.


14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will present the shifts the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for June 2013. In the recent report regarding May 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $27.2 billion;


15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding July, the growth rate rose again from +12.5 in June to +19.8 in July. If the index will continue to recover, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the previous Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0713.cfm));


15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 9th;


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Friday, August 16th


10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the latest update the annual CPI rose to 1.6%, which is still below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will continue to rise, it could lower the odds of ECB cutting again its cash rate;


13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (June 2013): This report will refer to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of June. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding May 2013, manufacturing sales increased by 0.7%;


13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will come out with its U.S housing starts monthly update for July 2013; this report was historically linked withgold price – as housing starts falls, gold prices tended to rise the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the latest monthly report (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf), the adjusted annual rate reached 836,000 in June 2013, which was 9.9% below May’s rate;


13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during May building permits declined by 7.5% (M-o-M) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 911,000. If building permits will continue to dwindle, it may indicate that the U.S housing market’s recovery (from this aspect) is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));


14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous update, the sentiment index rallied to 83.9.


good - luck :)

Samirofi
08-19-2013, 10:37 AM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 19-23


The commodity markets are heating up this summer, while the forex market is cooling down. During last week, gold, silver, natural gas and oil bounced back and rallied. Will these commodities’ rally persist this week? This forthcoming week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: Minutes of the FOMC meeting, U.S new and existing home sales, minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting, Canada’s retail sales, China, France and Germany’s manufacturing PMI, GB GDP for the second quarter of 2013, Japan’s trade balance, Jackson Hall conference, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of August 19th to August 23rd referring to the recent developments in the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, Japan, China, Australia, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 19th

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In June 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit tumbled down by 23% compared to May, and reach 598 billion yen (roughly $6.04 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This is drop in deficit was due to the decline in imports (by 1.7%) and the rise in exports (by 1.1%). Japan is among the leading importers countries of commodities, including oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information regarding Japan’s developments in demand for goods and services;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its interest rate by 0.25pp to 2.50%; the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some additional information behind its latest decision; this news may affect the Australian dollar and consequently commodities prices;


Tuesday, August 20th

13:00 – German PPI: This report will refer to the monthly change in PPI for July 2013. Based on the recent report for June, the PPI remained unchanged. This report might affect the direction of the Euro, which is also correlated with commodities prices;


Wednesday, August 21st

09:30 – Great Britain Net borrowing: this report will refer to the monthly changes in the public sector net borrowing for July 2013; as of June 2013, the net borrowing reached £10.2 billion;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report shows the developments in U.S. existing home sales during July 2013; in the recent report regarding June 2013 the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million houses; if this trend will persist, it might affect the U.S dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 17th;

19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged, the prices of gold and silver rallied. The big question will remain whether the Fed will start tapering QE3 in the near future. The upcoming minutes might offer some insight behind the next move of the Fed and whether it will announce of tapering its asset purchase program in the September meeting. Considering the slowdown in growth of the job market, the low inflation, and the moderate sign of growth in other facets of the economy the Fed may decide to keep QE3 unchanged this year. In such a case, the recent rally of gold and silver prices may reach a halt;


Thursday, August 22nd

02:45 – China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index is based on a survey covering 800 companies in 20 industries in China; in the latest HSBC Manufacturing PMI survey referring to July 2013 the Manufacturing PMI fell again to 47.7; this index indicates China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting at a slightly faster rate than in June; if the index will keep contracting, this may adversely affect commodities and risk related currencies such as Aussie dollar;

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly report regarding July 2013, the German PMI rose to 50.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are expanding after they had contracted a month earlier. This report serves as an indicator to the economic development of the Euro Area’s leading economies’ manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities;

13:30 – Canada Retails Sales (June 2013): This report will pertain to the retails sales in Canada as of June. In the latest report regarding May 2013, retails sales rose by 1.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 17th; in the latest report the jobless claims fell by 15k to reach 335k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities prices;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 17th; in latest weekly update, natural gas storage rose again by 65 Bcf to 3,006 Bcf;

All Day – Jackson Hall Symposium: This will be a three day Symposium conducted by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City to be held in Jackson Hall Wyoming. The Symposium will be pertaining to the U.S monetary policy;


Friday, August 23rd

09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q2 2013: This report will show the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the second quarter of 2013; during the first quarter the GB economy expanded by 0.3% (Q-2-Q); in the first estimate, Q2 GDP expanded by 0.6%; if the growth rate will remain at the first estimate’s level or higher, it could positively affect GB pound;

13:00 – Canada’s core CPI: This report refers to the CPI and core consumer price index (controlling the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables) for July 2013. Based on the latest Canadian CPI report for June, the core CPI edged down by 0.2%. This report might affect the Canadian dollar, which is also strongly linked with crude oil prices;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to July 2013; in the latest report (opens pdf; for June), the sales of new homes slightly rose to an annual rate of 497,000 – a 8.3% gain (month- over-month); if the number of home sales will keep rising, it may suggest the housing market in the U.S continues to improving; this news may also affect the US dollar;mports

Good Luck :)

Samirofi
08-26-2013, 05:06 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 26-30


Major commodities including gold, silver and natural gas rallied again during last week. Equities markets also made a bit of comeback as major indexes including the S&P500 rose. In the forex market, however, there was a mixed trend as the Euro rallied against the USD while Aussie and Japanese yen fell against the USD. This week, several reports, speeches and events will could affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: Carney’ speech, U.S core durable goods report, China manufacturing PMI, U.S consumer confidence, Canada’s GDP, U.S’s GDP second quarter estimate, Germany’s employment situation, U.S pending home sales, German retail sales, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of August 26th to August 30th referring to U.S, China, Euro Area, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 26th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will refer to July 2013. This monthly report may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of June 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $496.7 billion; if this report will show another increase in new orders then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities prices;


Tuesday, August 27th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises the developments (on a monthly basis) of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of August. In the recent report for July 2013, the business climate index inched up from 105.9 in June to 106.2 in July; if this trend will continue, it might positively affect the Euro;

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the latest monthly update, for May, the consumer confidence index fell to 80.3 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the July index may change direction and rise; this report might affect commodities prices including the oil and natural gas;


Wednesday, August 28th

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate including past and future economic conditions (on a monthly basis) for August. In the latest report for July 2013, the climate index slightly rose to 7;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area for July 2013. In the previous June report, the annual growth rate for M3 declined to 2.3%; M1 fell to 7.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -1.6%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to fall and the growth rate of M1 and M3 decrease. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect the ECB rate decisions in the following months;

12:45 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will speak at the East Midlands Conference Centre, in Nottingham;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S for July; in the recent report, the pending home sales index slipped by 0.4% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the changes in U.S’s housing market; if the housing data will show additional decline in sales it may pull back the U.S dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 25th; the changes in stockpiles could affect the direction of crude oil price in the U.S;

02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly update shows the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the second quarter of 2013. As of the previous quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure tumbled down by 4.7% (Q-o-Q) and by 4.4% compared to the previous quarter in 2012. If this downward trend will continue, it may adversely affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be strongly correlated with major commodities;


Thursday, August 29th

08:55 – German Unemployment Rate: During last month the unemployment slipped; the developments in the German workforce could affect the Euro/USD currency pair;

13:30 – Second U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP rose by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2013. If the growth rate for the second quarter will be revised by a large margin, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 25th; in the latest report the jobless claims rose by 13k to 336k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report on U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 25th; this news may affect the direction of natural gas prices;


Friday, August 30th

07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly update will present the changes in German retail sales during July. In June 2013, retail sales changed direction and fell by 1.5% – lower than many had expected; if this report will show another drop in sales then it might weakened the Euro;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this monthly report measures the estimate to the Swiss economy in the coming months;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro members. According to the previous estimate, the annual CPI reached 1.6%, which is still much lower than the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation will start to pick up, it could indicate the EU economy is slowly picking up. These developments could influence the ECB when it’s time to decide on its interest rate; this news could affect the Euro/USD currency pair;

10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: This report estimates the progress of the EU economy from the labor point of view. Last month’s report showed the rate of unemployment remained flat at 12.1%, which is still a high rate. If this downward trend will persist, it could positively affect the Euro;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: this monthly update shows the developments in major industrial sectors for June 2013. In the latest report regarding May 2013, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.2%. This report may affect the direction of the Canadian dollar, which is strongly linked with major commodities rates;

13:30 – U.S Personal spending: this monthly report will refer to the shifts in income and outlays in the U.S during July; in the last report regarding June the personal income rose by 0.3%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised):University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the latest report, the sentiment index increased to 85.1;

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s report regarding July 2013 the Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding at a slightly faster pace; in the latest flash PMI report, the index rose to above the 50 point market. If in the upcoming report the PMI will keep rising, it could signal growth in China’s economic development. If the index will rise, this may positively affect leading commodities prices.


Good Luck :)

Samirofi
09-16-2013, 12:45 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 16-20


Leading commodities prices have changed direction and tumbled down during last week: Oil, gold and silver plummeted last week after they had rallied during most of August. The highly anticipated FOMC meeting will take place this week and could stir up the financial markets including forex, commodities and stocks. Will the FOMC start tapering QE3? How will the financial markets react to this news? Besides the FOMC meeting, there are additional reports and events that may affect the financial markets. These include: EU CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S core CPI, Philly fed survey, Japan’s trade balance, U.S housing starts, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB CPI, U.S existing home sales, minutes of RBA, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of September 16th to September 20th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.

All times GMT):

Monday, September 16th

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: According to the recent update the annual CPI remained at 1.6%, which is still below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will pick up, it could reduce the odds of ECB cutting again its cash rate;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly developments in the industrial production as of August; as of July, the production remained flat; this report may affect the USD currency;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate at 2.50%; the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest decision; this news may affect the Australian dollar and consequently oil and gold prices;

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Tuesday, September 17th

09:30 – GB CPI (August 2013): In the previous report regarding July 2013, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 2.8%; if the inflation rate continues to fall, it may eventually affect the decision of BOE regarding its monetary policy;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for August. In July, the ZEW indicator for Germany bounced back to 42 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment will keep improving, the Euro will plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (July 2013): This report refers to manufacturing sales in Canada as of July. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly linked with commodities. In the recent report regarding June 2013, manufacturing sales decreased by 0.5%;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertains to the main developments in the core consumer price index for August 2013. Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during July, the CPI inched up by 0.2% (month-over-month); the core CPI also edged up by 0.2%; the core index increased over the past twelve months by 1.7%.

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will present the changes the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for July 2013. In the recent report regarding June 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $66.9 billion;

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Wednesday, September 18th

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the recent MPC meeting, the Bank kept the rate flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will present how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for August 2013; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold prices tended to decline the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the recent monthly report, the adjusted annual rate reached 896,000 in July 2013, which was 5.9% above June’s rate;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the latest update, during June building permits rose by 2.7% (M-o-M) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 943,000. If building permits continue to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market’s recovery (from this aspect) is pulling up (the recent U.S building permits update);

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 14th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The highly anticipated sixth FOMC meeting this year will take place during September 17th and 18th. The FOMC will decide whether it will start taper QE3. Many analysts expect the FOMC to start taper its long term treasury bonds purchase program by $15 billion a month. The total asset purchase program, in this case, will remain at $70 billion a month. Considering the little effect the treasury bonds purchase program has had on the economy and the slow progress of the labor market, the FOMC might decide to take different measures to stimulate the economy, such as revising up the inflation target, increasing the mortgage backed securities purchase program, or pegging the long term interest rates (10 years) at 2.5%. If the Fed introduces new measures, this could drag back down the USD. If the Fed only reduces QE3, it is likely to pull up USD and drag down gold and silver prices. If the Fed won’t introduce any changes to its monetary policy, gold and silver prices might bounce back. In any case, the FOMC’s statement, outlook and press conference that follow are likely to move the forex, stocks and commodities markets;

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In July 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit bounced back by 42.3% compared to June, and reach 944 billion yen (roughly $9.48 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This rise in deficit was due to the increase in imports (by 2.7%) and the fall in exports (by 1.8%). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and silver; its trade balance could offer information regarding Japan’s changes in demand for goods and services;

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Thursday, September 19th

08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: The Swiss National Bank will come out with its Libor rate decision; this decision could affect not only currencies markets but also commodities markets, assuming, the bank changes its Libor rate;

09:30 – GB Retails Sales (August 2013): This report presents the developments in the retails sales in Great Britain for August 2013. It may affect the British Pound currency. In the recent report regarding July 2013, retails sales increased by 1.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 14th; in the recent report the jobless claims plunged by 31k to reach 292k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report presents the developments in U.S. existing home sales during August 2013; in the previous report regarding July 2013 the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million houses; if this trend persist, it might affect the U.S dollar;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the latest survey regarding August, the growth rate fell from +19.8 in July to +9.3 in August. If the index continues to slowdown, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of September 14th;

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Friday, September 20th

Tentative – Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks: Bank of Japan Governor will speak at the Kisaragi-kai meeting, in Tokyo. Kuroda’s words could influence traders especially considering the recent weakening of Japanese yen in recent weeks;

13:00 – Canada’s core CPI: This report pertains to the CPI and core consumer price index (controlling the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables) for August 2013. According to the latest Canadian CPI report for July, the core CPI remained unchanged This report might affect the Canadian dollar, which is also strongly correlated with oil rates;

Samirofi
09-24-2013, 12:14 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 23-27


Despite the high volatility in the commodities markets, gold and silver didn’t do much on a weekly scale as both precious metals rallied; on the other hand, oil and natural gas changed direction and fell during last week. The highly expected FOMC meeting didn’t result in big changes in policy as the FOMC didn’t taper QE3 for now. Perhaps in December the FOMC will announce of a change in policy. I remain skeptic. Until then, many news items and speeches will unfold during the week including: U.S core durable goods report, China manufacturing PMI, ECB president speech, U.S consumer confidence, U.S’s GDP second quarter estimate, Germany’s manufacturing PMI, U.S pending and new home sales, German business climate, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of September 23rd to September 27th referring to U.S, China, Euro Area, Canada, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):
Monday, September 23rd
German Federal Elections: The elections for the German Federal Parliament will take place. If the incumbent Chancellor Merkel remains in office along with its party, this news won’t stir up the forex markets across Europe;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): This is HSBC’s flash manufacturing PMI survey for September. Last month’s report regarding August 2013 the Manufacturing PMI rallied to 50.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding. If in the upcoming report the PMI continues to rise, it could signal growth in China’s economy. This may also positively affect commodities prices.
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the latest monthly report regarding August 2013, the France’s PMI slipped to 49.7 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a slightly faster pace. This report serves signals the changes in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
14:00 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will testify on EU’s economy at the quarterly hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels. If Draghi provides in this hearing some insight behind ECB’s monetary policy and future steps, this testimony could affect the Euro;
16:15 – SNB Chairman Jordan’s Speech: The Swiss National Bank Chairman will give a speech; if he announces or implies of any potential changes to the monetary policy of the SNB it could affect the Swiss Franc;

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Tuesday, September 24th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises the shifts (on a monthly basis) of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of September. In the previous report regarding August 2013, the business climate index rose from 106.2 in July to 107.5 in August; if this trend persists, it might positively affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada Retails Sales (July 2013): This report will refer to the retails sales in Canada as of July. In the previous report regarding June 2013, retails sales fell by 0.8%;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: Based on the latest monthly report, for August, the consumer confidence index bounced back and rose to 81.5 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the September index may keep rising; this report might affect commodities prices including the oil and natural gas;

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Wednesday, September 25th
07:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey projects Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for September. In the latest report for August 2013, the climate index slightly fell to 6.9;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will pertain to August 2013. This monthly report may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of July 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined to $485 billion; if this report shows another drop in new orders, then it could pull down not only the USD but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to August 2013; in the recent report (opens pdf; for July), the sales of new homes sharply fell to an annual rate of 394,000 – a 13.4% drop (month- over-month); if the number of home sales keep falling, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is cooling down; this news may also affect theUS dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 20th; the shifts in stockpiles could affect the path of crude oil price in the U.S;

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Thursday, September 26th
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of August 2013. In the latest July report, the annual growth rate for M3 inched down to 2.2%; M1 declined to 7.1%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -1.4%. This news suggests the EU inflation is declining again as loans continue to tumble and the growth rate of M1 and M3 diminishes. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect the ECB rate decisions in the coming months;
09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will present any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. Based on the latest update, the deficit expanded to 14.5 billion pounds. This report might affect the direction of the British Pound;
13:30 – Last U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate (final): This will be the third and last estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the recent estimate the U.S GDP rose by 2.5% in the second quarter of 2013. If in the last estimate, the growth rate for the second quarter is substantially revised, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities rates;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 20th; in the latest report the jobless claims rose by 15k to 294k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S for August; in the recent report, the pending home sales index fell by 1.3% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the developments in U.S’s housing market; if the housing data shows additional decline in sales, it may pull back the U.S dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly update on U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 20th; this news may affect natural gas prices;

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Friday, September 27th
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report estimates the progress of the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
10:00 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will give a speech at BocconiUniversity, in Milan. His words could move the markets if they refer to any potential changes in ECB’s policy;
13:30 – U.S Personal spending: This monthly report will pertain to the shifts in income and outlays in the U.S during August; in the last report regarding June the personal income edged up by 0.1%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised):University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could provide information regarding the recent changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the latest report, the sentiment index decreased to 82.1;

Samirofi
10-07-2013, 05:14 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for October 7-11
Last week, leading commodities including oil and silver rallied. Conversely, other commodities such as gold and natural gas declined. The uncertainty around the progress of the U.S economy as the government shutdown continues may keep commodities moving in different directions. In the foreign exchange market, leading currencies including Euro, Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar appreciated against the US dollar during last week. Looking forward, will the US dollar continue to depreciate? What’s next for leading commodities? This week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: Minutes of FOMC meeting, Japan’s current account, China’s new loans, U.S consumer sentiment, Mario Draghi speaks, GB manufacturing production, Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks, OPEC and IEA monthly oil reports, Canada and Australia’s employment reports, China’s trade balance, German factory orders, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of October 7th to October 11th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, Euro Area, China, Japan, and Great Britain.All times GMT):


Monday, October 7th


08:00 – Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves: Swiss National Bank will provide an update on its reserves. In the previous update, total reserves reached 434.2 billion CHF;
00:50 – Japan Current Account: This monthly report will refer to the shifts in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;


Tuesday, October 8th


08:15 – Switzerland’s CPI: In the pervious report, the consumer price index slipped by 0.1%; this was the second consecutive in which the CPI declined; if the CPI continues to fall, this may eventually affect the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy;
11:00 – German Factory Orders: The upcoming report will refer to September 2013. In the last update, the factory orders fell by 2.7% during August;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding July 2013, exports declined by 0.6% and imports grew by 0.6%; as a result, the trade balance’s deficit widened from $460 million in June to $931 million in July; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be correlated with commodities;
17:00 – SNB Chairman Jordan’s Speech: The Swiss National Bank Chairman will give a speech; if he announces or implies of any potential changes to the bank’s monetary policy, this could affect the Swiss Franc;
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan left this month its monetary policy unchanged. The minutes may offer some insight referring to the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;


Wednesday, October 9th


09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This update will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of August; in the previous report regarding July 2013 the index inched up by 0.2% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;
11:00 – German Industrial Production: The forthcoming report will pertain to September 2013. In the last update, the industrial production fell by 1.7% during August;
Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held at the second week of September, the average rate reached 2.95% – the highest rate since mid-2011;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will provide its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 4th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: In the September FOMC meeting the Fed surprised the markets as it had decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged and not to taper its QE3 program. The no-tapering decision had short term effect on the prices of gold and silver but the in the bonds market long term treasuries rates fell down. Some suspect the decision was close and could have gone in the other direction (i.e. tapering QE3). The forthcoming minutes might offer some additional information behind the Fed’s recent decision and how close the decision was. This could also offer some perceptive behind the next two FOMC meetings. This report could affect not only precious metals but also forex markets;
22:00 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will give a speech at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, in Cambridge. The title of the speech is “The Malcolm Wiener Lecture”;



Thursday, October 10th


02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding August 2013 the rate of unemployment inched up to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly decreased by 10,800 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);
Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent developments in China’s new loans. Based on the previous report, the total loans changed direction and rose; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;
09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for September analyzes the economic changes of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for October 2013; the MPC will also state of any new shifts to its asset purchase pogrom; as of September, BOE kept its rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 4th; in the previous report the jobless claims slightly rose by 1k to reach 308k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of October 4th;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for September 2013; this update will also refer to the shifts in the production of OPEC countries during the previous month; this news may affect oil prices;
17:00 – Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks: Bank of Japan Governor will give a speech the Bretton Woods Committee 2013 International Council Meeting, in WashingtonDC. Considering the recent high movement of the Japanese in recent weeks, his words could influence traders;
17:20 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will give another speech this week at the at the Economic Club of New York;


Friday, October 11th


13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the latest employment report for August 2013, unemployment remained inched down to 7.1%; the employment rose by 59.2k during last month. The upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the latest monthly report, China’s trade balance rose to a $28.5 billion surplus; if the surplus further rises, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of September) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index fell to 76.8;

Samirofi
11-11-2013, 06:32 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 11-15
Major commodities prices have mostly decreased during last week including Oil (Brent), gold and silver prices. The recent U.S GDP and NF payroll report were better than anticipated, which contributed to the rally of the US dollar. Moreover, the decision of ECB to lower its cash rate to 0.25% has also strengthened the USD. The latest decision of S&P to downgrade France’s credit rate is also likely to weaken the Euro early next week. Will the US dollar continue to rally? How will this trend affect commodities prices? Here are the main reports, speeches and events that could stir up the markets next week: U.S industrial production, German GDP for the third quarter, BOE inflation report, China’s new loans, Japan’s current account, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB climate count, Bernanke and speaks, U.S federal budget balance, Yellen testifies, ECOFIN summit, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of November 11th to November 15th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, GB, Canada, Japan, and Great Britain.


Monday, November 11th


00:50 – Japan Current Account: This monthly update will refer to the developments in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;


Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the latest update, the total loans rose for the second consecutive month; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;



Tuesday, November 12th


09:30 – GB CPI (October 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding September 2013, the CPI remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.7%; if the inflation rate resumes its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;



Wednesday, November 13th


09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of previous month, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 41.7k; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 7.7%;


10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2013 and 2014;


10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will give a speech in a press conference along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;


15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 8th;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report (http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html) will refer to October 2013; this report suggests the government debt growth and thus may affect the shifts in U.S dollar. In the latest report regarding September the deficit declined by $75 billion; if the deficit continues to contract, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision about next year’s budget cuts;


00:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will talks to educators in Washington, D.C.;


Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the previous auction, which was held at the second week of October, the average rate reached 2.66% – the lowest rate since August 2013;



Thursday, November 14th


06:30 –German Third Quarter GDP 2013: In the second quarter of 2013, Germany’s economy grew by 0.7%. The progress of the German economy is likely to affect the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may adversely affect Euro;


09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for October analyzes the economic shifts of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU;



09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: In the previous month, retail sales in Great Britain slightly rose by 0.6%; this report could affect the British pound;


13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 8th; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims fell by 9k to reach 336k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;


All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will take place in Brussels as the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may refer to the latest changes in Europe and the potential ramifications of the latest ECB rate drop;


13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report regarding August 2013, exports rose by 1.8% and imports grew by 2.1%; as a result, the trade balance’s deficit widened from $1.2 billion in July to $1.3 million in August; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;


13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for September will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance (http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm) update regarding June the goods and services deficit expanded to $38.8 billion;


15:00 – Yellen’s Testimony: Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will testify in front of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate. This will be her confirmation hearing for her nomination of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve position;


15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of November 8th;



Friday, November 15h


All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will convene and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;


10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the recent update, the annual CPI declined to 1.1%, which is well below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation continues to fall, it could affect ECB’s monetary policy;


13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (September 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of September. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding August 2013, manufacturing sales fell by 0.2%;


14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of October; as of September, the production increased by 0.6%; this report may affect the USD currency;


Good Lucl :)

Samirofi
11-17-2013, 06:45 PM
Edit...

Samirofi
11-18-2013, 11:47 AM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 18-22


The financial markets remained relatively calm last week: The prices of major commodities including gold and crude oil moved in an unclear trend. In the forex market, the Euro and Canadian dollar rallied against the USD, while the Aussie dollar and Japanese yen declined. The markets might start to stir up again next week as there are many news items and reports that could affect the direction of forex and commodities prices including: Bernanke’s speech, minutes of the FOMC meeting, U.S CPI and PPI, German Ifo business climate, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s trade balance, Canada’s retail sales, GB GDP for the third quarter, RBA’s governor’s speech, Japan’s monetary policy meeting, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI flash reports, Philly fed index, U.S and Canada’s retail sales updates, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of November 18th to November 22nd regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, November 18th
09:00 – Euro Area Current Account: In the latest report, the gap in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers grew to 17.4 billion Euros. This report could also indicate the recent changes in the progress of the EU economy;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for September 2013. In the recent report regarding August 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $8.9 billion;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate flat at 2.50%; the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities rates;

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Tuesday, November 19th
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for October. In September, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 52.8 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to increase, the Euro will plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in September 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit expanded by 33% compared to August, and reach 1,091 billion yen (roughly $11.13 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This sharp gain in deficit was due to the decline in exports (by 0.3%) and the rise in imports (by 3.8%). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s shifts in demand for goods and services;
00:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will give a speech at the National Economists Club Annual Dinner: Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture; the title of the speech is Communication and Monetary Policy. He is likely to relay his message of the importance of the Fed keeping the public informed of its future monetary plan. This speech could drag down the prices of gold and silver if the Chairman refers to potential plans of pushing back up the tapering of QE3 to the last FOMC meeting of the year;

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Wednesday, November 20th
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank left the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertains to the main changes in the core consumer price index (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) for October 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during September, the CPI edged up by 0.2% (month-over-month); the core CPI inched up again by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to October; in the previous report regarding September, retail sales inched down by 0.1% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.4%; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect U.S oil prices;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during October 2013; in the last report regarding September 2013 the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 16th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Back in October, the FOMC meeting ended with no major news or change to its monetary policy. The FOMC didn’t hold a press conference following the October statement. The market reaction was very mild. The main issue remains the uncertainty around the future steps of the FOMC vis-à-vis its asset purchase program that continues to push precious metals prices in different direction. The current belief is that the Fed will hold off tapering QE3 until 2014. But some speculate the tapering could be announced at the end of 2013 at the last FOMC meeting of the year. The upcoming minutes might shed some light on this issue, which could stir up the markets again;
21:15 –Governor Poloz speaks: The Governor of Bank of Canada is due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem, before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce, in Ottawa; his words could affect the direction of the Canadian dollar;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for November. Last month’s report regarding October 2013 the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.9 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is growing but at a slightly slower pace. If in the upcoming update the PMI index changes direction and rises, it could signal progress in China’s economy. This may also positively affect commodities prices;
Tentative – Japan’s monetary policy meeting and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;

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Thursday, November 21st
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly report regarding October 2013, the Germany’s PMI inched up to 51.5 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing but at a slightly faster pace. France’s PMI inched down to 49.4. This report serves signals to the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:05 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to deliver a speech titled “The Australian Dollar: Thirty Years of Floating” at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, in Sydney; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 16th; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims slipped by 2k to reach 339k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side, will refer to October 2013. In the previous report (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) regarding September, this index for finished goods slightly fell by 0.1% compared with Augusts’ level and the core PPI inched up by 0.1%; this news might affect the USD;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding October, the growth rate fell from +22.3 in September to +19.8 in October. If the index continues to fall, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0913.cfm));
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 16th;

=================================================
Friday, November 25th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of November. In the last report regarding October 2013, the business climate index inched up from 107.7 in September to 107.4 in October; if this trend continues, it might adversely affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada CPI: According to the last report, the annual core CPI rose to 1.3% and the CPI increased to 1.1% in the past twelve months; if the inflation continues to rise, this may affect the BOC’s monetary policy;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (September 2013): This report will refer to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of September. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding August 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 0.4%;

Good Luck :)

Samirofi
11-25-2013, 05:27 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 25-29


During last week, several leading commodities prices including gold and silver declined. Their recent tumble coincided with the recovery of the US dollar against leading currencies such as Aussie dollar, Japanese yen and Canadian dollar. In the upcoming week several reports and speeches may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: U.S housing starts, BOJ minutes of last meeting, GB’s GDP for the third quarter, U.S pending home sales, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, German retail sales, U.S consumer confidence, Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey, Canada’s GDP by industry, BOE Governor Carney Speaks and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of November 25th to November 29th referring to the U.S, Japan, Euro Area, China, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):
Monday, November 25th
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report (http://www.realtor.org/topics/pending-home-sales) presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during October; in the last update, the pending home sales index tumbled again by 5.6% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the slowdown in the U.S housing market; if the housing data shows additional decline in the index, it may drag down the U.S dollar;
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan left this month its monetary policy without any changes. The minutes may offer some insight referring to the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;

Tuesday, November 26th
10:00 – Great Britain Inflation report hearing: In these hearings BOE Governor is expected to testify and refer to the British inflation and the bank’s economic outlook in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for September 2013; this report was historically linked withgold price – as housing starts increased, gold prices tended to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the recent monthly report (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf), in August 2013, the adjusted annual rate reached 891,000, which was 0.9% above the previous month’s housing starts pace;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the recent update, during August, building permits fell by 3.8% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 918,000. If building permits continue to fall, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is cooling down (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last monthly report, for October, the consumer confidence index plummeted to 71.2 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the November index may further decline; this report might weaken the USD;

Wednesday, November 27th
09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey projects Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for November. In the latest report for October 2013, the climate index slightly fell to 7;
09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q3 2013: This report will present the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the third quarter of 2013; during the second quarter the GB economy grew by 0.7% (Q-2-Q); in the early estimate, the second quarter GDP expanded by 0.7%; if the growth rate remains unchanged or very close to the first estimate, it could have little effect on the GB pound;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 24th; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims decreased by 21k to reach 323k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding October may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of September 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $234.3 billion; if this report shows another gain in new orders, then it could rally not only the USD but also commodities;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 24th; the report will also show the changes in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 24th;

Thursday, November 28th
All day – Germany’s CPI (preliminary report):Germany’s CPI is among the factors that affects the ECB’s rate decision. Last month’s report showed a decline in the CPI by 0.2%. If this trends continues, it could indicate the German economy isn’t heating up;
08:55 – German Unemployment Rate: Last month the unemployment slightly rose by 2k; the developments in the German workforce could affect the Euro/USD currency pair;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of October 2013. In the latest September report (http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/stats/md/html/index.en.html), the annual growth rate for M3 slipped to 2.1%; M1 fell to 6.6%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -1.4%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to contract and the growth rate of M1 and M3 declines. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect future ECB rate decisions;
10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will give a speech in a press regarding the Financial Stability Report, in London;
13:30 – Canada’s Current Account: This update presents the changes in the gap between imported and exported goods and services, investment income, and current transfers during the last quarter. In the previous update, the deficit in the current account reached 14.6 billion Canadian dollar – a rise in deficit from the preceding quarter;

Friday, November 29th
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sale: This monthly update provides an estimate for Germany’s retail sales in the past month. In the past report, retail sales slipped by 0.4% – lower than expected. If retail sales continue to fall, it could indicate Germany’s economy isn’t progressing, which could pressure down the Euro;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report projects the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for September 2013. In the last update regarding August 2013, the real gross domestic product slightly rose by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of October, the Manufacturing PMI slightly rose for fifth consecutive month to 51.4 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slightly faster rate; in the last flash PMI report (by HSBC), the index fell to 50.4. If in the upcoming report the PMI start to fall, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;

Samirofi
12-16-2013, 02:42 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for December 16-20


The financial markets remain poised for the upcoming FOMC meeting, in which it will be decided whether the FOMC would announce of tapering QE3. The current expectations from analysts are that the Fed is likely to do so and start cutting down on its pace of asset purchase program. Besides the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, several reports, decisions and speeches will take place this week including: Bernanke’s speech, minutes of the FOMC meeting, U.S CPI, German Ifo business climate, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s trade balance, BOE governor Carney speaks, U.S GDP for the third quarter, RBA’s governor’s speech, RBA’s minutes of monetary policy meeting, GB climate count, Euro group summits, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI reports, Philly fed index, Canada’s retail sales, ECB President’s speech, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of December 16th to December 20th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, December 16th

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for December. Last month’s report regarding November 2013 the Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.4 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is growing but at a slightly slower rate. If in the upcoming update the PMI index continues to fall, it could signal the progress in China’s economy is slowing down. This may also affect commodities prices;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly report regarding November 2013, the Germany’s PMI rose to 52.5 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing at a slightly faster pace. France’s PMI fell to 47.8. This report serves signals to the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
14:00 – Draghi’s Testimony: ECB President will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the changes the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for October 2013. In the recent report regarding September 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $25.5 billion;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly changes in the industrial production as of November; as of October, the production slipped by 0.1%; this report may affect the USD currency;


Tuesday, December 17th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%; the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its recent decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities rates;
09:30 – GB CPI (November 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding October 2013, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 2.2%; if the inflation rate continues its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for November. In October, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 54.6 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to rise, the Euro will plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;
10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the recent report, the annual CPI declined to 0.7%, which is well below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation continues to decline, it could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may refer to the latest developments in Europe;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (October 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of October. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding September 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 0.6%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refers to the main changes in the core consumer price index (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) for November 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during October, the CPI inched down by 0.1% (month-over-month); the core CPI inched up again by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
15:30 –BOE Governor Carney Testifies: Governor Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London;
21:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in October 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit slightly contracted to 1,071 billion yen (roughly $10.4 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s changes in demand for goods and services;

Wednesday, December 18th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the developments (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of December. In the last report regarding November 2013, the business climate index rose to 109.3 in October;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of previous month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 41.7k; the rate of unemployment inched down to 7.6%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank kept the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for October 2013; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold tends to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report the housing starts data weren’t released;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during October, building permits rose by 6.2% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1.034,000. If building permits continue to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is reheating (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 14th;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The highly anticipated final FOMC meeting for this year will take place during December 17th and 18th. The FOMC will decide whether it will start tapering QE3. Many analysts expect the FOMC will announce the tapering of its long term treasury bonds purchase program by $15 billion a month. In such an event, the total asset purchase program, in this case, would remain at $70 billion a month. Considering the little effect the treasury bonds purchase program has had on the economy and the slow progress of the labor market, the FOMC might decide to take different measures to stimulate the economy, such as raising the inflation target, increasing the mortgage backed securities purchase program, or pegging the long term interest rates (10 years) at 2.5%. If the Fed reduces QE3, it is might pull up USD and drag down (for a short period) gold and silver prices. If the Fed won’t introduce any changes to its monetary policy, gold and silver prices might bounce back. In any case, the FOMC’s statement, outlook and press conference that follow are likely to move the forex, stocks and commodities markets;


Thursday, December 19th

09:00 – Euro Area Current Account: In the previous report, the gap in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers shrunk to 13.7 billion Euros. This report could also indicate the recent developments in the progress of the EU economy;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: In the last month, retail sales in Great Britain fell by 0.7%; this report could affect the British pound;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 14th; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims sharply rose by 68k to reach 368k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during November 2013; in the last report regarding October 2013 the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding November, the growth rate fell from +19.8 in October to +6.5 in November. If the index continues to fall, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0913.cfm));
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 14th;


Friday, December 20th

09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. Based on the latest update, the deficit contracted to 13 billion pounds. This report might affect the direction of the British Pound;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: In the previous report, manufacturing sales rose by 0.2%;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (October 2013): This report will refer to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of October. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding September 2013, manufacturing sales remained unchanged;
13:30 – Final U.S GDP 3Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm) rose by 3.6% in the third quarter of 2013. If the growth rate were to be revised up again, this might positively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
Tentative – Japan’s monetary policy meeting and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;

Samirofi
12-23-2013, 03:53 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for December 23-27


During last week, the markets moved in high gear as the anticipated FOMC meeting concluded with a mini-tapering of $10 billion so that next month’s QE3 will only be of $75 billion LTS and MBS. Moreover, the FOMC also assured the markets that it will maintain the low interest rates until the end of 2015. This news had some adverse effect on gold and silver. The US dollar also reacted and rallied against leading currencies including Euro and Aussie dollar. This week, however, the Christmas holiday is likely to keep the volume of trade very low; this in turn, could result in high volatility or very low volatility in the financial markets especially in commodities. In the upcoming week several reports may affect the markets; these include: U.S new home sales, BOJ minutes of last meeting, U.S durable goods, Canada’s GDP, U.S jobless claims, U.S consumer confidence, and EIA oil and natural gas weekly reports. Here is a breakdown for the week of December 23rd to December 27th referring to the U.S, Japan, and Canada.

(All times GMT):

Monday, December 23rd
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for October 2013. In the last update regarding September 2013, the real gross domestic product inched up by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
13:30 – U.S Personal spending: This monthly report will refer to the changes in income and outlays in the U.S during November; in the last report regarding October the personal income slightly rose by 0.3%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised):University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 75.1;


Tuesday, December 24th
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding November may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of October 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods fell to $486.9 billion; if this report shows another drop in new orders, then it could drag down not only the USD but also commodities;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to November 2013; in the last report (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf) (opens pdf; for October), the sales of new homes sharply rose to an annual rate of 444,000 – a 25.4% rise (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep increasing, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is reheating; this news may also affect theUS dollar;



Wednesday, December 25th
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan kept this month its monetary policy unchanged. The minutes may offer some insight regarding the bank’s future plans; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;


Thursday, December 26th
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 22nd; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims increased by 10k to reach 379k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;


Friday, December 27th
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 22nd; the report will also show the changes in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 22nd;

Good Luck :)

Samirofi
01-13-2014, 03:47 PM
Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for January 13-17


The financial markets heated up as most stocks markets and commodities rallied during last week. The lower than expected number of jobs added in the U.S during December, according to latest NF payroll report, didn’t stop commodities and stocks to rise on Friday. This week several reports, decisions and speeches will take place including: Bernanke’s speech, U.S housing starts, Japan’s current account, GB CPI, EU industrial production, Australia’s employment report, U.S CPI and PPI, BOC Business Outlook Survey, U.S federal budget, China new loans, U.S Philly fed index, German CPI, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of January 13th to January 17th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, January 13th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will refer to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the previous update, the total loans fell for the first time in three months; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;
15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic outlook. This report could also reflect the potential changes in BOC’s monetary policy;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report (http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html) will refer to December 2013; this report shows the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the previous report regarding November the deficit rose by $135 billion; if the deficit continues to widen, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;
00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the shifts in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;


Tuesday, January 14th

09:30 – GB CPI (December 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding November 2013, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 2.1%; if the inflation rate continues its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of December; as of November, the production fell by 1.1%; this report may affect the Euro currency;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to December; in the last report regarding November, retail sales slightly rose by 0.7% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.4%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could suggest the developments in demand for gasoline;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to December 2013. In the last report (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) regarding November, this index for finished goods slightly fell by 0.1% compared with November’s level; the core PPI inched up by 0.1%; this news might affect the USD;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding November 2013 the rate of unemployment inched up to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 21,000 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/6202.0));


Wednesday, January 15th

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for December analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during December 2013; this update will also pertain to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 10th;


Thursday, January 16th

07:00 – German Final CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI slightly rose by 0.2% during November, and the current annual rate is 1.3%. The changes in Germany’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refers to the main shifts in the core consumer price index (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) for December 2013. Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during November, the CPI remained flat; the core CPI inched up again by 0.2%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 10th; in the latest report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims fell again by 15k to reach 330k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the changes the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for November 2013. In the recent report regarding October 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $35.4 billion;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding December, the growth rate slightly rose from +7 in November to +7 in December. If the index further declines, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0913.cfm));
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 10th;
16:10 –Bernanke’s Speech: The exiting Chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to give a speech titled “The Fed Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow” at the Brookings Institution, in WashingtonDC;


Friday, January 17th

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.3%; this report could affect the British pound;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for December 2013; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold tends to decline the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts grew by 22.7% during November to reach over 1.09 million houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during November, building permits slipped by 3.1% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1,007,000. If building permits pick up, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is reheating (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This update will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during December; as of November, the production rose by 1.1%; this report may affect the US dollar;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index sharply rose to 82.5;

Samirofi
01-20-2014, 03:05 PM
Financial Market Forecast for January 20-24


The prices of leading commodities didn’t move much in the past week. On the other hand, the US dollar sharply appreciated against leading currencies such as Euro, Japanese yen and Aussie dollar during last week. During the upcoming week several reports, decisions and events will come to fruition including: German PPI, China’s GDP report, German Ifo business climate, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s rate decision, U.S manufacturing PMI, BOC monetary policy report and rate decision, GB climate count, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI reports, Canada’s retail sales, Australia’s CPI, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of January 20th to January 24th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.
(All times GMT):


Monday, January 20th

03:00 –China Fourth Quarter GDP 2013: In the third quarter of 2013, China grew by 7.8% in annual terms; China’s economy grew by 7.5% in the second quarter of 2013. The current expectations are that the fourth quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms by a similar rate to the previous quarter; if the growth rate further rises, this may positively affect commodities prices;
05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: Based on the recent monthly report, China industrial production slightly fell to an annual rate of 10%; if the growth rate rises again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing faster;
07:00 – German PPI: In the previous update, the German PPI slipped by 0.1%; the progress if Germany’s inflationary pressures could affect ECB’s monetary policy including the monthly rate decision;


Tuesday, January 21st

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for December. In November, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 62 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to rally, the Euro could plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (November 2013): In the previous report regarding November 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 1%;
00:30 – Australia’s CPI for Q4 2013: This quarterly report will refer to the developments in the consumer price index. In the last report regarding the third quarter of 2013, the CPI rose to 1.2% compared to the second quarter and reached a growth rate of 2.2% compared to Q3 2012; this report could affect the Aussie dollar which is correlated with commodities prices;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of November) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;


Wednesday, January 22nd

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 36.7k; the rate of unemployment edged down to 7.4%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank kept the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will decide on its overnight rate decision – the rate is currently set at 1%. The BOC may leave its policy unchanged and maintain its interest rate at its current level; the economic developments in Canada might prompt BOC to eventually reduce its cash rate;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly monetary policy report and will also have a press conference; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for January. Last month’s report regarding December 2013 the Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is growing but at a slightly slower pace. If in the upcoming update the PMI index continues to decline, it could signal the progress in China’s economy is slowing down. This may also affect commodities prices;


Thursday, January 23rd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly report regarding December 2013, the Germany’s PMI increased again to 54.2 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing at a slightly faster rate. France’s PMI slipped to 47.1. This report serves signals to the changes in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:00 – Euro Area Current Account: In the last report, the gap in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers expanded to 21.8 billion Euros;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (November 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of November. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the last report regarding October 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 0.4%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 17th; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims slipped by 2k to reach 326k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
14:00 –U.S flash manufacturing PMI: This report will show a flash of the monthly changes in the manufacturing sectors during January; as of December, the manufacturing PMI inched up to an index of 54.4;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during December 2013; in the last report regarding November 2013 the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.90 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 17th;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 17th;


Friday, January 24th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly update will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for December; in the previous report, the core CPI inched down by 0.1%;

Samirofi
01-27-2014, 03:10 PM
Financial Markets Forecast for January 27-31


The forex and commodities markets demonstrated high volatility during the past week This week several reports will be released and may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: FOMC meeting, U.S new and pending home sales, U.S GDP for the fourth quarter, EU’s employment report, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, U.S consumer confidence, GB GDP for the fourth quarter, oil and gas EIA weekly update, ECOFIN and Euro-Group Summits and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of January 27th to January 31st referring to the U.S, Euro Area, China, Canada, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, January 27th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the changes (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of January. In the last report regarding December 2013, the business climate index slightly rose to 109.5;
All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may pertain to the latest developments in Europe;
09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q3 2013: This report will present the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2013; during the third quarter the GB economy expanded by 0.8% (Q-2-Q); if the growth rate further increases, it could affect the monetary policy of Bank of England and also affect GB pound;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to December 2013; in the previous report (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf) (opens pdf; for November), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 464,000 – a 4.5% rise (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep rising, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is reheating; this news may also affect theUS dollar;


Tuesday, January 28th

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding December may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of November 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $497.9 billion; if this report shows another rise in new orders, then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: Based on the last monthly update, for December, the consumer confidence index rose to 78.1 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the January index may fall; this report might affect the USD;


Wednesday, January 29th

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for January. In the latest report for December 2013, the climate index slightly rose to 7.6;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of December 2013. In the latest November report (http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/stats/md/html/index.en.html), the annual growth rate for M3 inched up to 1.5%; M1 declined to 6.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -2.3%. This news suggests the EU inflation is declining again as loans continue to shrink and the growth rate of M1 and M3 declines. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect future ECB rate decisions;
12:15 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will speak at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry’s member luncheon, in Edinburgh;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 24th; the report will also present the shifts in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Statement: The will be the first FOMC meeting for this year will take place during January 28th and 29th. The FOMC will decide whether it will taper further QE3. Many analysts expect the FOMC will keep the current monetary policy unchanged. This meeting won’t include a press conference and economic outlook so this meeting is likely to have smaller effect on financial markets. In any case, if the Fed introduces changes to its monetary policy, gold and silver prices might be strongly affected by this decision;


Thursday, January 30th

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate of its December’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 50.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding at a slightly slower rate than before. If the updated PMI index falls again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report estimates the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
13:30 – First U.S GDP 4Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s fourth quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm) rose by 4.1% in the third quarter of 2013 (it was revised up (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2013/gdp1q13_3rd.htm)). If the growth rate from third quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter further rises, this could positively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 24th; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims rose by 1k to reach 326k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report (http://www.realtor.org/topics/pending-home-sales) shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during December; in the previous update for November, pending home sales index inched up by 0.2% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress in the U.S housing market; if the index starts to fall again, it may drag down the U.S dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 24th;
01:30 – Australia’s PPI: This quarterly update will refer to fourth quarter of 2013. During the third quarter of 2013, the producer price index rose by 1.9% compared to the second quarter of 2012 and by 1.3% compared to Q2 2013; this index may affect the Aussie dollar;


Friday, January 31st

10:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to December 2013. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.5% during November;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index calculates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to last estimate, the annual CPI reached 0.8%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate starts to rise, this could indicate the EU economy is progressing. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s cash rate decision next week;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report showed that the rate of unemployment remained flat at 12.1%. The rate remained high and around 12% throughout 2013. If the rate of unemployment remains elevated, it could adversely affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for November 2013. In the last update regarding October 2013, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of December, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are expanding at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI falls again, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;

Good Luck:)

Samirofi
02-02-2014, 01:20 PM
Financial Market Forecast for February 3-7


Last week’s FOMC decision to cut further its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $65 billion a month may have contributed to the rally of the US dollar and the decline of precious metals prices. This upcoming week will be packed with many news items, decisions, reports and events that could stir up the financial markets again. These include: U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA ECB and BOE rate decisions, U.S, Canada, and Australia trade balance reports, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, EU and Australia retail sales updates, and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic forecast for the week of February 3rd to February 7th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, Euro Area, and Great Britain.


Monday, February 3rd

08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s manufacturing sector in January 2014. In the previous update regarding December 2013 the index rose to 50.8. This rate drop means the manufacturing sector is contracting;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During December, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 57.3. This rate gain suggests the manufacturing sector is growing at a slower rate; this index might affect GB Pound;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to January 2014. In December, the index slipped to 57%; this means the manufacturing is growing at a slower pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The last time the RBA reduced its cash rate was back in September. The current rate is set at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to depreciation of the Aussie dollar against leading currencies including Euro and USD. The current expectations are that RBA will maintain its cash rate flat in this upcoming rate decision;


Tuesday, February 4th

08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for December 2013, unemployment plummeted by 107.6k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
09:30 – GB Construction PMI:Great Britain’s construction sector in December 2013 slipped as the PMI increased to 62.1 – the construction sector is growing at a slower pace. The upcoming report will refer to January;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will pertain to the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during January; in the latest report factory orders increased by 1.8%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;


Wednesday, February 5th

08:15 – Spanish Services PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s services sector in January 2014. In the last update regarding December 2013 the index rose to 54.2. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is growing;
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index decreased to 58.8; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to December 2013. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.4% during November;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP (http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/) will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for January 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will pertain to January 2014. In the recent report, this index declined to 53% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 31st;


Thursday, February 6th

02:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to December 2013. In the latest report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.7% during November; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be linked with oil and gold prices;
02:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to December. In the previous update, for November, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $120 million deficit; if gold exports rally, it might suggest a rise in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/5368.0));
11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, factory orders rose by 2.1% during December;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for February 2014; the MPC will also state of any shifts to its asset purchase pogrom; as of December, BOE kept its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce its monetary policy and economic forecast as of February. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate flat, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to cut the cash deposit rate to become negative. This kind of hint might drag down the Euro;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 31st; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims rose by 19k to reach 348k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding November 2013, the trade balance moved from $75 million surplus in October to a $0.9 billion deficit in November; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for December will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance (http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm) update regarding November the goods and services deficit narrowed to $34.3billion;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of January 31st;


Friday, February 7th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will preset the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of December; in the last report regarding November 2013 the index remained flat; this news may affect the British Pound;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for December 2013, unemployment rose to 7.2%; the employment fell by 45.9k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the previous employment report regarding December 2013, the labor market modestly improved: The number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 74k – much lower than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%. If the employment exceed 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may drag down gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;


Good Luck :)

Samirofi
02-10-2014, 10:06 AM
Financial Market Forecast for February 10-14


The financial markets rallied as most stocks markets and commodities rose during last week. Even the lower than expected number of jobs added in the U.S during January, according to latest NF payroll report, didn’t stop commodities and stocks to increase on Friday. This week several reports, decisions and testimonies will take place including: Yellen’s testimony, U.S industrial production, Japan’s current account, EU GDP for the fourth quarter, French industrial production, Australia’s employment report, U.S retail sales, Canada’s budget, U.S federal budget, China new loans, China trade balance, and OPEC monthly update. Here is an economic outlook for the week of February 10th to February 14th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, China, Japan, and Australia.

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 10th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the developments in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;
08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of January; as of December, the production rose by 1.3%; this report may affect the Euro currency;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance fell to a $25.6 billion surplus; if the surplus further falls, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t improving and thus may negatively affect commodities prices;


Tuesday, February 11th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent shifts in China’s new loans. According to the previous update, the total loans fell again to 483 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;
16:10 –Yellen Testifies: The newly appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to testify in front of House Financial Services Committee. The Fed chairman will provide a Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress; this testimony could affect the financial markets;
21:00 –Canada’s Annual Budget: This will show the Federal government’s budget for this year;


Wednesday, February 12th

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;
10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2014 and 2015;
15:30 – Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the European Monetary Institute’s “Progress through Crisis” Conference organized by the European Central Bank and National Bank of Belgium, in Brussels;
Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held during the second week of January, the average rate reached 3.01% – the highest rate in recent months;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to January 2014; this report presents the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding December the deficit fell by $53 billion; if the deficit continues to narrows, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during January 2014; this update will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 7th;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding December 2013 the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) decreased by 22,600 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/6202.0));


Thursday, February 13th

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for January analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of December) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to January; in the last report regarding December, retail sales slightly rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.7%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could suggest the developments in demand for gasoline;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 7th; in the latest report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims fell by 20k to reach 331k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 7th;
16:40 –Yellen Testifies: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will also testify in front of Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee;
02:30 – China’s CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 2.5%; if the annual rate continues to fall, it could suggest the Chinese economy is slowing down;


Friday, February 14th

07:00 –EU and German Fourth Quarter GDP 2013: In the third quarter of 2013, Germany’s economy grew by 0.3%. The progress of the German economy is likely to affect the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may adversely affect Euro;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding December 2013, manufacturing sales increased again by 1%;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during January; as of December, the production inched up by 0.3%; this report may affect the US dollar;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index slipped to 80.4;

Samirofi
02-17-2014, 08:16 AM
Financial Market Forecast for February 17-21


The prices of leading commodities rallied during the past week. Moreover, the US dollar also depreciated against leading currencies such as Euro, Japanese yen and Aussie dollar during last week. In the upcoming week several reports, decisions and events will come to fruition including: Minutes of FOMC meeting, U.S PPI, China’s new loans, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s rate decision, minutes of last RBA meeting, ECOFIN Summit, U.S housing starts, GB climate count, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI reports, Canada’s retail sales, U.S CPI, and G20 Summit. Here is an economic outlook for the week of February 17th to February 21st regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, February 17th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent developments in China’s new loans. According to the last update, the total loans dropped; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;
All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may pertain to the latest developments in Europe;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, and the RBA is likely to change its monetary policy and not further cut its rate in the near future. The minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its recent decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities prices;


Tuesday, February 18th

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for January. In December, the ZEW indicator for Germany slipped to 61.7 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to fall, the Euro could plausibly weaken against other currencies including the US dollar;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for December 2013. In the recent report regarding November 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $29.3 billion;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;


Wednesday, February 19th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 24; the rate of unemployment inched down to 7.1%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank left the rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for January 2014; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold tends to decline the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts fell by 9.8% during December to reach over 999,000 houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during December, building permits dropped by 3% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 986,000. If building permits pick up, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is reheating (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to January 2014. In the last report (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) regarding December, this index for finished goods rose by 0.4% compared with December’s level; the core PPI increased by 0.3%; this news might affect the USD;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 14th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Back in January, the FOMC meeting decided to further taper its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $65 billion a month. This news seems to have had short term adverse effect on the prices of gold and silver. The US dollar also rallied against major currencies. But since then, the USD dollar fell and the prices of precious metals rallied. The upcoming minutes might shed some light on this decision, which could stir up the markets again;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in December 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit slightly contracted to 1,150 billion yen (roughly $11.2 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s shifts in demand for goods and services;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for February. Last month’s report regarding January 2014 the Manufacturing PMI inched down to 49.6 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is contracting for the first time since July 2013. If in the upcoming update the PMI index continues to drop, it could signal the progress in China’s economy is slowing down. This may also affect commodities prices;


Thursday, February 20th

All Day – G20 Summit
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the recent monthly report regarding January 2014, Germany’s PMI increased again to 56.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing at a faster pace. France’s PMI also rose to 48.8. This report serves estimates to the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the main changes in the core consumer price index (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) for January 2014. Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during December, the CPI rose by 0.3%; the core CPI inched up again by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding February, the growth rate slightly rose from +7 in December to +9.4 in January. If the index further declines, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0913.cfm));
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 14th; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims rose by 8k to reach 339k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 14th;


Friday, February 21st

All Day – G20 Summit
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain jumped by 2.6%; this report could affect the British pound;
10:00 – EU Economic Forecast: The European Commission will release its quarterly outlook report for the EU economy;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (December 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of December. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the last report regarding November 2013, manufacturing sales rose again by 0.4%;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly update will show the developments in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for January; in the previous report, the core CPI slipped by 0.4%;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the changes in U.S. existing home sales during January 2014; in the last report regarding December 2013 the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;

Samirofi
02-23-2014, 02:21 PM
Financial Market Forecast for February 24-28


The commodities markets continued to recover last week; in the forex market the Euro slightly appreciated against the USD. This week several reports will come out and may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: EU economic outlook, U.S new and pending home sales, U.S GDP for the fourth quarter, EU’s employment report, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, U.S consumer confidence, GB GDP for the fourth quarter, oil and gas EIA weekly update, Australia Private New Capital Expenditure and Canada’s GDP. Here is a breakdown for the week of February 24th to February 28th referring to the U.S, Euro Area, China, Canada, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, February 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of February. In the last report regarding January 2014, the business climate index slightly increased again to 110.6;
10:00 – EU CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI slightly fell to an annual rate of 0.8% during December. The changes in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;


Tuesday, February 25th

10:00 – EU Economic Forecast: The European Commission will issue its quarterly outlook report for the EU economy;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for January, the consumer confidence index increased to 80.7 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the February index may rise again; this report might affect the USD;


Wednesday, February 26th

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for February. In the previous report for January 2014, the climate index rose to 8.2;
09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q4 2013: This report will show the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2013; during the third quarter the GB economy grew by 0.8% (Q-2-Q); if the growth rate remains unchanged or very close to the first estimate, it could have little effect on the GB pound;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to January 2014; in the previous report (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf) (opens pdf; for December), the sales of new homes fell to an annual rate of 414,000 – a 10% drop (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep falling, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is cooling down; this news may also affect theUS dollar;
02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly update shows the shifts in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2013. As of the previous quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure rose by 3.6% (Q-o-Q) but fell by 0.7% compared to last year. If capital expenditures continue to pick up, this trend may positively affect the Aussie dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 21st; the report will also present the shifts in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;


Thursday, February 27th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of January 2014. In the latest December report (http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/stats/md/html/index.en.html), the annual growth rate for M3 fell to 1%; M1 declined to 5.8%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector remained at -2.3%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to shrink and the growth rate of M1 and M3 declines. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect future ECB rate decisions;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding January may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of December 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods decreased to $229.3 billion; if this report shows another fall in new orders, then it could pull down not only the USD but also commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 21st; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims fell by 3k to reach 336k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report pertains to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 21st;


Friday, February 28th

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report estimates the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
10:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade fell by 2.5% during December;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index calculates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to last estimate for January, the annual CPI reached 0.7%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate keeps falling, this could indicate the EU economy is shrinking. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s cash rate decision next week;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report showed that the rate of unemployment remained inched down to 12%. The rate remained high and around 12% throughout 2013. If the rate of unemployment remains high, it could adversely affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for December 2013. In the last update regarding November 2013, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.2%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
13:30 – Second U.S GDP 4Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s fourth quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the early estimate, the U.S GDP (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm) grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013. In the third quarter the GDP grew by 4.1%. If the growth rate in the second estimate rises from the first estimate, this could positively impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report (http://www.realtor.org/topics/pending-home-sales) presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during January; in the previous update for December, pending home sales index plunged by 8.7% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress in the U.S housing market; if the index falls again, it may drag down the U.S dollar;
15:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will participate in a panel discussion at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of January, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are expanding at a slower rate. If in the upcoming report the PMI falls again, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;

Samirofi
03-03-2014, 08:07 AM
Financial Market Forecast for March 3-7


The commodities markets slowed down last week; in the forex market the U.S dollar slightly depreciated against the Euro. This week will be packed with many news items, decisions, reports and events that could affect the commodities and forex markets. These include: U.S non-farm payroll report, Spain’s employment report, RBA, BOC, ECB and BOE rate decisions, China’s manufacturing PMI, Australia’s GDP for the fourth quarter, U.S and Canada trade balance reports, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, Draghi’s speech, RBA governor talks, EU and Australia retail sales updates, and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic forecast for the week of March 3rd to March 7th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, China, Euro Area, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):


Monday, March 3rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate of its February’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 49.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contacting. If the updated PMI index drops again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to Spain’s manufacturing sector in February 2014. In the last update regarding January 2014 the index rose to 52.2. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During January, Great Britain’s manufacturing index declined to 56.7. This rate gain suggests the manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace; this index might affect GB Pound;
14:00 – Draghi Speaks: ECB President will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Brussels;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to February 2014. In January, the index tumbled down to 51.3%; this means the manufacturing is growing at a much slower pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The last time the RBA cut its cash rate was back in September 2013. The current rate is set at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to depreciation of the Aussie dollar against currencies such Euro and USD. But given the last cash rate decision it seems that the RBA might not cut again its cash rate in the near future;


Tuesday, March 4th

02:30 – Australian GDP Fourth Quarter 2013: This quarterly report will refer to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2013. In the third quarter of 2013, the GDP grew by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted). Australia is among the leading countries in exporting commodities such as oil, LNG, and metal ores to big economies such as China and Japan; if the GDP growth rate will increase, it could positively affect the Australia dollar (see here last report (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/5206.0));
08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for January 2014, unemployment rose by 113.1k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
09:30 – GB Construction PMI:Great Britain’s construction sector in January 2014 improved as the PMI increased to 64.6 – the construction sector is growing at a faster pace. The upcoming report will refer to February;


Wednesday, March 5th

09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index slipped to 58.3; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade fell by 1.6% during December;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP (http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/) will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for February 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will decide on its overnight rate decision – the rate is currently set at 1%. The BOC may leave its policy unchanged and maintain its interest rate at its current level;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, this index rose to 54% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 28th;


Thursday, March 6th

02:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.5% during December; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
02:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to January. In the previous update, for December, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $470 million surplus; the report will also show the changes in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest a rally in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/5368.0));
11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, factory orders fell by 0.5% during January;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for March 2014; the MPC will also state of any shifts to its asset purchase pogrom; as of February, BOE kept its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will state its monetary policy and economic forecast as of March. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate unchanged, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to cut the cash deposit rate to become negative. This kind of hint might pull down the Euro; there will also be an ECB press conference;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 28th; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims rose by 14k to reach 348k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer to the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during February; in the latest report factory orders decreased by 1.5%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of February 28th;
22:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;


Friday, March 7th

11:00 – German Industrial Production: The next report will refer to February 2014. In the previous update, the industrial production changed course and fell by 0.6% during January;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding December 2014, the trade balance moved from $0.9 billion deficit in November to $1.7 billion deficit in December; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for January will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance (http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm) update regarding December the goods and services deficit widened to $38.7billion;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for January 2014, unemployment slipped to 7%; the employment rose by 29.4k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the previous employment report regarding January 2014, the labor market modestly grew: The number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 113k – much lower than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate inched down to 6.6%. If the employment exceed 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may pull down gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance rose to a $31.9 billion surplus; if the surplus further rises, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities prices;
02:30 – China’s CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI remained unchanged at annual rate of 2.5%; if the annual rate falls, it could suggest the Chinese economy is slowing down.

Samirofi
03-31-2014, 09:59 AM
Financial Market Forecast for March 31- April 4


The precious metals market cooled down again last week; energy commodities prices rallied; in the forex market the U.S dollar slightly appreciated against the Euro and Japanese yen and dropped against the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar. This week many news items, decisions, speeches, press conference and events could affect the commodities and forex markets. These include: FOMC Chair Yellen’s speech, U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA and ECB rate decisions, China’s manufacturing PMI, Australia’s retail sales, U.S and Canada trade balance updates, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, RBA governor speech, EU and German retail sales reports, ECOFIN Summit and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic outlook for the week of March 31st to April 4th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, China, Euro Area, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):


Monday, March 31st

07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 2.5% during January;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report projects the developments in the Swiss economy in the coming months;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. Based on the last estimate for February, the annual CPI reached 0.8%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate picks up, this could indicate the EU economy is slowly recovering. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s cash rate decision later this week;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly update shows the developments in major industrial sectors for January 2014. In the last update regarding December 2013, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.5%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices including oil and gold;
14:55 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following the latest FOMC decision to taper QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech at the 2014 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Chicago. The title of her speech is “Strengthening Communities”. Her words carry weight and could stir up the financial markets again especially if she were to address the FOMC’s monetary policy or the progress of the U.S economy;
16:15 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will participate in a press conference at the Bank of England, in London;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of February, the Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are still growing but at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI declines again, it could signal slowdown in the progress of China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate of its March’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 48.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contacting. If the updated PMI index falls again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA didn’t slash its cash rate since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to fall of the Aussie dollar against currencies such Euro and USD. Nonetheless, RBA isn’t likely to cut down its cash rate in the upcoming meeting – this could pull back up the Aussie dollar;


Tuesday, April 1st

08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s manufacturing sector in March 2014. In the last update regarding February 2014 the index inched up to 52.5. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster rate;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During January, Great Britain’s manufacturing index edged up to 56.9. This rate gain implies the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace; this index might affect GB Pound;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the rate of unemployment remained flat at 12%. If the rate of unemployment remains elevated, it could adversely affect the Euro;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will convene and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to March 2014. In February, the index bounced back to 53.2; this means the manufacturing is growing at a faster pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;


Wednesday, April 2nd

08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for February 2014, unemployment slipped by 1.9k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP (http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/) will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for March 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer to the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during March; in the latest report factory orders declined by 0.7%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 28th;


Thursday, April 3rd

01:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 1.2% during January; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to February. In the previous update, for January, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $1,430 million surplus; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest a rally in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/5368.0));
03:00 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia iiNet Business Luncheon, in Brisbane; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.6% during January;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy and economic outlook as of April. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate flat, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to reduce the cash deposit rate. This rate decision could affect the direction of the Euro; an ECB press conference will also be held following the statement of the ECB regarding its monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 28th; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims decreased by 10k to reach 311k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding January 2014, the trade balance moved from $1.7 billion deficit in December to $0.2 billion deficit in January; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be correlated with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for February will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance (http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm) update regarding January the goods and services deficit widened to $39.1billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to March 2014. In the recent report, this index fell to 51.6% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of March 28th;


Friday, April 4th

11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to March 2014. In the recent report, factory orders rose by 1.2% during February;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for February 2014, unemployment remained at 7%; the employment slipped by 7k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities rates;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report regarding February 2014, the labor market grew again: The number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 175k – higher than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate inched up to 6.7%. If the employment growth exceeds 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may drag down again gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;
15:00 – Canadian Ivey PMI: In the previous update, the PMI rose to 57.2; this index may affect the progress of the Canadian dollar;

Samirofi
04-07-2014, 11:59 AM
Financial Market Forecast for April 7-11


The commodities markets recovered mainly at after the U.S NF payroll report showed a rise of 192k in jobs during March. This week several reports and events will take place including: G20 Summit, U.S JOLTS Job Openings, China’s CPI, minutes of FOMC meeting, Japan’s current account, U.S PPI, Great Britain Manufacturing Production, Australia’s employment report, U.S federal budget, China new loans, BOC Business Outlook Survey, BOE and BOJ monetary policy meetings, and IEA and OPEC monthly update. Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 7th to April 11th


(All times GMT):


Monday, April 7th

08:00 – Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves: Swiss National Bank will provide an update on its reserves. In the previous update, total reserves reached 433.5 billion CHF;
15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic forecast. This report could also reflect the potential changes in BOC’s monetary policy;
00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the changes in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;


Tuesday, April 8th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of February; in the last report regarding January 2014 the index rose by 0.4%; this news may affect the British Pound;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings during March, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding February, the number of jobs opening was 3.97 million;


Wednesday, April 9th

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans rose to 645 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during March 2014; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 4th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Back in March, the FOMC meeting decided to taper again its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $55 billion a month. This news seems to have had an adverse effect on the prices of gold and silver. The US dollar also recovered against major currencies. The upcoming minutes might shed some light on this decision, the FOMC’s future monetary steps and especially the decision process about setting the timing for hiking its cash rate;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding February 2014 the rate of unemployment remained flat at 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 47,300 people. This report could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/6202.0));


Thursday, April 10th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly update, China’s trade balance dropped from a surplus to a $23 billion deficit; if the deficit expands further, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t improving and thus may negatively affect commodities prices;
08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of February; as of February, the production inched down by 0.2%;
09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for February analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will publish its basic rate for April 2014; the MPC will also state of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of March, BOE leave its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
Day 1 – G20 Summit: The ministers of finance of the leading economies will convene and are expected to talk about a range of global economic issues, including Russian-Ukraine crisis, in WashingtonDC;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 4th; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm) the jobless claims rose by 16k to reach 326k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 4th;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This forthcoming report (http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html) will refer to March 2014; this report presents the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the last report regarding February the deficit dropped by $193.5 billion; if the deficit widens further, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding implementing additional budget cuts in the future;
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan will release the kept the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting. This report may offer some insight regarding the bank’s future plans; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate declines again, it could signal the Chinese economy is slowing down.


Friday, April 11th

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to March 2014. In the recent report (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) regarding February, this index for finished goods inched down by 0.1% compared with January’s level; the core PPI also decreased by 0.2%; this news might affect the USD;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of March) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;
Day 2 – G20 Summit: This will the second day of this summit;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index decreased to 79.9;

Samirofi
04-14-2014, 08:09 AM
Financial Market Forecast for April 14-18


The commodities markets heated up as oil, natural gas and precious metals rallied during last week. This week several reports, speeches and publications will come to fruition including: U.S retail sales, China’s GDP for the first quarter, Janet Yellen’s speech, BOJ’s Kuroda speech, U.S industrial production, Great Britain Claimant Count, U.S CPI, BOC rate decision, U.S housing starts and building permits, China new loans, Philly Fed index, and EU industrial production. Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 14th to April 18th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, Canada, Great Britain, and Australia.

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 14th

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of March; as of February, the production slipped by 0.2%; this report may affect the Euro currency;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans fell to 645 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic activity;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to March; in the last report regarding February, retail sales slightly rose by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail also increased by 0.3%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some input regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, and the RBA is likely to keep its monetary policy and its rate unchanged in the near future. The minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its recent decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities prices;


Tuesday, April 15th

10:30 – GB CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI slightly fell to an annual rate of 1.7% during February. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could affect BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for March. In February, the ZEW indicator for Germany tumbled down to 46.6 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to fall, the Euro could plausibly weaken against other currencies including the US dollar;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding February 2014, manufacturing sales increased by 1.5%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the main developments in the core consumer price index (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) for March 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during February, the CPI edged up by 0.1%; the core CPI also inched up by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:45 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Conference: 2014 Financial Markets Conference, Stone Mountain, Georgia;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for February 2014. In the previous report regarding January 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $7.3 billion;
03:00 –China First Quarter GDP 2014: In the fourth quarter of 2013, China grew by 7.7% in annual terms; China’s economy grew by 7.8% in the third quarter of 2013. The current expectations are that the first quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms by a similar pace to the previous quarter; if the growth rate further increases, this may positively affect commodities prices;


Wednesday, April 16th

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production declined to an annual rate of 8.6%; if the growth rate drops again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing slower;
07:15 –Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks: Governor Kuroda will speak at the 89th Convention of the Trust Companies Association of Japan, in Tokyo;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 34.6k; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 7.2%;
10:00 – EU CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 0.7% during February. The changes in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for March 2014; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rises, gold tends to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts rose by 3.4% during February to reach over 910k houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last update, during February, building permits rose by 8.5% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1,020k. If building permits continues to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is heating up (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the U.S industrial production during March; as of February, the production rose by 0.6%; this report may affect the US dollar;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will decide on its overnight rate – the rate is set at 1%. The BOC may keep its policy unchanged and maintain its interest rate at 1%; the economic developments in Canada might prompt BOC to eventually reduce its cash rate;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 11th;
17:15 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following the recent release of the minutes of the last FOMC, in which the FOMC decided to taper QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech titled “Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery” at the Economic Club of New York. Her words carry weight and could stir up the financial markets again especially if she were to address the FOMC’s monetary policy;
01:30 –Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks: Governor Kuroda will speak at the Branch Managers Meeting, in Tokyo;


Thursday, April 17th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the developments in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for February; in the recent report, the core CPI rose by 0.7%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 11th; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims fell by 32k to reach 300k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding March, the growth rate rose from -6.3 in February to +9 in March. If the index further rises, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0913.cfm));
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 11th;


Friday, April 18th

Good Friday – Stocks and Commodities Markets Remain Closed

Samirofi
06-23-2014, 11:23 AM
Financial Market Forecast for June 23-27


Last week’s FOMC meeting concluded with more dovish tone than many had expected. This news may have contributed to the recovery of precious metals and slightly rally of the USD. This week, several key reports will be released that could impact the financial markets including: U.S PCE, personal spending, home sales, final GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2014, core durable goods, jobless claims, consumer confidence, and consumer sentiment. Great Britain’s current account and GDP final estimate along with BOE’s Carney’s press conferences will be the main events. In the Euro Area, several economic reports will be published such as EU manufacturing PMI, and Germany’s business climate. Also, the EU economic summit will take place. Finally, in Asia, BOJ Kuroda will give a speech; China’s manufacturing PMI will be released. Here is a short outlook of these reports and events for the week of June 23rd to June 27th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, June 23rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for June. Last month’s report regarding May 2014, the Manufacturing PMI increased again to 49.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is scaling down but at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI index picks up again, it means China’s manufacturing sector is improving;
07:00 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan will give a speech at the 2014 Japan Association of Corporate Executive Members’ Meeting, in Tokyo;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly update regarding May 2014, France’s PMI fell to 49.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting. Germany’s PMI slipped to 52.9 – the industry still grows but a slower rate. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the changes in U.S. existing home sales for May 2014; in the recent report regarding April, the number of homes sold edged up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.65 million houses; if this trend persists, it might positively affect the U.S dollar;


Tuesday, June 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of June. In the last report regarding May 2014, the business climate index slipped to 110.4;
09:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will speak, among other MPC members, at the Treasury Committee Hearing, in London;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for May, the consumer confidence index slightly rose to 83 (month-over-month). This report might impact the USD;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to May 2014; in the last report (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf) (opens pdf; for April), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 433,000 – a 12.7% gain (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep recovering, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is heating down; this news may also impact theUS dollar;


Wednesday, June 25th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding May will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of April (http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/table2p.pdf) 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $239.9 billion – a 0.6% rise compared to March; if this report shows additional growth in new orders, then it could rally not only the USD but also commodities;
13:30 – Final U.S GDP 1Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the U.S GDP (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm) contacted by 1% in the first quarter (annual pace). If the growth rate were to be revised down again, this might adversely affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 20th;


Thursday, June 26th

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report, in London;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 20th; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims fell by 6k to reach 312k;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: Following the recent remarks made by Chair of the FOMC Yellen regarding the importance of the personal consumption expenditures (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm) over the CPI in assessing the changes in the inflation, investors are likely to pay closer attention to the PCE. In the past report, the price index of the PCE rose by 0.3% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) by the same rate. On an annual rate, the core PCE increased by only 1.4% – less than the inflation target.
13:30 – U.S. Personal Spending: Based on the previous update, spending slipped by 0.1%;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of June 20th;


Friday, June 27th

All Day – EU Economic Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for May 2014, the CPI inched down by 0.1%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This report estimates the progress of the Swiss economy in the coming months;
09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. According to the previous update, the deficit expanded to 22.4 billion pounds. This report might affect the British Pound;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 81.9;

Samirofi
06-30-2014, 08:55 PM
Financial Market Forecast for June 30- July 4


The energy commodities markets cooled down during last week as oil and natural gas prices changed course and fell. Precious metals remained virtually unchanged. This week, in the U.S several economic reports will be published including non-farm payroll, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders, pending home sales, trade balance, factory orders, and jobless claims. Chair of the FOMC Yellen will give a speech. In Europe, the ECB rate decision will be the main focus. Germany’s retail sales and factory orders will be released. EU monetary development, CPI and rate of unemployment will also be published. RBA will decide its rate for July. China’s manufacturing PMI report will come out. In Canada, its trade balance and GDP monthly updates will be released. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of June 30th to July 4th.


(All times GMT):


Tuesday, July 1st

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.5%. RBA isn’t likely to cut its cash rate in the upcoming meeting;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Update: In the previous unemployment update for May 2014, unemployment rose by 25k. The next report might impact the Euro and consequently commodities;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During March, Great Britain’s manufacturing index inched down to 57. This rate gain implies the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slightly slower pace; this index might affect GB Pound;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the rate of unemployment edged down again to 11.7%. This means the labor market in the Euro Area has yet to recover;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for May, the annual CPI slipped to 0.5%; the core CPI fell to 0.7%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate remains low, this could indicate the EU economy isn’t progressing. These changes could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s future cash rate decisions;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to June 2014. Back in May, the index rose to 55.4; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster rate; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;


Wednesday, July 2nd

01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to May. In the previous update, for April, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $120 million deficit; the report will also show the changes in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest an increase in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/5368.0));
09:30 – GB Construction PMI: According the previous update, the index declined again to 60; this means the contraction sectors is growing at a slower pace;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll:ADP (http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/) will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for June 2014 that will be published on Thursday;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer to the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during June; in the latest report factory orders rose by 0.7%; this report will offer some insight regarding the developments in the U.S economy;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 27th;
16:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the International Monetary Fund, in Washington DC; her remarks could impact the financial markets if she were to refer to the future plans of the FOMC and the economic progress of the U.S economy. But based on her last press conference following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, I’m a bit dubious she will offer any actual information or hints about these issues;
05:00 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the Australian Conference of Economists and the Econometric Society of Australasian Meeting, in Hobart; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;


Thursday, July 3rd

01:30 – Australian Retail Sales: In the recent report referring to April, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.2%; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index inched down to 58.6; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to May 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.4% during April;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy for July. Following the previous decision from last month to reduce the deposit rate, Mario Draghi may refer to any future steps the ECB could take to jump start the EU economy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 27th; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims remained at 312K; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report regarding April, the trade balance moved from $0.1 billion surplus in March to $0.6 billion deficit in April; if the trade balance show a sharp shift, it could impact the Canadian dollar;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to May 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment expanded by 217K; the U.S unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%. In the four reports, the average growth in employment was over 200K. If the upcoming report shows another strong month of over 200K, this could keep slowly pulling up the USD and slightly cutting down the prices of gold and silver;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for April will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the latest American trade balance (http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm) update regarding March the goods and services deficit widened to $47.2 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to June 2014. In the recent report, this index rose to 56.3% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate compared to the last month;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of June 27th;


Friday, July 4th

11:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders rose by 3.1% during May;

Samirofi
07-11-2014, 04:59 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook July 14-18


Draghi’s testimony, Rate decision in Japan and Canada, German Economic Sentiment, Carney’s speech, US retail sales, Janet Yellen’s testimony before the US senate, US manufacturing, employment and consumer sentiment data are the main Market movers on our calendar for this week. Here is an outlook on the major events to change Forex trading.

Last week FOMC Meeting Minutes release showed that the Fed is finally moving towards preparing the markets for monetary normalization. The Fed decided to end QE in October 2014, with a larger than expected taper of $15 billion rather than prolonging the process till December. However there wasn’t any clear indication regarding the possible timeline for a rate hike. Regarding inflation, The Fed noted it had moved up recently, but some members said that employment market still needs to improve. Overall, the minutes confirm that policy changes will be made according to plan unless new data arrives.


Let’s start,


Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 17:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Strasbourg. He may talk on the ongoing weak inflation, despite the ECB’s recent moves. Volatility is expected.

Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan decided to keep monetary policy unchanged on its June meeting, pledging to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen. The central bank noted the economy is progressing at a moderate pace in line with expectations and revised up its outlook on overseas economies in light of a progress in industrial output.

UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Inflation in the UK declined in May to a four and a half year low of 1.5%, following 1.8% in posted in April. Lower flight rates and food prices pushed inflation down. Inflation remained below the BOE’s 2% target for the sixth month. However prices still increase faster than average earnings influencing consumer spending. CPI is expected to reach 1.6%.

Mark Carney speaks: Tuesday, 9:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak about the Financial Stability in London. Market volatility is expected.

Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00 Investor sentiment continued to decline in June reaching the lowest level in 18 months, down 3.3 points to 29.8. Economists expected the index to reach 35.2. This was the sixth consecutive fall indicating a grim outlook for economic growth unlike the 5.6 points rise to 67.7 for current economic conditions. However the ZEW survey can be volatile. German sentiment is expected to rise to 33.4.

US retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales gained 0.3% in May, less than the 0.5% rise projected by analysts, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. However the positive growth trend in the US employment market leaves less room for concern. Meanwhile core sales, excluding autos increased 0.1% in May after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.6%.

Janet Yellen speaks: Tuesday, 14:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the US Senate in Washington DC. Important issues may be raised such as the final taper decision, inflation situation and rate hike schedule. Market volatility is expected.

UK employment data: Wednesday: 8:30. The number of people filing claims for unemployment benefits in the U.K dropped more than expected in May, falling by a seasonally adjusted 27,400, while the unemployment rate plunged to 6.6% from 6.8% in April. Analysts expected jobless claims to reach 25,000 and unemployment rate to 6.7%. Meanwhile, the average earnings index edged up by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in the three months to April, less than the 1.2% increase projected, after rising by 1.9% in the three months to March. The number of Jobless people is expected to decline by 27,100 and the unemployment rate is expected to remain 6.6%

US PPI : Wednesday, 12:30. Producer prices in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in May by 0.2%, confirming that inflation is mild. Chipper food and gas pushed PPI down after two strong climbs raising hopes for higher inflation figures. In the last 12 months, producer prices increased 2%, in line with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target following 2.1% in April. Core PPI, excluding food and energy products, remained unchanged in May. Producer prices are expected to rise to 0.4%.

Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 1%. Inflation moved closer to the central bank’s target of 2%. The Canadian economy grew at a modest rate in the first quarter, troubled by by severe weather and supply constraints. However lower Canadian dollar and a rising foreign demand are expected to boost exports. Improved corporate profits, especially in exchange rate-sensitive sectors, should also support higher business investment in the coming quarters. The next change in monetary policy will depend on new information and its influence on the balance of risks.

US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The number of building permits issued in the U.S. declined more-than-expected in May, falling 6.4% to a seasonally adjusted 991,000 units. Analysts expected a rise to 1.07 million units. Meanwhile, housing starts declined 6.5% to a seasonally adjusted 1.001 million units from April’s total of 1.071 million, worse than the 3.7% drop predicted by analysts. The number of building permits is expected to reach 1.04 million this time.

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 last week reaching 304,000, well below estimates of a 315,000 rise. The reading brought unemployment claims near to a seven-year low of 298,000. The four-week moving average, fell to 311,500, lower by 3,500 from the unrevised average of 315,000 in the previous week. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise by 310,000.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. The manufacturing sector around the Philadelphia region edged up in June, reaching 17.8, above May’s reading of 15.4. Economists expected the survey to reach 14.3. This was the fourth consecutive month in positive territory and the strongest figure since September. New orders expanded by 6 points to 16.8, new shipments increased to 15.5, following 14.2 in May and the employment index also edged up to 11.9, from May’s reading of 7.8. The positive shifts suggest the US manufacturing sector is picking up. The manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia area is expected to decline to 15.6.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. U.S. consumer sentiment declined in June to 81.2 down from 81.9 posted in May, but the lower figure does not necessarily suggests a downside trend. Consumers were positive regarding the past six months. Current economic conditions edged up to 95.4 from 94.5 and was below a forecast of 95.7 and consumer expectations declined to 72.2 from 73.7, and missed an expected 74.6. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 83.5.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
07-14-2014, 04:36 PM
Financial Market Forecast for July 14-18


The prices of oil and natural gas took a noise dive last week, while precious metals rallied mainly by the end of the week. On this week’s agenda: Yellen testifies, Philly Fed index, U.S PPI, China’s GDP for the second quarter, Draghi testifies, EU industrial production, China’s new loans, U.S retail sales, BOC rate decision, and U.S housing starts. So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of July 14th to July 18th.
(All times GMT):


Monday, July 14th


Tentative – China New Loans: According to the recent monthly report, the total loans reached 871 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;
10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of June; as of May, the production bounced back by 0.8%;
18:00 – Draghi Testifies: ECB President will testify on monetary policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Strasbourg;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. The minutes of the previous monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest rate decision. Since the Bank isn’t likely to change its policy anytime soon, the minutes aren’t likely to impact the Aussie dollar;


Tuesday, July 15th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 1.5% during May. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could affect BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for June. In May, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped again to 29.8 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to fall, the Euro could plausibly weaken against leading currencies;
10:30 – BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England is expected to testify, along with BOE Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey, regarding the Financial Stability Report at the House of Commons Treasury Committee Hearing, in London;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to June; in the previous report regarding May, retail sales rose by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail edged up by 0.1%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Following the latest FOMC decision to taper again QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. If she were to refer to the FOMC’s future plans regarding its policy, this testimony could impact the USD and precious metals prices;
03:00 –China Second Quarter GDP 2014: In the first quarter of 2014, China grew by 7.4% in annual terms – lower than in the previous quarter. If the growth rate falls further, this may adversely affect commodities prices;
03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production inched up to an annual rate of 8.8%; if the growth rate rises, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a faster pace;


Wednesday, July 16th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB dropped again by 27.4K; the rate of unemployment slipped to 6.6%; as the British economy keeps picking up, the BOE is likely to turn more hawkish;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding May 2014, manufacturing sales inched down by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to June 2014. In the latest report (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) regarding May, this index for finished goods slipped by 0.2% compared with April’s level; the core PPI also inched down by 0.1%; this news might impact the USD;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for May 2014. In the previous report regarding April 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $24.2 billion;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly changes in the U.S industrial production during June; as of May, the production changed direction and rose by 0.6%;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce of any changes to its overnight rate – the rate is set at 1%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any change to its policy;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will also publish its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 11th;


Thursday, July 17th

10:00 – EU CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 0.5% during May. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 4th; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims declined by 11K to reach 304K;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for June 2014; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts falls, gold tends to rise the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts slipped to 1,000K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during May, building permits declined to 990K houses. If building permits continues to fall, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding June, the growth rate slightly rose from +15.4 in May to +17.8 in June. If the index further rallies, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0913.cfm));
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 11th;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some insight behind its recent meeting;


Friday, July 18th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the developments in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for May; in the previous report, the core CPI rose by 0.5%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index slipped to 81.2;

Samirofi
07-25-2014, 07:47 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Jul 28-Aug 1


US Housing data, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, GDP figures in the US and Canada, US rate decision and Non-Farm Payrolls are the main market movers this week. Here is an outlook on the major events coming our way.

Last week, the number of US jobless claims fell to 284K, the lowest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, indicating the labor market recovery is picking up. The 19,000 fall was contrary to analysts’ expectations of a rise to 308,000. The four-week average declined by 7,250 to 302,000, falling to the lowest level since May 2007. The US economy continues to improve suggesting the Fed may raise rates sooner than planned. Will we see a rate hike in 2014?

Let’s start,



S Pending Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. The number of contracts to purchase existing U.S. homes surged in May by 6.1%, the biggest climb since April 2010. The reading was far better than the 1.4% addition predicted by analysts, showing a strong rebound in the housing market. Stronger employment conditions as well as cheaper borrowing costs, enable the pick-up in the housing sector. Pending sales are expected to decline 0.2% this time.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence edged up in June to 85.2 following a downwardly revised 82.2 in May, posting the highest reading since January 2008. Economists expected a smaller rise to 83.6. The expectations index increased to 85.2 in June from 83.5 in May, while the current situation index improved to 85.1 versus 80.3 in May. A further rise to 85.5 is expected now.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. Private sector employment increased by 281,000 workers in June from 179,000 in May, according to the ADP report. Economists’ expected a modest rise of 207,000 jobs. The strong reading reflects continued strengthening in the labor market with a pick-up in Job creation. Private sector employment is expected to expand by 234,000.
US GDP data: Wednesday, 12:30. Advance GDP, the earliest GDP measure released in April showed an annual growth pace of 0.1% in the first quarter, falling behind expectations for a 1.2% climb. Weather conditions and sluggish exports, housing and business investment were the main contributors for the shabby growth rate. The Preliminary GDP reading is predicted to reach 3.1%.
FOMC Statement: Wednesday, 18:00. The Fed decisions released in June were in line with market expectations. Rates remained unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25% and taper continued on schedule. The Fed expressed concerned about the elevated unemployment rate, however noted an improvement in economic activity. The Committee voted to maintain accommodative stance of monetary policy to support growth. The FOMC downgraded its GDP forecast due to adverse weather in the first quarter.
Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canadian GDP Growth stalled in April, inching 0.1% as in the previous month, while expected to rise 0.2%. Wholesale and retail activity edged up mildly, while mining and construction output weakened. On a year-over-year bases gross domestic product expanded 2.1%, the same rate marked in the previous month. Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.3%.
US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The US Labor market registered a decline of 19,000 claims for jobless benefits in the previous week; reaching 283,000.Analysts expected a rise to 307,000 in the number of claims. This was the lowest reading since February 2006. The four-week moving average declined by 7,250 to 302,000, from the previous week. This is the lowest average level since May 19, 2007. This week’s reading reinforces views that the US economy is matching forward. The number of unemployment claims is expected to reach 306,000.
Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Friday, 3:30. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. He may speak about the slowdown in inflation and his plans for the coming months.
US Non-Farm Employment Change and US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 12:30. The US labor market showed a remarkable job Addition of 288,000 in June, the strongest reading since January 2012, following a gain of 217,000 in May. Analysts expected a weaker increase of 214,000. This was another sign that the US job market is strengthening parallel to the economic recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 6.3% registered in May, the lowest level since Sep. 2008. Analysts expected rates to remain unchanged at 6.3%. The US labor market is expected to increase by 230,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 6.1%.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. In June, the ISM manufacturing index declined mildly to 55.3, from 55.4% recorded in May. The figure was a little below market forecast of 55.6. However, the index still indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. Declines in production and in supplier deliveries were the main reason for the lukewarm rise. US manufacturing sector is expected to expand to 56.1.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
07-28-2014, 06:03 PM
Financial Market Forecast for July 28- August 1


This week, several U.S economic reports will be published including non-farm payroll, manufacturing PMI, GDP Q2 first estimate, pending home sales, and jobless claims. The FOMC will convene again for the fifth time this year to decide of any changes to its policy. In Europe, the flash estimate of the CPI and the unemployment report will be the main focus. Germany’s retail sales, unemployment and CPI as well as Spain’s GDP for Q2 will also be released. In Canada, its GDP monthly update will be published. China’s manufacturing PMI monthly updates will come out. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of July 28th to August 1st.


(All times GMT):

Monday, July 28th

15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report (http://www.realtor.org/topics/pending-home-sales) presents the changes in pending home sales in the U.S during June; in the previous update for May, pending home sales index increased by 6.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S housing market; if the index keeps rising, it may positively impact the U.S dollar;


Tuesday, July 29th

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for June, the consumer confidence index rallied to 85.2 (month-over-month). This report may impact the USD;


Wednesday, July 30th

Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for June 2014, the CPI inched up by 0.3%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This report projects the progress of the Swiss economy in the coming months;
08:00 – Spain’s flash GDP Q2 2014: In the last estimate Spain’s GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2014. If the growth rate from doesn’t pick up, this could adversely affect the Euro;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll:ADP (http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/) will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for July 2014 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – First U.S GDP 2Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2014 real GDP growth. The first estimate tends to have the strongest impact on the financial market. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm) fell by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014. If the US gross domestic product doesn’t pick up, this could negatively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 25th;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The FOMC meeting will take place between July 29th and 30th. The FOMC is expected to announce of sixth tapering decision of its QE3 program. This time, however, the FOMC meeting will be accompanied with a press conference. Thus, the meeting is likely to have modest impact on the markets, unless, of course, the FOMC surprises the markets;


Thursday, July 31st

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for June 2014, retail sales fell again by 0.6%;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Update: In the previous unemployment update for June 2014, unemployment rose by 9K. The next report might impact the Euro;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for June, the annual CPI rose to 0.5%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate doesn’t rise, this could indicate the EU economy isn’t heating up. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s future cash rate decisions;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the rate of unemployment edged down again to 11.6%. This means the labor market in the Euro Area is only slowly progressing;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for May 2014. In the last update regarding April 2014, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 25th; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims fell by 19K to 284K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of July 25th;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of June, the Manufacturing PMI inched up to 51 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a faster rate. If in the upcoming report the PMI keeps picking up, it could signal a rise in the progress of China’s manufacturing sectors;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate for its July’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 50.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing. If the updated PMI index rises again, this will imply China’s manufacturing conditions are improving;
04:30 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan will speak at the Research Institute of Japan, in Tokyo;


Friday, August 1st

09:30 – Spain’s Manufacturing PMI: According to the previous update Spain’s manufacturing index rose to 54.6. This rate gain implies the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During April, Great Britain’s manufacturing index inched up to 57.5;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to June 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by 288K; the U.S unemployment rate remained slipped to 6.1%. In the past five reports, the average growth in employment was well above 200K. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain of over 200K, this could further pull up the USD and slightly bring down the prices of gold and silver;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm) index is another important measure the FOMC follows in assessing the changes in inflation. In the past report, the price index of the PCE rose by 0.2% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) also inched up by a similar rate. On an annual rate, the core PCE increased by only 1.5% – well below the FOMC’s inflation target.
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 82.5;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to July 2014. Back in June, the index inched down to 55.3; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slightly slower pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;

Samirofi
08-01-2014, 06:23 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook August 4-8


Rate decision in Australia, the UK, Japan and the Eurozone, Employment data, in Australia, Canada and the US, US trade and Manufacturing data are some of the highlight events on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market movers for this week.


Last week, the NFP release was disappointing with a lower than expected addition of 209,000 jobs while analysts expected an increase of 231,000. Despite the slowdown in hiring during July, job creation remains robust, strengthening the US labor market and contributes to economic growth. Meantime, the Unemployment rate inched to 6.2% from 6.1% in June, while analysts expected no change. The nonfarm gains show an average of 200,000 or more in six consecutive months going in line with the 4% GDP growth posted in the second quarter. The labor-force participation rate also improved to 62.9 from 62.8 in June, though still near its lowest level posted in the late 1970s.




ustralian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained rates at 2.5% on its last meeting in July, despite rumors of a possible rate cut. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens declared the currency was “overvalued” but kept monetary policy unchanged. Stevens noted the growth signs and the pickup in demand saying accommodative policy would continue to boost economic activity. It is unlikely that the RBA would step in again with further stimulus measures. No change in rates is expected this time.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. Service sector activity expanded slower than expected in June, reaching 56 after posting 56.3 in May, amid bleak economic outlook. Economists expected a smaller drop to 56.2. New Orders Index increased by 0.7 points to 61.2. Employment Index increased 2.0 points to 54.4. Overall, the non-Manufacturing sector reported growth in June. A rise to 56.6 is expected now.
New Zealand employment data: Tuesday, 22:45. Unemployment in New Zealand remained unchanged at 6% in the first quarter, with an increase in labor force and the highest participation rate in New Zealand’s history. Economists expected the unemployment rate to fall to 5.8%. However, the participation rate edged up 0.4% to 69.3%, reaching a record high for New Zealand. Wages increased an annualized 1.6% (including overtime) in the March quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter. New Zealand job market is expected to rise by 0.7%, while the unemployment rate is predicted to tick down to 5.8%.
US Trade Balance: Wednesday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $44.4 billion in May as U.S. exports expanded to an all-time high of $195.5 billion, while, imports declined slightly. The trade deficit narrowed 5.6% in May after hitting a two-year high of $47 billion in the prior month. The low trade deficit ensures better growth rate. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to shrink further to 44.2B this time.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s jobless rate increased to 6.0% in June following 5.9 registered in the previous month. However the labor force increased by 15,900, beating forecast for a 13,200 job addition. The number of full-time jobs declined by 3,800, and part-time employment edged up by 19,700. Australia’s participation rate climbed to 64.7% in June from 64.6% in May. Australia is expected to add 13,500 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6%.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rates at a record low of 0.5% in July. However economic activity has greatly improved, bouncing back from a long period of stagnation, raising calls for a rate hike at the end of this year or in early 2015. BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report will be released this month and may act as a catalyst for the more hawkish members of the committee to contemplate voting for a tightening. The BOE is not expected to change its monetary policy this time.
Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 11:45. The ECB kept rates on hold in July’s meeting after cutting them to boost economic growth. Mr. Draghi said interest rates will remain put for an “extended period of time in view of the current outlook for inflation”. Inflation remained at the “danger zone” below 1% in June, reaching 0.5%. However Markit’s survey shows a pickup in new orders suggesting economic activity will grow in the second half of the year. No change in rates is forecasted.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:20. The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits edged up by 23,000 last week reaching 302,000. The reading was broadly in line with market forecast while remaining at pre-recession levels. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell 3,500 to 297,250, posing the lowest average since April 2006. Fewer layoffs and strong confidence in the US economic outlook strengthens the US labor market. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise to 305,000.
Japan rate decision: Friday. The Bank of Japan decided to continue increasing monetary base at an annual pace of ¥60 trillion to ¥70 trillion and lowered its growth forecast for the fiscal year of 2014 to 1%. The pace of recovery was in line with forecasts, despite a decline in domestic demand following the consumption tax hike. The BOE forecasts economic growth will increase in the coming months. Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canadian workforce narrowed by 9,400 jobs in June after a 25,800 addition registered in the previous month. The unemployment rate increased to 7.1% following 7.0% in May. On a yearly base, Canada’s labor market increased 0.4%, the lowest growth rate since February 2010. Canada added 33,500 full-time jobs, while part-time jobs and positions held by youths aged 15-24 dropped 43,000. Youth unemployment remains a major problem. Canadian workforce is expected a job gain of 25,400, while the unemployment rate is expected to r


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
08-04-2014, 06:06 PM
Financial Market Forecast for August 4-8


Most leading commodities took a nose dive last week, while USD rallied against leading currencies. This week, BOJ, BOE, RBA and ECB will have a rate decision meeting, in the U.S several economic reports will come out including non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders, trade balance, and jobless claims. I n Europe, EU retail sales and Germany’s factory orders will be released. EU monetary development, CPI and rate of unemployment will also be published. China’s CPI and trade balance report will come out. In Canada, employment report and trade balance monthly updates will be released. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of August 4th to August 8th


(All times GMT):


Monday, August 4th

10:00 – Spanish Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the unemployment fell by 122.7K;
01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to June. In the last update, for May, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $1.91 billion deficit; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest an increase in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/5368.0));
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate flat since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.5%. RBA isn’t likely to change its cash rate in the upcoming meeting;
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index dropped to 57.7; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to June 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade remained unchanged during May;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will pertain to July 2014. In the recent report, this index inched down to 56% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the last month;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report shows the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in July; in the latest report factory orders fell by 0.5%; this report will offer some insight regarding the developments in the U.S economy;


Wednesday, August 6th

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders declined by 1.7% during June;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of June; in the last report regarding May 2014 the index decreased by 1.3%;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the trade balance moved from $0.6 deficit in April to $0.2 billion deficit in May; if the trade balance show a sharp change, it could impact the Canadian dollar;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for May will present the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance (http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm) update regarding April the goods and services deficit narrowed to $44.4 billion;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 2nd;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding June 2014 the rate of unemployment rose to 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 15,900 people. This report could impact the Australian dollar (see here the recent report (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/6202.0));


Thursday, August 7th

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will release its basic rate for August 2014; the MPC will also state of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of April, BOE left its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy for August. Following the previous decision from last month, Mario Draghi may refer to any future steps the ECB could take to jump start the EU economy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 2nd; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims rose by 23K to 302K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 2nd;


Friday, August 8th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the direction of the Japanese yen;
07:00 – German Trade Balance: In the previous report, the country’s surplus in its balance of goods and services was $18.8 billion – a gain from the last month;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the last monthly report, China’s trade balance dropped to a $31.6 billion surplus; if the surplus expands further, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities prices;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for June 2014, unemployment inched up to 7.1%; the employment fell by 9.4K during last month;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 2.3%; if the annual rate falls again, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up;

Samirofi
08-11-2014, 07:11 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook August 11-15

The US dollar and the Japanese yen were the winners in a week which saw mounting geopolitical fear and lots of action. German Economic Sentiment; UK employment data; Mark Carney’s speech and inflation report; US unemployment claims, PPI, consumer sentiment are the major topics in Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market movers for this week.

The US economy showed its strength with an excellent ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI release climbing to 58.7 The employment component is up and weekly jobless claims were below 300K once again. The yen rode higher on geopolitics: counter-sanctions from Russia, a deterioration in Iraq and also a breakdown of the ceasefire in Gaza. The euro suffered from Draghi’s comments, weak German data and an Italian recession. Weak manufacturing hit the British pound and all commodity currencies were hit by unexciting employment data. This is certainly a hot summer.
Updates:



Aug 11, 15:45: Global Equities Levtiate as Geopolitics Dominate: Geopolitical wildfires continue to rage throughout the global landscape, though a dampening of some of the immediate risks has financial...
Aug 11, 11:52: Dollar enjoys underlying bid: One of the main fears last month was that markets were too complacent on the prevailing risks. Volatility measures were...
Aug 11, 8:31: Identifying When To Let Your Forex Trades Run Towards Bigger Profits: For every hundred traders you come across who trade in short time frames, you may find two who are making...






German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German analyst and investor climate continued to decline in July, falling to 27.1 points from June’s 29.8. Economists expected a higher reading of 28.9. Current conditions index also fell to 61.8 points from 67.7 in May, however still positive indicating a shift towards a domestically driven recovery in Germany. Nevertheless, the second quarter growth rate is expected to be lower than registered in the first quarter. This decline will also affect the Eurozone growth rate. German analyst and investor index is expected to plunge to 18.2.
US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. While this is a figure for June, it is still of high importance as the Fed watches it closely. The number of job openings rose to 4.64 million in May, and it is now predicted to advance to 4.74 million, showing further strength in the job market.
UK employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The Unemployment rate in Britain fell to 6.5% from March to May, reaching following 6.6% in the previous three months. The number jobseeker’s fell by 36,300 to 1.04 million. Prime Minister David Cameron noted that the rate of employment matched the record level set in 2005, indicating stronger British economy. However wage growth is at its lowest since 2009, while excluding bonuses average wage increases are their lowest since 2001. If this trend continues it will have a negative effect on economic growth. The number of jobless Britons is forecasted to decline 29,700 and the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.4%.
BOE Inflation Report: Wednesday, 9:30. Bank of England governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference in London about the inflation report. The Governor stated he was pleased with the rise in inflation, noting it came close to the BOE’s target of 2%. Market volatility is expected as Carney used previous reports to state out policy, making this quarterly event more important than the rate decisions.
US retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Retail sales in the U.S. advanced solidly in June. Core sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, edged up 0.6% following a revised 0.2% in May. Core sales are the best gauge for consumer spending component of gross domestic product. June’s gains indicate an upward trend in consumer spending in the second quarter. However retail sales gained only 0.2% in June after posting a 0.5% rise in May. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.2%, while core sales are predicted to edge up 0.4%.
German GDP: Thursday, 6:00. After Italy entered a recession and German industrial output disappointed, all eyes are on the euro-zone’s locomotive. The German economy is expected to squeeze by 0.1% in Q2 after growing very nicely at 0.8% in Q1. France is expected to grow by 0.1%, the same as all of the euro-zone. A small miss in German numbers could result in no growth for the zone.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of US initial Jobless claims fell 14,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 289,000. The reading was well below the 305,000 forecast by analysts, indicating the US labor market continues to improve strengthening the US economy. The four-week average declined 4,000 to 293,500. That’s the lowest average since February 2006. The number of workers continues to grow as well as higher waged which will boost consumer spending in the coming months. The number of initial jobless claims is expected to reach 307,000 this time.
UK GDP data: Friday, 8:30. Britain’s GDP for the second quarter is expected to confirm the the first estimate issued in July and show a quarterly gain of 0.8%. The anticipated advance marches the UK economy to pre-recession levels. The positive forecast indicates, recovery is back on track, but wage growth needs to rise in order to sustain long term recovery. The second GDP estimate is expec6ted to remain unchanged at 0.8% growth rate.
US PPI: Friday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices edged up 0.4% in June amid rising gasoline costs, but overall inflation remained tame. Analysts expected a smaller rise of 0.2% as posted in the previous month. Gas prices jumped 6.4%, Steel costs edged up 3%. But prices declined for grains, cheese and rental cars to offset some of those increases. Nevertheless, inflation remains tame with in the Fed’s 2% target. Low inflation has enabled the Fed to pursue extraordinary measures to boost the economy but can drag down wages and spark a recession. U.S. producer prices are expected to rise 0.1%.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 12:30. Consumer sentiment declined in July to 81.3 from 82.5 in June amid a fall in the consumer outlook index. Analysts expected the index to reach 83.5. Current economic conditions rose to 97.1 from 96.6, better than the 97.0 forecast. But consumer expectations plunged for a third straight month, to 71.1 from 73.5 below the 74.0 expected. Consumer sentiment is likely to improve to 82.7.




That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
08-11-2014, 07:51 PM
Financial Market Forecast for August 11-15


The commodities markets moved in an unclear trend last week as oil remained nearly flat, natural gas bounced back, silver traded down and gold rallied. On this week’s agenda: U.S consumer sentiment, GDP reports for the second quarter from Japan, EU, and GB, U.S PPI, Draghi testifies, U.S JOLTS report, China and U.S industrial production, BOJ minutes of last policy meeting, GB inflation report, Carney speaks, U.S retail sales, China’s new loans, and German ZEW economic sentiment. So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of August 11th to 15th.


(All times GMT):

Tuesday, August 12th

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for July. During June, the ZEW indicator for Germany fell again to 27.1 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to dwindle, the Euro could plausibly weaken against leading currencies;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for July, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding June, the number of jobs opening rose to 4.64 million;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some input behind its past meeting;
23:50 – Japanese GDP for Q2 – Preliminary estimate: In the first quarter of the year, the Japanese economy expanded by 1.6% and in the last quarter of 2013 by 0.3%; this time, the report will present the first estimate for the second quarter of the year. The current estimates are that economy contracted by 1.7%, year over year. This report could impact the progress of the Japanese yen;


Wednesday, August 13th

03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly update, China industrial production rose to an annual rate of 9.2%; if the growth rate keeps increasing, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a faster pace;
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report examines the movement in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the past update, this index grew by 0.3%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 36.3K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.5%;
10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;
10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2014 and 2015;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to July; in the previous report regarding June, retail sales edged up by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail rose by 0.4%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 8th;


Thursday, August 14th

07:00 –EU and German Second Quarter GDP 2014: In the first quarter of 2014, Germany’s economy expanded by 0.8%. The progress of the German economy is likely to impact the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may drag down the Euro;
10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the latest report, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of 0.4% as of July. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 8th; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims decreased by 14K to reach 289K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 8th;


Friday, August 15th

09:30 –GB Second Quarter GDP 2014: In the first quarter of 2014, GB grew by 0.8% in annual terms – slightly higher than in the previous quarter;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding June 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 1.6%;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to July 2014. In the previous report (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) regarding June, this index for finished goods grew by 0.4% compared with May’s level; the core PPI also rose by 0.2%; this news might impact the USD;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for June 2014. In the previous report regarding May 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $19.4 billion;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during July; as of June, the production changed direction and rose by 0.2%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index inched up to 81.3;

Samirofi
08-18-2014, 03:24 PM
Financial Market Forecast for August 18-22


Oil and natural gas continued to trade down on a weekly scale along with precious metals. These losses were recorded after the USD slightly recovered against leading currencies such as Euro and Yen and U.S equities traded up. On this week’s agenda: Minutes of FOMC meeting, Jackson Hole Symposium with Yellen and Draghi giving speeches, Philly Fed index, U.S CPI, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S existing home sales, GB CPI, and U.S housing starts. So let’s review the economic colander for the week of August 18th to 22nd.


(All times GMT):

Monday, August 18th

15:00 – U.S NAHB Housing Market Index: this measurement estimates the diffusion index based on surveyed home builders; in the past report, the index rose to 53.
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. The minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest rate decision;


Tuesday, August 19th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI increased to an annual rate of 1.9% during June. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could affect BOE’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for July 2014; in the past report, housing starts slightly declined to 960K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during June, building permits fell to 890K houses. If building permits continues to decline, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main shifts in the core consumer price index (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) for July 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during June, the CPI rose by 0.3%; the core CPI also inched up by 0.1%; this report could impact the USD and the FOMC’s monetary policy;
00:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to testify before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics, in Brisbane; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in May 2014 the Japanese trade balance deficit slightly widened to 1,080 billion yen (roughly $10.58 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;


Wednesday, August 20th

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the last MPC meeting, the Bank left its cash rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the Bank is likely to keep its rate unchanged, but we might see some hints about the future steps of the BOE;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 15th;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: In the last meeting at the end of July, the FOMC decided to taper again its asset purchase program by $10 billion to a pace of $25 billion a month. But it remains unclear the next significant change in policy will occur – i.e. the next rate hike. The upcoming minutes might provide some information on this decision, the FOMC’s future monetary steps and especially the decision process about raising its interest rate;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for August. Last month’s report regarding July 2014, the Manufacturing PMI rose again to 52 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is scaling up. If in the upcoming report the PMI index rises again, it means China’s manufacturing sector is improving;


Thursday, August 21st

2 days event – Jackson Hole Symposium: In this Economic Symposium we are expected to see Chair of the FOMC and President of ECB each give a speech at this event. This is one of the major economic events of the year;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly update regarding July 2014, France’s PMI dropped to 47.8 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting. Germany’s PMI slightly rose to 52.9 – the industry still grows at a faster pace. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may impact the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain inched up by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 15th; in the recent report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims rose by 21K to reach 311K;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the changes in U.S. existing home sales for July 2014; in the recent report regarding June, the number of homes sold increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million houses; if this trend continues, it may positively affect the U.S dollar;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding June, the growth rate rallied from +17.8 in June to +23.9 in July. If the index further rises, it may positively impact not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2013/bos0913.cfm));
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 15th;


Friday, August 22nd

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for June; in the previous report, the core CPI edged down by 0.1%;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: This report may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly linked with commodities. In the last report regarding May 2014, manufacturing sales inched up by 0.1%;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to talk in at the Jackson Hole Symposium about the labor markets specifically Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics;
18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will also give a speech regarding the labor markets.

Samirofi
08-25-2014, 10:32 PM
Financial Market Forecast for August 25-29


This week, the main U.S economic reports to be release are the GDP for the second quarter and the PCE. The core durable goods, consumer confidence and consumer sentiment will also be out during the week and may impact the financial markets. Also, a couple of housing figures will come out such as new and pending home sales. In Europe, the main reports will revolve around the flash CPI for EU. The monetary development, EU employment, German business climate and retail sales will also be released. In Canada, its GDP monthly update will be published. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of August 25th to 29th.


(All times GMT):


Tuesday, August 26th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding July will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of June (http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/table2p.pdf) 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods slipped to $242.3 billion – a 1.7% gain compared to May; if this report shows additional growth in new orders, then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last report for July, the consumer confidence index rose to 90.9, which suggests the consumer spending is picking up;


Wednesday, August 27th

09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the previous monthly update, the index inched up to 9. If the index continues to slowly rise, this could suggest the German economy keeps improving;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 22nd;
02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report shows the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the second quarter of 2014. As of the previous quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure declined again by 4.2% (Q-o-Q). If capital expenditures continue to drop, this trend may adversely affect the Aussie dollar;


Thursday, August 28th

Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for July 2014, the CPI edged up by 0.3%;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Update: In the previous unemployment update for July 2014, unemployment fell by 12K. The next report might impact the Euro;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of July 2014. In the previous June report (http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/stats/md/html/index.en.html), the annual growth rate for M3 increased to 1.5%; M1 also rose to 5.3%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector slipped to -1.7%. This news suggests the EU inflation is slowly picking up as the growth rate of M1 increased, and loans continue to shrink but at a slower pace;
13:30 – Second U.S GDP 2Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the first estimate the GDP grew by 4.1%, which was a lot better than in the first quarter. Back then the U.S GDP (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm) fell by 2.1%. The current estimates are that the GDP won’t change much and inch down to 3.9%. If the US gross domestic product continues to pick up, this could positively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 22nd; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims fell to 298K;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report (http://www.realtor.org/topics/pending-home-sales) shows the changes in pending home sales in the U.S during July; in the previous update for June, pending home sales index decreased by 1.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S housing market; if the index keeps falling, it may negatively impact the U.S dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 22nd;


Friday, August 29th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for July 2014, retail sales rose by 1.3%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This report projects the progress of the Swiss economy in the coming months;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for July, the annual CPI inched down to 0.4%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate doesn’t pick up, this could indicate the EU economy isn’t heating up. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s future cash rate decisions;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the rate of unemployment edged down again to 11.5%. This means the labor market in the Euro Area is only slowly progressing;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for June 2014. In the last update regarding May 2014, the real gross domestic product slightly rose by 0.4%;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm) index is another key measure the FOMC follows in assessing the progress of the inflation. In the past report, the price index of the PCE rose by 0.4% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. On an annual rate, the core PCE increased by only 1.5% – well below the FOMC’s inflation target.
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index slipped to 81.8;

Samirofi
09-02-2014, 05:37 PM
Financial Market Forecast for September 1-5


The market volatility in the markets is slowly returning as we are exiting the summer slumber and into September. We kickoff the month with rate decisions by ECB, BOJ, BOE, RBA and BOC, while in the U.S the NF payroll, manufacturing PMI and factory orders reports will be published. In addition, in Europe, German factory orders and EU retail sales will be come out. China’s manufacturing PMI and Australia’s GDP for the second quarter are some of the reports to be released from the other side of the globe and could move the markets. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of September 1st to 5th:


(All times GMT):


Tuesday, September 2nd

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA left its cash rate unchanged since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.5%. But the ongoing strengthening of the Aussie against leading currencies may slowly push the RBA to consider additional expanding measures. Nonetheless, RBA isn’t expected to make any changes in its cash rate in the forthcoming meeting;
09:30 – GB Construction PMI: In the previous monthly update, this index inched down to 62.4;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to August 2014. Back in July, the index bounced back to 57.1; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster pace; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;
02:30 – Australian GDP Second Quarter of 2014: This quarterly report will pertain to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2014. In the first quarter of 2014, the GDP grew by 1.1% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.4% gain in the second quarter. Australia is among the leading countries in exporting commodities such as oil, LNG, and metal ores to big economies such as China and Japan; if the GDP growth rate doesn’t pick up, it could bring down the Australia dollar
00:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the Committee for Economic Development of Australia Luncheon, in Adelaide; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;


Wednesday, September 3rd

09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index pulled up to 59.1; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to July 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.4% during June;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce of any shifts to its overnight rate – the rate is set at 1%. BOC isn’t expected to change its policy;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report presets the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in August; in the latest report factory orders rose by 1.1%; this report will offer some insight regarding the developments in the U.S economy;
01:30 – Australian Retail Sales: In the recent report referring to June, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.6%; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming update will pertain to July. In the last update, for June, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $1.68 billion deficit; the report will also show the changes in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest an increase in demand for non-monetary gold


Thursday, September 4th

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders declined by 3.2% during July;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the path of the Japanese yen;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will release its basic rate for August 2014; the MPC will also state of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; BOE governor Carney may hint of any changes in the rate in the coming months; as of last month, BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy for August. Following the previous decision from last month, Mario Draghi may refer to any future plans the ECB could take to jump start the EU economy; the main issue will remain whether Draghi will refer to any QE program or even as much as hint of such a program;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 29th; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims slipped by 1K to 298K;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll:ADP (http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/) will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for August 2014 that will be released on Friday;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the trade balance moved from $0.2 deficit in May to $1.9 billion surplus in June; if the trade balance shows a sharp change, it could move the Canadian dollar;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for June will present the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the last American trade balance (http://bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm) update regarding May the goods and services deficit narrowed to $41.5 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will pertain to August 2014. In the recent report, this index rose to 58.7% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster pace compared to the last month;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 29th;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 29th;


Friday, September 5th

06:00 – German Industrial Production: In the last report, industrial production inched up by 0.3%;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to July 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by 209K; the U.S unemployment rate edged up to 6.2%. In the past six reports, the average growth in employment was well above 200K. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain of over 200K (current estimates are at 222K), this could further pull up the USD and slightly drag down gold and silver;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for July 2014, unemployment inched down to 7%; the employment grew by 41.7K during last month;

Samirofi
09-08-2014, 07:51 PM
Financial Market Forecast for September 8-12


Most commodities tumbled down last week, while USD recovered against leading currencies mainly against the Euro after the recent ECB rate decision. This week, in the U.S several economic reports will be released including JOLTS, retail sales, consumer sentiment, and jobless claims. In Europe, EU and France’s industrial production will be released. GB’s manufacturing production and BOE’s Carney will speak. China’s CPI, new loans and trade balance report will come out. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of September 8th to 12th:


(All times GMT):


Tuesday, September 9th

00:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some insight behind its past meeting;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of July; in the last report regarding June 2014 the index increased by 0.3%;
09:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will give a speech in Liverpool;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for August, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding July, the number of jobs opening inched up to 4.67 million;


Wednesday, September 10th

06:45 – French Industrial Production: This report shows the shift in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index rose by 1.3%;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the previous monthly update, the total loans reached 385 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;
14:45 – Great Britain Inflation report hearing: In these hearings BOE Governor is expected to testify and refer to the British inflation and the bank’s economic outlook in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 5th;


Thursday, September 11th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding July 2014 the rate of unemployment rose to 6.4%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slipped by 0.3K people. This report could impact the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI remained at an annual rate of 2.3%; if the annual rate doesn’t pick up, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 5th; in the last report the jobless claims rose to 302K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of September 5th;


Friday, September 12th

04:30 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan will speak at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Graduation Ceremony, in Tokyo;
10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the past report, EU’s industrial production declined by 0.3%;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the latest economic changes in Europe, euro support mechanisms and government finances;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to August; in the previous report regarding July, retail sales remained unchanged (month-over-month); core retail edged up by 0.1%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index declined to 79.2;
03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly update, China industrial production slipped to an annual rate of 9%; if the growth rate keeps falling, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a faster pace;

Samirofi
09-16-2014, 07:14 PM
Financial Market Forecast for September 15 -19
The financial markets could stir up again this week as there are many news items on the agenda mainly the next FOMC meeting and the Scottish referendum. Last week, precious metals and oil resumed their downward trend, while the USD rallied against the yen and Aussie dollar. Other reports and events to unfold this week include: GB CPI, Philly Fed index, U.S CPI, FOMC Chair Yellen speaks, Canada’s manufacturing PMI, U.S industrial production, U.S PPI, BOJ governor Kuroda speaks, GB employment report, U.S housing starts, G20 Summit, and German ZEW economic sentiment. So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of September 15th to 19th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, September 15th

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during August; as of July, the production slightly rose again by 0.4%;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.5%; the minutes will provide some additional information regarding the last decision;

Tuesday, September 16th

06:30 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan will hold a press conference in Osaka;

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the previous report, the CPI declined to an annual rate of 1.6% during July. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could impact BOE’s monetary policy;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for August. During July, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped to 8.6 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment keep dwindling, the Euro could plausibly weaken against leading currencies;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding July 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 0.6%;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to August 2014. In the last report regarding July, this index for finished goods inched up by 0.1% compared with June’s level; the core PPI rose again by 0.2%; this news might impact the USD;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for July 2014. In the previous report regarding June 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $18.7 billion;

16:15 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to hold a press conference at the Drummondville Economic Development Society;

Wednesday, September 17th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report examines the change in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the past report, this index slipped by 0.2%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous month, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 33.6K; the rate of unemployment edged down to 6.4%;

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the previous MPC meeting, the Bank kept its cash rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; in the last meeting however the vote wasn’t unanimous at 2-0-7. This could indicate a show shift in the direction of BOE especially considering the upcoming Scottish referendum;

10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the latest report, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of 0.4% as of August. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main changes in the core consumer price index for August 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during July, the CPI inched up by 0.1%; the core CPI also grew by the same rate; this report could impact the USD and the FOMC’s monetary policy;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 12th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This highly expected FOMC meeting will take place between September 16th and 17th. This time, the FOMC will release an update to its economic outlook and FOMC Chair Yellen will hold a press conference. The FOMC is expected to announce its seventh tapering decision of its QE3 program by another $10 billion to $15 billion a month. The FOMC may also refer to any potential future changes to its future monetary policy in the press conference that follows the statement release, i.e. the timing of raise its cash rate. Even though the labor market is improving the past couple NF payroll report weren’t too impressive; also, the inflation remains stable around 2%; the GDP picked up in the second quarter but the economy is still growing at a slow pace, and a rate hike or even a hint of such a hike could have an adverse impact on the markets; this could mean in the press conference Yellen will deflect any questions about the rate hike. Conversely, she could talk about the exit strategy following the huge rise in the Fed’s balance sheet; if the tone of the press release and press conference remain slightly more hawkish, this could bring further down gold and silver prices;

Thursday, September 18th

07:35 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan is due to speak at the National Securities Industry Convention, in Tokyo;

08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: The Swiss National Bank will release its Libor rate decision; this decision could affect not only currencies markets but also commodities markets, assuming, the bank changes its Libor rate;

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain edged up by 0.1%;

13:45 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to deliver a speech at the Corporation for Enterprise Development’s 2014 Asset Leaning Conference in Washington DC, via satellite. The title of the speech is “The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding August, the growth rate rallied from +23.9 in July to +28 in August. If the index further increases, it may positively impact not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);

All Day –Scottish Independence Vote: This is the highly anticipated Scottish referendum to decide on whether Scotland will choose to become independent of GB; the outcome of this referendum could have a strong impact on the British pound; currently, the polls show a very close call;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for August 2014; in the previous report, housing starts grew to 1090K houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during July, building permits rose to 1050K houses. If building permits continues to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing recovering (the recent U.S building permits update);

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 12th; in the last report the jobless claims rose to 315K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 12th;

Friday, September 19th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will present the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for July; in the previous report, the core CPI edged down by 0.2%;

13:30 – Canada Wholesale Sales: In the last report regarding June 2014, wholesale sales rose by 0.6%;

All Day – G20 Meeting: The finance ministers of the top 20 economies are expected to meet and talk about the burning global economic issues on the agenda such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine;

Samirofi
09-22-2014, 10:12 AM
Financial Market Forecast for September 22-26


Following the FOMC meeting the commodities markets took a beating as oil, gold and silver tumbled down. These losses coincided with the recovery of USD against leading currencies such as Euro and Yen and the rally of U.S equities. On this week’s agenda: U.S GDP Q2 –final estimate, Draghi testifies, U.S existing home sales, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S new home sales, EU manufacturing PMI , Canada’s retail sales, EU monetary development, and U.S durable goods. So let’s review the economic colander for the week of September 22nd to 26th.

All times GMT):
Monday, September 22nd

14:00 – ECB President Draghi Testifies: ECB President will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee, in Brussels;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the shifts in U.S. existing home sales for August 2014; in the recent report regarding July, the number of homes sold increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million houses; if this trend continues, it may pull up the U.S dollar; the current expectations are for the annul rate to rise to 5.21 million houses;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for September. Last month’s report regarding August 2014, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.3 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI index falls again, it means China’s manufacturing sector isn’t growing slower – the current estimates are for the PMI to inched down and reach 50;


Tuesday, September 23rd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly update regarding August 2014, France’s PMI fell to 46.5 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting faster. Germany’s PMI slipped to 52 – the industry still grows at a slower pace. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities rates;
09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: According to last month’s update, public net borrowing reached a deficit of $1.1 billion; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: This report may impact the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the last update regarding June 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 1.5%;


Wednesday, September 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index consists of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of September. In the last report regarding August 2014, the business climate index declined to 106.3 – the current estimates are that the index will fall to 105.9;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to August 2014; in the previous report (opens pdf; for July), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 412,000 – nearly 1.4% gain (month-over-month); if the number of home sales continues to pull up, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is recovering – current estimates are for a gain to annual rate of 432K;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 19th;
00:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the Melbourne Economic Forum; this speech may impact the Aussie dollar;


Thursday, September 25th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of August 2014. In the previous July report, the annual growth rate for M3 increased to 1.8%; M1 also rose to 5.6%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector declined to -1.6%. This news suggests the EU inflation is slowly rising as the growth rate of M1 increased, and loans continue to shrink but at a slower pace;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding August will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of July 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods reached to $300.2 billion – a 22.6% gain compared to June; if this report shows additional growth in new orders, then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 18th; in the recent report the jobless claims fell to 280K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 19th;


Friday, September 26th

09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the previous monthly update, the index slipped to 8.6. If the index continues to slowly falling, this could suggest the German economy isn’t improving;
13:30 – Final U.S GDP 2Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the third and final estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the second estimate the GDP grew by 4.2%, which was slightly higher than the first estimate and much better than in the first quarter. Back then the U.S GDP fell by 2.9%. The current estimates are that the GDP will slightly pick up to 4.6%. If the US gross domestic product continues to grow, this could positively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 82.5;

Samirofi
10-06-2014, 12:16 PM
Financial Market Forecast for October 6-10


Following the better than expected NF payroll report, in which the USD rallied, while precious metals took a nose dive, this week the U.S JOLTS report will complete the NF payroll report; this report may offer another data point about the progress of the labor market. The minutes of the FOMC meeting will also be published. In Europe, BOE will decide its cash rate, ECB President Draghi will give a speech, and Germany factory orders will be released. China’s new loan and Australia and Canada’s employment reports will be published. RBA will also announce its cash rate for the month. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of October 6th to 10th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, October 6th

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders rose by 4.6% during August;
15:00 – Canada Ivy PMI: This index is based on surveyed purchasing managers; last time, the PMI declined to 50.9, which shows growth but at slower pace;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may impact the Japanese yen;


Tuesday, October 7th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged since September of last year. The current rate is set at 2.5%. But the recent weakening of the Aussie against the USD may impact RBA members’ decision on the cash rate. For now, RBA isn’t expected to make any changes in its cash rate in the coming meeting;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of August; in the last report regarding July 2014 the index rose again by 0.3%;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for September, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding August, the number of jobs opening remained unchanged at 4.67 million;
00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. It could provide an indication to the progress of the Japanese economy. In the previous monthly update the surplus in the current account slid to 0.10 trillion yen;


Wednesday, October 8th

Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held during the second week of September, the average rate reached 2.54% – slightly higher than last month’s bond auction;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 3rd;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: In the previous meeting back in September, the FOMC decided to taper again its asset purchase program by $10 billion to a pace of $15 billion a month. The FOMC also updated its economic outlook and revised upward its estimate for the federal rate by the end of next year. But the statement kept the phrase “considerable time” and the timing of the rate hike and pace is still unclear. The upcoming minutes might provide some insight into the deliberations among FOMC members;

Thursday, October 9th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding August 2014 the rate of unemployment slipped to 6.1%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) hiked by 121K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/mf/6202.0));
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will come out with its basic rate for September 2014; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; BOE governor Carney may hint of any shifts in the rate anytime soon; as of last month, BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 3rd; in the previous report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims slipped to 287K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of October 3rd;
16:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak about the recent developments in Europe, at the Brookings Institution, in Washington DC;
All Day – G20 Meeting: The finance ministers of the top 20 economies will meet and talk about the burning global economic issues on the agenda such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine;


Friday, October 10th

00:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some insight behind its past meeting;
06:45 – French Industrial Production: This report shows the changes in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index rose by 0.2%;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly update, the total loans reached 703 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for August 2014, unemployment remained at 7%; the employment contracted by 11K;
15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic outlook. This report could also reflect the potential developments in BOC’s monetary policy;

Samirofi
10-14-2014, 02:44 AM
Financial Market Forecast for October 13 -17


The recovery in the USD took a turn as its fell against leading currencies. The huge selloffs also led to a rally for precious metals prices. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting (http://www.tradingnrg.com/market-movers-19-state-of-the-us-job-market-fomc-minutes-rundown-and-falling-oil/) along with the revised down IMF economic outlook contributed to the recent fall of the USD. This week the main reports, speeches and events include: China’s CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S retail sales, Philly Fed index, U.S PPI, FOMC Chair Yellen speaks, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S industrial production, Canada’s CPI, GB employment report, ECOFIN summit and U.S housing starts. So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of October 13th to 17th.


(All times GMT):

Tuesday, October 14th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the previous report, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 1.5% during August. The current projections are for the CPI are that it had inched down again to 1.4% for September. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could impact BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for September. During August, the ZEW indicator for Germany fell to 6.9 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment further dwindles, the Euro could plausibly weaken against leading currencies;
10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the recent report, EU’s industrial production rose by 1%; this economic report is another indicator for the progress of the EU economy; the current estimates are for this week’s report to show a 1.5% drop in industrial production, month over month;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate keeps falling, it could signal the Chinese economy is cooling down;


Wednesday, October 15th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 37.2K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.2%;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to September; in the last report regarding August, retail sales rose by 0.6% (month-over-month); core retail also increased by 0.3%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.3% gain in core retail sales in September;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to September 2014. In the previous report (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm) regarding August, this index for finished goods remained flat compared with July’s level; the core PPI rose again by 0.1%; this news may impact the USD;
19:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the grand opening of the European Cultural Days 2014 organized by the European Central Bank, in Frankfurt;
10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the previous report, the CPI remained unchanged at an annual rate of 0.4% as of September. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

Thursday, October 16th

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding August 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 2.5%;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding September, the growth rate slipped from +28 in August to +22.5 in September. If the index falls again, it may adversely impact not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review (http://www.phil.frb.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/));
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 10th; in the last report (http://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf) the jobless claims fell to 287K;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during September; as of August, the production inched down by 0.1%;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 10th;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 10th;


Friday, October 17th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will present the shifts in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for August; in the last report, the core CPI rose by 0.5%;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for September 2014; in the previous report, housing starts declined to 960K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during August, building permits rose slipped to 1,000K houses. If building permits change direction and rally, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing recovering (the recent U.S building permits update (http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf));
13:30 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to deliver a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Conference on Inequality of Business Opportunity, in Boston. The title of the speech is “Economic Opportunity;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 84.6;

Samirofi
10-27-2014, 08:39 PM
Financial Market Forecast for October 27-31
Major commodities including gold, silver and crude oil resumed their downward trend, while the U.S. gained some of its losses back from earlier this month. This week the main events will revolve around the before last FOMC meeting for the year and the U.S. GDP for the third quarter first estimate. These two events could bring back a lot of volatility to the financial markets especially if they will come off the current market expectations. In the U.S. core PCE, durable goods, pending home sales consumer confidence and consumer sentiment reports will also be released. In Europe, ECB stress tests results, German business climate, the flash CPI and unemployment report will come out. China’s manufacturing PMI and BOJ’s rate decision will be on this week’s agenda. Finally, Canada’s GDP will also be published. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of October 27th to October 31st:


(All times GMT):


Tuesday, October 28th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding September will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of August 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined to $244.7 billion – a 18.4% drop compared to July; if this report shows growth in new orders, then it could pull up the USD;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last report for September, the consumer confidence index fell to 86, which suggests the consumer spending is slowing down. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index picked up to 87.4;



Wednesday, October 29th


19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This will be the penultimate meeting for the year. The current expectations are that the FOMC will keep its policy on track and end QE3 and eliminate the last $15 billion a month purchase program. The recent interview of Bullard raised the possibility of the FOMC holding off the last taper. But this scenario, for now, seems very unlikely. One other issue to look for is whether the FOMC will drop the “considerable time” phrase from its statement. In this meeting, there isn’t a press conference so it’s more likely that the FOMC will hold off any major changes until the last meeting of the year. If the tone of the press remains slightly more hawkish, this could drag down gold and silver prices;
21:15 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce, in Ottawa;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 24th;



Thursday, October 30th


Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for September 2014, the CPI remained flat. This time the expectations are for the CPI to inch down by 0.1%;

13:30 – First U.S GDP 3Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2014 real GDP growth. The first estimate tends to have the strongest impact on the financial market. In the last estimate the U.S GDP grew by 4.6% in the second quarter of 2014. If the US gross domestic product doesn’t pick up, this could negatively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices; the current estimates are for the GDP to grow by 3.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 24th; in the last report the jobless claims picked up to 283K;
14:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to deliver opening remarks at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession, in Washington DC;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of October 24th;
00:30 – Australia PPI: In the last PPI report for the second quarter, the PPI inched down by 0.1%;



Friday, October 31st


Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any shifts to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may impact the Japanese yen;
06 – BOJ’s Outlook Report: This is a biannual report that is released on April and October. It sums up Bank of Japan’s forecast for the Japanese economy; based on this outlook, it could provide some indication about the future steps of BOJ;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for September 2014, retail sales rose by 2.5%; this month’s estimates are for a drop of 0.8%;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the previous estimate for September, the annual CPI remained flat at 0.3%. The core CPI edged down to 0.7%. In either case, it’s well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate doesn’t puck up, this could indicate the EU economy isn’t improving. The current estimates are for the inflation to edge up to 0.4% and the core CPI to rise to 0.8%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the rate of unemployment didn’t change at 11.5%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area isn’t progressing;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the changes in major industrial sectors for August 2014. In the last update regarding July 2014, the real gross domestic product remained flat; the current expectations are for the GDP to remain unchanged again;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another measure the FOMC follows to assess the progress of the inflation. In the last update, the price index of the PCE rose by 0.5% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up again by 0.1%. On an annual rate, the core PCE rose by only 1.5%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent update, the sentiment index increased again to 84.6;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of August, the Manufacturing PMI remained flat at 51.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slow pace. Analysts estimate China’s PMI didn’t change in the past quarter again;

Samirofi
11-24-2014, 04:03 PM
Financial Market Forecast for November 24-28
The recent decision of People Bank of China to cut its deposit rate by 25 bp and one year lending rate by 40 bp is the first step Beijing made towards dealing with the country’s economic slowdown. This news has provided backwind for commodities prices as this could indicate China is willing to change its policy in order to jump start the economy. In the U.S. the minutes of the FOMC remained relatively hawkish and didn’t provide much drama. This week, the U.S. GDP for Q3, core PCE, durable goods, new and pending home sales, consumer confidence and consumer sentiment reports will also be released. In Europe, German business climate, EU monetary developments, flash CPI and unemployment report will be published. Australia Private New Capital Expenditure, OPEC summit, Canada’s GDP, and BOJ’s monetary policy meeting will be on this week’s agenda. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of November 24th to November 28th:


(All times GMT):


Monday, November 24th


09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index consists of the changes (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of November. In the October report, the business climate index slipped to 103.2 – the current expectations are that the index will edge down to 103;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer input behind its recent meeting;
01:00 & 04:45 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan is due to speak in Nagoya; later he is expected to give another speech at the Paris EUROPLACE International Financial Forum, in Tokyo;



Tuesday, November 25th


10:00 –BOE Gov Carney Speaks: The Governor will speak, along with other MPC members, at the hearing of the Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee, in London;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding August 2014, manufacturing sales declined by 0.3%; current estimates are for a 0.4% gain in the upcoming report;
13:30 – Second U.S GDP 3Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the first estimate the GDP rose by 3.5%; this was higher than market estimates of 3.1%. Back in the first quarter the U.S GDP grew by 4.6%. The current estimates are that the GDP won’t change much and inch down to 3.3%. If the US gross domestic product shows higher growth rate, this could positively impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for October, the consumer confidence index spiked to 94.5; this suggests consumer spending is growing. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index picked up to 95.9;



Wednesday, November 26th


09:30 –GB Third Quarter GDP 2014: In the second quarter of 2014, GB grew by 0.8% in annual terms – the same as in the previous quarter; the projections are for a 0.7% gain in the third quarter;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding October will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of September 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined to $246.2 billion – a 0.3% gain compared to August; if this report shows growth in new orders, then it could pull up the USD;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 21st; in the last report the jobless claims rose to 291K;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another measure the FOMC follows to assess of inflation. In the last report, the PCE index inched down by 0.2% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up again by 0.1%. The expectations are for a 0.4% gain in PCE and 0.1% rise in core PCE for the forthcoming report;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent update, the sentiment index rose again to 86.9;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to October 2014; in the previous report (opens pdf; for September), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 467,000 – a 7.3% drop (month-over-month); if the number of home sales doesn’t pick up, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S isn’t recovering– current estimates are for a contraction to an annual rate of 471K;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report shows the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S during October; in the previous update for September, pending home sales index increased by 0.3% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the changes of the U.S housing market; if the index keeps rising, it may positively impact the U.S dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of November 21st;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 21st;
02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report presents the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the third quarter of 2014. As of the recent quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure rose by 1.1% (Q-o-Q). If capital expenditures falls again, this may adversely affect the Aussie dollar;



Thursday, November 27th


Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for October 2014, the CPI declined by 0.3%. This time the expectations are for the CPI to remain flat;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of October 2014. In the previous September report, the annual growth rate for M3 increased to 2.5%; M1 also rallied to 6.2%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector declined to -0.6%. This news suggests the EU inflation is slowly rising as the growth rate of M1 increased, and loans continue to shrink but at a slower pace; the current estimates are that M3 edged up to 2.6%;
All Day – OPEC Meeting: This is the last meeting for this year for OPEC members, in which the members will decides on any changes to the OPEC’s oil production quota; this meeting could be more interesting considering the latest developments in the oil market;


Friday, November 28th


07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for October 2014, retail sales fell by 3.2%; this month’s estimates are for a gain of 1.7%;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for October, the annual CPI remained inched up to 0.4%. The core CPI didn’t change at 0.7%. In either case, it’s well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to edge down to 0.3% and the core CPI remained flat at 0.7%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the rate of unemployment didn’t change at 11.5%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area isn’t progressing;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for September 2014. In the last update regarding August 2014, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.1%; the current expectations are for the GDP to rise by 0.4%;

Samirofi
12-01-2014, 06:51 PM
Financial Market Forecast for December 1-5
Following the thanksgiving break, the markets will start working normal again. This week, the NF payroll report will take center stage in the U.S. Other financial reports from the U.S. include manufacturing PMI, factory orders and trade balance monthly updates. In Europe, ECB and MPC rate decisions will take place. GB’s manufacturing PMI and Germany factory orders will also be released. In China, manufacturing PMI will be published. In Canada, BOC will also make a rate decision and employment and trade balance reports will released. Finally, in Australia, GDP for Q3, RBA’s rate decision, and trade balance are the top headlines for the week. So let’s review in detail the agenda for the week of December 1st to 5th:


(All times GMT):


Monday, December 1st


02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of September, the Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sector is expanding growing at a slower pace. Analysts currently estimate that China’s PMI slipped again in the past month;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate for its November’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.4 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a faster pace. If the updated PMI index falls – current estimates are at 50, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing down again;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During August, Great Britain’s manufacturing index bounced back to 53.2 – market expectations are that in September the PMI inched down to 53.2;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to November 2014. Back in October, the index rose to 59; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster rate; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to fall to 57.9;



Tuesday, December 2nd


05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA left its cash rate flat since September of 2013. The current rate is set at 2.5%. China’s recent rate cut and Japan’s ongoing expanding monetary policy are likely to influence RBA to consider changing its monetary policy as these countries are working towards devaluing their currencies. Nonetheless, the current expectations are for no change in policy;
09:30 – GB Construction PMI: In the previous monthly update, this index dropped to 61.4;
13:30 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Janet Yellen is expected to deliver opening remarks at the 2014 College Fed Challenge National Finals, in Washington DC;
02:30 – Australian GDP Third Quarter of 2014: This quarterly report will refer to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2014. In the second quarter of 2014, the GDP grew by 0.5% (seasonally adjusted). Currently, the estimates are for a 0.7% gain in the third quarter. Australia is among the leading countries in exporting commodities such as oil, LNG, and metal ores to big economies such as China and Japan; if the GDP growth rate doesn’t pick up, it could bring down the Australia dollar (see here last update);



Wednesday, December 3rd


09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index dropped again to 56.2; this index may impact the direction of the British Pound;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for November 2014 that will be published on Friday;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce its overnight rate for next month – the rate is set at 1%. The BOC isn’t likely to change its cash rate;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to November 2014. In the previous report, this index declined to 57.1% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower rate compared to the last month; current estimates are for the PMI to rise back to 57.5;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 28th;

22:30 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to speak the Canada Summit, in Toronto;


Thursday, December 4th


01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the previous report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.2%;
01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The forthcoming report will pertain to October. In the last update, for September, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $2.26 billion deficit; the report will also show the changes in the exports of gold; if gold exports fall, it might suggest a drop in demand for non-monetary gold (see here the previous update);
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for December 2014; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; the current expectations are for no changes to the rate at this point in time; BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion, as of last month;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce of any shifts to its monetary policy for December. This time, Mario Draghi may offer some additional information regarding ECB’s future plans to implement its ABS program;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 28th; in the recent report the jobless claims rose again to 313K;
15:00 – Canada Ivy PMI: This index is based on surveyed purchasing managers; last time, the PMI dropped to 51.2, which shows growth at a slower pace;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of November 28th;


Friday, December 5th


06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last update, factory orders rose by 0.8% during October;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the recent report, the trade balance moved from $0.6 billion deficit in August to $0.7 billion surplus in September; if the trade balance shows a sharp shift, it could move the Canadian dollar;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for September will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding August the goods and services deficit expanded to $43 billion;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to October 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by 214K – slightly lower than anticipated; the U.S unemployment rate edged down again to 5.8%. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain of well above 200K (current estimates are at 225K), this could further strengthen the USD and drag down precious metals;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for October 2014, unemployment declined to 6.5%; the employment rose by 43.1K;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report presents the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in November; in the latest report regarding October factory orders slipped by 0.6%; current projections are for a 0.2% fall in the previous month;

Samirofi
12-08-2014, 05:22 PM
Financial Market Forecast for December 8 -12
The recent NFP payroll report showed a higher than expected gain of 321K jobs in November. This news was enough to bring down gold and silver and pull back up U.S. dollar against the yen and Aussie dollar. Looking forward, this week’s second targeted LTRO program will take the center stage and could move the markets. Besides this event, in the U.S. several key economic reports will be released including: JOLTS, retail sales, jobless claims, PPI, and consumer sentiment. Japan’s GDP for Q3 will be released. China’s news loans, CPI, and trade balance will be published. The Libor rate of SNB will be announced. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of December 8th to 12th.


(All times GMT):


Monday, December 8th


00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. It could provide an indication to the progress of the Japanese economy. In the preceding monthly update the surplus in the current account expanded to 0.41 trillion yen;
00:50 – Japan’s GDP for Q3: This will be the final estimate for Japan’s GDP growth rate in the third quarter. The current expectations are it will show a modest fall of 0.1%. This comes after the economy contracted by 1.8% in the second quarter;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the previous monthly update, China’s trade balance grew to a $45.4 billion surplus; the current estimates are for the trade balance to shrink to $44.3 billion;
All Day – Euro-group Meetings: These meetings are held in Brussels and include meetings among Euro-group President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank;



Tuesday, December 9th


01:30 – Australia’s NAB Business Confidence: This report measures the diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry; last time the index fell again to 4;

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of October; in the last report regarding September 2014 the index rose again by 0.4%;

All Day – ECOFIN Meetings: ECOFIN is the Euro zone’s broadest financial decision making body. The meetings among EU Finance Ministers will revolve around the recent economic developments in the Euro zone may include talks about the ongoing low inflation, debt problems and high unemployment;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for November, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update regarding October, the number of jobs opening slipped to 4.74 million; current market predictions are for the number to rise again to 4.81 million;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI remained at an annual rate of 1.6%; if the annual rate remains flat, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up; the current expectations are for the CPI to remain unchanged again;



Wednesday, December 10th


06:45 – French Industrial Production: This report shows the development in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index remained flat;

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly update, the total loans dropped to 548 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 5th;



Thursday, December 11th


02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding October 2014 the rate of unemployment inched up to 6.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 24.1K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: The Swiss National Bank will publish its Libor rate decision; this decision could affect not only currencies markets but also commodities markets, assuming, the bank changes its Libor rate; this rate decision will be accompanied with and SNB press conference;
10:15 – Targeted LTRO: This will be among the main events of the week. In the recent ECB rate decision, Draghi remained unclear and taking the same “let’s wait and see” approach. But he the tone of this speech was still dovish enough to bring down the Euro/USD. He also hinted a full blown QE program could be in the workings by next year. In any case, the success of this program of targeted loans could be a key factor for the possibility and timing of launching a QE program. This is the second of two tranches that were announced by the ECB to lend banks cash for lending it to people and companies; the first one only brought in 82.6 billion Euros – lower than expected.
13:00 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is due to hold a press conference 80 minutes after the speaking time listed;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to November; in the last report regarding October, retail sales rose by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail also rallied by 0.3%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.1% growth in core retail sales in November;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 5th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 297K; the expectations are for this number to inch up to 299K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 5th;



Friday, December 12th


03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the last monthly report, China industrial production slipped to an annual rate of 7.7%; if the growth rate keeps falling (current outlook is for a growth rate of 7.6%), it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a slower pace;
10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the recent report, EU’s industrial production rose by 0.6%; this economic report is another indicator for the progress of the EU economy; the current estimates are for this week’s report to show a 0.2% gain in industrial production, month over month;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to November 2014. In the previous report regarding October, this index for finished goods inched up by 0.2% compared with September’s level; the core PPI rose by 0.4%; this news may impact the USD;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index increased to 89.4;

Samirofi
12-22-2014, 11:09 AM
Financial Market Forecast for December 22-26


This high volatility in the past few days is likely to wind down this week as the holiday season is upon us. Nonetheless, several key economic reports are expected to be released in the first few days of the week in the U.S. including: final estimate of GDP for Q3, core PCE, durable goods, new and existing home sales, consumer. In Japan, the minutes of BOJ’s last meeting will be released along BOJ’s Kuroda will give a speech on Wednesday in Tokyo. So let’s review the main events and reports for the week of December 22nd to December 26th:


(All times GMT):


Monday, December 22nd

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for November 2014; in the recent report regarding October, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million houses; the current expectations are for the annul rate to slide to 5.21 million houses;


Tuesday, December 23rd

09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. According to the previous update, the deficit expanded to 23.1 billion pounds;
09:30 – Final GB GDP 3Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the last estimate of GB’s third quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the preceding estimate GB’s GDP grew by 0.7%. Currently, the market expectations are for the GDP to remain at a growth rate of 0.7%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the changes in major industrial sectors for October 2014. In the last update regarding September 2014, the real gross domestic product rallied by 0.4%; the current expectations are for the GDP to inch up by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding November will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of October 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $246.4 billion – a 0.1% gain compared to September; if this report shows growth in new orders, then it could pull up the USD;
13:30 – Third U.S GDP 3Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the third and final estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP rose by 3.9%; this was higher than market expectations. Back in the second quarter the U.S GDP grew by 4.6%. The current estimates are that the GDP will be revised up to 4.3%. If the US gross domestic product shows higher growth rate, this could positively impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to November 2014; in the previous report (opens pdf; for October), the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 458,000 – a 2% fall (month-over-month); current estimates are for a slight gain to an annual rate of 461,000;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another measure the FOMC follows to assess of inflation. In the last report, the PCE index edged up by 0.2% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) also rose by the same rate. The expectations are for a 0.5% gain in PCE and 0.1% rise in core PCE for the upcoming report;



Wednesday, December 24th

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to increase and reach 99.2;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 19th; in the last report the jobless claims slipped to 289K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of December 19th;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 19th;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer input behind its recent meeting;
02:45 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan is due to speak in Tokyo;


Holiday on Thursday &Friday December 25th – 26th

Happy Chirstmats

Samirofi
01-05-2015, 07:16 PM
Financial Market Preview for January 5-9

The first full week of 2015 is upon us and the markets are likely to heat up from their holiday slumber. The main news headlines from the U.S. including minutes of the recent FOMC meeting and the NF payroll report. Other financial reports from the U.S. include non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders and trade balance monthly reports. In Europe, MPC rate decision will take place. The EU flash CPI, unemployment report, GB’s manufacturing PMI and Germany retail sales will also be released. In China, CPI and trade balance will be published. There are also several economic reports from Canada and Australia. So let’s break down the agenda for the week of January 5th to 9th:

(All times GMT):

Tuesday, January 6th

01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The next report will pertain to November. In the previous update, for October, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $1.32 billion deficit; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the previous update);
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index bounced back to 58.9; this index may impact the direction of the British Pound;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to December 2014. In the last report, this index rose to 59.3% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate compared to the last month; current estimates are for the PMI to slide back to 58.2;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report presents the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in December; in the latest report regarding November factory orders declined again by 0.7%; current projections are for a 0.3% fall during last month;


Wednesday, January 7th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for November 2014, retail sales rose by 1.9%; this month’s estimates are for a gain of 0.2%;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the previous estimate for November, the annual CPI reached only 0.3%. The core CPI didn’t change at 0.7%. In either case, it’s well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to fall to 0% and the core CPI edge down to 0.6%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the rate of unemployment remained flat at 11.5%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area isn’t progressing;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for December 2014 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the recent report, the trade balance moved from $0.7 billion surplus in September to $0.1 billion deficit in October;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for September will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the previous American trade balance update regarding October the goods and services deficit expanded to $43.4 billion; current projections are for the deficit to decline to $42.3 billion;
15:00 – Canada Ivy PMI: This index is based on surveyed purchasing managers; last time, the PMI rose to 56.8, which shows growth at a faster pace;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 2nd;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: This will be among the main events of the week. In the last 2014 meeting back in December, the FOMC decided to change the wording of the statement. The FOMC tried to create a well balanced message that won’t lean towards the hawks or the doves. So even though the FOMC cut down the “considerable time” phrase as a policy guideline, they still kept it as reference for their current policy. As a result the statement was a bit convoluted and didn’t too much new information about the next move of the Fed, i.e. any news about raising rates. The minutes may offer insight behind the recent statement, which had the most dissenters in recent years;


Thursday, January 8th

06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders rose by 2.5% during November;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to November 2014. In the previous report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.4% during October;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will publish its basic rate for January 2015; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; the current expectations are for no changes to the rate at this point in time; BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion, as of last month;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 2nd; in the latest report, the jobless claims slipped again to 298K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of January 2nd;


Friday, January 9th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.4%;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 1.4%; if the annual rate remains low, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up; the current expectations are for the CPI to slightly rise to 1.5%;
07:45 – French Industrial Production: This report presents the development in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index declined by 0.8%;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of November; in the last report regarding October 2014 the index declined by 0.7%; this time, the estimates are for 0.4% gain in November;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the previous employment report referring to November 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 321K – higher than expected; the U.S unemployment rate remained flat at 5.8%. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain (current estimates are at 241K), this could further strengthen the USD and bring down bullion prices;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for November 2014, unemployment edged up to 6.6%; the employment slipped by 10.7K;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly update, China’s trade balance grew to a $54.5 billion surplus; the current estimates are for the trade balance to shrink to $48.9 billion;

Samirofi
01-13-2015, 02:03 PM
Financial Market Preview for January 12 -16


The last NFP payroll report didn’t cause too many waves in the markets as it showed a 252K gain in jobs in December – inline with market expectations. Moreover, the recent minutes of the FOMC meeting also didn’t stir up the markets as they were relatively well balanced. Looking forward, this week’s main publications and events include: China’s trade balance, U.S. JOLTS, EU CPI, U.S. retail sales, BOC business outlook, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. CPI and PPI, EU industrial production, GB CPI, Philly Fed index, consumer sentiment, China’s news loans, European Court of Justice Ruling and U.S. industrial production. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of January 12th to 16th.


(All times GMT):


Tuesday, January 13th

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the latest monthly update, the total loans rose to 853 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;
09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last update, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 1% during November. The current projections are for that it will fall to 0.7% for December. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could impact BOE’s monetary policy;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for December, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update regarding November, the number of jobs opening rose to 4.83 million; current market predictions are for the number to rise again to 4.91 million;


Wednesday, January 14th

Tentative – European Court of Justice Ruling: The European Court of Justice will announce a ruling on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism and Fiscal Compact, in Brussels;
10:00 – EU’s Industrial Production: In the recent report, EU’s industrial production edged up by 0.1%; this economic report is another indicator for the progress of the EU economy; the current estimates are for this week’s report to show no gain in industrial production, month over month;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to December; in the last report regarding November, retail sales rose by 0.7% (month-over-month); core retail also rallied by 0.5%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.2% gain in core retail sales in December;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 9th;


Thursday, January 15th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding November 2014 the rate of unemployment inched up to 6.3%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 42.7K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to December 2014. In the previous report regarding November, this index for finished goods slipped by 0.2% compared with the preceding month’s level; the core PPI remained unchanged; this news may impact the USD;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 9th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 294K; the expectations are for this number to rose to 299K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding December, the growth rate fell from +40.8 in November to +24.5 in December. If the index continues to fall, it may adversely impact not only U.S. Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 9th;


Friday, January 16th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the flash estimate, the CPI dropped to an annual rate of -0.2% as of December. This number means the EU is technically in deflation. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for December 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during November, the CPI declined by 0.3% the core CPI inched up by 0.1%; this report could impact the USD and change the FOMC’s monetary policy;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during December; as of November, industrial production rose by 1.3%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index rose again to 93.8;

Samirofi
02-02-2015, 09:05 PM
Financial Market Preview for February 2-6


Last week continued the high volatility following the recent FOMC policy meeting and US’s GDP fourth quarter release. This week is also entails important financial reports from the US most notably the non-farm payroll, manufacturing PMI, PCE, and factory orders and trade balance – just to name a few. Canada will also release its monthly update on employment and trade balance. In Europe, BOE will announce of any changes to its rate. Also, German factory orders, GB’s manufacturing PMI and Germany retail sales, and Spain’s unemployment update will also be published. In China, manufacturing PMI will be released. Finally, in the country down under the RBA rate decision, trade balance report and RBA’s monetary policy statement are the main events for the week. So let’s review the agenda for the week of February 2nd to 6th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 2nd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final update): This is HSBC’s recent update for its January’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI edged down again to 49.6 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contacting. Current estimates are at 49.8 — so China’s manufacturing conditions are still slowing down only a slower pace;
08:00 – Spanish Unemployment change: In the previous report for December 2014 the number of unemployed fell by 64.4K;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During December, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 52.5 – market expectations are that in January the PMI inched up to 52.9;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another index the FOMC follows to assess of inflation. In the previous report, the PCE index rose by 0.6% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) remained flat. The expectations are for a 0.1% fall in PCE and no change in core PCE for the upcoming report;
15:00 – US Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to January 2015. Back in December, the index slipped to 55.5; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to decline to 54.9;


Tuesday, February 3rd

01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The next report will pertain to December. In the previous update, for November, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $0.93 billion deficit; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA left its cash rate unchanged since September of 2013. But BOC’s recent rate cut and the ongoing weakness in China could start to push the needle for RBA to cut down its cash rate, which is still at 2.5%. Nonetheless, the current expectations are for no change in policy this time;
15:00 – US Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in January; in the latest report regarding December factory orders dropped again by 0.7%; current projections are for a 1.8% decline for last month;


Wednesday, February 4th

09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the previous report, this index declined to 55.8; this index may impact the direction of the British Pound;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for January 2015 that will be published on Friday;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to January 2015. In the last report, this index slipped to 56.2 — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower rate compared to the last month; current estimates are for the PMI to bounce back to 56.6;
15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 30th;


Thursday, February 5th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade inched up by 0.1%;
06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders dropped by 2.4% during December;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will release its basic rate for February 2015; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; the current expectations are for no changes to the rate at this point in time; BOE’s interest rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion, as of last month;
13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 30th; in the previous report, the jobless claims dropped again to 265K;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the trade balance moved from $0.1 billion surplus in October to $0.6 billion deficit in November;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for December will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the previous American trade balance update regarding November the goods and services deficit contracted to $39 billion; current projections are for the deficit to decline to $38 billion;
15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of January 30th;


Friday, February 6th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report pertaining to the Bank’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to December 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 252K – inline with market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate inched down again to 5.6%. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain (current projections are at 231K), this could further strengthen the USD and bring back down the prices of precious metals;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for December 2014, unemployment remained flat at 6.6%; the employment slipped by 4.3K;

Samirofi
02-16-2015, 11:05 PM
Financial Market Preview for February 16 -20


The volatility in the financial markets continues as the tensions between ECB and Greece’s new elected government progresses. This week, the Euro group and ECOFIN summits are likely to further discuss the Greek debt situation. Other publications and events to consider this week include: minutes of FOMC meeting, Japan’s trade balance, U.S. PPI, Japan’s GDP for Q4, U.S. retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. industrial production, GB CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. housing starts, Philly Fed index, consumer sentiment, minutes of ECB and RBA’s policy meetings, and German flash manufacturing PMI. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of February 16th to 20th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 16th
23:50 – Japanese GDP for Q4 – Preliminary estimate: In the third quarter of the year, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.4% and in the second quarter it also fell by 1.7%; this time, the report will present the first estimate for the fourth quarter of the year. The current estimates are that economy expanded by 0.9%, year over year;
All Day – Euro-group Meetings: These meetings are held in Brussels and include meetings among Euro-group President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank; this time the meeting is likely to keep revolving around the Greek debt;

Tuesday, February 17th
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its cash rate by 0.25 pp to 2.25%; the minutes will provide some additional input regarding the last rate cut;
09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last report, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 0.5% during December. The current projections are for that it will decline again to 0.3% for January. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could impact BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next update will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for January. During December, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 48.4 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to rise, this may imply a recovery in Germany’s economic sentiment;
All Day – ECOFIN Meetings: These meetings will keep the talks about the recent changes in Greece and ECB’s monetary policy;
15:00 – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks: Following the last SNB decision to stop pegging the Swiss Franc to the Euro, Jordan’s upcoming speech could keep moving the markets; he will give a speech at the University of Brussels;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will talk about the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to make any changes to the bank’s asset purchase program;

Wednesday, February 18th
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last report, this index grew by 1.7%; current market estimates are for the index to remain flat at 1.7%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the recent update, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 29.7K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 5.8%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the last MPC meeting, the Bank kept its left rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the major change in MPC’s policy is currently expected to occur in the next second half of 2015;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for January 2015; in the last report, housing starts rose to 1,090K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during December, building permits slightly slipped to 1,030K houses (the latest U.S building permits update);
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to January 2015. In the last report regarding December, this index for finished goods slipped by 0.3% compared with the preceding month’s level; the core PPI rose by 0.3%; current estimates are for the PPI to show a 0.4% drop in the past month;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the shifts in the U.S industrial production during January; as of December, industrial production edged down by 0.1%;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 13th;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: In the first meeting of the year back in January, the FOMC slightly revised the wording of the statement and further emphasized the term “patience” when it comes to the normalization of the current monetary policy. The ongoing recovery in the U.S. economy only raises the odds of the FOMC to raise the cash rate in the middle of the year; the minutes could provide additional input about the FOMC’s deliberations;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in November 2014 the Japanese trade balance deficit narrowed to 710 billion yen (roughly $5.9 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;

Thursday, February 19th
09:00 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: This report provides additional information about the deliberations of the ECB’s policy meeting and may refer to the QE program;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 13th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 304K; the expectations are for this number to reach 305K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding January, the growth rate fell from +24.5 in December to +6.3 in January. If the index continues to decline, it may adversely impact not only U.S. dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 13th;

Friday, February 20th
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly update regarding January 2015, France’s PMI rose to 49.5 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at slower pace. Germany’s PMI edged down to 51 – the industry is growing slower. For this month, the estimates are for the German PMI to rise to 51.8. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may impact the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.4%;
09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on the last month’s report, public net borrowing reached a surplus of $12.5 billion; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding November 2014, manufacturing sales rose by 0.7%; current estimates are for a 0.7% fall in the next report;

Samirofi
02-24-2015, 08:35 PM
Financial Market Preview for February 23-27


The Greek debt crisis seems to have reached, for now, a solution. The Greeks basically gave in to the Germans in regards to the whole austerity. The Greeks will need to submit on Monday proposal for reforms, which will need to be approved by the EU partners. Looking forward, this week we will have other reports and events that could stir up the markets: In the U.S. Yellen will testify in Congress, the second estimate of GDP for Q4 will be released, existing, pending and new home sales, durable goods, consumer confidence and UoM consumer sentiment. In Europe: Monetary developments, final CPI estimate, German business climate, GB GDP for Q4, and German unemployment. So let’s examine the main events and reports for the week of February 23rd to February 27th:


(All times GMT):


Wednesday, February 25th

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for February. Last month’s report regarding January 2015, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is contracting at a slower pace. The current expectations are for this index to slip back to 49.6. If the PMI index falls, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector is shirking;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Janet Yellen will also testify before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to January 2015; in the recent report (opens pdf; for December), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 481,000 – a 9.8% gain (month-over-month); current estimates are for a edge down to an annual rate of 477,000;
16:30 – ECB President Draghi Testifies: ECB President will testify on the ECB Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Brussels;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 20th;

Thursday, February 26th
02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report shows the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2014. As of the recent quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure inched up by 0.2% (Q-o-Q). Current estimates are for a -1.3% drop in the past quarter;
09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly report, the index rose to 9.3. If the index keeps slowly picking up, this could suggest the German economy is improving;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the unemployment fell by 9K;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of January 2015. In the last December report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 3.6%; M1 also grew to 7.8%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached 0.1%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise to 3.8%;
09:30 – Second Estimate of Great Britain GDP Q4 2014: This report will present the second estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2014; in the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.5%; if this report shows a different growth rate, this could move the British pound;
10:15 – Targeted LTRO: The ECB lends money to banks via this auction; this will be the third tranche. In the first one 82.6 billion Euros were auctioned; in the second one, 129.8 billion Euros; in both cases, they were below market expectations. If this auction also falls short, this could suggest the QE program will ramp up.
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 20th; in the previous report the jobless claims slipped to 283K;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for December; in the last report, the core CPI fell by 0.3%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the main changes in the core consumer price index for January 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during December, the CPI declined by 0.4% the core CPI remained flat; this report could impact the USD and change the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding January will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of December 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods slipped to $230.6 billion – a 3.3% drop compared to November; current estimates are at 0.6% gain for this upcoming report;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 20th;

Friday, February 27th
Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the previous CPI report for January 2015, the CPI fell by 1%. This time the expectations are for the CPI to rise by 0.6%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to drop to 89.1;
13:30 – Second U.S GDP 4Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s fourth quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP rose by 2.6%; this was lower than expected. The current estimates are that the GDP grew by 2.1% in the past quarter – a downward revision. If the US gross domestic product shows lower growth rate, this could adversely impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report presents the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S during January; in the previous update for December, pending home sales index fell by 3.7% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the changes of the U.S housing market;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the past update, the sentiment index rose to 98.1;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.8 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. If the updated PMI index falls again, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing further down;

Samirofi
03-09-2015, 03:44 PM
Financial Market Preview for March 9-13

The recent NFP payroll report showed, yet again, another strong gain in jobs with 295K jobs added last month and rate of unemployment fell to 5.5%. This news fueled gains in the U.S. dollar and dragged down gold and silver prices. This week, several key economic reports will be released including: JOLTS report, Euro-group meetings, U.S. retail sales, China’s CPI, Japan’s GDP, U.S. jobless claims, China’s industrial production, U.S. consumer sentiment, Great Britain Manufacturing Production, Australia’s employment report, and French industrial production. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of March 9th to 13th.

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 9th
00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will show the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the last monthly report, the surplus in the current account reached 0.98 trillion yen;
00:50 – Japan’s GDP for Q4: This will be the final estimate for Japan’s GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter. The current expectations are it will show a modest gain of 0.5%. This comes after the economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter;
All Day – Euro-group Meetings: These meetings are held in Brussels and include meetings among Euro-group President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank;

Tuesday, March 10th
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the last report, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 0.8%; if the annual rate remains low, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up; the current expectations are for the CPI to edge up to 1%;
07:45 – French Industrial Production: This report shows the changes in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. Last month’s index rose by 1.5%;
All Day – ECOFIN Meetings: ECOFIN is the Euro zone’s broadest financial decision making body. The meetings among EU Finance Ministers will revolve around the recent economic developments in the Euro zone may include talks about the deflationary pressures, debt problems and high unemployment;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for January; in the previous report regarding December 2014 the index inched up by 0.1%; this time, the estimates are for 0.2% gain in January;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings for February, excluding the farming industry; in the last update regarding January, the number of jobs opening increased to 5.03 million; current market predictions are for the number to slightly rise to 5.04 million;

Wednesday, March 11th
03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production rose to an annual rate of 7.9%; the growth rate is estimated to slip — current outlook is for a growth rate of 7.7%;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the recent monthly update, the total loans grew to 1,470 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 6th;

Thursday, March 12th
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding January 2015 the rate of unemployment inched up to 6.4%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) fell by 12.2K people. This report may impact the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to February; in the last report regarding January, retail sales declined by 0.8% (month-over-month); core retail also fell by 0.9%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.6% gain in core retail sales in February;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 6th; in the recent report, jobless claims grew to 320K; the expectations are for this number to remain stable at 317K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of March 6th;

Friday, March 13th
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for January 2015, unemployment remained unchanged at 6.6%; the employment grew by 35.4K;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to February 2015. In the previous report regarding January, this index for finished goods declined by 0.8% compared with the preceding month’s level; the core PPI inched down by 0.1%; current estimates are for the PPI to show a 0.2% gain in the forthcoming report;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index fell to 93.6;

Samirofi
03-30-2015, 09:56 AM
Financial Market Preview for March 30- April 3

The financial markets shifted focus from Yellen to Yemen, which kept the high volatility mainly over the rising tensions in the Middle East. This week, the main report will to be released is the NF payroll. Other U.S. reports include: manufacturing PMI, PCE, factory orders, trade balance, pending home sales, and consumer confidence. In Europe, the main economic reports include flash CPI, unemployment update, GB manufacturing PMI, and German retail sales. In China, manufacturing PMI will be released. So let’s review the agenda for March 30th to April 3rd:

(All times GMT):

Monday, March 30th

Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for February 2015, the CPI bounced back by 0.9%. In forthcoming report, the expectations are for the CPI to increase again, this time, by 0.4%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to decline to 89.3;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another report the FOMC follows to get a sense of the progress of inflation. In the recent report, the PCE index slipped again by 0.2% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the PCE to rise by 0.3% and 0.1% gain in core PCE in the next report;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during February; in the previous update for January, pending home sales index rose by 1.7% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;


Tuesday, March 31st

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for February 2015, retail sales increased by 2.9%; this month’s estimates are for a drop of 0.9%;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the unemployment declined again by 20K;
09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any shifts in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. According to the last update, the deficit expanded to 27.0 billion pounds;
09:30 – Final GB GDP 4Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the last update of GB’s fourth quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate GB’s GDP grew by 0.7%. Currently, the market expectations are for the GDP to reach a growth rate of 0.5%;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for February, the annual CPI reached -0.3%. The core CPI remained at 0.6%. This is still below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to remain at -0.3% and the core CPI will also remain flat at 0.6%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the rate of unemployment slipped to 11.2%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area is only slightly improving;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the changes in major industrial sectors for January 2015. In the last update regarding December 2014, the real gross domestic product expanded by 0.3%; the current expectations are for the GDP to inch up by 0.2%;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent update for February, the consumer confidence index dropped to 96.4; this suggests consumer spending is growing slower. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will slip to 96.6;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s Manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.9 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. If the updated PMI index falls, this may imply China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing down;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate for its March’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing. Current estimates are at 49.3 — so China’s manufacturing conditions are contracting;


Wednesday, April 1st

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During February, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose again to 54.1 – market expectations are that in March the PMI edged up to 54.5;
15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to March 2015. Back in February, the index declined to 52.9; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slower rate; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to decline to 52.5;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for March 2015 that will be published on Friday;
15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 27th
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the recent update, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services expanded to 0.98 billion dollars; the report will also show the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);


Thursday, April 2nd

13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 27th; in the previous report, the jobless claims fell to 282K;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the trade balance expanded to $2.5 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for February will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding January the goods and services deficit contracted to $41.8 billion; current projections are for the deficit to contract to $41.5 billion;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in March; in the latest report regarding February factory orders fell again by 0.2%; current projections are for no change in the previous month;
15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of March 27th;


Friday, April 3rd

13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the recent employment report referring to February 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 295K – well above market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate inched down to 5.5%. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain (current projections are at 251K), this could further strengthen the USD and drag down gold and silver;

Samirofi
04-14-2015, 08:41 PM
Financial Market Preview for April 13 -17


The U.S. dollar resumed its upward trend and picked up against the Euro and Japanese yen. The aftermath of the NFP report and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting provided enough volatility for the markets. Also, the tensions in the Middle East kept the pressure on the oil market. This week, the ECB will announce of any changes it has to its policy. BOC will also announce its rate decision. Other reports and events this week include: U.S. CPI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting minutes, G20 summit, China’s trade balance, GB CPI, Australia’s employment report, U.S. housing starts, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, China’s industrial production, EU CPI, Philly Fed index, and Canada’s retail sales . So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of April 13th to 17th.


(All times GMT):


Wednesday, April 12th

12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: The ECB will announce of any changes to its monetary policy. This will be a closely watched event and will be followed by a press conference. Draghi’s words are likely to move markets, as they did in previous times. The current expectations are for no major changes to the ECB’s policy, but perhaps the President will elaborate on the progress of ECB’s QE program and future plans for change in policy;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding February 2015, manufacturing sales changed course and dropped by 1.7%; current expectations are for a 0.2% fall;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce of any shifts to its overnight rate – the rate is currently at 0.75%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any change to its cash rate at this point;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will also publish its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any changes in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding February 2015 the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.3%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 15.6K people. This report may impact the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 10th;


Thursday, April 13th

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for March 2015; in the last report, housing starts dropped to 900K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during February, building permits slightly rose to 1,090K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest drop to 1,080K;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 10th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 281K; the expectations are for this number to slightly rise to 284K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding March, the growth rate slipped from +5.2 in February to +5 in March. If the index were to bounce back, it may suggest the U.S. economy is slowly progressing (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 10th;


Friday, April 14th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last update, this index grew by 1.8%; current market estimates are for the index to remain at this level;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous report, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 31K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.7%;
10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of -0.3% as of March. This number means the EU is in deflation. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy; current estimates the rate will reach -0.1%;
All Day – G20 Summit: The summit will span over two days in which the G20 finance of ministers will convene and discuss the recent economic developments;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the developments in the core consumer price index for March 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during January, the CPI edged up by 0.2% the core CPI also rose by 0.2%; this report could impact the USD and influence the FOMC members to keep rates low;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for February; in the last report, the core CPI rose by 0.6%;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding February 2015, manufacturing sales fell by 1.8%; current estimates are for a 0.5% gain in the upcoming report;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index fell to 91.2;

Samirofi
04-20-2015, 05:08 PM
Financial Market Preview for April 20-24


The U.S. dollar took another tumble against leading currencies such as Euro, Japanese yen and Aussie dollar. On this week’s agenda in the U.S: Durable goods, existing home sales, and jobless claims. In Europe: Euro group meetings, BOE rate decision, German economic sentiment, EU manufacturing PMI, and GB retail sales. In Asia: China’s manufacturing PMI (HSBC) and Japan’s trade balance will be released this week. So let’s review the main events and reports for the week of April 20th to April 24th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 20th

15:05 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will participate in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Americas Monetary Summit, in New York;
15:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the American Australian Association luncheon hosted by Goldman Sachs, in New York;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate at 2.25%; the minutes will provide additional information behind the no cut decision;


Tuesday, April 21st

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for March. Back in February, the ZEW indicator for Germany increased again to 54.8 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment keeps rising, this may imply a recovery in Germany’s economic sentiment;
21:00 – Canada’s Annual Budget: This will show the Federal government’s budget for this year;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in January 2015 the Japanese trade balance deficit expanded to 640 billion yen (roughly $5.42 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;


Wednesday, April 22nd

00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the last quarterly report, the CPI grew by 0.2%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show a 0.1% quarterly gain;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the latest MPC meeting, the Bank maintained its rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the major change in MPC’s policy is currently expected to occur in the coming months after next month’s elections in the UK;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for March 2015; in the previous report regarding February, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million houses; the current expectations are for the annul rate to pick up to 5.04 million houses;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 17th;


Thursday, April 23rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for April. Last month’s report regarding March 2015, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is contracting. The current expectations are for this index to inch up to 49.4. If the PMI index doesn’t pass the 50 mark, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector isn’t expanding;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the recent monthly update regarding March 2015, France’s PMI rose to 48.2 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are still contracting but at a slower pace. Germany’s PMI rose to 52.4 – the industry is growing faster. This time, the estimates are for the German PMI to further rise to 53.1. This news, in turn, may move the Euro;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.7%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 17th; in the last report the jobless claims slightly grew to 294K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 17th;


Friday, April 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index consists of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of April. In the March update, the business climate index rallied to 107.9 – the current expectations are that the index will rise to 108.5;
All Day – Euro-group Meetings: These meetings are held in Brussels and include meetings among Euro-group President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refers to March and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of February 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods slipped by 0.4%, month over month; current estimates are for a 0.2% gain;
15:30 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will participate in a panel discussion at the Export-Import Bank of the United States, in Washington DC;

Samirofi
04-28-2015, 08:21 PM
Financial Market Preview for April 27-May 1


The U.S. dollar resumed its descent while precious metals kept coming down. But this could all change if the FOMC were to surprise the market in its forthcoming statement. On this week’s agenda in the U.S: FOMC meeting, GDP for Q1 – first estimate, manufacturing PMI, pending home sales, core PCE, and UoM consumer sentiment. In Europe: GB manufacturing PMI, EU flash CPI, EU Monetary developments report, German retail sales and GB GDP for Q1. China’s manufacturing PMI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting and BOJ’s economic outlook will also be released this week. So let’s review the main events and reports for the week of April 27th to May 1st:


(All times GMT):

Monday, April 27th

23:40 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Australian Financial Review Banking & Wealth Summit, in Sydney;
00:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales fell by 1.8%; the current expectations are for another drop in retail sales of 7.4% for the upcoming report;


Tuesday, April 28th

09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q1 2015: This report will show the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the first quarter of 2015; current projections are for a 0.5% gain;
13:45 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent update for March, the consumer confidence index bounced back to 101.3; this suggests consumer spending is growing faster. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will reach 102.6;


Wednesday, April 29th

Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for March 2015, the CPI rose again by 0.5%. In next report, the expectations are for the CPI to decline, this time, by 0.1%;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of March 2015. In the previous February report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 4%; M1 also increased to 9.1%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached 0.6%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise again to 4.3%;
13:30 – First U.S GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q4 2014 the GDP rose by 2.2%. The current estimates are that the GDP grew by 1% in the recent quarter – slower growth than in the fourth quarter. If the US gross domestic product shows a lower growth rate, this could adversely impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during March; in the previous update for February, pending home sales index rose by 3.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 24th;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting Statement: This will be the third FOMC meeting for the year and will take place between April 28th and 29th. This time, the FOMC won’t release an update on its economic outlook and with no press conference. So the statement is likely to create fewer waves than it did in the previous meeting. Considering the recent “less than impressive NF payroll report and (expected) low GDP growth rate for Q1 2015, the FOMC could take a more dovish tone and ease down on the “raising rates soon” talk. In any case, another dovish statement (a reminder last one was considered dovish albeit the minutes came across a bit more hawkish) could trigger gains for gold and silver.;


Thursday, April 30th

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;
06:00 – BOJ’s Outlook Report: This is a biannual report that is published on April and October. It sums up Bank of Japan’s forecast for the Japanese economy; based on this outlook, it could provide some indication about the future steps of BOJ;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for March 2015, retail sales decreased by 0.5%; this month’s estimates are for a gain of 0.5%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to rise to 91.7;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for March, the annual CPI was -0.1%. The core CPI remained flat at 0.6%. This is still below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are for the inflation to reach 0% and the core CPI to remain unchanged at 0.6%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report showed that the rate of unemployment edged up to 11.3%. This figure suggests the labor market in the Euro Area hasn’t improved;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for February 2015. In the last update regarding January 2015, the real gross domestic product contracted by 0.1%; the current expectations are for the GDP to inch down by 0.2%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 24th; in the previous report the jobless claims reached 294K;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another indicator the FOMC follows to get a sense of the progress of inflation. In the recent update, the PCE index rise by 0.1% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the PCE to rise by 0.6% and 0.2% gain in core PCE in the next report;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 24th;
15:30 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will hold testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, before the Senate Finance Committee, in Ottawa;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are very slowly growing. If the updated PMI index falls, this may suggest China’s manufacturing conditions are slowing down;


Friday, May 1st

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During March, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rallied again to 54.4– market expectations are that in April the PMI edged up to 54.6;
15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to April 2015. Back in March, the index declined to 51.5; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to slightly rise to 52.1;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the past update, the sentiment index rose to 96.1;

Samirofi
05-04-2015, 10:15 AM
Financial Market Outlook for May 4-8


The U.S. dollar came further down in the past week following the release of the recent FOMC statement. This week, the UK elections will take center stage in Europe and in the U.S. the main report is the NF payroll. After last month’s disappointing report, a rise of well over 200K in jobs could bring back up the USD. Other U.S. reports/events include: Yellen’s speech, trade balance, factory orders, and non-manufacturing PMI. In Europe, the main economic reports include: EU retail sales, German manufacturing PMI, and Spanish unemployment. In China, manufacturing PMI final estimate will come out. Finally, In Australia, we have RBA’s rate decision, trade balance, RBA’s quarterly policy statement, and employment report. So let’s examine the agenda for May 4th to May 8th:

(All times GMT):

Monday, May 4th

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s last estimate): This is HSBC’s final estimate for its April’s PMI index estimate. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.6 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. Current estimates are at 49.4 — so China’s manufacturing conditions are still contracting;
08:55 – German final Manufacturing PMI: In March, Germany’s manufacturing index rose again to 52.8 – market expectations are that in April the PMI declined to 51.9;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the shifts in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in April; in the latest report regarding March factory orders inched up by 0.2%; current projections are for a reported gain of 2.1% in April;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the recent report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services expanded again to 1.26 billion dollars; the report will also show the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);


Tuesday, May 5th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. Current estimates are for a modest 0.25% rate cut that will bring the cash rate to 2%;
08:00 – Spanish Unemployment: Last month, the number of people unemployed fell by 60.2K; this time the estimates put this figure at 64.8K drop;
10:00 – EU Economic Forecasts: EU states will release an economic forecast for the EU for the next two years;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance contracted to $1 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for March will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the last American trade balance update regarding February the goods and services deficit contracted to $35.4 billion; current projections are for the deficit to expand to $39.2 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to April 2015. In the last update for March, this index edged down to 56.5 — the non-manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower pace compared to the previous month; current estimates are for the PMI to slip again to 56.2;


Wednesday, May 6th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.7%;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to March 2015. In the last update, the volume of retail trade declined by 0.2%;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for April 2015 that will be released on Friday;
14:15 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following last week’s FOMC meeting, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a panel discussion about finance, governance, and society at the Institute for Economic Thinking conference on Finance and Society, in Washington DC;
15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 1st;


Thursday, May 7th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding March 2015 the rate of unemployment inched down to 6.1%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) rose by 37.7K people. This report may affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
06:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders fell by 0.9% during March;
All Day – UK Elections: Voters will elect 650 members of UK’s Lower House of Parliament; the current polls show that neither of the big parties have enough votes to form a government;
13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1st; in the latest report, the jobless claims declined to 262K;
15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of May 1st;


Friday, May 8th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted in the past month, but is expected to expand in the upcoming monthly update; this report provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the previous employment update for March 2015, unemployment remained flat at 6.8%; the employment grew by 28.7K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report referring to March 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by only 126K – well below market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5%. If the upcoming report shows a strong gain (current projections are at 231K), this could strengthen the USD and bring down precious metals;

Samirofi
05-11-2015, 12:12 PM
Financial Market Preview for May 11 -15


The recent NFP report was inline with market expectations but did present downward revisions for previous months. The aftermath of this report will continue to resonate in the markets in the coming days. Besides this labor market update, here are some of the main reports and events that will unfold this week: U.S. PPI, BOJ’s Euro groups meetings, U.S. JOLTS, China’s new loans, BOE rate decision, U.S. retail sales, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, U.S. consumer sentiment, China’s industrial production, EU GDP for Q1, and Canada’s manufacturing sales . So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of May 11th to 15th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, May 11th
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will release its basic rate for May 2015; the MPC will also announce of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; BOE’s interest rate are still set at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion, as of the previous month; considering the UK elections just ended, it’s less likely for the Bank to make any changes so soon after the elections;
All Day – Euro-group Meetings: These meetings are held in Brussels and include meetings among Euro-group President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states, the Commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, and the President of the European Central Bank;

Tuesday, May 12th
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for March; in the last report regarding February 2015 the index rose by 0.4%; this time, the estimates are for 0.3% bump in March;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the recent monthly report, the total loans rose to 1,180 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress; the current expectation are for another modest increase in the balance;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for April, excluding the farming industry; in the last update regarding March, the number of jobs opening rose to 5.13 million; current market predictions are for the number to increase again to 5.21 million;
Tentative – Australian Annual Budget Release: this report will outline the government budget of Australia for 2015; if there will be a rise in the budget deficit it could have an adverse effect on the Aussie dollar;
All Day – ECOFIN Meetings: ECOFIN is the Euro zone’s broadest financial decision making body. The meetings among EU Finance Ministers will revolve around the latest economic developments in the Euro zone may include talks about the deflationary pressures, debt problems and high unemployment;

Wednesday, May 13th
00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the last monthly report, the surplus in the current account reached 0.60 trillion yen;
03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly update, China industrial production expanded at an annual rate of 5.6% — lower than in the previous month; the growth rate is estimated to bounce back — current estimate is for a growth rate of 6.1%;
07:00 –EU, German and French First Quarter GDP 2015: In the fourth quarter of 2014, Germany’s economy grew by 0.7%. The progress of the German economy is likely to impact the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate remains low, this may drag down the Euro; currently, the market expects a 0.5% gain in the first quarter;
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the last report, this index grew by 1.7%; current market estimates are for the index to remain at the same rate;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous report, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 21K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 5.6%;
10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor is expected to hold a press conference about the inflation letter, in London;
10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will publish its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation forecast for 2015and 2016;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to April; in the last report regarding March, retail sales rose by 0.9% (month-over-month); core retail increased by 0.4%; this report also shows the developments in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.4% gain in core retail sales in April;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 8th;

Thursday, May 14th
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 8th; in the latest report, jobless claims slipped to 265K; the expectations are for this number to slightly rise to 271K;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to April 2015. In the recent report regarding March, this index for finished goods inched up by 0.2% compared with the previous month’s level; the core PPI also rose by 0.2%; current estimates are for the PPI to presents a modest gain of 0.1% in the upcoming report;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of May 8th;

Friday, May 15th
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding March 2015, manufacturing sales fell again by 1.7%; current expectations are for a 0.3% gain;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the changes in the U.S industrial production during March; as of February, industrial production slipped by 0.6%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 95.9;

Samirofi
05-18-2015, 03:06 PM
Financial Market Preview for May 18 -22

The U.S. dollar took another beating this week as it depreciated against the Euro and yen, while the stock market didn’t do much and commodities rallied – this mainly includes gold and silver. This week, the FOMC will release the minutes of its last meeting. Other main reports include: U.S. CPI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting minutes, RBA’s minutes of last meeting, Japan’s GDP for Q1, China’s manufacturing PMI, GB CPI, U.S. housing starts, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, EU CPI, Philly Fed index, and Canada’s retail sales . So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of May 18th to 22nd.

(All times GMT):

Monday, May 18th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate to 2%; the minutes will provide additional information behind the


Tuesday, May 19th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the latest monthly update, the CPI remained flat in February. The current projections are for another 0% inflation in April;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for April. Back in March, the ZEW indicator for Germany slipped to 53.3 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment keeps falling, this may imply a slowdown in the recovery of Germany’s economy;
10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI reached an annual rate of -0.1% for April. This number means the EU is in deflation. The developments in EU’s inflation could influence ECB members in changing the bank’s monetary policy; current estimates the rate will reach 0%;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S. housing starts monthly update for April 2015; in the last report, housing starts rose to 930K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during March, building permits slightly declined to 1,040K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest gain to 1,060K;
15:45 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will hold a press conference at the Chamber of Commerce, in Charlottetown;
23:50 – Japanese GDP for Q1 – Preliminary estimate: In the fourth quarter of the year, the Japanese economy expanded by 0.6% while in the third quarter it also fell by 0.4%; this time, the report will present the first estimate for the first quarter of the year. The current estimates are that economy expanded by 0.4%, year over year;


Wednesday, May 20th

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the latest MPC meeting, the Bank maintained its rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; now that the elections are over, the MPC will start to consider the timing of the future rate hike. For now, however, it’s unlikely to see any changes to policy;
13:30 – Canada Wholesale Sales: In the recent report regarding March 2015, wholesale sales declined by 0.4%; current expectations are for a 0.3% bump up;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 15th;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: This will be the main event of the week. In the previous meeting in April, the FOMC didn’t provide any guidance about the next rate hike and left the door open of such a decision in any of the coming meetings – as usual keeping it all data dependent. The minutes could reveal some more of the deliberations among FOMC members and what’s up ahead for the next move of the FOMC;


Thursday, May 21st

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for May. Last month’s report regarding April 2015, the Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 49.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is still contracting. The current expectations are for this index to inch up to 49.5. If the PMI index doesn’t pass the 50 mark, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector isn’t growing;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly update regarding April 2015, France’s PMI rose to 48.4 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are still contracting but at a slower rate. Germany’s PMI slipped to 51.9 – the industry is growing slower. This time, the estimates are for the German PMI to remain unchanged at 51.9. This news, in turn, may move the Euro;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain declined by 0.5%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 15th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 264K; the expectations are for this number to slightly rise to 267K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimated the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding April, the growth rate rose from +5 in March to +7.5 in April. If the index were to keep rising, it may suggest the U.S. economy is progressing (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for April 2015; in the previous report regarding March, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to rise again to 5.23 million houses;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of May 15th;


Friday, May 22nd

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index consists of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of May. In the April update, the business climate index rose to 108.6 – the current expectations are that the index will decline to 108.3;
09:00 –ECB President Draghi Speaks: Draghi is expected to speak at the ECB Forum on Central Banking titled “Inflation and Unesmployment in Europe,” in Portugal;
13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the last report, the CPI grew by 0.6%, M-o-M. The current expectations are for the next report to show a 0.1% monthly gain;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the changes in the core consumer price index for April 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during March, the CPI inched up by 0.2% the core CPI also rose by 0.2%; this report could impact the USD and influence the FOMC members to maintain low rates;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding March 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 2%; current estimates are for a 0.7% gain in the upcoming report;
15:30 –ECB President Draghi Speaks: President Draghi will also participate in a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking titled “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe,” in Portugal;;

Samirofi
05-25-2015, 04:46 PM
Financial Market Preview for May 25-29

This week will be short on account of Memorial Day, but this doesn’t mean we could see a rise in volatility following the end of the long weekend in the U.S. financial markets. On this week’s agenda: U.S. durable goods, pending and new home sales, EU monetary development, U.S. and GB second estimate of GDP for Q1, BOC’s rate decision, German consumer climate, BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes, Canada’s GDP, and Japan’s trade balance. So let’s break down the main events and reports for the week of May 25th to May 29th:

(All times GMT):


Monday, May 25th

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In February 2015 the Japanese trade balance was balanced (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; the trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;


Tuesday, May 26th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refers to April and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of March 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined by 0.2%, month over month; current estimates are for a 0.5% gain;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for April, the consumer confidence index declined to 95.2. The current estimates are for a modest gain so the index will reach 95.3;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to March 2015; in the latest report (opens pdf; for February), the sales of new homes slipped at an annual rate of 481,000; current estimates are for a gain to an annual rate of 501,000;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting may add some insight behind its recent meeting;


Wednesday, May 27th

09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly update, the index rose to 10.1. If the index keeps slowly picking up, this could suggest the German economy is improving;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada didn’t change last time its overnight rate – the rate is currently at 0.75%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy;


Thursday, May 28th

02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly report presents the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the first quarter of 2015. As of the recent quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure declined by 2.2% (Q-o-Q). Current estimates are for a -2.3% drop in the past quarter;
09:30 – Second Estimate of Great Britain GDP Q1 2015: This report will present the second estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the first quarter of 2015; in the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.3%; if this report shows a different growth rate, this could move the British pound; currently, the market estimates the GDP report will show a growth rate of 0.4%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 22nd; in the last report the jobless claims slightly rose to 274K;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during April; in the previous update for March, pending home sales index rose by 1.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on May 22nd;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of May 22nd;


Friday, May 29th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for April 2015, retail sales decreased by 2.3%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to rise to 90.3;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of April 2015. In the previous March report, the annual growth rate for M3 increased again to 4.6%; M1 also increased to 10%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached 0.8%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise again to 4.6%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the changes in major industrial sectors for March 2015. In the last update regarding February 2015, the real gross domestic product remained flat; the current expectations are for the GDP to edge up by 0.2%;
13:30 – Second U.S GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP rose by 0.2%; this was lower than expected. The current estimates are that the GDP contracted by 0.9% in the past quarter – a downward revision. If the US gross domestic product shows a contraction, this could adversely impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the previous report, the sentiment index increased to 95.9;

Samirofi
06-08-2015, 07:25 PM
Financial Market Preview for June 8-12


The latest NFP report presented a better than expected results with a gain of 280K jobs back in May. This news is likely to keep echoing in the first couple of trading days this week but the release of the JOLTS could change the market sentiment if it doesn’t reach market estimates. Here are a list of the main reports and events on this week’s agenda: U.S. retail sales, Japan’s current account, U.S. PPI, China’s new loans, U.S. JOLTS, Great Britain manufacturing production, U.S. consumer sentiment, China’s industrial production, Japan’s GDP for Q1, and German industrial production. So let’s breakdown the economic calendar for the week of June 8th to 12th.

All times GMT):

Monday, June 8th

00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will show the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the previous monthly report, the surplus in the current account reached 2.07 trillion yen;
00:50 – Japan’s GDP for Q1: This will be the final estimate for Japan’s GDP growth rate in the first quarter. The current expectations are it will show a gain of 0.6%. This comes after the economy grew by 0.4% in the fourth quarter;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded in the past month and is expected to further expand in the next monthly report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
08:00 – German Industrial Production: In the recent report, industrial production declined by 0.5% during April; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 0.6% in May;


Tuesday, June 9th

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI increased to an annual rate of 1.54%; if the annual rate falls again, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t gaining; the current expectations are for the CPI to inch down to 1.3%;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for April, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update regarding March, the number of jobs opening declined to 4.99 million; current market predictions are for the number to increase to 5.03 million;
Wednesday, June 10th
03:50 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Economic Society of Australia, in Melbourne;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for April; in the last report regarding March 2015 the index rose again by 0.4%; this time, the estimates are for 0.1% gain in April;
09:00 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Carney is expected to speak at the Annual Mansion House Dinner, in London;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 5th;


Thursday, June 11th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last update regarding April 2015 the rate of unemployment inched up to 6.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slipped by 2.9K people. This report may move the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the latest monthly update, China industrial production grew to an annual rate of 5.9% — slightly below market projections; the growth rate is estimated to further rise — current estimate is for a growth rate of 6%;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the previous report, the total loans fell to 708 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress; the current expectation are for another an increase in the balance;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to May; in the recent report regarding April, retail sales remained flat (month-over-month); core retail inched up by 0.1%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight vis-à-vis the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.7% gain in core retail sales in May;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 6th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 276K; the expectations are for this number to remain virtually unchanged at 277K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 5th;
16:15 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor will hold a press conference about Financial System Review, in Ottawa;


Friday, June 12th

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to May 2015. In the recent report regarding April, this index for finished goods slipped by 0.4% compared with the previous month’s level; the core PPI also declined by 0.2%; current estimates are for the PPI to present a gain of 0.4% in the next report;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous report, the sentiment index dropped to 88.6;

Samirofi
06-15-2015, 05:55 PM
Financial Market Preview for June 15-19


This week all eyes will be set towards the upcoming FOMC meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday and include an updated economic outlook and press conference. This time, the meeting is likely to stir up the financial markets and crowd out the potential impact of other reports and events that will take place this week. In any case, other reports to consider include: U.S. CPI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting minutes, minutes of last RBA’s meeting, ECB President Draghi speaks, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB CPI, U.S. housing starts, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, EU CPI, Philly Fed index, and Canada’s retail sales. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of June 15th to 19th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, June 15th

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding April 2015, manufacturing sales changed course and rose by 2.9%; current expectations are for a 1.3% drop;
14:00 –ECB President Draghi Speaks: President Draghi will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during April; as of March, industrial production slipped again by 0.3%;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 2% in the recent meeting; the minutes will provide additional information behind the recent rate decision;


Tuesday, June 16th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the recent monthly update, the CPI inched down by 0.1% in April. The current projections are for a modest gain of 0.1% inflation in May;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for May. Back in April, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped again to 41.9 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment keeps declining, this may imply a slowdown in the recovery of Germany’s economy;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for May 2015; in the latest report, housing starts increased again to 1,140K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous report, during April, building permits slightly rose to 1,140K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a modest drop to 1,110K;


Wednesday, June 17th

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report shows the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the recent report, this index grew by 1.9%; current market estimates are for the index to rise and reach 2.5%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 12.6K; the rate of unemployment inched down to 5.5%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the previous MPC meeting, the Bank left its rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the BOE isn’t expected to change its policy anytime soon;
10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI reached an annual rate of 0.3% for May. This number means the EU is in slightly up. If the inflation keeps picking up, this could indicate that the ECB’s policy is starting to affect the EU inflation;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 12th;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This will be the fourth FOMC meeting for the year and will take place between June 16th and 17th. This time, the meeting will also include an update to the FOMC’s economic outlook and the dot plot and a press conference of FOMC Chair Yellen. Even though the market doesn’t expect to see any big announcements vis-à-vis a rate hike, it’s still an important meeting that is likely to crowd out all other reports and events this week. The current expectations are that the FOMC will slightly revise down its GDP outlook for the year. The big question will remain whether the FOMC were to drop any hints about the timing of the rate hike. Any positive feedback about the progress of the U.S. economy could be interpreted as a sign for moving a bit closer towards raising rates in one of the coming meetings; in such a scenario, the USD is likely to further rise and precious metals to take another fall;


Thursday, June 18th

08:30 – SNB’s Libor rate decision: The Swiss National Bank will announce of any changes to its monetary policy; after the big change in policy to stop pegging the Franc to the Euro and cutting down rates, this time the SNB isn’t expected to come up with big announcements;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 1.2%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the changes in the core consumer price index for May 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in April, the CPI edged up by 0.1%; the core CPI increased by 0.3%; this report could impact the USD and influence the FOMC members especially considering the meeting will take place a day earlier;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 13th; in the latest report, jobless claims slightly rose to 279K; the expectations are for this number to slightly fall to 278K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding May, the growth rate slipped from +7.5 in April to +6.7 in May. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to 8.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 12th;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;


Friday, June 19th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI grew by 0.1%, M-o-M. The current expectations are for the next report to show a 0.3% monthly gain;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding April 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 0.5%; current estimates are for a 0.3% gain in the next report;

Samirofi
06-23-2015, 10:31 AM
Financial Market Preview for June 22-26


The recent FOMC meeting and the ongoing saga around the Greek debt crisis, have kept pushing down the U.S. dollar against leading currencies and brought slightly up precious metals prices. These issues will continue to lead to news cycle and move markets as the uncertainty remains high. On this week’s agenda: U.S. GDP for Q1 — final estimate, Euro Summit about Greece’s debt, U.S. durable goods, China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S. existing and new home sales, EU monetary development, German business climate, BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes, and U.S. core PCE. So let’s review the main events and reports for the week of June 22nd to June 26th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, June 22nd

All Day – Euro Summit & EuroGroup Meetings: With the clock is clicking on Greece that will need to make a 1.5 billion euros payment to the IMF by June 30th or it will have to default on this debt, the EuroGroup President, Finance Ministers from euro area member states will try to find a way to bridge the gap between the EU and Greece – the debate is still around cutting the country’s deficit via lowering pensions payments, raising sales taxes and aiming at spending targets;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for May 2015; in the previous April report, the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to rise to 5.27 million houses;


Tuesday, June 23rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for June. Last month’s report regarding May, the Manufacturing PMI remained nearly unchanged at 49.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is still contracting. The current expectations are for this index to edge up to 49.4. If the PMI index doesn’t pass the 50 mark, it will suggest China’s manufacturing sector isn’t growing;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last May update, France’s PMI increased again to 49.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are still contracting but at a slower pace. Germany’s PMI slipped to 51.4 – the industry is expanding slower. This time, the estimates are for the German PMI to inch up to 51.5;
13:00 – FOMC Member Powell Speaks: Following the latest FOMC meeting, all eyes are set at the FOMC to try and figure out the next rate hike; FOMC member Powell plans to speak about the Fed’s policy;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report pertain to May and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of April 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose by 0.5%, month over month; current estimates are for a 0.6% gain;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to May 2015; in the previous report (opens pdf; for February), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 517,000; current estimates are for a modest gain to an annual rate of 524,000;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting may add some insight behind its last policy meeting;


Wednesday, June 24th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index consists of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of June. In the May update, the business climate index inched down to 108.5 – the current expectations are that the index slipped to 108.2;
13:30 – Third U.S GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the third and final estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the GDP contracted by 0.7%. The current estimates are that the GDP only contracted by 0.2% in the past quarter – an upward revision. A better estimate could provide another boost the U.S. dollar and raise the odds of a rate hike in the coming months by the FOMC;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 19th;


Thursday, June 25th

09:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate: In the last monthly report, the index rose to 10.2. If the index keeps slowly picking up, this could suggest the German economy is rebounding;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 19th; in the recent report the jobless claims slightly fell to 267K;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to review the U.S. inflation. In the last report, the PCE index remained flat and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to rise again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.7%;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of June 19th;


Friday, June 26th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of May 2015. In the last April report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 5.3%; M1 also increased to 10.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector remained at 0.8%. This month’s estimates are that M3 will rise again to 5.4%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index dropped to 90.7;

Samirofi
06-30-2015, 06:57 PM
Financial Market Preview for June 29- July 3


It was supposed to be short week that will focus on the latest non-farm payroll report, alas the Greeks will take center stage again as they will have a referendum on the proposed bailout plan set on July 5th. Athens plead for an extension on the upcoming 1.6 billion euros payment it has to deliver to the IMF at the end of this month, but this request fell on deaf ears and was rejected. Moreover, the EU members aren’t too happy with Tsipras and his decision to take the bailout plan to the people. So now the possibility of a Grexit is higher than it was just a week back because now it’s very likely that Greece will default on its IMF upcoming payment. ECB is expected to react to this possibility as it plans to stop the emergency lending to Greek banks. But some analysts suspect the ECB will only cap the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) and won’t end it. And in any case Greek banks are still able to get funding from the Greek central bank, albeit its resources may not be able to accommodate a bank run. In any case, this short week could turn out to be more volatile than previously expected. Besides Greece and the NFP report, other reports to consider include: Pending home sales, EU CPI flash estimate, Australia’s trade balance reports, U.S. factory orders, U.S. manufacturing PMI, China manufacturing PMI final estimate, EU retail sales, and Canada’s GDP. So let’s review the agenda for June 29th to July 3rd:


(All times GMT):

Monday, June 29th
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during May; in the previous update for April, pending home sales index rose by 3.4% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S. housing market;
09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. According to the last report, the deficit shrank to 25.3 billion pounds;
09:30 – Final GB GDP 1Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the last update of GB’s first quarter of 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate GB’s GDP grew by 0.6%. Currently, the market expectations are for the GDP to reach a growth rate of 0.4%;


Tuesday, June 30th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for May 2015, retail sales increased by 1.7%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This is a composite index based on 219 economic indicators; the current estimates are for this index to rise to 93.7;
09:40 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, in London;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for May, the annual CPI was 0.3%. The core CPI rose to 0.9%. This is still below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. The current estimates are that the inflation reached 0.2% last month, and the core CPI will inch down to 0.8%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment dropped to 11.1%; this time the estimates put this figure again at 11.1%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for April 2015. In the last update regarding March 2015, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.2%; the current expectations are for the GDP to edge up by 0.1%;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for May, the consumer confidence index rose to 95.4. The current estimates are for a gain as the index will reach 97.1;


Wednesday, July 1st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slightly faster pace. Current estimates are at 50.3 — China’s manufacturing conditions are growing a bit faster;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC) : HSBC will release its final estimate for last month’s manufacturing PMI – last time it reached 49.2 and now is expected to slightly rise to 49.6. In either case the manufacturing sectors aren’t growing according to this report. Of the two reports, this one is considered independent and could be more accurate than the former;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in May, Great Britain’s manufacturing index rose to 52 – market expectations are that in June the PMI edged up to 52.6;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for June 2015 that will be published on Friday;
15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to June 2015. Back in May, the index rose to 52.8; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster pace than before; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to slightly increase again to 53.2;
15:30 – US Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 26th;


Thursday, July 2nd

01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: As of the last report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services rose again to 3.89 billion dollars; the monthly update will also show the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
12:30 –ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report regarding May 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 280K – higher than market expectations; the U.S unemployment rate edged up to 5.5%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 231K), this could boost further the USD and drag down precious metals prices;
13:30 – US Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 26th; in the previous report, the jobless claims slightly rose to 271K;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report presents the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in June; in the latest report regarding May factory orders slipped by 0.4%; current projections are for a reported another fall of 0.5% in June;
15:30 – EIA US Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of June 26th;
Friday, July 3rd
01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the previous report, the volume of retail trade remained unchanged;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to May 2015. In the last update, the volume of retail trade increased by 0.7%;

Samirofi
07-13-2015, 08:19 PM
Financial Market Preview for July 13-17


The Greek drama continues to dominate the news cycle and isn’t likely to get off the headlines until a bailout deal is struck or a final Greek exit decision is made. So even though the Greek debt crisis will likely to crowd out other reports and financial events, this week’s agenda is still packed with many news items that could move the markets including: Yellen testifies, China’s GDP for Q2, U.S. CPI, ECB’s rate decision, U.S. retail sales, U.S. PPI, BOJ’s monetary policy meeting, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. housing starts, Great Britain Claimant Count Change, EU CPI, and Canada’s CPI. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of July 13th to 17th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, July 13th

All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene on Sunday and Monday to try and come up with ways to keep Greece in the EU; the depleting money in the Greek banks is putting a timer on these talks before Greece runs out of Euros and without a money infusion the country will have to start printing its own money or issue IOUs;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded again in last month but is expected to slightly contract in the next monthly report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last update, the total loans rose to 901 billion RMB; currently, market estimate the amount of new loans rose to 1,050 billion RMB;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during June 2015; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month;


Tuesday, July 14th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the latest monthly update, the CPI inched up by 0.1% in May. The current projections are for a modest gain of 0.1% inflation in June;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for June. Back in May, the ZEW indicator for Germany declined again to 31.5 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment keeps falling, this may imply a slowdown in the growth of its economy;
13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to June; in the recent report regarding May, retail sales rose by 1.2% (month-over-month); core retail also grew by 1%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight vis-à-vis the progress in demand for gasoline; current outlook is for a 0.7% gain in core retail sales in June;


Wednesday, July 15th

03:00 –China Second Quarter GDP 2015: In the first quarter, China’s economy grew by 7% in annual terms – slightly lower than the previous quarter. The current expectations are for the growth rate to modestly decline to an annual rate of 6.9% for the second quarter. If the growth rate declines even further, this may suggest the fears of China’s economic slowdown have some validity;
05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the previous monthly update, China industrial production grew to an annual rate of 6.1% — slightly above market projections; the growth rate is estimated to slightly fall — current estimate is for a growth rate of 6%;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the latest report, this index grew by 2.7%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 3.3%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the recent monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB declined again by 6.5K; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 5.5% and is expected to remain at this rate in this upcoming report;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding May 2015, manufacturing sales changed course and fell by 2.1%; current expectations are for a 0.4% gain;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to June 2015. In the recent report referring to May, this index for finished goods rose by 0.5% compared with the preceding month’s level; the core PPI inched up by 0.1%; current estimates are for the PPI to present a gain of 0.2% in the forthcoming report;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will shows the changes in the U.S industrial production during June; as of May, industrial production slipped again by 0.2%;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will release its quarterly monetary policy update; if the Bank presents any changes in this press conference; it could impact the Canadian dollar;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The last time Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate was in January, and it’s currently stands at 0.75%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Janet Yellen will testify before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, in Washington DC; she will present the Fed’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 10th;


Thursday, July 16th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI reached an annual rate of 0.2% for June. This number means the EU is in slightly down. If the inflation keeps falling, this could indicate that the ECB’s policy has had little impact on the EU inflation;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: The press conference of ECB President Draghi is highly anticipated in light of the Greek debt crisis and the role of ECB in this issue. The ECB is again not likely to change its policy but could offer some insight about the progress of ECB’s QE program;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Janet Yellen will also testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 9th; in the recent report, jobless claims slightly rose to 297K; the expectations are for this number to slightly fall to 282K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding June, the growth rate rose from +6.7 in May to +15.2 in June. This time, the index is expected to slightly fall to 12.1 (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 10th;


Friday, July 17th

13:30 – Canada’s core CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI rose by 0.4%, M-o-M. The current expectations are for the next report to show a 0.1% monthly contraction;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S. housing starts monthly update for June 2015; in the previous report, housing starts decreased to 1,040K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous report, during May, building permits slightly rose to 1,280K houses (the latest U.S building permits update); current estimates are for a fall to 1,110K;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the changes in the core consumer price index for June 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in May, the CPI increased by 0.4%; the core CPI edged up by 0.1%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index rose to 94.6;

Samirofi
07-20-2015, 08:49 PM
Financial Market Preview for July 20-24


The talks over the Greek debt crisis have started to subside, even though the drama continues. But for now, Grisis averted. The U.S.-Iran deal is also a big headline that also created some waves in the financial markets mainly in oil. Following these two news items, market volatility is likely to subside in the coming days. This week’s agenda include: U.S. new home sales, minutes of last RBA’s meeting, GB net borrowing, U.S. existing home sales, Japan’s trade balance, and Canada’s retail sales. So let’s examine the economic calendar for the week of July 20th to 24th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, July 20th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t change its cash rate, which is still set at 2%;


Tuesday, July 21st

09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on last month’s report, public net borrowing reached a surplus of 9.4 billion pounds; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments; current expectations are for a modest decline in the surplus to 8.6 billion pounds;
00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the last quarterly report, the CPI reached 0.2%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show a 0.8% quarterly gain;
04:05 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor will speak at the Anika Foundation Luncheon, in Sydney;


Wednesday, July 22nd

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the last MPC meeting, the Bank left its rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; the BOE isn’t expected to change its policy anytime soon;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for June 2015; in the previous May report, the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.34 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to rise to 5.40 million houses;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 17th;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In April 2015 the Japanese trade balance reached a 0.18 billion yen deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; the trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s developments in its demand for goods and services;


Thursday, July 23rd

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s report, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.2%;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the previous report regarding May 2015, manufacturing sales fell by 0.6%; current estimates are for a 0.7% gain in the next report;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 17th; in the recent report, jobless claims slightly rose to 281K; the expectations are for this number to slightly rise to 285K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 17th;
02:45 – China’s Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI: In the previous estimate, the PMI was still below 50 at 49.6; current estimates are for the PMI to inch up to 49.8;


Friday, July 24th

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous June update, France’s PMI increased again to 50.5 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are now expanding. Germany’s PMI rose to 51.9 – the industry is expanding faster. This time, the estimates are for the German PMI to inch up again to 52.1;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to June 2015; in the recent report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 546,000; current estimates are for a modest fall to an annual rate of 543,000;

Samirofi
08-04-2015, 10:18 AM
Financial Market Preview for August 3-7


The FOMC, as usual, didn’t make any major changes to its policy and didn’t offer any big headlines. But this was interrupted by the markets that there won’t be a September rate hike. Also, the U.S. GDP for Q2 came out and showed a gain of 2.3% — slightly below market estimates. In any case, energy prices kept falling, while precious metals rallied. The USD remains nearly flat against major currencies. This week’s main reports include: Non-farm payroll report, U.S. core PCE, BOJ, RBA and BOE rate decisions, U.S. factory orders, Great Britain manufacturing production, China’s CPI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, China’s CPI, and German factory orders. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of August 3rd to 7th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, August 3rd

09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in June, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 51.4 – market expectations are that in July the PMI edged up to 51.6;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to examine the changes in U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the PCE index rose by 0.9% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to inch up again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.2%;
15:00 – U.S. Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to July 2015. Back in June, the index rose again to 53.5; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster rate than in previous month’s estimates; this index may impact stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets; analysts expect this index to edge up to 53.6;


Tuesday, August 4th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.3%;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: In the previous update, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted to 2.75 billion Australian dollars; the monthly update will also present the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last time, RBA kept its cash rate flat at 2%. It also expected that the RBA were to keep rates unchanged this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and cut the rate considering the uncertainty China’s economic outlook;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in July; in the latest report regarding June factory orders fell by 1%; current projections are for a 1.8% bounce in July;


Wednesday, August 5th

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for July 2015 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $3.3 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for June will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for May, the goods and services deficit expanded to $41.9 billion; current projections are for the deficit to rise again to $42.6 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to July 2015. In the last update for June, this index edged up to 56 — the non-manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace compared to the previous month; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 56.4;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 31st;


Thursday, August 6th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding June 2015 the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) modestly rose by 7.3K people. This report may move the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders slipped by 0.2% during June; currently, the market expectations are for a modest gain of 0.4% July;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for June; in the last report regarding May 2015 the index fell again by 0.6%; this time, the estimates are for 0.2% gain;
10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation forecast for 2015and 2016;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: This event isn’t likely to make waves in the markets considering Bank of England isn’t expected to change its policy at this point;
12:45 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor is expected to hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 31st; in the previous report, jobless claims rose to 267K; the expectations are for this number to remain virtually unchanged at 269K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 31st;


Friday, August 7th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to change the bank’s asset purchase program;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for June 2015, unemployment remained flat at 6.8%; the employment declined by 6.4K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the last employment report regarding June 2015, the number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 223K – close to market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 5.3%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 224K), this could boost the USD and pressure down bullion prices;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted last month but is expected to expand in the next monthly report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI edged up to an annual rate of 1.4%; if the annual rate rises, it could signal the Chinese economy is progressing; the current expectations are for the CPI to inch up to 1.5%; in the meantime, the PPI remains negative at 4.8% — not a positive indicator for China’s economic progress;

Samirofi
09-07-2015, 05:34 PM
Financial Market Preview for September 7-11


The recent non-farm payroll – showing a gain of only 173K jobs in August — wasn’t too impressive at first glance, but a closer look shows the report wasn’t too bad — with upward revisions of previous months, modest gain in wages, and fall in rate of unemployment. This week, the NFP is still likely to echo in the financial markets along with the ongoing concerns over China. The main reports that will be released this week include: U.S. JOLTS, Japan’s GDP for Q2, BOC and BOE rate decisions, U.S. PPI, GB’s manufacturing sales, U.S. consumer sentiment, China’s trade balance, and IEA report. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of September 7th to 11th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, September 7th

00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the shifts in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the last monthly report, the surplus in the current account contracted to 1.30 trillion yen;
00:50 – Japan’s GDP for Q2: This will be the final estimate for Japan’s GDP growth rate in the second quarter. The current expectations are it will show a contraction of 0.4%. This comes after the economy grew by 1% in Q1 2015;


Tuesday, September 8th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted last month but is expected to rise again in the upcoming report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: Back in July Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate to 0.50%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any changes to its policy, but the ongoing weakness in Canada’s economy – mostly driven by low commodities prices – could lead the BOC to consider slashing rates again;


Wednesday, September 9th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for July; in the last report regarding June 2015 the index rose by 0.2%; this time, the estimates are for another 0.2% gain;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for July, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update for June, the number of jobs opening dropped again to 5.25 million; current market predictions are for the number to bounce back to 5.30 million;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 4th;


Thursday, September 10th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for July the rate of unemployment rose to 6.3%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) also increased by 38.5K people. The weakness in China is starting to affect the Australian labor market (see here the recent report);
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the previous report, the CPI edged up to an annual rate of 1.6%; if the annual rate rises, it could signal the Chinese economy is slowly heating up again; the current expectations are for the CPI to inch up to 1.9%; in the meantime, the PPI remains negative at 5.4% — and this month the PPI is expected to fall again to -5.6%;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: This event isn’t likely to make waves in the markets considering Bank of England isn’t expected to change its policy at this point;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 4th; in the previous report, jobless claims slightly increased to 282K; the expectations are for this number to slightly decreased to 279K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 4th;


Friday, September 11th

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show an updated (as of August) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2015 and 2016;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to August 2015. In last month’s report regarding July, this index for finished goods rose by 0.2% m-o-m; the core PPI increased again by 0.3%; current estimates are for the PPI to present a fall of 0.1%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index declined to 92.9;

Samirofi
09-21-2015, 05:12 PM
Financial Market Preview for September 21-25


Not only the FOMC opted out from raising rates – with only one dissenter for a rate hike in September – but it also tilted the markets as the members voiced their concerns over the global economy. This decision will continue to echo in the markets in the coming days. But another developments that could move the markets, at least in Europe, is the Sunday Greek elections. It’s a close race for now between Syriza and New Democracy. Besides these issue, this week other events and reports to consider are: U.S. GDP, FOMC Chair Yellen speaks, Greek elections results, U.S. new and existing home sales, ECB’s TLTRO, EU monetary development, ECB president Draghi talks, U.S. durable goods, and GB and German manufacturing PMI. So let’s review the agenda for September 20th to 25th:


(All times GMT):

Sunday, September 20th

Greek Parliamentary Election: The vote will determine whether Alexis Tsipras will stay in office and receive the mandate from the Greek people to continue with the bailout plan he signed with the Germans; for now, the elections are too close to call as Syriza has a very modest gain on New Democracy; here are the possible outcomes for this elections;


Monday, September 21st

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will refer to the U.S. existing home sales for August 2015; in the July report, the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to slip to 5.50 million houses;
19:45 –BOC Governor Poloz Speaks: The Governor is expected to talk about the commodity cycle and the Canadian economy, in Calgary;


Tuesday, September 22nd

09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on recent month’s report, public net borrowing reached a deficit of 2.1 billion pounds; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments; current expectations are for a shift to a surplus of 8.7 billion pounds;
02:45 – China’s Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI: In the last estimate, the PMI reached 47.1; current estimates are for the PMI to inch up to 47.6 – which would mean the manufacturing conditions are still contracting at a slightly slower pace;


Wednesday, September 23rd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last August update, France’s PMI declined to 48.6 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting. Germany’s PMI rose to 53.2 – the industry is expanding at a fast pace;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding July 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 0.8%;
14:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: He is also expected to testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee, in Brussels;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 18th;


Thursday, September 24th
10:15 – Targeted LTRO: The ECB will lend banks cash for lending it to people and companies; the last TLTRO brought in 73.8 billion Euros;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 18th; in the recent report the jobless claims fell to 264K;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to August and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of July 2015, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose by 2.2%, month over month, and all manufacturing industries increased by 0.4%; this time, however, durable goods are expected to show a 2% fall;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will pertain to August; in the recent report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 507,000; current estimates are for a gain to an annual rate of 516,000;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 18th;
22:00 – FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: She is also expected to speak at the University of Massachusetts, in Amherst; the title of her speech is “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy”;


Friday, September 25th

08:00 – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks: He will give a talk at the Young Factor Conference, in Florence;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of August 2015. In the July report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 5.3%; M1 increased to 12.1%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to households grew to 1.9%; current estimates are for another modest gain in the growth rate of M3 to 5.4%;
13:30 – Third U.S GDP 2Q 2015 Estimate: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q2 the GDP grew by 3.7% — higher than anticipated. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to remain at 3.7%. A better than expected growth rate could bring back up equities and commodities;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index slipped again to 91.9;

Samirofi
09-28-2015, 12:50 PM
Financial Market Preview for September 28- October 2


The U.S. dollar resumed its upward trend and strengthened against leading currencies including the Euro and Yen. The recent hawkish remarks of FOMC Chair Yellen along with the modest upward revision of the US GDP provided some backwind for greenback. Despite the recovery of the USD, commodities including oil and gold kept climbing in the past week. The high volatility in commodities market could suggest this recent rally of commodities may not last long. This week the main event will be the release of the NFP on Friday. Other report and events include: FOMC Yellen, Dudley and Fischer speak, EU flash CPI, GB GDP for Q2, U.S. factory orders, U.S. consumer confidence, Canada’s GDP, U.S. PCE, GB, China and U.S. manufacturing PMI, and Australian retail sales. So let’s review the main items for the week of September 28th to October 2nd.


(All times GMT):

Monday, September 28th

13:30 – FOMC members Dudley Speaks: He will discuss interest-rate increases and inflation expectations in an interview conducted by WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to analyze the shifts in U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the PCE index increase by 0.3% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up again by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.3%;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the changes in pending home sales in the U.S during August; in the previous update for July, pending home sales index rose by 0.5% (month-over-month). Currently, the market expects home sales to increase by 0.4% in the last month;


Tuesday, September 29th

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for August, the consumer confidence index rose to 101.5. The current estimates are that the index fell back 96.2;
20:40 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to talk at the Lloyds of London;


Wednesday, September 30th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for August 2015, retail sales increased by 1.4%;
09:30 – Final Estimate of Great Britain GDP Q2 2015: This report will present the final estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for Q2 2015; in the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.7%; currently, the market estimates the GDP report will show no change in the growth rate;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for August, the annual CPI was unchanged at 0.2%. The core CPI remained at 1%. The current estimates are that the inflation fall to 0% last month, and the core CPI to inch down to 0.9%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment slipped to 10.9%;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for September 2015 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for July 2015. In the previous update regarding June 2015, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.5%; the current expectations are for the GDP to rise by 0.2%;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 25th;
20:00 – FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: She is also expected to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve’s annual community banking conference, in St. Louis;


Thursday, October 1st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI declined again to 49.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. Current estimates are for no change;
02:45 – China’s Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI: In the previous estimate, the PMI fell again to 47.3; current estimates are for the PMI to decline again to 47.2 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting at a faster rate; it’s less important than the flash estimate but could still keep the markets concern;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in August, Great Britain’s manufacturing index fell to 51.5 – market expectations are that in September the PMI edged down to 51.3;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 25th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 267K; the expectations are for this number to rise to 273K;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to September 2015. In the recent update for August, this index fell to 51.1 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower rate compared to the last month; current estimates are for the PMI to fall again to 50.8;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 25th;


Friday, October 2nd

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade declined by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the August employment report, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by only 173K – below market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate slipped to 5.1%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 202K), this could keep driving up the USD and bring down precious metals;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in September; in the July report, factory orders bounced back by 0.4%; current projections are for a 0.9% drop in September;
18:30 – FOMC Member Fischer Speaks: He is due to speak at the Federal Reserve’s Macro-prudential Monetary Policy conference, in Boston;

Samirofi
10-06-2015, 09:45 AM
Financial Market Preview for October 5-9


Another disappointing non-farm payroll, in which only 142K jobs were added in September. Moreover, there were downward revisions for the two previous months for a total of 59K jobs. This puts into question whether the Fed were to raise rates this year. Besides the echoes of the NFP that will keep resonating in the markets, on this week’s agenda we also have: Minutes of FOMC, BOE, RBA and BOJ monetary policy meetings, Canada’s employment report, U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, U.S. trade balance, and EU economic summit. So let’s breakdown the main events of the week of October 5th to 9th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, October 5th

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: In the August report, the PMI declined to 59 — the non-manufacturing sector is growing albeit at a slower pace; current estimates are for the PMI to decline again to 58;
All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene to talk about the latest economic developments in the EU;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted to 2.46 billion Australian dollars; the monthly report will also present the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Draghi is expected to give a speech in Frankfurt;


Tuesday, October 6th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last time, RBA didn’t change its cash rate – which is set at 2%. The RBA is expected to maintain its rates unchanged this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and reduce rates or at the very least change the tone of the statement to account for the uncertainty around China’s progress and low metal and energy prices;
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders fell by 2% during August; currently, the market expectations are for a modest gain of 0.5% in September;
All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene to talk about the latest economic developments in the EU;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous update, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $0.6 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for August will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for July, the goods and services deficit shark to $41.9 billion; current projections are for the deficit to grow to $42.2 billion;


Wednesday, October 7t
h
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to expand the bank’s asset purchase program or at the very least drop some hints about it in the coming meetings – especially given the lack of growth in Japan’s economy;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for August; in the last report regarding July 2015 the index declined by 0.8%; this time, the estimates are for a 0.5% gain;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 2nd;
00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the recent monthly report, the surplus in the current account grew to 1.32 trillion yen;


Thursday, October 8th

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: The BOE will also release the policy summary and offer some insight behind the recent decision; last time one member voted against keeping rates low;
12:30 –ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 2nd; in the recent report, jobless claims increased to 277K; the expectations are for this number to slightly decreased to 274K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 2nd;
19:00 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to participate in a panel discussion about the global economy at the International Monetary Fund meeting, in Lima;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: Sometimes the minutes are revised to account for the recent economic developments. This time, we may see some reference to the latest NFP report and its impact on the Fed’s decision to keep rates low. Even without revisions, this report is likely to move the market considering the NFP report wasn’t strong, China’s economic turbulence and the uncertainty around the timing of raising rates;


Friday, October 9th

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding August, unemployment rose to 7%; the employment, by 12K;

Samirofi
10-12-2015, 02:55 PM
Financial Market Preview for October 12-16


The minutes of the FOMC didn’t offer much news and left the market guessing as to the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. On this week’s agenda we have the U.S. JOLTS, BOJ’s minutes of last meeting, EU CPI, U.S. PPI, Canada’s manufacturing sales, China’s CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. consumer sentiment, China’s trade balance, OPEC and IEA reports, and U.S. retail sales. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of October 12th to 16th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, October 12th

18:20 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to deliver a speech: “Integrating Financial Stability into Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics, in Washington DC.;
00:50 – BOJ’s policy meeting minutes: The minutes may reveal what’s up ahead for BOJ including whether its members are incline to raise the current QE program in the next meeting at the end of the month;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for September 2015; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month;


Tuesday, September 13th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded last month but is expected to change course again and fall in the upcoming report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last monthly update, the CPI slipped to 0% in August. The current projections are for the inflation to remained unchanged in September;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for September. In August, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped again to 12.1 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment declines again, this may imply a slowdown in the growth of its economy; the current estimates are for a fall to 6.8;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show an updated (as of September) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2015 and 2016;


Wednesday, September 14th

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate falls, it could signal the Chinese economy is slowly cooling down; the current expectations are for the CPI to inch down to 1.8%; in the meantime, the PPI remains negative at 5.9% — and this month the PPI is expected to remain low at -5.9%;
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the previous report, this index grew by 2.9%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 3.1%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last monthly report, the number of unemployed in GB rose by 1.2K; the rate of unemployment slipped to 5.5% and is expected to remain at this rate this time;
13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to September; in the previous August update, retail sales rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail, by 0.1%; current expectations are for a 0.1% drop in core retail sales in September;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to September 2015. In last month’s report regarding August, this index for finished goods was flat, m-o-m; the core PPI rose again by 0.3%; current estimates are for the PPI to show a fall of 0.2%;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 9th;


Thursday, September 15th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for August the rate of unemployment edged down to 6.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 17.4K people. The weakness in China could weaken the Australian labor market, which may prompt the RBA to act (see here the recent report);
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the changes in the core consumer price index for September 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in August, the CPI decreased by 0.1%; the core CPI edged up by 0.1%; this time, the CPI is expected the tick down by 0.2% and core CPI to rise again by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 9th; in the previous report, jobless claims decreased to 263K; the expectations are for this number to slightly rise to 269K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey, the growth rate dropped from +8.3 in August to -6 in September. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to -1.8 (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 9th;


Friday, September 16th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI inched down to annual rate of 0.1% in August; the CPI is estimated to have dropped by 0.1% in September;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding August 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 1.7%;
14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will show the changes in the U.S industrial production during September; as of August, industrial production slipped by 0.4%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index dropped to 85.7;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for August, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update for July, the number of jobs opening rose to 5.75 million; current market predictions are for the number to slightly increase to 5.77 million;

Samirofi
12-21-2015, 11:38 AM
Financial Market Preview for December 21-25


The historic (finally we can retire this characteristic) and expected rate hike decision by the FOMC was finally made last week. The market’s reaction seemed a bit of an anticlimax, given the ample preparation the Fed made before raising rates. Now we can start focusing on the Fed’s rate hike pace and normalization process. This week will be a short one due to Christmas. There are still a few important reports, but for the most part the market will slowly wind down and digest the Fed’s rate hike. Some reports to consider this week include: U.S. GDP for Q3, EU consumer sentiment, GB current account, U.S. core durable goods, Canada GDP, BOJ’s minutes of policy meeting, Canada retail sales, U.S. core PCE, and U.S. new home sales. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of December 21-25.


(All times GMT):

Monday, December 21st

15:00 – EU consumer Sentiment (final): Based on the latest report, the Euro Area consumer indicator rose by 1.6 to points -6 and is expected to remain unchanged this time;


Tuesday, December 22nd

09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on the last update, public net borrowing dropped to a surplus of 7.5 billion pounds; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments; current expectations are for a shift to a higher surplus of 11.9 billion pounds;
13:30 – Third and Final Estimate of U.S GDP for 3Q 2015: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q3 the GDP grew by 3.9% — marginally higher than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to change course and fall back to 1.9%. A lower than expected growth rate could drag down the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for November 2015; in the October report, the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to decline to 5.32 million houses;


Wednesday, December 23rd

09:30 – GB Current Account: According to the recent report, Great Brittan’s current account showed a lower deficit of 16.8 billion pounds. The current estimates are that the deficit will expand to 21.3 billion pounds;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding October 2015, manufacturing sales declined by 0.5%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for October 2015. In the previous update regarding September 2015, the real gross domestic product dropped by 0.5%;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This will refer to November’s figures and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of October 2015, core durable goods rose by 0.5%, month over month; this time, however, core durable goods are expected to inch up by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the progress in U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) remained unchanged. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up by 0.1%;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to November; in the latest report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 495,000; current estimates are for a faster growth with an annual rate of 507,000;
15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index rose to 91.3;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 18th;
23:50 – BOJ’s policy meeting minutes: Bank of Japan will release the minutes of the last policy meeting. It may show what’s up ahead for the BOJ in terms of when and if its members plan to expand QE anytime soon;


Thursday, December 24th

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 18th; in the recent report, jobless claims declined to 271K; the expectations are for this number to remained nearly unchanged at 270K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 18th;


Friday, December 25th

Christmas Day

Samirofi
12-28-2015, 09:36 PM
Financial Market Preview for December 28-31


As the year winding down, markets are likely to experience another slow week with little movement and low trading volume across the financial markets. This short week includes several reports that will be published including: China manufacturing PMI, Japan’s retail sales, U.S. pending home sales, EU monetary development, U.S. consumer confidence. So let’s review the main reports for the week of December 28th to 31st.


(All times GMT):

Monday, December 28th
23:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for November 2015, retail sales rose by 1.8%;


Tuesday, December 29th
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the last report for November, consumer confidence index fell again to 90.4;


Wednesday, December 30th
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of November 2015. In the October report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 5.3%;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during November; in the previous update for October, pending home sales index inched up by 0.2% (month-over-month);
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 24th;


Thursday, December 31st
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 24th; in the recent report, jobless claims slipped to 267K;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.6 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting at a faster pace;

Samirofi
01-04-2016, 05:36 PM
Financial Market Outlook for January 4-8


The first week of the year is upon us. This means markets return to function normally. This week entails several important reports that could drive back up market volatility. Some of these reports include: The U.S. NFP report, minutes of FOMC meeting, China’s manufacturing PMI, German factory orders, U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, EU’s flash CPI, and Australia’s retail sales. So let’s breakdown the main reports for the week of January 4th to 8th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, January 4th

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the recent estimate, the PMI rose to 48.6; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 48.9 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting, albeit at a slower pace;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for November 2015, retail sales slipped by 0.4%;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in November, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 52.7 – manufacturing is still expanding albeit at the slower pace;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to December 2015. In the recent update for November, this index declined to 48.6 — the manufacturing sector is contracting; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 49.1 – indicating the manufacturing conditions are still unfavorable;


Tuesday, January 5th

08:55 – German Unemployment: Last month, unemployment fell by 13K;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for November, the annual CPI inched up to 0.1%. The core CPI rose to 0.9%;


Wednesday, January 6th

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for December 2015 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $2.8 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for November will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for October, the goods and services deficit expanded to $43.9 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in November, the PMI declined to 55.9– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 30th;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: The minutes will provide another look regarding the Fed’s recent hike decision. And more importantly take the temperature of FOMC members with respect to future rate rises;


Thursday, January 7th

00:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: According to the previous report, the deficit rose to $3.31 billion;
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders increased by 1.8% during November; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 0.1% in December;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment inched down again to 10.7%;
13:25 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to talk at the Ottawa Business Journal and Chamber of Commerce Mayor’s Breakfast Series;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 30th; in the last report, jobless claims rose to 287K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 30th;


Friday, January 8th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade increased again by 0.5%;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding November, unemployment edged up to 7.1%; the employment decreased by 35.7K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report 211K jobs were added – slightly above expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5%. If the upcoming report shows another stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 202K), this could further pull up the USD;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 1.5%; if the annual rate changes course and falls, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up;

Samirofi
01-12-2016, 11:25 AM
Financial Market Preview for January 11-15


The NFP report was much better than expected with headline figure of 292K jobs – the expectations were set much lower at 203K. But market concerns over China’s economic woes kept weighing on equities and commodities. On this week’s agenda: U.S. JOLTS, BOE rate decision, Japan’s current account, U.S. PPI, U.S. consumer sentiment, GB manufacturing PMI, Australia’s employment report, U.S. industrial production and retail sales. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of January 11th to 15th:


(All times GMT):

Tuesday, January 12th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for November; in the last report regarding October 2015 the index declined by 0.4%; this time, the estimates are for a 0.1% gain;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for November, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update for October, the number of jobs opening slipped to 5.38 million; in the next report, the number is expected to reach 5.41 million;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted last month and is expected to moderately fall again in the upcoming report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;


Wednesday, January 13th

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 8th;


Thursday, January 14th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for November the rate of unemployment declined to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 71.4K people. The weakness in the commodities markets and China’s economic woes could adversely impact the Australian’s economy (see here the recent report);
13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to change its policy but the policy summery will be released and could offer some insight behind what’s next for the Bank’s monetary policy. The main takeaway will be the vote count and whether there will be, yet again, a dissenter to the vote;
13:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting from December; this report, however, isn’t likely to hit too many waves considering they refer to a policy change from a month and a half ago;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 8th; in the recent report, jobless claims slipped to 277K and is expected to remain unchanged this week – the outlook is at 278K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 8th;


Friday, January 15th

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refer to December; in the last November update, retail sales rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail, by 0.4%; this will be among the main reports that will show how strong December sales were compared to previous years;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to December 2015. In recent month’s report regarding November, this index for finished goods rose by 0.3%, m-o-m; the core PPI, by 0.3%; this will serve as a preview for the CPI report for next week;
14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during December; as of November, industrial production fell by 0.6%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index declined to 91.8;

Samirofi
01-25-2016, 01:53 PM
Financial Market Outlook for January 25-29

Another turbulent week ended with falling and then rising equities and commodities prices – mostly oil. Well, this week isn’t likely to be much different so expect more high volatility on all fronts. The main events of the week come from the U.S. including FOMC meeting and GDP for Q4. Also, consumer confidence and housing data will be released. There are two more central bank rate decisions including by BOJ. And in Europe, the flash CPI, German business climate, EU monetary development, GB GDP for Q4 are the main reports. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of January 25-29.

(All times GMT):

Monday, January 25th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of January. In the December report, the business climate index edged down to 108.7; currently, the market expects a modest slide to 108.5;
18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: He’s expected to speak at the Deutsche Borse New Year’s reception, in Frankfurt;

Tuesday, January 26th
10:45 – BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Carney is expected to testify on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee, in London;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the latest report for December, consumer confidence index bounced back to 96.5. The current estimates are that the index inch up to 96.6;

Wednesday, January 27th
00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the previous quarterly update, the CPI slipped to 0.5%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show another fall to 0.3% quarterly pace;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to December; in the previous report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 490,000; current estimates are for a faster growth with an annual rate of 503,000;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 22nd;
23:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for December 2015, retail sales declined by 1%;
19:30 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This is the first meeting of the year and considering the bearish market sentiment, strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar and concerns over China’s economic woes, the Fed is likely to refer to all these issues in this meeting. This meeting doesn’t include a press conference or revised outlook, so the statement will be the main event. Given the current market sentiment, people expect a dovish statement and perhaps a bit of backpedaling from the Fed’s previous hawkish statement;

Thursday, January 28th
09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q4 2015: This report will refer to the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2015; current projections are for a 0.5% gain;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 22nd; in the previous report, jobless claims rose to 293K; the expectations are for this number to fall to 281K;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to December and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of November 2015, core durable goods slipped by 0.1%, month over month; this time, however, core durable goods are expected to remain flat;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during December; in the previous update for November, pending home sales index declined by 0.9% (month-over-month); this time, however, the index is expected to rise by 1.1%;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 22nd;

Friday, January 29th
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to increase the bank’s asset purchase program. The bank will also release its revised outlook about the economy. Given the recent strength of the Japanese yen, the BOJ may decide to step up and introduce more stimulus or at the very least imply if there is more stimulus to come in the near term;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for December 2015, retail sales rose by 0.2%;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of November 2015. In the October report, the annual growth rate for M3 inched down to 5.1%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to slightly rise to 5.2%;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for December, the annual CPI inched up to 0.2%. The core CPI remained at 0.9%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for November 2015. In the previous update regarding October 2015, the real gross domestic product was 0%;
13:30 – First Estimate of U.S GDP for 4Q 2015: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s Q4 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q3 the GDP grew by 2% — not far off expectations. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to fall to 0.8%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;
15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index rose to 92.6;

Samirofi
02-01-2016, 03:18 PM
Financial Market Outlook for February 1-5


The recent rally in the stock market has eased the concerns over the prospects of a bear market in equities. But this could all change if U.S. and China’s economic reports show signs of slowdown. This week the focus will be on U.S. NFP report and China’s manufacturing PMI. Other reports to consider include: German factory orders, U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, EU’s unemployment, U.S. PCE, and two rate decisions by BOE and RBA. So let’s breakdown the main events for the week of February 1st to 5th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, February 1st
02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the PMI slipped to 48.2; current estimates are for the PMI to inch down to 48.1 – the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a faster pace;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in December, Great Britain’s manufacturing index declined to 51.9 – manufacturing is still expanding albeit at the slower rate; this time, the PMI is expected to slip to 51.8;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the changes in U.S. inflation. In the last report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up again by 0.1%;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to January 2016. In the recent update for December, this index declined to 48.2 — the manufacturing sector is contracting; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 48.6 – indicating the manufacturing conditions are still shirking but at a slower rate;
16:00 – ECB President Draghi testifies: He is expected to testify about the 2015 ECB Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg;

Tuesday, February 2nd
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 2%. The RBA is expected to maintain its rates flat this time as well;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment inched down again to 10.5%; it is estimated to remain unchanged;
Wednesday, February 3rd
00:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: According to the previous report, the deficit slipped to $2.91 billion;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for January 2016 that will be published on Friday;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in December, the PMI declined to 55.3– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace. And it’s estimated to reach 55.2 in the next report;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 29th;

Thursday, February 4th
08:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks: He is expected to speak at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Marjolin Lecture, in Frankfurt;
13:00 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2016 and 2017;
13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to raise rates. The main takeaway will be the vote count and whether there will be, yet again, a dissenter to the vote;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 29th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 278K; in the upcoming report, estimates are for 286K claims;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 29th;

Friday, February 5th
01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;
01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade increased again by 0.4%;
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders increased by 1.5% during December; currently, the market expectations are for a fall of 0.4% in January;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update regarding December, unemployment remained flat at 7.1%; employment increased by 22.8K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report 292K jobs were added – much more than expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained flat at 5%. If the upcoming report shows doesn’t show a stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 192K), this could bring down the USD;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance shrank to $2.0 billion;