Cot Report

[Samirofi]

Update: 05 August 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://broker-fa.com/forum/redirect-to/?redirect=http%3A%2F%2Fpcmbrokers.org%2Fpcmfileupl oad%2Fuploads%2Fpcm1375695449631.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375700791861.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1375700791932.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

[Samirofi]

Update: 12 August 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1376297676921.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376297676952.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/13762976773.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)


good luck - AbdolRahman :)

[Samirofi]

Summary

According to the CFTC report, market participants keep holding net short speculative positions vs. the US dollar on all major currencies except the euro. The largest net short position is seen in descending order on the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, British pound. Smaller volumes of short positions that are close to balance, are seen on the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

According to the latest report, the greatest changes occurred in the positioning on the European currency, the net position on the currency was positive. Such a change in positioning is a sign of a change in sentiment and it is considered a supportive factor for the currency.

Current positioning is not quite in line with our medium-term forecasts. We look forward to strengthening of the US currency by the end of the year, so the net long position on the Euro seems to be an opportunity to find an entry point for a short position opening.


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376308783951.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376308783992.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376308784023.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

[Samirofi]

Update: 19 August 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1376904858621.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376904858632.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1376904858683.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

[Samirofi]

Update: 26 August 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1377507158971.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1377507158982.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1377507159043.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

[Samirofi]

Update: 02 September 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1378108468591.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/137810846862.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1378108468673.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)


Good Luck :)

[Samirofi]

Update: 16 September 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1379319201421.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379319201462.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1379319201543.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

GooD Luck :)

[Samirofi]

Update: 24 September 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1380010126021.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380010126422.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380010126483.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

[Samirofi]

Update: 30 September 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1380527905611.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380527905652.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)
http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1380527905733.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

[Samirofi]

Update: 10 November 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1384103564381.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384103564382.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384103564463.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

Good Luck :)

[Samirofi]

Update: 18 November 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1384759104071.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384759104082.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1384759104163.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

Good Luck :)

[Samirofi]

Update: 25 November 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/pcm1385384648241.zip

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1385384648242.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/uploads/1385384648333.png (http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/)

Good Luck :)

[Samirofi]

Update: 23 December 2013

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387800528721.zip

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387800528732.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1387800528873.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

Good Luck :)

[Samirofi]

Update: 13 Jan 2014

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389612946571.zip

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389612946572.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)
http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1389612946723.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

Good Luck :)

[Samirofi]

Update:20 Jan 2014

CFTC "Commodity Futures Trading Commission" data table reports:

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1390214705451.zip

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1390214705452.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1390214705593.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

Good Luck :)

[Samirofi]

BULLISH USD SENTIMENT HAS SOFTENED

Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 16 & were released Friday Dec 19.

• USD bullish sentiment has softened, with today’s data marking
the fourth consecutive week of a narrowed USD long position.
Most of the change has come from closing EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP and
AUD shorts. The shift is noteworthy and is an early warning of a
potential shift in bullish USD sentiment. All the currencies are still
held net short against the USD; however it is noteworthy that NZD,
CHF, CAD, GBP and MXN all have net short positions smaller than
$2bn.

• The net short EUR position has narrowed to its smallest since
July, warning that sentiment towards EUR is turning, even as the
currency reached fresh lows today.

• This week’s $0.9bn narrowing in bearish AUD sentiment is the
largest in 8 months, pulling the net short position to $2.8bn. A
fourth consecutive week of building gross longs highlights a demand
for AUD exposure while leaving sentiment vulnerable in the
event of a renewed focus on downside risk. Bearish CAD sentiment
is modest and unchanged this week at $1.4bn.

• A $1.5bn narrowing in the net short ($9.3bn) JPY position highlights
bears’ continued vulnerability to periods of risk aversion,
with a second consecutive week of panic-induced short covering.

[Samirofi]

BEARISH EUR SENTIMENT HAS ROOM TO GROW
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Jan 20, ahead of policy meetings at the Bank
of Canada and ECB. Data were released Friday Jan 23.

• Sentiment favors long USD positioning, at $48bn in aggregate
and having softened somewhat in response to short covering in
CHF and JPY. The largest short position is in EUR, making up 54% of
the total USD position. For several currencies, there is risk of a
further build in short positions.

• Traders added to net short EUR positions for the fifth consecutive
week, suggesting a build in bearish sentiment leading into the
ECB decision. At $26bn, the net position is still below levels held
last November and accordingly has room to grow adding weight to
an already depreciating EUR. GBP sentiment has deteriorated for a
fifth consecutive week, to $4.3bn—its widest level since mid-2013.

• CAD sentiment has deteriorated for a fourth consecutive week,
with rising gross shorts adding to existing pressure from declining
longs. The $2.4bn net short position is now at its widest level since
May, steadily narrowing the gap to AUD (middle left p2).

• SNB-driven turmoil has driven short covering in both JPY and
CHF, with the latter’s net short position more than halving to
$1.4bn — a result of the largest decline in gross shorts since the
2013 taper tantrum. For JPY, the broader market tone continues
to dominate, leaving the net short $8.2bn at its narrowest since
July.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1422294911521.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

SURPRISINGLY SMALL SHIFTS IN SENTIMENT
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Jan 27 & were released Friday Jan 30.

• This week’s changes were immaterial; with every currency still
held net short against the USD but with little evidence of any desire
to add to these shorts. The net USD position narrowed to
$46bn, mainly on a paring in short JPY positions.

• CAD traders, facing low oil prices and building BoC risk, hesitated
to build out short positions and instead the shift this week was a
building in gross longs; which reduced the net short CAD position
to $1.9bn. A surprising shift considering the backdrop. AUD and
NZD saw limited positioning adjustments.

• The post-SNB environment of elevated uncertainty has been
beneficial to investor sentiment toward JPY and CHF, forcing traders
to pare back shorts over each of the past two weeks. While JPY
remains the largest held net short at $6.9bn, its position has narrowed
considerably since its $10bn level from Jan 13. For CHF, its
net short has been cut by 2/3, to $1bn from $3.2bn over the same
period.

• Sentiment toward EUR and GBP was remarkably stable week
over week, highlighting investor comfort with current positioning
as well as a hesitancy to build. The EUR net short position is sizeable
at $26.3bn, however it has yet to reach the $28.1bn level from
November. For GBP, the $4.3bn net short is unchanged from last
week—its widest level over the past year.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/142289366511.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

EUR SENTIMENT DETERIORATES TO 2012 CRISIS LEVELS

Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Feb 3 & were released Friday Feb 6.
• A clear divergence in sentiment this week saw short positions in
EUR, AUD and CAD widen as investors pared back risk in JPY, CHF
and GBP. For EUR, a build in the extended net short position suggests
renewed confidence in the potential for further downside,
pushing it to levels last seen in the 2012 crisis period. The aggregate
long USD position remains stable, largely composed of the
short EUR, with all other currencies held short as well.

• EUR sentiment has deteriorated, with this week’s $1.9bn widening
pushing the net short to $28.2bn—its widest level since the
2012 crisis period (top right p2). Details highlight that the erosion
in sentiment continues to be driven by a steady build in gross
shorts (middle right p2) and hints to renewed confidence among
EUR bears.

• Sentiment toward CAD & AUD has deteriorated, albeit for different
reasons as investors appear to be paring back CAD risk while
adding to bearish AUD positions. We note that the recent deterioration
in CAD sentiment has failed to match the magnitude of the
decline in spot (middle right p1), a contrast to AUD sentiment that
has deteriorated in tandem (top left p4).

• JPY, CHF, and GBP all saw their net short positions narrow this
week, the result of a paring back in risk (both long and short positions
falling). The JPY net short $6.3bn position is now at its narrowest
since November 2012.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1423515900041.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1423515900332.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

EARLY CLUES OF SHFITING SENTIMENT

Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Feb 10 & were released Friday Feb 13.

• The net long USD position was relatively stable this week at
$47bn; however there are subtle changes, early warnings that sentiment
might be in the midst of shifting. Most importantly, the
gross short position in all the majors (EUR, GBP, JPY and CHF) narrowed,
suggesting that there is some profit taking and that traders
lack the conviction to add to established positions.

• The net change in CAD was immaterial however it was one of the
only currencies that saw an increase in the net short position. Still
the net position of -$2.7bn is small compared to other currencies
and the lack of a significant build suggests a hesitancy by traders.
For AUD there was no material change this week, with the net
position of $4.1bn significantly larger than CAD’s.

• Bearish EUR sentiment has moderated for the first time since
mid-December (middle right p2), with this week’s modest $0.6bn
narrowing in the net short position to $27.5bn hinting to a reluctance
on the part of investors. GBP’s net short $3.7bn position is
relatively small, and bearish sentiment has softened over the past
three weeks.

• The net short JPY position has narrowed to $5.8bn, a level last
seen in late 2012 with the recent improvement in sentiment largely
driven by short covering. For CHF we note a paring back in risk
to both sides, highlighting considerable uncertainty on the part of
investors.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1424124348361.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

USD REMAINS FAVORED WITH MINOR SHIFTS IN SENTIMENT
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Mar 3 & were released Friday Mar 6.

• Every currency continues to be held net short against the USD
but changes this week were immaterial for most currencies. The
net long USD position is at $42bn (see chart), having narrowed by
small amounts for each of the last five weeks. This week’s data
provides few clues as to how sustainable the late week USD rally
will prove; however we expect that the breaking of spot ranges is
an important bullish shift.

• Traders are bearish the commodity currencies, holding both AUD
and CAD net short (-$3bn and -$5bn, respectively), but with minimal
changes this week.

• EUR remains the largest held net short at $24.1bn with a four
week, $4.1bn run of improving sentiment largely driven by a decline
in gross shorts (middle right, p2). The net short $2.6bn position
in GBP is relatively modest, however this week’s $0.5bn widening
is notable in that it marks a reversal of the improvement
that had been observed over the past five weeks.

• Investors have added risk to CHF and JPY in a manner that has
provided for a minor deterioration in sentiment toward both. The
build in gross shorts for CHF and JPY follows several consecutive
weeks of covering and may provide early clues to a bearish turn.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/142590260521.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

BULLISH USD SENTIMENT BROADENS FURTHER
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday March 10 & were released Friday March 13.

• Subtle shifts in the CFTC FX positioning data continue. The core
themes are: the market is bullish the USD, holding every currency
net short against the USD. EUR continues to make up the bulk of
that position; but the building short AUD position is now nearly as
large as JPY, marking a significant change. Also, FX participants are
taking increasing levels of risk, building on existing gross long and
short positions across most currencies (this theme is somewhat
hidden when looking just at net positions).

• The divergence in sentiment between CAD and AUD has continued
to build (middle left, p2) following this week’s build in gross
short AUD positions, pushing the net contract position to a fresh
record. CAD’s unchanged $3.1bn net short is relatively modest in
comparison to the $5.9bn net short AUD position
.
• EUR sentiment is bearish, its $24.2bn net short the largest held
among its peers. The minor change this week obscures sizeable
builds to both sides, with fresh longs likely caught flat footed by
the subsequent decline in spot.

• Investors added to bearish JPY, GBP, and CHF positions this
week, reinforcing the bias toward broad-based USD strength vs. all
of the majors. Sentiment toward all three has deteriorated for a
second consecutive week, hinting to early signs of a trend.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1426534273311.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

EUR SHORT REACHES FRESH RECORD
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday March 24 & were released Friday March 27.

• Three themes this week including: 1) EUR traders built substantially
on their short position, driving it to a new record; 2) Traders
pared risk towards AUD, CAD, NZD, JPY and GBP; 3) The bearish
trend continued in EUR and CHF; with the bullish trend in gold
increasing; while other trends are fairly neutral.

• EUR sentiment has deteriorated for a third consecutive week
with the net short widening $4.5bn — at the fastest pace since
May 2014. The net short position is a fresh record in terms of contracts,
however the $30.2bn value of the position has yet to reach
the $33.3bn record from June 2012 (top right p2).

• Investors have pared back risk in JPY, GBP, AUD, and CAD, the
latter seeing its gross long and short positions pared back for a
third consecutive week. Overall changes to CAD sentiment hint to
considerable uncertainty following a deterioration into mid-
March. The net short $2.6bn CAD position is modest within the
broader historical context.

• CHF sentiment appears increasingly vulnerable around neutral
levels, with changes over the past two weeks driven by gross
longs. This week’s $0.8bn deterioration has pushed CHF back into
net short territory at -$0.5bn.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1427698770231.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

EUR SHORT REACHES FRESH RECORD
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday March 24 & were released Friday March 27
.
• Three themes this week including: 1) EUR traders built substantially
on their short position, driving it to a new record; 2) Traders
pared risk towards AUD, CAD, NZD, JPY and GBP; 3) The bearish
trend continued in EUR and CHF; with the bullish trend in gold
increasing; while other trends are fairly neutral.

• EUR sentiment has deteriorated for a third consecutive week
with the net short widening $4.5bn — at the fastest pace since
May 2014. The net short position is a fresh record in terms of contracts,
however the $30.2bn value of the position has yet to reach
the $33.3bn record from June 2012 (top right p2).

• Investors have pared back risk in JPY, GBP, AUD, and CAD, the
latter seeing its gross long and short positions pared back for a
third consecutive week. Overall changes to CAD sentiment hint to
considerable uncertainty following a deterioration into mid-
March. The net short $2.6bn CAD position is modest within the
broader historical context.

• CHF sentiment appears increasingly vulnerable around neutral
levels, with changes over the past two weeks driven by gross
longs. This week’s $0.8bn deterioration has pushed CHF back into
net short territory at -$0.5bn.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1428341983742.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1428341983913.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

SENTIMENT SHIFTS TO A MORE BALANCED OUTLOOK
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Mar 31 & were released Friday Apr 3.

• Sentiment shifts to a more balanced USD outlook. The net long
USD position has been on a slow trend lower since reaching its
largest position of $49bn back in November 2014, it now sits at
just $41bn. The bulk of this position is held in EUR, accounting for
a -$30bn net short; while two currencies (NZD and CHF) have recently
shifted to net long positions vs. USD. In addition, the bearish
trend of all the remaining currencies held net short (CAD, AUD,
GBP and JPY) is decreasing. Accordingly, the weekly data is warning
of a slow shift towards a more neutral currency stance.

• The net short CAD position, now at just -$2.3bn, has narrowed
over the last four weeks. This week traders pared risks, closing
small pieces of both the gross long and short position, leaving a
minor narrowing of the net position. The market continues to be
bearish CAD but is lacking momentum.

• EUR was alone this week in showing a deterioration in sentiment,
with a small widening of the net short contract position
pushing it to a fresh record with a $30.4bn value (in value terms
the position has yet to reach the $33.4bn from mid-2012 — see
top right p2).

• JPY sentiment has materially improved in 2015 with a shift largely
driven by a closing of gross shorts (middle right p2). JPY is no
longer the second largest held short, its $2.5bn position now exceeded
by GBP’s $3.4bn.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1429039047881.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1429039048052.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

CHF, NZD & MXN ALL HELD NET LONG AGAINST USD
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Apr 14 & were released Friday Apr 17.

Traders are increasingly cauous with their broad based bullish
USD view. The net long USD posioned narrowed again and now
sits at $39bn, (compared to its November posion of $49.4, it is
20% narrower). In addion, MXN, NZD and CHF are now all held
net long. Finally, all other posions have experienced at least
some form of profit taking. Accordingly senment has shied, it
remains bullish the USD, but is no longer as strong as it was.
• There were limited changes to the net CAD and AUD posions
this week, at ‐$2.4bn and ‐$3.2bn, respecvely. However looking
at just the gross short side, the two have diverged materially over
the last several months (see chart on page 2), with a more aggressive
short AUD posion, likely reflecng the beer fundamental
posion of CAD.
• EUR is the largest net short (see chart on page 2) and is narrowing.
The data suggest that traders are pairing risk to both the long
and short side of EUR.
• JPY’s net short is now relavely small compared to the others
and is at just ‐$2.4bn. The posion has disconnected form USDJPY,
which has been trading in a range most of the year.
• The net MXN posion swung to long with a material buying. Typically
when currencies shi from net short to net long it is considered
a buy signal.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1429537996182.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

BULLISH USD SENTIMENT CONTINUES TO FADE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Apr 21 & were released Friday Apr 24.


• Sentiment towards the USD is bullish but continues to fade. The net position of $37.7bn has narrowed since its high of $49.5bn in November 2014. The bulk of the position continues to be held against EUR, with the short JPY having narrowed to just $1.5bn. Overall, the data suggest that sentiment for a strong USD is slowly fading, but that traders are still far from bearish. We see this as reflective of a range bound environment, that over the medium term favours USD strength.

• Bearish sentiment toward CAD and AUD continues to moderate,as it has since mid-March. Each have seen risk added to both the long and short side (bottom right p1, middle right p2), underscoring conflicted sentiment.

• EUR sentiment was little changed w/w, widening a relatively modest $0.5bn to $28.8bn. Investors have added risk to both the long and short side over the past two weeks, underscoring the current environment of uncertainty.

• Bearish JPY sentiment continues to moderate, currently at $1.5bn, its narrowest level since late 2012. Improvement since late 2014 has been primarily driven by short covering, with increasing longs observed since February.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1430238735081.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

BULLISH USD SENTIMENT SOFTENS FURTHER
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday April 28 & were released Friday May 1.

• The net long USD position narrowed to just $35bn, the smallest position since September 2014, signaling ongoing short covering as bullish USD conviction fades. However, with all currencies (except NZD and CHF) held net short, sentiment remains USD bullish, just to a lesser degree than at the height of recent USD strength.

• Short covering in CAD and AUD continued (p2 middle left), likely on the back of significant currency and commodity rallies; however there has yet to be a substantial build on the gross long side, implying that for now traders are losing conviction on the short side but still lack conviction to be long.

• Bearish EUR sentiment has softened further with the net short position narrowing $1.7bn to $27.1bn. A sizeable covering of gross shorts suggests continued capitulation on the part of EUR bears, while the long side hints to confidence as bulls build for a third consecutive week.

• Investor sentiment toward JPY has shifted into near balance for the first time since late 2012, the result of relentless short covering on a YTD basis (p2 middle right) —$7.4bn in aggregate.

• MXN and GBP were the only two currencies that saw an increase in short positions, likely for domestic reasons, like the upcoming U.K. election.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1430729677881.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

INVESTORS COVER SHORTS IN AUD, CAD, GBP, EUR

Data in this report cover up to Tuesday May 5 & were released Friday May 8.

• The bullish USD position continued to soften on the back of broad short covering in AUD, CAD, GBP and EUR ahead of key U.S.employment data. The aggregate long USD position now stands at$33.2bn, its lowest level since mid-September (top right p1). We note that EUR currently makes up 80% of the aggregate USD position, with most of the remaining currencies far closer to balance.

• Sentiment toward CAD and AUD has improved for a third consecutive week, putting the AUD position in balance for the first time since late September—a time when AUDUSD was near 0.88 (top left p4). CAD sentiment has also improved materially, however it continues to be held net short with a modest $0.8bn position (middle left p2).

• Bearish EUR sentiment remains sizeable with a $26.6bn net short, having narrowed modestly from $30.4bn in late March (top right p2). The position leaves EUR vulnerable to periods of short covering, as we have observed over the past several weeks.

• JPY was one of the few currencies to see a deterioration in sentiment this week, with the net short position widening $2.7bn to $3.3bn. The magnitude of the deterioration was notable, the largest since August 2014—hinting to the risk of a renewed build

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1431334192631.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/).

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

AGGREGATE USD LONG CONTINUES TO FADE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday May 12 & were released Friday May 15.

• The aggregate long USD position has come further into balance, falling by $3.3bn w/w to $29.9bn on the back of continued short covering across most currencies. The softening in bullish USD sentiment has accelerated over the past seven consecutive weeks and is now well below the $49.4bn record from late November.

• CAD sentiment is nearly balanced with a net short position of $0.3bn, a notable shift from the $3.1bn level from early March with the bulk of the improvement driven by short covering. For AUD, bullish sentiment has improved further with a fourth consecutive week of short covering allowing for a rise in the net long to $0.4bn.

• EUR sentiment remains overwhelmingly bearish, the $25.1bn net short position representing nearly 84% of the aggregate USD long.The position has improved only modestly since its $30.4bn level from late March, with the entire shift coming on the back of short covering over five of the past seven weeks. Recent EUR gains underscore the impact of short covering, hinting to further upside in the event of a continued adjustment.

• JPY risk has been pared further (middle chart p2) highlighting a considerable degree of uncertainty as investors reduce risk on both sides.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1431947425721.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

SHORT COVERING IN CAD & EUR CONTINUES
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday May 19 & were released Friday May 22.

• Bullish USD sentiment continues to fade, with this week’s moderation largely driven by short covering in EUR, GBP and CAD. The aggregate long USD position is now at $27.0bn, its lowest level since August 2014—with the $23.5bn EUR short position representing the bulk of it. CAD sentiment has shifted to net long, joining AUD and CHF in bullish territory. Bearish positions in GBP and JPY are relatively modest.

• CAD sentiment has turned bullish for the first time since September 2014, rising to a modest net long $0.4bn position following this week’s $0.7bn swing. Details are somewhat concerning however,as we note the paring back of risk to both sides, hinting to broader uncertainty and a lack of conviction on the part of bulls. For AUD,recent short covering has been complemented by a build in longs thus hinting to a much healthier bullish turn.

• EUR remains the largest held net short at $23.5bn, its recent improvement driven by four consecutive weeks of short covering.For GBP, the post-election turn in sentiment has been positive,albeit relatively muted with a $0.7bn narrowing in the net short to $2.3bn.

• Bearish JPY sentiment is steady at $2.3bn, however details highlight a sizeable build in risk-taking on both sides (see middle p2).

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1432558786661.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

BULLISH USD SENTIMENT APPEARS TO BE STABILIZING
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday June 2 & were released Friday June 5.

• The aggregate long USD position has climbed for a second consecutive
week, hinting to a potential stabilization in USD sentiment
following a steady moderation from the mid-November highs (top
right p1). The $36.4bn position is up $9.4bn over the past two
weeks, and is now at levels last seen in late April. All currencies are
held net short, with the exception of CHF.

• CAD sentiment has fallen back into balance, its $0.7bn deterioration
driven by a build in gross shorts—the largest build since the
oil-driven concerns from mid-October. The shifts in CAD sentiment
continue to be driven by the short side, and this week’s acceleration
hints to an increasingly bearish bias. The story for AUD is similar,
with investors building short positions at a pace not seen since
January 2014 (preceding the February RBA cut).

• The moderation in bearish EUR sentiment has resumed, as we
note a turn in details that hints to a shift from short covering to a
rise in confidence among EUR bulls. The net short $23bn EUR position
is by far the largest, however it has narrowed considerably
since its $30.3bn level from late March (top right p2).

• JPY sentiment has deteriorated for a second consecutive week
with a cumulative $6.3bn turn. Details highlight an aggressive build
in JPY shorts alongside a paring back of longs (middle right p2) .

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/143378133631.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

EUR SHORT COVERING CONTINUES; JPY BEARS AGGRESSIVE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday June 9 & were released Friday June 12.

• This week’s changes in sentiment were relatively limited, with
the bearish EUR position softening on the back of continued short
covering as JPY bears compounded their aggressive build for a
fourth consecutive week. CAD sentiment is once again decisively
bearish following a $1.0bn deterioration in the position. Investors
are bearish all currencies but CHF (bottom p2), however we note
that large short positions in EUR and JPY represent over 80% of the
aggregate $37.1bn USD long.

• CAD sentiment has deteriorated for a second consecutive week,
the net short position widening $1.0bn to $1.1bn. The decline in
longs provided for most of the swing, a notable development given
that most of the recent changes in sentiment have been driven
by CAD bears (bottom right p1).

• Bearish EUR sentiment continues to moderate on the back of
short covering, providing for the bulk of this week’s $3.6bn narrowing
in the net short—now at its smallest level in nearly a year
(top right p2).

• JPY bears continued to add to short positions at an aggressive
pace, with this week’s $2.6bn build the largest of the past four
consecutive weeks providing for an aggregate deterioration of
$9.5bn (middle right p2). The rapid build would have left newly
established positions especially vulnerable to a turn, amplifying
the impact of BoJ Gov. Kuroda’s FX comments.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1434377447491.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Tammyson]

AUD/USD H4

http://pcmupload.broker-fa.org/uploads/1435038496441.gif (http://pcmupload.broker-fa.org/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

EUR SENTIMENT CONTINUES SHIFT INTO BALANCE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday June 16 & were released Friday June 19.

• The moderation in bullish USD sentiment has resumed, fully reversing
the past three weeks’ cumulative build following an
$11.0bn w/w decline to $26.2bn—its lowest level since mid-
August (top right p1). The position continues to be dominated by
EUR and JPY, their combined positions representing roughly 80%
of the aggregate. All currencies are held net short with the exception
of CHF, and all came closer into balance this week with the
exception of MXN (see table below).

• CAD sentiment was relatively stable w/w, maintaining a net
short $1.0bn position. Both CAD and AUD are held relatively close
to balance (middle left p2), at the mid-point of their one year ranges
(bottom right p2). CAD risk is limited as we consider the relatively
small number of gross contracts held, fractions of the equivalent
positions held in AUD and thus leaving the latter vulnerable
to adjustment.

• Bearish EUR sentiment has come further into balance, its net
short position narrowing $6.9bn w/w to $12.3bn—the narrowest
level since mid-July. Investors have become increasingly bullish
EUR over the past four weeks, an important turn that has accelerated
the shift in sentiment amid steady short covering since late
March (middle right p2).

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1435043900351.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

JPY SHORT COVERING CONTINUES
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday July 7, & were released Friday July 10.
• Investors continue to hold short positions in all currencies but
CHF, maintaining their largest bearish positions in EUR and JPY
alongside modest net shorts in CAD, MXN, GBP, and AUD. Changes
this week were relatively minor, reflecting considerable short covering
in JPY and a paring back of risk to GBP along with a sizeable
build in risk for CAD. The aggregate USD position climbed a modest
$1.8bn to a fresh four week high of $29.3bn (top right p1).

• Investors have added to CAD risk for a second consecutive week,
building positions on both sides (bottom right p1) reflecting a divergence
in participants’ near term expectations. The net short
position is relatively sizeable at $2.5bn, its largest level since late
March with vulnerability arising from the newly built positions and
investors’ response in the event of a violent turn in spot or break
to fresh lows. For AUD the story is one of growing bearish sentiment,
with an accelerated build in gross shorts.

• EUR sentiment was little changed at $13.7bn (top right p2), its
stability reflecting the nature of EUR risk in the current environment.
The positioning leaves EUR vulnerable to upside risk in the
event of renewed short covering (middle right p2).

• JPY short covering has continued for a fourth consecutive session,
providing for a sizeable $1.6bn narrowing in the net short to
$6.5bn.
http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1436806425961.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

INVESTORS ADD TO CAD RISK & COVER JPY SHORTS
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday July 14 & were released Friday July 17.

• The aggregate long USD position has climbed for a second consecutive
week (top right p1), its rise the result of an adverse shift
against all currencies but JPY. EUR and JPY are the largest held net
shorts, with modest bearish positions in CAD, AUD, GBP, and MXN
and a lone long in CHF (see table below and bottom charts p2).

• The deterioration in sentiment toward CAD and AUD is accelerating
as investors build their short positions in both (middle left
p2). However details for CAD are notable as consider the concurrent
build in longs (bottom right p1), leaving those freshly built
long positions vulnerable to covering in the event of a continued
decline in spot.

• Investors have added to their gross short EUR positions for the
first time since late May, highlighting the risk of a potential turn
toward an increasingly bearish bias as we note an ongoing moderation
in EUR longs (middle right p2). GBP risk has been pared further,
given the decline in both long and short positions—
underscoring a broader sense of uncertainty with investors unable
to determine a clear bias in the current environment.

• JPY shorts have been pared for a fifth consecutive week, a development
that highlights an ongoing vulnerability to broader sentiment.
We note the lack of a concurrent build in longs, hinting to
the balance of risk for investors.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1437411788311.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

CAD SENTIMENT DETERIORATES AT AN ACCELERATED PACE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday July 28 & were released Friday July 31.

• Bullish USD sentiment has held flat w/w at $33.4bn, stalling a
rise that had begun in mid-June (top right p1). The bulk of this
week’s changes were observed in GBP, EUR, CAD and AUD, with a
narrowing of bearish positions in the former two and ongoing deterioration
in the latter.

• CAD sentiment continues to deteriorate, with a $1.0bn widening
in the net short position to $4.4bn. The details are weak, showing
an apparent capitulation on the part of CAD bulls whose position
had built for four consecutive weeks prior to this week’s decline
(bottom right p1). CAD bears have also built their short positions
steadily since late May, suggesting a rising expectation for continued
currency weakness. The CAD net short remains larger than
that for AUD, an atypical dynamic, with the latter showing a
$0.7bn widening in the net short to $3.7bn (middle left p2).

• EUR sentiment has shown a material improvement for the first
time in six weeks, the net short narrowing $1.1bn to $14.4bn on
the back of short covering as well as a second consecutive build in
longs (middle right p2). The turn highlights a risk for EUR as we
note that it remains the largest held net short, nearly double that
of the next largest—the $6.4bn short JPY position. JPY sentiment
has held relatively flat, with risk being pared from both the long
and short side in consideration of shifting risks. Vulnerability for
JPY relates to sentiment and is most relevant to JPY shorts.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1438682611331.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1438682611582.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

CAD BEARS RETREATING; JPY SENTIMENT NEAR NEUTRAL
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Sep 1 & were released Friday Sep 4.

• The aggregate long USD position has fallen $2.5bn w/w to
$24.3bn, its lowest level since July 2014. Changes resulted from an
improvement in sentiment toward most currencies with the exception
of GBP and MXN, with a notable moderation in bearish sentiment
toward JPY. EUR remains the largest held net short at $9.5bn
followed by CAD at $4.2bn and AUD at $3.9bn (bottom left p2).

• Bearish CAD sentiment has moderated for a third consecutive
week, with a near $1bn narrowing in the $5.1bn net short from
early August. CAD bears have pared back their positions in three of
the past four weeks (bottom right p1), highlighting a moderation in
expectations for further weakness. For AUD, its w/w position
change was the greatest since mid-June, providing for a $0.6bn
narrowing in the net short to $3.9bn. AUD sentiment continues to
be driven from the short side, with limited movement in the gross
long position over the past six months.

• EUR sentiment was flat w/w, leaving the net short position relatively
unchanged at $9.6bn. Considerable risk was pared to both
sides, highlighting a degree of uncertainty on the part of investors.

• The net short JPY position has moderated considerably, its near
$9.0bn narrowing from early August the result of short covering
with added support from a second consecutive weekly build in
gross longs—the latter suggesting some confidence in the near
term outlook for JPY (middle right p2).

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1441633270191.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1441633270392.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

IMM INVESTORS GO DEFENSIVE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Sep 15 & were released Friday Sep 18

Not surprisingly perhaps, IMM data showing speculative market
positioning in the week through Tuesday September 15th
reflected investors mostly shifting to neutral or defensive
mode ahead of the FOMC meeting. For the most part, CTAtype
accounts reduced their bullish bets on the USD again
and, in aggregate, the IMM’s overall bull bet on the USD fell
another USD2.1 bn, to total USD22.7bn.

Net GBP shorts were reduced aggressively, falling from
USD1.7 bn in total through September 8th to USD 347
mn. Net CHF shorts were reversed from USD880 mn to a
modest net long of USD 485 mn in total this week. In the
commodity currency space, net CAD shorts were trimmed
modestly, with similar–but larger nominal–adjustments evident
in the AUD and NZD contracts.

Investors concentrated their firepower on the EUR and JPY
instead. This is likely because any shift upwards in US interest
rates the US would contrast most obviously with zero
(negative) and the easier still policy bias of the ECB and
BoJ. Bearish bets on the JPY jumped sharply, with the net
short bet rising by USD700mn to USD2.78 bn—still a relatively
small position for this market. Investors boosted net EUR
shorts by nearly USD500 mn in the week to USD11.86 bn—still
well below the peak net short activity earlier this year.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1442848191111.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1442848191332.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

UNCERTAINTY DRIVES POSITION REDUCTION
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Sep 22 & were released Friday Sep 25.

• IMM‐based investors responded to the vola������lity in global markets
that followed in the wake of the FOMC’s rate decision on September
17th in rather mixed fashion but the overall result was a
further reduc������on in the aggregate bull bet on the USD on the IMM
to the lowest in a li������le more than a year.

• Investors were not exactly discrimina������ng in posi������oning, however.
Data reflect a decent reduc������on in the net short bet on the
JPY—which makes sense from a risk aversion point of view as
holding the JPY is typically preferable in periods of vola������lity. But
Investors flipped a small bull bet on the CHF in the previous week
to a rela������vely smaller net bearish posi������on— not what one would
expect in a generally risk‐averse environment, as the CHF also typically
picks up refuge support during risk averse market phases.

• Along similar lines, investors boosted net short AUD posi������ons in
the latest week but cut the bearish bet on the CAD back significantly;
this may reflect a view on the commodity block’s rela������ve
exposure to China‐driven uncertain������es and, as a cross trade, it is a
view we would concur with a������er the AUDCAD cross’s recent turn
lower from the 0.95+ area (spot terms).

• Net short EUR s������ll represents the largest exposure for IMM players
and the EUR’s squeeze higher to 1.15 (spot) following the
Fed—while short‐lived—clearly forced investors to the sidelines.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1443467532671.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1443467532862.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

SPECULATORS EDGE BACK TO THE SHORT EUR TRADE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Sep 29 & were released Friday Oct 2.

• CFTC data for the week through September 29th showed rela‐
vely limited posioning changes among the speculave and leveraged
investor community. Aer three weeks of moderang exposure
to the long USD trade (as reflected by aggregated posioning
in all the major currencies), however, IMM data suggest these
counterpares stepped up the big dollar bull bet once more. The
aggregate USD long amounts to USD23.2bn this week, from
USD21.0bn in the prior week.

• As usual, posioning in the EUR contract is the swing factor.
Net short EUR posions rose by around 5.5k contracts this week,
or the equivalent of just over USD 1bn to a total bear bet (net) of
USD12.3bn. Other majors reflected rather neutral posioning
changes—minor net shorng acvity remains evident in the GBP
and CHF. Investors retain a net short JPY posion in the JPY
(equang to a lile more than USD2.3bn) but exposure in the Japanese
currency remains really quite flat.

• In fact, behind posioning in the EUR, net shorts in the AUD and
CAD represent the next most significant vehicles for expressing a
bullish USD view. It remains to be seen whether the CAD posion
can withstand the rather sharp squeeze seen today (we suspect
not). Investors sll appear to lack convicon though. Last week’s
bump up in net AUD shorts and reducon in net CAD longs (which
we thought—and connue to believe—made sense from a cross
posion perspecve) was reversed this week.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1444142591732.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1444142591793.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC


CAD SENTIMENT DETERIORATES AS MOST OTHERS IMPROVE
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Dec 15 & were released Friday Dec 18, reflecting positions ahead of the Fed meeting while encompassing the SNB meeting.

• Investors lightened up their USD exposure into Wednesday’s
Fed, pressuring the aggregate USD long position with a remarkable
$9.3bn w/w drop. Investors pared shorts in all currencies with the
exception of NZD and CAD, with deterioration in the latter allowing
it to become the second largest held net short after EUR. JPY
and CHF had the largest w/w swings, the latter’s incorporating the
Dec 10 SNB decision. CHF is now held net long.

• CAD sentiment continues to deteriorate as investors position for
further decline, with gross shorts building in five of the last six
weeks. The net short $3.7bn position is relatively modest, leaving
it with ample scope to reach and exceed the $5.1bn level observed
in late summer. AUD sentiment continues to improve, narrowing
an impressive $4.0bn over the past four weeks. The details also
hint to confidence as we note that four weeks of short covering
have been compounded by this week’s sizeable build in longs.

• EUR sentiment has improved for a second consecutive week, the
net impact of short covering somewhat restrained by this week’s
drop in longs. We highlight EUR’s ongoing vulnerability to positioning
adjustment given the sizeable $21.9bn net short.

• Short covering in JPY has accelerated, the net short narrowing an
impressive $4.2bn to $2.7bn.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1450684129011.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1450684129212.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

• Changes in FX sentiment were limited for the week ended December
22nd, leaving EUR as the largest held net short (-$22.1bn),
with CAD a far away second given its net short -$4.0bn position.
The aggregate USD long improved modestly for the first time in
four weeks, rising $2.4bn to $34.5bn. Minor deteriorations were
observed in GBP, AUD, JPY and CAD. CHF is the only currency held
net long (bottom left p2).

• CAD sentiment has deteriorated for six consecutive weeks,
providing for a cumulative $2.7bn widening in the net short since
mid-November—to its current -$4.0bn level. The position is still
shy of the widest level observed for 2015 (bottom right p2), its mid
-July net short of $5.1bn. The all-time record CAD net short stood
at -$7.4bn in April 2013. AUD sentiment has deteriorated for the
first week in five, the $0.8bn widening in the net short entirely
driven by a drop in longs. AUD sentiment remains close to neutral,
at the upper end of its 2015 range (bottom right p2).

• GBP sentiment appears vulnerable as we consider this week’s
sizeable $1.1bn build in gross shorts, widening the net short to
$2.5bn. Considerable risk has been added to both sides over the
past two months, leaving newly added longs vulnerable to the
recent deterioration in spot.

• EUR sentiment was remarkably quiet, the net short -$22.1bn
position basically unchanged on a w/w basis. The sizeable short
remains the greatest vulnerability for EUR.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1451919618393.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1451919618162.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

JPY NET LONG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER 2012
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Jan 5 & were released Friday Jan 8.

• This week’s changes in sentiment have been limited to JPY, its
$2.2bn w/w swing pushing it into net long territory for the first
time since 2012. CHF is also held net long, and the combination of
bullish sentiment in both CHF and JPY underscores an important
signal to the underlying tone of broader markets. EUR remains the
largest held net short with a sizeable $21.6bn position, followed by
relatively minor net short positions in CAD ($4.3bn) and GBP
($2.8bn). The aggregate USD long is at three month lows.

• This week’s minor stabilization in the CAD net short position,
narrowing $0.1bn to $4.3bn, follows seven consecutive weeks of
deterioration that had provided for a cumulative $3.0bn build in
the net short. The deterioration mirrors that observed in spot
(middle right p1), suggesting little risk arising from positioning adjustment.
Conversely, we highlight considerable positioning risk in
AUD given the limited bearish sentiment represented by its modest
$1.0bn net short.

• EUR’s sizeable $21.6bn net short position presents considerable
risk in the current environment, leaving it vulnerable to squaring
the event of further turbulence.

• JPY’s bullish shift in sentiment is the most notable development
of the week given its $2.2bn swing into net long territory. This represents
the first net long JPY position since October 2012, and its
occurrence is all the more remarkable as it has been driven almost
entirely by a build in longs, rather than shorts running for cover

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1452586904072.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1452586903841.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

HOLIDAYS & VOLATILITY DRIVE SPECULATIVE POSITIONING
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Jan 19 & were released Friday Jan 22.

• Changes in speculave posioning in aggregate appear subdued in the latest CFTC report covering the week through January 19th,perhaps reflecng the MLK holiday on the 18th. The market’s aggregate long USD posion this week stood at USD27.3bn—more or less exactly the same as the prior week’s posion. Sll, some fairly large posioning shis were taking place below the surface as investors connued to shun riskier currencies and favour the JPY.

• Investors moved to trim short posioning in the EUR this week,reducing the net speculave bet against the EUR to a lile less than USD 19bn. We suspect that strong hints from ECB President Draghi Thursday that further policy accommodaon is likely in the next few weeks will boost speculave bets against the EUR again— especially if the FOMC messaging remains construcve at next week’s Fed policy meeng.

• Investors boosted net short CAD posioning through January 19th as the CAD’s losing start to 2016 connued. Posioning here should moderate, however, considering the CAD bounce and apparent turn in the CAD trend following the unchanged BoC policy decision Wednesday. Net CAD shorts have perhaps peaked out at 66.4k contracts this week, right on the most recent peak short of 67k contracts seen last July.

• Risk aversion helped define posioning changes elsewhere; investors increased net bets against the AUD significantly (less so versus the NZD) and increased defensive posioning in the JPY where the net long equates to the biggest bull bet since late 2012.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1453711572461.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/145371157262.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

SPECULATIVE INVESTORS IGNORE CENTRAL BANK CUES
Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Jan 26 & were released Friday Jan 29.

• IMM posioning data for the week through Tuesday suggest investors are less convinced by the USD’s bullish credenals these days. The aggregate bull bet on the USD dropped a lile over USD 1bn to USD26.2bn, the smallest aggregate posion reflected in this data series since mid‐October.

• The changes are somewhat surprising, we think, considering the central bank policy backdrop. Firstly, investors failed to add significantly to their bearish bets on the EUR despite strong hints from ECB President Draghi last week that policy could be eased further. In fact, net bull bets on the EUR fell by USD1.4bn this week, mainly a reflecon of investors covering the EUR shorts. Speculave accounts connued to boost bull bets on the JPY, meanwhile, but (following today’s BoJ easing and JPY sell‐off) we assume this trend will reverse next week. Net JPY longs rose USD1.2bn through Tuesday to the highest in four years.

• A second surprise in this week’s posioning is the lack of change in net CAD bear bets. In fact, the net posioning edged a lile more CAD‐negave through Tuesday, despite last week’s unchanged BoC decision. Investors were happy to fade the inial CAD rebound at least but may be less inclined to do so now. Bearish CAD bets remain at a relave extreme, suggesng plenty of room for the CAD to bounce.

• The IMM’s net short GBP posion was boosted by some 9k contracts this week (equang to a USD850 mn boost) as expectaons of BoE rate hike this year connue to fade.

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1454322650661.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/uploads/1454322650842.png (http://pcm-fx.com/pcmupload/)

[Samirofi]

FX SENTIMENT REPORT - COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—CFTC

CAD SENTIMENT IMPROVES ON BACK OF SHORT COVERING

Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Feb 2 & were released Friday Feb 5. Data include the Fed and BoJ policy decisions as well as Fed VC Fischer’s comments.• The aggregate USD long position has fallen to a fresh multimonth low, dropping $5.4bn w/w to $20.9bn (top right p1) at levels last seen in late October. This week’s changes were largely driven by a moderation in bearish sentiment toward CAD and EUR, offset somewhat by a decline in the JPY net long. All three changes are likely the result of shifting central bank policy risks as the position date incorporates both the Fed and BoJ meetings as well as public appearances from the Fed’s Fischer and ECB’s Draghi.

• CAD sentiment improved materially, the net short CAD position narrowing $1.0bn to $3.7bn in a somewhat belated response to the BoC’s Jan 20 policy hold. Details include an overall paring of risk, as we note a decline in both long and short positions (bottom right p1)—suggesting uncertainty rather than confidence in the near term path for CAD.

• The net short EUR position narrowed a remarkable $5.4bn to $11.9bn at levels last seen in mid-October (top right p2). The position has narrowed nearly $12.5bn from the pre-ECB levels from early December with a nearly unbroken liquidation of shorts over the past 9 weeks. Rising confidence among bulls is also noted, with a three-week run of rising gross longs (middle right p2).

• JPY sentiment deteriorated for the first week in six, with a $1.4bn narrowing in the net long to $3.9bn. Subsequent movement in JPY would suggest a reversal of this week’s changes.

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