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Samirofi
08-18-2014, 03:24 PM
August 18-22

The US dollar was able to advance against the major currencies but retreated against commodity currencies in a week that saw some action. US housing and inflation data, Inflation data in the UK, the FOMC Meeting Minutes, and Janet Yellen’s speech are a few of the major events on Forex calendar. Follow along as we explore the Forex market movers for this week.


US retail sales disappointed with a flat reading in July, a poor start to the third quarter, suggesting some loss of momentum. Also jobless claims fell short of predictions with a rise back above 300K and JOLTS job opening were only OK. Will this allow Yellen to continue her dovish stance in Jackson Hole? The pound that was pounded down by Mark Carney. Without wage growth, rates cannot rise fast, and this theme is relevant also for other countries. In Germany, another fall in business confidence is certainly worrying and weaker than expected GDP numbers confirmed the fragile nature of the euro-zone recovery. And in Japan, the fall in GDP has been sharp but there was a sliver lining


Updates:



Aug 18, 10:20: Monitoring Sterling Volatility: A calmer tone has emerged in the past few sessions that suggests the second half of the month could prove...






UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK consumer prices edged up 1.9% in June, amid price rises in food and summer clothes. The reading was higher than the 1.6% climb forecast by analysts and topped May’s 1.5% increase. This rise may prompt the BOE to increase rates sooner than estimated. Inflation is expected to remain tame in the coming months, however, the inflation threat will rise if wages increase. UK consumer prices are expected to reach 1.8% this time.
US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:20. U.S. housing starts and building permits unexpectedly fell in June, indicating uneven growth in the housing market, following the slowdown in late 2013. Permits declined 4.2% to a 963,000-unit pace in June, while economists expected them to rise to a 1.04-million unit pace. Permits for single-family homes edged up 2.6% to a 631,000 unit-pace, the highest level since November. Permits for multi-family housing plunged 14.9% to a 332,000-unit pace. A rise to on million unit pace is forecasted now.
US Inflation data: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices gained 0.3% in June, following 0.4% increase in May, amid a rise in gasoline prices. The rise was in line with market forecast. On a yearly base CPI edged up 2.1% as in May, indicating inflationary pressures are building up. Fed Chair Janet warned the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than estimated if the job market continued to improve. Meanwhile, core inflation excluding energy prices rose 0.1% after rising 0.3% in May. In the 12 months through June, the core CPI increased 1.9 % after climbing 2.0% in May. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.1% , while core prices are expected to gain 0.2%.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In the last meeting in July, the Fed decided to taper bond buys for the sixth time, as expected and sent a mixed message: it show more calm about inflation reaching its target, but did stress that the labor market is underutilized. The minutes will allow a peek into the internal debate and could hint about the next moves of Yellen and her colleagues.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans applying for U.S. unemployment benefits increased last week to 311,000 from 290,000 in the previous week. Despite the 21,000 climb, jobless claims remain close to pre-recession levels. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, increased 2,000 to 295,750, nearing the averages before the Great Recession in late 2007. The number of jobless claims is expected to grow by 299,000.
US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. U.S. existing home sales edged up in June to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.04 million units, rising 2.6% from May, however still below the 5.16 million-unit rate seen last year. Economists expected a lower figure of 4.98 million units. Inventories remained high and price gains slowed in many parts of the country increasing transactions. Nevertheless, the housing sector remains a concern for the Federal Reserve ever since the rise in mortgage rates in 2013. Existing home sales are expected to reach 5.01 million units.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region picked up in July to 23.9 points, rising 6.1 points from June. This was the fastest gain in more than three years. Analysts expected the index to drop to15.6 in July. The current new orders component increased 17 points. The current indicators for labor market conditions to improve. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to reach 20.3.
Janet Yellen speaks: Friday, 14:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak to the central bank’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Yellen will deliver a speech titled “Labor Markets.” She will not answer questions from the audience. The Fed’s three-day gathering of central bankers and economists will be titled “Re-evaluating Labor Market Dynamics.” The conference has foreshadowed some of the Fed’s major policy shifts. Market volatility is expected.
Mario Draghi speaks: Friday, 18:30. European Central Bank head Mario Draghi will follow Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and talk about employment issues. Market volatility is expected as Draghi might respond to the lack of growth in the euro-zone.




That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
08-22-2014, 08:20 PM
August 25-29

The dollar dominated once again, with multi-month gains against major currencies. Is it time for a correction or will this trend continue? German Ifo Business Climate, US housing data, Durable Goods Orders and GDP are amongthe highlights of this week. Follow along as we explore the Forex market movers coming our way.


This was quite a week in financial markets: upbeat US data (especially housing) pushed the dollar higher, and it later got a boost from the not-too-dovish FOMC minutes. In Jackson Hole, Janet Yellen’s much awaited speech did not contain any major surprises, and that was enough to keep the ball rolling for the US dollar. EUR/USD dropped to an 11 month low, also due to ongoing tensions around Ukraine and despite not-too-shabby PMIs. The pound was hit hard by weak inflation and despite two members voting for a rate hike. The Aussie showed resilience, defying a weak Chinese figure.




German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. German business mood continued to deteriorate in July reaching a worse than estimated reading of 108.0, following 109.7 reading posted in June. Tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East remained the chief concern of German businesses. Easing economic momentum after a strong first quarter also contributed to this fall. Domestic activity remained elevated pointing to growth. Business climate is expected to fall to 107.1 this time.
US New Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. The U.S. housing market was unable to gain traction in June posting a lower than expected annualized pace, reading of 406,000 from 442,000 in May. Analysts expected sales to pick up to 485,000. Restrictive lending rules, limited land supply and higher mortgage rates weigh on the housing market. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen expressed her concern that the industry is underperforming. New home sales is forecasted to reach 426,000 in July.
US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods edged up more than expected in June rising 0.7% amid a rise in demand from transportation to machinery and computers and electronic products. The reading was well above predictions of a 0.4% rise following May’s 0.9% decline, suggesting a growth trend in the economy at the end of the second quarter. Meanwhile Core orders picked up 0.8% after a flat reading in May, while expected to gain 0.6%. Orders for durable goods are expected to pick-up 7.4% in July, while Core orders are predicted to gain 0.5%.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. US consumer confidence rose in July to a nearly seven-year high, reaching 90.9, the highest since October 2007. This increase was higher than the 85.5 anticipated by analysts and followed 86.4 points posted in July. The labor market growth trend had a positive effect on consumer spending and equity markets remain strong. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve policy makers are forecast to keep interest rates low well into 2015 even as they stop monetary stimulus. Consumer confidence is expected to reach 89.1 this time.
US GDP: Thursday, 12:30. The US economy grew at annualized pace of 4% in Q1, according to the initial publication. This was certainly encouraging, especially after a significant contraction of 2.1% in Q1 (after yet another revision). The second estimate of GDP is expected to show a minor tick down to 3.9%. Components of growth will also be watched: more consumption and investment will cheered upon, while a buildup of inventory will not be very encouraging
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. US Jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 298,000 last week showing the labor market is making progress hand in hand with the growth momentum in the US economy. Last week’s reading was much better than the 302,000 reading expected by analysts. The four week average of claims, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, increased to 300,750 last week from 296,000. The number of people on jobless benefit rolls dropped by 49,000 to 2.5 million in the week ended Aug. 9, posting the lowest level since June 2007. Jobless claims are predicted to rise 299,000 this week.
US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes declined 1.1% in June, following a 6.0% gain in May, worse than the 0.2% decline forecasted by analysts. The unexpected fall indicates residential housing is struggling to gain momentum. Limited availability of credit and sluggish wage growth were the main cause for this setback, making it harder for potential buyers to close real estate deals. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has underlined the sluggish state of the housing market. Analysts believe, the housing market will not get better until a more substantial improvement will occur in the labor market and wage growth. Pending Home Sales are expected to rise 0.6%.
Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded in May at the fastest pace in four months rising 0.4% amid a surge in car production. The increase followed a 0.1% gain in April. Analysts expected a smaller rise of 0.3%. Canada registered the fifth consecutive monthly gain, indicating the economy is getting stronger. The central bank estimates a 2.5% gain in the April-to-June period. Manufacturing increased 0.8%, led by a 13% climb in motor vehicle production. Wholesalers registered a 1.2% gain in output in May, making the sector the second largest contributor of growth during the month. The expansion was visible across the board. The economy’s growth rate is expected to reach 0.3% now.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
09-02-2014, 05:35 PM
September 1-5

The euro was the big loser in a week that otherwise saw some profit taking on dollar longs. The first week of September is packed with top tier events as traders return from their vacations. Rate decisions in Australia, Canada, Japan, the UK, and most importantly the euro-zone, and US PMIs leading up to the all-important US NFP report; are the major events in our forex calendar. Check out these events on our weekly outlook.


It was yet another exciting week in markets, as currency action defied the summer heat. The echoes from Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech hit the euro with a gap, and it could never recover. Mediocre EZ data didn’t help. The US reported stronger growth than first estimated: 4.2% growth in Q2 (annualized). Nice consumer confidence and low jobless claims also helped the dollar. But as not all indicators were impressive, it allowed some currencies to recover: the Aussie showed resilience once again, and the loonie made a comeback. On the other hand, the yen suffered from unimpressive inflation data and the pound remained depressed.



Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Australia’s central bank maintained the cash rate at a record low of 2.5%, saying the nation’s economic outlook remains unclear. The slowdown in mining investment weighs on growth. Therefore, GDP expansion in the June quarter is expected to be weaker than in the previous quarter. Domestic demand is also subdued due to elevated currency. However, lenient monetary policy boosted the housing market. Global issues also contributed to uncertainty tensions in Ukraine and Gaza and the guessing game around the timing of the first rate increase in the US. No change in rats is expected now.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. The U.S. manufacturing sector improved strongly in July reaching 57.1 points following 55.3 points in June. Economists expected a reading of 56.1. US Manufacturing remained in expansion territory for 14 consecutive months. New orders advanced to 63.4, rising 4. points from June’s reading of 58.9. Production edged up to 61.2, from 60 and the employment soared to 58.2, up 5.4 points from June’s reading of 53. A slight drop to 57 is forecasted this time.
Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. Australia’s economy expanded 1.1% in the first quarter beating expectations for a 0.9% growth rate. The high rise was explained by the unexpected growth to the mining, financial and insurance services and the construction boom. The rate of expansion in the last 12 months to March reached 3.5% indicating the economy is resilient. The RBA projects a growth rate of 2.75% for this year and a rise of 2.5% for 2015. Australia’s economy is predicted to expand 0.4% in the second quarter.
Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. Canada’s central bank maintained its overnight rate target at 1% as it had been since September 2010. The Bank of Canada said global economic growth was subdued until April Monetary Policy Report, but is expected to pick up in the following months. In light of the lukewarm global outlook, Canada’s GDP is expected to be weaker than previously expected. However, the softer Canadian dollar and forecast for increases in global demand, are expected to expand exports leading to higher growth rate. Real GDP growth in Canada was expected to average around 2 ¼ % in 2014-16. Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
Rate decision in Japan: Thursday. The Bank of Japan kept its record stimulus measures to increase the monetary base at an annual pace of 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen, after weak releases of production and export data. Exports weakened in June as well as retail sales. Japan’s economy shrank at an annual pace of 6.8% in the second quarter due to by a sales tax hike introduced in April and GDP contracted 1.7% from the first quarter.
Rate decision in the UK: Thursday, 11:00. Bank of England policymakers decided to leave interest rates at 0.5% in their August meeting, however, for the first time in three years, two members unexpectedly voted to tighten policy and raise interest rates to 0.75%. The BoE lowered its forecasts for wage growth for 2014 saying it did not want to raise rates until stronger wage rises occur despite a decline in the unemployment rate which may lead to wage growth. Most of the MPC members said the inflation outlook was too weak to justify a rate hike despite a positive growth rate forecast in 2014.No change is expected now.
Rate decision in the Eurozone: Thursday 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Mario Draghi dropped the bomb in Jackson Hole, by acknowledging that low inflation is not only temporary, and that inflation expectations are falling. This raises expectations for action in September’s meeting. However, Draghi is likely to look for a wider consensus, especially from his German colleagues. In addition, the TLTROs come into effect this month, and this could lead the governing council to wait. The not too horrible inflation numbers are also a reason to wait now. Nevertheless, we can expect heavier hints about QE and more pressure to keep the euro down, if not even lower. Some also expect another rate cut, but this is unlikely now. Draghi’s words are set to rock the markets.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 12:15. U.S. employers hired 218,000 workers in July, posting the fourth months of private job growth beyond 200,000. However July’s reading was lower than the 234,000 reading anticipated by analysts and considerable bellow June’s rise of 281,000. Economists believe the economy will return to full employment by late 2016 if the pace of growth continues. Jobs in professional and business services increased by 61,000 in July, down from 79,000 in June, while positions in the trade, transportation and utilities category grew by 52,000 versus 56,000 in June. An addition of 216,000 jobs is expected now.
US Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in June to its lowest level since January contracting to a seasonally adjusted $41.5 billion, from $44.7 billion in May. The improvement occurred due to a fall in imports, led by lower shipments of cellphones, petroleum, and cars. Exports climbed 0.1% to $195.9 billion, a record high. While imports fell 1.2%, the most in a year, to $237.4 billion. The unexpected drop implies that growth was stronger in the second quarter than initially estimated. Americans are buying more U.S. products, increasing economic expansion. The economy grew at a 4% annual rate in the second quarter, but this estimate included higher trade deficit than was eventually registered in June. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to reach 42.5.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits declined by 1,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 298,000, indicating fewer layoffs and strong hiring. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell to 299,750. Employers are more confident in the economy therefore reduce dismissals. Employers added an average of 230,000 jobs a month this year, above the average of 195,000 in 2013. Average job gains since February have been the best in eight years. The number of jobless claims is expected tro increase by 298,000 this week.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. Service sector activity in the U.S. soared in July to 58.7 from a reading of 56.0 in June, rising at the fastest rate in more than three years. The reading was better than the 56.6 estimated by analysts, suggesting a growth trend in the US economy and a positive outlook for the coming months. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index climbed to 62.4, from 57.5 posted in June, The New Orders Index registered 64.9, from 61.2 registered in June. The Employment Index edged up 1.6 points to 56 from the June reading of 54.4 and indicates growth for the fifth consecutive month. Service sector activity is expected to decline to 57.3.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canadian job market rebounded in July with a 42,000 job increase, following a 10,000 decline in the previous month. The reading nearly doubled estimates for a 25,400 job addition. July’s labor market figures were distorted by an “isolated incident” due to “human error” at Statistics Canada. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined to 7% in July, from 7.1% reading in the previous month. Canada’s workforce is expected to expand by 10,300 positions while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 7%.
US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate: Friday, 12:30. US nonfarm payrolls edged up 209,000 in July after an upwardly revised increase of 298K in June. The reading was worse than the 231,000 rise projected by analysts. However job growth remained above 200,000 in the last six months. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% from 6.1% a month earlier, due to an increase in the labor force. US nonfarm payrolls is expected to gain 222,000 jobs while the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.1%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
09-08-2014, 07:46 PM
September 8-12

The US dollar had another strong week in currency markets, bowing only to the Aussie, as the euro and the pound were hit hard. Can we expect a correction or continuation now? US retail sales and consumer sentiment, Australian employment data and a rate decision in New Zealand are among the major events on our calendar for this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers coming our way.


The star of the week was Mario Draghi: the ECB surprised with further rate cuts and also announced a significant ABS program. This sent EUR/USD down over 200 pips to long uptrend support, a move unseen in a long time. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed with a gain of only 142K, breaking a winning streak, but this was shrugged off by the mighty dollar. The US economy has seen strong signs of late. In the UK, fears of a Yes vote in the Scottish referendum joined the greenback’s strength to send cable down. Strong Australian GDP, among other events kept the Aussie resilient once again. Some hopes for peace in Ukraine were unhelpful for the yen, that reached a multi-year low against the dollar. Will the action continue?




US JOLTS Job Openings: Wednesday, 14:00. The measure of job openings is watched closely by the Federal Reserve for longer term employment trends, despite the fact that it is lagging: we now get the figure for July, not for August like the NFP. A rise from 4.67 seen in June to 4.72 is expected now.
New Zealand Rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official Cash Rate to 3.5% in July from 3.25% in the previous month. This was the fourth hike in five months amid a growth trend in the economy. The rise was in line with market forecast but economists believe this was the last rise in this hike series, after which the Bank will assess the tightening measures impact on the economy. The Reserve Bank has previously announced another rate hike of 1.25% by the end of 2014 and 2015 reaching a ‘neutral’ level of 4.5%. The bank said the economy was expected to expand at an annual pace of 3.7% in 2014. No changes are forecasted this time.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s unemployment rate soared to a 12-year high of 6.4% in July from 6.0% in the previous month while economists expected the rate to remain at 6.0%. The economy contracted 300 jobs following a 15,900 job addition in June. Full-time positions increased by 14,500 while part-time roles declined 14,800. The participation rate, increased by 0.1% to 64.8%. Economists believe this decline is only a temporary glitch reflecting the volatility of month-to-month data. Australia’s job market is expected to gain 15,200 jobs while the Unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.3%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of jobless claims increased by 4,000 last week to 302,000, a bit higher than the 300,000 expected by analysts. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged up 3,000 last week to 302,750. The level of continuing claims declined by 64,000 from the previous week and the level of unadjusted continuing claims fell by 95,339 to 2,306,286. Overall, the level of claims last week was well below the 4,388,758 posted a year ago. Jobless claims are expected to increase by 306,000.
Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Friday, 6:05. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. He may talk about the central bank’s intentions to raise the sales tax again in order to narrow government deficit. Kuroda remained optimistic about pulling out of deflation and reaching the 2% inflation target. BOJ Governor is also positive that Japan’s economy will continue to expand in the months ahead.
US Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly halted in July, remained unchanged from June, suggesting some loss of momentum in the economy at the beginning of the third quarter. However gob growth continued to be positive, indicating sales activity is bound to strengthen in the coming months. The main fall occurred in the automobile sector declining 0.2% after a 0.3% fall. Meanwhile, core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services inched up 0.1% in July. Retail sales are predicted to increase 0.3% while core sales are expected to gain 0.2%.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. According to the first read, American consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in August to a nine-month low of 79.2 points from 81.8 points in July, missing predictions for a reading of 82.7. However, this was later revised to the upside, with the final figure set at 82.5 points, more in line with the strong CB Consumer Confidence. American consumer confidence is expected to pick-up to 83.2 this time.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
09-14-2014, 11:19 PM
September 15-19

The dollar was king once again, but some currencies such as the euro fared better than the commodity currencies. The Fed decision and the Scottish Independence Vote stand out as the key events in a week that also consists of other important releases, and promises to be very interesting. Check out these events on our weekly outlook.

While the euro managed to stabilize after Draghi’s drag, other currencies began or continued retreating against the dollar. The pound suffered a big weekend gap that showed the race on Scotland is too close to call, but then recovered quite nicely. Commodity currencies were hit hard: USD/CAD topped 1.10 and AUD/USD reached the 0.90 handle, despite unbelievably strong employment figures.The kiwi remained in its misery. But also the yen continued free falling, with USD/JPY reaching deeper into levels last seen in 2008. Is 110 in sight?
Updates:


Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Tuesday, 5:30. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will press conference in Osaka. Market volatility is expected, especially if he offers comments about the recent fall in the value of the yen or the weak GDP.
UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Annual inflation rate dropped more than expected in July, reaching 1.6% from 1.9% in June, lowering the chance of an interest rate rise in 2014. Economists expected a smaller decline to 1.8%. The main cause for the sharp fall was price reduction in summer clothing. Inflation was held below the BOE’s 2% target for the seventh consecutive month, indicating the UK economy is stabilizing. However, cost of living and income tax are still too high compared to wage growth. Annual inflation is expected to reach 1.5% in August.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German economic sentiment plunged in August to 8.6 from 27.1 in July. The 18.5 fall brought sentiment to its lowest level since December 2012. Analysts expected a more modest decline to 18.2 points. The Current Conditions Index dropped to 44.3 from 61.8 in July, missing predictions for a decline to 55.5. The ongoing geopolitical tensions are the main reason for the sharp decline. Economic climate is expected to decline further to 5.2.
US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices inched marginally in July rising 0.1%, in line with market forecast, following a 0.4% gain in the previous month. The slow advance resulted from a decline in the cost of energy goods, lowering prices of finished goods. Despite the volatility in the PPI series, a trend of inflation is gathering pace, easing the Central Bank’s concerns. The government introduced three new indexes to the PPI series focusing on personal consumption. Personal consumption less food and energy rose 0.2% in July after a 0.3% gain in June. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.2% after a similar rise in June. Producer prices are predicted to gain 0.1% in August.
UK employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the U.K. contracted more-than-expected in July, declining a seasonally adjusted 33,600, after a 39,500 fall in the previous month, lowering the unemployment level to 6.4% in the three months to June. Economists expected a smaller decline of 29,700. Meanwhile, the average earnings index fell 0.2% in the three months to June after a 0.4% gain in the three months to May. The number of job seekers is expected to decline by 29,700 in August.
US inflation data: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices inched 0.1% in July, in line with market forecast, following a 0.3% rise in June. On a yearly base, consumer prices gained 2.0%, compared to June’s increase of 2.1%. Excluding the volatile food and energy costs, July core consumer prices gained 0.1% after posting the same gain in June. On an annual basis, core CPI rose 1.9%, unchanged from June. Economists expect core CPI to rise above the 2% target next year, prompting the Fed to raise rates in March. U.S. consumer prices is expected to grow by 0.1% whiel Core CPI is predicted to gain 0.2%.
Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30.. The Fed is expected to taper its bond buys for the 7th time to $15 billion, in the last taper before QE end in October. Some are expecting Yellen and her colleagues to alter the statement regarding the interest rates, removing the word “considerable” from the expected time frame. However, given the recent unexciting job data, there is a better chance that no change in tone will be seen. The economic forecasts could be upgraded and the general message could be somewhat more upbeat, but Yellen might want to keep the hints about the rates to another opportunity. This is a key event for the dollar. Every word in the statement and every word in the press conference will be scrutinized, and the full impact might take time be seen. A surprising removal of the word “considerable” will have a considerable positive effect on USD, while no change in the statement will shift the focus to the general tone and view of the economy by Chair Yellen.
New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. New Zealand economy expanded 1.0% in the first quarter following a revised 1.0% in the last quarter of 2013. Construction sector was the main contributor to expansion, rising 12.5%, the largest since March 2000. Retail trade edged up 1.4% and 4.4% on a yearly base. Mining rose 6.3% in the first quarter. Household spending remained unchanged, despite the 7.3% gain in real gross national disposable income, the largest ever annual rise. Exports increased 3.1% for the quarter driven by an 18.6% rise in agriculture and fishing products.
Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 7:30. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is now “celebrating” three years to the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20, and there are no signs this will change anytime soon. The Swiss economy is still experiencing deflation. The bottom low interest rate is expected to remain unchanged, yet some speculate that the SNB might take a page from the ECB’s book and opt for a negative deposit rate. This would weigh on the franc and keep it away from the floor.
US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. US building permits surged 15.7% in July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.09-million units. The rise came after two consecutive declines. Economists expected starts to rise to a 969,000-unit rate. The housing market softened after the rise in interest rates. The government reported last month that the homeownership rate hit a 19-year low in the second quarter, while the rental vacancy rate was the lowest in more than 19 years. The number of Building permits is expected to reach 1.04 million units this time.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans seeking U.S. unemployment benefits increased by 11,000 last week to 315,000. However, the four-week average inched up only 750 to 304,000. The average remained 7.1% lower than last year. Unemployment benefits data can be volatile around holidays and could explain the 11,000 rise. Overall, the Us labor market continues to strengthen with a clear growth trend. Jobless claims are expected to grow by 312,000 this week.
Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 12:45. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC. She may talk about the US labor market and the prospects of a rate hike following the taper period. Market volatility is expected and she will have the chance to clarify anything that she says in the previous day.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Business conditions in the Philadelphia area improved in August surging to 28 from 23.9 in July. This was the third consecutive rise and posting the highest reading since March 2011. Economists expected a more modest rise to 19.7 points. However despite the less encouraging new orders index, the general tone is positive. Business conditions in the Philadelphia area are expected to decline to 22.8.
Scottish Independence Vote: Thursday. In September 18, Scottish voters will decide whether to split from the United Kingdom or stay as one country with England, Wales and Northern Ireland. A YouGov poll conducted for The Sunday Times and released on Sunday showed the “yes” vote at 51% and “no” at 49% and that certainly hurt the pound, while a more updated poll already showed a 4% lead. There are many other polls that impact sterling. Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond has been a vocal proponent of independence. British Prime Minister David Cameron wants Scotland to remain part of an undivided United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Uncertainty over the outcome of the Scottish referendum weakened the pound. It’s important to note that the odds lean to a No vote, but nothing is priced in. So, a No vote would send the pound significantly higher, yet a Yes vote would be devastating for the pound, and it could test the 2010 levels.



That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
09-22-2014, 10:02 AM
September 22-26

The dollar had another positive week, advancing against most currencies on the background of the the FOMC meeting. The upcoming week features Mario Draghi’s speech, German Ifo Business Climate, US New Home Sales, US Durable Goods Orders, among other events. Here is an outlook on the major events coming our way.

The FOMC left its language regarding interest rates unchanged, but did present guidelines for an exit strategy and released forecasts showing higher rates in 2015. This eventually gave a boost to the dollar. Scotland voted NO on independence from the UK in the historic referendum. The NO campaign’s victory was more decisive than the opinion polls had suggested, leaving the 307-year union in place. The pound surged in the run up to the results but eventually sold the fact. In the euro-zone, the first installment of the targeted loans (TLTROs) had a poor reception. Does this imply more ECB action? The Japanese yen suffered from a downgrade in the economic assessment and the Aussie was unable to enjoy Chinese stimulus, and eventually lost ground.
Updates:

Updates:

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G20 Meetings: Sat-Sun. Finance ministers from the G20 countries gathered in Australia to discuss measures to improve economic growth in the Eurozone by an additional two per cent by 2018. Measures to fight black money and tax avoidance were also discussed in this forum. Last week’s meeting resolutions will initiate the next meeting at Brisbane in November.
Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 13:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to testify before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee, in Brussels. Draghi may talk about the need for investments alongside governmental aid. Volatility is expected, especially if he touches the hot topics such as ABS and QE, which now seems more probable after the poor first TLTRO.
Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:45. The world’s No. 2 is in the spotlight after disappointing industrial output data. This independent forward looking measure stood on 50.2 points in August, reflecting negligible growth. The preliminary figure for September is predicted to stand at 50 – the line separating growth from contraction.
German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. German business sentiment declined for a fourth straight month in August down to 106.3 from 108 in July, amid concerns about the Ukraine crisis and the impact of sanctions imposed by the Eurozone against Russia. The value of German shipments to Russia plunged 15.5% to 15.3 billion euros in the first six months of the year, with major declines in car and machinery shipments. Exports also fell due to smaller orders from Russia. Economists expected a higher reading of 107.1. The lukewarm growth in the Euro area also contributed to the decline in German business sentiment. Another drop to 105.9 is expected now.
US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Sales of new single-family homes declined for a second straight month in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 412,000, from 422,000 posted in the previous month. Nevertheless, the housing market is on a growth trend. Larger stock of properties and tame prices will help boost demand in the coming months. New homes sales data is considered volatile, despite the decline new home sales were up 12.3 from July last year. Sales of new single-family homes is expected to rise to 432,000.
US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. durable goods orders surged in July by a seasonally adjusted 22.6%, after a revised gain of 2.7% in the previous month while core orders declined unexpectedly by 0.7% following a 1.9% increase in June. The mixed data confused markets. Commercial aircraft orders hit the roof with a 318% increase, after Boeing signed a record number of contracts for new jetliners in July. Cars and trucks sales went up 10.2%. However, core durable goods orders, excluding volatile transportation items, missing forecasts for a 0.5% gain. Core durable goods orders rose by 3% in June. U.S. durable goods orders is expected to plunge 17.7% while Core orders are predicted to rise 0.7%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits plunged unexpectedly last week to 280,000 from 316,000 in the prior week, indicating the lukewarm figures in August were a temporary relapse. Economists expected a small decline to 312,000. US economy has broad-based growth including the housing sector. The number of layoffs continue to fall. The four-week moving average declined by 4,750 to 299,500. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 294,000 this week.
Final US GDP: Friday, 12:30. According to the second release, the US economy grew at a fast clip of 4.2% (annualized) in Q2. This number now carries expectations for another upward revision to 4.6%. This more than compensates for a contraction of 2.1% in Q1.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
10-06-2014, 11:46 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook October 6-10
The US dollar did experience a correction, but this did not last too long and it eventually ended the first week of Q4 with gains across the board. Rate decisions in Japan and the UK, employment data in Australia and Canada and the FOMC Meeting Minutes are the major market movers on FX calendar week. Here is an outlook on the top events coming our way.


The excellent US Non-Farm Payrolls report was convincing enough to erase the bad impression from August and end the dollar correction: the US gained 248K and revisions added another 69K. This eventually sent the greenback to new highs against quite a few currencies, such as GBP/USD, which lost 1.60. Beforehand, a streak of unconvincing US figures finally took its toll on the greenback. In the euro-zone, Mario Draghi made his best effort not to rock the boat, and the euro had a temporary sigh of relief. In Japan, the authorities seem to have too much of yen weakness, at least when USD/JPY hit 110. AUD/USD formed a double bottom but bounced back very nicely before hitting the lowest since 2010. The kiwi suffered from a on two punch from the government and the central bank, and recovered some of its losses. Let’s start:

Updates:


Japan rate decision: Monday. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its monetary policy on its last meeting in September despite signs of weaker growth. The central bank kept its pledge to increase base money by 60-70 trillion yen, mostly in Japanese government bonds. It was suggested to turn the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target a medium-to-long-term goal was denied by an 8-1 vote. The BOJ expects the moderate recovery will continue since domestic demand remains strong. Inflation is improving but is still way behind the 2% inflation target, projected to reach this goal in 2016, rather than next year.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA kept the cash rate on hold for the thirteenth consecutive month in line with market forecast, amid positive financial conditions. Inflation remains within the Central Bank’s 2-3 per cent target. Volatility in many financial prices remains low. These positive signs suggest the next rate hike will occur only in mid-2015. The number of loan applications in the housing market grew rapidly with a 40% rise in the number of loans for new properties and a 15% increase in construction loans.
US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. This measure of jobs is closely watched by the Fed, thus giving it a stronger impact despite the lag in data: this report refers to August rather than the recent NFP that refers to September. After 4.67 million in July, a small rise to 4.71 is expected for August.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In the last meeting, the Fed tapered for the 7th and last time. In that meeting, the board also decided to leave the “considerable time” wording intact, but there were quite a few shifts to the hawkish side, including the dot chart and the guidelines for an exit strategy. With two people dissenting from the decision to the hawkish side, we can certainly expect the meeting minutes to show a more hawkish picture than Chair Yellen portrayed in her press confernece.
Australian employment data: Wednesday, 0:30. Australia’s unemployment rate declined to 6.1% in August from a 12-year high of 6.4% in July. This unexpected decline occurred due to a large addition of 121,000 jobs that month after a 4,000 contraction in July. Economists expected the unemployment rate to decline to 6.3 with a job addition of 15,200. The Reserve Bank governor, Glenn Stevens, noted unemployment is still high, but a rate cut is not expected on the coming months. The economy is expected to add 29,600 new jobs while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.2%.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England has left UK interest rates at a record low of 0.5% in September, leaving the Bank’s economic stimulus program at £375 billion. Interest rates were unchanged for five years but are expected to rise early next year due to a growth trend in the UK economy. Nevertheless, Bank governor Mark Carney has stated that any rate rises would be small and gradual. Economists believe a rate hike will hurt households and businesses since wage growth is slow.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for U.S. unemployment benefits declined by 8,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 287,000, pushing down the total number of beneficiaries to the lowest level in more than eight years. The four-week average fell 4,250 to 294,750. The upward trend in economic activity means fewer layoffs as employers expect continued economic growth. Based off the four-week average for jobless claims, monthly job growth should be close 250,000. The number of new claims is expected to rise to 291,000.
Mario Draghi speaks: Thursday, 15:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at the Brookings Institution, in Washington DC. He may discuss the recently declared ECB bond buying program and his goal to stimulate bank to lend more to European companies and consumers.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian job market contracted by 11,000 positions in August following a 41,700 addition in July, but the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7%. Economists expected a job growth of 10,000. Declines were registered both full-time and part-time positions. The number of private sector employees decreased in August, while self-employment rose. The Canadian job market is expected to shed 11,000 jobs this time, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 7%.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
10-14-2014, 02:40 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook October 13-17
The US dollar took a hit, finally correcting its gains, but it didn’t fall too far. UK inflation data, Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen’s speeches, US Retail sales are the major events on our calendar for this week. Here is an outlook on the main market movers coming our way.


Despite continuous positive US data, the FOMC minutes defied expectations for a possible rate hike in the near future, sending the dollar down. The minutes revealed a debate on the necessary normalization period, which the hawks considered too long. Fed minutes also showed that some policymakers feared a stronger dollar will generate downward pressure on inflation and that global economic growth is on a downward trend. Will the dollar continue to decline? In Europe, German numbers were certainly weak, but that didn’t hurt the euro as much as Draghi’s repeat of his commitment to battle low inflation and his words about a rate hike not coming before 2017. Comments about the yen kept the Japanese currency bid and the Aussie recovered despite wobbles in its employment data. Canada enjoyed strong job growth.



UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. The annual inflation rate in the UK declined from 1.6% to 1.5% in August, amid lower prices of petrol, food and non-alcoholics drinks. Meanwhile, core inflation, excluding food, alcohol, tobacco and energy, edged up1.9%. However the low inflation bides well with consumer’s purchasing power due to a slow wage growth. UK inflation is expected to decline to 1.4% this time.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German investor confidence declined to a 21 month low of 6.9 in September following a 8.6 reading in August amid stronger political tensions in Europe. Analysts expected an even lower figure of 5.2. This was the lowest reading since December 2012. German economy slowed down in the third quarter which may weaken growth in the second half of the year. German investor confidence s expected to plunge to 0.2.
UK Employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. U.K. unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in six years, indicating continued strength in the labor market. Likewise, U.K. jobless claims dropped 37,200, far better than the 30,000 decline estimated by economists. That pushed the total below 1 million for the first time since September 2008. The number of workers rose by 74,000 to 30.6 million. Despite the slow growth in wages, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is confident that job market growth will eventually boost salaries. U.K. jobless claims are expected to decline further by 34,200 now.
Mario Draghi speaks: Wednesday, 7:00, 18:00. Back to the ECB HQ in Frankfurt, Draghi is scheduled to make two speeches in two separate events. At this point we will already have the industrial output number for the euro-zone (it was poor for Germany) as well as some news from the meeting of the financial chiefs. Draghi moves the markets even if he doesn’t say anything new.
US retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales gained 0.6% in August amid a buying spree of automobiles and a range of other goods. Economists expected a 0.3% increase as in July. Meanwhile core sales expanded 0.3% exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise. Consumer sentiment also soared, hitting a 14-month high in September. However lack of real wage growth may weigh on retail sales in the future but the third quarter looks promising. Retail sales are expected to decline by 0.1% , while core sales are predicted to rise 0.2%.
US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. Wholesale prices in the U.S. remained changed in August from the previous month, held back by a plunge in energy costs as well as indicating low inflation in the production pipeline. In the last 12 months, wholesale prices increased 1.8%. The PPI excluding food and energy inched 0.1% from the prior month. Producer prices are predicted to gain 0.1% this time.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, reducing the average number of applications to the lowest level in eight years reaching 287,750. Applications declined 1,000 to 287,000 last week, suggesting employers keep their workers, expecting continued economic growth including expansion in hiring. The number of people receiving benefits has also fallen steadily to just 2.38 million in the week ended Sept. 27. Jobless claims are expected to reach 286,000 this week.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area declined in September to 22.5 from 28 in August which was the highest since March 2011. Economists expected a slightly higher reading of 22.8. Despite the fall in September, the survey reflects continued growth in the region’s manufacturing sector as many indicators for future manufacturing conditions reflect general optimism about growth in activity and employment over the next six months. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area is anticipated to decline further to 19.9.
US Building Permits: Friday, 12:30. The number of permits issued for privately-owned housing units reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 998,000 in August following the revised July rate of 1,057,000. Economists expected a total of 1,040,000. Single-family permits in August reached 626,000, 0.8% below the revised July figure of 631,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 343,000 in August. The number of permits is expected to grow to 1.04 million.
Janet Yellen speaks: Friday, 12:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak in Boston. Yellen may shed more light on the FOMC minutes released last week and the gloomy growth outlook despite positive US economic data. Market volatility is expected.
US Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. The September reading of University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment soared to 84.6, the highest since July 2013, following 82.5 in the final August reading. Despite consumers’ fears of a slowdown in employment growth, anticipations were high on wage expansion. Consumer expectations jumped to 75.6 from the 71.3 reading last month and above a forecast of 73.0. Consumer sentiment s expected to reach 84.3 this time.

* All times are GMT.

Samirofi
10-27-2014, 08:30 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook October 27-31
Currencies were mixed in the past week, with the greenback gaining against the euro and the yen, while sliding against the the Aussie and the loonie. The Fed decision is the highlight of the week, alongside Yellen’s speech, GDP in the US and Canada and two additional rate decision. These are a few of the events on our calendar for this week. Follow along as we explore the Forex market movers.


US data looked quite solid in the past week, with inflation and housing both edging above expectations. Also jobless claims kept up, and there is a growing sense that QE is going to end as planned, defying Bullard’s words in the previous week. In the euro-zone, optimism comes from German data but not from France, and the ECB has also corporate bonds on its agenda. The UK has seen disappointing retail sales and no rush to raise interest rates. Chinese GDP came out above expectations and supported the Aussie, but CPI took it away. The kiwi suffered more from its own CPI, while the loonie got a boost from a mildly more hawkish BOC, in the background of the Ottawa shooting. Where are currencies headed next? Let’s start:





US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. US durable goods orders plunged in August due to volatility in aircraft orders. Orders dropped 18.2% after a strong rise of 22.6% in July. However the overall growth trend remained strong. Meantime, Core orders excluding transportation advanced by 0.7% in August after a 0.8% decline in the previous month. Core orders reflect the true trend, rising 17.2% in the three months to August. The rise in orders is also reflected by the constant improvement in the US job market with fewer layoffs and increase hiring. Durable goods orders are projected to gain 0.4% , while Core durable goods orders are expected to increase by 0.5%.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence worsened in September, falling to 86 from 93.4 in the prior month. Economists expected a milder decline to 92.2. The strong decline may be explained by less favorable assessments of the current job market condition. Consumers expected economic growth to stall in the following months ahead. The outlook index declined to 83.7 from a revised 93.1 reading, while the present conditions index fell to 89.4 from a revised 93.9.
US FOMC Statement: Wednesday, 18:00. The Fed is expected to remove the doubts and end QE as planned. However, the “considerable time” guidance regarding low rates is expected to stay in the statement. Bullard surprised markets by suggesting that QE could continue. However, there are reasons to believe that QE will end: FOMC doves support the end of QE, all employment data (NFP, JOLTS, jobless claims) look great and inflation is OK. In addition, changing course on a stock market slide could erode the Fed’s credibility. The genuine worries about global growth is likely to result in leaving the “considerable time” phrase. This is likely to change when the global outlook improves, and when the decision is accompanied by a press conference.
NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate at 3.5%. Governor Graeme Wheeler stated he won’t rush to raise rates as previously thought, since inflation remains contained. Wheeler also signaled a pause in the bank’s current tightening measures, indicating the bank needs to measure the impact of the four rate hikes this year. The policy statement projects slower inflation by the end of 2015. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%.
US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. The third estimate of real gross domestic product release for the second quarter showed an annual rate expansion of 4.6%, following the previous estimate of 4.2%. The 4.6% growth in real GDP showed growing personal consumption, private inventory investment, exports, as well as local government spending. The gains were partially offset by a rise in imports, and a 0.9% decline in federal government expenditures. Personal consumption increased but the main growth force was fixed business investments expanding 9.7%. The BEA expected second quarter corporate profits increased $164.1 billion, compared to a $201.7 billion decrease in the first quarter. 3.1%. An annual growth rate of 3.1% is expected for Q3.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 last week to 283,000. Despite the rise, the number of claims remained below 300,000 for a sixth straight week, indicating the US job market continues to strengthen in spite of a global slowdown trend. The four-week moving average fell to its lowest level since May 2000. However, the slowdown trend in major countries is starting to impact the US manufacturing sector. The number of jobless claims is expected to decline to 277,000 this time.
Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 13:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC. Yellen may address the rate hike issue amid continued U.S. economic growth and strengthening in the US labor market. Likewise the Fed Chair may discuss the global slowdown trend which may affect the US economy in the coming months.
Japan rate decision: Friday. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged at its October meeting. The Bank also unanimously decided to prolong its money market operations to raise the monetary base to an annual pace of between JPY 60 and 70 trillion and reach a 2.0% inflation rate. The central bank was more pessimistic regarding economic conditions, despite stating that the economy is continuing to recover moderately as a trend. Regarding global developments, the BOJ sees a downside risk in the pace of recovery in the US and the unclear state of the Eurozone economy.
Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s economy did now grow in July, from the previous month due to a slowdown in the mining, and oil and gas industries offset by a rise in manufacturing and the public sector. Mining, oil and gas industries contracted by 1.5% in July. Manufacturing expanded by 1% and the public sector by 0.5%. Economists expected a minor growth of 0.2%. This sluggish growth suggests the BOC will be on no hurry to raise rates anytime soon.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
11-24-2014, 04:04 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook November 24-28 The dollar strengthened quite nicely, with the exception of the loonie, as the US economy and the Fed remain firmly on track. Euro-zone inflation data, US, UK and Canadian GDP data, US Durable Goods Orders, and housing data are the most important economic releases in the last week of the month. Here is an outlook on the highlights coming our way.


The FOMC Meeting Minutes release showed that while the Fed is concerned with low inflation expectations and was united around leaving the “considerable time” phrase regarding rates unchanged, global economic issues such as the weakening in Europe, China and Japan are seen to have a limited impact on the US. Most indicators in the US were quite upbeat: inflation firmed more than expected, and so did existing home sales, building permits and the Philly Fed Index. Japan unexpectedly fell into a recession after contracting in Q3, and the country is going to the polls in December. The yen reached new lows. In the euro-zone, Draghi maintained the dovish tone and mentioned outright QE. His comments weighed on the euro, as did weak PMIs. The pound received good news from stronger than expected inflation and retail sales, as well as a more hawkish stance from the BOE. Inflation was also upbeat in Canada, and the Aussie got a boost from a rate cut in China but still remained down on the week. What’s next for currencies?




German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German business sentiment declined for the sixth month in October, reaching 103.2 after September’s reading of 104.7. Economists expected a smaller decline to 104.6. Growth in the third quarter was worse than expected with a predicted gain of 0.3%. The survey revealed a drop in current conditions to 108.4 from 110.5 in September and the outlook gauge declined to 98.3 from 99.2. Analysts predict business climate will reach 103 in November.
Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Tuesday, 0:00, 4:45. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Nagoya and in Tokyo. Kuroda warned inflation could fall below 1% the disappointing GDP release in November showing the economy slid into recession. BOE Governor started to implement the unprecedented asset purchases decided in the last policy meeting, despite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to delay a sales-tax increase. Kuroda may provide clues on further easing measures to boost inflation towards the 2% target.
US GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. The first release of US GDP showed an annualized growth rate of 3.5%, which was above expectations. While it came on top of a gain in government spending, it sill showed that the economy is growing at an above-average rate. Economists expect GDP to be revised down to 3.3%.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 13:30. U.S. consumer confidence jumped up strongly in October, hitting a seven-year high of 94.5 from 89 in the previous month amid a further improvement in the Job market raising expectations for higher economic growth. In light of falling gas prices and better job figures, consumer spending is expected to rise in the coming months. U.S. consumer sentiment is predicted to rise to 95.9 this month.
UK GDP data: Wednesday, 9:30. According to the initial release, the pace of quarterly growth slowed down to 0.7% in Q3, after reaching 0.9% in Q2. Economists expect the Ukraine crisis will have negative bearings on the manufacturing sector due to a reduction in foreign demand. However once tensions ease, business confidence and investment will rebound across Europe, and the UK will return to full growth. The third quarter growth rate is expected to be confirmed in the second release at 0.7%.
US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Orders for long lasting goods fell unexpectedly by 1.3% in September, while expected to gain 0.4%. Excluding transportation orders, durable goods orders declined 0.2% and fell 1.5% excluding defense orders. Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September fell 5.4%, while defense new orders for capital goods rose 7.4%. However, the general trend is positive showing a stronger market demand, while aircraft orders tend to be less trustworthy. Analysts expect a decline of 0.4% in Durable Goods Orders and a 0.5% gain in core orders.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to 291,000 from 293,000 in the week before. Economists expected a sharper decline to 286,000. The reading continues to suggest an ongoing improvement in the US labor market. The four-week moving average, a more stable gauge, increased 1,750 to 287,500, still showing job growth. Economists forecast 287,000 new claim this week.
US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes reached a six-year high in September, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 467,000. Economists expected an even higher reading of 473,000. August’s reading was sharply revised for the worse to 466,000, indicating the housing recovery remains uncertain. The housing market regained momentum after stalling in the second half of 2013 when mortgage rates soared. Mortgage rates have declined hand in hand with the contraction in the U.S. Treasury debt yields, but slow wage growth weighs on the pace of recovery. Analysts expect new home sales to reach 471,000.
Euro-zone inflation data: Friday, 10:00. Inflation in the euro-zone is very low and has remained at low levels for a long time, triggering quite a lot of action from the ECB. The preliminary numbers for November are expected to show a drop in headline inflation, from 0.4% to 0.3%, partly due to the fall in oil prices. Core inflation is predicted to remain at 0.7% for another week in a row.
Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economy contracted unexpectedly 0.1% in August, declining for the first time in eight months, amid a decline in energy and manufacturing activity. Economists expected a flat reading as in the previous month. The disappointing figure suggests pickup has stalled in the third quarter. Manufacturing output fell 1.2%, reversing the 1.2% gain in the prior month. Service industries gained 0.2% for the month, with wholesale trade gaining 0.5% and the finance and real estate sectors both rising 0.3% in August. Retail activity, however, declined 0.1% and transportation and warehouses dropped 0.3%. Economists forecast a 0.4% gain in September.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
12-01-2014, 06:32 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook December 1-5
The euro emerged as the winner of an interesting week that closed the month of November. The first week of the last month is certainly busy. US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Rate decisions in Australia, the UK and the Eurozone, Important employment events in Canada and the US including the important NFP release. These are Forex Market Movers This Week. Check out these events on our weekly outlook.


US data showed mixed results. Durable goods orders advanced unexpectedly 0.4% but missed on the core, posting 0.9% decline. Jobless claims disappointed crossing the 300,000 line for the first time in nearly three months with a 21,000 jump to 313,000. New Home Sales rose for the third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000 units but missed forecast for a higher gain of 471,000 units. Nevertheless, the second GDP release came out better than the first estimate, showing a 3.9% growth rate in the third quarter reflecting upward revisions to business and consumer spending, as well as to inventories. Due to the flood of US economic data released at once before Thanksgiving, volatility tends to be higher. Will the US data continue to show resilience? Let’s start:




US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. US manufacturing PMI came in at 59.0 in October following 56.6 in the prior month. The release was higher than the 56.5 forecasted, contradicting the US manufacturing PMI from Markit Economics report showing manufacturing activity slowed to its lowest since July. Economists expect manufacturing PMI will reach 57.9 this time.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. Australia’s central bank kept the cash rate at 2.5% in November, noting that rates will remain unchanged in the coming months and that currency remains overvalued. Governor Glenn Stevens has seeks to stimulate domestic growth drivers to boost economic growth. The RBA’s The growth outlook was less optimistic than in the previous report, but with diminished worries about the housing market. No change in rates is forecast.
Australia GDP: Wednesday, 0:30. The Australian economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in the second quarter after 1.1% growth registered in the first quarter. The release was better than the 0.4% rise forecasted by analysts. On an annual basis, GDP grew 3.1%, lower than the 3.4% recorded in Q1. Exports fell 0.9% compared to a 4.2% gain in the first quarter, while imports edged up to a 3.7% expansion from a 1.2% decline in the first quarter. Economists expect an annual growth of 3.0% in 2014, and a 2.8% gain in 2015. The third quarter GDP is predicted to be 0.7%.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. The US labor market continued to strengthen in October, registering a pick-up of 230,000 in private sector hiring, after a 225,000 gain in the previous month. However the third quarter slowdown is expected to continue towards the end of 2014 which could badly affect the job market. A gain of 223,000 jobs is expected in November.
Canadian rate decision: Wednesday: 15:00. Stephen Poloz head of the BOC decided to maintain borrowing costs due to sluggish growth of global economy. Poloz noted that rates could go up or down, depending on economic headwinds from the global economy. However, most economists expect the next rate move will be up, and that it will likely come by mid-2015. Overnight rate is expected to remain unchanged.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday: 15:00. US service-sector growth slowed in October to 57.1 from 58.6 in September. The index has been declining since July reaching its slowest pace of growth in 6 months. Nevertheless, the index is above 50 indicating growth. New business expanded in October, a good sign for economic growth. Employment remained strong, but business outlook was more pessimistic. US service-sector is expected to reach 57.5.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. Bank of England voting members decided to keep interest rates at 0.5% in November. The stimulus program remained unchanged at £375 billion. Economists expected a rate hike in November, after Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England noted the decision surrounding the timing of the first rate hike was “becoming more balanced” and “could happen sooner than markets expect”. The Official Bank Rate is predicted to remain unchanged this time.
Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. Mr. Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, promised in October that more aggressive measures are being prepared, in the form of the large-scale bond purchases known as quantitative easing to boost growth in the Eurozone. The same promise was delivered in November with no substantial measures. Many economists expected real action in the form of the US QE. Even the Bank of Japan started its own QE program. Even though the Euro area economy is not in deflation, prices are falling constantly damaging companies’ revenues and raising unemployment. Real measures are expected on the December meeting.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday: 13:30. The number of Americans seeking U.S. unemployment benefits edged up to 313,000 last week, crossing the 300,000 line for the first time in nearly three months. The 21,000 jump beat forecasts for a 287,000 reading. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 6,250 to 294,000. This sudden rise does not suggest a downturn trend, but is probably related to seasonal layoffs in sectors affected by the cold weather, such as construction. Economists expect US weekly unemployment claims to reach 297K
Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s job market unexpectedly increased by 43,100 positions in October, pushing unemployment rate down to a nearly six-year low of 6.5%. Analysts expected a contraction of 5,000 jobs following September’s gain of 74,100 positions. The jobless rate, declined from 6.8% in September, to the lowest since November 2008, suggesting the labor market is regaining strength. The labor participation rate, stayed at 66%, the lowest since November 2001. Full-time jobs increased by 26,500, while part-time positions increased by 16,500. Canada’s job market is expected to add 5,300 jobs while the unemployment rate is predicted to reach 6.6%.
US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. The US job market gained fewer than expected positions in October adding 214,000, but the Unemployment rate declined to its lowest level since 2008 reaching 5.8%. However, despite the forecast of 235,000 job addition, October’s gain is still considered positive. Wage growth remained sluggish, as wages increased 0.1% month-on-month, missing expectations for growth of 0.2%. Year-over-year, wages grew 2%, below expectations for a 2.1% gain. US job gain in November is expected to be 225,000, while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 5.8%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
12-08-2014, 05:13 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Dec. 8-12
The US dollar had another excellent week, reaching new highs against many currencies. Can this continue or will we see a pause? Rate decisions in New Zealand and in Switzerland, US retail sales and consumer sentiment and the ECB’s TLTRO are among the major events for this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights coming our way.


Non-Farm Payrolls posted a superb job gain of 321,000 in November. The release also showed a 0.4% rise in wages. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%. This was the biggest jobs gain since January 2012, far above average of 224,000 a month over the past year. This excellent release demonstrates that the ongoing improvement in the job market cannot go unnoticed. In the euro-zone, the ECB refrained from announcing QE in the last meeting for the year, but subsequent reports about the imminence of the move means more pressure on the euro. The Aussie suffered a disappointing GDP report and is now expected to cut rates in 2015. Canada’s loss of jobs didn’t help the loonie. USD/JPY remained unstoppable and left dust behind the round level of 120. Let’s start:




Japan GDP: Sunday, 23:50. Just as the trading week begins, Japan will update its GDP report for Q3. The first release came out at -0.4%, and this means that the country suffers from a recession. This is one of the reasons for scrapping the sales tax hike and for calling the elections. An upgrade to a slide of only 0.1% is expected now. A surprising positive figure would erase the recession. The yen is likely to move sharply in the wake of the new week.
NZ Rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. New Zealand’s central bank maintained its Cash rate in September at 3.50%, implying they will keep monetary policy on hold until the end of next year, contrasting the U.S. Federal Reserve plans of raising rates. Low inflation and slowing global growth were the reasons behind the decision to keep rates unchanged. Rates are expected to remain unchanged.
Australian Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s job market added 24,100 jobs in October. Full-time positions expanded by 33,400 while part-time roles declined by 9,400. The jobless rate remained unchanged at a 12-year high of 6.2%, suggesting a weaker labor market amid the economy’s transition from mining-driven growth. The participation rate edged up to a seasonally adjusted 64.6% compared to 64.5% in the previous month. These figures indicate a modest improvement and a positive trend. Australia is expected to gain 15,200 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate is predicted to reach 6.3%.
Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 8:30. The Swiss National Bank kept its Libor rate at the minimum low of 0.0% to 0.25%, in line with market prediction. SNB policymakers also issued updated forecasts for growth and inflation revealing a moderate pickup in the coming months. The Central Bank expects GDP growth to reach 2% in 2015. Inflation is expected to reach 2% in 2014 and only 0.6% in 2015. The 3 year+ floor of 1.20 under EUR/CHF, which is not too far from the current price, is widely expected to be maintained.
Euro-zone TLTRO results: Thursday, 10:15. The ECB reports the results of the second tranche of targeted loans: loans that are directed to the real economy. The first tranche disappointed with only €82.6 billion. A bigger take up is expected now, but as long as it remains under €200 billion, the pressure to deliver QE is likely to continue. This is a key release for the euro.
US retail sales: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. consumers increased their spending in October, reaching $444.5 billion, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rising 0.3% compared to September’s decline of 0.3%. Economists expected a smaller rise of 0.2%. Consumers were more optimistic and made more purchases. October’s core sales, excluding autos, edged up 0.3% from a 0.2% decline in September. Analysts predicted a 0.2% gain in October. Falling gasoline prices helped to increase domestic expenditures leading to stronger holiday sales. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.3% in November while core sales are predicted to rise 0.1 %.
US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell back below the 300,000 line last week, indicating continued growth in the labor market. He reading was broadly in line with market forecast. The four-week average increased by 4750 to 299,000 still near post-recession low. However, the sharp decline could be attributed to Thanksgiving holiday. The number of new unemployment claims is expected to be 299,000 this time.
US PPI: Friday, 13:30. The producer price index gained 0.2% in October amid a pickup in inflation. Prices for many products increased despite a decline in wholesale gas costs. Automakers contributed to inflation by introducing 2015 car models. Beef prices jumped 6% and pork prices surged 8.1%. Meanwhile, core PPI excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, increased 0.4%. However, the rise in PPI does not reflect a trend, since the ongoing declines in fuel prices boost sales boosting inflation. The producer price index is predicted to fall 0.1% in November.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. U.S. consumer sentiment edged up in November to a more than seven-year high of 88.8 points, compared to 86.9 posted in September. Economists predicted a reading of 87.3. The ongoing growth in the employment market and the sharp drop in gasoline prices, boosted sentiment. Current economic conditions increased to 103.0 from 98.3 beating forecast of 98.8. Consumer expectations increased to 80.6 from 79.6, exceeding the 80.2 forecast. However, expectations for income gains remained low despite rising and came in below inflation forecasts. One-year inflation expectation declined to 2.6% from 2.9%, while its five-year inflation outlook was also at 2.6%. U.S. consumer sentiment is expected to improve further to 89.6 this time.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
12-22-2014, 10:45 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook December 22-26
The US dollar enjoyed wide gains in the last full week before the holidays. Will the ride continue also on thin liquidity? GDP data from Canada and the US, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and unemployment claims are the major topics in Forex calendar. heck out these events on our weekly outlook.


Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen switched the phrase “considerable time” with the word “patience” in referral to rate hikes. The move was made to calm markets fearing sharp policy shifts. However, she did sound hawkish at the press conference, being actually pleased with the fall in oil prices, content about the labor market and talking about rate hikes in 2015. In Europe, another comment from the ECB strengthened the notion that EZ QE is coming in January. The Australian dollar suffered once again and the yen resumed its falls, alongside all the others.




Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded 0.4% in September after higher oil, gas and mining extraction, as well as manufacturing boosted growth. October’s reading was preceded by a 0.1% contraction in August. Since Canada is a major oil exporter, the Bank of Canada estimates that the slide in oil prices will reduce Canadian economic growth by 1/3 percentage points, somewhere between 2% and 2.5% in 2015. Poloz is also worried by household imbalances risking financial stability, leaving the door open for additional guidance in the future. Markets expect Canadian GDP to rise 0.1% in October.
US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. U.S. durable goods orders picked up in October beating expectations for a 0.4% fall. New orders rose by 0.4%, reaching $243.8 billion. Meanwhile, demand for manufactured goods, excluding transportation dropped 0.9% to $167.6 billion in October, after a 0.1% rise in the prior month. Analysts believe the decline suggests that business capital spending is weakening in Q4.The Fed expects GDP to slow to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Long lasting product orders are expected to surge by 3%. While core orders are predicted to 3edge up 1.1%.
US GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. On The second estimate of real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2014 showed an annual rate increase of 3.9%, weaker than the 4.6% gain posted in the second quarter. However, this forecast was upwardly revised from the advance estimate of 3.5% released in October. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed income investment increased more than expected, but export growth was slower than previously thought. The final GDP release for the third quarter is expected to reach 4.3%.
New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. homes rose modestly in October, following a pickup in activity in the Midwest. New home sales increased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000. Economists expected a higher figure of 471,000. Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million, adding another positive sign that the housing market is recovering. Analysts exdpect new home sales to reach 461,000 in November.
US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, indicating increasing confidence among employers. The weekly unemployment claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, the lowest level since late October. The four-week average dropped 750 to 298,750. In the first 11 months of this year, employers have added 2.65 million jobs, posting the best hiring since 1999. The number of new claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 3:45. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated the bank will meet its 2% inflation target and continue to increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the bank, at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($674 billion). Kuroda said Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately after the tax hike effect subsides.

Markets are set to grind to a halt on December 24th, Christmas Eve, remain completely closed on Christmas, the 25th and hardly see any activity on the 26th (Boxing Day).
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
01-05-2015, 07:06 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook January 5-9
The dollar opened 2015 with a storm, especially against the beaten euro. And now, trading activity returns to full swing with: a buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, the FOMC meeting minutes and lots more. These are the main economic releases for this week. Let’s see, in detail, the market movers to impact Forex trading.


Just before 2014 ended, US jobless claims disappointed with a 17,000 rise in the number of new claims, reaching 298,000. However, Consumer confidence, released earlier, rebounded to 92.6 following 91 points in November, indicating consumers are more confident at year-end than they were at the beginning of the year. The ISM manufacturing PMI was weak, but we had a silver lining from the employment component. In the euro-zone, drama came from Greece, where the country is preparing for elections amid uncertainty about the bailout and signs of QE are mounting. This sent EUR/USD to 1.20. The dollar gained against other currencies and stood out against the C$, which also suffered another fall in oil prices. Let’s start:

Updates:


Jan 5, 15:01: Grexit Worries Wallop Euro: The first full trading week of 2015 has started off with a bang, as volatility takes center stage in currency...
Jan 5, 11:29: EURUSD falls: The overnight session in Asia has driven the euro even lower with EURUSD taking out 1.2000 as the majority of...
Jan 5, 8:58: Gold looks ready to go higher from here – Technical update: The big picture in Gold hasn’t changed much over the past month. For approximately nine weeks now Gold has been...
Jan 5, 8:50: 2015 Preview for currencies & commodities: the Fed hike, EZ QE, slippery oil, UK politics, Big in Japan, AUD down under, Loonie blues and Gold – Market Movers #31: An exciting 2014 has ended and we have a packed show previewing the currencies and commodities in 2015: when will the Fed...
Jan 5, 8:11: Forex: 2015 will be year of US interest rate rise tantrums: The scene looks set for the US Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates in 2015 – a shift in...
Jan 5, 0:00: Despite Its Sharp Rally, The USD Is Still Cheap – Standard Chartered: Yes, the dollar ran higher and higher, but it probably is not enough. And it is not only a euro...



US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday. 15:00. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rebounded in November after two straight months of declines. The Index increased to 59.3 beating forecasts of 57.5. 14 industries out of the 18 surveyed reported expansion. Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 58.2 in December.
US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 13:15. The U.S. private sector added 208,000 workers in November following 230,000 jobs gain in the previous month, indicating the slowdown in global economy does not impact US domestic activity. The ongoing improvement in the labor market leads to faster wage growth. A Labor Department report showed compensation per hour increased 1.3% in the third quarter rather than the 2.3% reported in the previous month, and declined 0.9% instead of the expected 2.3% rise. ADP job gain is expected to reach 227,000 in December.
US Trade Balance: Wednesday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit contracted less than expected in October reaching $43.03 billion. Lower crude oil prices had limited impact. Imports jumped 0.9%, reaching $241 billion, while exports increased 1.2% to $197.5 billion, indicating the economy was is resistant to the slowdown in global demand. Economists forecast a deficit of $41.3 billion. Exports to the European Union increased 8.5 percent, while China saw a 36 percent jump in the value of goods it imported from the United States. Exports to Japan rose 4.0 percent, while those to Canada and Mexico – the main U.S. trading partners – reached record highs. Sustained dollar strength, however, is expected to undercut export growth in the months ahead. Imports from China hit an all-time high, leaving the politically sensitive trade gap at $32.6 billion. U.S. trade deficit is predicted to narrow to 42.3.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. In the December FOMC meeting, the Fed removed the “considerable time” message regarding rates, but balanced it with its observations and a more moderate “dot chart”. The dollar then got a boost by Yellen, that sounded optimistic about the economy, talked about raising rates in 2015 and did not fear the fall in oil prices. We will now see some of the internal debate around that meeting. Will we see a dovish minutes to counter the bullish tone? Or could it just serve as another dollar driver?
UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at a record low of 0.50% amid weak inflation threatening economic growth. Policy makers also voted to maintain cash stimulus at £375 billion. Britain’s 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate increased to 1.3% in October from a five-year low of 1.2 percent in September, but remained far below the BoE’s government goal of 2.0%. No change in rates is expected this time.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filings initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. increased last week by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000, beating market forecast. This was the highest figure since November 22 topping analysts’ predictions for a 287,000 reading. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, climbed to 290,750. The number of claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s job market had a temporary setback in November, contracting 10,700 jobs which nudged the unemployment rate slightly to 6.6%. However, despite the disappointing release, the general trend is positive showing a 146,000 job increase in the last 12 months. The majority of job addition in the last few months are in full time employment. Canadian economy is expected to expand in 2015 particularly if the US economy continues to strengthen. Canada’s job market is expected to add 10,300 positions while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.6%.
US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate: Friday, 13:30. The US labor expected more than expected in November, surging by 321,000 jobs after adding 243,000 on October. This was the biggest jump in employment since January 2012, reaching a12 month average of 224,000. Economists expected a gain of 231,000 positions, however wage growth was still rather weak. The unemployment rate for November was 5.8%, unchanged from October’s reading in line with market forecast. The report also said that the labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.8%. Us labor market is forecast to expand by 241,000 while the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.7%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
01-13-2015, 01:57 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook January 12-16 The dollar had a mixed performance in the first full week of 2015. Inflation data in the UK and the US, US retail sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Consumer sentiment are the main events on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.


The NFP report was better than expected showing a job gain of 252K in December. The solid increase that came with upwards revisions and a drop of the unemployment rate to a 6-1/2 year low of 5.6%. However, average hourly earnings dipped 0.2% in December. Could the lack of wage growth deter the Fed from hiking? The euro-zone is officially in deflation and there are more reports of a €500 billion QE program in the pipeline. The pound continued its slide and so did the loonie, which suffered from a weak jobs report. The Aussie managed to escape the double bottom abyss thanks to strong Australian data and also the yen enjoyed a solid performance. Let’s start:




UK inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. UK consumer prices plunged to a twelve year low of 1% in November, reaching half the BoE’s inflation target. The reading was worse than expected caused by a sharp and continuous decline in oil prices. However the low oil prices were positive for consumers, boosting spending and supporting UK growth. The Bank’s monetary policy committee said in its November inflation is likely to fall below 1% in early 2015. UK consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.7%.
US retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30. U.S. consumer spending edged up in November amid the holiday shopping season, boosted further by lower gasoline prices. Meanwhile, retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services rose 0.6% after an unrevised 0.5% gain in October. Economists expected core sales to rise a mere 0.1% last month. The shopping spree accelerated growth in the fourth quarter. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.2%, while Core sales are predicted to increase by 0.1%.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s unemployment edged up to 6.3% in November as more people looked for jobs. Economic activity weakened by sluggish Chinese demand. However the Australian job market added 42,700 positions in November, much better than the 13,700 increase posted in the prior month and the 15,000 addition forecasted by analysts. This rise suggests improvement in the Australian labor market. Policymakers are preparing for further easing measures in case the weakness in the job market and domestic demand continues. Economists expect job growth to increase by 5,300 while the Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.3%.
US PPI: Thursday, 13:30. Producer Price Index fell 0.2% in November prompted by lower oil prices, following a 0.2% gain in the prior month. Analysts expected a smaller decline of 0.1%. On an unadjusted basis, producer prices increased 1.4% for the 12 months ended November, the slowest 12-month increase since February 2014. Core producer prices, excluding food and energy remained unchanged after a 0.4% rise in November. Producer Price Index is expected to drop 0.3% this time.
US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number initial claims for unemployment benefits declined last week by 4,000 to 294,000 amid a sharp decrease in dismissals. Strong consumer spending had a positive effect on the labor market, despite a weakening in global economy. The four-week moving average a more solid measure of labor market trends, remained below the 300,000 mark for the 17th straight week. Jobless claims is expected to reach 299,000 this week.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 15:00. Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region plunged to 24.5 in December from 40.8 in the previous month, indicating slower activity. New orders fell to 15.7 from 35.7. Employment conditions weakened to 7.2, down from 22.4 marking the lowest level since April. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is predicted to reach 20.3 this time.
US Inflation data: Friday, 13:30. U.S. consumer prices registered their biggest decline in nearly six years in November amid a slide in gasoline prices. Consumer Price Index plunged 0.3%, following flat reading in October. On a yearly base CPI increased 1.3% the smallest gain in nine months, after posting a 1.7% rise in October. While inflation declines, the US job market continues to strengthen including a big gain in weekly earnings. Meanwhile, Core CPI excluding food and energy prices gained 0.1% following a 0.2% rise in the previous month. The rise suggests oil prices are the main cause for the sharp declines. Analysts expect consumer prices to dip 0.3% while Core prices are expected to increase 0.1%.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:55. U.S. consumer sentiment surged in December to a near eight-year high amid improved earnings and better job prospects. Consumer sentiment edged up to 93.8 from 88.8 in November. The survey’s one-year inflation expectation rose to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent, while its five-year inflation outlook also rose to 2.9 percent from 2.6 percent last month. Economists expect consumer sentiment to rise further to 94.2 this time.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
02-02-2015, 08:53 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 2-6 The dollar experienced a mixed week, in which its gains were focused against commodity currencies. The focus is on the US with a full buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, but also rate decisions stand out. These are forex market movers for this week. Check out these events on our weekly outlook


US jobless claims plunged 43,000 to a 15 year low indicating the labor market strides in the right direction. Economists expected claims to tick down to 301,000. Earlier that week, the Fed held its monthly monetary policy meeting, repeated the “patience” wording regarding a possible rate hike. However the policy makers were more concerned about international developments and their possible effect on US future growth. The Fed also stated that the labor market has improved further and household spending rose moderately, boosted by low energy prices. Will the US economy continue to improve? Let’s start,




US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. Manufacturing PMI declined in December, coming in at 55.5 following 58.7 in the previous month. Economists forecasted a higher reading of 57.6. Manufacturing output is constantly expanding; however, the rate of growth has eased in the fourth quarter. Companies express growing uncertainty about the outlook in 2015, especially regarding exports. Regarding the fall in oil prices, some ISM members think it would have a good impact on the manufacturing sector while others disagree. Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 54.9 this time.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. Australia’s central bank has kept its interest rate at a record low for 17 months amid the economic transition from mining investment. Many economists believe a rate cut is in order since the economic growth has not picked up to offset the sharp decline in mining investment. Low interest rates may boost investments in the non-mining sectors. In addition. Falling commodity prices like iron and oil will weaken export revenues. No change in rate is expected now.
NZ employment data: Tuesday, 21:45. New Zealand’s Unemployment rate was better than expected in the third quarter, falling to 5.4% from 5.6 in the prior quarter. Employment expanded 0.8%, higher than the 0.5% gain reached in the second quarter and better than the 0.6% rise forecasted by analysts. However, on a yearly base, employment expanded 3.2%, below the 3.7% seen in the previous quarter. New Zealand’s employment market is predicted to grow by 0.8, while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.3%.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. U.S. private sector employment gained 241,000 jobs in December, beating forecasts of a 227,000 job addition. The increase was broad based and was not affected by oil-related companies that experienced a dramatic fall in crude prices, suggesting the US labor market is resilient and does not depend on any one industry. U.S. private employment is expected to gain 221,000 this time.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. Service sector activity expanded at the slowest pace in six months, reaching 56.2 in December, after posting 59.3 in November. Economists expected a reading of 58.2. New Orders Index was 2.5 points lower than 61.4 registered in November. Employment Index declined 0.7 points, reaching 56.0 and Prices Index plunged 4.9 points to 49.5. Service sector is forecasted to grow to 56.6.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England policymakers voted unanimously to leave rates at s record-low in January amid tumbling inflation. Both Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, formerly opposing such a move, had a change of heart as falling oil prices threatened to weaken further the already subdued inflation. The ongoing improvement in the unemployment rate and wage growth didn’t persuade MPC members to vote for a change in policy. Following this statement, economists pushed back their forecast for a rate hike to early 2016.
US Trade Balance: Thursday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit contracted in November to an 11-month low reaching $39 billion, the smallest since December 2013. Falling crude oil prices helped to strengthen domestic demand, but exports fell 1.0% to $196.4 billion in November, suggesting the slowing global economy may start to affect the US market. Economists expected deficit to reach $42.3 billion. U.S. trade deficit is expected to contact further to$38 billion.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment dropped sharply to a 15 year low, indicating the US labor market continues to strengthen. However, the unbelievably low figure can be also attributed to a holiday-shortened week. The 43,000decline was much better than the 301,000 addition forecasted by analysts. The four-week moving average, fell 8,250 last week to 298,500. The number of claims is expected to reach 277,000 this time.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s labor market had another mild setback in December, shedding 4,300 positions after contracting 10,700 jobs in November. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.6%. Full-time employment in December grew by 53,500 jobs, while part-time work dropped by 57,700 indicating the overall picture is quite positive. The 12-month gain was 185,700 positions, an increase of 1.0% , while the six-month moving average for employment growth was 22,100 jobs, up from 21,300 in November.Canada’s labor market is expected to increase by 5,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to reach 6.7%.
US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. U.S. job growth edged up in December, rising 252,000 after a revised jump of 353,000 in November. Meanwhile, the jobless rate declined to a 6.5 year low of 5.6%. However, despite the positive figures, wages did not increase in December a worrisome sign which may compel the Fed to leave rates unchanged for an extended period. Us job market is expected to add 231,000 positions. The unemplolyment rate is forecsted to remain unchanged.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
02-09-2015, 06:29 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook February 9-13 The greenback was on the back foot throughout most of the first week of February, before staging a partial comeback. We now have Australian employment data, the BOE Inflation Report, US retail sales, consumer sentiment as the major market movers for this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights coming our way.


After some underwhelming figures from the US, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations with a 257,000 jobs gain in January, with revisions adding another 147K. Full-time positions edged up 777,000, reaching more than 120 million for the first time since July 2008. A much needed comeback in wages was also seen, with +0.5% m/m. This enabled the greenback to end the week on a strong note. In the euro-zone, some good figures were overshadowed by a worsening of the Greek crisis. Talks are set to continue as the deadlines loom. Elsewhere, the RBA went through with a rate cut and oil staged a nice recovery, supporting the battered Canadian dollar. Also the pound enjoyed a comeback, buoyed by strong PMIs.




Glenn Stevens speaks: Monday, 0:15. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak in Sydney. Australia’s central bank cut its cash rate to a minimum low of 2.25% after 18 months of static rates. Stevens may elaborate on the reasons behind the unexpected rate cut and talk about deflationary pressures and the impact of foreign markets on RBA’s recent policy decision.
EU meeting on Greece: Wednesday. The EU has called an extraordinary meeting on February 11th and the only topic on the agenda is Greece. This follows a European tour of Greek FM Yanis Varoufakis, that ended in an acrimonious tone with his German counterpart. On the same day, the waiver of Greek bonds expires at the ECB. Any headlines coming from the meeting are set to rock the euro, especially those from the German representatives
Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s job market expanded in December, adding 37,400 jobs, well above the 5,300 increase forecasted by analysts. The big job gain lowered the unemployment rate from 6.2% to 6.1%. The increase in positions showed a solid rise in full-time jobs compared to a slight fall in part-time jobs. Furthermore, participation rate increased to 64.8% in December from 64.7% in the prior month, indicating the economy is expanding. Australia’s labor market is expected to contract by 4,700 jobs, while the unemployment rate is predicted to climb to 6.2%.
Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 10:30. The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney is expected to speak in London about the Inflation report. Carney has launched a strong attack on austerity measures in the Eurozone, claiming such measures are too harsh to enable recovery and may lead the 18-nation single currency area deeper into a debt. He noted that low inflation in the euro-area is potentially dangerous to growth and calls for a real course of action to escape the debt trap.
UK inflation data: Thursday, 10:30. The Bank of England noted in its November inflation report that the economy is expanding more slowly and price pressures declined from the previous three months. The slower growth was caused by sluggish expansion in global economies and weaker growth forecast. The Central bank noted the slowdown in the housing market and the low commodity prices weighing on CPI inflation.
US retail sales: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. retail sales plunged 0.9% in December, posting their largest decline in 11 months after positive growth in the fourth quarter. The sharp fall may be attributed to seasonal adjustments after the holiday spending spree. Economists forecasted a 0.2% gain. However lower gasoline prices are expected to boost consumer spending in the coming months. Meanwhile, Core sales excluding automobiles dropped 1.0% following a 0.5% gain in the previous month and lower than the 0.1% increase predicted by analysts. Retail sales are expected to decline 0.3%, while core sales are predicted to drop 0.4%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims rose less than expected last week, reaching 278,000 following 267,000 in the previous week. Analysts expected a larger gain of 287,000. Claims were volatile in recent months due to seasonal changes, but remained positive. The four-week moving average fell 6,500 to 292,750 last week. jobless claims is expected to reach 279,000 this week.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. Consumer sentiment spiked in January to 98.2, exceeding economists’ forecast of 94.2, rising 4.4 points higher than in December. Lower gasoline prices as well as the ongoing improvement in the labor market boosted spending and raising consumer sentiment to an 11-year high. The economy is in solid growth at the beginning of 2015 and is expected to continue this positive trend. Consumer sentiment is expected to remain at 98.2 this time.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
03-09-2015, 03:39 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 9-13
The US dollar had an excellent week, soaring across the board, most notably against the plunging euro. A rate decision in New Zealand, Employment figures from Australia and Canada, Retail sales, PPI, Unemployment claims and Consumer sentiment from the US are the top events on FX calendar. Let’s see, in detail, the main market movers for this week.


Yet another robust reading from the US job market. The all-important NFP release showed a strong gain of 295,000 positions in February while and the jobless rate fell to a 6.5 year low of 5.5%. The disappointment came from slow wage growth. This raises the chances of a rate hike in June. This boosted the dollar across the board. In the euro-zone, Draghi showed determination on implementing QE, and the euro plunged. The pound followed suit. Elsewhere, an upbeat BOC helped CAD, while no cut from the RBA kept AUD bid. All was lost when the NFP numbers came in.

Updates:


Mar 9, 10:27: Euro continues to struggle: The single currency starts the week scraping itself from the floor after last week’s concerted push lower. The break below...



NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. New Zealand’s central bank decided to keep its benchmark Official Cash Rate at 3.5%. The decision was in line with market forecast, however, the RBNZ maintained a tightening policy bias due to weaker than expected growth but stated that future rate adjustments will depend on economic data. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler also voiced his concerns about the unjustified strength of the kiwi and its downside risks to exports. Economists expect the RBNZ will maintain rates this time.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australian labor market contracted by 12,200 positions in January pushing the unemployment rate to its highest level in 13 years reaching 6.4%. Both readings were worse than expected. Analysts forecasted a job loss of 4,700, expecting only a minor rise of 0.1% in the unemployment rate. Full-time employment fell by 28,100 in January and part-time employment was up 15,900. Australian labor market is expected to expand by15,300 while the unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 6.4%.
US Retail sales: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. Retail sales slipped 0.8% in January as consumer spending decreased, suggesting the economy started the first quarter on a weaker note. Despite cheap gasoline prices, sales did not pick-up. Economists speculate that consumers were using the extra income to reduce debt and boost savings. Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services plunged 0.9% following a 1.0% slide in the previous month. Retail sales is expected to gain 0.5%, while Core sales are expected to rise 0.6%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. More Americans filled applications for unemployment benefits last week as the long winter stalled further progress in US labor market. Jobless claims edged up 7,000 to 320,000, the highest since May 2014. Analysts expected a lower figure of 293,000. However, the rise in the number of applications does not affect the positive trend in the job market. The four-week average of claims increased to 304,750 from 294,500 the week before. The number of claims is expected to reach 317,000 this week.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian labor market was boosted by a part-time jobs gain in January, adding 35,400 new positions, well above the 4,700 increase forecasted by analysts. However the report was disappointing since 11,800 full-time positions were lost and the better than expected 6.6% unemployment rate was due to part time job gains. Analysts expect Canadian job figures to decline in the coming months as part-time workers are struggling to find full-time employment and the falling oil prices will also have a negative effect on the labor market. Canadian job market is expected to add 21,300 while the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.5%.
US PPI : Friday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices plunged 0.8%, recording their biggest decline in more than five years due to the ongoing erosion in energy prices. Economists expected a smaller fall of 0.4%. Core prices excluding food, energy, and trade also fell 0.1% after a 0.3% gain in December. Producer prices are predicted to rise 0.2%.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. Consumer confidence dropped in February to 93.6 after seven months of gains due to a rise in gasoline prices shifting Americans’ optimism about the economy. The preliminary sentiment index declined to 93.6 from the final January reading of 98.1 the highest since 2004. Economists expected a further rise in sentiment to 98.2. Energy an oil related workers were more concerned about their jobs in case of a fall in production. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 95.6.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
03-16-2015, 09:20 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 16-20
The dollar stormed the board, with the euro and the pound standing out as the biggest losers. The Fed decision is the key event in a week that also features rate decision in Japan and Switzerland, employment data from the UK and the US and many more. These are the major events on FX calendar. Join us as we check on the highlights of this week.


The US job market demonstrated renewed strength with a 36,000 fall in the number of jobless claims, reaching 289,000. However, retail sales disappointed, dropping 0.6% in February as harsh weather reduced sales and affected growth in the first quarter. Also consumer confidence slipped. Will the US economy shake off winter slowdown? For the US dollar it did not really matter. EUR/USD reached levels last seen over 12 years ago, with parity seeming closer and also the previously strong pound gave in. The Aussie was supported by jobs data, the kiwi by an upbeat central bank and the loonie was hit by oil. Let’s start,

Updates:


Mar 16, 13:48: ‘Patient’ Fed in Focus: As the new trading week kicks off, price action across various asset classes suggests financial markets are tucking in for...
Mar 16, 12:05: How To Prepare For A Less ‘Patient’ Fed? – BNPP: The US dollar enjoyed a nice rally against many currencies in anticipation of Fed tightening. We will probably get a change...
Mar 16, 11:29: Markets await Fed’s decision: All eyes on the Fed this week as the market becomes more and more focused on whether the word “patience”...



Mario Draghi Speaks: Monday, 18:45.ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt. He may talk to the ECB’s new QE plan aimed to spur growth in the euro member countries by injecting 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) into the economy. Market volatility is expected. In his previous speech, Draghi hurt the euro: he reiterated that reaching the stronger growth forecasts depends on implementation of current programs.
Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted to maintain its monetary policy in its February meeting and continue implementing its plan to increase monetary base to an annual pace of JPY 80 trillion. This step will help ensure the Central Bank’s inflation target of 2.0%. The BOJ noted the economy continued its moderate recovery with a pickup in exports. Consumer spending also remained strong due to rising employment and better wages. Inflation expectations remain positive despite the decline in oil prices. Rates are expected to remain unchanged this time.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German analyst and investor sentiment jumped in February its highest level in a year, reaching 53, following 48.4 in January boosted by the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program. However, the Greek debt problem and the Ukraine crisis weighed on the economic outlook. Economists expected a higher leap to 55. The German government forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2015. Sentiment among German analysts and investors is forecasted to improve to 58.9 in March.
US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. Building Permits weakened further in January reaching 1.053 million, dropping 0.7% form the rate of 1.07 posted in December. Economists expected a rise to 1.08 million. Other housing figures were also disappointing such as a 2% decline in housing starts and low homebuilder sentiment. Housing recovery remains slow and prices outpace wage growth. The number of permits is expected to grow to1.07 million.
UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. Britain’s labor market continued to improve in January with a bigger than expected decline in the number of jobless applications. The number of unemployed declined by 38,600 in January after a 35,800 drop in December, indicating job creation is rising. Economists expected a smaller decline of 25,200 in January. According to the ILO measure, unemployment fell by 97,000 in the three months to December, lowering the unemployment rate to 5.7%. Another decline of 31,000 is expected in the number of jobless applications.
US rate decision: Wednesday, statement and forecasts at 18:00, press conference at 18:30. The Federal Reserve maintained their monetary policy in January, leaving the word “patience” regarding rate hikes intact. The Fed admitted that inflation weakened considerably due to the recent drop in oil prices. The members are watching for economic developments to see what happens. Job gains continue to grow and the unemployment rate has also declined closing in on its pre-recession level, however, wage growth remains subdued as companies continue to find an abundant supply of potential employees. Since then, Yellen testified in Capitol Hill and basically paved the road for removing forward guidance in this March meeting. This is now expected and could further lift the greenback. If the wording about patience remains unchanged, the dollar would plunge. It is also important to watch out for updated forecasts: they will probably show lower unemployment expectations but also lower inflation and perhaps the same growth numbers. In the press conference, reporters might try to extract more hints from Yellen regarding the rates and it will be interesting to see how she deflects the questions.
NZ GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. The New Zealand economy boosted growth in the third quarter expanding 1.0%, the strongest gain in 15 years. This impressive figure was preceded by a 0.7% expansion in the second quarter. Economists expected a growth rate of 0.7%. On a yearly base, growth remained unchanged from the second quarter reaching 3.2%. New Zealand is expected to expand by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 8:30. The Swiss National Bank rocked markets on January, while deciding to abandon its three-year-old currency cap of 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro, sending the currency high against the euro sending stocks down. Being an export reliant, 40% of which going to the euro zone endangered many Swiss companies. To balance the Swiss franc, the SNB cut its interest rate taking it further down into negative territory of -0.75% following -0.25% in the previous month. No change in rates is expected.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined more than expected last week, reaching 289,000. The 36,000 fall offers further evidence that the labor market is strengthening. Economists expected a higher figure of 306,000. The four-week moving average fell 3,750 to 302,250 last week. The NFP report showed a 295,000 job gain in February and a 6-1/2-year low of 5.5% unemployment rate. February marked the 12th straight month that employment gains have been above 200,000, the longest such run since 1994. The number of new claims for unemployment benefits is predicted to rise to 297,000 this week.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area fell to 5.2 in February, following 6.3 in January, while economists expected a rise to 8.8. However, despite the three months of decline, manufacturing activity still remains positive pointing to growth. The outlook showed 55% of companies were optimistic regarding future demand, while 20% reported a decline. Economists believe the Philly Fed is affected by seasonal adjustment factors in winter and in fall. Expecting a boost in the spring and summer seasons. Manufacturing activity is expected to7.3 in March.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
03-30-2015, 10:03 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook Mar 30-Apr 3


The US dollar managed to fight back and correct part of the correction. In the week that ends with Good Friday, we have a buildup towards the all important US Non-Farm Payrolls as well as Canadian GDP, US Consumer Confidence and more events. Join us as we explore the top events of this week.


The US labor market continued to improve with a decline in the number of jobless claims, reaching 282,000. Also inflation figures were OK and new home sales beat. However, the final GDP release for the fourth quarter of 2014 slightly disappointed remaining unchanged at 2.2%, below the 2.4% forecast and durable goods orders also fell short of predictions. In the euro-zone, we had upbeat data from Germany but that wasn’t enough for EUR/USD to settle over 1.10. In the UK, retail sales shined but inflation hit a round 0%, and cable is still looking for a direction. Japanese inflation also looks weak and could trigger action from the BOJ. The C$ was attentive to oil prices related to the crisis in Yemen, while the Aussie watched developments in China.

Updates:


Canada GDP: Tuesday: 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded 0.3% in December, exceeding analysts’ expectations for a 0.2% gain. The reading was preceded by a 0.2% contraction in November. On a yearly base, GDP edged up 2.5% in 2014. The annual growth rate in the fourth quarter reached 2.4%, below the 3.2% posted in the third quarter. Household spending continued to be the main force in the Canadian economy increasing consumption expenditure by 2.0% on an annualized basis. Exports of goods fell 2.5%, exports of crude oil declined 6.5% and exports of refined petroleum products slumped 36.3%. Economists forecast a 0.2%growth rate in January.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence declined more than expected in February reaching 96.4 from 103.8 in January. Economists expected a smaller drop to 99.6. Current declined to 110.2 from a revised 113.9 in January. Consumer outlook for the next six months dropped to 87.2 from a revised 97.0. Consumers were less optimistic about job prospects. However, despite the lower figures, the general level show positive trend. Consumer confidence is predicted to reach 96.6 in March.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The U.S. private sector gained 212,000 jobs in February following an upwardly revised reading of 250,000 in the previous month. The release was below expectations. The manufacturing and the services sectors improved the most. However, despite the weaker job gain, the private sector’s outlook remains bright. Analysts expect a 231,000 job gain in the US private sector for March.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The US manufacturing sector weakened in February, dropping 0.6 points to 52.9. The reading was worse than the 53.4 points forecasted by analysts, however, the reading remained above the 50 point line, indicating continued growth. New orders fell 0.4 points to 52.5 while factory activity dropped from 56.5 in January to 53.7. Manufacturing employment also slipped from 54.1 to 51.4. Manufacturing exports continued to contract in February to 48.5, while imports softened, from 55.5 to 54. US manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 52.5 this time.
US Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in January to $41.8 billion amid weakening in exports and imports. The 8.3% fall was broadly in line with market forecast. Imports contracted due to lower oil prices and labor strikes disrupting shipping of goods. Exports fell $5.6 million to $189.4 billion while imports dropped $9.4 billion to $231.1 billion. However, domestic production increased due to low oil prices and petroleum imports fell 23% to $17.7 billion. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to contract further to $41.5 billion.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined more than expected last week, reaching 282K after a 291,000 addition in the prior week. The 9,000 drop continues to suggest an ongoing improvement in the US job market despite the recent volatility due to the harsh weather, softer global demand and the strong dollar. The four-week moving average fell 7,750 to 297,000 last week. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 285,000 this week.
US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate: Friday, 12:30. U.S. job creation strengthened in February rising 295,000 and lowering jobless rate to a more than 6-1/2 year low of 5.5%. Job gain was stronger despite harsh weather conditions disrupting activity. The report supported the Fed’s rate hike move planned in June. Average hourly earnings edged up by three cents and further gains are expected. The employment to population ratio in the US labor market has been steady at a 5-1/2 year high of 59.3%. US private sector is expected to gain 251,000 positions while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
04-06-2015, 10:46 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook April 6-10
The US dollar had a rough week, making gains in Q1 but erasing them in the wake of Q2, especially towards the end. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, rate decision in Australia, Japan and the UK, FOMC Meeting Minutes, US unemployment claims, Canadian employment data are the major market movers on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.


Initial good figures and end-of-quarter adjustments helped the greenback. However, the US Non-Farm Payrolls missed expectations with a smaller than expected job addition of 126,000 in March, much worse than expected and coupled with downwards revisions. The rise in wages and the drop in the “real unemployment rate” didn’t compensate. While some blame the weather and say it is a one-off, others see the weak economy finally hitting jobs. In the euro-zone, the Greek issues still weigh, while politics also impact the pound. The fall in commodity prices hit the Aussie but the loonie was resilient in the face of the deal with Iran, which could hurt oil prices. What’s next after Easter? Let’s start,

Updates:


Apr 6, 16:00: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 56.5 as expected: No surprises in the headline services gauge: 56.5 points shows the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. This is bang on expectations and...
Apr 6, 14:50: Correction Fluid: It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a currency in possession of a strong performance record must be in want...
Apr 6, 9:36: Interview with FXStreet President Francesc Riverola on the industry, volatility and more – Market Movers #44: This week we feature an interview with Francesc Riverola, the founder and president of FXStreet - one of the largest...



US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. The US service sector expanded more than expected in February, rising to 56.9 from 56.5 in February. Economists expected a lower reading of 56.5 in February. The New Orders Index posted 56.7, 2.8 points less than January’s 59.5. The Employment Index edged up 4.8 points to 56.4 from 51.6 in January, rising for the 12th consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 4.2 points from the January reading of 45.5 to 49.7. The elevated figures indicate economic conditions are improving. US service sector PMI is expected to reach 56.6 this time.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Australia’s central bank maintained its cash rate despite calls for another rate cut. However, implied further easing measures may be introduced in the next policy meeting. The RBA preferred to assess the impact of February’s cut before lowering rates once again. Australian cash rate is predicted to remain at 2.25%, but a cut could also come on the background of falling commodity prices. This is a critical event.
Japan rate decision: Wednesday. The BOJ maintained its monetary policy in March and continue with its plan to raise monetary base to an annual pace of JPY 80 trillion reaching the Bank’s 2% inflation target. However Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan governor, admitted for the first time, he could not rule out deflation in the coming months, due to the oil price crush, but assured it won’t necessarily affect the underlying trend in inflation in the long term. The BoJ expects a gradual rise in demand will boost inflation forecasting price rises of 1% in the fiscal year ending in March 2016 and 2.2% for 2017. The BOJ is expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged, but pressure is mounting.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In the last meeting, the Fed removed the “patience” wording regarding interest rates and also left some dovish hints, especially with the dot plot. The latter showed slower rate hikes this year. We will now see what members were thinking. A dovish look will enhance the NFP impact, while a hawkish one could leave markets puzzled.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England kept its benchmark rate at 0.50% in its March meeting. BoE’s Governor Mark Carney, noted that the next move will be up despite current deflationary pressures. Low inflation may be a blessing in disguise for the UK economy, providing households with greater spending power, in times of sluggish wage growth. Furthermore, cheap imports are also positive for consumers boosting spending and economic growth. The BOE is expected to maintain rates at 0.50%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims filed for unemployment benefits in the US declined considerably last week to 268,000 from 286,000 in the week before. The 20,000 fall reasserts the positive trend in the US labor market. Analysts expected only a minor drop in the number of claims. The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits declined by 88,000 to 2.33 million. The number of claims is expected to reach 271,000 this week.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s job market showed signs of weakness amid the global oil slump. Job contraction occurs in crude-rich provinces affecting the overall unemployment rate. The labor market shed 1,000 jobs in February, increasing the jobless rate to 6.8% from 6.6% in January. Analysts expected a job loss of 3,500, but predicted a slower rise of 0.1% in the unemployment rate. The major decline in oil prices also lead the BOC’s decision to cut interest rates in January. Canadian job market is expected to rise by 0.1% while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 6.8%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
04-14-2015, 08:10 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 13-17
The US dollar managed to stage a recovery after the previous blows, especially against the majors. A busy week awaits traders with US inflation and consumer data as well as rate decisions in Canada and the euro-zone among other events. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.


US data began recovering and the dollar followed. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was OK and JOLTs beat expectations. But it was the meeting minutes that provided the greenback with the biggest push: they revealed that in March, some members talked about hiking in June. Despite the known fact about the existence of hawks and the timing of the meeting before the weak NFP, the greenback soared. It probably remains the cleanest shirt in the dirty pile. Elsewhere, Greek worries weighed on the euro, elections worries hurt the pound and the yen also slid. The Aussie stood out, enjoying yet another “no change” decision by the RBA.

Updates:


Apr 14, 15:15: Pocketbook Panic: Currency markets traded within a narrow range overnight, with participants waiting for the US data drop to determine the direction...
Apr 14, 14:30: US retail sales rise 0.9% – below expectations – USD slides: It’s almost OK in US springtime, but not good enough. The volume of retail sales rose by 0.9% in March...
Apr 14, 11:10: Greece nears default: After a quiet start to the week where the dollar just paused for breath, the single currency is coming under...
Apr 14, 9:42: More Losses Possible In USDCHF: The US dollar was seen weakening against the Swiss franc during the past session, as the USDCHF pair traded lower...
Apr 13, 12:13: USDown or greenback comeback? And more – Market Movers #45: What’s going on in America? Where is the dollar headed? That is the focus of our latest episode as the Easter...
Apr 13, 12:12: USD: They Think It’s All Over…Far From It – BNPP: The greenback made a comeback of sorts. Is this just a correction or has the long term dollar trend have room to...
Apr 13, 11:00: Markets await UK unemployment data: The economic calendar is very quiet today which gives us a chance to reflect on a week gone by that...




Chinese GDP: Wednesday, 2:00. The world’s No. 2 economy has grown at a pace of 7.3% in Q4 2014 and is expected to experience slower growth in Q1. Some say it is inevitable and others say it is wisely engineered by the leadership. Growth in China closely impacts Australia but certainly has implications for the entire world. A slide to 7% y/y is on the cards and as authorities wish to see.
Euro-zone rate decision: Wednesday, decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. In the last meeting by the ECB in early March, Draghi showed determination in implementing the QE program announced in January. Implementation has begun and it is going well. The Bank made it clear that success of the euro-zone in general and particularly regarding inflation depends on full implementation. Will he continue the same determination? If so, the euro would feel the weight. If optimism rises due to the recent signs of growth, we could see the common currency rise. The interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.05% with a negative deposit rate of 0.20%. The latter serves as the lower bar for buying bonds in the QE program
Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged at 0.75% and is expected to do so once again. After the surprise cut in January, Poloz and his team seemed more optimistic about the economy and hinted that this was not the beginning of a new loosening cycle. How will they sound now? Worries about Q1 growth could be echoed in the statement. Note that the release is followed by a press conference at 15:15.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 2:30. Australia enjoyed job growth in February: 15.6K jobs were added. Also the unemployment rate went in the right direction and dropped to 6.3%. In the bigger scheme of things, unemployment is still on the rise and is likely to rise later on in the year. Very similar number are expected now: a gain of 15.1K jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.3%.
US housing data: Thursday, 12:30. These figures went in different directions: building permits rose to a promising 1.09 million (annualized) in February, while housing starts stood on 0.90 million. The latter can be blamed on the cold winter weather, while the former is more forward looking. Building permits are expected to stand at 1.08 million (annualized) and housing starts to bounce back to 1.04 million. Note that revisions are quite common here.
US unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The weekly gauge of jobs did bounce back from the lows but beat expectations by hitting 281K. Perhaps more importantly the moving average fell to levels last seen many years ago at 282K. It was above 300K not too long ago. A small rise to 284K is on the cards.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. The regional figure is for the month of April, providing a fresh insight on the manufacturing situation. 4 consecutive misses on expectations set the number on 5 points last time. A small rise is likely: 5.5 points.
UK employment data: Friday, 8:30. This is the last jobs report before the May elections and carries more political weight. The claimant count change, aka jobless claims, continued dropping quickly in February: 31K. A similar number is probable now – a slide of 28.5K. The unemployment rate is also going in the right direction, and stood on 5.7% in January. A drop to 5.6% is expected. This is what the current conservative coalition government is championing. However, the average earnings index has risen by only 1.8% y/y in January, and this provides fuel for the opposition Labour. A tick down to 1.7% is expected now.
US CPI: Friday, 12:30. When looking at the headline number, the US is experiencing deflation, but this is clearly oil-related. Year over year core inflation is actually on the rise, reaching 1.7% in February. Both monthly indicators rose 0.2% last time and could follow suit this time, with +0.3% in the headline number and +0.2% in the core figure.
US Consumer Confidence: Friday, 14:00. The Reuters / University of Michigan consumer confidence survey edged up to 93 points in the final read for March. We now get the preliminary figure for April and a higher score is expected: 93.8 points.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
04-20-2015, 05:02 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Apr. 20-24
The US dollar had a rough week in which mostly weak economic data hit the greenback. Can hope for a recovery in Q2 help it or are more falls expected? Inflation data in New Zealand and Australia, US Durable Goods Orders and various central bank speeches are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the top events on Forex calendar.


Most US data disappointed with weaker than expected housing and employment data as well as soft retail sales. Jobless claims rose 12,000 to 294K, building permits came reached 1.04 million while forecasted 1.08 million and housing starts hardly recovered with 0.93 million. Retail sales registered a 0.9% increase, below the 1.1% rise predicted and Core sales gained 0.4% far below the 0.7% expected. However, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surprised with 7.5 points vs. 5 in the previous months exceeding forecasts for a 6.5 points reading. Will the US data stabilize this week? Let’s start:




Glenn Stevens speaks: Monday, 17:30. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is expected to speak in New York. He may refer to The RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.25%, despite talks of a rate cut.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German investors’ sentiment remained positive in March, climbing for the fifth time to 54.8 from 53 in February amid rising domestic demand. However concerns about Greece and Ukraine clouded future outlook. Analysts expected a higher figure but predict optimism will grow in the coming months after the fog, surrounding Greece and Ukraine, clears. Investors sentiment is expected to rise to 56.
Australian inflation data: Wednesday, 1:30. Australian inflation in the last quarter of 2014, rose 0.2% following 0.5% rise reported in Q3. The reading was below expectations reflecting lower prices for transport, due to the ongoing decline in oil prices, as well as for healthcare. Falling fuel prices are the main cause for the tame inflation in the fourth quarter. But Core inflation a more precise measure posted a 0.7% gain reaching an annual 2.3% just above the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3% target range. CPI is forecast to gain 0.1%.
US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Sales of existing home are the majority of transactions. After slipping to 4.88 million in February, a rise to 5.04 million is on the cards now. The numbers are annualized.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment aid increased by 12,000 to 294,000, rising for the second straight week. However, the number of jobless workers is still low. The four-week average, edged up by 250 to 282,750, nearly the same as in the prior week. The total number of Americans seeking aid declined to 2.27 million, the lowest in more than 14 years. The number of claims is expected to reach 90,000 this week.
New Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. New home sales form the smaller part of transactions, but their initiation triggers a wide variety of economic activity. Here, a slide is expected from the highs of 539K (annualized) seen in February to 514K now.
Eurogroup Meetings: Friday. The Eurogroup meetings attended by Finance Ministers from the euro area will be crucial for Greece. Unless a funding agreement is reached, Greece will not get the third aid program from the ECB, resulting in a default. Athens has not received bailout aid since August last year and has been hard pressed to cover payments amid a cash crunch, resorting to measures such as borrowing from state entities to tide it over.
German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. German Ifo business climate edged up to 107.9 in March from 106.8 in February, beating forecast for 107.3. Optimism about current conditions rose as well as six months outlook. Strong growth and low oil prices boosted domestic demand. Ifo economists believe expansion will continue in the coming months.
US Durable Goods Orders: Friday, 12:30. Orders for long lasting goods declined in February by 1.4% contrary to forecast of 0.3% gain. Meanwhile, core orders fell 0.4% posting the fifth straight monthly decline. The weak figures suggest softening in domestic demand despite growth in employment. However, economists expect growth will increase in the coming months.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
04-28-2015, 07:36 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Apr 27-May 1
The US dollar did not get support from the US economy and retreated. A busy week awaits us at the turn of the month: GDP from the UK, the US and Canada and three rate decisions. The Federal Reserve stands out. These are the major events lined up for this week. Join us as we explore the market movers for this week.


US data ran below expectations, with a 1,000 rise in the number of jobless claims, reaching 295,000, Another disappointing release came from the housing market where new U.S. single-family home sales recorded their sharpest fall in more than 1.5 years, down 11.4% to 481,000 units in March. Core durable goods orders were also quite worrying. In the euro-zone, data was unconvincing as well and Greece provided only confusion. The UK is nearing the elections but the data still has its impact and it didn’t look too good. The Aussie was pressured by China and the kiwi by its central bank. Let’s start,




UK GDP: Tuesday, 8:30. Britain’s recovery lost momentum in the fourth quarter of 2014, expanding 0.5% while posting 0.7% growth in the third quarter. Economists expected the economy would expand 0.6%. The main drop occurred in the construction sector. UK’s service sector gained 0.8% in the last quarter. However, despite the slowdown, 2014 growth was the strongest growth since before the financial crisis with an annual expansion of 2.6%. Economists expect the first quarter growth will reach 0.5%.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence edged up in March to 101.3 from 98.8 in February amid renewed optimism over the labor market. The harsh winter weather and softer global demand, weakened growth early in the first quarter. But consumers continue to be optimistic regarding the labor market. Some analysts believe the soft growth may cause the Fed to delay the planned rate hike. However, positive housing data together with healthy employment reports indicate the US economy is on a growth trend. Consumer sentiment is expected to growth further to 102.6 in April.
US GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. The US economy slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2014 as government spending declined sharply and business investment halted. Gross domestic product reached an annual rate of 2.2% from a strong 5% rise in the third quarter. Economists expected 3% growth. The economy grew 2.4% in 2014 compared to 2.2% in 2013. Analysts forecast a boost in growth amid the collapse in energy prices increasing consumer spending power. Analysts forecast a 1.1% expansion in the first quarter.
US rate decision: Thursday, 18:00. The Federal Reserve inched closer to hiking rates in its March meeting, but downgraded its economic growth and forecasts, indicating they’re in no hurry to normalize rate levels. The word “patient” was removed from the central bank’s statement, increasing prospects for a rate hike but at the same time not providing a specific date. Yellen told reporters that a June move could not be ruled out. Analysts do not expect the Fed to raise rates this time. Concerns about the economy will be closely scrutinized.
NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate on hold, noting it will not cut rates as did the rest 18 central banks around the world and promised a “period of stability” for up to two years. Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler still voiced his concern about the strength of the dollar and the immediate need to depreciate its value. The Bank projects inflation will remain low for the rest of the year. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but could repeat the dovish comments heard recently.
Japan rate decision: Thursday. The Bank of Japan has kept its monetary policy unchanged in its April meeting, even though the two year deadline for its 2.0% inflation target has passed and inflation remained near zero. BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated inflation expectations are positive despite the temporary fall due to the oil price crush and that the Central bank is on the right track and easing measures will continue as planned. Economists do not expect any policy changes this time.
Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canada’s economy shrank 0.1% in January, following 0.3% gain in December. Economists expected a 0.2% expansion in January. Oil and gas production increased 2.6% as well as oil extraction despite low prices. However, economists believe low oil prices will have a negative effect on inflation and growth, which may compel the central bank to cut another 25 basis points in the near future. Canadian economy is expected to contract 0.2% in February.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 1,000 last week to 295,000. Despite expectations for a lower figure of 288,000, the number of firing is near a 15-year low, indicating the recent decline in hiring is only temporary. The four-week average dropped 22,000 to 2.31 million; the lowest level since December 2000. The number of claims is expected to reach 297,000 this week.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. US Manufacturing PMI fell in March for the first time in 14 months to 51.5 from 52.9 in February. The reading was below market forecast of 52.5. The employment index declined 1.4 points to 50. Exports contracted more strongly to 47.5 from 48.5. Production expanded, but new orders growth slowed to a reading of 51.8. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 52.1 in April.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
05-04-2015, 10:22 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook May 4-8


The US dollar experienced a very turbulent week, tumbling down and recovering, but not against the euro. Close elections in the UK, an important rate decision in Australia, employment data from New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the all- important US non-Farm Payrolls release are key events. These are the highlight events on Forex calendar for this week. Here is an outlook on the top events coming our way.


The Federal Reserve downgraded its economic outlook amid soft growth data. The Fed admitted recent weakness in the first quarter relating it to temporary factors. Inflation will have to climb back to 2% and the job market needs to improve further before a rate hike is announced. However, the Fed believes the US economy will rebound in the second quarter. Meanwhile, jobless claims released last Thursday, surprised markets with a 34,000 fall in the number of claims nut not all data points impressed. The biggest winner was the euro, that broke critical resistance and seems unstoppable. Poor data weighs on the pound towards the elections and central banks weigh on the kiwi and the Aussie.




Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive month in April, as the majority of policy makers decided against another rate cut. The last rate cut in February was designed to boost growth in non-mining sectors. RBA governor Glenn Stevens notes in his rate statement that further easing measures will be announced in the next few months. No change in rate is expected this time, but there is no 100% consensus. This means that a rate cut will hit the Aussie, and another “no cut” is set to boost it.
US Trade Balance: Tuesday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in February to the lowest level since 2009, reaching $35.4 billion. Economists expected deficit will rise to $41.3 billion. However, the strong dollar, weak global demand and lower crude oil prices probably impacted trade balance in February. Despite the low deficit, economic growth slowed considerably in the first quarter. Exports declined 1.6% to $186.2 billion, the smallest since October 2012, while imports from China fell 18.1%, pushing the politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit down 21.2 percent to $22.5 billion. Trade deficit is expected to grow to 39.7 billion in March.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. The U.S. non-manufacturing sector continued to expand at a slower pace in March, as service companies increased their export orders. Economists expected Non-Manufacturing PMI to reach 56.6. The majority of respondents’ were positive about business conditions and the overall economy. The ISM’s new orders index increased to 57.8 in March from 56.7 in February. The export index jumped to 59.0 from 53.0. The ISM business activity index declined to 57.5 from 59.4 in February and 61.5 in January. Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 56.2 in April.
NZ employment data: Tuesday, 22:45. New Zealand’s employment market expanded 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to 0.8% growth in the previous quarter. Economists expected a 0.8% rise in the number of new positions. Despite the bigger than expected job gain, the unemployment rate increased to 5.7% from 5.4% in the third quarter, posting the highest unemployment rate since Q1 2014. Analysts estimate an average of 5.2% in 2015. New Zealand’s employment is expected to grow by 0.7% in the first quarter, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to decline to 5.5%.
US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. The U.S. private sector registered the smallest job gain in more than a year, adding 189,000 positions in March. The reading was below market forecast of 227,000 jobs and weaker than the 212,000 increase in posted the previous month. Harsh winter, a strong dollar and weaker global demand were partial causes for the disappointing jobs release. ADP private sector employment is expected to grow by 185,000 in April.
Janet Yellen speaks: Wednesday, 13:15. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington DC. She may speak about the recent FOMC rate decision the state of the job market. Market volatility is expected.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 2:30. Australia’s labor market expanded by 37,000 new jobs in March, pulling the unemployment rate down to 6.1%. The majority of jobs asses were full time positions. Economists expected a lower gain of 14900 positions and forecasted unemployment of 6.3%. Productivity has climbed increasing employers’ demand for workers. Improved job prospects expected to lift household incomes and boost the economy. Australian labor market is forecasted to expand by 3,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to reach 6.2%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell last week to the lowest level since 2000, indicating the weakness in the labor market during March was only temporary. The number of initial claims plunged 34,000 a seasonally adjusted 262,000, beating forecasts for 290,000 new claims. The four-week moving average declined l 1,250 to 283,750.
UK elections: Thursday, initial results expected late in the US session. After 5 years of a Conservative-LibDem coalition, incumbent David Cameron boasts an recovering economy while Labour leader Ed Miliband points to deteriorating standards of living. The markets would prefer a Conservative government, the current coalition or at least an outright majority for Labour. However, things look much more complicated, with both leading parties expected to fall short of a majority and a hung parliament also on the cards – an uncertain situation with negative ramifications for the pound. Polls are too close to call, making it an interesting event indeed.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian economy unexpectedly added 28,700 jobs in March, beating forecasts of jobs contraction. The majority of jobs were part-time positions, but employers also cut 28,200 full-time jobs. The main gain was detected in the service sector. RBA Governor Stephen Poloz stated that first quarter growth will be badly affected by the recent oil price collapse. The labor participation rate edged up to 65.9% from 65.7%. The unemployment rate remained at 6.8% while expected to tick up to 6.9%.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. US non-farm payrolls disappointed in March showing job growth of 126,000 positions, far below the 246,000 gain expected by analysts and following 295,000 job addition in February. Meanwhile the unemployment rate remained stable at 5.5% in line with market forecast. The employment-population ratio remained at 59.3%, while the participation rate edged down to 62.7% in March from 62.8% in the prior month. US private sector is expected to gain 231,000 jobs, lowering the unemployment rate to 5.4%.



*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
05-11-2015, 11:44 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook May 11-15
Forex markets have seen a turbulent week, in which the USD suffered but managed to partially recover. German GDP, UK Employment data, Mark Carney’s speech and US consumer data stand out. These are the major events on forex calendar. Join us as we explore this week’s highlights.


The Non-Farm Payrolls release showed the U.S. economy created 223,000 jobs in April, rebounding from a poor jobs gain in March. The details of the report are mixed, but there are slightly more positives than negatives. The euro jumped yo highs last seen in February on a short squeeze but retreated. In the UK, the Conservatives won an absolute majority, the best outcome for markets, and the pound jumped on this surprise. The Australian dollar suffered a rate cut but also no further cuts anytime soon and the reaction was positive for AUD/USD. The loonie made some nice gains with oil, but found it hard to maintain them. Let’s start:




UK rate decision: Monday, 11:00. The Bank of England maintained its benchmark borrowing rate at a record low of 0.50% on April, following weaker than expected inflation. Britain’s economy prospered in 2014 with an annual growth of 3%. Despite a slow start of 2015 growth is expected to pick-up in the coming months and the sudden fall in inflation is mostly associated to the global slump in oil prices. The BoE forecasts a 2% inflation in two years’ time. The Central Bank also kept the 375 billion of government bonds to further boost the UK economy. No change in rates is expected this time.
Graeme Wheeler speaks: Tuesday, 22:45. RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler will hold a press conference in Wellington following the release of the Financial Stability Report. In the last monetary policy meeting Wheeler said uncertainties exist in Europe, China and Australia, although global growth should be boosted by the decline in world oil prices. He also said that New Zealand economy continues to expand at an annual rate of around 3%, supported by low interest rates, high net immigration and construction activity, and the fall in fuel prices.
German GDP: Wednesday, 6:00. Germany’s economy expanded more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2014. GDP grew by 0.7% thanks to a boost in domestic demand. Analysts expected a lower expansion rate of 0.3%. Europe’s economic leader continued to expand as lower inflation increased demand and wages kept growing at a healthy pace of 2.8% in 2014. Furthermore, since interest rates on deposits were approaching the negative territory, people saw no reason to save. GDP growth is expected to reach 0.5%.
UK employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. U.K. jobless claims fell to the lowest level in forty years falling 20,700 in March to 772,400, the lowest since 1975. Wage growth is strongly felt due to zero inflation. Household income is expected to be robust in 2015. Annual pay growth excluding bonuses accelerated from 1.6%. In February alone, wages rose 2.2% from a year earlier, following 1.6% in January, the biggest increase since 2011. The number of available jobs edged up to 743,000 in the first quarter, the highest since comparable records began in 2001. The number of Jobless claims is expected to drop 20,100.
Mark Carney talks: Wednesday, 9:30. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in London about the Inflation Report. Carney said policymakers shouldn’t fight the current period of low inflation by inserting stimulus into the economy, since this fall is temporary and related to the oil price crush.
US Retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Retail sales edged up in March for the first time since November rising 0.9% compared to a 0.6% decline in the prior month. Economists expected and even higher rise of 1.1%. Consumers increased purchases of automobiles and other goods, suggesting the slowdown in the first quarter was temporary. Meanwhile, core retail sales, excluding automobiles, increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in March, a bit weaker than the 0.6% forecasted. Analysts expect retail sales to rise 0.3% and core sales to climb 0.4%.
US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices increased in March 0.2% following four months of declines indicating signs of firming in underlying inflation. Analysts forecasted PPI to reach 0.3% after falling 0.5% in February. Energy prices have stabilized, but weak global demand may to keep inflation subdued for a longer period. Due to low inflation levels, most analysts reduced their expectations for a Fed rate hike. Producer prices are predicted to rise 0.1% in April.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased last week by a mere 3,000 last week to 265,000, reaffirming the positive trend in the US labor market. The encouraging employment figures continue to improve despite a temporary decline in growth. Analysts expected claims to reach 277,000. The four-week moving average of claims, fell 4,250 to 279,500, the lowest since May 2000. The number of new unemployment claims is forecasted to reach 271,000.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. US consumer confidence edged up in April to 95.9 from 93 after two months of declines. Economists forecasted a minor rise to 93.8. Since growth is expected to increase in the second quarter, Consumer sentiment and consumer spending will follow suit. Consumer sentiment is forecasted to rise further to 96.5 this time.



*All times are GMT

Samirofi
05-18-2015, 02:54 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook May 18-22
The dollar was on the back foot on more worrying signs from the US economy. Inflation data from the UK, the US and Canada, German Economic Sentiment, GDP data from Japan, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, employment and manufacturing data as well as speeches from Mario Draghi, Mark Carney and Haruhiko Kuroda. These are the main events on our calendar. Join us as we explore the big market movers for this week.


Last week, further lukewarm data from the US unsettled markets: Retail sales disappointed with a flat reading after gaining 1.1% in March, missing forecast for a 0.3% rise; Core sales rose a mere 0.1% while anticipated to rise 0.4%. Producer prices declined 0.4% in April after a 0.2% gain in the prior month, while expected to increase 0.1%; Consumer sentiment also disappointed with a sharp drop from 95.9 in April to 88.6 this month, lower than the 95.8 forecast by analysts. However, jobless claims continued to decline reaching 264,000 after posting 265,000 in the prior week. Will the US economy shake off losses in the coming weeks? Let’s start:




UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK Consumer Prices remained at 0% for the second consecutive month in March. A decline in clothing and footwear was offset by a rise in petrol prices. This reading was the lowest since estimates began in the late 1980s. However falling oil prices were the major force behind the low inflation levels. Economists believe inflation will pick-up in the second half of 2015 after oil price pressure subsides. CPI is expected to remain flat in April.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German investor sentiment declined unexpectedly in April after six months of gains, caused by rising uncertainty regarding Greece’s debt crisis and its impact on Germany. The ZEW index of investor and analyst expectations declined to 53.3 from 54.8 in March, while economists expected a rise to 55.6. However, despite the fall in sentiment the ECB is convinces that the German economy will continue to strengthen due to the exceptional policy stimulus in Europe. German investor sentiment is expected to fall further to 50.1 this time.
US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of residential building permits issued in March declined 5.7% from February reaching an annual rate of 1,039,000. Analysts expected a higher figure of 1,080,000. Meanwhile, privately-owned housing starts in were 2.5% lower than in March reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 926,000. The lukewarm figures suggest the economy is struggling to rebound from a weak start of 2015. The number of residential building permits is expected to rise to 1,070,000 in April.
Stephen Poloz speaks: Tuesday, 15:45. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is scheduled to speak in Charlottetown. Poloz may talk about the negative effects from the oil price shock and the prospects of expansion. The Governor may also talk about the possibility of further rate changes in the coming months.
Japan GDP data: Tuesday, 23:50. Japan rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2014, expanding 0.6%. Although the release was weaker than estimated it showed an annual growth of 2.2%. Exports edged up 0.2% and the weak yen increased foreign demand. Private consumption increased 0.3%, but business spending grew just 0.1%. Economists expected a quarterly growth of 0.9% and an annual growth of 3.7%. Possible downside risk is the expected sales tax due to reach 10% in April 2017. This is why the BOJ is determined to maintain accommodative monetary policy to boost domestic demand and increase growth. Japan’s growth in the first quarter is expected to reach 0.4%.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In the most recent meeting in April, the Fed removed forward guidance, opening the door to raising the rates. While they did express some worries about the economy, the statement was perceived as somewhat hawkish, especially on the background of the poor GDP released on the same day. The minutes could reveal more worries and good weigh on the dollar. We have already seen in the past how the minutes took a different approach than the statement.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of jobless claims continued to decline this week dropping additional 1000 from last week, reaching 264,0000. The reading was better than forecasted, pushing the average over the past month to the lowest level in 15 years reaffirming the rebound in the US labor market. Fed Chair Janet Yellen closely monitors employment data to determine whether a rate hike is in order. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 267,000 this week.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. The Philadelphia manufacturing index surprised in April by rising to 7.5 points from 5.0 in March. Analysts expected the headline index to reach 6.5 points. New orders fell to 0.7 from the previous reading of 3.9, the lowest reading of new orders since May 2013. Meanwhile, the employment index rose to 11.5 from the March’s reading of 3.9, the highest since November. Inflation declined sharply to -7.5 from March’s reading of -3.0. Other data suggest weakness in the manufacturing sector. The Philadelphia manufacturing index is forecasted to rise further to 8.3 in May.
Mario Draghi speaks: ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Sintra-Portugal at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Policy makers from various countries will attend the ECB Forum and discuss the relationship between inflation and unemployment from a broader perspective as well as its implications for current monetary policy-making globally. He recently dragged the euro lower, but this was only temporary.
Japan rate decision: Friday. The Bank of Japan decided to continue implementing its present monetary policy despite failing to reach its deadline for the 2% inflation target. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that further easing measures are not necessary, blaming the weak inflation on lower oil prices. However many analysts believe the BOJ will decide to ease policy again in October. Kuroda postponed the inflation target to around April to September 2016 saying trend inflation is improving steadily. Analysts do not expect any changes in Japan’s monetary policy.
US inflation data: Friday, 12:30. U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in March continuing its rise from February, in line with market forecast. The main increase occurred in energy and shelter costs. However, on an annual basis inflation turned negative, falling 0.1%, compared to February’s unchanged reading. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core inflation also rose 0.2% following February’s 0.2% gain, according to forecasts. On an annual basis, core inflation edged up 1.8%, up from the previous reading of 1.6%. CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% and Core CPI is expected to gain 0.2% in April.
Mark Carney and Haruhiko Kuroda speak: BOE Governor Mark Carney and BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Sintra-Portugal at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Policy makers from various countries will attend the ECB Forum and discuss the relationship between inflation and unemployment from a broader perspective as well as its implications for current monetary policy-making globally.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
05-25-2015, 04:41 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook May 25-29
The US dollar made a comeback and the greenback was a big loser in a week that saw trends change. And now, US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence as well as UK, Canadian and US GDP data stand out. These are the highlight events in Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers for this week.


The Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 28-29 policy meeting, revealing the planned rate hike will not take place in June. Despite growing confidence in the US economic recovery, the recent data suggest a temporary slowdown. Weaker consumer spending, slow growth and employment data led policy makers to postpone their decision on raising rates. Fed officials were also disappointed that falling oil prices did not spur growth as anticipated and that the recent dollar softness muted inflation. The Fed has reiterated it will not raise rates until it is “reasonably confident” that prices are moving toward its 2% target. Will the US economy rebound from its recent soft patch? In the euro-zone, talk about front-loading QE hit the euro in particular. The common currency reversed its previous gains. In the UK, inflation dipped below 0% and in Japan GDP came out better than expected. Let’s start:




US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. The U.S. manufacturing sector rebounded in March amid expansion in the transportation industry. New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods increased by 4.0%, to $240.2 billion, following a 1.4% decline in February. However, core durable goods orders, excluding the volatile transportation sector, declined 0.2% to $159.9 billion. The weak core figure followed seven months of negative readings, indicating the second quarter may not be as strong as forecast. A drop of 0.4% in orders and a gain of 0.5% in core orders is on the cards.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in April to 95.2 from 101.4 in March amid weak job growth. While economists expected sentiment to rise to 102.5, sentiment plunged to the lowest level in 2015. Fuel prices continue to remain below last year’s prices contributing to growth but the soft patch in the US labor market overshadowed this positive development. 95.3 is expected now.
Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate unchanged at 0.75%. Governor Stephen Poloz forecast a positive outlook for the Canadian economy, despite the current weakness related to the collapse in oil prices. The central bank cut its original 1.5% growth forecast for the first quarter of 2015, to non- growth. However, Poloz insisted the economy would rebound in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, many economists believe the oil prices collapse will have a longer effect on Canadian growth.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 10,000 claims last week, reaching 274,000. Analysts expected a smaller rise to 271,000. Despite last week’s increase, the number of claims remained below 300,000 indicating the labor market continues to strengthen for the 11th week. The four-week moving average fell 5,500 last week to 266,250, reaching the lowest level since April 2000. A similar level of 272K is estimated now.
UK GDP: Thursday, 8:30. According to the preliminary release for Q1 2015, the economy expanded by only 0.3%. The figure will likely be upgraded to 0.4% this time. It’s important to note that this growth rate is lower than seen beforehand.
Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s economy stalled in February showing no-growth, after contracting 0.2% in January. The mild improvement in the service sector was offset by contraction in goods-producing industries. Both manufacturing and energy sectors shrank in February suggesting the energy sector is not the sole cause for Canada’s economic weakness, as implied by the Central Bank. Economists believe the BOC will have to cut rates later this year to spur growth. An advance of 0.2% is on the cards now.
US GDP: Friday, 12:30. According to the first release for Q1, the economy grew at an annual rate of only 0.2%, below expectations. Things are expected to turn even lower, with a downgrade to contraction of around 0.9% this time . Fed Reserve chair, Janet Yellen also discussed the possibility of raising rates if the employment market will show substantial signs of growth.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
06-08-2015, 06:59 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook June 8-12
The US dollar had the final word in a turbulent and volatile week. G7 Meetings, a rate decision in New Zealand, employment data in Australia, as well as US retail sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment stand out. These are the highlight events for this week. Join us as we explore the main market movers.


US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised with an excellent release showing a job gain of 280,000 in May. This was accompanied by a rise in wages widening participation and sent the dollar rallying. Things were more complicated beforehand for the greenback. The euro enjoyed the lack of worries from the ECB about bond volatility and the lack of rush to front load QE. Yet most of the EUR/USD surge was eventually erased. The pound suffered from a poor PMI while the Aussie only partially enjoyed the strong GDP report. What’s next for currencies? We can certainly agree with Draghi about getting used to volatility. Let’s start:




G7 Meetings: Sun-Mon. finance ministers and central bankers from 7 industrialized nations will meet in Germany to discuss the escalating Greek debt crisis as well as global economy and foreign policy challenges. Russia will not participate in these meeting, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted there are many other ways to communicate with the Russian president. For example, the Normandy Format, where Germany and France together with Russia and Ukraine discuss how to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The IMF will lead the negotiations with Greece instead of a German-dominated negotiating forum.
Glenn Stevens speaks: Wednesday, 2:50. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak in Melbourne after leaving us with a neutral bias in the last rate decision. Stevens may speak about the slower than expected pace of growth in Australian economy and the weakness in business capital expenditure in both the mining and non-mining sectors. However, the good news is that the Aussie depreciated in the past year, lowering key commodity prices.
Mark Carney speaks: Wednesday, 20:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in London. He may have to refer to the embarrassing revelation that the Bank of England is secretly planning for Britain’s exit from the European Union. “Project Bookend” was accidently delivered to an editor at The Guardian newspaper and was also kept from many of the BOE’s stuff. Market volatility is expected.
New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained rates at 3.5% in April, in light of the rising uncertainties in Europe, China and Australia as well as, domestic dependence on accommodative monetary settings. However, the massive decline in world oil prices is expected to boost growth since Crude oil prices are almost 50 percent below their July 2014 level. Inflation remains low but is expected to pick up gradually. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to maintain rates in June but many expect a cut later this year.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s unemployment rate in April increased mildly as expected, reaching 6.2%, after a fall of 2,900 positions in April. The unemployment in Australian remains above 6% in the last 11 months indicating sluggish growth in the Australian job market. Full-time employment decreased by 21,900, while part-time employment increased by 19,000. Australian employment market is expected to add 15,200 jobs while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 6.2%.
US Retail sales: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales remained flat in April amid reduction in purchases of automobiles, indicating the US economy is struggling to get back on track after sluggish growth in the first quarter. Hopes for a strong rebound in the second quarter are fading in light of this weak release as well as other economic indicators. Retail sales excluding automobiles, inched 0.1%, while expected to rise 0.4%. The lukewarm data suggests the Fed will not hurry to raise rates anytime soon. Analysts expect U.S. retail sales to edge up 1.1% and forecast core sales to rise 0.7%.
US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits declined unexpectedly last week to 276,000, remaining below 300,000 for the 13th week. The four-week average moved up 2,750 to 274,750. The relatively small number of employment seekers indicates improved job security. Economists hope for a solid job gain in May. Job growth remained strong despite temporary setbacks, suggesting employers were not deterred by the slowdown in the first quarter. The number of claims is expected to reach 277,000 this week.
US PPI: Friday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices resumed their descent in April as energy prices continued to decline. Producer price index fell 0.4%, falling for the third time this year after rising 0.2% in March. In the 12 months through April, producer prices fell 1.3% the biggest decline since 2010. The 0.7% drop in finished goods was the major cause for the decline in the PPI. Economists forecast a 0.4% rose in Producer prices this time.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. The University of Michigan’s survey showed Consumer sentiment declined in May to 90.7 from 95.9 in April, the lowest reading since November 2014. Consumers were more concerned about current economic conditions as well as the future. However, the Conference Board, a business group, reported that its index of consumer moral showed mild improvement in May. From 94.3 to 95.4. Nevertheless, The Michigan index is well above last year’s 81.9 indicating a pickup in consumption. Consumer sentiment is expected to grow to 91.3 in June.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
06-15-2015, 05:47 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook June 15-19
The US dollar did not lick honey against most currencies despite some OK data. The focus now moves to the all-important Fed decision. In addition we have housing and inflation numbers in the US, rate decisions in Japan and Switzerland and the ongoing Greek crisis. These are among the main events on forex calendar for this week. Here is an outlook on the market movers coming our way.


The released positive economic data with better than expected retail sales figures. American consumers increased their purchases in May, especially for autos, clothes and building materials, suggesting the improvement in the labor market boosted sales. Also consumer sentiment for June beat expectations, but most market analysts doubt this is enough for an early rate. In the euro-zone, Greek headlines had a growing impact on the common currency as the clock is ticking. The Aussie enjoyed a good employment report while the kiwi fell sharply on a rate cut. Where will currencies move next? Let’s start,




UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK inflation turned negative in April, reaching -0.1%. This was the first negative figure ever recorded. Bank of England governor Mark Carney forecasted low inflation in the coming months, but expects a gradual pick up towards the end of 2015. The sharp fall in oil prices is the major reason for low inflation. However, this global trend is positive for UK households despite concerns of weaker business investments. UK inflation is expected to rebound in May and rise 0.1%.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German investor sentiment plunged in May, amid the Greek debacle and lack of growth. Economic sentiment fell to 41.9 from 53.3 in April considerably lower than the 48.8 estimated by analysts. Responders were concerned about the sluggish growth data of only 0.3% growth in the first quarter compared to 0.7% in the last quarter of 2014. Furthermore, Greece’s inevitable default raises fears over the Eurozone economic outlook. German investor climate is expected to decline further to 38.6.
US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. building permits edged up to their highest level in nearly 7-1/2 years in April, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.14 million units, following 1.04 million in March. Additional positive construction data suggest a possible rebound in the housing sector. The rise in demand for new houses is a positive trend following the harsh winter of 2015. The strong housing data is expected to have a positive effect on GDP growth in the second quarter. The number of building permits is expected to reach 1.10 million units this time.
UK Employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The UK labor market continued to improve in April. Unemployment fell and the number of people employed continued to rise. The number of people claiming jobless benefits declined by 12,600 in April to 764,000. Government officials were pleased with the positive data, claiming their government is working. Rising demand for workers pushed regular pay growth to 2.2%. Weak inflation and higher wages are welcome news for the UK households. This will also have a positive effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. This is the first meeting that does not carry any forward guidance regarding rates. In addition, it is accompanied by fresh economic forecasts, the “dot plot” and of course, a press conference by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, all making this meeting a very big event. The baseline scenario is that the Fed will wait just a bit more before raising the rates, with economists focusing on the September meeting. However, a rate hike is possible already now and in July. On on hand, the Fed would like to start the “lift off” and prevent bubbles. On the other hand, it would not like to act prematurely, choking the recovery and having to reverse. Every word in the statement and every word that Yellen will say carry a lot of weight. Worries could send down the dollar while upbeat sentiment about the positive data in the spring could be dollar positive. A repeat of the “hike in 2015″ stance would be generally positive.
NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. New Zealand economy expanded 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014, in line with market forecast, following a 0.9% growth in the third quarter. Retail and accommodation edged up 2.3% in the last quarter of 2014 while international tourist spending increased by 15%. Retail trade also climbed 1.8%. Year-on-year, the economy grew 3.5%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. New Zealand Q1 GDP is expected to reach 0.6%.
Switzerland: rate decision: Thursday, 7:30. The Swiss National Bank decided to keep interest rates at negative 0.75%, waiting to see the full impact of its unexpected move in January. The change in the monetary conditions was made in an effort to depreciate the Swiss franc, but had a negative effect on household savings and pension funds becoming a matter of concern for the Swiss population. SNB President Thomas Jordan noted that the franc was still overvalued and that there was room for an even lower rate in the future. The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain the negative rate of -0.75%.
US inflation data: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. inflation excluding energy costs edged up 0.3% in April amid a rise in shelter and medical care costs. Analysts expected a 0.2% climb as in March. Meanwhile, the overall CPI climbed 0.1% after rising 0.2%in March. The rise was held back by a 1.7% decline in gasoline prices and no change in food prices. April’s figures support the Fed’s decision to raise rates, showing signs that inflation was moving toward the Fed’s target. CPI is forecasted to rise 0.5% while Core CPI is expected to gain 0.2%.
US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number new claims for unemployment benefits increased mildly last week, reaching 279,000, still remaining below 300,000. This was the 14th week that claims held below the 300,000 threshold, indicating the labor market continues to strengthen. Economists expected the number of claims will reach 277,000. The four-week average of claims increased 3,750 to 278,750 last week. The number of jobless claims is forecasted to reach 278,000 this week.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area weakened in May, according to responders. Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook fell to 6.7 in May from 7.5 in April. New orders rose 0.3% following 0.7. Current shipments index also rise 3 points to a reading of 1 and Employment conditions weakened by 5 points to 6.7, from April’s reading of 11.5. The manufacturing sector in the New York region found some momentum late last week with the Empire State manufacturing survey bouncing back into positive territory. However, the 3.1 reading in May remained weaker than expected. Manufacturing sentiment in the Philadelphia area is expected to rise to 8.1.
Japan rate decision: Friday. the Bank of Japan voted to maintain its monetary policy stance unchanged in May and continue implementing money market operations to ensure a monetary base of JPY 80 trillion a year. The decision, which was in line with market forecast. The BOJ noted that Japan’s economy is continuing to improve. Exports increased boosting growth in the manufacturing sector and increasing business investments. However, the Bank also stated that inflation is likely to remain close to 0% in the near term due to the energy price decline. No change in rates is expected.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
06-23-2015, 10:17 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook June 22-26
The dollar was on the back foot against many currencies in the wake of the dovish Fed decision. Will the greenback continue sliding? US Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and final GDP are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market movers coming our way.


The Fed was being the Fed: no rate hike, lower rate projections and still waiting to be confident that the economy is strong. And more specifically, Yellen was probably Yellen, staying within the dovish camp and seeing only rate hike this year. The dollar was hit hard across the board, with GBP/USD reaching out to new highs and EUR/USD breaking the double top. In the euro-zone, the Greek crisis intensified and this weighed on the common currency. What lies ahead? Let’s start:




Summit on Greece: Monday. The finance ministers will meet at 13:00 and the leaders later on, in last ditch efforts to stabilize the Greek crisis as money is fleeing the nation’s banks. June 30th is the deadline in which Greece has to pay the IMF and when the current program expires. Fed officials also acknowledged that a Greek “rupture” could eventually hit the US economy.
US Existing Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. The number of previously owned home sales declined to 5.04 million annualized rate in April, following strong reading of 5.21 million in March. Analysts expected home sales to reach 5.23 million. Prices jumped since the start of 2014 and the housing inventory contracted at same time last year. However, economists estimate the housing market will continue its progress in the coming months due to higher wages and low mortgage rates. Existing home sales are expected to reach 5.29 million this time.
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:45. This independent measure of the world’s No. 2 economy has a significant impact on the Aussie and also gives us an indicator of the global economy. After showing a contraction with 49.2 points in May, the preliminary number for June is predicted to advance to 49.4 points. A score above 50 represents growth, and under means contraction.
Jerome Powell speaks: Tuesday, 12:00. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powel will speak in Washington DC and talk about the recent monetary policy meeting and its decisions. Market volatility is expected.
US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. The capital goods rebounded in April despite the sharp decline in aircraft-related orders. Excluding transportation core orders edged up 0.5% following a 0.6 gain in the previous month, indicating growth in business investment. A sharp decline of 3.6% in civilian aircraft orders caused the negative reading of -0.5%. Analysts expected a slightly better reading of -0.4%. However, other sectors showed a positive increase. Durable goods orders are expected to reach -0.5% while core orders are forecasted to rise 0.6%.
German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. German Ifo business confidence fell for the first time in seven months in May, to 108.5 compared following 108.6 in April. However, the reading was better than the 108.3 forecasted by analysts. The drop in sentiment was due to uncertainty over Greece’s place in the euro-area and the negative effect of a Greek default on the 19-nation currency bloc. German business sentiment is expected to reach 108.2.
US Final GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. According to the second read of GDP, the economy contracted by 0.7% (annaulized) in Q1. The drop in output was blamed on the weather, a strike in ports and other reasons. The current assessment is that the economy rebounded in Q2. In the third and final read for Q1, the contraction is set to be smaller: only 0.2%. A positive number would certainly cheer the Fed.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 claims last week to a seasonally adjusted 267,000. The reading was well below forecasts, pushing the four-week moving average down by 2,000 to 276,750. Continuing jobless claims fell by 50,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2.22 million, indicating US labor market continues to improve. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 271,000 this week.

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
06-30-2015, 06:40 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Jun 29-Jul 3
The US dollar gained some ground in a week that focused on the Greek crisis. Apart from the worsening crisis, the new quarter brings the NFP with a short buildup as well as GDP figures. It’s going to get busy. These are the major events on Forex calendar. Join us as we explore the market movers for this week.


The Greek crisis went from optimism to despair and all the way around. Things deteriorated after the market’s closed with a dramatic announcement on a referendum in Greece after the deadline. How will this high stakes game end? US economic data were mostly positive. The housing sector is in a growth trend due to the constant improvement in the job market and employment conditions. The number of purchases of new U.S. homes surged in May, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000, the strongest pace since February 2008, rising 24% on a yearly base. Will this trend continue? Let’s start:




Greek crisis showdown: Tuesday, June 30th. The end of the month is a double deadline: the end of the bailout agreement and the timing of the IMF payment that was bundled. At the current state of affairs, Greece has no money to pay. It is also unclear if the banks will be able to open on Monday and if negotiations will indeed continue. Things are moving all the time and not only around the deadline, but if Greece does not pay the IMF, it will mark another deterioration in the already extreme crisis.
Glenn Stevens speaks: Tuesday, 8:40. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak in London. Stevens may talk about the lukewarm economic growth and overvalued housing market. He usually uses every opportunity to weigh on the Australian dollar.
Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 12:30. Canada’s economy contracted 0.2% in March, posting the third straight decline, led by 2.6% fall in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Analysts expected 0.2% expansion in Match. Gross domestic product plunged 0.6% annualized pace in the first quarter, due to the fall in energy prices. The GDP release was worse than forecasted, while the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz expected the first quarter to be flat. However, policy makers expect a rebound in growth during the second quarter led by non-energy exports. Economists expect a 0.1% growth in April.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00 Consumer confidence increased more than expected in May, reaching 95.4 from a revised April reading of 94.3. Economists forecasted a reading of 95 points. Stronger housing and employment data were the main cause for the rise in sentiment. Furthermore, better wages increases spending and boosts economic activity. Consumer confidence is expected to grow to 97.1 in June.
US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. Employment in the private sector expanded by 201,000 jobs in May compared to 165,000 in April. The reading was better than the 198,000 jobs gain forecasted by analysts. The labor market returned to the 200,000 mark indicating healthy employment growth. If the current pace of job gain continues, the economy is expected to reach full employment in a year’s time. US private sector is expected to expand 216,000 in June.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded at a faster pace than expected in May, reaching 52.8 from 51.5 on April. Analysts forecasted a reading of 51.9. New Orders edged up to 55.8, rising 2.3 points from April. The Production Index posted 54.5, 1.5 points below the April reading. The Employment Index registered 51.7, 3.4 points above the April reading indicating broad-based growth. The Prices Index reached 49.5, 9.0 points above the April reading of 40.5. US Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 53.2 this time.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:30. The US economy expanded its labor force by 280,000 jobs in May, exceeding market forecasts for a 222,000 addition. This is another sign that the economy is on the growth path again after contracting in the first three months of this year. The unemployment rate inched up to 5.5% from 5.4%, but the overall picture is encouraging. If the positive trend will continue, the Fed will be able to return to a normal monetary policy in the near future. The NFP report is expected to post a jobs addition of 231,000, while the unemployment rate is predicted to decline back to 5.4%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment assistance rose by 3,000 last week to 271,000, remaining in a positive territory. The reading was in line with market forecasts. The four-week moving average declined 3,250 reaching 273,750.That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
07-13-2015, 08:10 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook July 13-17
Greece continued dominating the news, and the week ends with some optimism, but nothing is certain.. The showdown for Greece, the ECB rate decision, US inflation, retail sales, Yellen’s testimony and various rate decisions all stand out as the main market movers on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week.


The Greek crisis further escalated with the clear NO vote in the Greek referendum. A recovery began as preparations were made for what seems as the real deadline: the EU Summit on Sunday. Pressure for debt restructuring mounted and eventually Greece submitted its proposals, which consisted of a capitulation on austerity but also a request for a longer plan, an investment plan and most importantly debt relief. The euro rallied but there are still doubts if a deal will be sealed. The safe haven yen enjoyed the crisis and so did the dollar, but they retreated when things seemed to improve.




Weekend talks on Greece: Eurogroup on Saturday and EU Summit on Sunday (could be cancelled) and tentative Eurogroup on Monday. As EU top official Donald Tusk described it, this may be the final deadline to reach a deal. With Greek austerity proposals basically bowing to the creditors’ demands, there is much optimism that a deal is indeed done. The Eurogroup’s blessing on Saturday could seal it. If not, there may be trouble. With an endorsement from France, the key remains in Merkel’s hands and the hot topic remains debt restructuring, as always. If she agrees, this would be a retreat for Germany, but if she refuses, Germany will find itself alone against France and the IMF (which will only sign a deal that consists of debt restructuring), showing that it only wanted Tsipras out and never negotiated in good will. Assuming a deal, we could get a small relief rally, as this is already priced in. If there is no deal, a big crash could occur.
UK inflation data: Monday, 8:30. Britain’s inflation rebounded in May, after turning negative in the prior month. Official figures showed prices increased 0.1% amid higher airfare and oil prices. The reading was in line with market forecast. Analysts expect inflation will remain weak in the coming months and will stay below the BOE’s goal of 2% until 2017. However, low prices and rising wages are beneficiary to household finances. UK’s inflation is expected to rise by 0.1% in June.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Monday, 9:00. German Economic Sentiment Index fell to 31.5 in June, following 41.9 posted in May. Analysts expected a higher reading of 37.5. The Current condition declined to 62.9 from 65.7 reported a month earlier. External factors as the Greek crisis were the main source of worry for German responders. Germany wishes to keep Greece on the euro zone to maintain the single currency, but there are other voices calling for a Grexit. Economics expect sentiment will deteriorate to 30.6.
US Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Americans increased their spending at retailers in May, buying more autos, clothes and building materials. Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.2% after a mere 0.2% advance in April, indicating the job market continues to improve increasing store sales. The reading was broadly in line with market forecast. Over the past 12 months, sales have gained 2.7%. Excluding automobiles, core retail rose a solid 1% in May while economists forecasted a 0.7% rise. If this trend continues, the Federal Reserve may raise rates in the near future. Retail sales is expected to rise 0.4%, while Core sales are forecasted to advance 0.7%.
Japan rate decision: Wednesday. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy in tact in its June meeting. The central bank will continue to expand the monetary base at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen and increase the frequency of its economic outlook reports to improve transparency. The recent slowdown in exports poses risks to economic growth, but Kuroda said that inflation remains on track with accordance to the BOJ’s target. The central bank chief reiterated that Japanese economy is recovering moderately.
UK employment data: Wednesday, 8:30. The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefits declined by 6,500 in May after contracting 7,800 in the previous month. Economists forecasted a bigger decline of minus 12,500. The unemployment rate remained at a seven-year low of 5.5% and wages increased at the fastest rate in four years. The number of unemployed fell 43,000 in the three months to April indicating UK’s labor market continues to improve. The number of unemployed in the UK is expected to decline by 9,300 in June.
US PPI: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. Producer Price Index edged up 0.5% in May, compared to minus 0.4% in April. Analysts expected a 0.4% rise. On an annual basis, headline inflation fell 1.1%. May’s rise resulted from a broad-based increase in energy prices. Analysts expect that higher pipeline inflation pressures could induce the Federal Reserve to hike rates in September. Producer Prices are expected to rise 0.2% this time.
Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its interest rate at 0.75%. The central Bank noted that inflation was in line with projections and consumer spending remains strong, but monetary policy will be re-examined in the coming months. Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz ascribes Canadian expansion to US economic growth, saying a strengthening American economy will provide a major boost for Canada. Goldman expects a dovish surprise.
Janet Yellen testifies: Wednesday, 14:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC, on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Yellen may speak about the reasons for the Fed’s decision to postpone the rate raise in June, and suggest a possible timeline for the first hike. The U.S. economy expanded a solid 2.4% in 2014, but the Fed’s latest prediction for 2015 shows weaker growth of 1.8% to 2%. Any talk about rate hikes will rock the markets. While a September hike has the best chances, a dovish stance can never be ruled with Yellen.
Eurozone rate decision: ECB rate decision: Thursday, 11:45 with the press conference at 12:30. The European Central Bank played a key role in the Greek crisis, basically forcing banks to shut down once negotiations broke down and Greece went to a referendum. This role will be questioned by reporters. For markets, perhaps the bigger focus is on plans regarding QE. Assuming a deal, will the ECB go all-in into Greek bonds? Will QE be expanded given the repercussions the crisis had on the continent? In addition, the assessment of the Bank on inflation and growth developments is also key, even though no forecasts are expected now.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. edged up 15,000 last week, reaching an adjusted 297,000. The reading was much higher than the 274,000 claims forecasted by analysts. The four-week moving average increased by 4,500 claims to 275,000. Continuing claims, rose by 69,000 claims to a seasonally adjusted 2.33 million. The unexpected rise can be attributed to layoffs in the auto industry. The number of claims is expected to reach 282,000 this week.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region have improved in June, rising from 6.7 in May to 15.2 in June. Analysts expected a modest rise to 8.1 points. The increase was across the board. New orders climbed to 15.2 in June from 4.0 in May. Paid sub index surged to 17.2 from minus 14.2 in May. However, the employment index fell to 3.8 from 6.7. The reading suggests higher growth in the second half of 2015. Manufacturing activity is expected to decline to12.1 this time.
US Building Permits: Friday, 12:30. U.S. building permits for home construction surged 11.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.28 million units. The nearly eight-year high reading suggests a positive trend in the housing sector as well as improvement in the broader economy. Policymakers viewed the housing sector as one of the weak spots in the US economy. More solid data came from retail sales and employment indicating the first-quarter’s soft patch is over. U.S. building permits is expected to reachv1.11 million in June.
US inflation data: Friday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices increased 0.4% in May, registering the largest increase in more than two years, amid rising gasoline prices. The rise marks the end of the oil crisis and the sluggish first quarter. The fed estimates inflation will rise over the summer enabling a rate hike in September. Meanwhile, core CPI excluding food and energy costs, inched 0.1%, the smallest gain in five months, after a 0.3% rise in April. On a yearly base, core CPI rose 1.7%, slowing from a yearly increase of 1.8% in April. CPI is expected to gain 0.3%, while core CPI is predicted to grow by 0.2%.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. Consumer confidence jumped to 96.1 in the final read in June . The rise in confidence was due to solid data released from the job market and consumer spending surged after wages grew and inflation remained low. Consumer confidence is expected to reach 96.7 in July. Higher confidence implies more retail sales, but the correlation is not always there.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
07-20-2015, 08:42 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook July 20-24
A Greek deal was finally reached, but it didn’t help the euro. In general, the dollar enjoyed broad gains. The upcoming week features housing figures in the US as well as important events for the antipodean currencies. Here are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on these main events.


An “aGreekment” was reached in the early hours of Monday with a Greek capitulation on austerity after Grexit was put on the table. We are seeing signs of a return to normality but with so much bad blood, nobody is really happy and the euro is lower. The crisis could take a break before making a comeback. Elsewhere, the dollar saw mixed numbers, with poor retail sales weighing. However, some better numbers and with a repeat of Yellen’s intention to raise rates this year, the dollar emerged as a winner especially against commodity currencies. USD/CAD touched 1.30, AUD/USD reached new lows despite OK Chinese GDP and NZD/USD fell below the post crisis low. The only currency that beat the dollar quite nicely is the pound, thanks to hawkish comments by Carney. What’s next? Let’s start:




Glenn Stevens speaks: Wednesday, 3:05. Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak in Sydney. He may talk about the recent RBA’s recent decision to maintain rates at 2% as well as their intention to provide further easing measures, to boost recovery including another rate cut. Australia’s economic growth was weaker than forecast but is expected to rebound in the next two years. Stevens stated the RBA will monitor data and act accordingly. Will Stevens hit the Aussie when it’s down?
Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. Sales of existing homes, aka second hand homes are the vast majority of the market. After reaching a level of 5.35 million (annualized) in May, another advance to 5.41 million is on the cards. The Fed watches the housing sector, which goes hand in hand with economic cycles.
New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. New Zealand central bank cut interest rates for the first time in four years, reaching 3.25% protect the export-reliant economy from deflation risks. Despite four successive rate increases ending in July 2014 and satisfactory annual growth of 3%, the Central Bank decided to cut rates as milk prices slid more than 50% and demand from China softened. Economists expect, at least one more cut before the end of the year.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number new applications for unemployment benefits declined more than expected last week, reaching 281,000. Economists expected an addition of 274,000 claims. The 15,000 decline indicates the US labor market is strong enough to support an interest rate hike this year despite a lingering weakness in the manufacturing sector. The four-week moving average of claims increased 3,250 to 282,500 last week. The four-week measure remained below the 300,000 line for the 16th straight week. The number of claims is expected to reach 285,000 this week.
Chinese Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:45. This independent measure of the Chinese economy could shed a better light on what’s going on there, after the positive GDP, which comes from the government. After a final score of 49.4 points in June, a small rise to 49.8 is expected, just below the 50 point mark separating growth from contraction.
New Home Sales: Friday, 14:00. While sales of new homes are only a small part of transactions, every sale has a wider impact on infrastructure and additional spending. After hitting a high of 546K back in May, a small slide to 541K is on the cards now.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
08-03-2015, 06:34 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook August 3-7
US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Rate decision in Japan, Employment data from New Zealand, Canada and the US, including the all-important NFP report. Join us as we explore this week’s market movers.

Last week the FOMC issued its rate statement reaffirming that the US economy continues to strengthen, leaving the door open for a possible interest rate hike in September. Policymakers noted the economy has rebounded from the slowdown, despite a downturn in the energy sector. The Fed also stated that the employment market saw solid gains in recent months, suggesting continued jobs growth. The Fed maintained its rates unchanged and noted the labor market needs to advance “some” more and inflation has to rise towards the 2% medium-term target, before the Fed decides to raise rates. Will we see a rate hike in September? Let’s start,




US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. advanced more than expected in June, reaching 53.5 compared to 52.8 posted in May. The positive reading was in line with the Fed’s plans to raise interest rate this year. The new orders index edged up to 56.0, from 55.8 in the prior month, while the employment index rose to 55.5 from 51.7 in May, showing stronger employment levels. Analysts expect PMI to reach 53.6 this time.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. Australia’s central bank left interest rates at a record low of 2% in July reflecting stability in monetary policy. The Central Bank stated that a lower currency was needed to help achieve balanced growth. Subdued spending as well as strong currency prevent achieving balanced growth. Furthermore the recent volatility in Chinese equity markets, could badly effect Australia’s economic outlook. No change in rates is expected now.
NZ employment data: Tuesday. 22:45. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates in July amid gloomy economic data. Inflation softened more than expected and the unemployment remained stubbornly high at 5.8%. Job growth also moderated, rising 0.7% in the first quarter adding 16,000 positions compared to 1.2% expansion in the last quarter of 2014. New Zealand employment market is expected to grow by 0.5%, while the Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.9%.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. U.S. private sector employment expanded at the fastest rate in six months with a 237,000 jobs addition in June. The strong employment market together with other promising economic data such as the rise in the housing sector, the improvement in consumer spending and the pick up in factory activity, show the US economy is back to solid growth, backing views that a rate hike is on the way. US jobs market is expected to add ,000 positions in July.
US Trade Balance: Wednesday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit widened in May amid weaker exports, reaching $41.9 billion from the $40.7 billion registered in the previous month. Economists expected a bigger deficit of $42.5 billion. Exports declined 0.8% due to lower demand for commercial aircraft and industrial equipment. However strong domestic demand increased imports mainly in automobiles. U.S. trade deficit is expected to grow further to 42.2 billion.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 12:30. ISM’s non-manufacturing report showed a solid gain in June, the composite index rose to 56.0 from 55.7 in May. New orders advanced to 58.3 compared to 57.9 in May. Export orders moderated but still remained over 50 at 52.0. Business activity edged up 2 points to 61.5, but employment slowed to 52.7 from 55 in May. Despite the positive rise, the PMI services index shows lack of growth at the end of the second quarter.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 6% in June, while the economy added 7,300 jobs. Economists expected the unemployment rate to rise to 6.1% and forecasted a 2,100 jobs contraction. The participation rate, which refers to the number of people either employed or are actively looking for work, remained steady at 64.8%. However, despite the positive readings, policymakers are concerned about the persistent rise in the unemployment rate following the crush of the mining sector. Australia’s economy is expected to gain10,100 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.1%.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England kept rates on hold for more than six years and is not expecting to raise them until next year. Economists see no reason to hike rates since inflation pressures are near record lows. However, Governor Mark Carney noted that inflation was expected to pick up markedly towards the end of the year. The Bank also left its monetary stimulus program, at £375 billion. The Bank of England is not expected to change rates this time.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number new claims for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week, reaffirms that the US labor market continues to strengthen. The number of jobless claims rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000. Analysts expected initial claims to reach 268,000. Meanwhile the four-week moving average declined by 3,750 claims to 274,750. Continuing jobless claims rose by 46,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2,26 million during the week ending July 18. The four-week moving average fell by 750 to 2,255,250. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 269,000 this week.
Japan rate decision: Friday. The central bank of Japan lowered its growth forecast for fiscal 2015 to 1.7% from an earlier estimate of 2.0%. Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda voiced his concerns over the slumping stock prices in China and its economic downturn effect on Japan. Chinese share prices tumbled more than 30% in a few weeks. Furthermore, Chinese economy has shifted its focus from exports to domestic demand, reducing trade volumes in Asia. The BOJ may have to downgrade its growth forecast once again if China’s economy slows further.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. The Canadian employment market contracted by 6,400 jobs in June amid losses in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate was maintained at 6.8%. Economists expected a higher loss of 9,000 jobs. Full time positions increased by a solid 64,800, however, part-time positions declined by 71,200 in June. The Central Bank cut rates by 0.25% in July after a former cut in January in an attempt to spur economic growth.
US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 12:30. US jobs report for June showed another modest growth of 223,000 positions, after a solid gain of 280,000. Economists expected a higher increase of 231,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.3% from 5.5% in May. June’s report is strong enough to support the Fed’s rate hike plan, indicating the labor market continues to expand. US labor market is expected to add 225,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 5.3%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
09-07-2015, 05:20 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook September 7-11
September began with more volatility and more uncertainty. Rate decisions in Canada; New Zealand and the UK, Employment data in Australia and US consumer sentiment all stand out. These are the main events on our calendar for this week. Join us as we explore these financial highlights.


The U.S. economy produced 173,000 jobs in August, falling short of estimates but with positive revisions and upbeat wage growth. The release came at a crucial timing of the rate-hike debate and the mixed report raised uncertainty, but we think the Fed could still bring on a “dovish hike”. In the euro-zone, things are far from quiet, with Draghi showing his will to act, weighing heavily on the euro. Commodity currencies couldn’t enjoy the Chinese holiday and were hit hard. Things are going to get messy again. Let’s start,




Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. Canada’s central bank decided to lower its benchmark interest rate to 0.5% in July. This was the second cut this year, aimed to boost the economy. The BOC reduced its growth estimate in 2015 from its April projection after showing a mild contraction the first half of the year. However, the Central Bank forecasts a rebound in the second half of 2015, expecting 1.9% growth this year. Analysts expect the BOC will maintain rates this time.
US JOLTS Job Openings: Wednesday, 14:00. Job opening are eyed by the Fed as they provide a wider indication about the job market, even if this figure is delayed. In June, the figure stood on 5.25 million, and a rise to 5.33 million is on the cards for July.
New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% in July, in hope of raising inflation and boosting economic activity. The rate cut was in line with market forecast. The Central Bank growth outlook deteriorated since the last policy meeting in June. However, the local currency has decreased noticeably since then, aiding manufacturers with weaker commodity export prices. Analysts expect further cuts in September and in October as the slowdown in China starts to affect New Zealand’s economy. Economists forecast another rate cut to 2.75% this month.
Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. The unemployment rate in Australia edged up 0.2% in July reaching 6.3%, despite a job creation of 38,500 positions in July. Analysts expected a smaller addition of 10,200 jobs and unemployment rate of 6.1%. The reason behind the sharp rise in unemployment was an increase in the participation rate, reaching 65.1%. The rise in the number of job seekers may contribute to jobs growth in the coming months, which is a good thing for the Australian economy. Analysts expect a job gain of 5,200 positions and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.2%.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England maintained interest rates at 0.5% in August despite one voting member calling to raise rates. Lack of inflationary pressures delayed the Central Bank’s decision to raise rates. However, Bank governor Mark Carney said a rise is “drawing closer”, but cannot “be predicted in advance”. The collapsing stock market in China and the talks over Greece’s debts painted a grim outlook of global growth, contributing to the Bank’s decision to postpone the rate hike. Nevertheless, the Bank expects inflation to return to target next year, rising 0.25% in the first four months and may double from 0.5% to 1% by the end of 2016. Analysts see not change in Carney’s monetary policy this time.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose last week by 12,000 to 282,000, exceeding forecasts of 273,000. However, the number of applications remain relatively low in time of a global slowdown. The four-week average increased 3,250 to 275,500. That average has fallen 9.2% over the past 12 months. The combination of steady job growth and low levels of applications suggests that the US economy will continue to expand in the coming months. Economists forecast the number of new claim will reach 279,000 this week.
US PPI: Friday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices in the US increased for a third straight month in July, rising 0.2% after a 0.4% gain in July. However, inflation pressures remained subdued against the backdrop of lower oil prices and a strong dollar. In the 12 months through July, the PPI declined 0.8% following 0.7% drop in June. It was the sixth straight 12-month decrease in the index. Producer prices are expected to decline by 0.1% in August.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence weakened for a second month in August, as households were more pessimistic the rate hike aftermath. The University of Michigan’s preliminary index of sentiment contracted to 92.9 from 93.1 in July. Economists expected a reading of 93.5. The global financial turmoil caused by China has yet to affect future sentiment reports. Americans forecast an inflation rate of 2.8% in the next 12 months, the same as in July, the report showed. Over the next five to 10 years, they anticipated a 2.7%, down from 2.8%. U.S. consumer sentiment is expected to dip further to 91.6.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
09-21-2015, 04:44 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Sep. 21-25


The dollar received a blow from the dovish Fed, but partially recovered. Apart from echoes from that all important decision, we have elections in Greece, Mario Draghi’s speech, US Durable goods orders, unemployment claims, GDP data and Janet Yellen’s speech. These are the main events for this week. Join us as we explore the market movers on Forex calendar.




Greek Parliamentary Election: Sunday. Former prime minister Alexis Tsipras resigned after seven months of his four-year term, following a strong protest from Syriza hardliners over the third bailout deal with Greece’s creditors, despite his announcement to end austerity. Tsipras announced a snap general election in hope of renewing his vote of confidence. The rebelling members formed a new party, Popular Unity, advocating Greece’s exit from Europe’s joint currency, but a recent poll shows the new party will not be able to get into Parliament. Syriza still leads the race, followed by the center-right New Democracy party. An absolute majority for either parties will be euro positive, while a hung parliament is euro negative.
Chinese Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:45. This independent and forward looking measure of the Chinese economy is very important for the world, especially as Yellen put an emphasis on the slowdown of the Chinese economy. After a final read of 47.3 points in August, the preliminary number for September is expected to tick up to 47.6, meaning it still remains in contraction territory, below the 50 point mark.
Mario Draghi speaks: Wednesday, 13:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee, in Brussels. After The European Central Bank cut its inflation and growth forecasts for 2015 and the following two years Draghi hinted that another QE could be implemented to stimulate economic activity if necessary. He also admitted that inflation could turn negative in the near future. Market volatility is expected.
German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 8:00. German business Sentiment improved in August to 108.3 from 108 in July, following a positive manufacturing data release. Economy shows continuous growth in Q2 with a 0.4% gain, following 0.3% expansion in the January-March period. Responders were more positive regarding the current situation. However, the companies were somewhat less optimistic regarding future business. Business confidence is expected to decline to 107.8 in September.
US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Orders for long-lasting manufactured goods continued to improve in July, rising for the second consecutive month. New orders edged up by 2.0%, to $241.1 billion in July, following a 4.1% gain in June. Economists expected a fall of 0.4% in orders. Meanwhile, Orders for manufactured goods, excluding transportation sector, gained 0.6% to $158 billion in July, after a downwardly revised increase of 0.6% in June. This positive release suggests continued growth in Q3. Durable goods orders is expected to contract 2.0%, while core orders are expected to gain 0.2%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment assistance fell unexpectedly last week by 11,000 to 264,000, indicating continued growth in the US labor market. The four-week moving average declined to 272,500 from 275,250 in the previous week. Continuing jobless claims dropped to 2.237 million from 2.263 million in the preceding week. The number of claims is forecasted to reach 268,000 this week.
Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 21:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the University of Massachusetts. She may refer to the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain rates and talk about a new timetable for the long awaited rate hike. Market volatility is expected as always. Yellen has kept quiet in the two months preceding the decision, but certainly had interesting things to say at the accompanying presser.
US GDP data: Friday, 12:30. The U.S. economy grew by 3.7% in Q2, according to the second publication. This release was a significant improvement in comparison to the initial publication and gave a boost to the greenback. In the third and final release, this figure is expected to be confirmed.


That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
09-28-2015, 12:44 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Sep 28-Oct 2
A turbulent week has seen the dollar dive but recover quite nicely. US Consumer Confidence, ADP jobs release, Canadian GDP, Janet Yellen’s speech, and a buildup to the highly important US monthly jobs report are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the market movers on Forex calendar.


The dollar suffered for while, on unimpressive durable goods orders. The pain was especially strong against the euro, that received only normal dovish words from Draghi. Yet the fate changed as Yellen surprised with a hawkish tone, stressing that a 2015 hike is certainly on the cards. The final GDP estimate for the second quarter in the US beat forecasts with a better than expected reading of 3.9% annual growth. Elsewhere, the Aussie struggled with another weak Chinese figure and USD/CAD reached an 11 year high, yet these commodity currencies recovered. Let’s start:




William Dudley speaks: Monday, 12:30. William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve will give an interview for the Wall Street Journal and talk about the rate hike issue and about inflation expectations. In his former talks, Dudley spoke against a rate rise in September amid international and financial market developments, but noted he hopes the Fed will still raise rates this year. Market volatility is expected.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence edged up in August, rebounding after a sharp fall in July. The Conference Board consumer confidence index increased to 101.5 from a revised 91.0 in the prior month mainly due to an improved view of the labor market. Current conditions were more favorable in terms of the job market viewing jobs as “plentiful” increased from 19.9% in July to 21.9% in August. Those who viewed jobs as “hard to get” decreased from 27.4% in July to 21.9% in August. Analysts believe the strong reading will support stronger consumer spending in the following months. US consumer confidence is expected to reach 96.2 this time.
US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. The U.S. private sector continued to increase the pace of hiring in August, despite global financial market turmoil. The ADP Report showed private payrolls increased 190,000 from 177,000 in July. The reading was below economists’ expectations but was in line with the growth trend of the first seven months of this year. Furthermore, strong data from manufacturing and domestic activity show a pick-up in economic activity. Economists expect ADP release will show a 191,000 job gain.
Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada’s economy expanded 0.5% in June, after a 0.2% contraction in the previous month. However, this positive reading could not offset the negative growth in the second quarter as a whole. On an annualized basis, the economy shrank 0.5% in the April-to-June period, following 0.8% annual pace contraction in the first three months of 2015. Policymakers were concerned about the possibility of a recession, but recent data suggests a growth trend in the third quarter. Canadian GDP for July is expected to reach 0.2%.
Janet Yellen speaks: Wednesday, 19:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak in St. Louis. Following the important Fed meeting in September where the Federal Reserve postponed the rate hike move, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. central bank is still prepared to raise interest rates this year for the first time in nearly a decade. Yellen said that recent inflationary weakness is temporary, caused by a strong dollar and low oil prices, which are likely to pass. She said U.S. economic prospects appear solid suggesting a rate hike is near. Market volatility is expected.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of applications for unemployment benefits, filed last week, rose less than expected, reaching 267,000, indicating the growth trend in the US economy continues. Economists expected the number of claims to reach 268,000. The four-week moving average dropped by 750 to the lowest level in more than a month, reaching 271,750. The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits was little changed at 2.24 million. The number of new claims is expected to rise to 273,000 this week.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at the slowest pace since May 2013, reaching 51.1 after posting 52.7 in July. New orders fell 4.8% to 51.7, also the lowest level since May 2013. The employment index declined to 51.2 from 52.7 in July. The weak employment reading indicates a mild slowdown in factory payroll gains in August. Economists expect manufacturing PMI to reach 51.3 in September.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. U.S. job growth moderated in August, but the unemployment rate declined to a near 7-1/2-year low while wages increased. Nonfarm payrolls increased 173,000 in August after an upwardly revised addition of 245,000 jobs in July. August’s increase was the smallest in five months amid job loss in the manufacturing sector. Despite the mixed report, the general trend remains positive indicating that the U.S. economy remains strong. Analysts expect a jobs gain of 202,000 in September with an unemployment rate of 5.1%. Monthly wages are expected to rise by 0.2%.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
10-06-2015, 09:29 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook October 5-9
The US dollar retreated on poor data. It’s down but not out. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Mario Draghi’s speech, rate decision in Japan, Australia and the UK and the important FOMC Meeting Minutes are the main events on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the market movers for this week.


The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for September was a big disappointment, showing a lukewarm job gain of 142,000 positions, far below the 201,000 reading forecast by analysts. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% due to a further deterioration in the labor force participation rate, plunging to 62.4%, the worse rate since October 1977. Furthermore, wages remained flat, indicating subdued inflationary pressures. The negative report cools expectations for a near-term rate hike. Will this downturn trend continue? Let’s start,




US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. The U.S. service sector expanded more than expected in August, showing a solid growth rate, but was weaker than July’s reading. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index declined to 59 in August from 60.3 in the prior month. July’s reading was the highest since 2008. The upbeat release indicates solid growth in the US domestic economy. The non-manufacturing purchasing managers index is expected to decline further to 58.0 this time.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 2% for the fourth month in a row, after a quarter of a percentage point cut performed in May. Market volatility in China and fears its negative economic effects were the main reason for maintaining rates unchanged. Most analysts expected the RBA to maintain its monetary policy until the end of the year. However, some economists said the RBA could cut the cash rate for the third time this year in November.
US Trade Balance: Tuesday, 12:30. The U.S. trade deficit contracted in July to $41.9 billion, its lowest level in five months, indicating the US economy continues to strengthen, despite a global growth slowdown. Economists expected the trade gap to reach $43.2 billion. Exports increased 0.4% to $188.5 billion, the first increase since April. Imports of consumer goods declined in July. U.S. trade deficit is expected to reach $42.2 billion.
Mario Draghi speaks: Tuesday, 17:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt. He may talk about the recent ECB downgrade of the Eurozone’s economic outlook as well as the continuous deterioration in inflation levels. Clues about further QE measures may be enclosed. Market volatility is expected. He sounded calm last time. Will he become more bearish?
Japan rate decision: Wednesday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy in September, admitting Japan’s economic growth was held back by the slowdown in emerging economies, but the BOJ believes advanced economies continue to grow at a moderate pace despite the slowdown of emerging economies. Therefore, the general growth trend remains positive. The BOJ will also expand the monetary base at about $667 billion a year to boost inflation. There is talk of action in October, but perhaps in the next meeting.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold in its September meeting. The Central Bank also lowered its estimate for the UK’s economic growth in the third quarter from 0.7% to 0.6%. Policy makers also claimed that the slowdown in Chinese economy and in emerging economies could badly affect UK’s economic growth. However, despite this, the MPC remained optimistic about the UK economy. A bank is expected to raise rates gradually starting from the first half of 2016.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 277,000 last week, but remained near 15-year lows. Economists expected the number of claims to reach 273,000. The four-week moving average declined 1,000 to 270,750. The total number of people receiving jobless benefits is 2.19 million. The labor market continues to strengthen hand in hand with economic growth. Analysts expect the number of jobless claims to reach 274,000 this week.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 18:00. Yellen and her colleagues refrained from hiking in September, and now we’ll get a better look about their thoughts, especially the expectations towards the December decision.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada labor market added an unexpected 12,000 jobs in August, while expected to contract by 4,800. However, the unemployment rate rose to a one-year high of 7% as the participation rate edged up to 65.9% from 65.7%. Overall, the rise in full-time work showed a positive improvement in the Canadian job market, which can offset the rise in the unemployment rate.
Stephen Poloz speaks: Saturday, 18:45. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz is due to speak at the Institute of International Finance, in Lima. In a recent speech, Polozs said he believes Canada will bounce back from oil plunge despite current hardships. Companies may scale back investment and production amid lower prices, but this will boost demand, which eventually will lead to a price increase.

Samirofi
10-12-2015, 02:47 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook October 12-16
The US dollar and the Japanese yen were on the back foot in a week which saw risk appetite. UK and US inflation data, UK and Australian employment data, US Retail sales and Consumer Sentiment stand out now. These are the main market movers on forex calendar. Join us as we explore the main events of this week.


The FOMC released the minutes from its crucial meeting in September, where the members decided to hold off raising the Federal funds rate. The policymakers acknowledged that the labor market has improved over the year, getting closer to their estimates of longer-run normal rates. Regarding inflation, FOMC members stated that subdued inflation will improve in the near term and would return to normal levels over the medium term. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said it was decided to hold off the rate hike in September but expects such a move later this year. Elsewhere, the rise of commodity prices certainly helped the commodity currencies shine, with oil pushing the loonie higher, copper helping the Aussie and milk helping the kiwi. The euro eventually joined the party and broke above downtrend resistance. Let’s start:




UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Inflation in the UK tumbled back to 0% in August due to a smaller rise in clothing prices and cheaper fuel prices. Oil prices declined to a six-and-a-half year low of around $42.50 per barrel. Meanwhile core inflation weakened to 1.0%, leaving no room for a rate hike in the near future. Analysts expect the Bank of England will start to raise interest rates in the first quarter of 2016. Inflation is expected to remain flat this time.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. German economic sentiment plunged in September to the lowest level in 10 months amid rising concerns over the growth outlook in emerging market economies, especially China. The index fell for the sixth straight month, to 12.1 in September from 25.0 in August. Economists forecasted a decline to 18.3. Current conditions remained positive, rising to 67.5 from 54.7, in the prior month. Analysts forecast economic sentiment will decline further to 6.8 in October.
UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:00. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits increased by 1,200 in August. The claimant count rate remained unchanged at 2.3%, its lowest rate since February 1975. Wages continued to rise, with pay excluding bonuses rising by 2.9% and pay including bonuses exceeded estimates rising by 2.9%. These encouraging figures may prompt the Bank of England to raise rates in the first quarter of 2016. The number of new unemployed is expected to decline by 2,300
US Retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Retail sales in the U.S. climbed 0.2% in August followed an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in July. Economists forecasted a 0.3% gain. However, despite the stock-market turmoil, consumers continued to spend their savings from cheap energy prices. Furthermore, the constant improvement in the employment market including wage rise have also boosted household spending. Retail sales excluding automobiles gained 0.1% in August after advancing 0.6% the prior month. Analysts expected a 0.2% rise. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% while core sales are predicted to decline by 0.1%.
US PPI: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices were flat in August, suggesting weak inflation pressures. Economists expected a negative reading of 0.1%. This reading followed a 0.2% gain in July. Lower crude oil prices continued to weigh on producer prices. In the 12 months through August, the PPI declined 0.8% after a similar decline in July. It was the seventh straight 12-month decrease in the index. Producer prices are expected to decline by 0.2% in September.
Australian Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. The Australian economy created 17,400 new jobs in August, exceeding forecasts of a 5,200 gain. The positive jobs gain reduced the number of unemployed by 14,400. Despite the month to month volatility, an addition of 60,000 positons was registered over the last three months, indicating a growth trend in the Australian labor market. Australian job market is expected to add 7,200 positions, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.2%.
US Inflation data: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. inflation pressures remain low, falling slightly more than expected in August. Consumer price index contracted 0.1% following July’s rise of 0.1%. Analysts expected a flat reading. On an annual basis, headline inflation remained positive, rising 0.2%, as in the prior month. Falling energy prices continues to lead the soft headline inflation data. Meanwhile, CPI excluding energy and food prices rose 0.1%, following July’s rise of 0.1%, in line with market forecast.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial applications for jobless benefits declined more than expected last week, reaching a near 42-year low 263,000 claims. The 13,000 decline provides a positive sign for the labor market after the lukewarm payrolls figure posted in the prior week. It was also the 31st straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, indicating a strong labor market. The four-week moving average of claims dropped 3,000 to 267,500. The number of US unemployment claims is expected to reach 269,000 this week.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Business activity in the manufacturing sector within the Philadelphia area lost momentum in September, falling into negative territory, reaching minus 6. The reading was far worse than initially expected and came after an 8.3 reading in August. However, despite the gloomy headline figure, the new orders index edged up to 9.4, from the previous reading of 5.8 and the employment index climbed to 10.2, from the August’s reading of 5.3. Economists believe September’s reading was sentiment driven showing a temporary setback. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to reach minus 1.8 in October.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to 87.2 in September following 91.9 in the previous month. This was the lowest reading in a year, suggesting moderate economic growth and mild inflation. Households expected weaker overseas growth would affect the U.S. economy. Current conditions as well as future outlook have also declined. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in October to 88.8.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
12-21-2015, 11:25 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook December 21-25
The Fed raised rates and the skies didn’t fall. The greenback strengthened against most currencies in the aftermath. US and Canadian GDP data, US Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment claims are the final highlights before Christmas break. Here is an outlook on these major events.


The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade showing faith in the U.S. economy. The central bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to between 0.25% and 0.50. Policy makers reiterated that the US economy is performing well and is expected to improve further. The labor market advanced considerably reaching an unemployment rate of 5%. Furthermore, inflation is expected to rise over the medium term towards the 2 % target. Fed officials declared that the rate hike was the beginning of a “gradual” tightening cycle. Let’s start,




US Final GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. The US economic growth was revised to the upside in the first revision, but still showed mediocre growth of 2.1% annualized. Economists expect GDP to rise 1.9% in the final read for the third quarter with higher hopes for Q4 that is just about to end.
Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy broke a three-month winning streak in September with a 0.5% GDP contraction. The energy sector weighed on output with a 5.5% decline in oil prices, raising concerns over growth in the last quarter of 2015. There were also declines in manufacturing, wholesale trade. Nevertheless, Canadian economy expanded in the third quarter posting a 2.3% growth rate on an annualized basis, following two straight quarters of contraction. However, economists do not expect such strong growth in the fourth quarter.
US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Orders for long-lasting products registered solid gain of 3.0% in October following two months of declines. Business investment was the major contributor with a 1.3% rise. Demand for commercial aircraft also increased. Meanwhile, core orders excluding transportation items rose by seasonally adjusted 0.5% in October, beating forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Durable orders are expected to decline 0.6%. while Core orders are predicted to rise 0.1%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week from a five-month high of 282,000 to 271,000, suggesting continued improvement in the US labor market. It was the 41st straight week that claims remained below 300,000. This reading backs the Fed rate hike decision made a day earlier. While claims tend to be volatile around the holiday session, the trend continued to point to a robust employment conditions. The four-week moving average of claims slipped 250 to 270,500 last week. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 270,000 this week.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
01-04-2016, 02:18 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook January 4-8
2016 begins with a busy calendar: Canadian employment data, US PMIs, Trade Balance, FOMC Meeting Minutes and employment data culminating with the Non-Farm Payrolls. In addition, liquidity is set to return after the holiday season. These are the highlights opening 2016. Join us as we explore these market-movers.


U.S. consumer confidence edged up to 96.5 from 92.6 in November, beating market forecasts. Current conditions improved from 110.9 to 115.3 and the Expectations Index improved to 83.9 from 80.4 in November. Overall, consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy remains positive. Meanwhile Jobless claims increased 20,000 during the holiday week due to temporary holiday factors. Economists expected a rise of 270,000. Analysts expect a slower pace of job market improvement in 2016 despite the low unemployment rate. Let’s start,




Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45. This independent report for the Chinese economy has worried investors during 2015, but did recover from the lows. After hitting 48.6 points in November, a rise to 48.9 is on the cards for December, still below the 50 point mark separating growth and contraction.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. The U.S. manufacturing activity plunged in November to its worst levels since June 2009, when the index of national factory activity declined to 48.6 crossing the 50 point line for the first time since November 2012. The previous reading was 50.5. Economists expected the index to rise to 50.6. The employment section rose to 51.3 from 47.6 in October, new orders fell to 48.9, lowest since August 2012 and the prices paid index fell to 35.5 from 39. A score of 49.1 points is expected now.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. Private sector employment increased by 217,000 jobs in November according to ADP Report. The reading topped market forecast and followed a 196,000 reading in the previous month. This was the strongest gains in the service sector since June. The increase was mainly driven by a rebound in professional/business service jobs. Job growth remains strong and the pace of job creation is twice that needed to absorb growth in the working age population. 193K is expected now.
US Trade Balance: Wednesday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit widened unexpectedly in October amid a fall in exports. The trade gap increased 3.4% to $43.9 billion, resulting from a stronger dollar. September’s trade deficit was revised up to $42.5 billion from the previously reported $40.8 billion. Economists had expected an improvement to $40.6 billion. Exports fell 1.4% to $184.1 billion, the lowest level since October 2012. Imports slipped 0.6% to $228.0 billion in October. A deficit of 44 billion is expected.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. The U.S. service sector reflected slower business activity in November. The Institute for Supply Management’s non manufacturing purchasing-managers index fell to 55.9 from 59.1 in October. Economists expected the index to fall to 58.1. However, despite this decline, November’s reading shows the resilience of the domestic services sector. Business activity, new orders and employment components fell by more than 4 points, but still posted readings above 55.
US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the historic rate hike decision. The statement showed a unanimous vote, but perhaps the wider array of members wasn’t in full agreement. It will be important to note the sentiment towards further rate hikes in 2016. Currently, 4 hikes are foreseen according to the dot plot, while markets expect far less activity. The Fed decided to put an emphasis on inflation, and we will also learn how worried they were at the time.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 20,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 287,000. The increase was larger than the 274,000 initially expected. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average increased by 4,500 claims to 272,500. Continuing jobless claims edged up by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2,198,000. A drop to 271K is predicted now.
Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. The Canadian economy shed nearly 36,000 jobs in November after a massive part-time workers hired for the October federal election were dismissed. The job losses, were four times larger than the 10,000 expected raising the unemployment rate to 7.1%, from 7% in October. While the economy lost 72,000 part time workers, it also gained 36,000 full-time employees, suggesting the picture is not as bad as it looks. A gain of 10.4K jobs and steady unemployment rate at 7.1% are predicted now.
US Non-Farm Employment Payrolls: Friday, 13:30. The last NFP report showed a 211,000 jobs gain in November, beating forecasts for a 201,000 increase, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 5%. The solid job gain was exactly what the Fed needed to make the call to raise rates on their December meeting. Wages increased 2.3% year-over-year in November a bit lower than the 2.5% rise posted in October showing a growth trend. A gain of 202K jobs is predicted with a steady unemployment rate of 5%. Wages are expected to rise 0.2% m/m once again. While no hike is expected in the January meeting, this feeds into the March decision.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
01-12-2016, 10:34 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook January 11-15
Markets began 2016 in a sour mood, and this resulted in a “risk off” sentiment”. US Crude Oil Inventories, Australian Employment data, UK rate decision, US Retail sales, Producer prices and Consumer sentiment stand out. These are the highlights of this week. Join us as we explore these forex market-movers.


The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a remarkable job creation of 292,000 during December closing out 2015 with a bang. The only disappointment was in wages, which actually fell slightly, but if job growth continues, wage gain should accelerate according to analysts. This did little to cheer investors, as worries about China, crashing oil prices and various geopolitical fears all triggered worries. This benefits the euro and the yen against the dollar while hurting all the rest. Will this continue? Let’s start:




US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. The weekly petroleum report showed U.S. commercial crude inventories contracted by 5.1 million barrels, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 482.3 million barrels. Economists estimated an increase of 700,000 barrels in crude inventories. Total gasoline inventories leaped by 10.6 million barrels last week, moving into the upper half of the five-year average range. WTI tumbled to lows seen in 2004, and this reflects worries not only about high supply, but also low demand.
Australia Employment data: Thursday, 0:30. Australia’s unemployment rate declined to 5.8% in November, amid a whopping job gain of 71,400 positions. The unemployment rate reached a 20 month low. The reading was contrary to analysts’ expectations predicting a loss of 10,000 jobs. The participation rate rose to 65.3% from 65% in October. Full-time employment increased by 41,600, and the number of part-time jobs rose by 29,700. The employment figures showed the strongest two-month period of jobs growth since December 1987 and January 1988. Australian economy is expected to shed 10,300 jobs in December while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.9%.
UK Rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England maintained interest rates at 0.5% amid expectations that inflation will remain subdued after another sharp drop in the oil price and a levelling off in wage growth. Policymakers estimated domestic demand has remained unchanged in November. The central bank noted the UK policy depends only on the inflation outlook and will not be influenced by other central banks actions.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined to 277,000 from more than a five-month high of 287,000. The reading suggests the labor market remains firm despite signs of weakness in economic growth during the fourth quarter. Analysts expected claims to reach 274,000. The four-week moving average of claims dropped 1,250 to 275,750 last week. The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims fell 4,000 to 2.22 million. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 278,000 this week.
US Retail sales: Friday, 13:30. Retail sales increased 0.2% in November after rising 0.1% in the previous month. The reading was in line with market forecast. However, automobile sales were weak falling 0.4% following a 0.3% decline in the prior month. Excluding vehicles, core sales rose a very solid 0.4% beating forecast for a 0.3% rise. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, slowed in September and October. The weakness came despite a tightening labor market, which has started to lift household income.
US PPI: Friday, 13:30. U.S. producer prices edged up 0.3% in November, despite the moderate inflation trend. The reading followed a 0.4% decline in October. Economists forecasted a flat reading. Excluding food and energy categories, core prices increased 0.3% while analysts expected a 0.2% gain. Overall producer prices were down 1.1% in November from a year earlier, the 10th straight year-over-year decline. Core prices were up 0.5% from last year.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00. The University of Michigan’s final reading of December’s consumer sentiment came in at 92.6, higher than a first reading of 91.8 reaching its highest level since July this year. Consumers were more optimistic over their current conditions due to lower inflation, which increased real incomes, however, consumers were less confident about their future situation. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the next year decreased slightly.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
01-25-2016, 01:17 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook Jan. 25-29
Market mood before it became better in a very busy week. Will the Fed and the BOJ go dovish? Apart from these rate decisions, we have GDP data from the US and the UK as well as other key releases . These are the main events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the main highlights coming our way.


Worries about Chinese growth and further falls in oil dominated the scene during the week, with a strengthening yen and weaker commodity currencies. For the yen, things turned around on speculation for BOJ action and for the pound, things worsened when Carney came out in a very dovish manner. The euro dropped on Draghi’s dovishness while the Canadian dollar escaped the abyss as the BOC refrained from further stimulus. The mood is improving on promises for central bank action. Will the Fed lend some support as well? Let’s start:




German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German business sentiment declined slightly in December, falling to 108.7 compared to 109 posted in November going below analysts’ predictions of 109.2. The current conditions section reached 112.8, lower than the 113.4 points booked in November amid weakness in external conditions. The outlook index remained unchanged at 104.7, a bit lower than the 105 estimated by economists. However, the German economy continued to grow in the third quarter amid robust domestic consumption, while the ongoing immigration wave also provided a little boost. Business climate is expected to decline further to 108.5 this time.
Draghi speaks: Monday, 18:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Frankfurt. He may speak about the ECB decision to see a darker picture and may reveal clues about the chances for a change in the monetary policy at the next meeting in March. Market volatility is expected. His words impact not only the euro, but as we’ve seen, the whole market.
Carney speaks: Tuesday, 10:45. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in London about the Financial Stability Report. He may explain his objection to raise interest rates despite the Federal reserve move on December 2015. Market volatility is expected. Any mention about the EU referendum and its implications could also move markets.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. American consumer confidence rose in December amid improving labor market conditions. The index increased to 96.5 in from 92.6 in the previous month, beating expectations for a 93.9 reading. Both present conditions and the 6- month outlook improved. The US economy expanded 2% in the third quarter, also expecting a similar reading for the final quarter. Job growth averaged 210,000 in 2015 pushing the jobless rate down to 5% in November. Consumer confidence is forecasted to reach 96.6 in Janyary.
Australia inflation data: Wednesday, 0:30. Australian inflation increased 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, lower than the 0.7% rise predicted by analysts. The lower than expected rate was one of the main reasons for the rate cut in December. The weak inflation data “was broad-based, except for housing-related items. The weakening in underlying inflation may lead to further cuts in the near future. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.3% this time. This is key to the RBA decision in the following week, and will be watched by other central banks.
US rate decision: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve took the plunge and raised its key interest rate from a range of 0% to 0.25% to a range of 0.25% to 0.5% on its December meeting. The raise affected investors, home buyers and savers. The increase was widely anticipated as the US economy continued to improve making a full recovery from the Great Recession. The Fed noted that future rate hikes will be gradual to avoid killing the economic recovery. No change is expected now and also the implied probability for a move in March looks slim. The big question is: will the Fed acknowledge the recent weakness and hint on a hiatus in rate hikes, joining the other dovish central banks.
NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:45. The central bank of New Zealand cut its benchmark rate for the fourth time since June 2015 on its December meeting, unwinding former increases. Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler noted that the economy weakened due to lower diary prices and rising unemployment following a surge in the number of immigrants. Inflation remained below the Bank’s target of 1%-3%, but Wheeler expects export prices to strengthen in 2016 raising inflation to the middle target range.
UK GDP data: Thursday, 9:30. The UK economy eased its expansion rate to 0.4% in the third quarter according to the final read. The Service sector gave its best performance in nearly a year with growth of 0.7%. Construction output fell by more than 2% while industry contracted for a third consecutive quarter. The mild increase suggests the BoE will not be in a hurry to raise rates any time soon. However some economists claim the slowdown in the third quarter is not enough to hamper rate hikes in mid-2016. Economists expect GDP to rise 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 13:30. Orders for long lasting factory goods remained unchanged in November. Economists expected orders would decline 0.6%. Business investment plans fell in November. The strong dollar continued to weigh on manufacturing and spending cuts in the energy sector showed little sign of abating. Meanwhile core orders excluding transportation items declined 0.1% while expected to rise 0.1% in November. Durable Goods Orders is predicted to decline 0.7% in December, while Core orders are expected to remain flat.
US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 293,000 last week, suggesting a setback in the labor market amid economic slowdown and major stock market selloff. The 10,000 rise was contrary to analysts’ expectations, predicting a drop to 279,000. Although layoffs have picked up in recent weeks, it does not necessarily suggest a downward trend but might be attributed to seasonally adjustments. The four-week moving average of claims increased 6,500 to 285,000 last week. The number of new claims is expected to reach 281,000 this week.
Japan rate decision: Friday. The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary stimulus target in December but decided on operational changes for its purchases of government bonds, exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts. Governor Haruhiko Kurodasaid the changes were designed to make it easier for the BOJ to maintain the current policy and didn’t constitute additional easing. However, Kuroda reaffirmed that he wouldn’t hesitate to adjust monetary policy if needed. The Japanese currency has lost about 30% of its value against the dollar despite calls for companies increase their investments. Recent hints from both the central bank and the government talked about more stimulus. Japan certainly does not like the strength of the yen against the dollar, the yuan and even the euro.
Canadian GDP data: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economic output remained unchanged in October after contracting 0.5% in September. Mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction expanded as well as the public sector, while manufacturing, utilities and retail trade offset this expansion, suggesting the Canadian economy weakened in 2015. Economists forecasted an expansion of 0.2%. Analysts also expect flat growth in the fourth quarter.
US GDP data: Friday, 13:30. U.S. economy expanded at a pace of 2% annually according to the final read for Q3. Businesses gained $56.8 billion worth of inventory in the third quarter, the smallest since the first quarter of 2014 and down sharply from $113.5 billion in the April-June period. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 3.2% after expanding at a 3.6% in the second quarter indicating solid domestic demand. Analysts expect GDP to reach 0.8% in the fourth quarter. It is important to note that the Fed may already have the data before we do.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
All times are GMT.

Samirofi
02-01-2016, 02:32 PM
Forex Weekly Outlook February 1-5
The month and the week ended with quite a bit of volatility. Will it continue in February? Rate decisions in Australia and the UK, Employment data from New Zealand, Canada and the US, including the all-important NFP release, stand out. These are the main highlights for this week. Here is an outlook on these important events.


Last week the U.S. Federal reserve acknowledged at the end of its two-day meeting that the U.S. economy lost momentum at the final month of 2015, despite the continued growth in the labor market. The Fed did not change its plans to continue raising rates in 2016, but cooled expectations for a close by rate hike. The fall in oil prices and weak global markets continue to concern the Fed. Many economists believe it would not be realistic to expect four rate hikes in 2016 as indicated by the Central Bank. What do you think? Let’s start:




Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday,1:45. This independent measure of the Chinese economy caused worries in recent months as it reflected contraction. even after rising from the lows. A score of 48.1 is expected to follow 48.2 seen last month.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. The manufacturing PMI continued its contraction in December after a disappointing reading of 48.6 in the previous month. This was the lowest reading since July 2009 with declines across the board. The New Orders Index increased 0.3 points reaching 49.2. The Production Index registered 49.8% from 49.2% in November. The Employment Index declined 3.2 to 48.1. The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain at 48.6 this time.
Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the official cash rate at 2.0% on its December meeting. Governor Glenn Stevens noted a certain improvement in economic conditions, but the outlook for may require further monetary easing. Stevens said he is willing to cut rates if economic data worsens. With recent inflation figures beating expectations, no cut is on the cards.
NZ Employment data: Tuesday, 21:44. New Zealand employment market unexpectedly contracted for the first time in three years in the third quarter, mainly due to a decline in part-time workers. Employment fell 0.4% after rising 0.3% in the previous quarter. Economists expected employment to grow 0.4% in the third quarter. Furthermore, the unemployment rate increased to 6% from 5.9 in the second quarter. Economists expect New Zealand’s labor market to expand by 0.8% while the unemployment is predicted to rise to 6.1%.
US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 13:15. US private sector employment expanded by 257,000 jobs in December according to the ADP report. The reading pointed to underlying strength in the economy and followed a 211,000 gain in the previous month. Labor market strength suggests the economy’s condition remains solid, and may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in March. US private sector is expected to gain 191,000 in January.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. US service sector expanded less than expected in December with the slowest growth pace in almost two years. The index declined to 55.3 from 55.9 in November, missing market forecast for a reading of 56.0. The New Orders Index posted 58.2, rising 0.7 points; the Employment Index increased 0.7 points to 55.7, while the Prices Index declined 0.6 points from November. However the majority of respondents’ comments remain positive about business conditions and the overall economy. US service sector activity is expected to decline to 55.2.
UK Rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England maintained interest rates in January amid volatility in global markets and a continuous fall in oil prices slowing inflation even further. Only Ian McCafferty voted for a rise to 0.75%. MPC members believed “the outlook remained unchanged from the previous economic forecasts in November. But the minutes also noted the volatility on financial markets, and in share prices in particular. Furthermore, the MPC highlighted a 40% fall in the oil price which would badly affect inflation growth.
Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 12:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak about the Inflation Report, in London. Carney said at a speech in London that the Bank of England should not begin raising interest rates in the coming months, stating the weak condition of the global economy and the slowed growth in the UK. He also said that the MPC will watch for signs of renewed downturn in inflationary pressures before offering another round of monetary easing.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new US claims for unemployment benefits declined last week from a six-month high of 294,000 to 278,000, reaffirming the strength of the US labor market. Economists forecasted a drop to 282,000 in the latest week. The four-week moving average is now 23,750 above its post-recession low of 259.250 from last October. The number of new claims is expected to be 286,000 this week.
Canadian Employment data: Friday, 13:30. The Canadian labor market expanded unexpectedly in December adding 22,800 jobs, amid a large gain in part-time work. The number of full-time employment actually declined in December by 6,400 while the economy added 29,200 part-time jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.1%. The overall picture is less appealing; indicating hiring in the private sector is weak. The 2015 employment growth rate was slightly stronger than in 2014 and 2013, when the overall number of jobs expanded by just 0.7% in each of those years.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 13:30. U.S. payrolls surged in December by 292,000 following 252,000 in the previous month. Hiring got a boost from unseasonably warm weather and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a 7-1/2-year low of 5%. The firm employment data indicates the economy sustains growth while the recent weakness could be attributed to the manufacturing and export-oriented sectors. U.S. payrolls for October and November were revised up to show 50,000 more jobs created than previously reported, adding to the report’s upbeat tone. US private sector is expected to expand by 192,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is estimated to remain at 5%.
US Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. US trade deficit contracted in November to a nine-month low of $42.4 billion as a sharp decline in imports outweighed a decline in exports. However, the overall picture shows both exports and imports are now falling due to the dollar’s strength and the weakness in global economy. Exports fell 0.9% to US$182.2 billion, more than a four-year low. US trade deficit is predicted to inch up to $42.8 billion in December.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.

Samirofi
02-09-2016, 11:15 AM
Forex Weekly Outlook Feb. 8-12
The dollar was beaten in the first week of January and staged only a small recovery. Janet Yellen’s testimony stands out, but also watch out for retail sales and consumer sentiment. These are the main market movers for this week. Here is an outlook on the main events on forex calendar.


The poor ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI showing a significant slowdown in America’s largest sector hit the dollar hard. Dovishness from Draghi and from Carney could not stop the dollar’s fall at first. A mixed jobs report eventually provided some relief: while the headline showed lower than expected monthly job gains at 151K, the unemployment rate declined to 4.9% from 5% and wages grew significantly in January, rising 2.5%. Despite the poor headline employment number, analysts emphasize the positive sides to this report, saying the payroll figure doesn’t change the fact that they’ve been growing at a solid pace recently. Will the US economy pull out of its soft patch in the coming weeks? Let’s start:




US JOLTs: Tuesday, 15:00. While this jobs-related report is lagging (it is for December in this case), the Fed watches it closely for long-term developments. The number of job openings is expected to advance from 5.43 to 5.54 million. Also note the number of quits: more quits mean more confidence in the labor market.
Janet Yellen speaks: Wednesday and Thursday at 15:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Yellen may explain the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged on its January meeting and may offer clues about possible timing for the next hike. The weakness overseas in China, Japan and Europe raised concerns about their effects on US economic outlook. Therefore, policy makers decided to wait and let the storm pass before raising rates again.
US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. U.S. crude oil inventories surged more than expected last week. Inventories edged up 7.8 million barrels to 502.7 million barrels beating analysts’ expectations for an increase of 4.8 million barrels. Economists expect this growth trend to continue.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims increased unexpectedly last week by 8,000 to 285,000 as more Americans sought unemployment benefits. However, the reading still suggest that employers are still eager to hire since the number of claims stayed below the 300,000 threshold. The four-week moving average of claims rose 2,000 to 284,750 last week. Economists had forecast claims rising to 280,000. US jobless claims are expected to reach 287,000 this week.
Glenn Stevens speaks: Thursday, 22:30. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens testifies before the House Representatives in Sydney. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at its last cash rate meeting last week. Concerns over the global economy especially in China, one of its main trading partners, caused a further decline in Australia’s terms of trade. However, Australia’s domestic economy has improved in 2015 business conditions advanced above average levels, employment growth picked up and the unemployment rate declined.
US Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. US retail sales declined in December by 0.1%, the weakest reading since 2009, raising concern about the pace of consumer spending in 2016. The release was in line with market forecast. In 2015, sales climbed 2.1%, the smallest advance of the current economic expansion. Weaker sales in electronics stores, clothing merchants and grocers, indicate Americans preferred to increase their savings despite the constant improvement in the labor market. Core sakes, excluding automobiles also contracted by 0.1% while expected to climb 0.2%. Economists expect retail sales will rise 0.1%, while core sales will remain flat.
US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:30. Consumer confidence surged in January to the highest level in seven months, reaching 93.3, following 92.6 in December. The reading suggests low inflation had a favorable impact on households, whose outlook for wage gains remained subdued. Economists expected a reading of 92.7. The current conditions index dropped to 105.1 from the prior month’s 108.1, while the six month outlook edged up to 85.7, the highest since June, from 82.7. Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 92.6 this time.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.