OIL

[Samirofi]

Crude Oil builds intraday support base 12/08/2013



Crude oil price trading settles above the EMA50, which allows the price to get an intraday support base that supports achieving positive trading in the upcoming period, as its main target is testing the bullish channel’s resistance at 109.00

Stochastic approaches from providing positive overlapping signal that supports the waited rise, which remains valid unless achieving clear break and stability below 105.40

Expected trading range for today is between 105.00 support and 109.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

[Samirofi]

Crude Oil keeps the positive stability 13/08/2013



Crude oil price’s trading settles above the EMA50 which acts as support at 105.50, keeping the chances valid to achieve yesterday’s expected intraday bullish trend, where we are waiting for a visit to the bullish channel’s resistance at 109.20

Stochastic provides positive signals that support the waited rise, which remains valid conditioned by holding above 105.50

Expected trading range for today is between 105.00 support and 109.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

[Samirofi]

Crude Oil reinforces the intraday bullish wave 15/08/2013



Crude oil price attempts to confirm breaching 107.00 level, as trading settles above this level from the opening of today’s actions, which supports the continuation of the bullish trend, and the main target is to test the upside channel’s resistance at 109.45

The price gets good support from the EMA50, while the bullish bias remains valid conditioned by stability above 105.95

Expected trading range for today is between 105.95 support and 109.45 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

[Samirofi]

Oil Weekly Outlook for August 19-23


Oil prices (WTI and Brent) continued their recovery and rose during the week: WTI rose by 1.41%; Brent oil, by 2.73%. As a result, the premium of Brent oil over WTI slightly expanded; the premium ranged between $2.86 and $3.78. According to the latest EIA weekly report, oil stockpiles fell by 1.8Mb. In the U.S, imports and production increased again while refinery inputs fell during last week. Will oil continue its upward trend next week? This week, several reports may affect the oil market. These items include: China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S housing data, and EIA oil weekly report.


Here is a weekly projection and analysis for the crude oil market for August 19^th to August 23^rd:


Oil Prices – August

During last week, crude oil price (WTI) increased by 1.41% and reached by Friday $107.46/b; further, Brent oil also rose by 2.73% to $111.17/b;

In the chart below are the changes in WTI and Brent oil prices in the past several months (prices are normalized to January 31st). As seen in the chart herein, the oil slightly rose during the month.



Premium of Brent over WTI – August

The difference between Brent and WTI oilrose last week as it ranged between $2.86 and $3.78 per barrel. Moreover, during the week, the premium rose by 64.89%.



Oil Stockpiles – Fell by 1.8Mb



The oil stockpiles declined by 1.8 MB and reached 1,816.1 million barrels. The linear correlation between the shifts in stockpiles has remained stable at -0.206: this correlation suggests that oil price, assuming all things equal, will rise next week.
Oil imports to the U.S rose again by 0.7% last week. The weekly shifts in oil imports have a mid-strong negative correlation (-0.296) that implies oil price may decline next week. Moreover, oil production also rose; refinery inputs fell by 1% last week. In total, the rise in production and imports might keep loosening the U.S oil market. The next weekly update will be published on Wednesday, August 21stand will pertain to the week ending on August 16th.

Egypt Riots and Oil

The escalation in Egypt could be among the factors contributing to the rising oil price. The main issue will continue to be around the potential blockage of the Suez Canal, in which nearly 3.8 million barrels per day transport through it. Keep in mind, in 2011 Arab spring that also erupted in Egypt, the Suez Canal remained open. Therefore, the current turmoil in Egypt are less likely to affect the shipment of oil via the Suez Canal in the near future.

Oil Related News for the Week

Wednesday – U.S. Existing Home Sales: In the recent report regarding June 2013 the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million houses; if this trend will persist, it might affect the U.S dollar;

Thursday – China flash Manufacturing PMI: In the latest HSBC Manufacturing PMI survey referring to July 2013 the Manufacturing PMI fell again to 47.7; this index indicates China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting at a slightly faster rate than in June;

Thursday – Flash German Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly report regarding July 2013, the German PMI rose to 50.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are expanding after they had contracted a month earlier. This report serves as an indicator to the economic development of the Euro Area’s leading economies’ manufacturing conditions;

Oil Price Outlook and Breakdown

From the supply side, the rise in production and imports could curb down the rally of oil price. Conversely, the decline in refinery inputs may positively affect oil price. The U.S oil storage changed direction and fell; this serves as another indication for a moderate fall in supply or a rise in demand, which could suggest that the U.S. oil market has slightly tightened. The escalation in the Middle East mainly in Egypt could keep the price of oil from falling. From the demand side, the upcoming reports including U.S housing data, China’s manufacturing PMI and Germany’s manufacturing PMI could signal the potential growth in demand for oil in U.S, China and Europe. If these reports will positively surprise the current market expectations, they could positively affect the price of oil. Finally, despite the slight rise in the premium of Brent over WTI, it is likely to remain under $5.

The bottom line, on a weekly scale I guess oil price might remain at its current level and won’t change by much from last week.

[Samirofi]

Crude Oil continues to fluctuate 19/08/2013



Crude oil price continues the sideways fluctuation settling above the EMA50, and that makes us continue in preferring the bullish trend which targets the bullish channel’s resistance at 109.75

Note that breaking 106.30 will turn the intraday trading towards the downside, and the first expected targets at 104.90

Expected trading range for today is between 106.30 support and 109.75 resistance.


Expected trend for today: Bullish

[Samirofi]

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Report 19-23/8/2013



WTI Crude Oil is approaching the top of the recent sideways range as shown on the daily chart above, a break above this range at 108.90 is required this week to confirm further upside, and accordingly, we prefer to be neutral with the start of the week.

** Short term (Less than three months)

** Chart is based on GMT+2 timing



Notes:
*if price reaches within 20% from target before triggering entry, signal is canceled and not valid anymore.
*Allow for +,- 5 points margin

[Samirofi]

Crude Oil tests the moving average 20/08/2013



Crude oil price is fluctuating at the EMA50 which acts as an intraday support at 106.45, this support protects our bullish trend expectations, where we still suggest witnessing positive trading, mainly targeting 109.80

You should be aware that breaking below 106.45 will open the way towards the downside to test levels that begin at 102.65


Expected trading range for today is between 106.00 support and 109.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish

[Samirofi]

Oil Weekly Outlook for August 26-30

Oil prices (WTI and Brent) didn’t do much last week: WTI inched down by 0.12%; Brent oil fell by 0.97%. As a result, the premium of Brent oil over WTI slightly expanded again; the premium ranged between $2.80 and $5.96. Based on the recent EIA weekly update, oil stockpiles decreased again by 2.8Mb. In the U.S, imports, production and refinery inputs declined during last week. Will oil resume its rally next week? This week, several reports may affect the oil market. These items include: China’s manufacturing PMI, U.S GDP, U.S core durable goods, and EIA oil weekly report.


Here is a weekly projection and analysis for the crude oil market for August 26^th to August 30^th:

Oil Prices – August

During the previous week, crude oil price (WTI) inched down by 0.12% and reached by Friday $106.42/b; further, Brent oil also declined by 0.97% to $111.04/b;

In the chart below are the changes in WTI and Brent oil prices in recent months (prices are normalized to January 31st). As seen in the chart herein, the oil slightly increased during the month.



Premium of Brent over WTI – August

The gap between Brent and WTI oil rose last week as it ranged between $2.80 and $5.96 per barrel. Moreover, during the week, the premium grew by 73.03%.

Oil Stockpiles – Declined by 2.8Mb

The oil stockpiles declined by 2.8 MB and reached 1,813.28 million barrels. The linear correlation between the changes in stockpiles has remained stable at -0.216: this correlation suggests that oil price, assuming all things equal, will increase next week.



Oil imports to the U.S fell by 0.2% last week. The weekly changes in oil imports have a mid-strong negative correlation (-0.274) that implies oil price may rise next week. Moreover, oil production also fell; refinery inputs decreased by 0.3% last week. In total, the drop in production and imports might tighten the U.S oil market.

The next weekly update will be published on Wednesday, August 29thand will pertain to the week ending on August 23rd.

Egypt Riots and Oil

The ongoing turmoil in Egypt may keep oil price from falling. The main issue will keep revolving around the potential blockage of the Suez Canal, in which nearly 3.8 million barrels per day transport through it. Keep in mind, in 2011 Arab spring that also erupted in Egypt, the Suez Canal remained open.

Oil Related News for the Week

Monday – U.S Core Durable Goods: As of June 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $496.7 billion; if this report will show another increase in new orders then it could pull up oil prices;

Thursday – Second U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP rose by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2013. If the growth rate for the second quarter will be revised by a large margin, this could affect crude oil prices;

Friday – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s report regarding July 2013 the Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding at a slightly faster pace; in the latest flash PMI report, the index rose to above the 50 point market. If in the upcoming report the PMI will keep rising, it could signal growth in China’s economic development. If the index will rise, this may positively affect leading commodities prices.

Oil Price Forecast and Breakdown

From the supply standpoint, the decline in production, imports and refinery inputs could pressure up oil price. The U.S oil storage declined again; this serves as an indication for the decline in supply or an increase in demand; this, in turn, may suggest the U.S oil market has slightly tightened again. The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East mainly in Egypt could keep the price of oil from further declining. From the demand side, the upcoming reports including U.S GDP, core durable goods and China’s manufacturing PMI could signal the potential growth in demand for oil in U.S and China. If these reports will positively surprise the current market expectations, they could positively affect the price of oil. Finally, despite the slight increase in the premium of Brent over WTI, it is likely to remain around $5.

The bottom line, on a weekly scale I guess oil price might remain at its current level and won’t change during the week.

[Samirofi]

Crude Oil negotiates the resistance 13/09/2013



Crude oil price showed positive trading and settled at the sideways range resistance at 108.75, after an attempt to breach this level yesterday, which keeps the sideways trading scenario valid until now, this range borders represented by 108.75 resistance and 106.00 support.


We remind you that breaching above 108.75 will open the way to target 112.00 areas initially, while breaking 106.00 will push the price towards the most important support at 102.65

Expected trading range for today is between 106.00 support and 110.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Sideways

[PCMAnalyst]

The price is fluctuating in a bullish channel in the H4 TF. As long as it is staying inside this area, buying on lower and selling on upper channel strategy could be more risk appetite.