Currencies

[PCM]

All Currencies Upcoming News will be posted in this section

[Amir]

• BoE's (BANK OF ENGLAND) Governor King Speech

Speaker BOE Governor Mervyn King

Live Speach Time 09:30 AM GMT

Impact : High

The BoE Chairman Mervyn King head of BOE’s Monetary policy Committee (MPC) which controls interest rates.

King has more influence over nation’s currency value than any other person.
As he gives a press conference as to how the BoE observes the current UK economy and the value of the GBP.

Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to subtle clues regarding future monetary policy

His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

If he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP,

While a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP.

[Amir]

• Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)

News release Time 12:30 PM GMT

Actual : - Forecast : 2.4 Previous : 2.4

Impact : HIGH

The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis .
It shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time.
It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing.
It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health

While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4).
The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected.
There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final.
The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive / bullish for the USD,

While a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative / bearish for the USD.

[Amir]

Unemployment Rate s.a.

News release Time 07:55 AM GMT

Actual : - Forecast :6.9 Previous :6.9

Impact : High

The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur für Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany.
A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which encourages economic growth.

Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive / bullish for the EUR,

While a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative / bearish for the EUR.

[Amir]

Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

News release Time 08:30 AM GMT

Actual : - Forecast :0.6 Previous :0.6

Impact : High

The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK.
The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity.

An indicator for broad overall growth in the United Kingdom. Robust UK GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency.
Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates.
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive / bullish for the GBP,
While a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative / bearish for the GBP.

The Previous is from the Second Estimate release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected.
There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Preliminary, Second Estimate, and Final.
The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;

[Amir]

Currency: CAD

• GDP (MoM)

News release Time 04:30 PM GMT	Actual : - Forecast :0.1 Previous :0.2	Impact : High

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada.
The GDP measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
Canada releases fresh GDP data on a monthly basis.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive / bullish for the CAD.

while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative / bearish for the CAD.

[Amir]

1. EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (JUN A)

News release Time 13.00 PM Dubai Time 09:00 AM GMT

Actual : - Forecast : 1.5 Previous : 1.4

Impact : High

The Euro Zone CPI (Consumer Price Index) released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services.
The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.
Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR,

While a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR.


2. USA’s ISM Manufacturing (JUN)

News release Time 18.00 PM Dubai Time 14:00 PM GMT

Actual : - Forecast : 50.5 Previous : 49.5

Impact : High

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector
It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US.
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;

A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD,

Whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish) for the USD.

[Raam]

EUR/AUD HOVERING ABOVE 1.4200

With all major data coming out of China already published for the Asia-Pacific session, EUR/AUD cross is last trading at 1.4205 off fresh session lows at 1.4189, printed on the back of Aussie strength, that has posted session highs above 0.9175 USD following better than expected China PMI's.

Still higher year to date

The cross is still up 11.9% year to date, and +15.75% higher in last 3 months, despite being now in the negative for the week so far, following an early 1-week high at 1.4289 printed in the interbank pre-market. The RBA will be meeting tomorrow, while the ECB will do so on Thursday, with the US markets closed for holiday.

Key technical levels

Immediate support to the downside for EUR/AUD lies at recent session/June 21 lows 1.4190, followed by June 24 lows at 1.4165, and Friday's Asian session highs at 1.4157. To the upside, closest resistance shows at June 25 highs 1.4253, followed by mentioned recent session highs at 1.4289, and June 24 highs at 1.4318.

[Raam]

AUD/USD DIPS BELOW 0.9230 AS RBA NEARS


With increasing chatter about a rate cut today coming from the RBA, even though market consensus according to Reuters is for a hold at current 2.75%,
The Aussie has recently sold off from session and double weekly high so far at the 0.9250 USD level, last trading at 0.9220, off fresh session lows at 0.9207.

Positive bias in the short term

The AUD/USD maintains “the positive bias at least in the short term, with price well above a bullish 20 SMA and indicators standing in positive territory.” The analyst notes more resistance in the longer time frames, “capped by 20 SMA barely above current price,

while indicators head north still below their midlines,” in the 4H charts,A steady continuation above 0.9250 should anticipate more advances, yet back below 0.9200 the downside is exposed back towards 0.9100.”

Key technical levels

The important support levels at: 0.9190, 0.9150 and 0.9110, while resistance levels at: 0.9235, 0.9270 and 0.9310.

[Amir]

1. Australia’s RBA Interest Rate Decision

News release Time 18.30 PM Dubai Time 04:30 PM GMT

Actual : - Forecast : 2.75 Previous : 2.75

Impact : High

RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
It's among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.
Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.


If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD.
Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish for the AUD.