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  1. #1081
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 July 2019

    • US equities lower amid renewed concerns regarding US-China trade talks
    • GBPUSD sells-off to lows last seen in April 2017 as no-deal Brexit risks increase
    • Brent drops c.3.5% after US-Iran tensions ease


    US equities closed lower, coming off the recent record highs, amid renewed concerns over US-China trade talks after President Trump told reporters the US still has a long way to go before reaching a trade accord with China and could impose additional tariffs if it chooses (FT)
    GBPUSD sold-off c.0.90% yesterday and continues to make new lows having traded below 1.2400 this morning (Bloomberg), a level last seen in April 2017. The risk of a no-deal exit from the EU increased after Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson’s demand that the Irish backstop must be ditched was rejected by Brussels
    In the US, retail sales came in slightly better-than-expected at 0.4% vs. 0.2% m/m yesterday and helped the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hold gains at near one-week highs
    Fed Chair Powell reiterated in a speech in Paris the Fed is “carefully monitoring” downside risks to US growth and “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”
    Elsewhere, Brent traded c.3.5% lower yesterday after US Secretary of State Pompeo said Iran had signalled willingness to discuss its purchase of S-400 weapon programme (Bloomberg). The perceived escalation of US-China trade talks helped fuel the commodities sell-off

  2. #1082
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 July 2019

    • Global equities lower amid disappointing corporate earnings and Trump comments
    • CHF & JPY strengthen and US 10-year yields fall as investors seek safe havens
    • GBPUSD had a volatile day after inflation figures reverse a two-year low


    US equities closed lower, with the S&P 500 recording its worst day in three weeks, after a fresh batch of earnings disappointed investors. The decline was aided by President Trump who said the US still has a long way to go before reaching a trade accord with China. Asian equities followed suit and dropped on earnings and trade concerns between Japan and South Korea (FT)
    US 10-year Treasury yields fell, CHF gained and JPY strengthened to a two week high as investors sought safe havens
    GBPUSD had a volatile day yesterday, falling to a new two year low of 1.2382 in the morning after both Tory leadership candidates seemingly hardened their Brexit stances. However, the pair erased losses and traded c.0.5% higher throughout the day after UK inflation data met forecasts (Bloomberg)
    Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson said a trade deal will not be reached with the US soon after Brexit and predicted discussions will be “tough” and “robust”
    The Fed released their Beige Book last night and reported economic activity “continued to expand at a modest pace” and the outlook is “continued modest growth, despite widespread concerns about the possible negative impact of trade-related uncertainty” (Bloomberg)
    In data, Australia’s unemployment rate stayed at 5.2%, much higher than the RBA’s estimate of the NAIRU. AUDUSD traded marginally higher and Barclays Research expects the RBA to remain on hold in August

  3. #1083
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 July 2019

    • US and Asian equities higher following New York Fed President Williams’ comments
    • GBPUSD rallies amid positive Brexit sentiment
    • Brent crude gains after it was reported the US shot down an Iranian drone in the Gulf


    US and Asian equities were higher yesterday and overnight following comments by New York Fed President Williams that “it’s better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold” (FT). The market took these comments as a potential sign of deeper easing and is now pricing in 40% probability of a 50bp cut in July
    GBPUSD rallied c.0.9% yesterday and traded above 1.25 after the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier said he was willing to seek an alternative arrangement regarding the Irish backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement (Bloomberg)
    However, it has been reported that UK Justice Secretary Gauke is set to resign his post while Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond and International Development Secretary Stewart are also considering departing before Boris Johnson potentially becomes PM
    In commodities, Brent crude gained c.2.5% after it was reported the US shot down an Iranian drone that came close to one of their warships in the Gulf (Bloomberg)
    President Trump said he is not looking at economic sanctions against Turkey “right now” following its decision to purchase S-400 missile systems from Russia. TRY gained c.1% versus the USD and USDTRY traded to lows of 5.6075 on the day (Bloomberg)

  4. #1084
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective-26 July 2019

    • Global equities weaken amid mixed US earnings
    • GBPUSD volatile but closes lower amid broad-based USD strength
    • AUDUSD extends declines following dovish RBA comments


    Global equities were down, with the S&P 500 retreating from a record high on Wednesday, as a series of corporate earnings from the US disappointed
    In central banks, the July ECB meeting went broadly in line with Barclays Research’s expectations, with ECB President Draghi preparing the market for a package of policy stimulus in September, but not yet delivering easing. Our Research team does not expect the Eurozone growth and inflation outlook to improve decisively between now and September
    The reaction in EURUSD was a volatile one, with the pair making highs of 1.1188 and lows of 1.1102 on the day, but remaining steady around 1.1150 overnight (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD had a volatile session yesterday, trading higher before dropping c.0.5% on broad-based USD strength. The Bloomberg USD Spot Index rose c.0.2% after a rebound in June US durable goods orders trimmed market expectations of the size of expected Fed interest rate cuts next week. Markets are now focusing on US GDP and consumer spending today at 13:30 BST
    In UK politics, European Commission President Juncker rejected PM Johnson’s demand that the Irish backstop provision must be scrapped. Juncker said the current agreement is the “best and only” deal possible (Bloomberg)
    AUDUSD extended declines for the sixth consecutive day, dropping c.0.3%, as expectations of RBA rate cuts increased following the dovish comments from RBA Chief Lowe. Lowe said he is ready to ease further if back-to-back cuts fail to revive economic growth
    Elsewhere, Turkey’s Central bank cut their one-week repo rate by 425bp to 19.75%. TRY initially spiked amid heavy outflows but ended the day almost unchanged (Bloomberg)

  5. #1085
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 29 July 2019

    • US equities close at record highs, Asian equities open mixed
    • GBPUSD breaking new two-year lows this morning
    • Central banks and data are in focus this week


    US equities gained on Friday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs after US economic growth data came in stronger than expected (2.1% q/q saar vs. 1.8% q/q saar). Asian equities opened mixed this week with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falling c.1.5% amid mass protests over the weekend
    GBPUSD touched two-year lows on Friday after better-than-expected US data prompted further USD strength. The pair continues to make new lows below 1.2350 this morning after UK Cabinet minister Michael Gove warned that a no deal Brexit was “now a very real prospect” (Bloomberg)
    In UK politics, PM Johnson’s Brexit crisis cabinet meets for the first time today and the six ministers will gather every day until the Brexit deadline of 31st October
    US-China trade talks are set to resume this week, with US Trade Representatives meeting a Chinese delegation on Tuesday and Wednesday
    Central banks and data this week are likely to be key in determining market direction over summer. Barclays Research expect the Fed to reduce the target range by 25bp and their forward guidance to show that it remains willing to ‘act as appropriate’
    The BoE is less likely to trigger volatility after recent balanced rhetoric, but the market remain watchful for signals that reinforce easing later this year. Our Research team expects “GBP to grind higher given already low-levels amid Parliament recess”

  6. #1086
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 July 2019

    • GBPUSD sells-off c.1.25% and suffers largest 1-day fall this year
    • BoJ keeps interest rates and forward guidance unchanged
    • Markets watch US-China trade talks starting today and Fed Wednesday


    GBPUSD sold off c.1.25% yesterday, broke through a key support level of 1.2200 overnight and touched 1.2119 this morning, a level last seen in March 2017 (Bloomberg). Yesterday marked the biggest 1-day fall this year in both GBPUSD. The moves came after investors became increasingly concerned about a no-deal Brexit as PM Johnson hardened his stance towards the EU
    Michael Gove, one of PM Johnson’s senior ministers, said leaving the EU without an agreement is now the government’s working assumption. Despite his toughened stance, PM Johnson tried to alleviate some concern in his Scotland speech by saying this was “absolutely not” the case (FT)
    Our traders see the next significant GBPUSD support level in the 1.2000 area while resistance comes in at 1.2400 and 1.2440. EURGBP resistance is at 0.9200 in the short term ahead of 0.9305, while support lies at 0.9100
    US equities were mixed yesterday and Asian equities traded marginally higher overnight ahead of today’s US-China trade talks and Wednesday’s Fed meeting
    The BoJ kept interest rates and forward guidance relatively unchanged but signaled it would respond aggressively to any economic weakness caused by events abroad. USDJPY grinded c.0.3% lower overnight after the BoJ meeting and despite mixed Japanese production data

  7. #1087
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 July 2019

    • Global equities decline amid renewed US-China trade concerns
    • GBPUSD range-bound after hitting 27-month lows yesterday morning
    • Focus is on the FOMC decision at 19:00 BST


    Global equities declined after concerns over US-China trade relations were reignited when President Trump criticised China’s handling of key trade talks between the two countries. He tweeted yesterday there were “no signs” of China buying US agricultural products as promised (FT)
    GBPUSD made new 27-month lows of 1.2119 yesterday morning, but traded in a relatively tight range thereafter amid no-deal Brexit concerns. PM Johnson’s hardened rhetoric continued yesterday as he said “it’s up to the EU” to compromise on an agreement (Bloomberg)
    Elsewhere in FX, AUD traded higher against all its major peers overnight after headline CPI surprised to the upside (0.6% q/q vs. 0.5% q/q). On the other hand, NZDUSD underperformed, dropping c.0.4% to 3-week lows of 0.6587 before retracing some losses, as business confidence fell to the lowest in almost 12 months (Bloomberg)
    China’s official manufacturing PMI for July stayed under 50 and in contraction territory for the third straight month (49.7 vs. 49.6). Barclays Research thinks “a return to strong expansion is unlikely in Q3, given the downward pressure on growth and lingering trade uncertainties”
    Focus is on the FOMC rate decision at 19:00 BST today. Our Research team expects the target rate to be cut to 2.00-2.25% and forward guidance to remain that the Fed is willing to ‘act as appropriate’. Fed communication since June suggests several motivations for easing including a slowdown in the industrial sector, trade uncertainty and persistently below-target inflation
    Key focus is on the Fed’s rhetoric for the future path of policy and Barclays Research believes “the committee needs to signal it is prepared to ease further to avoid adverse movements in financial markets”


  8. #1088
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 Aug 2019

    • Fed reduces the target rate in-line with expectations
    • GBPUSD makes new 31-month low overnight
    • Focus is on the BoE decision today at 12:00 BST


    The Federal Reserve reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 2-2.25%, as widely expected by Barclays Research and the market. Fed Chair Powell said the cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment to policy” rather than “the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle”
    However, our Research team believes the Fed signaled a willingness to enact further cuts to support the outlook. They continue to expect another 50bp in policy rate reductions by year-end, with the additional 25bp cuts occurring in September and December
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index rallied c.0.7%, to a two-month high of 1212.26, after the decision and US 10-year Treasury yields rose (Bloomberg)
    US and Asian equities declined as the Fed disappointed investors by signaling this was not the start of a new cutting cycle (FT)
    GBPUSD continued to trade off the recent lows before the Fed meeting yesterday, touching highs of 1.2250. However, the pair sold-off significantly and made a new 31-month low of 1.2101 amid broad-based USD strength after the meeting (Bloomberg)
    In UK politics, PM Johnson increased the amount of funding available for no-deal Brexit planning, setting aside an additional £2.1bn
    Focus is on the Bank of England rate decision today at 12:00 BST, Barclays Research thinks the BoE is less likely to trigger volatility after recent balanced rhetoric, but the market remains watchful for any shift in this rhetoric. Our Research team also thinks GBP rates and FX are unlikely to react materially on the event

  9. #1089
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 Aug 2019

    • US and Asian equities lower as President Trump announces new tariffs on China
    • USDJPY reaches lows of 106.85 and CNH trades to its lowest level YTD vs. the USD
    • Focus is on the US July employment report | Barclays Research expects Nonfarm Payrolls at 165k


    US and Asian equities sold-off after US President Trump broke the trade truce between the US and China by announcing a 10% tariff on an additional $300bn of Chinese imports from September. Trump justified his decision by suggesting China isn’t buying enough farm goods from the US
    It was also announced overnight that Japan will remove South Korea from a list of “trusted” nations with preferential trade status, escalating the trade war between the two nations
    The S&P 500 closed 0.9% in the red, the Nikkei is currently more than 2% lower and 10-year US Treasury yields fell 12bp to 1.90% (FT)
    In FX, JPY rose to a five week high versus the USD because of the escalating trade tensions, with USDJPY selling-off c.1.75% and reaching lows of 106.85. USDCNH reached 6.9786, its highest level year-to-date and the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded c.0.4% off two-month highs (Bloomberg)
    Brent crude had its biggest one-day drop in three-years after the renewed deterioration in trade relations. Brent sold-off c.5% and almost touched $60 a barrel before rebounding to $61.5 a barrel (Bloomberg)
    In the UK, PM Johnson’s majority in the House of Commons was cut to only one after the Liberal democrats, an anti-Brexit political party, won by-elections in Brecon and Radnorshire. This will make it more difficult for Johnson to pass future Brexit legislation through Parliament
    The BoE left rates and APF unchanged by an unanimous vote, as widely expected by both our Research team and the market
    Focus is on the July employment report released in the US at 13:30 BST, our Research team expects Nonfarm payrolls to increase by 165k, in-line with the current consensus but lower than June’s 224k. This report is widely expected to set the tone for the pace of activity in H2

  10. #1090
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 05 Aug 2019

    • USDCNY breaks above 7.00 for the first time in a decade
    • Sterling may continue to price in rising risks of no-deal Brexit this week
    • Central banks in focus again with the RBA on Tuesday and RBNZ on Wednesday


    Asian equities opened in the red this week after Beijing asked its state-owned enterprises to suspend imports of US farm goods in retaliation to President Trump’s tariffs last week. Further, the escalation of mass protests in Hong Kong led to a large sell-off in the Hang Seng index (Bloomberg)
    China’s renminbi weakened beyond Rmb7 per USD for the first time in over a decade after the PBoC set its midpoint at Rmb6.9225; which Rmb is permitted to trade 2% on either side of. This, along with the re-escalation of trade tensions, led to USDCNY hitting a high of 7.0357
    Investors sought safe havens; USDJPY sold-off c.0.5 and broke below 106.00, the weakest since January 2019, US 10-year Treasury yields fell 7bp to lows last seen in November 2016 and CHF strengthened (Bloomberg)
    The prospects of a no-deal Brexit has weighed heavily on GBP and Barclays Research thinks Sterling may continue to price in rising risks of this scenario. Their analysis suggests “a 10pp increase in the bookmaker-implied probability of no-deal Brexit results in c.1% depreciation in the GBP NEER”
    Bookmaker odds are currently implying c.40% chance of no-deal, which suggests scope for a potential c.6% of additional downside in the GBP NEER (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate)
    Downing Street officials are reportedly making preparations for a general election in the event PM Johnson loses a confidence vote when Parliament returns from recess. PM Johnson has previously said he wouldn’t call an election before the October Brexit deadline (FT)
    Central banks are in focus again this week; our Research team keeps their bearish bias on both AUD and NZD against the USD ahead of the RBA and RBNZ on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. They expect the RBA to stay on hold but RBNZ to deliver a unanimous 25bp rate cut

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