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  1. #1141
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Oct 2019

    • GBP under pressure as Brexit vote delayed
    • Asian equities supported by renewed trade optimism
    • Today, markets will watch further Brexit developments from UK Parliament


    GBPUSD traded broadly lower overnight, from highs of 1.2960 to 1.2875 after the votes in Parliament over the weekend. MPs voted in favour of an amendment by Oliver Letwin, which means Brexit-related legislation has to be agreed before a meaningful vote on the deal. Johnson then delayed the vote on his new deal with the EU until early this week
    The Prime Minister was forced to write to the EU to ask for an extension, despite repeatedly arguing that he wouln't ask for one
    Today, Johnson will make another attempt to win Parliament's backing for his Brexit deal by proposing another 'meaningful vote' - which Speaker Bercow may reject on the grounds it's already been considered. If this happens, the Prime Minister will attempt to secure a majority when legislation implementing the deal is put to a vote on Tuesday (FT)
    Our Researchers believe that failure to secure Parliamentary support for the deal should weigh on GBP, but the downside may be somewhat limited given the alternative scenarios of further negotiations and even a second referendum. On the other hand, a passing of the Withdrawal Agreement would lead to a GBP rally, with GBPEUR at 1.1900
    Asian equities traded higher overnight, supported by renewed optimism around US-China trade. Chinese Vice Premier He said on Friday that Beijing would work with the US to address concerns, and US President Trump said he thinks a trade deal will be signed by the time Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings take place on November 16-17
    Barclays Research revised their Fed call over the weekend, and now look for the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25bp in October and December. They see downside risks to the US outlook and a deceleration in domestic demand leading to more dovish Fed messaging
    Elsewhere, Canadian elections will take place today. After four years in power in Canada, Prime Minister Trudeau's Liberal party could lose their majority. Current polling puts the chances of a Liberal majority at just 21% (FT)

  2. #1142
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Oct 2019

    • GBPUSD jumps higher with growing Brexit optimism
    • Global equities in the green following positive comments on trade
    • Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau wins a second term but loses majority


    GBPUSD jumped higher yesterday from below 1.2880 to above 1.3010 with growing optimism that PM Johnson could get his Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) through Parliament today. However, the vote will be immediately followed by a second vote on whether MPs agree to his blistering timetable for pushing through the WAB. Analysis by the Financial Times suggests the Prime Minister might just succeed by 320 votes to 315
    Focus will also be on any amendments that are tabled. Currently two are being floated – one to attach a second ‘confirmatory’ referendum to a Brexit deal and a separate amendment to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU (FT)
    Markets will watch for any further developments today, as MPs only received their first sight of the 110-page Brexit legislation on Monday night, a move that attracted strong criticism of Downing Street. The vote on the WAB takes place this evening around 19:00 BST
    Most global equities were in the green yesterday and overnight after positive signals from both the US and China on their trade talks. President Trump said China had indicated talks over an initial deal are advancing, raising expectations he and Chinese Premier Xi could sign a pact at next month’s APEC summit
    In FX, NZD rose to a five-week high against USD of 0.6435 amid growing expectations of a partial US-China trade deal
    Elsewhere, Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau won a second term in the elections overnight. However, his Liberal Party was short of the 170 electoral districts needed for a majority. Trudeau’s most likely partner could be the New Democratic Party, which is poised to win 26 seats (Bloomberg)
    Focus for CAD is on the Bank of Canada outlook survey and Canadian Retail Sales, both released today

  3. #1143
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Oct 2019

    • GBPUSD moves lower following mixed results from votes in UK Parliament
    • JPY hits a one-week high against the USD
    • US and Asian equities slip overnight


    GBPUSD had a volatile day yesterday, trading in a range between 1.2850 – 1.3000, moving to the lows in that range overnight. Whilst PM Johnson won a larger-than-expected majority of 30 on the Second Reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), the Government subsequently lost control of the timetable to get the deal done by 31st October. Johnson has said he will now pause the WAB until the EU reaches a decision on the Article 50 extension request
    Following the vote, European Council leader Donald Tusk said that he would recommend the EU grant an extension until 31st January 2020. Focus will now be on an official response from the EU, likely to come later this week
    In FX, safe haven currencies advanced following the votes in UK Parliament, with JPY hitting a one-week high against the USD of below 108.30. Another catalyst for JPY strength was a planned speech by US Vice President Mike Pence around US-China trade which will take place Thursday, where there is concern that he could negatively affect the ongoing trade talks (Bloomberg)
    US and Asian equities slipped overnight following the continued lack of clarity around Brexit and amid concerns around the global tech sector following revenue warnings from some tech firms. The S&P 500 was down 0.36% and China’s Hang Seng down 0.93% after the reports (Bloomberg)
    In commodities, oil prices rose on Tuesday as OPEC discussed deeper production cuts due to worries about weak demand growth in 2020. Brent Crude traded from $58.75/barrel to over $60.20/barrel after the news


  4. #1144
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 Oct 2019

    • Asian equities in the green as US President Trump lifts sanctions on Turkey
    • GBPUSD struggles to find direction as markets await Brexit clarity
    • Focus today will be on multiple central bank meetings


    Asian equities traded broadly in the green overnight after reports of strong revenue from tech firms in the US. Another catalyst was the US President Trump lifting sanctions on Turkey, announcing that a ceasefire in northern Syria was now permanent. This announcement came after Russia and Turkey reached a deal to remove Kurdish militants from a buffer zone and conduct joint patrols in the area (FT)
    Following the President’s announcement, USDTRY traded down to c.5.7260 from c.5.7600, but overnight has traded higher
    GBPUSD struggled to find direction yesterday amid a lack of Brexit news, as markets wait for developments from Brussels or Downing Street. It was reported that the Government is split on whether to push for a general election or renew efforts to deliver Brexit after they failed to garner enough support for the timetable in the vote on Tuesday night
    GBPUSD traded from around 1.2890 to around 1.2915 during the day yesterday, maintaining a fairly tight range in comparison to recent days (Bloomberg)
    Markets wait for Brussels’ decision, expected on Friday, on whether to grant a Brexit delay until 31st January 2020
    The ECB meets today at what will be Mario Draghi’s last meeting before Christine Lagarde takes over as President of the central bank. Our research team do not expect any change in the ECB’s policy stance, as they look to the meetings in December and March for cuts to the deposit rate
    There are three other central bank meetings today – in Sweden, Norway and Turkey. Our researchers expect no change to policy rates in these meetings, but expect Sweden’s central bank to push out expectations for its next rate hike, acknowledging the significant weakening in domestic data. In Norway, they expect the central bank to reiterate that rates will likely remain at current levels for the foreseeable future

  5. #1145
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 Oct 2019

    • Asian equities move higher amid optimism around US-China trade
    • GBPUSD trades lower around Brexit uncertainty
    • PM Johnson calls for an election on 12th December 2019


    Asian equities traded broadly higher overnight amid optimism around US-China trade. Top officials will discuss plans today for China to buy more US farm products, and in return, Beijing will request cancellation of some planned and existing US tariffs on Chinese imports. In a speech yesterday, US Vice President Mike Pence said the US remains optimistic a trade deal can be reached (Bloomberg)
    However, the Vice President also criticised China’s handling of the Hong Kong protests as well as US companies he accused of ‘siding with the Chinese Communist Party’
    GBPUSD traded lower yesterday on further Brexit uncertainty. The pair moved from highs of around 1.2950 down to 1.2790 before recovering marginally overnight. PM Johnson has called for a snap election on 12th December, with a motion to trigger this being put to lawmakers on Monday. Labour Leader Corbyn said he would wait to see what the EU decides on a Brexit delay before deciding how to vote, repeating he could only back an election when the risk of a no-deal was off the table (Reuters)
    The EU is set to make a decision today on the length of the Brexit extension to grant. Focus is on the Ambassador’s meeting at 09:00am BST
    The ECB met yesterday at what was Mario Draghi’s last as President of the central bank. Policy was left unchanged as expected. Our researchers expect the incoming President Christine Lagarde to work on building a new consensus on monetary policy implementation before taking further action. However, they believe that economic developments will likely eventually force some action, resulting in a rate cut over the next year

  6. #1146
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 28 Oct 2019

    • Asian equities supported by renewed trade optimism
    • Today markets will watch further Brexit developments from UK Parliament and the EU
    • Central bank meetings and data releases are in focus this week


    Asian stocks rose overnight amid optimism around a US-China trade deal. Both sides said over the weekend that they were “close to finalising some sections” on a trade agreement. These comments come after a call between US trade representative Lighthizer, US Treasury secretary Mnuchin and China’s vice-premier Liu He; Mr Lighthizer’s office also said the negotiations would continue among deputies ahead of another call (FT)
    In FX, USDJPY traded higher after positive comments around a trade deal, touching highs of 108.79. However most currencies are trading in a tight range ahead of this week’s Fed meeting and data releases. Argentinean assets will be in focus after Alberto Fernandez secured victory in Sunday’s presidential election - USDARS traded c.0.7% higher overnight (Bloomberg)
    In the UK we wait for the EU's decision around an extension of the Brexit deadline, which is expected at the beginning of this week. On Monday the house will vote on a suggested 12th December General Election and its currently unclear if PM Johnson has enough support
    We will receive UK consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI this week. Barclays Research expects consumer confidence to move sideways but manufacturing PMI to improve slightly, as a declining likelihood of a no-deal may have bolstered overseas demand
    Markets turn their focus to central bank meetings and data releases this week. Barclays Research expects the Fed to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp, in line with market pricing. On Thursday Barclays Research think it is likely the BoJ will deliver a 10bp cut in the policy rate, which will need to be accompanied by mitigating measures seeking to reduce the side effects of negative interest rates. Lastly they forecast the BoC to remain on hold
    In terms of US data, Barclays Research expects ISM manufacturing to show some stabilization after the poor September print, PCE spending should point to continued modest growth in consumption and Q3 GDP should show consumption is still resilient. They expect nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 90k

  7. #1147
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 29 Oct 2019

    • Asian equities supported by renewed trade optimism
    • Yesterday the EU formally agreed a three-month extension
    • Today MPs will vote on another bill for a general election


    Asian stocks were mixed overnight with Japan’s Nikkei trading at the highest levels seen this year. Yesterday the S&P 500 hit a new record high amid optimism around a US-China trade deal. President Trump said he expects to sign a deal with China at the APEC meeting in Chile mid November. However the Hang Seng index traded lower as Hong Kong’s leader Carrie Lam said that negative economic growth is likely in the region (FT)
    In the UK, the EU formally agreed to a three-month extension of the Brexit deadline until 31st January yesterday. They agreed a ‘flextension’, i.e. the extension could lapse on set dates if the withdrawal agreement bill was ratified before then (FT). Following the news, GBPUSD posted modest gains trading to 1.2877, while EURUSD moved higher towards 1.1100
    Yesterday evening the house voted on a motion for a 12th December General Election but the vote did not pass and GBPUSD traded mixed overnight, briefly touching lows of 1.2835 (Bloomberg)
    PM Johnson has now tabled a one-line bill to set aside the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, setting a date for an election on December 12th, meaning that only a simple majority would be required for an election. MPs will vote on this today (FT)
    In FX, the yen and Swiss franc were some of the worst performers. USDJPY traded c.0.30% higher on the day and EURCHF traded c.0.15% higher while AUD climbed c.0.45% versus the USD yesterday and overnight amid improved risk sentiment
    The improved risk sentiment pushed NZD c.0.25% stronger versus the USD, also bolstered by demand as local markets reopened after a holiday yesterday (Bloomberg)

  8. #1148
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 Oct 2019

    • Asian equities trading lower
    • UK Parliament passes bill for a 12th December election
    • All eyes on the Fed meeting tonight


    Asian stocks traded in the red overnight after a calm US session yesterday and ahead of the Fed meeting today. Barclays Research expects the Fed to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp, in line with market pricing. They expect “that Chair Powell will emphasize that the committee is moving away from insurance-driven easing toward an emphasis on data dependence and meeting-to-meeting decision making”
    In other central bank meetings, Barclays Research forecasts that BoC in Canada will remain on hold and in Brazil, they and the consensus expect BCB’s Copom to reduce the selic rate to 5.00%
    In the UK, PM Johnson passed his motion for a 12th December general election yesterday in the House of Commons. This motion will go to the House of Lords before getting Royal Assent on Thursday. The assumption is that the house will formally dissolve on Wednesday 6th November. The pound was steady after the passing of the motion despite a fairly volatile day
    In FX, volatility in the majors touched the lowest levels in 3 months ahead of today’s Fed meeting and most currencies are trading in a tight range. AUD traded sideways versus the USD with a CPI print in line with expectations at 1.7% y/y.
    The Turkish lira traded c.0.35% lower versus the USD as the US House of Representatives passed a bill threatening new sanctions on Turkey for their offensive into Syria
    In commodities, Brent crude traded 0.2% lower overnight as an industry report that stocks at the Cushing delivery hub for the benchmark rose last week (Reuters). Brent crude touched lows of 61.32 (Bloomberg


  9. #1149
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 Oct 2019

    • Asian equities mixed overnight
    • The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp
    • USD traded lower versus its peers


    Asian stocks were mixed overnight after the FOMC meeting yesterday evening and official Chinese data showing that the factory sector contracted by more than expected this month. Another impact to risk sentiment was the cancellation of the APEC summit in Chile next month, where US and China were expected to finalise the trade deal (FT)
    In the US, the Fed cut rates by 25bp as expected and in the statement they dropped the language that the committee would 'act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’. They signaled that additional rate cuts are unlikely and Fed Chair Powell said there are several areas of strength in the US economy. Barclays Research expects one more 25bp cut in December this year
    In Japan the BOJ held interest rate at -10bp as expected by the market but changed its forward guidance to more clearly signal the future chance of a rate cut
    In FX, the USD fell versus its peers after the Fed announcement and the US Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded c.0.3% lower overnight. USDJPY fell c.0.2% overnight as the BOJ left rates unchanged. NZD gained c.0.5% overnight with stronger NZD data and GBPUSD traded c.0.3% higher on USD weakness
    In the UK the pound continued to trade in a stable range after the passing of the December general election bill and GBPUSD traded between 1.2852-1.2906 (Bloomberg). Barclays Research have changed their working assumption for Brexit and now expects an orderly withdrawal from the EU, most likely by the end of January
    There have been headlines out that the Brexit party may consider pulling out of hundreds of seats in order to boost the Conservative party, so far this has not been confirmed (FT)

  10. #1150
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 Nov 2019

    • Asian equities rise on better than expected Chinese data
    • USD trading mixed versus its peers
    • Market turns its focus to US nonfarm payrolls


    Asian stocks rose overnight after better than expected Chinese manufacturing data offset worries around US-China trade talks after comments from Chinese officials cast doubts of a long-term deal. Caixin China Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7 versus expectations of 51.0 (Bloomberg)
    After the cancellation of the summit of Asia-Pacific leaders, US and China are now looking for a new location to sign a “phase one” deal (FT)
    GBPUSD traded higher during the day amid reports that the Conservative party was strengthening in the polls and the pair briefly touched a high of 1.2976. Yesterday President Trump said that PM Johnson’s Brexit deal will make it difficult for the UK to make a trade deal with the US (Bloomberg)
    The appointment of a new Bank of England Governor has been delayed until after the election, with incumbent Mark Carney set to depart at the end of January
    In FX, the USD traded mixed versus its peers with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index c.0.25% lower yesterday and overnight. AUD and NZD were boosted by the stronger Chinese manufacturing print, AUDUSD traded c.0.2% higher overnight and NZDUSD traded 0.32% stronger (Bloomberg)
    Today markets will focus on the US employment data release at 12:30 BST. Barclays Research expects that “Non-farm payrolls should confirm moderation in the pace of job creation, while the ISM manufacturing should stabilize.” They expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 90k, compared to last month of 136k
    Today we also receive Moody’s rating review of South Africa and Barclays Research “believe that Moody's will place the country on review for downgrade from Baa3 to Ba1, and maintain our Underweight rating on SOAF sovereign credit”

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