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  1. #961
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 Jan 2019

    • GBP gains on increasing optimism around an Article 50 extension
    • Markets will watch the ECB and Euro-area PMIs today
    • Barclays Research revises down forecasts for US GDP due to government shutdown


    GBP made strong gains against the USD yesterday, breaking through the key resistance of 1.3000 and trading as high as 1.3094 overnight. The main catalyst was the risk of a no-deal Brexit apparently receding as key European and UK officials announced that they would be ‘comfortable’ with an extension of Article 50 (Bloomberg)
    In further Brexit news, Brexiteer Rees-Mogg said in a speech that ‘a reformation of this deal could be achieved that could make it acceptable’ (FT)
    Today’s focus is on the ECB meeting and Euro-area ‘Flash’ PMIs released at 09:30 GMT. Barclays Research thinks “President Draghi’s rhetoric this week is likely to be dovish and we think there is a fair chance that the ECB Governing Council will move its risk assessment toward “downside risks” from the current balanced view”, which is likely already expected by markets
    Given data in the Euro area has continued to weaken recently, focus will be on Flash PMIs this morning. Barclays Research expects the PMIs to stabilize (forecasts below)
    Elsewhere, employment data from Australia disappointed this morning. Despite a positive headline number, which showed that more jobs were created than expected, details of the report showed continued signs of weakness, with the increase due to part-time rather than full-time employees
    AUDUSD dropped sharply this morning after the data was released
    Despite the Senate voting on motions to resolve the US Government shutdown today, there is still little sign of either side backing down. Barclays Research thinks the shutdown is significantly affecting the economy, and revised down their outlook for GDP growth from 3.0% q/q to 2.5% q/q, estimating that the direct effect to GDP growth is -0.1pp for every other week

  2. #962
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 Jan 2019

    • Most global equities rose yesterday and overnight
    • GBP rallied overnight after seemingly positive Brexit headlines
    • EURUSD fell below 1.1300 yesterday after a dovish ECB meeting


    Most global equities made gains yesterday and overnight as optimism over technology earnings overshadowed the US Government shutdown and trade talk concerns. Headlines on the US-China negotiations have been mixed, with Commerce Secretary Ross saying they were ‘miles and miles’ from a resolution, but Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating that the US and China were ‘making a lot of progress’ (Reuters)
    GBPUSD rallied to a high of 1.3139 overnight (Bloomberg), after The Sun reported that the DUP had privately agreed to back PM May’s new Brexit deal, with the party allegedly saying that they will accept an Irish backstop with a time limit on it (Bloomberg). However the headline could be misleading, as the current Withdrawal Agreement does not have such a time-bound backstop
    GBPUSD receded slightly this morning, and markets will watch further Brexit headlines closely as we approach the Parliamentary vote on 29th January
    The ECB changed its assessment of risks at its January meeting from ‘balanced to the downside’ with President Draghi indicating that the persistence of weak data will dictate the type of policy action at the next meetings
    President Draghi acknowledged that several speakers mentioned the need for a TLTRO at the meeting, and Barclays Research believes “there is a strong case for another TLTRO to be announced, most likely in March 2019”
    EURUSD came under pressure after Draghi’s dovish stance, dropping below 1.1300 before picking up slightly overnight
    The US Senate blocked two spending bills yesterday which were seen as a potential way to resolve the US Government shutdown. The White House signalled that President Trump was open to a plan to reopen agencies for three weeks, but only if he ‘gets a large down payment’ for his border wall (Bloomberg)

  3. #963
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 28 Jan 2019

    • US equities close higher on Friday
    • GBPUSD reaches its highest level since mid-October
    • Focus on Tuesday’s Parliamentary vote


    US shares closed higher on Friday amid a temporary agreement to re-open the US government for 3 weeks to 15th February. However the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped on Friday after President Trump said he could shut down the government again or a declare a national emergency if a final deal does not include money for a border wall
    US-China trade talks are to continue this week on 30th-31st January. Barclays Research thinks that at this stage a deal seems unlikely however
    Chinese and US manufacturing PMIs released on Thursday and Friday will also be closely watched
    GBPUSD rallied to highs of 1.3217 (Bloomberg) on the back of reports from The Sun on Friday revealing that the government had secured the backing of the DUP for potential alternatives to the Irish border arrangement during the UK’s transition from the EU
    There were also reports from The Sun that PM May had privately told cabinet ministers she will rule out a ‘No-Deal’
    The focus for this week will be on the Parliamentary vote for PM May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday, which will be accompanied by votes for potential amendments. PM May’s first draft Withdrawal Agreement faced the worst Parliamentary defeat in modern history earlier this month
    Investors are paying attention to the ‘Cooper amendment’ which would force the Government to ask the EU for an extension if a deal cannot be agreed on by the 29th March deadline
    Barclays Research thinks that FX markets are getting overly optimistic about the ‘Cooper amendment’
    President Draghi acknowledged that several speakers mentioned the need for a TLTRO at the meeting, and Barclays Research believes “there is a strong case for another TLTRO to be announced, most likely in March 2019”
    EURUSD came under pressure after Draghi’s dovish stance, dropping below 1.1300 before picking up slightly overnight
    The US Senate blocked two spending bills yesterday which were seen as a potential way to resolve the US Government shutdown. The White House signalled that President Trump was open to a plan to reopen agencies for three weeks, but only if he ‘gets a large down payment’ for his border wall (Bloomberg)

  4. #964
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 29 Jan 2019

    • Today’s focus is on the Parliamentary vote
    • Investors will pay close attention to the Cooper and Brady amendments
    • US equities started the week on the defensive due to a few key earnings misses


    Markets will be paying close attention to the Parliamentary vote on PM May’s Brexit deal, which will be accompanied by votes on potential amendments – voting is scheduled to begin at 7pm. PM May’s first draft Withdrawal Agreement faced the worst Parliamentary defeat in modern history earlier this month
    GBPUSD has retraced somewhat from its recent 1.3217 high but is still trading above 1.3100, c.3% higher than at the start of January
    Investors are honing in on the ‘Cooper amendment’ because if approved, it could potentially lead to an extension of Article 50 if a deal cannot be agreed on by the 29th March deadline. The ‘Brady amendment’ is also of importance as it calls for the Northern Ireland backstop to be replaced with “alternative arrangements”
    Barclays Research thinks that FX markets are getting overly optimistic about the ‘Cooper amendment’
    US stocks closed lower on disappointing earnings results. In the Asian session, equities traded mixed further to the US filing criminal charges against Huawei and its CFO Meng Wanzhou, with tech stocks being the worst affected. The charges have ramped up tensions between Washington and Beijing ahead of the critical US-Sino trade talks due to begin tomorrow
    Barclays Research does not expect a deal at this stage between the US and China

  5. #965
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 Jan 2019

    • Parliament backs ‘Brady amendment
    • GBPUSD trades lower after Parliament rejects ‘Cooper amendment’
    • Stocks mixed ahead of Fed and US-Sino trade talks


    MPs voted on amendments to PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement last night rejecting all but two of the proposed amendments. The two amendments to pass were Caroline Spelman’s, as well as the more significant ‘Brady amendment’
    The ‘Brady amendment’ supports the Withdrawal Agreement only if the Northern Ireland backstop is replaced with an ‘alternative’ to avoid a hard border
    Caroline Spelman’s amendment rejects the UK withdrawing without a deal. However, this amendment is completely symbolic and carries no legal significance
    The ‘Cooper amendment’ was another important proposal, which aimed to extend Article 50 through a Parliamentary vote if no Brexit deal was reached by 26th February. The amendment was aimed at eliminating the chance of a ‘no deal’ exit but was rejected by Parliament
    PM May stated that the Government intended to bring forward a second meaningful vote ‘as soon as possible’ but without giving a precise date, also stating that if it was not tabled by 13th February, it would table an amendable motion the following day
    Going into the vote, GBPUSD reached highs of 1.3200, however, it sold off following the rejection of the ‘Cooper amendment’. It continues to trade above 1.3050 this morning, however attention now turns to the EU as PM May seeks new concessions to her Brexit deal
    EC President Donald Tusk spoke immediately after the vote, saying that the backstop was not up for re-negotiation
    Asian stocks saw a mixed session overnight ahead of trade talks between the US and China which begin today. Barclays Research does not expect a deal at this stage between the US and China. We also get the FOMC’s rate decision this evening and Fed chair Powell’s subsequent press conference
    We are not expecting any policy action at this month’s meeting and Barclays Research recently revised down their forecast to only two Fed rate hikes in 2019 after Fed rhetoric started to strike a more dovish tone

  6. #966
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 Jan 2019

    • The Federal Reserve puts rate rises on hold
    • US and Asian stocks rally on Fed’s reversal on rates
    • GBPUSD trades back above 1.3100


    At its January meeting, the Federal Reserve pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes, signalling a potential end to its tightening cycle amid tepid inflation and global growth concerns
    Barclays Research believe “it is difficult to read the outcome of the January FOMC meeting as anything other than the Fed capitulating to recent market volatility”
    Following the outcome of the meeting, Barclays Research now expect only one 25bp rate hike this year in September and one additional 25bp rate hike in March 2020
    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by c. 0.7% on the back of the dovish Fed outcome
    US equity indices closed higher yesterday and Asian stocks followed overnight as the Fed’s signal of a patient approach to rate hikes should boost risk appetite. US stocks were also helped by solid results from corporations such as Apple and Boeing
    China’s onshore renminbi reached a 6-month high amid broad USD weakness
    Focus now turns to the second day of US-Sino trade talks, although Barclays Research do not expect a deal to be reached at this meeting
    Having come off recent highs following Tuesday’s parliamentary vote, GBPUSD gained some ground overnight and is now trading above 1.3100
    Another parliamentary vote on PM May’s Brexit deal is set to take place on 14th February
    The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator told Britain the EU is not planning any concessions, with less than two months to go now until Britain’s scheduled departure from the EU (Bloomberg)

  7. #967
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 Feb 2019

    • US stocks close broadly higher while Asian stocks are mixed
    • GBPUSD is steady around 1.3100
    • Focus today turns to US labour market data


    Following the best month for equities in over seven years, US stocks continued higher yesterday amid strong earnings results from companies such as General Electric. “Important progress” was also reported at the US-Sino trade talks. However Asian equities were mixed overnight as early trade optimism gave way to concerns over weak Chinese data
    US and Chinese negotiators had a “frank, concrete and constructive discussion” agreeing to “further strengthen cooperation” on certain issues. The US trade representative and Treasury Secretary are now considering a Beijing trip in early February to resume negotiations
    US President Trump was optimistic but said negotiations hinge on his meeting with China’s Xi Jinping “in the near future”
    China’s PMI fell to a 3-year low of 48.3 in January which was below the 49.6 forecast. Barclays Research have subsequently revised their forecast for the PBoC to make two 25bp benchmark lending rate cuts in Q1 and Q2
    GBPUSD traded in a 1.3100 – 1.3160 range yesterday and is currently around 1.3100 ahead of UK manufacturing data this morning and US nonfarms this afternoon
    Barclays Research expects a dip in manufacturing PMI to 53.5 from 54.2, in line with consensus, as the continued political deadlock is likely to weigh on business confidence
    In the US employment report, Barclays Research expects nonfarm payrolls to rise 160k on the month, the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m and 3.2% y/y
    Conservative ministers are also due to discuss employment rights and environmental protections after Brexit with Labour MPs today. Conservatives are likely to seek support from the opposition as a means of balancing out rebels from their own party

  8. #968
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 Feb 2019

    • Asian stocks made gains overnight amid positive trade comments
    • USD rose on Friday after headline non-farm payrolls increased
    • Nissan cancelled production of a new car model in its UK factory in negative Brexit news


    US equities mostly rose last week amid a surprise decision by the Fed to remove its forward guidance, in a possible sign of an end to its hiking cycle. Overnight, Asian stocks made gains after optimistic trade remarks out of Washington, where President Trump told CBS that talks were ‘doing very well’
    However Barclays Research expect no confirmation of a trade deal until Presidential-level talks are held, potentially in late February
    Chinese markets will be closed this week for Chinese New Year, and other Asian markets will be closed on some days, including Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia
    On Friday, the USD rose against other G10 currencies after Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 304k in January, well above Barclays Research and Consensus estimates, whilst the unemployment rate increased to 4% from 3.9%
    In the UK, further negative Brexit news filled the weekend newspapers, with Nissan reportedly cancelling production of a new car model at its Sunderland plant, in another blow to PM May. Today she will launch a new Government working group to look for a Brexit Plan B, including alternative arrangements for avoiding a hard Irish border (Bloomberg)
    There is a BoE meeting on Thursday, where markets will watch for signs of how Brexit is affecting monetary policy at the central bank, however Barclays Research do not predict a change in stance
    With few key events this week, markets will watch corporate earnings figures for signs of weakness. Companies such as Alphabet, the owner of Google and Youtube, General Motors & Twitter all report their results this week

  9. #969
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 05 Feb 2019

    • US equities trade higher, and Australian shares rally
    • Sterling closes the day lower amid mixed Brexit headlines
    • AUD rallies after the RBA meeting overnight


    Most US equities rose yesterday led by gains in technology shares, however Google parent Alphabet reported lower-than-expected profit margins in after-hours trading, which resulted in shares falling c.3%. Australian shares climbed overnight led by financials after the results of an inquiry into misconduct in the sector were not as harsh as expected (Bloomberg)
    Sterling closed lower yesterday amid mixed Brexit headlines. Reports that the ‘UK would waive through most EU goods at ports in the event of a no-deal’ (The Sun) led to a short-lived rally in Sterling, despite the fact that this does not limit the chances of a no-deal scenario
    GBPUSD reached a high of 1.3103 (Bloomberg) on the news, but retraced all of its gains thereafter. Focus today will be on PM May’s visit to Northern Ireland, where she is expected to give a speech
    Elsewhere, the RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 1.5% as expected overnight. Despite a more positive rhetoric, members acknowledged that downside economic risks have increased (Bloomberg)
    AUDUSD gained by c.1% after the RBA meeting, erasing losses from the more negative retail sales data earlier, which unexpectedly fell by 0.4% m/m
    Barclays Research expect the RBA to downgrade growth and inflation forecasts for 2019 on Friday in its Statement of Monetary Policy
    Today, markets will watch for any catalyst out of the State of the Union Address, which is planned to be delivered by President Trump at 23:30 GMT. According to Bloomberg, a declaration of national emergency is possible – a move which could harm relations between President Trump and House Leader Pelosi further

  10. #970
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 06 February 2019

    • Equities trade in the green yesterday and overnight
    • Sterling under pressure after weak PMI data
    • AUD depreciates after comments from RBA Governor Lowe


    European equities rallied yesterday, with the FTSE 100 closing c.2% higher amid positive earnings data in the oil sector and Sterling weakness. US stocks also traded higher yesterday ahead of US President Trump’s State of the Union Address overnight, where an optimistic tone was expected. However, the speech did not provide any materially new information and market reaction was muted.
    Despite urging an immigration compromise, Trump did not call for a ‘national emergency’ which would have allowed him to bypass Congress for border wall funding (Bloomberg)


    GBPUSD fell below 1.2950 yesterday amid worse-than-expected PMI data. Both Services and Composite PMI showed contraction in new orders and employment, falling to 50.1 and 50.3 respectively
    Barclays Research believes that ‘against the backdrop of slower global momentum, the surveys signal downside risks to Q1 growth’

    In European data, German Factory Orders came in worse than expected (-1.6% m/m, Consensus: 0.3% m/m)

    In Brexit news, PM May is in Ireland today for the second day of her trip where she is looking for concessions to bring to Parliament (FT). The next key date in Brexit negotiations is 13/14th February, where PM May will present a proposal to be voted on, after an amendment calling for ‘alternative arrangements’ to the Irish backstop passed at the last vote

    Elsewhere, AUDUSD dropped c.1.5% overnight after RBA Governor Lowe acknowledged that rates might fall if unemployment was to rise and inflation was to stay too low, stating that economic risks were ‘more evenly balanced’

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