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  1. #951
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 Jan 2019

    • Asian stocks and US equity futures trade lower overnight amid weak Chinese data
    • USD under pressure due to dovish Fed rhetoric
    • Focus on Fed Chair Powell’s speech today at 17:00 GMT


    US and European equities traded higher during the day yesterday amid optimism regarding US-China trade talks. However, risk sentiment worsened overnight as most Asian stocks and global equity futures fell, weighed down by a lack of concrete details on the outcome of the US-China talks and the release of weak Chinese factory inflation
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index dropped c.0.7% yesterday on dovish rhetoric by Fed officials and a cautious stance expressed in the Fed December meeting minutes. Today’s focus is on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 17:00 GMT
    Barclays Research thinks “even in light of the strong December employment report, which came after the December FOMC meeting, the next rate hike is unlikely to occur in March and, instead, we expect it to take place in June”
    Sterling remained under pressure yesterday although GBPUSD closed higher amid general USD weakness. Ahead of next week’s vote on PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement, Parliament is voting on a number of amendments and yesterday saw the ‘Grieve Amendment’ passed which means Government will have to announce its next steps within three days if PM May’s deal is defeated, as opposed to twenty-one days under the previous schedule

  2. #952
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Jan 2019

    • Global equities trade with a bid tone on hopes of positive trade talk outcome
    • Fed Chair Powell reiterates dovish outlook
    • GBPUSD remains under pressure amid ongoing Brexit concerns


    US and Asian equities traded higher yesterday and overnight amid hopes of a positive outcome in the US-China trade talks. Additionally stock markets reacted positively when Fed Chairman Powell explained that the FOMC will be patient and flexible with raising interest rates, mirroring the cautious stance expressed by other Fed officials this week.
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell overnight giving back almost all gains made yesterday, weighed down by Powell’s dovish rhetoric. The notable outperformer overnight was CNH which continued to rally versus the USD, having risen c.1.8% this week, supported by rising optimism regarding the trade talks.
    GBPUSD fell marginally yesterday amid ongoing concerns over the Parliamentary vote on PM May’s Brexit deal next week with headlines suggesting the Labour Party is set to vote against the deal. Additionally PM May openly considered a Brexit “Plan B” in case Parliament rejects her Withdrawal Agreement next week (Bloomberg)
    There are a number of domestic data releases today however market focus will likely remain on any further political headlines ahead of the Parliamentary vote on Tuesday.

  3. #953
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 Jan 2019

    • Equities trade lower following weak Chinese trade data
    • GBPUSD reaches highest level since November on Friday
    • Focus firmly on Tuesday’s “meaningful vote” on Brexit
    • Ahead of the meaningful the desk will be covered until midnight on Tuesday 15th and will restart again on 06:00 on 16th Wednesday


    Asian equities slumped overnight after the release of weak Chinese trade data as exports fell 4.4% from a year earlier. Stock futures in Europe and the US also traded lower as the disappointing print re-enforced concerns over global growth
    JPY strengthened as investors fled to safety and AUDUSD traded back below 0.72 this morning following on from this
    Bloomberg’s USD Spot Index closed last week lower amid dovish Fed rhetoric. Barclays Research have revised their forecast for US interest rates down to two hikes in 2019 and a final hike in Q2 2020
    GBPUSD climbed to 1.2865 on Friday which was its highest level since late November. The rally came as speculation built up around the UK potentially delaying its scheduled departure from the EU. Today, PM May will speak in anti-EU stronghold Stoke-on-Trent in a last-minute attempt to save her Brexit deal
    Tomorrow is a crucial day for the UK as Parliament will vote on Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement (WA), with time running out until the scheduled exit from the EU on March 29. Current parliamentary arithmetic suggests that the WA will not be ratified, and is widely expected by markets. Markets will be closely monitoring the margin of defeat
    Barclays Research view that the WA will eventually be ratified however not until March, after a 1-2 month delay. A no-deal Brexit is still a necessary scenario to consider however and remains the default outcome
    Barclays FX Sales team will be available to support our clients’ needs throughout the Brexit vote; covering the desk until at least midnight on Tuesday 15th. The team will start again at 06:00 on Wednesday morning.

  4. #954
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 Jan 2019

    • Asia-Pacific equities trade higher as risk sentiment improves
    • GBPUSD climbs to a two-month high
    • Focus is on today’s “meaningful vote” on her Withdrawal Agreement


    Asia-Pacific stocks made gains overnight having traded lower in the previous session due to weak Chinese trade data. Gains came further to China’s announcement to start implementing fiscal stimulus
    In the UK, despite the continued uncertainty as PM May’s vote appears to be set for rejection today, GBPUSD continued to climb higher yesterday, reaching a two-month high of 1.2930 (Bloomberg). GBPUSD 6-month ATM vol has also come off c.10% over the past week (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD climbed higher amid headlines implying a delay of the withdrawal process and reports of possible new support for PM May’s deal
    Markets will be honing in on this evening’s “meaningful vote” on PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement. Markets are pricing in a rejection, as is the expectation of Barclays Research, with a wide range of potential outcomes for GBP depending on the vote
    Barclays Research’s central scenario assumes that the UK leaves the EU in March or after a one/two month delay, after the eventual ratification of a Withdrawal Agreement
    There will be key Central Bank speakers today both from the ECB and the Federal Reserve. With global growth and policy normalization currently in focus, today’s rhetoric from both Fed Presidents and Draghi is likely to be watched closely
    Barclays Corporate FX Sales team will be available to support our clients’ needs throughout the Brexit vote; covering the desk until at least midnight on Tuesday 15th. The team will start again at 06:00 on Wednesday morning.

  5. #955
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 Jan 2019

    • PM May’s Brexit deal faced a landslide rejection
    • Focus is on this evening’s no confidence vote in the UK Government
    • Most global equities trade higher while UK stocks slump this morning

    PM May’s Brexit deal was rejected by 230 votes in the largest Parliamentary defeat in modern history after three of four proposed amendments to the deal were withdrawn prior to the vote.
    GBPUSD traded in the 1.2850 – 1.2900 range for the first half of yesterday, trading down to 1.2700 going into the vote, hitting a low of 1.2670 after the announcement of the loss.
    However, GBPUSD retraced back up to 1.2890 shortly afterwards to session highs as PM May announced that she would start cross-party talks on Brexit this week.
    Barclays Research commented that...“GBP FX markets exhibited a strong “buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact” reaction to Tuesday’s WA vote. In the near term, the plethora of likely next steps subjects the pound to headline risk in both directions. We believe our base case for medium-term GBP appreciation remains intact but risks have increased that an EU exit will be delayed beyond end-March.”
    Following the announcement of the results, Corbyn accepted PM May’s invitation to lay down a vote of no confidence in the government. Investors will be watching the vote, which is expected take place this evening at 19:00 GMT, closely.
    A simple majority of 326 votes is needed; the broad consensus is that zero Conservative MPs will vote against the Government and the DUP have stated that they will back the Government, therefore, market expectation is for May to win the vote.
    Elsewhere, US and Asian stocks mostly gained on the back of Chinese announcements to boost spending through tax cuts, as well as a rally in Netflix shares.

  6. #956
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 Jan 2019

    • US equities trade higher whilst Asian stocks are mixed
    • GBPUSD trades in range after PM May wins confidence vote
    • Fed Beige Book reveals tight US labour market


    US equities traded higher on the back of positive Q4 earnings results in the financial sector. However, Asian stocks finished the session in negative territory on concerns about rising US-China tensions and news of US prosecutors probing Huawei for allegedly stealing trade secrets (Bloomberg). Further negative headlines suggest that US President Trump reportedly considers to proceed with tariffs on imported vehicles
    Nonetheless, it was also reported that US-China trade talks are to resume 30-31st January (Reuters)
    Having previously had a volatile session on Tuesday, GBPUSD has traded in a tight range throughout yesterday and continued to remain range bound after PM May won the vote of no confidence, in line with market expectation
    Straight after the vote PM May invited leaders from the opposition to join cross-party discussions regarding how it may be possible to break the Brexit deadlock
    The Fed’s “Beige Book” revealed that labour markets were tighter in the US, reporting moderate wage gains. The Beige Book will be monitored by US policy makers when assessing inflation, although at the moment inflation seems to show no sign of rising above the 2% target. FOMC voter Quarles may provide further insight when he speaks in New York today
    Barclays Research expect two 25bp hikes from the Fed in Q2 and Q4 2019 and one 25bp hike in Q2 2020

  7. #957
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 Jan 2019

    • US and Asian equities rally on signs of US-China trade progress
    • GBPUSD trades higher amid positive Brexit headlines
    • PM May has until Monday to work out her revised Brexit plan


    US stocks broadly traded higher with gains extending into Asia overnight, following reports of the US possibly removing some of the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports. Despite a Treasury spokesperson stating that the reports were false, this was enough to boost risk sentiment (Reuters)
    USDJPY gained c.0.5% overnight amid the signs of easing US-China trade tensions
    GBPUSD rallied yesterday to an almost two-month high of 1.3001 (Bloomberg) as investors interpret the most recent Brexit headlines positively. For example, leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, said that a second referendum remains possible
    Weekend press releases pose further headline risk to Sterling. In GBPUSD, resistance at 1.3000 continues to hold ahead of 1.3075 and 1.3300 with support now at 1.2820 and 1.2670
    Along with Donald Trump, PM May is skipping the Global Economic Summit in Davos, as she continues to work on a compromise on Brexit. She has ruled out a no-deal Brexit, but faces a deadline of January 21 to work out a solution to the current deadlock

  8. #958
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Jan 2019

    • Global equities traded higher last week amid easing trade tensions
    • China’s Q4 GDP fell to 6.4%, the lowest since 2008
    • GBPUSD volatility set to continue as PM May presents Brexit plan today


    Global equities traded higher across the board last week amid easing tensions between China and the US. In a positive development on Friday, China offered to ramp up imports from the US by a combined value of more than $1 trillion over a six year period, in order to reduce its trade surplus (Bloomberg)
    However, further signs of an economic slowdown in China came overnight as China’s Q4 GDP slipped to 6.4%, the lowest rate since the global financial crisis. This has prompted concerns that China could drag the global economy down (FT)
    GBPUSD was volatile last week amid conflicting Brexit headlines. This week could be equally volatile, with PM May expected to speak in Parliament today to present an alternative plan after her Withdrawal Agreement was voted down last week. The new vote is currently scheduled for 29th January 2019 (FT)
    Barclays Research believe that the possibility of Article 50 being extended has risen materially. This would act as a support for Sterling, particularly if a long extension was granted, as it would carry with it a higher possibility of a second referendum. In the medium to longer-term, Barclays Research base case is for the Withdrawal Agreement to be ratified, and they see GBP rallying c.4-5% on a trade-weighted basis if this occurs
    Markets will watch Eurozone PMI data this week, with flash PMIs for Germany and France (Thursday) helping to gauge whether subdued levels of growth are set to continue, as Euro area growth disappointed significantly in 2018. There is also an ECB meeting on Thursday, where Barclays Research expects dovish comments
    However, Barclays Research see limited EUR downside as ECB President Draghi already noted last week that the economy still needed a ‘significant amount’ of stimulus

  9. #959
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Jan 2019

    • Asian equities trade lower amid little progress in trade talks
    • GBPUSD remains susceptible to Brexit developments
    • The IMF cuts global growth forecasts, flagging trade war concerns


    Asian equities were in the red overnight amid a slowdown in Chinese GDP and a negative outlook from the IMF. Further negative news came from US President Trump tweeting ‘China should stop playing around and do a real trade deal’ amid a lack of progress in current trade talks (Bloomberg). US stock markets were closed due to the US holiday yesterday
    In FX, JPY strengthened overnight vs. the USD, supported by safe-haven demand
    GBPUSD made moderate gains yesterday as PM May addressed Parliament regarding the current Brexit deal, stating that she will seek concessions from the EU on the Irish backstop. However, her comments were quickly rebuffed by EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier who said that the current Withdrawal Agreement was ‘the best possible deal’ (FT)
    In further signs of a rift in the Conservative Party, up to 40 members of the government will reportedly resign next week if MPs are banned from voting for a plan to stop a no-deal Brexit and clear the path for an extension to Article 50 (The Times)
    Ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the IMF revised down global growth forecasts to 3.5% this year and 3.6% in 2020 and warned that the global economy is weakening faster than expected, citing the risks of a trade war between the US and China and financial market volatility (FT)
    Davos is seen as less significant this year, as key leaders Presidents Trump and Macron and Prime Minister May are not attending due to domestic issues

  10. #960
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Jan 2019

    • GBP gains as the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit seemingly reduces
    • Asian equities tread water amid reports of little progress in trade talks
    • JPY trades lower after the BoJ cut its inflation outlook


    US equities traded lower yesterday, coming back from Monday’s holiday and with little progress made on reopening the US Government. Asian stock markets traded sideways overnight after the US rejected an offer by Chinese officials to travel to America this week for preparatory trade talks, reportedly because of a lack of progress
    This comes ahead of a high level meeting on 30th January with Chinese Vice Premier Liu and US trade representative Lighthizer (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD made gains throughout yesterday making highs close to 1.2980. UK Labour data surprised to the upside, with Average Weekly Earnings increasing by 3.4% on the year, which is the biggest rise since 2008 (Bloomberg)
    In Brexit developments, backbench MP Yvette Cooper tabled an amendment that seeks to extend the 29th March deadline to prevent a no-deal Brexit. Shadow Chancellor McDonnell reportedly expressed that the Labour Party is increasingly likely to support this amendment (Bloomberg)
    However, PM May told ministers to vote against the proposal and keep the possibility of a no-deal on the table (FT)
    Elsewhere, the BoJ kept its monetary policy unchanged overnight as widely expected. JPY fell overnight against the USD after the committee put further emphasis on downside risks around the overseas economy and lowered their FY19 forecasts for Core CPI inflation
    Nonetheless, Barclays Research still believe that the BoJ will look to dismantle their Negative Interest Rate Policy in July

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