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  1. #1101
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Aug 2019

    • US and Asian equities trade lower amid an increase in global risk sentiment
    • GBUSD jumps higher after slightly more positive comments from Chancellor Merkel
    • Markets will watch the release of the US Fed Minutes for July at 19:00 BST


    US and Asian equities traded lower yesterday and overnight following an increase in global risk sentiment, as investors weighed up the prospect of fiscal stimulus in China, Brexit issues and the resignation of the Italian Prime Minister
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded lower yesterday, as markets await the Fed minutes today
    GBPUSD jumped yesterday to highs of 1.2179 (Bloomberg) following slightly more positive comments from German Chancellor Merkel, where she said that ‘practical Brexit solutions will be considered.’ This came after EC President Tusk rejected PM Johnson’s demand to remove the Irish backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement, claiming the UK had offered ‘no realistic alternatives’ to prevent the creation of a hard border in Ireland
    Today PM Johnson will meet Merkel in Berlin, where he is expected to reiterate his call for the backstop to be removed
    Today, markets will focus on the release of the minutes for the July Fed meeting at 19:00 BST, to gain some further clarity on the central bank’s position; why did it call the 25bp cut in July a “mid cycle adjustment” and why did two members of the committee vote against the move?
    With the market currently pricing in 32bp of cuts for September and more than 100bp in one year, Barclays Research believes the minutes may disappoint market easing expectations, leaving risks skewed for USD strength
    Elsewhere, Italian Prime Minister Conte announced his resignation yesterday. In a speech to the Italian Senate, Conte accused Deputy Prime Minister Salvini of weakening the country by calling for fresh elections. Italian President Mattarella will now have to see if there is scope for a new coalition to be put together, or whether the country will need to hold fresh elections (FT)
    Italian 10-year bond yields fell 4 basis points to 1.389% after the announcement (FT)

  2. #1102
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Aug 2019

    • European and US equities trade higher following better than expected US corporate earnings
    • German Chancellor Merkel gives PM Johnson 30 days to solve the Irish Backstop issue
    • Today markets will watch the release of euro-area PMIs and ECB minutes


    European and US equities traded higher yesterday and overnight following better than expected US corporate earnings figures, as renewed optimism around consumer spending countered recent economic growth worries (FT)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded broadly higher overnight
    Yesterday the US Fed minutes were released for July, justifying the 25bp rate cut by pointing to a 'pronounced slowing in economic growth in overseas economies' amid decelerating US manufacturing output. It also demonstrates a desire for an insurance approach, whereby cuts in the policy rate help protect the US economy against a weaker external backdrop
    The minutes also showed a wide range of views within the FOMC committee, with a couple of members preferring a 50bp rate cut immediately, and several arguing in favour of keeping rates unchanged (FT)
    GBPUSD traded slightly lower yesterday amid broad based USD strength and ahead of PM Johnson's meeting yesterday afternoon with German Chancellor Merkel. At the meeting, Merkel challenged Johnson to solve the Irish border backstop issue within 30 days. Johnson will go on to meet French President Macron in Paris today ahead of the G7 meeting this weekend (Bloomberg)
    Today, markets will await the release of euro-area PMIs at 09:00 BST and the ECB minutes at 12:30 BST for further insight into the health of the European economy and the future path of the Central Bank. At the last ECB meeting, President Draghi signalled that all options are on the table, including a potential restart of quantitative easing
    Last week Governing Council Member Rehn said the ECB should come up with an 'impactful and significant' stimulus package at its next gathering (Bloomberg)

  3. #1103
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Aug 2019

    • Asian equities trade in the green ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 15:00 BST today
    • NZDUSD moves higher following hawkish comments from Governor Orr
    • GBPUSD rallies on positive comments from French President Macron around Brexit


    Asian equities traded in the green overnight ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole at 15:00 BST today, and the G7 meeting in Biarritz which takes place over the weekend. In FX, NZD rallied c.0.4% after Governor Orr said the central bank could afford to wait-and-see before deciding on further action to support the economy (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD rallied yesterday from 1.2109 to 1.2273 (Bloomberg) before retracing somewhat. The main catalyst appeared to be positive comments from French President Macron, who said he was confident that something intelligent can be found in 30 days. However, he also mentioned that any agreement won’t be very different from the existing deal (Bloomberg)
    Today Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking at 18:00 BST
    EURUSD initially gapped higher yesterday morning after Manufacturing PMI reports displayed better-than-expected results in France and Germany. The pair however erased all of its gains shortly thereafter, returning back below 1.1085 and remained relatively muted following the release of ECB minutes at 12:30 BST
    The minutes from the 25th of July meeting revealed that the committee agreed on a ‘need for accommodative stance for prolonged period’, while adding that the ‘next possible package could include rate cuts and new asset purchases’ (Bloomberg)
    Today the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off with Fed chair Powell speaking at 15:00 BST which the market will be watching closely for signals of the direction of the Fed from here. Since the meeting in July when Fed cut rates by 25bps we have had some hawkish speeches from non-voting members
    There will also be a number of key members from the BoE, RBA, Riksbank and the Fed attending

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