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  1. #1321
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 29 July 2020


    • · US equities lower amid continued uncertainty
    • · AUDUSD higher as CPI falls by less than expectations
    • · Focus is on the FOMC meeting tonight at 19:00 BST

    US equities traded lower yesterday as weak earnings, coupled with continued economic uncertainty, dampened investor sentiment. The USD 1tn pandemic relief package proposed by Senate Republicans has encountered intense resistance from Democrats, who oppose cutting enhanced unemployment benefits from $600 a week to $200 (FT)
    According to European policy maker Stournaras, the ECB’s decision to unwind its pandemic stimulus programme “will depend on the evolution of inflation, mostly”, suggesting emergency asset purchases may continue longer than initially anticipated with CPI below target (Bloomberg)AUDUSD extended its rally overnight after moving c.0.4% higher yesterday amid USD weakness. The currency traded an additional c.0.3% higher, moving above 0.7170, after consumer prices fell less-than-expected in the region. Headline CPI in Q2 declined by 1.9% q/q (consensus: -2.0% q/q). On a y/y basis, prices fell by 0.3%, from a 2.2% y/y increase in Q1. However, this was better than the RBA's forecast of 1% y/y declineFocus is on the FOMC meeting at 19:00 BST tonight, Barclays Research expects the Fed to stay on hold. The Committee will likely acknowledge the improved data from May and June, but continue to highlight downside risk and uncertainty. Our Research team do not expect any shift in forward guidance, as it will likely occur after the review on its policy framework is completed

  2. #1322
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Jul 2020

    • US equities higher as Fed stay on hold
    • US COVID-19 death toll reaches two-month high
    • USD weakness continues to drive G10 FX



    US equities moved higher as the Fed held off any significant changes to monetary policy but extended measures to deal with the risk of an international shortage of USD, including extending swap lines with other central banks. The Fed warned the US economic recovery “will depend significantly” on the course of the coronavirus pandemic (FT)
    Chair Powell said the framework review is likely to be completed in the "near future" and Barclays Research expects changes to the statement in September that are consistent with a shift to inflation averaging
    Confirmed coronavirus cases in the US have grown to almost 5mn with over 150k deaths. The daily death toll reached the highest in two months, with Texas and California reporting record increases. Britain is reportedly expected to impose quarantine measures on more European countries and will ask those with symptoms to isolate for 10 days instead of 7 (Bloomberg)
    USD weakness continued to drive G10 FX yesterday. EURUSD rallied another c.0.5% and traded to a high of 1.1806 yesterday, although the currency eased gains ahead of key European economic data today. GBPUSD also traded c.0.5% higher, breaking through 1.3000 overnight, before retracing gains to around 1.2950 this morning (Bloomberg)

  3. #1323
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 31 July 2020


    • · Global equities and the USD under pressure
    • · GBPUSD breaks through 1.3100 overnight
    • · Lockdown rules re-imposed in areas of Northern England

    Global equities and the USD were under pressure overnight after the US recorded its largest GDP contraction on record, reinforcing fears that an economic recovery was losing momentum (FT). Yesterday’s advance estimates for US Q2 20 GDP show growth dropped 32.9% q/q saar, led mainly by weakness in consumer spending on services, and fixed investment
    Q2 GDP reported broadly in line with Barclays Research’s expectations, their outlook for growth in Q3 therefore remains unchanged. Our Research team expects growth to rebound in the third quarter (+25.0% q/q saar), led by an increase in personal consumption spendingIn FX, GBPUSD rallied over 1% and traded from around 1.2950 yesterday to above 1.3125 this morning. EURUSD also traded over 1% higher and is currently trading around 1.1875UK PM Johnson re-imposed lockdown rules across a large part of Northern England after a spike in coronavirus cases. The population of Greater Manchester and parts of East Lancashire and West Yorkshire cannot meet indoors with members of other householdsIn the US, Texas reported a second day of record fatalities from the virus, although hospitalisations in Houston dropped for a ninth consecutive day. President Trump said in some instances a “small shutdown” might be helpful, but not for very long (Bloomberg)In Emerging Markets, China’s official manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside for the second consecutive month, edging up to 51.1 from 50.9 in June. The jumps in new export orders and the construction PMI suggest likely sustained export resilience and rising infrastructure investment in Q3. Services PMI softened but Barclays Research expects the recovery to catch up there

  4. #1324
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 03 Aug 2020

    · Fitch ratings cuts outlook on US· GBPUSD trades lower this morning following strong week· Focus for GBP is on the Bank of England meeting ThursdayAsian stocks traded mixed overnight amid a global surge of new coronavirus cases, and as US lawmakers struggled to agree a new stimulus plan. On Friday, Fitch Ratings cut the outlook on the US’s triple-A rating from stable to negative, citing eroding credit strength and a ballooning deficit. It also said the future direction of US fiscal policy depends in part on the November election and the resulting makeup of Congress, cautioning there is a risk that policy gridlock could continue (Reuters)Sentiment was helped by a survey overnight showing China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in nearly a decade in July, with the Caixin Markit PMI at 52.8 (Reuters)GBPUSD had a strong week last week, trading from below 1.2800 on Monday to above 1.3150 on Friday. This morning, GBP has traded slightly lower against USD, moving below 1.3100. Focus for Sterling this week will be on the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. However, Barclays Research expect it to be broadly uneventful, with no changes to policy. They believe a bearish forecast to economic outlook could weigh on GBPIn UK domestic news, millions of COVID-19 tests able to detect the virus within 90 minutes are due to be rolled out to British hospitals, care homes and laboratoriesIt was reported on Sunday that top decision makers in Downing Street are considering a plan to seal off London and order at-risk members of the population to stay home as a worst-case option if virus infections spike
    Today’s focus is on Manufacturing data. We receive E19 Final Manufacturing PMI at 09:00, UK at 09:30 and the US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00. All are forecast to be in growth territory following preliminary data earlier in the month (Bloomberg)

  5. #1325
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 04 Aug 2020

    · Asian stocks up as NASDAQ hits new record high· GBPUSD falters yesterday but broadly recovers overnight· UK reports biggest daily rise in cases since 26th JuneAsian stocks were in the green overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei up c.1.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index up more than 2%. The move higher followed a tech-fuelled rally on Wall Street, after the NASDAQ hit a new record high, as well as positive sentiment following a reduction of new cases in the US. The rise in new infections slowed to 0.9% from 1.4% over the previous week (Bloomberg)US Fed officials resumed their warnings about the economic impact should Congress fail to extend fiscal stimulus. Talks between Democrats and White House officials resume today GBPUSD faltered yesterday, moving from above 1.3100 to below 1.3020 in the afternoon, before broadly recovering overnight. USD strength was behind the move, and Barclays Research note that the re-imposition of lockdowns in northern England is likely to be a GBP headwind in the near term. Yesterday Downing Street confirmed that powers to restrict movement of people may be enforced over the coming months, with the potential for local transport networks to close (FT)The latest coronavirus data showed that there had been an additional 938 COVID-19 cases in the UK on Monday – the biggest daily rise since 26th June (FT)We received manufacturing PMI data from the UK, Europe and the US yesterday. Whilst the UK and US data was slightly worse than expected (UK 53.3 vs 53.6 expected, US 50.9 vs 51.3 expected), Europe’s was higher at 51.8 (consensus 51.1). With less data today, markets turn their focus to Wednesday’s Services PMI Data (Bloomberg)

  6. #1326
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 05 Aug 2020

    · US expected to agree new stimulus package this week· COVID death toll surpasses 700,000· GBPUSD trades broadly sideways day-on-dayUS equities traded broadly higher yesterday, while Asian stocks traded mixed overnight. In the US, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said that the White House and Democrats aim to strike a deal on a stimulus package in the coming days. Democrat speaker of the House of Representatives, Nanci Pelosi, echoed the comments in an interview (Bloomberg)In Sino-US trade, the two sides will hold high level talks on or around 15th August to assess Beijing’s compliance with the phase 1 trade dealIn coronavirus news, the global death toll surpassed 700,000 yesterday. The UK Government agreed to invest £14m in a Scottish plant that will manufacture a vaccination, in a move to secure domestic productionGBPUSD’s path yesterday mirrored Monday’s – trading lower in the afternoon but shortly recovering losses. It moved from a high of above 1.3100 to below 1.3000 before recovering to around 1.3080 overnight. Today’s focus is on Services PMI data, at 09:30 BST. Expectations are for a reading in-line with last month, at 56.6 (Bloomberg)An explosion at Lebanon’s main port in Beirut has left at least 78 dead and more than 4,000 injured. The Interior Minister said initial investigations suggested the explosion was caused by confiscated explosive material

  7. #1327
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 06 Aug 2020

    · US stimulus talks said to be at an impasse· Bank of England keeps policy rate on hold this morning· Rate of infection slows across the US as a wholeAsian stocks traded mixed overnight, and US stocks ended the day higher yesterday. Stimulus talks in the US are said to be at an impasse, with the White House and Democrats still far apart on major issues. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said that further talks may be fruitless if the two sides can’t agree on the general outlines, while President Trump is reportedly prepared to take unilateral action to extend supplemental jobless aid (Bloomberg)GBPUSD moved broadly higher yesterday – at one point above 1.3150 – ending the day firmly above 1.3100. This morning the pair spiked briefly above 1.3170 following the Bank of England meeting. The central bank kept rates on hold at 0.10% as expected, and left the size of its bond-buying programme unchanged at £745bn. It said that it doesn’t plan to tighten policy until it’s more certain about the outlook for inflation (Bloomberg)Policymakers at the central bank expect unemployment to rise materially to about 7.5% by the end of the year, with GDP 20% lower in Q2They mentioned negative rates in the MPR, stating that they will ‘continue to review the appropriateness of a negative policy rate as a policy tool alongside the broader toolkit’Yesterday’s Services PMI data came slightly lower than expected in Europe and the UK. European PMI came in at 54.7 (consensus 55.1), UK at 56.5 (consensus 56.6). In the US, Services PMI moved from contraction in June to 50.0 in July – consensus expectations were for a contraction (49.6)Pandemic news was mixed yesterday. The rate of infection slowed in the US overall, but California had its second-most fatalities, and the rate of test positivity in Texas exceeded 15%. The UK reported 891 new cases yesterday, slightly above the 7-day moving average of 818

  8. #1328
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 07 Aug 2020

    · Asian stocks fall on rising Sino-US tensions· GBPUSD trades in tight range yesterday· Today’s focus is on US Nonfarm Payrolls at 13:30Asian stocks dropped overnight on rising Sino-US tensions, as US President Trump signed an executive order banning US residents from doing business with TikTok, beginning in 45 days. In a further bout of negative sentiment, the rate of infections in the US moved higher to 1.3%, while US stimulus talks ended with no headway on the biggest differences between the two sides (Bloomberg)In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index is still trading near 2-year lows of 1172.95GBPUSD traded slightly higher yesterday, but in a broadly tight range between 1.3120 and 1.3190. This followed the Bank of England meeting, where policymakers kept rates on hold, but signalled that it will be a long, slow grind before output and employment return to pre-pandemic levels, and that there are high risks of the recovery being thrown off course (FT)Today’s focus is on US Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 BST – a key indicator to assess the slowdown in the pace of recovery. Barclays Research forecast payrolls to remain unchanged in July, while consensus expectations put growth at 1480k. The unemployment rate is released at the same time – Barclays Research are above consensus, expecting 11.1% (consensus expectations are for 10.6%)Elsewhere, Chinese trade data was released overnight. Exports surged 7.2% in July from a year earlier – far higher than economists’ forecast of a 0.2% fall. Imports were lower, at -1.4% (market expectations were for a 0.9% increase year on year)

  9. #1329
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    Market review- Fundamental Perspective - 10 Aug 2020

    · Asian equities mixed with Sino-US tensions· President Trump signs COVID-19 executive orders· GBP likely to be driven by plethora of data this weekAsian equities were mixed, with shares in China’s big technology groups lower, after Washington unveiled sanctions targeting Beijing, fuelling concerns over a potential broader decoupling of Sino-US relations. US President Trump on Friday imposed sanctions on 11 Chinese and Hong Kong officials in response to Beijing imposing a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong (FT)President Trump also signed four executive orders related to COVID-19 economic relief, including expanded unemployment benefits, a temporary payroll tax deferral, eviction protection and student-loan relief. Stimulus talks between the White House and congressional Democrats broke down on Friday, leading Trump towards the executive action (Bloomberg)Barclays Research highlights “a confluence of countervailing factors suggests that the USD is likely to remain volatile in the near term, but not necessarily in a one-way depreciation. An extrapolation of the current dollar weakness as the beginning of a turning medium-term cycle to the south appears gaining momentum in the markets, but such a trend change is not set in stone yet”Our Research team thinks accelerated declines in US real yields also appear to be dragging the USD lower, but do not see it as reflecting a long-term decline in US growth expectationsWith Brexit in a dormant state – the next round of formal negotiations will not resume until 17th August – a wait-and-see BoE and a lack of dominant themes amid August seasonality, the GBP is likely to be driven by the plethora of data this week. Barclays Research are slightly more constructive than the consensus on Tuesday’s labour report and Wednesday’s activity release

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