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  1. #1111
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 Sep 2019

    • Asian equities trade higher following hopes of stimulus in China
    • USD falls following worse-than-expected job growth
    • This week, markets will watch the ECB meeting on Thursday



    Asian equities traded higher overnight following increased hopes of economic stimulus in China after the release of Chinese export data on Sunday, which came out much weaker than expected. Headline exports came in at -1.0% YoY vs. consensus of +2.2% YoY. The contraction was led by a significant deterioration in exports to the US, following continued Sino-US trade tensions (Bloomberg)


    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded lower on Friday following the release of the US Labour report. Headline job growth came out less than expected at 130k vs. consensus of 160k, driven by a slowdown in services sector employment. However, the three month average payroll growth moved higher to 156k, consistent with a healthy pace of hiring. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%


    Despite the weaker USD, GBPUSD traded lower on Friday amid continued Brexit uncertainty. Foreign Secretary Raab said PM Johnson remains committed to pulling the UK out of the EU by the end of October and may challenge legislation requiring him to ask for a delay if there’s no deal by October 19th. Over the weekend, Amber Rudd quit the cabinet and the party in protest of Johnson’s leadership (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research still see a no-deal exit from the EU as their base case scenario. In the near term, they see risks to the downside for GBP


    This week, markets will watch the ECB meeting on Thursday. Barclays Research expect the central bank to announce a 10bp depo rate cut and restart QE, amid a slowdown in the Eurozone economy and continued Brexit uncertainty


    In EM on Friday, China’s central bank reduced the ratio of reserves that commercial lenders are required to maintain, in an effort to boost the broader economy. Russia’s central bank also cut its benchmark lending rate by 25bp to 7% (FT)

  2. #1112
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 Sep 2019

    • Chinese stocks under pressure amid falling factory prices
    • GBPUSD trades higher on better-than-expected GDP data
    • UK Parliament is now suspended for the next 5 weeks



    Asian equities were mixed overnight, with Chinese stocks under pressure after data showed mainland factory prices shrinking at their fastest pace in three years. CPI data was also released, with inflation figures holding at three-year highs, boosted by an increase in pork prices. Barclays Research see CPI inflation remaining elevated in the coming months
    In FX, JPY weakened against the USD to more than one-month highs of 107.50 following positive reports on US-China trade talks, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said both sides made ‘a lot of progress’ on Monday (Bloomberg)


    GBPUSD traded with a bid tone for most of the day yesterday, moving from c.1.2240 to c.1.2380 after better-than-expected UK GDP data. Headline GDP came out at 0.3% m/m vs. expectations of 0.1% m/m, painting the UK economy in a better light than previously anticipated. However, GBP weakened slightly in the afternoon after Speaker Bercow announced he will resign on 31st October 2019 (Bloomberg)
    Yesterday evening Parliament voted against PM Johnson’s bid for a general election on 15th October for the second time, and also voted to force the government to publish its preparations for a no-deal Brexit
    GBP moves may be relatively subdued going forward as Parliament is now suspended for the next 5 weeks, returning on 15th October


    In Commodities, Brent crude rose for a fifth day to its highest level in almost six weeks, on optimism that OPEC and other producing countries may agree to extend output cuts to support prices. Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister said that the global deal to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day would be maintained (Reuters)

  3. #1113
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Sep 2019

    • China removes foreign investment limit in its capital markets
    • Johnson’s Brexit negotiator arrives in Brussels today to begin discussions
    • In commodities, oil fluctuates as President Trump fires security advisor Bolton

    Most Asian equities rallied overnight, whilst Chinese stocks remained under pressure, despite the country removing a foreign investment limit in its capital markets. China also exempted 16 types of US products from additional retaliatory tariffs, including animal feed. The exemption will take effect on 17th September and be valid for a year (Reuters)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index was broadly unchanged yesterday as markets await two key central bank meetings, the ECB and the Fed, tomorrow and next week respectively


    GBPUSD traded broadly sideways yesterday with the UK Parliament suspended for the next 5 weeks. In a meeting with DUP leader Arlene Foster, PM Johnson affirmed his opposition to the Northern Ireland-only backstop and committed to securing a deal that works ‘for the entire United Kingdom.’ Johnson’s Brexit negotiator David Frost arrives in Brussels today to begin discussions around a deal
    Despite the PM insisting that the UK will leave the EU with or without a deal on 31st October, Downing Street said on Tuesday the ‘priority’ now was to avoid a no-deal Brexit (FT)
    In UK data, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.8% vs. consensus expectations of 3.9%


    In the US, President Trump abruptly fired his National Security Advisor, John Bolton, yesterday afternoon. This resulted in oil prices fluctuating as markets predicted a reduced likelihood of conflict with Iran. Brent Crude traded in a wider range, between c.62.2 – c.63.7 during the day (Bloomberg)


    In EM, Korea’s unemployment rate fell sharply in August, dropping to 3.1% from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate since 2013. Job creation also jumped to 452k in August, the highest since March 2017

  4. #1114
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 Sep 2019

    • US President Trump postpones tariffs
    • Barclays Research maintains their no-deal assumption
    • 10bp depo rate cut expected at the ECB meeting



    US President Trump has postponed, via a tweet yesterday evening, the introduction of higher tariffs on Chinese goods until 15th October, in what he referred to as a gesture of “goodwill” (FT). The announcement came after China suspended some tariffs on US goods. This has improved investor sentiment regarding the tensions as both sides are set to resume negotiations this week
    Global equities rallied before and after the announcement. The S&P 500 closed 0.72% higher, led by a rally in tech and healthcare. Asian equities broadly rebounded overnight


    In FX, USDCNH fell c.0.4% and USDCNY – permitted to trade 2% either side of a daily fixing – also traded 0.4% lower to below 7.0900. The JPY dropped to a six-week low versus the USD amid signs of easing tensions with USDJPY trading to a high of 108.17 overnight (Bloomberg)


    Barclays Research published a Brexit update overnight. They highlight that the potential for a delayed no-deal outcome is one of the main reasons they continue to maintain their base case. Our Research team expects a no-deal to be the most likely scenario. They see recent developments in Parliament, from the Benn Bill to a potential general election, as just a delay to a no-deal outcome
    GBPUSD traded broadly sideways and our traders continue to see support at 1.2300 ahead of 1.2230 and resistance at 1.2385 ahead of 1.2440


    All eyes are on central bank meetings today. Barclays Research expects the ECB to announce a 10bp depo rate cut with mitigating measures, drop the calendar based component of forward guidance and announce that it will be restarting QE. Elsewhere, there is a rate decision in Turkey at midday, our traders expect the CBT to cut 350bps with the market currently pricing in 300bps

  5. #1115
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Sep 2019

    • Global equities trade higher as Sino-US trade risks ease
    • EURUSD volatile following ECB meeting yesterday
    • Turkey’s central bank cuts rates by 325bp


    Global equities traded higher yesterday and overnight as Sino-US trade risks eased. China renewed purchases of US farm foods, while President Trump delayed a tariff increase on certain Chinese goods by two weeks. Low level US and Chinese officials are expected to meet next week in Washington ahead of talks between senior trade negotiators in early October (Reuters)

    EURUSD had a tumultuous day yesterday following the ECB meeting at 12:45. It traded in a wide range with lows of c.1.0930 and highs of c.1.1070 after the central bank cut its deposit rate by 10bp from -0.4% to -0.5%, the first cut since March 2016, and announced that it would restart its QE programme, buying €20bn of bonds every month from November (FT)
    President Draghi said the eurozone faced ‘more protracted weakness’ than previously thought, resulting mainly from the global trade slowdown
    The ECB cut its forecast for eurozone growth by 10bp in 2019 to 1.1% and by 20bp in 2020 to 1.2%. It also lowered its forecast for inflation by 10bp for this year and 40bp for next year

    In EM, Turkey’s central bank also cut policy rates, by 325bp from 19.75% to 16.50%. The MPC statement afterwards was broadly similar to that from the July meeting, highlighting that despite weakness in investment demand, leading indicators point to a partial improvement in the sectoral diffusion of economic activity
    USDTRY sold off after the rate announcement, from c.5.76 to c.5.66, before stabilising around 5.6630 (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research continue to expect the one-week repo rate to be cut to 15% by year-end and adjust their forecast to a 150bp cut for the October MPC meeting, from 175bp previously

  6. #1116
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 Sep 2019

    • Stocks in the red after attacks on two Saudi Arabia oil plants
    • Brent crude oil trades stronger
    • 25bp rate cut expected at the FOMC meeting this week



    Most global stock markets traded lower after an attack on two Saudi Arabia oil plants, weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, and amid thinner liquidity with a public holiday in Japan. Oil prices surged with an intraday move of c.19.00% in Brent Crude, touching a four-months high of $71.95 per barrel after the attacks on the world’s third largest oil producer
    The oil price retraced part of its gains and is now trading around $60.00 per barrel, after President Trump allowed the use of the US emergency stockpile (Bloomberg)


    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded lower and touched 1204.29 on Friday, the lowest level since mid August, as US-China trade talks struck a constructive tone. Overnight, JPY rallied amid worries around escalation of Middle East tensions. Commodity currencies such as NOK and CAD also traded stronger following the higher oil price


    GBPUSD traded c.1.3% higher on Friday, rising to its highest level since late July of c.1.2500, on the back of news reports providing fresh impetus to hopes that a disorderly ‘no-deal’ Brexit will be avoided on 31-October and because of broad based USD weakness (Bloomberg). PM Johnson is to hold talks with EC President Juncker and EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier in Luxembourg today
    The Liberal Democrats have formally taken a tougher anti-Brexit stance during a party conference on Sunday where they voted to take on a policy to revoke article 50 which would then stop Brexit (Reuters)


    This week, markets will watch the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. With the market already pricing in a full 25bps cut, Barclays Research expects the dot plot and Fed chair Powell’s press conference to drive the price action after the meeting
    On Thursday we also have the Bank of England meeting, Barclays Research don’t expect this to move GBP as political uncertainty is still the market’s focus

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