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  1. #1191
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Jan 2020

    • GBPUSD trades in a tight range
    • Safe haven demand increases amid coronavirus concerns
    • Barclays Research maintain their oil price forecasts


    GBPUSD traded in a tight range yesterday with a low of 1.2962 and a high of 1.3009. It was reported overnight that the EU wants any deal with the UK on post-Brexit regulations to include possible fines for violations. European officials propose disputes be settled through an arbitration panel with the authority to impose fines on the infringing party (Bloomberg)

    USDJPY gapped 0.25% lower, US Treasuries gained and Asian equities are in the red as concerns continue to grow about the coronavirus. The death toll from the virus, which originated in China, reached four and several medical workers were infected overnight. Concerns are mounting about the virus spreading to other Asian countries. USDCNH rallied and is currently above 6.9075 (Bloomberg)


    The Bank of Japan kept their policy balance rate on hold at -0.1% and maintained their 10-year JGB yield target at approximately 0%. They also left their forward guidance and asset purchase amounts unchanged, but did raise their FY2020 growth forecast to 0.9% from 0.7% previously

    Barclays Research released a commodities publication overnight and note that whilst the global macro backdrop remains fluid, heightened geopolitical tensions add to uncertainties in the outlook. Our Research team maintain their 2020 price forecasts for Brent and WTI at $62 and $57/ barrel, respectively

  2. #1192
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Jan 2020

    • Barclays Research expect BoE to cut next week
    • Concerns about the coronavirus continues to drive sentiment
    • Bank Negara Malaysia surprises the market with a cut


    Barclays Research have adjusted their Bank of England forecast to expect one 25bp cut at the 30th January MPC meeting. In parallel to this, our Research team have also revised down their 2020 UK inflation profile and expect CPI at 1.4% y/y in 2020 and RPI at 2.2% y/y in 2020. Following the 25bp cut, they expect a prolonged period of ‘status quo’ in UK monetary policy
    GBPUSD traded marginally higher yesterday after UK earnings data was slightly stronger-than-expected, with weekly earnings coming in at 3.2% 3m/y (vs. 3.1% expected) and employment growing by 208k (110k expected). The pair had a low of 1.2996 and a high of 1.3084
    Elsewhere, concerns about the coronavirus continued to drive risk sentiment yesterday after the number of reported cases increased to 440, with one of those cases being in the US. USDJPY moved lower to below 109.80 and USDCNH remained above 6.9000. However, USDJPY erased almost all losses as China announced a nationwide screening process to address the outbreak (Bloomberg)
    In Emerging Markets, Bank Negara Malaysia reduced the overnight policy rate by 25bp to 2.75%. In a statement today, the BNM said that the MPC considers the move to be appropriate in sustaining economic growth with price stability (Bloomberg)
    Korea’s Q4 19 GDP growth significantly exceeded expectations, rising 1.2% q/q sa (Q3: 0.4%). Barclays Research continue to forecast growth at 2.3% in 2020
    Focus is on the Bank of Canada at 15:00 GMT today. Our Research team expects the central bank to keep the policy unchanged at 1.75% and forecast rates on hold for the foreseeable future. They highlight the main risks to the Canadian economy have eased for now, as the US-China phase one deal and impending approval of USMCA reduce trade uncertainty

  3. #1193
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Jan 2020

    • Coronavirus drives risk sentiment for another day
    • GBPUSD rallies amid CBI business optimism print
    • USDCAD gaps higher after BoC meeting


    Coronavirus developments drove risk sentiment for another day as Asian equities continued to decline, US Treasuries rose and USDJPY tracked c.0.5% lower yesterday and overnight, trading to below 109.60 this morning. The moves come after Chinese officials halted travel from Wuhan, essentially locking down a city of 11 million people as they attempt to stop the virus spreading (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD rallied over 0.7% yesterday, from a low of 1.3035 to a high of 1.3153, and continues to trade at those levels this morning. The pound strengthened after CBI business optimism came in at +23 (versus -44 previously), the strongest since 2014. The probability of a 25bp cute by the Bank of England next week fell to 59% and focus is now on the UK Markit PMIs at 09:30 GMT tomorrow
    Australia’s employment expanded by 28.9k in December, higher than expected. The unemployment rate also inched down to 5.07% from 5.17%. However, our Research team notes the change was driven entirely by an increase in part-time employment and continue to expect the RBA to cut their key rate at the 4th February meeting
    AUD advanced against all major peers and AUDUSD gapped 0.5% higher overnight. The pair trades above 0.6870 this morning (Bloomberg)
    The Bank of Canada kept the policy rate unchanged as expected, but signalled less confidence in the near-term outlook. The Bank acknowledged that Q4 19 soft momentum will likely spill over into early 2020 but continues to expect exports and investment to contribute to growth in 2020, and a pickup in consumer spending driven by high income and federal tax cuts (Barclays Research)
    USDCAD initially gapped c.0.65% higher to above 1.3120 and has continued to strengthen with the pair currently trading above 1.3150 (Bloomberg)

  4. #1194
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 Jan 2020

    • Asian equities mixed as China expands travel ban
    • GBPUSD in a tight range ahead of 09:30 PMI print
    • Markets are currently pricing in a 55% chance of a BoE cut


    Asian equities traded mixed overnight as China stepped up efforts to control the spread of the coronavirus by expanding the travel ban to a further 10 cities. The WHO’s general director said in a statement that the virus is an emergency in China but has not yet become a global health emergency. Markets in China and South Korea were closed for the holidays
    USDJPY continued to grind lower and held losses below 109.60 overnight (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research believes the spread of the coronavirus could cause transitory economic disruptions and constitute an emerging risk to the economic recovery
    GBPUSD traded in a tight range between c.1.3100 and 1.3140 yesterday. Focus for GBP is on the UK PMI release at 09:30 GMT this morning. The market implied probability of a Bank of England rate cut next week is expected to be sensitive to this print. Barclays Research expect manufacturing at 50.0 and services at 52.0, compared to the market consensus of 48.8 and 51.1, respectively
    Markets are currently pricing in a 61% probability of a 25bp interest rate cut by the Bank of England at the 30th January meeting. Our Trading desk feel today’s composite PMI print needs to exceed 54.0 in order to stop the BoE from cutting by 25bp
    Barclays Research published their Emerging Markets Weekly overnight and highlight that recent cuts by the central banks of Malaysia, Turkey and South Africa were aggressive relative to their forecasts and expectations for substantial cuts remain in Turkey, Mexico and Russia, and incremental easing in Thailand and Indonesia. Next week the focus turns to key G10 (Fed) and EM central banks (Hungary and Colombia)

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