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  1. #1171
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 Dec 2019

    • Asian equities lower as 15th December tariff deadline approaches
    • GBPUSD trades higher as Tory Party maintains majority in polls
    • Markets will watch the release of the final MRP poll tonight at 22:00 GMT


    Most Asian equities moved lower overnight as markets showed concern over the upcoming 15th December deadline for the next round of US tariffs on Chinese imports to take effect. Uncertainty was reinforced after US Agriculture Secretary Perdue said that while President Trump did not want to implement tariffs, he did want to see ‘movement’ from China (Reuters)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded lower yesterday, erasing most gains from Friday’s Labour report and trading to near 1-month lows, below 1200 (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded broadly higher yesterday as the Conservatives continue to show a reasonably strong lead in the polls. Today, markets will watch the release of the final YouGov MRP poll at 22:00 GMT. The MRP poll interviews significantly more voters than other polls (c.100,000 vs. c.2,000) and showed a Tory majority of 359 seats when it was first released three weeks ago
    UK Monthly GDP will be released at 09:30 GMT today. Whilst less likely to be market moving, Barclays Research and the market consensus expect an increase of 0.1% m/m vs the previous month’s -0.1% decline
    Elsewhere, Chinese CPI came in better-than-expected overnight. It increased 4.5% y/y vs. consensus expectations of a 4.3% increase and following a 3.8% gain in October. USDCNY remained muted following the release whilst NZDUSD moved higher
    Barclays Research forecast Chinese CPI inflation to stay around 4.5% in December, rising towards 5.2% - 5.4% in January/February

  2. #1172
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Dec 2019

    • YouGov poll predicts reduced Conservative majority
    • Asian equities mixed amid speculation on tariffs
    • Markets will watch the Fed meeting at 19:00 GMT tonight


    GBPUSD came under pressure overnight, moving from above 1.3200 to below 1.3120 after the release of the second and final YouGov MRP poll. It predicted that the Conservative Party will win a much smaller majority than expected two weeks ago – just 28 compared to 68 in the original MRP poll. YouGov highlighted a margin of error which could put the final number of Tory seats from 311 to 367 – meaning that a hung Parliament cannot be ruled out (YouGov)
    The MRP poll takes polling data from 100,000 panellists across the country, taking into account local factors such as the status of the seat and the profile of the candidate. In the 2017 election, the model correctly predicted many of the results (FT)
    Asian equities traded mixed overnight amid speculation around whether the planned 15th December US tariffs on Chinese goods will go ahead, despite reports of progress in trade talks. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said on Tuesday that President Trump would ‘make a decision soon’ on whether to enforce or suspend the tariffs
    Barclays Research expect the tariffs to be postponed and for a Phase I deal to be signed early next year
    Today, markets will watch the Fed meeting at 19:00 GMT. No rate change is expected, and Barclays Research believe that Fed Chair Powell is likely to continue to describe the economy as being in a ‘good place’, which should be supported by the summary of economic projections. This should be mostly neutral for markets
    Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank meets today. Barclays Research expect a 50bp cut to the Selic rate, with the bank likely to adopt a data-dependent stance

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