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  1. #1041
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 May 2019

    • US and European equities lower on US-China trade war implications
    • AUDUSD down c.0.7% overnight after dovish RBA minutes
    • Barclays Research expects two RBA cuts by August 2019


    US and European equities fell yesterday as the implications of the trade dispute between US-China weighed on technology stocks. It has also been reported that China is going to retaliate after President Trump blacklisted Huawei (Bloomberg)
    However, the US did grant Huawei a temporary general license that authorises some transactions with the Chinese firm and its non-US affiliates
    Most Asian indices rose overnight. Technology shares rebounded in the region as companies such as Samsung were speculated to benefit from Huawei’s blacklisting
    GBPUSD traded in a relatively tight range yesterday as there were no meaningful developments regarding Brexit but has come lower this morning, breaking below 1.2700, amid broad-based USD strength. Focus for GBP is the PM May’s Cabinet meeting today
    Elsewhere in FX, AUDUSD sold-off c.0.7% overnight after RBA minutes showed a distinctly more dovish stance than the latest rate decision statement. RBA Governor Lowe suggested the central bank will consider a rate cut in June if there is no improvement in employment or inflation data
    Barclays Research has now changed their baseline view and expects two cuts from the RBA this year. The first in June and another in August, bringing the key rate to another historic low of 1.0%
    The market is currently pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a cut by June 2019 and a 20% probability of a second cut in August (Barclays Research)

  2. #1042
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 May 2019

    • GBPUSD trades volatile amid Brexit developments
    • US equities higher due to increased demand for technology stocks
    • Today’s focus is the FOMC minutes released at 19:00 BST


    GBPUSD had a volatile day yesterday amid Brexit developments, initially weakening after the Farage-led Brexit party had a strong result in the European election opinion polls. In the afternoon, the pair saw a short-lived rally of c. 1% after PM May’s outlined her “new” Withdrawal deal; GBPUSD has erased all of its gains since and trades below 1.2700 this morning
    PM May offered the possibility for a second referendum on the condition that her Withdrawal deal is passed through the House of Commons
    The deal was received negatively by both of the main parties and PM May reportedly faces increased pressure to abandon her Brexit deal and quit as British PM (Bloomberg)
    US equities were higher for the first time in three days yesterday as investors increased demand for technology stocks after the US granted a three-month reprieve on its Huawei ban. However, Chinese equities dropped overnight on reports Hikvision may be included in the US blacklist (FT)
    Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai told Fox News that China “remains ready to continue talks” and they are prepared to address the imbalance in trade (Bloomberg)
    Focus today is on the release of the FOMC minutes at 19:00 BST. Barclays Research highlights that they should confirm the Fed’s “patient” stance and reflect the upbeat language on domestic activity, but also expects members to emphasize that domestic final demand growth was soft
    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index strengthened yesterday and overnight. EURUSD was lower overnight amid broad-based USD strength and EUR selling ahead of the European elections starting tomorrow

  3. #1043
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 May 2019

    • GBPUSD trades lower as leadership pressure increases after Leadsom resignation
    • Global equities have a negative day due to US-China trade tensions
    • Election results in India show an easy win for Modi and the ruling BJP party


    GBPUSD is trading at its lowest level since early January. Yesterday PM May’s final deal proposal was met with much opposition and led to fresh calls for her to resign. The pair came under further pressure after leave campaigner and House of Commons leader Leadsom resigned from the government in protest over PM May’s handling of Brexit (Bloomberg)
    The focus for GBP and EUR is the European elections that start today. Barclays Research thinks the elections are unlikely to send a clear signal in terms of Brexit
    Global equities fell yesterday as a more optimistic tone from the May FOMC minutes failed to offset uncertainty surrounding US-China trade tensions. US equities reacted negatively to reports that Chinese surveillance firm Hikvision may be included in a US blacklist (FT)
    The FOMC minutes portrayed more confidence about the US outlook and there was a broad agreement that sustained expansion of activity would be the most likely outcome, with inflation near 2% (Barclays Research)
    In data, UK inflation came in slightly lower than expected at 2.1% y/y vs. consensus 2.2% y/y, bringing the headline figure back above the Bank of England’s target. Focus for data in Europe today is E19 ‘Flash’ PMIs and German IFOs released at 09:00 BST
    In EM, the India election results have been coming in overnight and results show Narendra Modi and his ruling BJP party are due to win another five-year term. The reaction in USDINR has been fairly muted as the currency initially gapped lower before retracing losses

  4. #1044
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 May 2019

    • GBPUSD hits fresh four-month low from Brexit and UK leadership uncertainty
    • Global equities sold-off on deepening US-China trade war concerns
    • Brent c.4.5% lower as US crude inventories rise to highest level since 2017

    GBPUSD hit a fresh four-month low of 1.2606 yesterday (Bloomberg) amid Brexit uncertainty and as pressure grew on PM May to resign from her post. It was reported that PM May was rewriting her Brexit deal on Thursday afternoon in an attempt to stop a ‘full-scale revolt’ from her cabinet (FT)
    However, news reports also stated that the PM will inform her advisors this morning of the day she plans to step down, and its likely to be the week of 10th June (Bloomberg). PM May is due to meet Sir Graham Brady this morning, the head of the Conservative Party’s 1922 committee


    Global equities sold-off yesterday as investors were concerned about the impact of the ongoing US-China trade war. Technology stocks led a decline with the NASDAQ down 1.58% on the day. Also, 10-year US Treasury Yields fell to their lowest level since 2017
    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index set a new YTD high yesterday before dropping c.0.5% in the afternoon and overnight


    In commodities, Brent sold-off c.4.5% yesterday after US crude inventories rose by 4.6m barrels last week and because of the persistent ongoing US-China trade war risks. However, some of these losses retraced overnight and Brent is currently trading around $68.50 a barrel


    In data, Euro area May PMIs disappointed expectations by only marginally increasing. Germany IFO survey extended a decline in May, reaching a new multi-year low. May PMI and IFO surveys suggest that manufacturing sentiment may have bottomed out (Barclays Research)

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