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  1. #1061
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Jun 2019

    • Global equities trade higher amid easing trade tensions
    • EURUSD drops after dovish comments from ECB President Draghi
    • Markets will watch the US Fed meeting today at 19:00 BST


    Global equities traded higher yesterday and overnight following dovish comments from ECB President Draghi and after Chinese President Xi and US President Trump agreed to meet at the G20 summit next week. Trump also said he would achieve a ‘fair deal’ or no deal with China (Bloomberg)
    EURUSD moved sharply lower yesterday from c.1.1240 to c.1.1190 after ECB President Draghi indicated the potential for further stimulus. He said that the ECB could still cut rates, adjust its guidance and also had ‘considerable headroom’ for more asset purchases (Reuters)
    Following the speech, European bonds rallied and yields fell to record lows across Europe
    GBPUSD traded slightly higher yesterday ahead of the second Conservative leadership ballot, which took place in the evening. Former Foreign Secretary Johnson continued in the lead with 126 votes, whilst current Foreign Secretary Hunt came in second with 46 votes. Former Brexit Secretary Raab won just 30 votes and was eliminated
    A third ballot will take place today between 15:00 and 17:00 BST, and a fourth tomorrow if required to find the final two candidates
    Today’s focus is on the US Fed meeting at 19:00 BST. Whilst a rate cut is not expected, Barclays Research expects the committee to ‘adjust its statement to signal a move away from its current stance of “patience” to one of “flexibility” while assessing incoming information.’ This change is likely to be interpreted as a sign that rate cuts will follow, in response to further deterioration in data
    Elsewhere, US President Trump is reportedly weighing sanctions on Turkey over its purchasing of Russian S-400 missile defence systems. USDTRY spiked to c.5.9170 following the headlines, before receding partially (Bloomberg)

  2. #1062
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Jun 2019

    • Equities higher, USD lower and UST Yields fall after dovish Fed meeting
    • GBPUSD tracked higher yesterday
    • JPY strengthened after the BoJ kept rates on hold overnight


    US and Asian equities rose after the Fed adopted a more dovish stance than expected on rates. The Fed left its key rate on hold but highlighted they would monitor incoming economic data and “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”. Powell also mentioned he “is prepared to move” on rates (FT)
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell c.0.6% and US 10-year Treasury yields fell below 2% for the first time since November 2016 following the Fed meeting
    Barclays Research retain their outlook for 75bp rate cuts this year, beginning with a 50bp rate cut at the July FOMC meeting
    GBPUSD tracked higher yesterday, GBP demand increased from the wider client base and the pair outperformed into the Fed meeting. Boris Johnson gained more support in the Tory leadership contest. Johnson won 143 votes in the third round, Stewart was eliminated after receiving just 27 votes
    A fourth ballot will be held today and results are expected around 13:00 BST. There will also be a fifth ballot with results expected around 18:00 BST to decide the final two candidates
    Elsewhere in central banks, the BoJ kept rates on hold but stressed rising external risks to growth, JPY strengthened c.0.5% vs. USD overnight. Focus is on the various central bank rate decisions today
    In data, headline UK CPI eased 0.1pp to 2.0% in May. Barclays Research updated their forecast and expect UK CPI to remain at 2.0% until August. New Zealand Q1 GDP held up and expanded 0.6% q/q, in-line with expectations but above the RBNZ’s forecast. NZDUSD rallied c.0.7% overnight

  3. #1063
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Jun 2019

    • US and European equities rise as dovish central banks continue to drive markets
    • BoE unanimously vote to leave monetary policy unchanged at the June meeting
    • Our Research team expects EURNOK to grind lower towards 9.45-9.50 after the Norges meeting


    US and European equities traded broadly higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 index touching an intraday record high, after the series of dovish turns by central banks continued to drive a rally in global equity markets. The Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell c.0.5% on the day (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded marginally higher yesterday mainly driven by broad-based USD weakness. Johnson won the fourth ballot for Tory leadership after receiving 160 votes, Hunt gained 77 votes whilst Gove missed out narrowly and received 75 votes
    Conservative party members will now get to vote for PM May’s replacement between Johnson and Hunt with results expected w/c 22nd July
    In central banks, the Bank of England MPC unanimously voted to leave monetary policy unchanged at the June meeting. The key rate was left unchanged at 75bp but they did flag downside risks from the current global outlook and cut its Q2 domestic growth forecast to 0.0%
    Barclays Research maintain their view of unchanged rates through 2019 and 2020
    Elsewhere, the Norges Bank raised its policy rate to 1.25% at its June meeting and signalled that “the policy will most likely be increased further in the course of 2019” as the robust domestic economy offsets external downside risks. Barclays Research expects an additional 25bp hike in December
    Our Research team also expect EURNOK to grind lower towards 9.45-9.50 but not much further given a challenging global backdrop and already long NOK positioning
    In commodities, Brent traded c.3% higher yesterday as US-Iran tensions continue to escalate after Iran said it had shot down a US Navy drone (FT). It was reported overnight that US President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation but has since pulled back (Bloomberg)

  4. #1064
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 Jun 2019

    • Focus is on G20 US-China trade talks this week
    • GBPUSD will likely be driven by month-end flows this week
    • Turkish opposition candidate Imamoglu won the Istanbul mayoral election yesterday


    US equities traded marginally lower on Friday as investors measured the implications of tensions in the Middle East (FT). The US will impose major new sanctions on Iran today but Trump said he is ready to talk with no preconditions (Bloomberg)
    Brent crude extended its biggest weekly gain in over two years, trading above c. $65 on Friday (Bloomberg)
    US-China trade talks between Lighthizer and He are expected to resume this week, but the Trump-Xi meeting on 28-29 June at the G20 summit will likely give future direction to talks
    GBPUSD will likely be driven by month-end flows this week with our Research team’s preliminary analysis suggesting strong buying vs. USD
    According to Bloomberg, a Mail on Sunday survey showed Hunt has overtaken Johnson in popularity among the general public for the Tory leadership position, with Johnson’s support among Tory backers narrowing since Thursday
    In EM, Turkish opposition candidate Imamoglu won the Istanbul mayoral election yesterday. According to state media, Imamoglu beat the ruling AK Party’s Yildirim 54%-45%. USDTRY has traded down to below 5.7200 as a result (Bloomberg)
    Markets will look to Fed speakers including Powell, Williams and Bullard, as well as May PCE and durable goods data to firm up the pricing for US rate cuts over the next few months. Markets are currently pricing in 30bp of cuts by July, 50bp by September and 96bp over one year
    Elsewhere, reduction in long USD positioning has already led to sharp gains in North Asian FX, ZAR and RUB. These currencies may consolidate this week as investors take some risk off before the G20 meeting (Barclays Research)

  5. #1065
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 Jun 2019

    • Global stocks broadly lower as US-Iran tensions continue to rise
    • The Bloomberg USD Spot Index hits three-month lows
    • Barclays Research releases updated FX Forecasts


    Global stocks traded broadly lower yesterday and overnight after Trump’s imposition of additional sanctions on Iran weighed on risk sentiment. Iran reportedly suggested that these sanctions are closing off diplomatic solutions with Washington (Bloomberg)
    Markets will watch the G20 talks beginning on Friday in Osaka, with particular focus on the meeting between US and China Presidents Trump and Jinping (FT)
    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped to its lowest level since March 2019 (Bloomberg) amid the US-Iran tensions and as investors await numerous Fed speakers today. Investors also sought safe havens as US Treasuries, Gold and JPY rallied
    Elsewhere, NZD outperformed versus all major peers overnight after a government report showed their trade surplus rose to NZD264m in May and exports reached record highs
    GBPUSD had a relatively volatile day yesterday but closed at broadly unchanged levels. Tory leadership frontrunner Boris Johnson told the BBC he believed the British Parliament would now support a no-deal Brexit, despite senior figures in his Conservative Party threatening to stop this
    Barclays Research published their FX Forecasts this morning (see table above). Overall, our Research team expects global growth deceleration, expanding risks and a proactive Fed to lead – finally – to some directionality in G10 FX, with sustained, but further-differentiated, EM FX underperformance

  6. #1066
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 26 Jun 2019

    • Global stocks broadly lower on Fed comments
    • RBNZ holds policy but notes further cuts may be needed over time
    • Focus is on US durable and capital goods data released at 13:30 BST


    Global stocks traded broadly lower yesterday and overnight after Fed President Bullard downplayed the need for a 50bp US interest rate cut in July. This move came despite Fed Chair Powell reinforcing the Fed’s dovish signals last week (Bloomberg)
    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallied c.0.3% off of three-month lows following the comments from Fed officials
    Markets will now watch the US durable and capital goods data released today at 13:30 BST for any further indication of future US monetary policy
    In terms of the US-China trade tensions, it was reported by Bloomberg that the US is willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on an additional $300bn of Chinese goods while they prepare to resume negotiations at the G-20 summit from the 28-29th June (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded c.0.5% lower yesterday amid the USD strength and as Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson issued a “do or die” pledge to leave the EU with or without a deal on 31st October. Johnson has recently shaken up his campaign team in the leadership contest after his campaign was hit by reports about his private life and criticism of his Brexit strategy (FT)
    Outside of politics, markets will watch a speech by BoE Governor Carney today at 10:15 BST, where he will answer questions on the Inflation Report to lawmakers
    In central banks, the RBNZ kept policy unchanged, but stated a further cut may be needed “over time” as global and domestic growth slows. NZDUSD initially gapped c.0.6% lower before erasing all losses and trading higher throughout the morning (Bloomberg)

  7. #1067
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 27 Jun 2019

    • Asian stocks gained overnight after US-China tentative truce reports
    • Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson softens his Brexit rhetoric
    • US durable goods orders came in weaker-than-expected at 1.3% m/m in May


    US-China trade tensions weighed on most US equities yesterday, Asian stocks however benefitted from reports of a ‘tentative truce’ ahead of the G20 meeting (FT)
    US President Trump and Chinese President XI Jinping are expected to meet at the G20 at 11:30 BST on 29th June
    AUD advanced versus all of its G10 peers amid reports of the tentative truce. Elsewhere, JPY and US Treasuries fell as traders sought to square positions ahead of the G20
    In the UK, Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson softened his Brexit rhetoric from the day before by saying the chances are “a million to one against” the UK leaving without a deal come 31st October. Johnson also agreed with leadership rival Hunt that a general election before the Brexit deadline would be “absolutely crazy” (Bloomberg)
    In data, US durable goods orders moved down 1.3% m/m in May following a downwardly revised decline of 2.8% m/m in April, this was weaker-than-expected by both Barclays Research and market consensus
    Elsewhere, Brent crude continued to rise, tracking above $66 a barrel as attention remains on tense geopolitics in the Middle East with Iran supposedly set to breach the 2015 nuclear deal for the first time today (Bloomberg)

  8. #1068
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 28 June 2019

    • Asian equities slightly lower as caution remains high on US-China trade talks
    • Johnson refuses to rule out suspending Parliament in order to force through a no-deal
    • Barclays Research revises their RBA call and expects a 25bp cut in July


    Asian equities traded marginally lower overnight as investors remain cautious about the meeting between US-China Presidents Trump and Xi. Larry Kudlow, economic advisor to President Trump, said there were no preconditions for the meeting and that additional tariffs are still possible (FT)
    The Presidents are expected to meet at the G20 on 29th June at 11:30 BST
    The reaction in FX was broadly muted, however JPY marginally strengthened c.0.2% versus the USD overnight and CHF also traded higher

    In UK politics, Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson refused to rule out suspending Parliament in order to force through a no-deal on 31st October. On the other hand, Johnson’s rival Hunt said he would push through a no-deal if it was the only option (Bloomberg)

    In data, the third estimate of US Q1 GDP remained unchanged at 3.1% as revisions to certain sub-components offset each other. The broad contours of the report were unchanged and reflect strong headline growth tempered by soft domestic demand (Barclays Research)
    Focus for data today is the UK Q1 Final GDP released at 09:30 BST and US PCE data released at 13:30 BST

    Our Research team moved forward their rate cut call for the RBA and now expect a 25bp cut in July after the Governor’s messaging in recent days appears more dovish than expected. The market is currently pricing in a 71% probability of a cut in July

  9. #1069
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 July 2019

    • Asian equities higher after the US and China reach a trade truce
    • TRY rallies as President Trump says the US may reassess US sanctions on Turkey
    • This week’s focus is on US employment data on Friday


    Asian equities rose overnight after the US and China reached a truce in the trade war and agreed to resume negotiations that broke down in May. The US will now hold off on new tariffs and scale back restrictions on Huawei (FT)

    The risk-on market sentiment saw JPY fall versus the USD and US 10-year Treasury yields increase. The positive reaction in CNH was however partially offset by disappointing Chinese manufacturing data overnight. China’s manufacturing PMI held at 49.4 for a second month, below expectations
    AUDUSD and NZDUSD weakened as a result of the weaker-than-expected China manufacturing print overnight

    GBPUSD has traded lower off of Friday’s c.1.27 close and is currently below 1.2670. Barclays Research expects GBP to continue grinding lower as markets continuously re-assess the perceived likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Tory Leadership contestant Hunt is expected to set out a detailed 10-point plan today for mitigating the disruption of crashing out of the EU (Bloomberg)
    Major data releases are likely to drive the USD this week. Barclays Research forecast Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls to have increased 150k in June

    Brent rallied, after gapping lower, as Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to extend a production agreement for at least another six months. OPEC have started their two-day meeting in Vienna, with the cartel gathering to discuss the output cut extension and finalise the details (Bloomberg)

    In EM, TRY gained c.1% versus the USD after President Trump said the US may reassess US sanctions on Turkey. Elsewhere, BRL underperformed its EM peers last week as the Special Committee in the Lower House delayed the presentation of an updated report on the pension bill

  10. #1070
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 July 2019

    • US and European equities rally following US-China trade optimism
    • Barclays Research’s global manufacturing confidence index extended its decline in June
    • RBA cuts rates by 25bps as expected


    US and European equities rallied yesterday with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high of 2977.93 after the US-China reached a trade truce at the G20 summit over the weekend
    Optimism was dampened overnight after the US announced it was considering imposing additional tariffs on EU goods worth $4 billion in retaliation for subsidiaries paid to Airbus

    In data, US ISM manufacturing sentiment continued to deteriorate in June, indicating that growth in US manufacturing will be very soft, at best, in the coming months (Barclays Research)
    Barclays Research’s global manufacturing confidence index extended its decline in June (-0.38), firmly breaking “support” levels of the 2015-16 industrial recession

    AUDUSD reversed some of Monday’s losses after the RBA cut rates by 25bps to a record low of 1.00% as expected but indicated it would watch economic data before deciding on further easing
    Barclays Research have no further cuts penciled in and expects any short term asset gains to be capped by profit taking. Today’s focus is on Governor Lowe’s speech at 10:30 BST

    In Europe, Italy’s government agreed to aim for a 2019 budget deficit of 2.04% instead of 2.40% previously expected in April. In EM, TRY extended gains further against the USD as market positive statements regarding US-Turkey relations at the G20 led to heavy inflows from investors into TRY

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