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  1. #1071
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 03 July 2019

    • Asian equities broadly lower as a sharp fall in oil prices negatively effects energy stocks
    • Safe haven demand increases after BoE Chief Carney’s speech
    • Johnson and Hunt vow no new borders will emerge between Northern Ireland and Britain


    Asian equities traded broadly lower overnight, despite US equities staying close to record highs, as a sharp fall in oil prices had a negative effect on energy stocks across the region. Brent crude sold-off c.4% after the International Energy Agency lowered its estimate for global oil demand this year, to 1.2m barrels a day from 1.3m b/b, citing a “vulnerable global economy” (FT)
    GBPUSD was marginally lower yesterday; BOE Chief Carney said in a speech that “a global trade war and a no deal Brexit remain growing possibilities not certainties” and acknowledged that mounting global uncertainty might prompt policy actions from central banks

    Investors sought safe havens after Carney’s speech with JPY and CHF trading higher. UK Gilts and US Treasuries also rallied with US 10-year yields falling c.2bps below 2.00% and reaching fresh 3-year lows
    In UK politics, Tory leadership candidates Johnson and Hunt both vowed to rip up the Irish backstop clause and make sure no new borders emerge between Northern Ireland and Britain as a result of Brexit. It has also been reported that Johnson is going to make a commitment today to launch a review of “sin stealth taxes” (FT)

    In European politics, Christine Lagarde, the current chairwomen of the IMF, was nominated to lead the ECB and Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s Minister of Defence, was nominated to be the next European Commission head. EURUSD one-year volatility reached the lowest since 2007 of 5.9125 as traders reportedly factored in greater likelihood the ECB will now turn dovish (Bloomberg)

  2. #1072
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 July 2019

    • Global equities higher with the US S&P 500 closing at record highs
    • USD tracks lower after President Trump tweets about China and Europe “currency manipulation”
    • SEK strengthened as Riksbank holds repo rates but makes no downward revision to rate path


    Global equities traded high yesterday with the S&P 500 closing at record highs, as the prospect of looser monetary policy globally sparked positivity amongst investors. These expectations have been furthered since Lagarde was nominated to be the next president of the ECB
    10-year US Treasury yields, 10-year German Bund yields and 10-year Gilt yields were all lower on the day

    In FX, the USD had a relatively volatile day after President Trump said the US should match China and Europe at their “big currency manipulation game” (Bloomberg). The Bloomberg USD Spot Index initially tracked lower on these comments but has since erased some losses
    As US markets are shut today, we expect a lack of participation in markets and movements in the FX market to be predominantly flow based

    In data, the US Trade deficit widened to $55.5bn in May, above expectations and slightly above Barclays Research’s forecast of $59.4bn
    On the other hand, our Research team released their June employment data preview and expect nonfarm payrolls to rebound and increase by 150k on Friday

    In central banks, the Riksbank kept its repo rate unchanged at -0.25%, as widely expected. However, Barclays Research highlights it surprised markets by making no downward revisions to its projected rate path, maintaining that the next hike will likely come towards the end of the year
    EURSEK sold-off c.0.3% after the decision but our Research team now expect markets to fade the hawkish rhetoric and for EURSEK to appreciate

  3. #1073
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 05 July 2019

    • Markets will watch the release of US labour data today at 13:30 BST
    • Barclays Research expects a rise of 150k in the headline number
    • In the UK, some Conservative MPs are reportedly preparing for an October election


    Asian equities held near two month highs overnight ahead of the release of US labour data today at 13:30 BST. Barclays Research expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 150k – an increase from the soft print in May – as they believe that an improvement in services employment will boost the overall number. They expect the unemployment rate to remain at 3.6%
    A weaker than expected number would increase expectations of a 50bp Fed rate cut in July, whereas a stronger number could fuel speculation of a smaller 25bp cut, or no cut at all (Reuters)

    In FX, GBPUSD traded sideways yesterday, in a tight range between 1.2569 and 1.2591 (Bloomberg) as the US was out for Independence day. Today, price action is likely to be driven by USD moves following the labour report

    In UK politics, a number of Conservative MPs are preparing for an election in October, claiming that if Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister, he will be forced to call an election to increase his majority in Parliament (FT)

    The Tories currently have a working majority of 5 MPs, including the DUP through the ‘confidence and supply’ agreement. However it is thought that some MPs could vote against the Government if an October no-deal became policy (The Telegraph)

  4. #1074
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 July 2019

    • Global equities trade lower amid stronger than expected US labour report
    • Barclays Research revises Fed outlook and expects a 25bp cut in July
    • TRY drops after President Erdogan replaces the central bank’s governor


    Global equities dropped on Friday and overnight after a stronger than expected US labour report tempered expectations for future Fed rate cuts. At the same time, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index rallied as investors priced out odds of a 50bp rate cut in July

    Friday’s US employment report revealed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 224k in June, well above consensus expectation of 160k. Further to this release and alongside the US-China rapprochement following the G20 summit, Barclays Research revised their outlook and now expects a 25bp cut in the Fed funds rate in July, versus 50bp previously
    This week markets will focus on FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Fed chair Powell’s testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday

    GBPUSD dropped to below 1.2500 on Friday before erasing some of the losses, led primarily by USD price action. Looking ahead, headline risk remains elevated as the UK Conservative Party members vote to choose May’s successor. A YouGov poll showed that 74% of Tories support frontrunner Johnson, while 26% back his opponent Hunt (Bloomberg)
    While the leadership contest has yet to conclude, Barclays Research sees that “investor focus has already shifted toward the prospect of a general election before year-end”

    TRY plunged overnight after the Turkish President Erdogan decided to replace the central bank’s governor. This reportedly raises concerns that the regulator will lower borrowing costs more than expected (Bloomberg)
    USDTRY jumped c.3.5% to reach a high of 5.8247 overnight (Bloomberg) before paring gains slightly

  5. #1075
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 July 2019

    • Global equities trade broadly lower ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony tomorrow
    • UK Conservative leadership contest poses headline risk to GBPUSD
    • Barclays Research has revised FX forecasts


    Global equities traded broadly lower yesterday and technology stocks underperformed following a rating downgrade of Apple Inc (Bloomberg). In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index was little changed as investors await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on the state of the economy tomorrow
    AUDUSD underperformed after the Australian NAB business survey came in lower than expected at +2, although worth noting this refers to the time period pre the G20 meeting
    In the UK, MP Grieve proposed an amendment requiring Parliament to be in session every two weeks from 9th October in order to prevent the next PM from suspending the legislature to achieve a no-deal Brexit. This amendment could be voted on today if it is selected by the speaker
    With regards to the Conservative leadership contest, today’s focus is on a live televised debate between front-runner Johnson and Hunt today at 20.00 BST
    Meanwhile, GBPUSD closed marginally lower yesterday and broke below 1.25 this morning
    Barclays Research has revised their FX forecasts “in response to better-than-expected developments at the G20 and in US data (…) moderating our forecasts for the USD in both directions: removing near-term depreciation and softening longer-term appreciation. Yen outperformance and EUR and EM underperformance are reduced in the new forecasts”
    12 months GBPUSD and EURUSD forecasts are now at 1.23 and 1.08 vs 1.20 and 1.06 previously. The EURGBP forecast remains unchanged at 0.88
    Our Research team also highlights that “despite the G20, we do not see a reduction in trade policy risks, even if our new base case has an improved near-term outlook”

  6. #1076
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 July 2019

    • Focus on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at 15:00 BST today
    • UK leadership contest continues to make headlines
    • MXN underperforms vs USD after Mexico’s finance minister resigned


    US equities saw a mixed performance yesterday followed by a subdued session in Asia overnight as investors await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress on the economic outlook today and tomorrow. The Bloomberg USD Spot Index and US Treasury yields rose
    Meanwhile, US and Chinese negotiators restarted trade talks with a phone call between Lighthizer, Mnuchin and their Chinese counterparts
    Focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony in Congress today and tomorrow. Barclays Research thinks “the message by the Fed to ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’ likely will be reiterated”
    Our Research team also believes that “markets could assign somewhat less weight to the minutes following last week’s labour market data and G20 developments”
    In the UK, the House of Commons approved Grieve’s amendment which could prevent the next PM from forcing through a no-deal Brexit. In yesterday evening’s TV debate, frontrunner Johnson stated that he cannot rule out suspending Parliament to deliver Brexit on time, while his opponent Hunt indicated he would not like a general election until Brexit was delivered
    Meanwhile, GBPUSD weakened yesterday hitting a low of 1.2440 in the afternoon (Bloomberg)
    In EM, MXN dropped vs the USD by more than 2.0% on reports that Mexico’s finance minister Urzua abruptly resigned. The peso rebounded partially after the current finance undersecretary Herrera was nominated as his successor

  7. #1077
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 July 2019

    • Fed Chair Powell sends a dovish message in his testimony
    • Bank of Canada keeps policy rate unchanged
    • Focus on BoE Governor Carney’s speech at 11:00 BST and US CPI at 13:30 BST


    US equities traded higher and the S&P passed the 3000 level for the first time after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony highlighted persistent risks to the economy, bolstering the case for additional policy accommodation. Asian stocks followed the trend and also made gains overnight (Bloomberg)
    US Treasury yields fell and the Bloomberg USD Spot Index weakened
    The minutes from the June FOMC meeting supported Fed Chair Powell’s dovish testimony, highlighting participants’ concerns about soft inflation and downside risks. Barclays Research retains the forecast of a 25bp cut in July, followed by an additional 50bps of cuts by year-end
    GBPUSD gained yesterday amid broad-based USD weakness. Besides the ongoing headline risk from the Conservative leadership contest, markets will also watch the BoE’s Financial Stability Report released at 10:30 BST today followed by a speech by Governor Carney at 11:00 BST
    The Bank of Canada kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected, but has become more cautious on the external outlook. Despite the concerns, Barclays Research highlights “the BoC showed little readiness to consider policy easing in the near term (…) but left the door open for policy accommodation if the external backdrop deteriorates further”
    Our Research team expects the BoC to stay on hold for now, with trade—related risks postponed until the end of the year

  8. #1078
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 July 2019

    • Asian equities mixed amid negative comments from President Trump on trade
    • US CPI comes out stronger than expected
    • Markets will watch the release of E19 IP data today at 10:00 BST


    Asian equities traded mixed overnight as US-China trade tensions resurfaced. President Trump complained that China hadn’t increased its purchases of American farm products – a promise he said he had secured with President Xi at the G20 summit
    In FX, JPY strengthened against the USD overnight amid wider safe-haven demand
    US CPI was released yesterday, with the headline figure stronger than expected at 0.1% m/m, and core CPI up 0.3% m/m. Despite the better than expected data, Barclays Research remain cautious as to whether this is a one-off increase, given that much of the rebound in core goods inflation was driven by volatile components
    Following Powell’s dovish testimony in Congress, speeches by other FOMC voters yesterday further solidified the likelihood of Fed cuts. New York Fed Chair Williams said that the case for easing has ‘strengthened over time’ whilst Board Member Brainard also made dovish remarks (Bloomberg)
    Today markets will watch the release of E19 Industrial Production data at 10:00 BST. Barclays Research are below consensus following the contraction in German IP on Monday. They expect -0.4% m/m, whereas the market is expecting 0.2% m/m

  9. #1079
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 July 2019

    • US equities reach a fresh record high on Friday; Chinese stocks gain amid data releases
    • AUDUSD and NZDUSD gain after China’s data release and amid broad-based USD weakness
    • Focus this week is on key data releases in G10 countries and several EM central banks


    US equities closed higher last week, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high of 3013.92, as the prospect of fresh economic stimulus from global central banks continued to fuel investor positivity
    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed c.0.3% lower further to dovish Fed speeches from Fed Presidents Barkin and Evans on Friday highlighting potential downside risks to inflation and growth
    Chinese stocks marginally gained overnight after Chinese growth came in at 6.2% in Q2, in-line with market expectations. However, this was the slowest quarterly expansion in almost 27 years. June activity surprised to the upside with factory output, retail sales and investment all exceeding market expectations
    Barclays Research expects growth momentum to continue to moderate in H2 and GDP y/y growth to slow from 6.2% in Q2 to 6.0% and 5.7% in Q3 and Q4, respectively
    NZD and AUD reacted positively to the data release and extended gains versus the USD
    In the UK, as polls are showing Boris Johnson is in the lead to be the next PM, our Research team thinks “recent dovish BoE comments and weak data could gain more traction and weigh on GBP this week.” The Tory leadership contest results are scheduled to be released next week
    In EM, Turkish President Erdogan downplayed the risk of US sanctions over the weekend, following the S-400 missile defence system purchase from Russia. Erdogan said President Trump does not favour sanctions despite the support from some US officials (Bloomberg)

  10. #1080
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 July 2019

    • US stocks marginally gain ahead of US corporates quarterly earnings reports
    • NZDUSD climbs to three-month high after inflation report
    • Markets await UK employment data, US retail sales and US corporate earnings today


    US stocks marginally gained yesterday ahead of the quarterly earnings reports due to be released by a variety of US corporates today and incoming days (FT). Markets will also be watching US retail sales released at 13:30 BST
    In terms of US-China trade negotiations, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer may travel to Beijing for trade negotiations if talks by phone this week are productive
    In Brexit news, a recent encounter between UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier reportedly did not go well and could harden the EU’s stance on Brexit (Bloomberg). Also, von der Leyen, incoming EU President due to be voted in today, said she would support a further Brexit extension for ‘good reasons’
    Meanwhile, GBPUSD traded c.0.4% lower yesterday to 1.2520. Today’s focus is on the UK labour market data released at 09:30 BST
    NZDUSD reached a three-month high of 0.6738 (Bloomberg) overnight after a report showed inflation accelerated last quarter, easing investor concern the central bank will have to make a series of interest rate cuts
    In central banks, RBA minutes from its 2nd July meeting were released overnight indicating the committee is focused on the jobs market and said it will cut rates “if needed”
    Barclays Research maintains their view that the RBA is likely to be data dependent, primarily looking at labour market data with this Thursday’s unemployment print in focus

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