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  1. #981
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Feb 2019

    • Asian and US equities trade mostly higher ahead of further trade talks today
    • GBPUSD trades sideways amid varied news
    • AUDUSD traded in a wide range overnight with mixed headlines


    Asian and US equities were mostly higher yesterday as trade negotiations continue in Washington. Today US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Trade representative Lighthizer and China’s Vice Premier He will meet to continue the discussions, after lower-level talks earlier in the week (Bloomberg)
    The S&P 500 was up c.0.18% and in Asia the Hang Seng was up c.0.3% although China’s CSI 300 traded c.0.27% lower after earlier moves higher (Bloomberg)

    In FX, AUDUSD had a tumultuous day of trading overnight, initially gaining on a positive jobs report in Australia, but falling after a forecast that showed the RBA would cut rates in August and November. AUD fell further after a report citing an official as saying that one of China’s ports had banned the import of Australian Coal (FT)

    GBPUSD traded through 1.3100 yesterday before retracing overnight. News yesterday morning that three Conservative MPs had defected to the newly formed Independent Group weighed on Sterling, but it traded higher during talks between UK PM May and EC President Juncker, which were later described as ‘constructive’ (Bloomberg)
    Yesterday Fitch cautioned that it may cut the UK’s Sovereign rating as it believes there is ‘heightened uncertainty’ over the outcome of the Brexit process (FT)

    The FOMC Minutes from the meeting on 30th January were released overnight, and indicated that the Fed’s balance sheet normalization would be completed sooner than expected, by the end of the year. The minutes also mentioned that ‘many participants’ saw the outlook as uncertain enough such that they were not clear on what further adjustment to the policy rate path would be needed

  2. #982
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Feb 2019

    • Most Asian equities trade higher ahead of trade talks with US President Trump today
    • GBPUSD was broadly unchanged despite intraday volatility
    • Markets will watch the various Fed speakers today


    Asian equities traded mostly higher overnight, with China’s CSI 300 up c.2.2% ahead of a meeting today between US President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier He, signalling optimism that discussions are making enough progress to warrant another discussion with President Trump (Bloomberg)
    Any progress with trade talks today will be key as the 1st March deadline draws closer, after which US tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports will rise from 10% to 25%

    GBPUSD was broadly unchanged yesterday despite some intraday moves, as markets struggle to find direction after a week of little progress on Brexit talks. This comes amid reports today that up to 30 MPs could rebel against the Government in a bid to prevent a ‘no deal’ Brexit (BBC)

    EURUSD traded sideways yesterday despite better than expected E19 Services PMI data (52.3 actual, 51.2 consensus, 51.2 previous). However Manufacturing PMI’s continue to disappoint (49.2 actual, 50.3 consensus, 50.5 previous). German GDP came in as-expected this morning (Bloomberg)
    Later today we get German IFO Business Climate data, E19 Final HICP as well as a speech from ECB President Draghi, who speaks at an event in Italy at 15:30 today.

    Markets will watch the various Fed Presidents speak today for further clarity on FOMC thinking after the minutes were published earlier in the week. A total of 5 Fed Presidents will speak at various events across the US (Bloomberg)

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