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  1. #1021
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 Apr 2019

    • US equities close lower after worse-than-expected corporate earnings
    • UK inflation data surprises to the downside
    • Markets will watch E19 “Flash” PMI data today at 09:00 BST


    US equities closed slightly lower yesterday after worse-than-expected corporate earnings figures. Their Asian counterparts also came under pressure overnight despite reports that Presidents Trump and Xi could possibly endorse a trade deal as soon as 27th May 2019 (Reuters)
    In data, the US February Trade Balance was narrower than expected, falling to an eight-month low
    GBPUSD traded in a tight range yesterday between c.1.3030 – 1.3070 amid a lack of Brexit-related news. UK data released yesterday came out slightly below expectations with CPI at 1.9% YoY compared to the market consensus of 2.0% YoY
    Following the release, Barclays Research revised the core CPI inflation forecast down for 2019 by 0.1pp to 1.9% as lagged GBP appreciation will likely weigh on core goods inflation
    Looking ahead, UK Retail Sales are released today at 09:30 BST. Following strength in the first two months of the year, credit card spending data and retail surveys have signalled a more subdued outlook for March
    Markets will also watch the E19 “Flash” PMI data today at 09:00 BST. Barclays Research expects composite PMI to continue its trend higher because of strong services activity, while manufacturing sentiment should show signs of bottoming out
    Elsewhere, Brent oil prices fell slightly yesterday after a US Government report which showed that inventories were not as low as an industry report had suggested on Tuesday (Reuters)

  2. #1022
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Apr 2019

    • Asian equities trade marginally higher as energy stocks outperform on rising oil prices
    • Brexit headlines likely as UK Parliament returns from Easter recess today
    • Focus for the week is on various central bank rate decisions


    US equities closed largely unchanged yesterday ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings. Their Asian counterparts rose marginally overnight with energy stocks outperforming after Brent prices rallied c.3% yesterday to $74.52 a barrel, the highest since November 2018
    The oil price rally was triggered by reports that the US will end waivers that allow major oil importing nations to buy from Iran and said countries including India and China would face penalties if they continue to import Iranian oil
    GBPUSD continued to trade in a tight range yesterday as the UK markets were closed for Easter holidays. Barclays Research expects GBP volatility to increase as the UK House of Commons returns from recess today. Cross-party talks between PM May and Labour leader Corbyn are set to resume
    Headline risk surrounding the leadership pressure on PM May will likely remain elevated and reports this morning indicate that she may be forced out of office if a deal cannot be agreed before European Parliament polls on 23rd May (Bloomberg)
    In data, US March housing starts were below expectations yesterday amid downward revisions to prior data, and as existing home sales retraced their February bounce. Barclays Research has left their Q1 GDP tracker for the US unchanged at 2.5% q/q saar
    Focus this week is on the various central bank meetings in DM and EM. Barclays Research expects that these are unlikely to disturb the current risk sentiment and all DM and EM central banks to keep their policies unchanged

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