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  1. #1131
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Oct 2019

    • Asian stocks in the red overnight
    • US-China trade talks are set to resume this week
    • The market will look for clues ahead of the October FOMC meeting


    sian stocks and the Chinese Renminbi traded lower overnight following a report that Beijing is reluctant to agree a broad deal with the US, and said that the range of topics they are willing to discuss has narrowed considerably. US-China trade discussions are to resume later this week, just days before the latest threat of increased tariffs on Chinese imports are due to take effect, where levies on USD 250bn on Chinese goods will rise from 25% to 30% on 15th October (FT)
    Barclays Research baseline for US-China trade is that a “full” deal remains out of reach, a “narrow” deal, with agri purchases from China in exchange for some tariff relief, may be viable
    USDJPY also traded lower on demand for safe haven assets but has since regained most of its losses
    GBPUSD traded down to 1.2276 on Friday before reversing most of this and ending the day at 1.2333. Brexit remains in focus after the UK government sent a new proposal to the EU, met with mixed reactions so far. PM Johnson struck a defiant tone yesterday, once again repeating that the UK will leave the EU on 31st October (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research maintains the view that no deal is still the most likely scenario, potentially after a short delay, and remains bearish on GBP and EUR.
    This week the market will turn its attention to FOMC speakers and US CPI data, searching for clues ahead of the October FOMC meeting. We also receive the September meeting minutes on Wednesday. The market is currently pricing in around 75% chance of a cut in October. Barclays Research expect a 50bp cut by January 2020, with cuts in December and January

  2. #1132
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 Oct 2019

    • Asian stocks in the green this morning
    • The Turkish lira has sold off 2.5% on headlines around Syrian operations
    • A Scottish court ruled in PM Johnson’s favour


    Asian stocks traded higher overnight with Chinese stocks making modest increases after a week-long holiday and strong earnings figures fueling a rally for regional tech companies. US Treasury yields traded higher, USDJPY moved higher and gold fell overnight on signs of optimism ahead of the US-China trade talks, on reports that Beijing is prepared to work through tough negotiations (Bloomberg)
    Risk sentiment improved despite the news that the US has blacklisted 28 Chinese entities who primarily are involved in surveillance and artificial intelligence
    Brent crude oil traded 1.14% higher yesterday and overnight, touching 59.68 USD per barrel yesterday evening on supply worries
    In FX, EURUSD weakened yesterday morning, touching 1.0962, on the back of another disappointing set of factory orders from Germany. Orders fell 0.6% (Consensus: -0.3%) in August, keeping the region’s largest economy on pace to enter recession in the third quarter of 2020. The pair retraced back during the day and closed the day roughly unchanged
    German Industrial Production released this morning came in higher than consensus. It came in at 0.3% m/m (-4.0% y/y) beating expectations at 0.0% m/m (-4.3% y/y)
    EURSEK and EURNOK reached highs yesterday after Norway industrial production fell to -9.2% y/y (Jul print -5.7%). EURSEK traded up to 10.8971, levels not seen since 2009 while EURNOK touched 10.0454, last seen in late August (Bloomberg)
    The Turkish lira sold off 2.5% versus the USD yesterday and overnight as Turkey prepared to launch operations in Syria. Later in the day President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Turkey’s economy if they launched operations he deemed “off limits” (FT)
    GBPUSD traded in a 0.4% range yesterday on political headlines. A Scottish court rejected a demand threatening PM Johnson with fines and imprisonment if he did not comply with the Benn Act. They ruled that his “unequivocal assurances” to seek an extension to the Brexit deadline were sufficient. There were also headlines out that the PM have stepped up preparations for a general election (FT)

  3. #1133
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 Oct 2019

    • Asian stocks traded lower over US-China trade tensions
    • GBPUSD trades down to a one month lows
    • Markets turn its attention to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes at 19:00 BST


    Asian stocks traded lower overnight as US-China trade tensions escalated after the US imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials involved in the mass detention of Uighurs. This came just days prior to the high level trade talks between US and China, due to resume 10-11th October (FT)
    In FX, the USD and safe haven currencies outperformed amid the markets concern around US-China trade discussions as they moved ahead with discussions on capital flow restrictions to China. EURJPY traded around 0.25% lower and EURCHF was roughly 0.2% lower on the day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded c.0.15% stronger over the London session (Bloomberg)
    USDTRY had another ‘headlines’ driven session yesterday and the currency pair experienced large swings of around 0.8% during the day, after mixed messages from President Trump
    GBPUSD traded down to one month lows of around 1.2200 yesterday as the UK stepped up preparations for a no-deal Brexit at on the 31st October. There were headlines out around a call between PM Johnson and German Chancellor Merkel, where the PM said that reaching a withdrawal agreement is essentially impossible if the EU demands Northern Ireland must stay in the EU’s customs union (Bloomberg)
    US Fed Chair Powell said yesterday that the Fed will expand its balance sheet by buying short-term US Treasuries in order to keep the money market calm after the recent spike in the repo rate however Powell noted that “this is not QE”. Chicago Fed Chief Evans said that he "wouldn't mind another cut" of 25 basis points
    Later today the markets turns its attention to the release of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in September, when the bank cut rates by 25 bp, to look for any clues ahead of the October meeting

  4. #1134
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 Oct 2019

    • US-China trade talks are set to resume today
    • Risk sentiment improved as optimism over a partial trade deal rose
    • GBPUSD spiked briefly yesterday on mixed headlines


    Asian stocks have regained earlier losses after a choppy session overnight amid mixed headlines around US-China trade discussions. Markets will focus on the high level discussions between US and China which are set to resume today (FT)
    Barclays Research baseline for US-China trade is that a “full” deal remains out of reach and that a “narrow” deal may be viable
    In FX, the safe haven currencies JPY and CHF came under pressure as optimism over a partial trade deal between US-China trade rose. USDJPY traded c.0.35% higher and USDCHF traded c.0.3% higher yesterday but the CHF strengthened overnight reversing the gains. The Chinese Renminbi gained versus the USD, trading c.0.35% stronger
    As risk sentiment improved overnight, both AUD and NZD strengthened versus the USD. AUDUSD traded c.0.3% higher and NZDUSD c.0.35% stronger (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD saw a spike yesterday morning on headlines suggesting the EU were ready to make a concession on the Irish backstop. The pair briefly touched 1.2291 before retracing the gains as the DUP rejected the concession. Today PM Johnson is set to meet with Irish PM Varadkar and Brexit Secretary Barclay is to meet with EU Chief negotiator Barnier (Bloomberg)
    Fed minutes released yesterday did not reveal much new information, they showed that some but not all Fed officials were supportive of the September cut. The underlying theme justifying the cut included global risks, trade policy uncertainty and external headwinds to the US economy. The market is currently pricing in around 80% chance of a cut on 30th October (Bloomberg). Barclays Research expects cuts in December and January
    We will receive ECB meeting minutes today at 12:30 BST. Some members of the General Council advised against the restarting of the bond purchase program and the minutes could give more insight to this debate (FT)

  5. #1135
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Oct 2019

    • GBPUSD strengthened more than 2% on positive headlines around Brexit
    • Asian stocks rose overnight amid optimism around a US-China trade deal
    • Barnier will meet with Varadkar and Barclay today


    Asian stocks rose overnight amid optimism around a trade deal after the first day of trade talks, which President Trump said went “very well”. Both the US and China signaled that a partial deal could lead to a temporary tariff truce. These positive signs helped the S&P 500 close 0.6% higher yesterday while gold sold off c.0.8% amid improved risk sentiment (Bloomberg)
    The trade talks will continue today and President Trump is set to meet with Vice Premier Liu He
    Oil traded higher yesterday and overnight following optimism around trade talks and after the head of OPEC said they could take action to balance oil markets, such as deeper cuts in oil supplies (Reuters). Brent crude traded c.2.7% stronger and is currently trading around 60.4 USD per barrel (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD strengthened over 2% yesterday and overnight amid positive Brexit developments. The currency pair is currently trading around 1.2460 (Bloomberg). PM Johnson and Irish PM Varadkar said they could see “a pathway to a deal”. This came after a “detailed and constructive discussion” was held yesterday between the two, the joint statement said that the talks were “concentrated on the challenges of customs and consent”
    Varadkar will meet with EU Chief Negotiator Barnier tomorrow in Brussels to discuss the progress. Barnier will also meet with Brexit Secretary Barclay today (FT)
    In FX, risk sentiment was bolstered by positive headlines around US-China trade discussions which saw USDJPY trading c.0.50% higher and EURCHF rising c.0.55% yesterday and overnight. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded c.0.4% lower, down to around 1211. Commodity currencies were also helped by positive headlines around trade and Brexit, USDCAD traded c.0.45% weaker and touched 1.3269 (Bloomberg)
    The ECB minutes released yesterday showed a divided Governing Council - Some argued for larger rate cuts while some wanted to keep rates unchanged but the restart of the bond purchase program was the most contentious issue (FT)

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