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  1. #1031
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 May 2019

    • Global equities drop after renewed US-China trade uncertainty
    • Doubt over cross-party Brexit talks sends GBPUSD slightly lower
    • RBA keeps rates unchanged despite market expectations of a cut


    Global equities were broadly lower yesterday after a top trade negotiator for the US confirmed President Trump’s threats that the US could be raising tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200bn worth of Chinese goods this Friday
    Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said a deal was 90% done but the US are accusing China of reneging on commitments made during trade negotiations
    Beijing have said it still plans to dispatch a delegation to Washington despite the developments and these trade talks are reportedly taking place on 9th – 10th May (FT)
    GBPUSD traded marginally lower yesterday amid renewed Brexit concerns. GBP weakened after senior Labour politicians cast doubt over the prospect of cross-party Brexit talks which lowered expectations that PM May was close to an agreement (FT)
    As the UK local elections are now out of the way, focus for GBP is on the outcome of final negotiations between PM May and Labour Leader Corbyn which are due to begin today
    In EM, USDTRY rallied overnight and traded above 6.1690 this morning after it was confirmed that Istanbul will hold new municipal elections on 23rd June as requested by the ruling party of President Erdogan
    In central banks, the RBA kept interest rates on hold overnight at 1.50%. This was in-line with Barclays Research’s expectation but above the market consensus of a 25bp cut. AUDUSD traded c.0.6% higher following the decision (Bloomberg)

  2. #1032
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 May 2019

    • Global equities sell-off, USDJPY and 10-year yields down due to US-China trade escalations
    • GBPUSD trades lower as hopes for a cross-party Brexit deal fade
    • Focus for EM today is on the South Africa elections


    Global equities sold-off yesterday as the White House threatened to intensify its trade war with China and raise tariffs as soon as Friday. Focus is still on a new round of trade talks starting 9th May. As a result, investors’ flight to safe havens saw USDJPY sell-off to five week lows, US 10-year treasury yields fall 4.3bps and gold trade higher
    Data overnight showed that China’s exports unexpectedly dropped 2.7% last month, this was before the renewed tensions (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded c.0.5% lower yesterday amid broad-based USD strength and after it was reported hopes for a cross-party Brexit deal faded further. Brexit talks between senior Conservative and Labour politicians ended without any meaningful conclusion, although PM May described them as “constructive and detailed”. They agreed to meet again today (FT)
    In data, German industrial production rose 0.5% in March versus consensus of a 0.5% decline. This was the second consecutive month of gains and reportedly puts renewed confidence in the economy
    However, the EU cut its growth forecasts for the euro area and Germany citing several euro-area risks including renewed US-China trade tensions (Bloomberg)
    In central banks, the RBNZ cut its key rate by 25bps to 1.5% and lowered projections of GDP. NZDUSD initially gapped c.1% lower but has since erased those losses to just below pre-meeting levels on profit-taking. Markets currently price in a 50% chance of another rate cut by end-2019
    In EM, USDTRY rallied to 6.1982 yesterday (Bloomberg), a rate not seen since October 2018, amid election uncertainty in Istanbul. Elsewhere, South Africa is holding its election day today. Barclays Research states that financial markets are under-pricing the risks associated with a poor election outcome for the ANC

  3. #1033
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 May 2019

    • Asian equities continue declines after further escalation in Sino-US relations
    • GBPUSD traded lower yesterday amid continued Brexit uncertainty
    • Markets will watch the central bank meeting in Norway today


    Asian equities declined further overnight after President Trump said that Chinese leaders ‘broke the deal’. This follows threats from the US Trade Representative’s office that tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods would increase to 25% from 10% at 05:01 BST on Friday. Chinese Vice Premier He will be in Washington today and tomorrow to hold talks and try to find a solution (Reuters)
    In FX, JPY strengthened against the USD yesterday and overnight amid a broad risk-off sentiment, while USDCNY traded to highs not seen since January (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research believes that risks have risen for a breakdown in talks and potential retaliatory tariffs from China
    GBPUSD continued to trade lower yesterday amid continued Brexit uncertainty, falling below 1.3000 briefly before retracing slightly. PM May told senior Tories she will make a fourth attempt to break the Westminster deadlock before European Elections take place on 23rd May as she tries to head off growing demands for her to quit (FT)
    While the 1922 Committee kept the rules on leadership challenges unchanged yesterday, PM May has promised to meet with the Committee next week to discuss a timetable for her departure
    Today at 09:00 BST there is a central bank meeting in Norway. Barclays Research and market consensus expect Norges Bank to remain on hold, but our Research team believes it will reaffirm the next hike will be in Q3 this year and risks are tilted to a hawkish surprise
    Elsewhere, markets are awaiting the outcome of the South African election, with votes being counted and results coming out throughout the day. Currently, with 23% of the vote counted, the ruling ANC party are at 55%

  4. #1034
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 May 2019

    • Washington proceeds to raise tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese imports to 25% overnight
    • ANC won 57.2% of the vote from 75% of ballots counted, projected to have 57.7% overall
    • Markets will watch UK economic activity data and US CPI releases today


    US equities closed down but off of session-lows yesterday after President Trump said a deal with Beijing was still possible, alleviating major concerns about trade relations. However, negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough and the US proceeded to raise tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese imports to 25% overnight. Asian equities were mixed as a result of the development
    In FX, the reaction to the tariffs was fairly muted across the board and now markets are waiting to see if China retaliates
    GBPUSD was range bound yesterday as Brexit uncertainty continued. Cross-party talks still provide no results and PM May has given MPs a ten-day break after EU elections this month (FT)
    Focus for GBPUSD today is the UK economic activity data released at 09:30 BST and the US CPI released at 13:30 BST
    In central banks, the Norges bank left its key rate on hold at 1.00% but reiterated its intention to raise rates again in June 2019. Our traders think June is too soon for a hike and, despite the hawkish rhetoric at yesterday’s meeting, the next rate hike is likely to be in September 2019
    In EM, according to the Independent Electoral Commission, the ANC has won 57.2% of the votes with 75% of ballets counted from Wednesday’s South Africa election. The Council for Scientific & Industrial Research and the state broadcaster are projecting that the ruling party will obtain 57.7% of the vote, with the main opposition Democratic Alliance gaining 20.8% (Bloomberg)

  5. #1035
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 May 2019

    • Most global equities under pressure last week
    • GBPUSD traded lower amid a lack of progress in cross-party talks
    • EURUSD made broad gains after better-than-expected Eurozone data


    Most global equities came under pressure last week amid an escalation in Sino-US relations after President Trump more than doubled tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods. Further headlines confirmed a stalemate over the weekend as Washington demanded promises of concrete changes to Chinese law, and China’s Vice Premier He declared that the US must remove all extra tariffs (Reuters)
    In FX, demand for safe-havens increased amid a prevailing risk-off sentiment. JPY strengthened against the USD whilst CNY weakened to levels not seen since January
    Markets will watch for potential retaliation from China given the commerce ministry’s threat to impose ‘necessary countermeasures’
    GBPUSD traded lower last week amid a lack of progress during UK cross-party talks. This week PM May will reopen talks with the EU on a future customs deal in an attempt to revive the negotiations with the Labour party
    This comes amid renewed calls for her to quit after opinion polls put the Conservative party on 4th place for EU elections, behind the Brexit Party, Labour and the Lib Dems respectively (FT)
    EURUSD made broad gains last week amid better-than-expected Eurozone data. This week sees the deadline for the US to decide on potential auto tariffs for the EU. Despite economists expecting an extension to the deadline, a surprise tariff announcement could see a sustained fall in EURUSD
    UK Q1 GDP was released on Friday, showing an unprecedented drag from net trade. Whilst strong government spending and resilient consumption contributed to a healthy overall reading at 0.5% q/q, Barclays Research believes that the contraction in March data signals flat GDP for Q2

  6. #1036
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 May 2019

    • Global equities lower amid escalations in Sino-US relations
    • In FX, JPY strengthened yesterday before retracing overnight
    • GBPUSD under pressure amid continued Brexit uncertainty



    Global equities fell sharply yesterday and overnight amid a further escalation in Sino-US trade relations with China announcing retaliatory duties of 25% on $60bn of US goods. However, President Trump later said that the trade talks were ‘going to be very successful’ and that he would meet his Chinese counterpart Xi at the G-20 summit in June, which eased sentiment somewhat and resulted in Asian equities falling less than the magnitude seen in the US
    Barclays Research sees the US place tariffs on most, if not all, imports from China over time and expects China to respond with measures of its own, though not in the same proportion
    Our researchers also believe that the re-escalation in trade tensions increases downside risk to the US economic outlook and raises the likelihood of precautionary cuts from the Fed
    In FX, JPY strengthened against the USD yesterday as investors sought safe-haven currencies, but later retraced gains after President Trump’s comments. AUD and NZD both came under pressure yesterday whilst CNY weakened further (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD dropped yesterday from a high of c.1.3040 to lows of c.1.2945 amid continued Brexit uncertainty and a lack of progress in UK cross-party talks. Downing Street announced that PM May will continue with the talks despite concerns from senior Conservatives that succumbing to Labour demands would cause a significant split in the Tory party (FT)

  7. #1037
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 May 2019

    • Global equities rebound on renewed trade optimism
    • GBPUSD under pressure after UK labour data
    • PM May announces 4th vote on Withdrawal Agreement


    Global equities rebounded yesterday and overnight, with China’s CSI 300 rising over 2% amid positive trade comments from President Trump. Stocks in Asia were pushed higher after weaker data in China, where industrial output, retail sales and investment all slowed more than forecasted, fuelling hopes of economic stimulus from Beijing (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the USD traded higher against its G10 counterparts with both AUD and NZD weakening
    GBPUSD traded lower yesterday after UK labour data was released. Despite a further fall in the unemployment rate to 3.8% vs. a consensus of 3.9%, job creation stalled during March supporting the view that the Q1 surge in hiring was driven primarily by Brexit-related contingency planning
    Barclays Research expects that after the slowdown in March, job creation is likely to fall further as companies step back from Brexit-related hiring
    In Brexit news, PM May has announced she will hold a fourth Meaningful Vote during the first week of June. In relation to ongoing talks with Labour leader Corbyn last night, May also said the Government would propose a close customs arrangement with the EU and uphold workers’ rights and environmental protections, meeting some of Labour’s demands (FT)
    Markets will continue to watch developments from the cross-party talks ahead of the EU elections, which take place next week

  8. #1038
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 May 2019

    • Asian equities trade mixed overnight
    • GBPUSD under pressure amid Brexit uncertainty
    • Disappointing data in the US weighs on the USD


    Asian equities traded mixed overnight, initially rising on reports that President Trump was planning to delay tariffs on EU auto-imports, providing relief to markets. However, shares later came under pressure after Trump signed an order which will likely restrict Chinese telecoms company Huawei from selling 5G network gear in the US (Reuters)
    GBPUSD continued its downward trend yesterday, trading from a high of c.1.2920 to a low of c.1.2830 amid reports that Labour would not back the Withdrawal Agreement unless PM May made further concessions. Further pressure came after continued reports that the 1922 committee were looking for May to set out a specific timeline for her departure (Bloomberg)
    PM May will meet the executive of the 1922 Committee today at 11:30 BST. There are reports that a Tory MP has stated they will ask her to step down before June 15th and if she refuses to accept their timetable, they could change the rules to allow for another no-confidence vote (Bloomberg)
    In data released yesterday in the US, Retail Sales fell in April, with the headline number at -0.2% m/m vs. a market consensus of 0.2% m/m. Industrial Production also fell -0.5% m/m vs. market consensus of 0.0% m/m, and revisions to historical estimates showed that activity in January/February was much weaker than previously published
    In FX, the USD fell against its G10 counterparts after the data was released
    Elsewhere, AUD dropped to multi-year lows overnight against the USD after an unexpected rise in unemployment. Headline unemployment rose to 5.2% in April vs. 5% consensus, raising market expectations of an interest rate cut
    In Italian politics, tensions increased between the ruling populist parties, fuelling speculation that the 10 month old coalition government could split after Deputy PM Salvini said that the country could break EU spending limits (FT)

  9. #1039
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 May 2019

    • Asia equities mixed as China signals a lack of interest in continuing trade talks
    • GBPUSD touches three-month low on Brexit developments
    • Brent rises amid heightening US-Iran tensions


    US equities traded higher yesterday as sentiment in the US was more positive after jobless claims fell by more than expected and housing starts beat forecasts. However, Asian equities were mixed overnight and US equity futures are lower as China signalled a lack of interest in continuing trade talks with the US
    US Commerce Secretary Ross confirmed the US ban on Huawei, restricting the Chinese telecom company from selling 5G network products in the US
    JPY, CHF and 10 year treasuries advanced early this morning as demand for safe haven assets rose on the back of this development while CNY weakened further vs the USD
    GBPUSD sold-off c.0.4% yesterday and touched a three-month low of 1.2783 overnight (Bloomberg) as Brexit uncertainty continues to drive the currency pair. The Conservative Party have forced PM May to agree a schedule for her departure after the Withdrawal deal is voted upon at the start of June
    In commodities, Brent rose as the US-Iran tensions continued to escalate. President Trump said that he hoped the US would not go to war with Iran but tensions are still running high following a series of warnings by US officials of unspecified ‘escalatory action’ from Iran (FT)
    In EM, the US cut steel tariffs against Turkey by half to 25%. The taxes were raised to 50% in August 2018 after political tensions deteriorated. This did little to ease the sell-off in TRY

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