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  1. #991
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Mar 2019

    • Asian equities lower amid concerns over global growth
    • EU officials pessimistic over a Brexit breakthrough
    • Focus for today is on the ECB meeting


    Asian equities are trading lower as investors continue to await a resolution in the Sino-US trade negotiations. Yesterday’s US trade balance data revealed the trade deficit reached its highest level since 2008, due to strong domestic demand, despite the Trump administration’s policies aimed at putting “America First”
    Barclays Research has lowered its USDCNY forecasts given significant changes to their baseline for the US-China trade talks (End Q419: Previous – 7.15, Revised – 6.85). Their base case is now for the US and China to reach some agreement on trade, with a conditional and partial removal of the 10% tariffs on USD200bn of Chinese imports
    EU officials have expressed doubts over the ability of making any progress at this week’s Brexit talks, stating that any concessions the EU would be willing to give would not be sufficient to win a Parliamentary majority
    Barclays Research maintains its long-held view that the Withdrawal Agreement will be approved by Parliament next week
    GBPUSD is trading in the 1.3159 - 1.3185 range this morning
    Focus for today is on the ECB meeting, Barclays Research expects policy settings to be unchanged but retain a dovish tone, expecting ECB 2019 GDP forecasts to be downgraded by 0.2-0.3pp from the current 1.7%, with smaller revisions likely for 2020-21

  2. #992
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 Mar 2019

    • Asian equities are in the red amid global growth concerns
    • May pressures EU to offer alternative to Irish backstop
    • Focus for today is on US employment data


    Asian stocks are trading lower on the back of a rare sell rating from China’s largest brokerage and concerns over a slowdown in global growth. Chinese trade data came in weaker than expected overnight and the ECB downgraded its growth outlook for 2019 to 1.1% from 1.7%, which was a downward surprise. Alongside a new TLTRO to provide stimulus in Europe, it was also announced at yesterday’s ECB meeting that interest rates would be kept at historic lows until next year
    Barclays Research has pushed out its baseline expectation for a first hike in the deposit rate of +15bp to Q1 20 (previously Q4 19) followed by a second deposit and refinancing rate hike of +25bp in Q3 20 (previously Q2 20)
    EURGBP dropped to one-week lows of 0.85364 and EURUSD traded down to 20-month lows of 1.1177 on the back of the more dovish than expected ECB meeting
    PM May is now putting pressure on the EU to help break the Brexit deadlock over the Irish border, still hoping to get legally binding changes ahead of next week’s meaningful vote. The EU have made an offer which falls short of the UK’s demands as it does not offer the needed change to the arbitration system within the deal to make it easier for the UK to leave the backstop without EU approval
    GBPUSD drifted lower yesterday and is trading in the 1.3075 – 1.3099 range this morning
    Focus today turns to US employment data released at 13:30 GMT, which should confirm the strength of the US labour market. Barclays Research forecast nonfarm payrolls to have increased 200k in February, falling back close to its recovery average, and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth, to 3.9%, reversing some of the rise caused by the government shutdown, and average hourly earnings to have increased 0.3% m/m and 3.3% y/y

  3. #993
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Mar 2019

    • Focus for GBP is on the Brexit votes starting Tuesday
    • Recent US-China trade talks progressing well
    • Markets will also watch US data closely this week after last week’s mixed employment report


    GBPUSD sold off last week, starting the week above 1.3250 but closing the week below 1.3000 (Bloomberg). PM May travels to Brussels today to try and secure last-minute changes to the backstop agreement after Attorney General Cox failed to make a breakthrough last week, ahead of the planned vote on the Withdrawal Agreement (FT)
    Prime Minister May is expected to hold another ‘meaningful vote’ by Tuesday, followed by two more votes on ‘no deal’ and an extension if her Brexit deal fails to pass
    Our research team believe that an extension of Article 50 is the most likely outcome of the series of Brexit votes and appears priced in by markets
    Global stocks traded lower last week, with America’s S&P 500 down c.2.2% and Japan’s Nikkei down c.3.2%, amid concerns over global growth. However, US-China trade talks have been progressing better recently, with PBOC Governor Gang saying that they are ‘in agreement on many crucial issues in the trade talks’ (Bloomberg)
    This week, markets will closely watch data from the US for further indication of the resilience of the US economy. Last week, non-farm payrolls surprised to the downside, with 20k jobs being created vs consensus forecast for 180k jobs, however, Barclays Research highlighted that the moderation in hiring was likely overstated by the effects to the US government shutdown. Elsewhere, the report showed solid earnings growth and a decline in the unemployment rate even as labour force participation held steady
    US January retail sales, released today, should rebound from the mysterious December miss, somewhat alleviating concerns about consumer spending
    If the crucial Brexit vote in the Houses of Parliament goes ahead tomorrow Barclays FX team will be supporting our clients’ needs by being available for telephone dealing until 10pm UK time. As always, if you are a Barx user it will be available 24 hours a day.

  4. #994
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 Mar 2019

    • GBP strengthens on positive Brexit news
    • Main focus today will be MP’s reactions ahead of the Parliamentary vote tonight
    • US and Asian equities trade higher on positive sentiment


    GBPUSD rallied yesterday and overnight, trading from a low of 1.2962 yesterday to a high of 1.3289 overnight (Bloomberg). Late last night PM May announced in a briefing after her meeting with EC President Juncker in Strasbourg that she had won ‘legally binding changes’ regarding the contentious Irish backstop (Bloomberg)
    There are three assurances, the first being the most important. It states that the EU could not deliberately seek to keep Britain in the backstop by failing to negotiate a new trade deal in good faith – and if it did, Britain could seek arbitration and an exit from the agreement (FT)
    Ahead of the second meaningful vote of the Withdrawal Agreement this evening, markets will await Attorney General Cox’s legal opinion regarding the changes to the Irish backstop. There will be a debate in Parliament from 13:00 GMT during which amendments will be tabled. Markets will also watch reactions from the DUP and the ERG for insight into how the vote may play out tonight
    US and Asian equities traded higher overnight led by gains in the technology sector after news of a merger between chipmakers in the US. Despite US January retail sales coming out slightly better than expected yesterday, December data was revised down, and our research team lowered their official US Q1 GDP growth forecast to 2.0%, from 2.5%

  5. #995
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Mar 2019

    • UK Parliament rejects May’s Brexit Deal
    • UK GDP rebounds in January
    • Asian equities fall amid negative comments on trade


    GBPUSD traded lower yesterday ahead of the second meaningful vote which took place last night, after Attorney General Cox published his legal opinion that ‘the legal risk (to the backstop arrangement) remains unchanged.’ The vote on the Withdrawal Agreement failed as widely expected, by 391 to 242
    PM May confirmed afterwards that there will be a vote today on a no-deal withdrawal, and if that fails, a vote on Thursday on whether there is support for an extension of Article 50
    Our research team believe that the vote on no-deal today will fail, but the margin of defeat will be the key figure to watch, as a large defeat of the no-deal motion could considerably weaken the hard Brexiteer faction in Parliament
    UK GDP rebounded for January, coming out +0.5% m/m after -0.4% m/m previously. This was better than both Barclays and the market expected, making up for December’s lower number. This led our researchers to raise their UK GDP Q1 forecast to 0.2% q/q from 0.1% q/q
    Today UK Chancellor Hammond releases his spring statement. Whilst this will likely be partly overshadowed by Brexit, it will contain new forecasts for economic growth and public finances (FT)
    Asian equities traded lower overnight after negative comments from US Trade Representative Lighthizer regarding US/ China trade talks. He said that the negotiations were at risk of failing, and that ‘major, major issues’ needed to be resolved before an agreement was reached, and couldn’t predict success at this point. More talks are planned between Chinese and US officials today (FT)

  6. #996
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 Mar 2019

    • MPs vote against leaving the EU without a deal
    • Chinese equities under pressure amid poor data
    • Barclays Research release new FX forecasts today


    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday ahead of the Parliamentary vote on whether to leave the EU without a deal. MPs strongly voted against leaving without a deal, 321 to 278. The original Government motion was adapted by the Spelman Amendment, which surprisingly passed by a majority of 4 and effectively reinforced the view that the House does not want a no-deal Brexit, regardless of the circumstance or time frame (FT)
    GBPUSD rallied after the vote, trading to a high of 1.3381 (Bloomberg)- a level not seen since June 2018. However some of these gains were pared back during Asia trading
    Despite the outcome of the vote, a no-deal exit remains the legal default ‘unless something else is agreed’
    Markets will watch closely the outcome of tonight’s vote on whether MPs support an extension of Article 50. Our researchers believe that this vote will pass – however if it does, the EU does not need to formally respond and agree any extension request until the EU summit at the end of next week (Thursday 21st and Friday 22nd March)
    Chinese stocks led declines in Asian equities overnight after Chinese industrial output came out lower than expected and the jobless rate rose to a two-year high. The ongoing trade dispute between China and the US has been cited as the main cause for the disappointing data releases (FT)
    Barclays Research released updated FX forecasts this morning. They now believe that the USD will remain at elevated levels and the Euro will enter a lower range, reflecting the higher risk premia and unexpected economic deterioration of the euro area. They also expect GBP to strengthen mildly, as ‘crash out’ risks are likely replaced by an extension of the Brexit process
    The Q4 2019 forecasts for GBPUSD, EURUSD and EURGBP are 1.26, 1.08 and 0.86 respectively, from previous forecasts of 1.28, 1.12 and 0.88 respectively

  7. #997
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 Mar 2019

    • Parliament vote in favour of extending Article 50
    • Markets await confirmation of a third vote, possibly next week
    • US equities trade lower after Trump/Xi summit delayed


    MPs voted in favour of an extension of Article 50 in the Parliamentary vote yesterday. GBP reaction was muted, and has traded sideways overnight. An amendment calling for a second referendum failed by a large majority of 249, a strong sign that many Labour and Conservative MPs are against the idea
    Looking ahead, PM May is widely expected to bring the Withdrawal Agreement back for a third Meaningful Vote, possibly as soon as next Tuesday. If this vote passes, we will likely see a short technical extension to pass the necessary legislation. However if the vote fails, we could potentially see a longer extension, although the EU will decide the length, likely at the EU Summit on 21st/22nd March
    Markets will watch any developments over the weekend, especially from the DUP, to gauge the chances of PM May’s deal passing
    US equities traded lower yesterday after reports that a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi would be pushed back into April from March. Concerns that a delay to a summit could reflect a lack of a breakthrough on trade talks weighed on markets, despite President Trump announcing that negotiations are ‘going incredibly well’ (Bloomberg)
    The BoJ left interest rates on hold overnight, and downgraded its assessment of exports, industrial production and overseas economies. USDJPY reaction was muted following the announcement as it was widely expected
    Our researchers expect USDJPY to remain around current levels in the near term before moving to a lower range amid increased global growth uncertainty

  8. #998
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 Mar 2019

    • In the UK, markets will watch any news of a potential third Parliament vote this week
    • Global equities trade higher amid improving risk sentiment
    • The Fed meeting on Wednesday will be a key market driver


    GBPUSD had a volatile week amid a series of Parliamentary votes over Brexit. MPs voted against the Withdrawal Agreement and in favour of extending Article 50, as predicted. PM May is expected to bring the deal back for a third vote this week, although Chancellor Hammond has indicated that this would only happen if the Government has a ‘high degree of confidence’ of it passing (FT)
    Markets await any signs of the DUP supporting the deal, as PM May meets with them today. Many believe that if the DUP announced its intention to back the deal, it would persuade rebel Tory Eurosceptics to follow suit
    Barclays Research see a c.2% move lower in EURGBP if the Withdrawal Agreement passes in Parliament this week
    Global equities gained over the last week amid improving risk sentiment, with China reporting on Friday that ‘substantive progress’ had been made on trade talks. The CSI 300 Index closed the week c.1.9% higher after China passed a new foreign investment law, granting foreign companies equal standing with state-owned businesses (FT)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot index traded lower last week amid disappointing US data
    The focus for this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Whilst Barclays Research do not forecast a rate change, they expect the Fed to reinforce its patient stance and to lower its growth outlook modestly for 2019. They also expect the Committee to announce that it will end of the balance sheet runoff in June

  9. #999
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Mar 2019

    • US equities close higher, led by bank stocks
    • Bercow prevents unchanged deal returning to MPs
    • RBA minutes retain dovish bias


    Most EMEA and US equities traded higher yesterday, with the S&P reaching five-month highs. The gains in the US were led by bank stocks, boosted by growing speculation that the Fed is at the end of its hiking cycle (FT). In Asia, equities were broadly unchanged overnight, as markets await central bank meetings amid expectations of dovish signals to monetary policy (Bloomberg)
    Speaker Bercow announced yesterday afternoon that PM May is not allowed to bring her deal back to Parliament for a third Meaningful Vote unless it was ‘fundamentally different’. GBPUSD briefly dropped below 1.32 after the speech, but retraced almost all of yesterday’s losses overnight, as it now seems likely that PM May will seek a long extension to Article 50 (FT)
    Markets will await any developments from Downing Street ahead of the EU Summit on 21st-22nd March
    Elsewhere, RBA released the minutes of the March meeting which retained the dovish bias from previous meetings, and highlighted the importance of the labour market in determining the path of future policy
    Barclays Research believes that if unemployment starts to rise towards 5.3-5.5%, the RBA may consider cutting rates by 25-50bp in H2 2019. However their base case is still for no policy changes in 2019. The next Labour print is on Thursday 21st March

  10. #1000
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Mar 2019

    • Asian equities mixed amid trade talk pressure
    • Today’s focus is on the Fed meeting at 18:00 GMT
    • GBPUSD range-bound ahead of EU Summit tomorrow


    US stocks closed mixed yesterday ahead of today’s FOMC meeting where markets will watch the Fed’s monetary policy outlook and details on the balance sheet plans. Asian equities continued to trade mixed overnight amid concerns from some US negotiators that China is pushing back against American demands (Bloomberg)
    US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin travel to Beijing next week as talks enter the final stages
    Today’s focus will be on the US Federal Reserve meeting at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Powell at 18:30 GMT. Barclays Research expects the Committee to reinforce its patient stance, keeping interest rates unchanged and likely announcing the end of the balance sheet runoff in June, with a view to begin reinvesting in Treasuries in July
    They also believe that a dovish Fed could support risk sentiment, bringing mild weakness to the USD
    GBPUSD was relatively range-bound yesterday amid speculation of the length of an Article 50 extension that the EU could grant at the European Summit, which begins tomorrow. This morning, Downing Street confirmed that PM May would not seek a long extension after some Eurosceptic cabinet ministers suggested they could quit if a longer delay was granted (FT)
    In terms of data yesterday, the latest employment report showed unemployment slightly lower than expected, at 3.9% (Consensus 4.0%)
    Despite the positive headline number, Barclays Research sees this remaining at odds with business surveys suggesting a slowdown of job market gains, pointing to stagnating productivity

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