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  1. #1141
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Oct 2019

    • GBP under pressure as Brexit vote delayed
    • Asian equities supported by renewed trade optimism
    • Today, markets will watch further Brexit developments from UK Parliament


    GBPUSD traded broadly lower overnight, from highs of 1.2960 to 1.2875 after the votes in Parliament over the weekend. MPs voted in favour of an amendment by Oliver Letwin, which means Brexit-related legislation has to be agreed before a meaningful vote on the deal. Johnson then delayed the vote on his new deal with the EU until early this week
    The Prime Minister was forced to write to the EU to ask for an extension, despite repeatedly arguing that he wouln't ask for one
    Today, Johnson will make another attempt to win Parliament's backing for his Brexit deal by proposing another 'meaningful vote' - which Speaker Bercow may reject on the grounds it's already been considered. If this happens, the Prime Minister will attempt to secure a majority when legislation implementing the deal is put to a vote on Tuesday (FT)
    Our Researchers believe that failure to secure Parliamentary support for the deal should weigh on GBP, but the downside may be somewhat limited given the alternative scenarios of further negotiations and even a second referendum. On the other hand, a passing of the Withdrawal Agreement would lead to a GBP rally, with GBPEUR at 1.1900
    Asian equities traded higher overnight, supported by renewed optimism around US-China trade. Chinese Vice Premier He said on Friday that Beijing would work with the US to address concerns, and US President Trump said he thinks a trade deal will be signed by the time Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings take place on November 16-17
    Barclays Research revised their Fed call over the weekend, and now look for the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25bp in October and December. They see downside risks to the US outlook and a deceleration in domestic demand leading to more dovish Fed messaging
    Elsewhere, Canadian elections will take place today. After four years in power in Canada, Prime Minister Trudeau's Liberal party could lose their majority. Current polling puts the chances of a Liberal majority at just 21% (FT)

  2. #1142
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Oct 2019

    • GBPUSD jumps higher with growing Brexit optimism
    • Global equities in the green following positive comments on trade
    • Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau wins a second term but loses majority


    GBPUSD jumped higher yesterday from below 1.2880 to above 1.3010 with growing optimism that PM Johnson could get his Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) through Parliament today. However, the vote will be immediately followed by a second vote on whether MPs agree to his blistering timetable for pushing through the WAB. Analysis by the Financial Times suggests the Prime Minister might just succeed by 320 votes to 315
    Focus will also be on any amendments that are tabled. Currently two are being floated – one to attach a second ‘confirmatory’ referendum to a Brexit deal and a separate amendment to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU (FT)
    Markets will watch for any further developments today, as MPs only received their first sight of the 110-page Brexit legislation on Monday night, a move that attracted strong criticism of Downing Street. The vote on the WAB takes place this evening around 19:00 BST
    Most global equities were in the green yesterday and overnight after positive signals from both the US and China on their trade talks. President Trump said China had indicated talks over an initial deal are advancing, raising expectations he and Chinese Premier Xi could sign a pact at next month’s APEC summit
    In FX, NZD rose to a five-week high against USD of 0.6435 amid growing expectations of a partial US-China trade deal
    Elsewhere, Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau won a second term in the elections overnight. However, his Liberal Party was short of the 170 electoral districts needed for a majority. Trudeau’s most likely partner could be the New Democratic Party, which is poised to win 26 seats (Bloomberg)
    Focus for CAD is on the Bank of Canada outlook survey and Canadian Retail Sales, both released today

  3. #1143
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Oct 2019

    • GBPUSD moves lower following mixed results from votes in UK Parliament
    • JPY hits a one-week high against the USD
    • US and Asian equities slip overnight


    GBPUSD had a volatile day yesterday, trading in a range between 1.2850 – 1.3000, moving to the lows in that range overnight. Whilst PM Johnson won a larger-than-expected majority of 30 on the Second Reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), the Government subsequently lost control of the timetable to get the deal done by 31st October. Johnson has said he will now pause the WAB until the EU reaches a decision on the Article 50 extension request
    Following the vote, European Council leader Donald Tusk said that he would recommend the EU grant an extension until 31st January 2020. Focus will now be on an official response from the EU, likely to come later this week
    In FX, safe haven currencies advanced following the votes in UK Parliament, with JPY hitting a one-week high against the USD of below 108.30. Another catalyst for JPY strength was a planned speech by US Vice President Mike Pence around US-China trade which will take place Thursday, where there is concern that he could negatively affect the ongoing trade talks (Bloomberg)
    US and Asian equities slipped overnight following the continued lack of clarity around Brexit and amid concerns around the global tech sector following revenue warnings from some tech firms. The S&P 500 was down 0.36% and China’s Hang Seng down 0.93% after the reports (Bloomberg)
    In commodities, oil prices rose on Tuesday as OPEC discussed deeper production cuts due to worries about weak demand growth in 2020. Brent Crude traded from $58.75/barrel to over $60.20/barrel after the news


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