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  1. #1211
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 Feb 2020

    • Asian stocks in the red amid concern around economic impact from virus
    • UK’s trade negotiator Frost made his first public comments yesterday
    • RBA minutes were a tad more dovish than expected


    Asian stocks traded lower night amid concerns around Chinese factories resuming production at a slower pace than anticipated, reinforcing worries around the economic impact from the Coronavirus. The WHO cautioned that “every scenario is still on the table” in terms of the development of the virus. This saw US treasuries and gold higher whilst oil traded lower overnight (Reuters)
    In FX, commodity currencies dropped overnight amid concerns around global economic impact and a lower oil price. Both NZDUSD and AUDUSD dropped c.0.4%, trading around 0.6411 and 0.6685 respectively. USDNOK traded c.0.5% higher, reaching a high of 9.3072. USDJPY dropped c.0.15% on similar concerns, trading around 109.70 (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded c.0.3% lower yesterday amid broad-based USD strength and comments from UK chief EU trade negotiator Frost, insisting that the UK would never agree to EU oversight of its rulemaking. The currency pair ended the day just above 1.3000. Frost also commented that "we must have the ability to set laws that suit us — to claim the right that every other non-EU country in the world has," – highlighting the division between the UK and the EU (Bloomberg)
    Overnight we received the minutes from the RBA meeting, they were only a tad more dovish than the statement that accompanied the decision. The statement suggests there is a higher bar for further easing but that the door remains open. Barclays Research expect that the bank will cut rates in Q2 20, once the impacts from bushfires and the Covid-19 outbreak is clearer

  2. #1212
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Feb 2020

    • Asian stocks in the green amid improved risk sentiment
    • Today we receive UK inflation data
    • EURUSD touched near 3-year lows yesterday


    Asian stocks traded higher overnight after a slight decline in the number of new cases of Coronavirus and amid China’s effort to support the market. There have been headlines around China looking to help their airline industry as virus-related cancellations have shrunk their international aviation market and reports that they might offer cash injections or arrange mergers (Bloomberg)
    The US treasury curve traded inverted as the 3-month treasury yield traded above the 10-year treasury yield, which is usually taken as a sign of concerns around a recession in a year or two (Reuters)
    In FX, NZDUSD traded higher to 0.6401 as the New Zealand central bank Governor Orr said that the economy and monetary policy are “in a good position”. USDJPY traded c.0.2% higher as the risk sentiment improved. The China fix came in higher than expectation at 7.0012 causing a spike in USDCNH to 7.0173 - the pair has since traded down below 7.00 (Bloomberg)
    Today we have the Turkey central bank meeting at 11:00 GMT. Barclays expect the bank to remain on hold whilst market consensus is for a 50bp cut
    GBPUSD traded higher in the first half of the session to 1.3049 following a generally optimistic employment report. The unemployment rate was in line with expectations at 3.8%, and the economy also added 180k jobs in December, which was higher than consensus expectations of 148k. This provides evidence that the slowdown in growth last year did little to impact hiring (Bloomberg)
    Today we receive UK inflation data at 09:30 GMT. Barclays Research see January inflation rising on base effects
    EURUSD traded down to a low of 1.0786 - a level not seen since April 2017 - after a miss in German economic sentiment data (8.7 versus consensus of 21.5 and previous 26.7). The data print showed the impact from the coronavirus on German investor sentiment. The currency pair has already moved from a high of 1.1213 to 1.0786 YTD (Bloomberg)

  3. #1213
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Feb 2020

    • Asian stocks mixed amid reports of new cases outside of China
    • USDJPY traded 1.7% higher overnight
    • UK inflation came in stronger than expected yesterday


    Asian stocks traded mixed overnight after China reported a drop in new cases, whilst new cases in South Korea and Japan rose. China cut its benchmark lending rate overnight as expected, adding to measures to boost the economy from earlier in the week (Reuters)
    We saw a large c.1.7% move higher in USDJPY yesterday and overnight, taking the pair above 111.80 briefly this morning. The yen has been undermined by weak data this week and also fell even as other safe haven assets such as gold traded higher. The proximity of Japan to China has not helped the yen in this risk-off move. The USD saw heightened demand and was boosted by both the Fed minutes and some solid US data
    Yesterday we received the minutes from the January FOMC meeting in which both growth and inflation were revised higher. Participants expect economic growth to continue at a moderate pace, supported by an accommodative monetary policy and financial conditions
    UK inflation came in stronger than expected at 1.8%, picking up for the first time in six months and tempering expectations for a Bank of England interest rate cut later this year. Prices were boosted by the cost of energy, motor fuel, and air fares. Following the data, GBPUSD initially jumped higher but traded lower in line with the move higher in USD and ended the day around 1.2920(Bloomberg)
    Today Barclays Research predict that retail sales will show consumers turning more optimistic (Consensus: 0.7% m/m, previous: -0.6%).
    In FX, AUDUSD dropped c.0.50% after their unemployment rate came in slightly higher than market expected at 5.3% and 5.2%. USDTRY traded c.0.3% higher, touching a high of 6.0867 as the Central Bank of Turkey cut rates by 50bp to 10.75%. This was in line with market expectations (Bloomberg)

  4. #1214
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Feb 2020

    • Global stocks in the red this morning
    • USD continues to trade stronger
    • Today we receive Eurozone and UK flash PMIs


    Global stocks traded lower overnight as fears around the Coronavirus grow as more outbreaks outside of China were reported. We also received some flash manufacturing surveys - Japan’s dropped from 48.8 in January to 47.6 in February – the steepest contraction in 7 years. This saw inflows to safe haven assets with 10 and 30y US treasuries yield levels touching lows last seen in September (Reuters)
    In FX, the dollar holds onto gains from earlier in the week and was up c.0.50% yesterday as concerns over the spread of coronavirus re-emerge. USDJPY continued to move higher yesterday, touching a high of 112.23. AUDUSD fell c.1.15% yesterday and overnight reaching 0.6592, a level not seen in 11 years. USDCNH traded to its highest level this year, reaching 7.0548, (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded c.0.3% lower during the day despite a solid retail sales number, ending the day around 1.2880. UK January retail sales came in at 1.6% m/m (expectations of 0.8% and previous number -0.8%) with clothes and textile posting a very strong month
    There is a busy day ahead with multiple data prints. Barclays Research expect that February flash PMIs will print sideways for both manufacturing and services. Today’s release of February Eurozone PMIs will help markets gauge the hit to growth. Research expect composite PMI to weaken to 50.7 reflecting the first signs of disruption of the outbreak of Covid-19 to manufacturing while services continue to be resilient
    Barclays Research are in line with consensus and look for the ‘final’ print of Jan. headline and core HICP inflation to be confirmed at 1.4% y/y (Fri.) and 1.1% y/y, respectively

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