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  1. #1001
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Mar 2019

    • Dovish Fed signals no rate hikes in 2019 and one in 2020
    • GBPUSD under pressure after formal request for extension
    • Markets will watch the EU Summit and the BoE today


    US equities traded mixed after the Fed signalled at its meeting yesterday that it would not tighten rates at all in 2019 and only once in 2020, reflecting concerns over slowing growth. It also announced that it would taper securities runoff in May and end balance sheet runoff completely in September, and lowered its growth outlook for 2019 and 2020 (Bloomberg)
    Following the meeting, Barclays Research revised their outlook for monetary policy, and expect no further rate hikes in the forecast horizon through the end of 2020
    The surprisingly dovish FOMC stance saw the USD drop against most currencies, with EURUSD rallying c.0.9% after the meeting
    GBPUSD came under pressure yesterday after PM May formally requested an extension to Article 50 until 30th June 2019, indicating that she was not prepared to extend beyond this date. EC President Tusk responded by saying that such an extension would only be possible if the UK Parliament voted in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement by 29th March (FT)
    PM May is expected to bring her deal back for a third Meaningful Vote next Tuesday or Wednesday (FT)
    Today is the first day of the European Summit in Brussels. Whilst a range of topics is to be discussed, the main focus will be on Brexit, and markets will watch for any further response to PM May’s extension request (FT)
    The Bank of England meets today, and Barclays Research expects a unanimous vote to keep rates on hold. They also look for a rhetoric of ‘gradual and limited’ rate hikes in the event of an orderly Brexit

  2. #1002
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Mar 2019

    • US stocks make gains led by a rally in the technology sector
    • EU announces A50 extension until 12th April if PM May’s deal is rejected next week
    • BoE keeps policy unchanged as expected


    Most US stocks gained yesterday after the surprisingly dovish Fed meeting on Wednesday with the Dow seeing its best day in a month amid a rally in the technology sector. Overnight, we saw a more cautious tone in Asia where equities traded mixed
    In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index rallied throughout yesterday’s session, regaining all of the losses it initially experienced after the FOMC
    Last night, the EU announced that there will be an A50 extension up until 22nd May if the House of Commons approve PM May’s Withdrawal agreement next week. However, it the deal is not passed by Parliament, then the UK has only got time until 12th April to indicate a potential way forward, which is also the date beyond which the UK must begin legislating for the EU elections
    GBPUSD was weighed down by general USD strength yesterday hitting a low of 1.3004 around 4pm GMT (Bloomberg), but the pair has retraced some of its losses since then
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3000 and resistance at 1.3300 for now. EURGBP support lies at 0.8600 while resistance comes in at 0.8725
    The BoE MPC unanimously voted to leave monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, reiterating its guidance for “gradual and limited” rate hikes over the forecast horizon. Barclays Research maintains their view that the rate will remain unchanged throughout 2019 and 2020

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