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  1. #1241
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 31 Mar 2020

    • GBPUSD lower amid month-end flows
    • US equities trade higher yesterday
    • Chinese manufacturing rebounds


    GBPUSD moved lower, from above 1.2450 yesterday to below 1.2300 briefly this morning. Whilst pressure remained on the pound as a result of the UK’s downgrade by Fitch Ratings, the majority of the moves came from USD strength amid month-end demand (Bloomberg)
    US equities traded higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 up c.3.3% and the Dow Jones up c.3.2. Chinese manufacturing data showed a rebound in March. Manufacturing PMI data rose to 52.0 (45.0 expected), following the prior month’s fall to 35.7 – illustrating that other economies can bounce back if self-isolation is adhered to and coronavirus is broadly contained (FT)
    Barclays Research thinks the strong rebound suggests production activity has improved from its record low in February due to the resumption of production, however it does not mean activity will return to its pre-COVID-19 level
    The US death toll from the pandemic climbed past 3,000 on Monday – the deadliest day yet for the country. Reported cases in the US increased to more than 163,000, as cases globally climbed past 765,000. In the UK, the Government unveiled a £75m package to help ‘tens of thousands’ of Britons stranded overseas return home on chartered flights
    Elsewhere, Korea’s February industrial production surged 11.4% y/y, stronger than expected at 3.4% y/y. Barclays Research note the large upside surprise in manufacturing IP suggests precautionary stocking and resilience in IT demand may have helped cushion the impact from the suspension of auto production

  2. #1242
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 Apr 2020

    • US and Asian equities lower
    • COVID-19 continues to drive markets
    • China’s Caixin PMI rebounds in March


    US and Asian equities sold-off overnight after US President Trump warned that nearly 250,000 people could die in the US due to the virus. US 10-year Treasury yields fell and the Bloomberg USD Spot Index moved higher as a result of these developments
    European and US equity futures tumbled overnight with FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Futures 2.39% and 1.68% lower, respectively (Bloomberg)
    COVID-19 fatalities in New York City topped 1,000. Global cases have reached 859,000 with at least 42,300 dead (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD swung between gains and losses yesterday, but broadly tracked higher from around 1.23 to above 1.24. However, overnight the pair retraced gains back towards 1.2350 amid broad-based USD strength and as investors remain concerned about the economic fallout in the UK due to the virus. Britain’s daily death toll from the virus jumped sharply to a record high of 381 (Bloomberg)
    Data overnight showed the China Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1 in March, moving back into growth territory (Consensus: 45.0). Elsewhere, South Korea headline exports dipped 0.2% y/y in March (Jan-Feb: -1.1%), weaker than expected. In Malaysia, headline CPI inflation surprised to the upside, easing only marginally to 2.96% y/y in March from 2.98% in February
    USDKRW traded c.1% higher to above 1230.00, from around 1220.00. USDMYR moved from below 4.3000 to above 4.3450 (Bloomberg)

  3. #1243
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 Apr 2020

    • COVID-19 drives global equities lower
    • Brent spikes on oil price war and China headlines
    • Commodity currencies trade higher overnight


    US and European equities sold-off yesterday, with the S&P 500 4.4% lower, as investors remain concerned about the human and economic toll of the COVID-19 outbreak. Asian stocks followed Wall Street and are currently down. These moves come despite the passage of a USD 2tn economic stimulus passage that had encouraged investors previously (FT). Global confirmed cases of COVID-19 have surpassed 915,000 with over 46,000 dead (Bloomberg)
    Brent traded c.10% higher overnight, from below USD 25/barrel to above 27.50, amid optimism that Russia and Saudi Arabia will end their oil price war soon. US President Trump is set to meet with top industry executives on Friday. Further to this, Bloomberg reported China, the world’s biggest oil importer, is planning to buy the commodity at these levels for its emergency reserves
    USDNOK traded c.2% lower from 10.4500 to below 10.2750 briefly this morning. CAD, AUD and NZD all climbed against the USD amid these developments
    In data, the headline US ISM manufacturing PMI index moved down a modest 1.0pt in March to 49.1, this was however well above consensus estimates of 44.5. March’s resilient reading was supported by lengthening supplier delivery times that reflect supply distortions rather than strengthening demand (Barclays Research)
    Focus is on further US data. Barclays Research today expect jobless claims of 5mn for the week ending March 28th, up from 3.5mn previously. In addition, they now expect flat nonfarm payrolls for March on Friday and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7% (from 3.6%)

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