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  1. #1301
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 01 July 2020

    • Chinese PMI’s show signs of recovery
    • USD traded lower into quarter-end
    • GBPUSD reversed losses yesterday


    Most Asian stocks in the green overnight as signs of China’s economy recovering boosted investor sentiment. The Caixin manufacturing PMI — a measure of factory activity in China – came in at 51.2 for June versus expectations of 50.5 and 50.7 the previous month. Japanese shares lagged as a central bank survey showed manufacturing sentiment falling to its lowest level since 2009 in June (FT)
    Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that the US could see corornavirus cases reaching 100,000 a day, as some states may be unable to control new spikes (FT)
    In FX, the USD traded lower yesterday amid quarter-end flows and as shares traded higher following better than expected US consumer data (98.1 versus expectations of 91.5). USDJPY traded lower after a brief spike above 108 after weak Tankan numbers, the pair is c. 0.20% lower this morning and trading around 107.70 (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded c.0.65% higher, reaching a high of 1.2392 yesterday. GBP traded stronger after positive Brexit headlines with EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier saying a Brexit deal is possible and is working for it. Yesterday was the deadline for UK to ask for an extension of the transition period (Bloomberg)
    Barnier rejected UK’s proposals to maintain London’s access to European customers and he warned that both sides should prepare for “big changes” from the start of next year and said “the UK cannot keep the benefits of the single market without the obligations” (FT)

  2. #1302
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 02 July 2020

    • Global stocks higher on hope of economic recovery and vaccine
    • GBPUSD continued higher for another day
    • Investor focus turns to US employment data release


    Global stocks rose as US data increased hope of a US economic recovery and a potential coronavirus vaccine eased investors’ concerns around the spike in infections. ISM Manufacturing data came in at 52.6 versus expectations of 49.8 and Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 versus expectations of 49.6 (Bloomberg)
    Yesterday we received the meeting minutes from the Fed meeting on 9th June. They showed that yield curve control is still being debated and indicated that Fed officials were undecided on the policy. Prompting selling of 2 and 3y Treasuries, the yield on the notes climbed just over 0.01 per cent (FT)
    In FX, the USD traded lower yesterday and overnight as US data came in better than expected and positive news of an experimental coronavirus vaccine boosted investor sentiment. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded c. 0.40% lower and reached a fresh 1-week low. NZDUSD climbed c. 0.40% overnight on improved risk sentiment, reaching 0.6507
    The Riksbank surprised somewhat on the dovish side by keeping its repo rate unchanged while expanding QE to SEK500bn. Its constructive forecasts cast doubt on whether QE needs expanding, but the guided composition of QE should limit SEK sell-offs. Barclays Research maintain their view of EURSEK depreciation in H2 20.
    GBP continued to reverse losses and traded higher for a second consecutive day. GBPUSD traded c. 0.65% higher reaching a level of 1.2490. Bank of England’s Haskel said that “Retail sales and spending more broadly appear to be recovering from their April lows, and we now expect Q2 as a whole will not be quite as negative as expected” (Bloomberg)
    Today we receive US employment data for June, Barclays Research expect nonfarm payrolls to increase 2000k (cons.: 3000k; last: 2509k), with private payrolls to rise 1750k (cons.: 2660k; last: 3094k). Elsewhere, we forecast the unemployment rate to continue to fall to 12.8% (cons.: 12.5%; last: 13.3%)

  3. #1303
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 03 July 2020

    • Global stocks higher following strong US jobs data yesterday
    • Brexit negotiator Barnier says serious divergences still remain
    • German lawmakers end the legal standoff over the ECB's QE


    Global stocks rose following strong US employment data as it brought hope of a recovery in the world’s largest economy. This marked the second consecutive month in which the employment data has beaten expectations. However some of the enthusiasm was damped by concerns around the spike in coronavirus cases in the US as well as rising tensions between US and China (FT)
    US employment data came in better that expected as lockdowns eased/ Non-farm payrolls came in at +4.8m versus expectations of +3.2mand a revised May number of +2.7m. The unemployment rate declined to 11.1% from 13.3% with a consensus of 12.5% (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the USD erased previous losses during the day as geopolitical tensions with China and virus concerns offset optimism following the strong US employment data and ended the day broadly unchanged. AUD and NZD were headed for their strongest weekly gains in a month – AUDUSD up c. 1.05% and NZDUSD is up 1.55% on the week amid the buoyant risk sentiment (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD slipped c. 0.05% and ended the day around 1.2468 amid threats from China to retaliate if UK goes ahead with citizenship plan for Hong Kong residents. Also, after four days of trade negotiations between the UK and EU, EU Brexit negotiator Barnier says serious divergences still remain
    The EU and UK are divided over fishing rights, the future role of the European Court of Justice, Brussels' demands for "level playing field" guarantees and the governance of the future relationship treaty (Bloomberg)
    The legal standoff over the ECB's QE program has ended as German lawmakers voted to accept the which the central bank has provided for its public sector purchase program (PSPP). This means that the Bunds bank continues to participate as this measure meets the German Constitutional Court's demand that the Bundestag review whether it's "proportionate." (Bloomberg)

  4. #1304
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 06 July 2020

    • Asian equities rally as markets weigh up fiscal stimulus
    • GBPUSD trades higher this morning
    • German Factory Orders lower than expected


    Asian equities rallied overnight as markets weighed up the fiscal stimulus in place to sustain the global economic recovery. China’s CSI 300 was up more than 5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose by more than 3%. The rallies come despite rising coronavirus cases in the US, which have delayed re-openings across the country. In the first four days of July, 15 states have reported record increases in new cases of COVID-19, and it is thought that reopenings impacting 40% of the US population have now been wound back (Reuters)
    GBPUSD has begun the week higher, trading to just above 1.2500 this morning. Prime Minister Johnson announced on Sunday that the UK will invest nearly £1.6bn in cultural institutions and the arts, who have struggled during lockdown, with theatres and concert halls still closed. This week’s focus is on UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s summer economic update on Wednesday, where further stimulus measures may be announced
    German Factory Orders data for May was released this morning, and whilst it showed an increase month-on-month, the numbers were lower than expected. They posted a gain of 10.4% m/m – but consensus expectations were for a gain of 15.4%. Last month’s came in much lower, at -25.8%
    ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the euro zone faces about two years of downward pressure on prices, but could then see a turnaround as the crisis accelerates the transformation of the economy. She also said that the pandemic will spur a pre-existing shift towards greater digitization and automation (Bloomberg)

  5. #1305
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 07 July 2020

    • Most Asian stocks trade lower overnight
    • US Atlanta Fed President Bostic warns of a ‘levelling off’ in economic activity
    • Lockdown restrictions to be reimposed in Melbourne from tomorrow


    Most Asian stocks traded lower overnight following the rally in equity markets yesterday – a day in which the US NASDAQ index hit a record high. US Atlanta Fed President Bostic said overnight that data has shown a ‘levelling off’ of economic activity, warning that the rebound of the US economy is in danger of stalling, as a result of the recent spike in coronavirus infections across several large US southern and western states (FT)
    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, moving from c.1.2470 to c1.2515 in the afternoon. In his summer statement tomorrow, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak will reportedly announce £3bn of energy efficiency measures as part of a wider coronavirus stimulus package aimed at boosting the economy. The package will include £2bn towards new green homes and another £1bn for insulating public buildings
    The Chancellor is considering a series of temporary tax cuts, including a stamp duty holiday for more homes and a reduction in VAT targeted at the hospitality sector (FT)
    In Australia, lockdown restrictions will be reimposed in Melbourne from midnight tomorrow, following an ‘unsustainably high’ number of new coronavirus cases. 191 new cases had been found after more than 26,000 tests were conducted on Monday (FT)
    AUDUSD traded lower this morning, from above 0.6990 to below 0.6950 briefly (Bloomberg)
    The UK imposed sanctions on 25 Russians and 20 Saudis on Monday as part of post-Brexit measures foreign minister Dominic Raab said were aimed at stopping the laundering of ‘blood money.’ Russia said it would respond to the new measures (Reuters)

  6. #1306
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 08 July 2020

    • Mixed performance for Asian stocks overnight
    • GBP rallies yesterday, with EURGBP breaking 0.9000
    • UK Chancellor to deliver summer statement in Parliament today


    Asian equities traded in a mixed fashion overnight, with Chinese and Hong Kong stocks trading slightly higher, and Japanese stocks trading lower. Yesterday the White House sent a letter to the United Nations, giving a one-year notice for the US to quit the World Health Organisation, following threats from US President Trump last month (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD rallied yesterday, moving from below 1.2450 to above 1.2580 in the afternoon, before receding slightly. EURGBP broke through the key level 0.9000 for the first time since the middle of June, ahead of today’s summer statement from UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak (Bloomberg)
    The UK Chancellor is due to speak at around 11:30 BST today in Parliament, where he will announce his next moves to prevent an unemployment crisis. The announcement will reportedly include a £2bn fund to create six-month work placement jobs for unemployed 16-24 year olds, and the largest ever rise in partly Government-funded apprenticeships (Reuters)
    He is reportedly considering a cut to value-added-tax or giving away vouchers to boost spending at pubs, restaurants and other hospitality firms, as well as cutting property purchase taxes
    In Brexit news, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Germany’s Angela Merkel that the UK is ready to go without a trade deal if the EU isn’t prepared to compromise. He spoke to the Chancellor yesterday as Brexit negotiators held informal talks. Negotiations are stalling over questions including fishing rights, the influence of EU courts in UK laws, as well as how far Britain will be able to loosen its rules and still enjoy access to the single market (Bloomberg)

  7. #1307
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 09 July 2020

    • Asian equities trade higher despite US virus infections rising
    • GBPUSD rallies as UK Chancellor delivers support package
    • Inflation data in China in line with expectations


    Asian equities traded higher overnight, spurred by gains for technology companies after the NASDAQ index hit another record high. The rise in stocks came despite US virus infections rising by 2% - just above the 7-day average with the death toll rising after the recent surge of infections in the south. US Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the flare-ups raise questions about the outlook for reopening (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index extended declines amid the rally in risk assets. AUD moved higher against the USD, to near 1 month highs (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD rallied again yesterday, moving comfortably above 1.2600 for the first time since mid-June. Yesterday UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his summer statement, in which he announced a new package of job support worth up to £30bn. This included a ‘job retention bonus’ of £1,000 per worker paid to companies that bring staff out of the government’s furlough scheme, a cut to VAT for the tourism and hospitality industry from 20% to 5% and a significant rise in the stamp duty threshold on all home purchases from £125,000 to £500,000 until the end of March next year (FT)
    Sunak insisted the government’s furlough scheme, which has supported 9m jobs since March, has to end. He argued his speech to parliament marked the moment the UK could move from protecting the economy to supporting and creating jobs
    Inflation data was released in China overnight, and came in line with market expectations at 2.5% y/y. The producer price index fell slightly less than expected, at -3.0% vs expectations of -3.2% - a rise of 0.4% from the previous month (Reuters)


  8. #1308
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    Market Review- Fundamental Perspective- 10 July 2020

    • Asian equities in the red as COVID-19 concerns resurface
    • Further easing of restrictions in England announced
    • Oil prices fall amid worries of lower fuel demand


    Asian equities traded in the red overnight as concerns resurfaced that rising coronavirus cases will hurt the global economic recovery. In the US, California, Texas and Florida saw record virus deaths, and new cases nationwide topped 60,000 for the first time – the largest one-day increase by any country since the pandemic emerged. Infections rose in 41 out of 50 US states over the last two weeks (Reuters)
    GBPUSD ended the day broadly where it started yesterday – around 1.2610. This is despite intraday moves higher than 1.2660, trading back lower due to USD strength following better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims. They came in at 1314k vs consensus expectations of 1375k and previous month’s 1427k (Bloomberg)
    In England, Outdoor swimming pools, theatres and music venues will start to reopen from Saturday. Announced in last night’s press conference, Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said that indoor pools, gyms and leisure centres would also be able to reopen from 25th July. While gyms in Northern Ireland will be permitted to reopen on Friday, Scotland and Wales have yet to confirm a date (FT)
    In commodities, Oil prices fell overnight, adding to steep losses from the previous session on worries that renewed lockdowns following a surge in coronavirus cases in the US and elsewhere would supress fuel demand. Brent Crude was down 1.3%, while WTI moved below 40.00 / barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks. EURNOK traded c.0.5% higher this morning (Bloomberg)

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