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  1. #941
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 Dec 2018

    • Global stocks fell after Xi offers no new China reforms
    • May has set the Parliamentary vote on her deal to the week of 14th January
    • Bloomberg’s USD Spot Index weakened with focus on tomorrow’s Fed meeting


    Global equities dropped across the board amid a risk-off sentiment given concerns over global growth prospects and the US-China trade war. Reports that President Xi Jinping offered no new commitments to stimulate China’s economy (Bloomberg) weighed particularly on Asian stocks
    JPY gained throughout yesterday versus the Greenback supported by safe-haven flows
    In addition to the tumble in equities, WTI Crude oil dipped to a 14-month low below $49 amid concerns over global growth and fuel demand
    With just over 100 days until Britain is due to leave the EU, Theresa May has said she will bring her Brexit deal back to a deeply divided Parliament for a vote on the week of 14th January, pledging to get EU assurances before she breaks the deadlock over Britain’s aim to leave the EU
    Despite a number of negative headlines, GBPUSD closed higher at 1.2624 (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the Bloomberg’s USD Spot Index weakened yesterday with investors looking to the Fed’s December meeting tomorrow which will reveal the monetary policy outlook for the next year
    Barclays Research still forecasts a 25bp rate hike tomorrow, however “now sees the weaker external backdrop and tighter financial conditions as flattening the expected policy path”, forecasting only two rate hikes in 2019 and one further hike in 2020
    Elsewhere, NZD gained against all of its G10 peers aided by an eight-month high in New Zealand’s business confidence index. In Australia, RBA minutes indicated that the committee’s overall tone was little changed from the previous month’s discussions
    The RBA’s board members noted that lending conditions could tighten further and maintained their view that the next move in the cash rate would be up, not down

  2. #942
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Dec 2018

    • Asian equities are under pressure ahead of today’s Fed meeting
    • Italy reportedly reaches an informal agreement with EU on its budget plans
    • Focus on today’s Fed decision at 19:00 GMT


    US equities closed slightly higher after a volatile session yesterday whilst most of their Asian counterparts traded lower overnight. At the same time, increased demand for haven assets like JPY and gold reiterates the cautious market sentiment ahead of today’s US interest rate decision
    Elsewhere, WTI Crude oil tumbled c.7% on Tuesday with continued fears on weaker oil demand
    Focus is on the Fed meeting tonight at 19:00 GMT with particular attention paid to the Dot plot, the committee’s macroeconomic projections and any comments on the state of the economy. A 25bp hike with dovish commentary is widely expected by markets
    Barclays Research expects a 25bp rate hike, but warns that the external economic conditions and elevated political uncertainty weighs on financial markets
    As a result, Barclays Research “looks for a modest downward revision to economic activity in 2019 and inflation in 2018 and 2019”
    EURUSD has briefly traded above 1.1400 this morning further to reports that Italy reached an informal accord with the EU on its budget plans for next year. An official announcement is expected at midday today with Senate approval needed by year-end (Reuters)
    GBPUSD reached a high of 1.2706 yesterday amid broad-based USD weakness. Today’s focus is both domestic CPI data but also on the EC’s publication of a new set of no-deal Brexit preparation documents which will consist of 14 proposed legal acts at EU level, to manage an abrupt Brexit

  3. #943
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Dec 2018

    • Global equities trade lower after the Fed’s rate decision
    • Barclays Research revise its Fed policy forecast
    • Focus on today’s BoE decision at 12:00 GMT


    US equities dropped yesterday after the Fed decided to hike its benchmark overnight lending rate by 25bp to a target range between 2.25-2.50%. The Fed did trim its 2019 outlook looking for just two interest rate increases, instead of three predicted previously, but this was not enough to prevent further falls in stocks as fears on global growth persisted
    Chairman Powell emphasized the Fed’s data dependency but struck a tone which was less dovish than markets had expected
    Asian stocks and most global equity futures followed the downward trend overnight
    Barclays Research has revised its forecast for Fed policy in 2019 down to three 25bp rate hikes rather than four, expected for June, September and December
    They “continue to expect the unemployment rate to fall faster than members expect, leading the Fed to complete its tightening cycle modestly earlier than it anticipates”
    In FX, USDJPY dropped c.0.5% amid the equities sell-off overnight. The BoJ’s policy decision did not move markets much as the committee voted for its yield curve control and purchases of assets other than long-term JGBs as widely expected
    Elsewhere, NZDUSD dropped overnight on disappointing Q3 economic growth data
    GBPUSD traded in a relatively tight range yesterday with Parliament rising for its “Christmas” Recess today. Markets will now focus on Retail Sales data at 9:30 GMT and the BoE's meeting at midday

  4. #944
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Dec 2018

    • Global equities dropped amid concerns over a US government shutdown
    • The Bank of England kept rates unchanged as expected yesterday
    • Final GDP data takes centre stage in the UK and US today
    • This publication will resume on 2nd January 2019


    Global equities continued to drop yesterday and overnight posting a second big day of losses post Wednesday’s US Fed rate hike. Furthermore, US President Trump said he would veto a bill to fund the government unless it had money for a Mexico border wall, raising the odds of a partial shutdown that would put public employees on leave (Reuters)
    US government shutdown headline risk remains elevated
    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped significantly amid the equity-sell off, experiencing its worst week in 10 months. At the same time, the risk-off sentiment saw JPY strengthen against the USD for a fifth consecutive day
    The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75% yesterday in a unanimous decision. It did however outline that “the further intensification of Brexit uncertainties, coupled with the slowing global economy, has also weighed on the near-term outlook for UK growth”
    GBPUSD traded up to a week’s high of 1.2707 going into the meeting but reversed the gains made afterwards with the BoE outlining the uncertainty ahead
    With the UK Parliament now in ‘Recess’, focus will be on Final GDP releases in the UK at 09:30 GMT and the US at 13:30 GMT. Barclays Research is in line with consensus for both GDP figures with 0.6% m/m forecasted in the UK and 3.5% q/q saar in the US

  5. #945
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 Jan 2019

    • Stocks slumped at the start of the year on disappointing China data
    • Trump has called a meeting with Congress leaders, suggesting he wants to “make a deal” to end the government shutdown
    • PM May uses New Year’s message to urge MPs to back her Brexit deal


    Stocks in Asia fell and US futures traded lower after evidence of slowing Chinese growth dampened hopes for an upbeat start to 2019. China’s NBS PMI weakened to a 34-month low in December, led by weakness in both production and new orders, which in our view signals a weaker growth outlook coming into 2019. The risk-off sentiment has benefited safe havens, with JPY c.0.5% stronger against the USD this morning.
    With the US Government partially shut down since December 22nd, Donald Trump has invited top congressional leaders to a White House briefing on border security suggesting he wants to “make a deal” to end the government shutdown. Democrats have thus far rejected Trump’s request for border wall funding. Democratic leaders haven’t publicly said whether they’ll accept the invitation yet.
    With a couple of weeks until a Parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal, Theresa May released a video on Monday in which she stated that if parliament backs the deal she has brokered with the EU, Britain can “turn a corner”. GBPUSD reached highs of 1.2815 (Bloomberg) on Monday.
    The main data point this week will be US Nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

  6. #946
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 03 Jan 2019

    • Apple revenue warning prompts “flash crash” in FX markets
    • USDJPY drops c. 4% in thin holiday trading
    • PM May expected to speak to EU leaders this week


    Overnight, US stock futures and Asian equities fell following a rare revenue warning from Apple Inc, fuelling concerns around slowing global growth and the Chinese economy in particular. The announcement marks the first time Apple has revised its guidance to investors in over 15 years, citing economic weakness in China and fewer iPhone upgrades to weigh on its quarterly revenue
    The news prompted a “flash crash” in holiday-thinned illiquid currency markets, with USDJPY falling c. 4% to reach its lowest level since June 2016 at 104.10 before stabilizing (Reuters)
    AUDUSD broke below 0.70 on Chinese growth concerns; reaching its lowest level in almost a decade
    GBPUSD traded briefly below 1.2500 overnight, triggered by moves in GBPJPY, although the pair has retraced above 1.2550 in early London trading
    Elsewhere, with the UK’s departure from the European Union fast-approaching, PM May is expected to speak to EU leaders this week, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and EC president Donald Tusk in an attempt to seek legally binding assurances on the Irish backstop

  7. #947
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 Jan 2019

    • Asian equities mixed overnight
    • US and Chinese officials to hold trade talks on Monday, lifting sentiment
    • Markets focus on today’s US employment data


    Overnight, Japanese stocks retreated in their first trading session of 2019 further to the new year holidays, following their US counterparts as Apple Inc’s earnings warning hit technology stocks and concerns around global growth continued to sour sentiment
    The Nikkei closed down c. 2.3%, further to the S&P shedding c. 2.5% and Nasdaq losing c. 3.1% on Thursday
    Elsewhere however, the prospect of trade talks between China and the US helped to lift sentiment with mainland China’s CSI 300 up c. 2.4%, and European stocks pushing higher on the open. In FX, the JPY gave up gains following the “flash-crash” rally in the previous session
    US and Chinese officials are to meet on Monday for their first formal meeting since the G-20 Summit, where an agreement was made for a 90-day truce
    Markets will focus on the US employment report set to be released at 13:30 GMT, as well as a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell in Atlanta this afternoon
    Investors will watch for any indications as to the pace of the US central bank’s monetary tightening in 2019, particularly given recent concerns around global growth
    Barclays Research expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 185k (consensus: 184k), the unemployment rate to fall to 3.6% and average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% m/m

  8. #948
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Jan 2019

    • Global equities trade with a bid tone since Friday
    • USD under pressure due to dovish commentary by Powell on Friday
    • Brexit headline risk returns as UK Government is back from recess today


    Asian stocks traded higher overnight, continuing the bid tone on US equity markets since Friday. This was helped by strong US nonfarm payrolls, which grew by a surprising 312k on the month, well above consensus expectations. Risk sentiment was further aided by the PBoC’s announcement that it will cut its bank reserve requirements freeing up c.$116 billion for new lending (Reuters)
    This week’s focus is also on trade-related headlines, as US and Chinese officials are due to begin trade negotiations today in order to reach a deal during the 90-day truce
    Despite the strong US employment data, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index dropped on Friday further to Powell’s dovish comments as he mentioned the possibility of a pause in the Fed’s interest-rate hiking cycle (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research think that “current market pricing is too low (…) Powell’s speech (Thursday), Fed minutes (Wednesday), durable goods (Monday) and inflation (Friday) could serve as catalysts for a more sober evaluation of Fed hiking prospects”
    GBP could become more volatile again as the UK Government returns from recess today and will hold its meaningful vote on the Brexit deal on 15th January, potentially ratifying it by the end of the month
    Barclays Research thinks “data this week are unlikely to provide support for the GBP“

  9. #949
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 Jan 2019

    • Most global equities trade higher on trade talk hopes
    • GBPUSD has muted reaction to headlines of a potential extension of Article 50
    • Fed’s Bostic trims his rate outlook for 2019, tomorrow’s Fed minutes in focus


    Most US and Asian equities traded higher yesterday and overnight amid hopes that the negotiations between the US and China could lead to a trade deal. The US administration reportedly expressed optimism to reach a “reasonable” deal (Bloomberg)
    Focus will be on any revelations of the current trade talks and also on US President Trump’s speech tonight at 02:00am GMT
    GBPUSD traded marginally higher yesterday, however the main news came out overnight suggesting that the EU may consider an extension of Article 50 (Telegraph). GBPUSD has marginally risen since the headlines were released, but price action has been muted thus far
    The UK’s Brexit minister Barclay has however played down expectations of such a possibility, stating that the UK is not intending to extend Article 50 (Reuters)
    Headline risk remains elevated as we approach the meaningful vote on PM May’s deal in the UK Parliament on 15th January
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index weakened yesterday but retraced most of the losses overnight. Fed’s Bostic expressed his opinion on the hiking cycle and favours only one hike in 2019, trimming his rate outlook from two to one hike
    Tomorrow will see further speeches by Fed speakers as well as the Fed meeting minutes
    Brent oil held up its gains on optimism on US-Sino trade talks and aided by the production cuts that came into force at the start of the year. CAD gained against the USD yesterday, supported by stronger oil prices

  10. #950
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 Jan 2019

    • Equities, oil and commodity currencies rise amid trade-talk optimism
    • UK Government defeated in a vote on tax legislation in event of no-deal Brexit
    • Focus on Fed minutes today at 19:00 GMT


    Global equities traded higher across the board yesterday and overnight amid growing optimism that the trade talks between the US and China could lead to a deal. Negotiations were “going very well” according to a tweet by President Trump; they have now been concluded and markets await a statement for further insights
    The positive rhetoric on trade talks also boosted the oil price and commodity currencies
    US President’s speech overnight in which he addressed the US-Mexico border wall saw little market reaction
    GBPUSD had a volatile session yesterday, hitting a session high of 1.2797 in the morning but subsequently falling to 1.2707. The early headlines about a potential Article 50 extension were subsequently denied by the Government which saw any GBP strength reverse
    Focus then turned to a vote on changes to budget legislation in which the Government was defeated. The result restricts the government’s powers to amend tax laws to cope with a no-deal Brexit, indicating a desire to avoid a no-deal Brexit
    Headline risk around a potential Article 50 extension and the Parliament’s meaningful vote on Brexit next week is likely to remain elevated
    Today’s focus is on the Fed’s December policy meeting minutes released at 19:00 GMT which will provide indications on how the Fed is balancing current robust US data with heightened risks, including global economic performance and financial market developments
    There will also be a number of speeches by Fed members, including Bostic, Evans and Rosengren which may provide further insights into the Fed’s future policy path

  11. ARIONFORXtarder
 

 
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