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  1. #1081
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 July 2019

    • US equities lower amid renewed concerns regarding US-China trade talks
    • GBPUSD sells-off to lows last seen in April 2017 as no-deal Brexit risks increase
    • Brent drops c.3.5% after US-Iran tensions ease


    US equities closed lower, coming off the recent record highs, amid renewed concerns over US-China trade talks after President Trump told reporters the US still has a long way to go before reaching a trade accord with China and could impose additional tariffs if it chooses (FT)
    GBPUSD sold-off c.0.90% yesterday and continues to make new lows having traded below 1.2400 this morning (Bloomberg), a level last seen in April 2017. The risk of a no-deal exit from the EU increased after Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson’s demand that the Irish backstop must be ditched was rejected by Brussels
    In the US, retail sales came in slightly better-than-expected at 0.4% vs. 0.2% m/m yesterday and helped the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hold gains at near one-week highs
    Fed Chair Powell reiterated in a speech in Paris the Fed is “carefully monitoring” downside risks to US growth and “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion”
    Elsewhere, Brent traded c.3.5% lower yesterday after US Secretary of State Pompeo said Iran had signalled willingness to discuss its purchase of S-400 weapon programme (Bloomberg). The perceived escalation of US-China trade talks helped fuel the commodities sell-off

  2. #1082
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 July 2019

    • Global equities lower amid disappointing corporate earnings and Trump comments
    • CHF & JPY strengthen and US 10-year yields fall as investors seek safe havens
    • GBPUSD had a volatile day after inflation figures reverse a two-year low


    US equities closed lower, with the S&P 500 recording its worst day in three weeks, after a fresh batch of earnings disappointed investors. The decline was aided by President Trump who said the US still has a long way to go before reaching a trade accord with China. Asian equities followed suit and dropped on earnings and trade concerns between Japan and South Korea (FT)
    US 10-year Treasury yields fell, CHF gained and JPY strengthened to a two week high as investors sought safe havens
    GBPUSD had a volatile day yesterday, falling to a new two year low of 1.2382 in the morning after both Tory leadership candidates seemingly hardened their Brexit stances. However, the pair erased losses and traded c.0.5% higher throughout the day after UK inflation data met forecasts (Bloomberg)
    Tory leadership frontrunner Johnson said a trade deal will not be reached with the US soon after Brexit and predicted discussions will be “tough” and “robust”
    The Fed released their Beige Book last night and reported economic activity “continued to expand at a modest pace” and the outlook is “continued modest growth, despite widespread concerns about the possible negative impact of trade-related uncertainty” (Bloomberg)
    In data, Australia’s unemployment rate stayed at 5.2%, much higher than the RBA’s estimate of the NAIRU. AUDUSD traded marginally higher and Barclays Research expects the RBA to remain on hold in August

  3. #1083
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 July 2019

    • US and Asian equities higher following New York Fed President Williams’ comments
    • GBPUSD rallies amid positive Brexit sentiment
    • Brent crude gains after it was reported the US shot down an Iranian drone in the Gulf


    US and Asian equities were higher yesterday and overnight following comments by New York Fed President Williams that “it’s better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold” (FT). The market took these comments as a potential sign of deeper easing and is now pricing in 40% probability of a 50bp cut in July
    GBPUSD rallied c.0.9% yesterday and traded above 1.25 after the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Barnier said he was willing to seek an alternative arrangement regarding the Irish backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement (Bloomberg)
    However, it has been reported that UK Justice Secretary Gauke is set to resign his post while Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond and International Development Secretary Stewart are also considering departing before Boris Johnson potentially becomes PM
    In commodities, Brent crude gained c.2.5% after it was reported the US shot down an Iranian drone that came close to one of their warships in the Gulf (Bloomberg)
    President Trump said he is not looking at economic sanctions against Turkey “right now” following its decision to purchase S-400 missile systems from Russia. TRY gained c.1% versus the USD and USDTRY traded to lows of 5.6075 on the day (Bloomberg)

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