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  1. #921
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Nov 2018

    • Equity markets dropped amid concerns about global demand and US-Sino trade tensions
    • GBPUSD traded higher as “vote of no confidence” headlines lost momentum
    • Focus on BoE’s Carney’s lawmaker address today at 11:00 GMT


    Asian equities followed their US counterparts lower overnight primarily led by a sell-off in US technology stocks. The risk-off sentiment was driven by concerns about global demand and conflicting messages from the US and China on their trade relations (Reuters)
    Investor confidence also came under pressure after the US homebuilders confidence index suffered its biggest drop since 2014 amid rising borrowing costs (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the risk aversion prompted increased demand for safe havens, with both JPY and CHF rising against the USD. At the same time, commodity currencies fell led by AUDUSD hitting a low of 0.7270 this morning. The Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded in a relatively tight range but ended the day slightly lower
    GBPUSD saw some volatility amid Brexit headlines yesterday, dropping below 1.2800 after Spain expressed concerns about the Brexit Withdrawal deal with regards to Gibraltar (Bloomberg). Sterling then rebounded as headlines around a vote of no confidence lost momentum
    Today markets watch BoE Governor Carney as he takes questions about Brexit from lawmakers, together with his colleagues Cunliffe, Haldane and Saunders. He will discuss the bank’s new economic forecasts, and potentially his thoughts on how a “no-deal” Brexit would affect monetary and financial stability (Bloomberg)

  2. #922
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Nov 2018

    • Global equities continued to sell-off while Brent prices hit new YTD lows
    • GBPUSD came under pressure as Brexit concerns remain
    • Focus on the EC’s response to Italy’s budget plan today


    Global equities continued to sell off yesterday and overnight amid ongoing concerns about global growth. Losses were led by US energy shares which were under pressure due to the c.6% drop in oil prices, with Brent hitting a new YTD low of $61.71/ barrel at one point
    Safe haven demand prompted the Bloomberg USD Spot Index to rise throughout yesterday. At the same time, the low oil prices weighed on commodity currencies including CAD and NOK
    GBPUSD came under renewed pressure yesterday, once again dropping below 1.2800 amid concerns around a “no confidence vote” and Spain’s criticism with regards to Gibraltar. BoE’s Carney has shown his support for PM May’s Brexit Withdrawal deal but expects short-term volatility in economic data (Bloomberg)
    Today’s focus is on PM May’s visit in Brussels for further Brexit talks
    In Europe, the EC has the opportunity to recommend an ‘Excessive debt procedure’ against Italy today due to violations of debt reduction benchmarks. Barclays Research’s view is that “to a large extent, (…) we think this is already discounted in EURUSD”
    EURUSD came under pressure yesterday as risk sentiment deteriorated. This morning’s headlines suggested that Italian PM Salvini was open to budget revisions (La Stampa) which saw EURUSD retrace some of yesterday’s losses

  3. #923
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Nov 2018

    • Global equity markets saw a mixed performance yesterday and overnight
    • GBPUSD traded in a relatively tight range amid muted Brexit headlines
    • Focus today on the ECB minutes at 12:30 GMT


    Global equities saw a mixed performance yesterday and overnight, with focus still on US technology and energy shares which saw slight rebounds. Today markets will likely be quiet with US markets closed for Thanksgiving
    Brexit negotiations continued yesterday but headlines were muted and thus GBPUSD traded in a relatively tight range around 1.2800. After PM May and EU Commission President Juncker met in Brussels, we learned that PM May will return on Saturday to finalise plans ahead of the EU Summit on Sunday (Bloomberg)
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index reversed some of Tuesday’s gains, weighed down by reports that the Fed may choose to pause its monetary tightening and potentially end its hiking cycle as early as spring 2019 (MNI)
    Nonetheless, markets still price in a hike at the December meeting with odds above 70% (Bloomberg)
    The EU has commenced disciplinary proceedings against the Italian government as its spending plan violates the EU’s fiscal rules, thus taking a first step towards imposing fines on Italy. In response, Italian Deputy PM Salvini maintained his stance on the Italian budget, insisting that the main principles will not be amended (Bloomberg)
    Markets seem to have expected the announcement and the follow-through in EURUSD was relatively muted


  4. #924
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Nov 2018

    • European and Asian equities traded lower yesterday and overnight
    • GBPUSD rose 0.8% yesterday on positive Brexit progress
    • Focus on EU Summit this Sunday, 25th November


    European equities came under pressure yesterday amid weak corporate earnings, while their Asian counterparts dropped overnight as US-Sino trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment (Reuters). Trading activity was generally muted as US markets were closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, and Japan is on holiday today
    GBPUSD rose c.0.8% yesterday after the UK and the EU agreed in principle on an expanded draft declaration on the future relationship after Brexit (Bloomberg). This agreement is due to be approved alongside the Withdrawal Agreement at the EU Summit on Sunday, 25th November
    Although the EU aims to get approval by all 27 member states, the document actually only requires a qualified majority vote by 20 of the 27 member states (BBC)
    Nonetheless, Spain’s opposition with regards to Gibraltar as well as inner political tensions in the UK could continue to pose headline risk ahead of Sunday’s summit
    The October ECB minutes signaled that the committee intends to halt QE at the December meeting, albeit mentioning risks related to protectionism, vulnerabilities of emerging markets and financial market volatility
    In data, Euro-area consumer confidence dropped in November to its worst level since March 2017. Focus today is on E19 “Flash” PMIs at 09:00 GMT
    Elsewhere, the SARB hiked interest rates by 25bp for the first time since 2016 to 6.75%, surprising markets and driving USDZAR down to its lowest level since August

  5. #925
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 26 Nov 2018

    • Global equities came under pressure last week, but opened modestly higher this week
    • EU countries approved the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement yesterday
    • Focus on G20 summit alongside Trump-Xi Jinping meeting on Friday


    Global equity markets came broadly under pressure last week amid concerns about global demand and Sino-US trade tensions, with the DOW having its worst Thanksgiving week since 2011. Overnight we have seen most Asian stocks and US equity futures rise whilst USDJPY traded with an offered tone amid an improving risk sentiment
    Markets await the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday, 30th November, at the sidelines of the G20 summit
    The Withdrawal Agreement and the expanded draft of the ‘Political Declaration on the Future Relationship’ were both accepted at yesterday’s extraordinary EU summit. Focus now turns to the Parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal, with latest reports suggesting it could take place on 12th December (Telegraph)
    Barclays Research believe “risks are asymmetric around the margin of votes in the Parliament - a rejection of the agreement by a wide margin increases the probability of a no-deal Brexit, and should see significant GBP potential downside of 5-10%”
    GBPUSD dropped on Friday and has traded fairly range-bound around 1.2820 this morning as pressure on PM May remains and headlines about domestic policy are ongoing
    EURUSD traded higher this morning amid headlines that Italy’s coalition government discusses cuts to the 2019 deficit target from the current 2.4% (Reuters)
    Brent prices fell c.13% last week but retraced some of the losses, rising c.2% overnight. Downward pressure originated from concerns about global demand and higher supply

  6. #926
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 27 Nov 2018

    • Risk sentiment whipsaws on Italy progress and Trump trade comments
    • Trump threatens proposed Brexit deal may hinder future UK/US trade deal
    • Parliamentary vote on Brexit set for 11th December


    Risk sentiment received a boost yesterday on the back of Italy’s seeming willingness to cut its budget deficit. Italian newspaper sources now claim the 2019 budget deficit will “almost certainly” be reduced to 2.2% from 2.4%. Furthermore, reports stated Deputy Leaders Salvini and Di Maio do not feel it is worthwhile “to go to war” with the European Union. Equities ground higher on the day while the USD sold off versus both GBP and EUR with EURUSD and GBPUSD hitting highs of 1.1384 and 1.2865 respectively
    However, with hopes building of a cease-fire in the US-China trade war ahead of this week’s G-20 leader’s summit, Trump dealt a blow to sentiment overnight. He said he expects to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports and repeated his threat to put tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports should the negotiations with Xi prove fruitless. As a result the USD has made back some ground this morning with GBPUSD and EURUSD hovering around 1.2750 and 1.1300 respectively
    It was reported yesterday the parliamentary vote is set to take place on 11th December

  7. #927
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 28 Nov 2018

    • US and Asian equities are broadly higher with the G20 summit soon approaching
    • GBPUSD fell to its lowest level since the former Brexit Secretary Raab’s resignation
    • Focus on Fed Governor Powell’s speech at 17:00 GMT


    US and Asian equity markets traded mostly higher after US economic advisor Kudlow confirmed a dinner meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 summit, implying that the US is open for a deal with China
    At the same time, news that Trump could impose tariffs on imported cars from next week onwards prompted European auto stocks to drop sharply (Wirschaftswoche)
    The Bloomberg USD Spot index rose yesterday, led by position adjustment after the latest tariff headlines hit the wires. The index currently sits at the highest in 11 sessions
    Focus today is on Fed’s Governor Powell’s speech today at 17:00 GMT ahead of tomorrow FOMC meeting minutes. President Trump has reiterated his criticisms towards the Fed, blaming them for damaging the economy (Reuters)
    GBPUSD dropped c.0.6% yesterday morning as PM May started a UK tour to gather support for her Brexit deal. It was also reported that a motion will allow MPs to change the wording of the deal and even be able to call for another referendum
    Nearly 100 Conservative MPs have publicly committed to voting against the Brexit deal when it is put to a vote (Bloomberg)
    Both the Bank of England and the UK Treasury are to release forecasts for the UK economy under various Brexit scenarios later today. Shortly after, BoE Governor Carney speaks at a press conference at 16:45 GMT

  8. #928
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 29 Nov 2018

    • Equities rally and Dollar drops after ‘dovish’ Powell speech
    • BoE Governor projects a scenario in the event of a ‘no-deal’
    • Focus is on FOMC minutes today


    US and Asian equities rallied following Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s “dovish” speech yesterday, where he stated US monetary policy was not on a “preset” path and interest rates were near the ‘neutral’ level where they neither stimulate nor hinder economic growth. Markets viewed this as dovish with the dollar index falling 0.6%. US equities rallied on the back of this and momentum spread into Asian stocks overnight
    Ahead of the G20 summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored threats from Trump to cancel a meeting with him due to Moscow’s seizure of three Ukrainian navy ships while also accusing the Ukrainian president of orchestrating the crisis. US-China relations will be another focus at the summit. Barclays Research expects the US-China relationship to remain difficult beyond this week, and trade tensions to intensify next year
    BoE Governor Mark Carney warned in a press conference yesterday that in a ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK could suffer the worst economic slump since World War II. However, GBPUSD did not react strongly to this and then rallied to session highs of 1.2847 after Powell’s speech fuelled a USD sell-off
    Focus turns to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes this evening which could reveal more on the future path of US monetary policy

  9. #929
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 Nov 2018

    • Markets focus firmly on G20 Summit
    • Sterling remained under pressure yesterday on Brexit concerns
    • FOMC minutes suggest Fed less enthusiastic on further hikes beyond December


    With Brexit having often taken centre stage this week, attention should turn to the G20 summit this weekend, where key issues such as bilateral trade relations between the US and China will be confronted as well as the killing of Khashoggi and Russia’s recent activity in Crimea
    Asian stocks have traded marginally higher so far in Friday’s session as the summit approaches. The risk-on sentiment comes as markets hope for a breakthrough in US-China relations as the two leaders meet. Trump has stated that he is “open to making a deal” although known China critic Peter Navarro will be present
    GBP fell 0.6% against EUR and 0.5% against USD yesterday morning as PM May outlined the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit as she defended her withdrawal agreement before the House of Commons Liaison committee. GBPEUR dropped to its lowest level in a week yesterday to 1.1210 and more GBP volatility can be expected ahead of the Parliament vote on 11th December
    November’s FOMC meeting minutes, released yesterday, pointed towards a December rate hike as almost every member was happy to raise interest rates “fairly soon”. However, they seemed less enthusiastic for tightening after that point as the minutes revealed “further gradual increases” may need to be modified. Barclays Research continues to expect one more rate hike in 2018 and four more in 2019

  10. #930
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 03 Dec 2018

    • Asian equities rallied overnight further to news that US-Sino trade war is paused
    • GBP under pressure amid negative Brexit sentiment
    • Oil rallies on production cuts


    US equities closed last week in the green, and their Asian counterparts traded higher overnight as the G20 summit saw US and China agree to a 90-day truce leaving existing tariffs at current levels. US President Trump also tweeted that China would ‘reduce and remove’ the 40% tariff on American cars (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell overnight, while AUD and NZD outperformed on the positive trade news
    GBPUSD traded lower last week, owing to increasing tensions surrounding the Withdrawal Agreement, finishing the week at 1.2750 after highs of 1.2850 and lows of 1.2720. This week, PM May continues her tour of the UK in her attempt to sell the deal
    PM May is under pressure from MPs to publish the legal advice on Brexit from the Attorney General (Bloomberg). In addition, a five-day Brexit debate begins in the House of Commons on Tuesday ahead of the final vote on 11th December
    Oil gained more than 5% after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to extend their accord on oil production cuts, and the Canadian province of Alberta announced it would slash its own output (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research think “oil volatility will likely remain elevated into Thursday’s OPEC meeting”

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