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  1. #1151
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 Nov 2019

    • Asian equities trade higher on optimism around US-China trade deal discussions
    • GBPUSD gained last week as polls suggest Tory strength
    • In EM, Moody’s refrain from South Africa downgrade, boosting ZAR


    Asian equities traded higher overnight amid growing optimism over US-China trade talks and as the better-than-expected US jobs report boosted risk assets. On Friday, the US and China both said they had made progress in trade talks, and US officials said a deal could be signed this month
    US nonfarm payrolls came out much higher than predicted on Friday, 128k compared to market expectations of an 89k rise
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index dropped after the release of the US labour report, and continued its downward trend this morning
    GBPUSD traded higher last week, moving from lows of around 1.2800 to a high of 1.2976 as polls suggested Conservative strength. Over the weekend, PM Johnson apologised for not delivering Brexit by 31st October while blaming Parliament for refusing to back the accelerated timetable he requested. Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said he would not make another attempt to win a seat in the House of Commons (FT)
    Markets will continue to watch political headlines this week. In UK Parliament, MPs will vote on the new Speaker of the House today as Bercow retires. The BoE meets on Thursday and is likely to stay on hold amid the current uncertainty in the UK
    In EM, ZAR strengthened against USD this morning after Moody’s held back from downgrading the Government’s debt. It kept readings at Baa3, one grade above speculative grade in a move that stopped South Africa from being excluded from the FTSE World Government Bond Index
    USDZAR traded c.1.8% lower overnight from 15.07 to below 14.80 (Bloomberg)

  2. #1152
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 05 Nov 2019

    • White House officials debate whether to remove tariffs on $112bn of Chinese goods
    • UK Parliament elects a new speaker following the retirement of John Bercow
    • Australia’s central bank keeps rates unchanged at 0.75%


    Asian equities followed US stocks into the green overnight amid reports that White House officials are debating whether to remove tariffs on $112bn of Chinese imports as a concession to a partial deal with Beijing as early as this month. The tariffs were introduced on 1st September at 15%, and ending them is a core demand from China (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded lower yesterday from around 1.2940 to lows of 1.2876 amid general USD strength and as a UK election poll showed Conservatives positioned marginally weaker than expected. PM Johnson said that if he wins the election, he will take Britain out of the EU ‘by the end of January.’ Labour leader Corbyn will argue in a speech today that he can renegotiate a better exit deal in Brussels and hold a second EU referendum before next summer (FT)
    UK Parliament elected a new Speaker of the House yesterday, following the retirement of incumbent Bercow. Labour’s Lindsay Hoyle won the vote after promising to heal divisions over Brexit – he has never revealed his views on the issue. As part of the process, he will renounce his Labour affiliation
    Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged at 0.75% overnight as widely expected. Overall, the statement remained broadly dovish; the board left the door open for further easing while expressing modest optimism around the economy. Barclays Research expect the cash rate to remain at the current level or lower for the next two to three years
    AUDUSD strengthened c.0.5% after the meeting, moving from below 0.6880 to above 0.6910 (Bloomberg)

  3. #1153
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 06 Nov 2019

    • Asian equities under pressure amid a lack of news on US-China trade
    • UK’s five week election campaign officially begins today
    • UK October services PMI comes out better than expected


    Asian equities came broadly under pressure overnight amid a lack of news around US-China trade. No announcements were made yesterday from US officials about the proposed removal of tariffs on Chinese goods, causing Asian stocks to falter (Reuters)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index climbed higher yesterday after better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing data. The headline number came in at 54.7 vs. consensus expectations of 53.5
    GBPUSD traded broadly sideways yesterday as markets await further news around UK general election positioning. It was reported yesterday that former Chancellor Phillip Hammond has decided to step down as an MP after he was expelled from the Conservative Party last month. The campaign officially begins today, with five weeks of campaigning before the vote on Thursday 12th December (FT)
    PM Johnson will formally announce the election later today in a speech outside Downing Street (Reuters)
    In data, UK October services PMI data came out stronger than forecast yesterday, printing flat at 50.0 as opposed to market predictions of a slight contraction of 49.7. It saw general improvement month-on-month, with all components increasing from September apart from declines in input prices and new business, which has been attributed to ongoing Brexit-related uncertainty
    German factory orders were released this morning, and came out higher than predicted at 1.3% compared to market predictions of a 0.1% increase

  4. #1154
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Nov 2019

    • Asian equities mixed overnight amid reports of a trade deal delay
    • GBPUSD trades lower on mixed political headlines from the UK
    • The Bank of England is widely expected to stay on hold today


    Asian equities traded mixed overnight after reports that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi might not sign a partial trade deal until December, as discussions continue over terms and venue. According to a US official, London is being considered as a potential signing location, where the two leaders could meet after the NATO summit on 3rd – 4th December (Reuters)
    The ‘phase 1’ agreement is widely expected to include a US pledge to scrap tariffs scheduled for 15th December on c.$156b of Chinese imports, including electronics and toys
    GBPUSD traded slightly lower yesterday amid mixed political headlines as UK political parties kicked off their campaigns. PM Johnson spoke outside Downing Street, promising to deliver Brexit by January and preside over a ‘moderate and compassionate government.’ However this was overshadowed after the resignation of Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns
    Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, announced that he would be quitting politics, standing down from the deputy position and as an MP (FT)
    The Bank of England meets today, but is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Barclays Research expect the committee to ‘fine-tune forecasts in line with the falling chances of a no-deal, and see the bias for a rate cut fading, consistent with the neutral market pricing for the November meeting
    The rate decision, meeting minutes and November MPC report will all be released at 12:00 GMT
    Markets will also watch the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility, as it publishes its budget-deficit forecast for next year. It could add as much as £20bn to the deficit forecast – meaning the UK may miss fiscal rules requiring the deficit to be below 2% of GDP (Bloomberg)

  5. #1155
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 Nov 2019

    • Asian equities under pressure overnight
    • Chinese import/export data better than expected
    • GBP trades lower following dovish Bank of England meeting


    Asian equities came under pressure overnight despite US and Chinese trade negotiators agreeing to reduce tariffs as a key part of any agreement. However, White House advisors disputed this, arguing that the removal of tariffs had not been agreed. In data, China’s exports and imports contracted less than expected in October, providing some relief for the economy (Reuters)
    Exports fell 0.9% vs. consensus expectations of a 3.9% fall
    Imports fell by 3.5% vs. market expectations of a 5.4% fall
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded higher yesterday and overnight

    GBPUSD traded lower yesterday following a surprisingly dovish Bank of England meeting. Whilst the committee kept rates on hold at 0.75%, two members voted for a 25bp cut, highlighting that ‘extra stimulus was required to ensure sustained return of inflation to the target.’ Other committee members believe that expectations of reduced Brexit uncertainty justified the status quo
    Barclays Research maintain their view that the central bank will remain on hold throughout 2020, with risks skewed to the downside

    In UK election news, the Conservatives and Labour are both announcing new measures as they seek to invigorate their campaigns. Johnson is announcing new visas to fast-track foreign doctors and nurses into the country after Brexit, while Corbyn is unveiling a package of measures to improve working conditions for women, including a plan to reduce the gender pay gap (Bloomberg)

  6. #1156
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Nov 2019

    • Asian stocks in the red following trade talk uncertainty and escalations in Hong Kong
    • The Hang Seng index moved more than 2.5% lower
    • Rate decision due from New Zealand this week


    The majority of Asian stock indices traded lower overnight amid trade talk uncertainty, fresh escalation of violent protests in Hong Kong and worse than expected Chinese data. There were reports that President Trump said his willingness to roll back tariffs are incorrect and that China want a deal much more. Chinese PPI fell 1.6% in October versus expectations of 1.5%
    The benchmark Hang Seng traded over 2.7% lower overnight and was the region’s worst performing benchmark. USDCNH moved back above 7.00 overnight (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the JPY traded stronger versus most of its peers as investors seek safe haven with USDJPY trading c.0.3% lower overnight. NZDUSD traded c.0.3% higher overnight, most likely driven by positioning ahead of the RBNZ meeting this week. This reversed some of the losses from last week when the pair traded c.1.5% lower (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded c.1.3% lower last week due to political uncertainty as the election campaign kicked off and the Bank of England took a more dovish stance than expected. The market is currently pricing a 1/3 probability of a rate cut by end of January next year but Barclays Research do not expect a rate change through 2020
    Moody’s rating agency has lowered UK’s credit outlook as the Brexit “paralysis” has made policymaking less predictable. S&P and Fitch already has UK on negative watch (FT)
    This week we receive two central bank rate decisions, New Zealand’s RBNZ on Wednesday and Mexico’s Banxico Thursday. Barclays Research expects both banks to deliver 25bp rate cuts. They believe NZDUSD could trade lower as they expect a larger cut than current market pricing

  7. #1157
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 Nov 2019

    • Asian stocks traded mixed as the market awaits President Trump’s speech later today
    • GBPUSD stronger following message that the Brexit party will not compete against the Tory party
    • NZD lower as the market is pricing a higher probability of a cut from the RBNZ tomorrow


    Asian stocks traded mixed overnight amid continued political unrest in Hong Kong and ahead of President Trump’s speech later today. He is expected to comment on progress of phase one progress and potentially on tariffs of imported European Union autos (Reuters)
    European stocks climbed higher following headlines yesterday saying that the tariffs might be removed. Treasuries also rose overnight as trading resumed after Monday’s US holiday
    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday and recovered much of its losses from last week, trading c.0.8% higher after Brexit Party Leader, Nigel Farage, announced that his party will no longer compete against the Conservatives in the UK’s upcoming General Election. Farage’s decision boosts PM Johnson’s chances of winning a majority. Farage also stated that he has been reassured by Johnson’s plans for a sharper split with the EU (Bloomberg)
    In FX, NZD weakened c.0.35% overnight, reversing all the gains from the previous day as 2 year inflation expectations fell to 1.8% (1.86% prior). This caused the market to re-price the probability of a rate cut from the RBNZ on Wednesday, currently pricing at 75% probability which is around a 10% increase from yesterday
    Both JPY and CHF were among the top performers yesterday. Overnight JPY reversed all these gains versus the USD while the CHF held onto some of them, still trading c.0.25% lower (Bloomberg)
    There are still no signs of stronger actions from OPEC and its partners in order to support oil prices, just weeks ahead of the next meeting (Bloomberg). Barclays Research revised down their forecast for Brent to $62/bbl for both Q4 19 and 2020 as they project a higher forecast for non-OPEC supply growth outside of the US

  8. #1158
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Nov 2019

    • Asian stocks traded lower following President Trumps speech
    • GBPUSD traded sideways following mixed UK employment data
    • RBNZ held rates at 1%, against market expectations


    Global stocks traded lower overnight following comments from President Trump around trade policy and continued unrest in Hong Kong. During the anticipated speech yesterday the President said that a trade deal was “close”, however if China did not agree to a deal, he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods “very substantially”. There were no details in regards to when or where the phase one deal would be signed (Reuters)
    Brent Crude fell c.0.5% amid increased uncertainty around a trade deal and after a report by the IEA predicted that global oil demand will hit a plateau around 2030. They predict the growth rate to be around 100,000 barrels a day (currently 1 million barrels a day) due to more efficient electric vehicles (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the USD traded stronger versus a majority of its peers, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index c.0.25% stronger yesterday and overnight. CHF traded stronger overnight amid increased uncertainty, trading c.0.15% higher versus the USD (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded sideways yesterday amid mixed UK employment data. Unemployment came lower at 3.8% beating expectations of 3.9% while wages missed expectations of 3.8% and came in at 3.6% (Bloomberg)
    New Zealand’s RBNZ surprised the market by holding its main rate at 1.00% during their meeting overnight, causing NZDUSD to jump c.1.4% from 0.6330 to 0.6417. Two-year bond yields climbed 18 basis points and two-year swap rates had their largest gain in a decade.
    Before the meeting the market was pricing around a 86% probability of a cut, expectations rose the day before the meeting as 2 year inflation expectations fell (Bloomberg)

  9. #1159
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 Nov 2019

    • Asian equities under pressure after poor economic data from China
    • GBPUSD trades sideways amid a lack of political news
    • German GDP surprises to the upside this morning


    Asian equities came under pressure overnight following worse-than-expected economic data from China. Investment grew just 5.2% and industrial production also disappointed, coming out at 4.7% y/y vs. consensus expectations of 5.4%. Japanese data was also poor, as GDP expanded 0.2% q/q vs expectations of 0.9%
    Japan’s Nikkei traded 0.76% lower while the Hang Seng was 1.1% lower following the data releases
    Despite the poor data, Barclays Research raised their 2019 GDP growth forecast by 10bp to 6.1% and for 2020 by 30bp to 5.8% as a more positive outlook on trade talks allows growth momentum to stabilise
    GBPUSD traded sideways again yesterday amid a lack of significant political news. We did receive some economic data; CPI for October, which came in worse than expected at -0.2% (market expectations were for -0.1%). Barclays Research reported that weakness came from housing and an easing in overall import prices – mostly due to lower oil prices
    Looking ahead our researchers expect stronger growth over the medium term, but lower imported inflation, which should offset each other leaving underlying inflationary pressure broadly unchanged
    They still do not predict the Bank of England to deliver any rate hikes, as Brexit trade uncertainties prevail
    German GDP surprised to the upside this morning, coming out at 0.1% after the market predicted a contraction of 0.1%, pushing the economy into recession. The surprise increase was led by consumer and government spending, while investment in machinery and equipment fell. The contraction of 0.2% in Q2 was revised up to 0.1% (Bloomberg)
    In FX, EURUSD traded higher this morning following the stronger data release – reversing some losses overnight where the pair traded to a low of 1.0994 (Bloomberg)

  10. #1160
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 Nov 2019

    • Asian stocks traded higher following comments from White House economic adviser Kudlow
    • GBPUSD posted gains yesterday amid USD weakness
    • USDJPY traded higher for the first time this week


    Asian stocks traded higher overnight as White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow injected some optimism into the market around a US-China trade deal being close. This saw S&P 500 closing at record highs and most global equity indices rose overnight (Reuters)
    The only index struggling to make gains were China’s CSI300 index which traded lower amid weaker than expected Chinese data. Industrial production came in at 4.7% y/y (consensus: 5.6% y/y) and retail sales came in at 7.2% y/y (consensus: 7.8% y/y) (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD gained c.0.25% yesterday afternoon trading to around 1.2880 amid USD weakness, after trading sideways in the morning. Yesterday ahead of the nomination deadline, Nigel Farage announced that the Brexit party will still contest seats in Labour-held constituencies. However there have been a few Brexit party candidates who have stepped down and endorsed the conservative party (FT)
    One month volatility in GBPUSD spiked yesterday as the period now captures the general election on the 12th December
    In FX, JPY weakened versus its peers for the first time this week amid positive headlines around trade discussions, it reversed some of its gains from yesterday – trading c.0.15% lower versus the USD. Commodity currencies made small gains overnight after a week of losses
    Yesterday AUDUSD traded c.0.9% lower amid worsening employment data and overall risk sentiment - employment fell by 19,000 in October (market expectations of 15,000) (Bloomberg)
    Yesterday Fed Chairman Powell testified in front of Congress for the second day in a row and he said that he does not see any signs of overheating in the US economy and that rules may need to be tweaked after the repo crisis earlier this autumn. This saw the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index moving lower and the policy-sensitive US two-year treasury yield rose (Bloomberg)

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