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  1. #1091
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 06 Aug 2019

    • Global equities drop after US labels China a currency manipulator
    • Concerns ease somewhat after PBoC fixes Yuan stronger-than-expected
    • RBA leaves policy rate unchanged at 1.00%


    Global equities sold-off amid escalating US-China trade tensions after the US labeled China a currency manipulator, in response to China allowing the renminbi to break through a key threshold of 7.00 yesterday. The S&P 500 closed c.3% lower, touching two month lows of 2822.12 and the NASDAQ closed c.3.5% in the red (Bloomberg)
    Demand for safe haven assets continued yesterday and US 10-year Treasury yields fell to lows last seen in September 2016 of 1.6705%
    Overnight the PBoC set its Yuan fixing at 6.9683 per dollar, stronger-than-expected by the market, slightly easing concerns about a currency war between the US and China. They also announced the sale of 30bn Yuan bonds in Hong Kong which typically worsens liquidity offshore (Bloomberg)
    Further to this, USDJPY traded 1.10% higher, briefly touching 107.09 before erasing some gains, and US 10-year Treasury yields rebounded back towards 1.75% (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research thinks the recent developments have increased the likelihood of a full US-China escalation scenario – defined by them as 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports
    The RBA left its key interest rate on hold at 1.00%, after cutting the benchmark in the last two consecutive meetings. RBA Governor Lowe said in a statement “the Board will continue to monitor developments in the labor market closely and ease monetary policy further if needed”
    New Zealand’s Q2 labour market data was much stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% sa from 4.2% in Q1 19. NZDUSD initially spiked higher to 0.6587 before erasing gains. Our Research team still expects the RBNZ to cut rates by 25bp to 1.25% at the meeting overnight

  2. #1092
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Aug 2019

    • US equities rebound after comments from President Trump’s advisor
    • RBNZ cuts key rate by a surprise 50bps
    • NZDUSD and AUDUSD sell-off by more than 1%



    US equities rebounded yesterday, with the S&P 500 reporting its largest one-day gain in two months, after comments from President Trump’s economic advisor, Larry Kudlow. He eased investor concerns about US-China trade tensions by saying that Washington wanted to continue talks with China and planned to invite “the Chinese team” to the US in September (FT)
    Asian equities were mixed despite the developments and haven assets remained in demand with JPY strengthening overnight and US 10-year Treasury yields were down 2bp


    In terms of US-China trade tensions specifically, China has said the recent depreciation of renminbi was driven by market forces, not Beijing, and denied the Trump administration’s recent accusation of being a “currency manipulator” (FT)
    USDCNY continued to strengthen overnight, gaining c.0.3% to highs of 7.0586, after the PBoC set its fixing at the symbolic level of 6.9996 (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research expects USDCNY to trade at 7.25 by Q2 20


    The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate by a surprise 50bp to 1.00%, compared to the market consensus of 25bp. Forward guidance was removed from the bank’s statement and it left the door open to further rate cuts. Barclays Research thinks “today’s decision and Governor Orr’s conference pave the way for further easing and expects another 25bp cut in November”
    NZDUSD sold-off c.2% to lows of 0.6378 after the decision, lowest level since January 2016. AUDUSD followed suite and dropped c.1%, below 0.6720, on speculation the RBA would follow in the RBNZ’s footsteps of further easing over the coming months (Bloomberg)


    Brent prices extended declines, falling c.2.5% yesterday to below $60/ barrel and touching YTD lows of $58.55, down 21% from its April 2019 peak, amid growing prospects of an extended US-China trade war

  3. #1093
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 Aug 2019

    • Asian equities higher after China bolsters market sentiment
    • Treasury yields fall to 2016 lows amid looser monetary policy
    • Brent Crude touches 7-month low of $55.88 a barrel


    Asian equities rose after the PBoC set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.0039, weaker than 7.0000 for the first time since 2008 but stronger than analysts’ expectations of 7.0156. This, along with better-than-expected Chinese export data, helped bolster market sentiment
    China’s exports unexpectedly rebounded, registering growth of 3.3% in July after a contraction of 1.1% in June. Also, the contraction in exports to the US narrowed to -6.5% in July, from -7.8% in June
    USDCNY traded c.0.2% lower after reaching highs of 7.0652, AUDUSD rallied from 10-year lows of 0.6677 and NZDUSD followed suit, trading off 3-year lows of 0.6378 to 0.6857 overnight (Bloomberg)
    Treasuries rallied yesterday, sparked by expectations of looser global monetary policy after central banks in India, New Zealand and Thailand cut rates and signaled worries over a slowing global economy. US 10-year Treasury yields dropped as much as 11bps on Wednesday to a low of 1.593%, lowest level since October 2016, before erasing losses and trading above 1.73%
    In UK politics, the Liberal Democrats have reportedly taken back the idea of making Labour leader Corbyn a ‘caretaker’ PM therefore making it harder for Labour to form a caretaker government. According to reports in the FT, PM Johnson is expected to face a no-confidence vote when Parliament returns in September and, if the Tory party fails to win this vote, Labour said they will attempt to form an alternative government
    Brent Crude continued to decline and touched a 7-month low of $55.88 a barrel yesterday before recovering some ground to $58 a barrel amid reports Saudi Arabia phoned other oil producers to discuss possible policy responses to stabilise prices (FT)

  4. #1094
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 Aug 2019

    • US equities rally yesterday, but trade tensions weigh on optimism overnight
    • Italian deputy PM calls for early election
    • Focus is on UK and US economic data today


    US equities rallied yesterday on US-China trade optimism, with the S&P 500 c.2% higher on the day, after the better-than-expected China export data soothed investor concerns. However, optimism was short lived and Asian equities traded mixed overnight as President Trump is reportedly delaying licenses for US companies looking to deal with Chinese firm Huawei (FT)
    USDJPY dropped to lows of 105.50 overnight and US 10-year Treasury yields fell by 2bps to c.1.70% amid the escalation in trade tensions
    GBPUSD traded to lows of 1.2095 yesterday before retracing losses amid broad-based USD weakness. The Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell c.0.2% after President Trump tweeted his displeasure about the strong greenback (Bloomberg)
    In Brexit news, PM Johnson told the BBC “I very much hope that our friends and partners will show common sense and that they will compromise”. Chancellor Javid delayed a three-year spending review to 2020 amid the Brexit stalemate (Bloomberg)
    Focus for the UK today is the economic data released at 09:30 BST
    Matteo Salvini, the Italian deputy Prime Minister, called for early polls in Italy after recent threats to dismantle the current ruling coalition. Salvini said the government no longer has a majority and aims to replace Giuseppe Conte as PM
    The yield on Italian 10-year Government bonds gapped 20bps higher after the election call (Bloomberg)
    NZDUSD ticked higher towards 0.6500 as RBNZ Governor Orr said, after the surprise rate cut on Wednesday, “we’re in a great starting position but we do see increasing headwinds in front of us and so we want to do our actions now” (Bloomberg)

  5. #1095
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 Aug 2019

    • Global equities under pressure last week amid escalating Sino-US relations
    • GBPUSD drops following worse-than-expected UK GDP
    • EURUSD traded higher last week, but Barclays Research maintain their bearish view


    Global equities traded lower on Friday after US President Trump told reporters in Washington that he is not ready to make a deal with China, and planned trade talks in September could be postponed (Bloomberg). This week has started with a positive risk sentiment with European and US futures in the green, while many Asian markets are closed for holidays
    In FX, JPY strengthened against the USD to the strongest levels since January last week as investors move to safe-havens
    GBPUSD came under pressure on Friday after UK GDP came in at -0.2%, the first contraction since 2012. This pushed GBPUSD down to near 3 year lows of 1.2025 (Bloomberg), and Barclays Research have revised down their 2019 growth forecast for the UK to just 1.1%
    In UK politics, PM Johnson announced plans to spend £2.5bn to build more prison space and hire more police officers in a move that is fuelling expectations that he aims to call an election (Bloomberg)
    This week, UK employment and inflation data will help the market further gauge the resilience of the UK economy
    EURUSD traded higher last week, with most gains made on Monday, likely due to the market unwinding euro-funded EM shorts. However, Barclays Research continue to maintain a bearish EUR view amid a rising risk of a no-deal Brexit and a unexpected push for snap elections in Italy risking a potential clash with the EU Commission over the budget

  6. #1096
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Aug 2019

    • Global equities under pressure amid risk-off sentiment
    • GBPUSD trades broadly higher yesterday
    • Focus is on UK employment and US CPI today


    Global equities came under pressure yesterday and overnight as fears around trade, protests in Hong Kong and political concerns in Argentina drove investors to safe havens. Argentinean President Macri’s surprise primary election setback led to a fall in the peso of as much as 33% yesterday, before it recovered slightly (Bloomberg)
    Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were near their lowest in almost three years, whilst gold was pinned close to six-year highs in a sign of the heightened anxiety in markets (Reuters)
    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, from below 1.2020 to above 1.2100, before receding slightly. US National Security Advisor Bolton said that the US is ready to offer Britain sector-by-sector trade deals after a no-deal exit with the EU, following a meeting between him and PM Johnson (Bloomberg)
    Reports that some UK lawmakers are drawing up plans to force PM Johnson to seek an extension to the 31st October Brexit deadline helped push GBP higher
    In data, we receive UK employment data today at 09:30 BST. Barclays Research is in line with market consensus, expecting no change in unemployment at 3.8%. However, they acknowledge upside risks to the tune of 0.1% following Friday’s worse than expected GDP figure
    We also receive US CPI at 13:30 BST, where Barclays Research is also in line with market consensus. Nonetheless, they expect the annual rate of headline CPI to fall further this year following a decline in energy futures prices
    In Italy, the Senate will set a timeline for a vote of no confidence today, with 20th August the most likely day for the ballot (Bloomberg)

  7. #1097
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 Aug 2019

    • Global equities move higher after US delays some tariffs on Chinese goods
    • UK wages rise at fastest pace in 11 years but unemployment ticks higher
    • Italian Senate postpones further debate on government crisis until next week


    Global equities moved higher overnight with the S&P 500 up c.1.5% after the US delayed the imposition of 10% tariffs on 2/3 of Chinese goods until 15th December. President Trump said afterwards that this decision was taken to prevent the tariffs having an impact on US customers during the Christmas shopping season (Reuters)
    President Trump also mentioned that Sino-US talks have been ‘very productive.’ Chinese officials reportedly intend to keep the planned September meeting for further discussions (Bloomberg)
    Despite the positive trade news, data released overnight showed China’s industrial output grew at the slowest pace in 17 years, while retail sales also fell more than expected
    In FX, JPY weakened against the USD from c.105.20 to c.106.95 before strengthening slightly overnight. Brent Crude made sharp gains following the delay on tariffs yesterday before falling overnight amid a rise in US inventories
    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday morning after the release of UK labour data but reversed these gains in the afternoon. The report was better than expected, with wages rising at their fastest pace in 11 years. However, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 3.9% as more people actively started looking for work (Bloomberg)
    In Brexit news, Speaker Bercow said he’ll refuse to allow Boris Johnson to suspend Parliament as a tactic for pushing through Brexit, potentially increasing the likelihood of another extension (Telegraph)
    In Italy, the Senate postponed further debate on the ongoing government crisis until next week, as some parties in Parliament are seeking ways to avoid an election some four years ahead of schedule (Reuters)

  8. #1098
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 Aug 2019

    • Asian equities trade higher as China announces new support for the economy
    • GBPUSD gains after better than expected UK Retail Sales data
    • President Trump announces the UK and US were ‘moving rapidly towards a trade deal’


    Asian equities traded higher overnight after China’s state planner said Beijing would introduce a new plan to boost disposable income, hinting at further support for the economy. In Sino-US trade, US President Trump said he has a call scheduled ‘very soon’ with Chinese President Xi (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded higher yesterday afternoon following better than expected US Retail Sales, with the headline figure at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m consensus
    GBPUSD strengthened for most of yesterday following better than expected UK Retail Sales data, which printed at 0.2% m/m vs. consensus expectations of -0.2% m/m. Sterling was also boosted after Labour said it would call a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government ‘as soon as it believes it can win it.’ GBPUSD traded lower overnight on broad-based USD strength
    In US-UK trade, President Trump said on Thursday that the US and the UK were moving rapidly towards a trade deal. A senior official confirmed that the two countries are discussing a partial accord that could take place the day after Britain is due to leave the EU (Reuters)
    Elsewhere, Gibraltar allowed the release of the Grace 1 Iranian oil tanker yesterday, which was held after being suspected of breaching sanctions by shipping oil to Syria. The US was against the release, and has threatened sanctions against anyone who does business with the ship or crew (Bloomberg)

  9. #1099
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Aug 2019

    • Global equities higher amid positive comments on US-Sino trade relations
    • GBPUSD rises amid comments from Labour leader Corbyn
    • This week, markets will watch the release of the Fed minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium


    Asian equities traded higher overnight following gains in US stocks on Friday amid positive comments from US President Trump on Sino-US trade. A decision from China’s central bank to change the way it sets a key interest rate benchmark, reducing borrowing costs for companies and supporting the slowing economy, further helped Asian stocks (Reuters)
    US 30-year Treasuries fell for a second day after the US Government said on Friday that it was holding an outreach program for potential issuance of 50 or 100 year securities
    GBPUSD traded c.1% higher to c.1.2175 on Friday following further comments from Labour leader Corbyn that he will do “everything necessary” to stop a no-deal exit from the EU. The Labour party is reportedly planning to bring forward a no-confidence vote after Parliament returns from summer recess (FT)
    This week is quiet in terms of data for Sterling, but the key event will be the G7 summit which begins on Saturday
    This week, markets will watch the release of the US Fed minutes on Wednesday for further clarity on the latest thoughts from the Fed, following the expected 25bp cut at the last Fed meeting. Attention will also be paid to the Jackson Hole Symposium from Thursday to Saturday, where markets will be looking for any commentary on near-term monetary policy
    Barclays Research thinks “markets might be disappointed, as they are already pricing 35bp of cuts for September (…)”. Thus they see “risks skewed for USD strength this week”
    In commodities, Brent crude traded c.1.4% higher this morning, close to $60 a barrel following gains in equity markets and increased tensions in the Middle East over the weekend after attacks on oil facilities over the weekend (Bloomberg)

  10. #1100
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Aug 2019

    • Asian equities higher after US delays restrictions on Huawei
    • Barclays Research’s new central assumption is a no-deal Brexit
    • Our Researchers revise their US Fed call, and now expect 75bp of cuts by year-end


    Updated FX forecasts below
    Asian equities traded broadly higher overnight after the US granted a 90 day delay on restrictions for Huawei, which would have prevented US technology companies selling to the Chinese company (Reuters). In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index reached year-to-date highs amid comments from Boston Fed President Rosengren casting doubts on the need for further Fed cuts (Bloomberg)
    Elsewhere, AUD outperformed after RBA board minutes showed a better domestic growth outlook than expected (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD weakened yesterday amid broad-based USD strength. PM Johnson made his first public attempt to renegotiate the Brexit deal ahead of this Saturday’s G7 meeting by telling the EU he wants to explore different ways to prevent a hard Irish border (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research now see a no-deal exit from the EU as the most likely outcome, and their working assumption. They believe that, “in contrast to Theresa May’s administration, the cabinet under PM Johnson is resolute in its intention to deliver Brexit by the existing deadline of 31st October”
    Based on this new assumption, they predict that the BoE will react by cutting rates by 50bp by mid 2020 and the government will bring forward an emergency budget. They therefore see further weakness in GBP, expecting GBPUSD at 1.09 by year-end
    Our researchers expect reduced Euro-area growth in 2020 as a result, and have lowered their GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp to 0.6%, with risks skewed to the downside
    Barclays Research also revised their estimates for US Federal Reserve rate cuts for the rest of the year, and now expect 75bp of cuts by year-end, up from 50bp previously. They believe that a no-deal Brexit and a slowdown in global growth will drive the FOMC to make further cuts to insulate the US economy from downside risks

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