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  1. #911
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 05 Nov 2018

    • President Trump’s tweet on Thursday that he had a “long and very good conversation with President Jinping of China”
    • Strong economic data from the U.S. is not helping either.
    • The Fed will be meeting on Wednesday


    President Trump’s tweet on Thursday that he had a “long and very good conversation with President Jinping of China” didn’t serve the markets for long. Stocks in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo, SouthKorea,and Australia were all in red today including U.S. futures after White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said on Friday that President Trump had not asked his Cabinet to draw up a trade deal with China. Such conflicting reports make investors more nervous, especially seeing that bears seem to have taken control over the past several weeks.
    Strong economic data from the U.S. is not helping either. Non-farm payrolls grew by 250,000 in October, much better than the anticipated 190,000. More importantly, wages advanced 3.1% year-on-year, the highest in almost a decade. For those investors hoping that the Federal Reserve may slow down the tightening of monetary policy, the non-farm payrolls report just doesn’t help.
    The Fed will be meeting on Wednesday and will likely confirm that a December rate hike is a done deal, ignoring October’s steep selloff in the financial markets. So, if rising interest rates were the primary concern of investors, nothing willchange this week.

  2. #912
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 06 Nov 2018

    • Investors across the globe are keeping a close eye on today’s most expensive U.S.
    • The recent dollar rally was stalled yesterday despite ongoing positive US eco data of late. Investors awaiting the outcome of the US mid-term elections.
    • Wall Street finished the day mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones and the S&P 500


    Investors across the globe are keeping a close eye on today’s most expensive U.S. mid-term election on record. In less than 24 hours, American voters will have their say on how well they think President Trump has handled running the country. The three possible scenarios are a red wall, a blue wave, or a gridlock. But what markets have priced in so far is for Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives while Republicans to remain holding the Senate.
    The recent dollar rally was stalled yesterday despite ongoing positive US eco data of late. Investors awaiting the outcome of the US mid-term elections. A divided Congress might be a temporary negative for the dollar, but probably won’t change to broader picture for the US currency. Sterling continues to profit as investors see growing chance of an EU-UK Brexit deal.
    Wall Street finished the day mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones (+0.76%) and the S&P 500 (+0.56%) advancing and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.38%) edging lower; Apple, Amazon, Google-parent Alphabet and Facebook were some of the notable losers. In Asian markets, the Japanese Nikkei 225 and Topix indices added 1.1% and 1.2% respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up by 0.6%.

  3. #913
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 07 Nov 2018

    • Midterm elections confirmed consensus outcome of a divided government
    • Election result weighed on the USD this morning
    • GBPUSD traded higher amid further positive Brexit headlines


    US equities rallied into yesterday’s close ahead of the US midterm election outcome. This morning’s results then confirmed the consensus outcome of Republicans retaining control of the Senate and Democrats winning the House of Representatives (Reuters)
    The election outcome suggests that Congress will likely be unable to pass significant legislation as both the House and the Senate must pass a bill before it can be signed into law. The USD has taken a small leg lower in reaction, with the Bloomberg USD Spot Index dropping c.0.2% this morning after a volatile session overnight
    Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the FOMC meeting tomorrow
    GBPUSD traded higher overnight supported by positive Brexit headlines around a leak of the plan of action for a Brexit deal, indicating that there may be a meaningful vote on PM May’s Brexit deal on 27th November (Huffington Post) although this could be doubted given it is the same day as the EU summit
    Looking ahead, UK domestic data will be released on Friday, however Brexit progress will continue to be the main market focus
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.3030 in the short term ahead of 1.2940 and 1.2700, while resistance comes in at 1.3250-1.3300. EURGBP support lies at 0.8690-0.8715 while resistance is at 0.8755 ahead of 0.8800 and 0.8835-50
    Elsewhere, NZDUSD rallied overnight further to better than expected New Zealand employment data. Focus is on today’s RBNZ meeting where Barclays Research expect no change in policy

  4. #914
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 08 Nov 2018

    • UK’s Halifax house price index advanced 1.5% on an annual basis in the three months
    • the Democrats captured the House but Republicans retained control of the Senate
    • The Reserve Bank left the OCR at 1.75%, as expected


    Data indicated that, UK’s Halifax house price index advanced 1.5% on an annual basis in the three months ended October 2018, rising at its slowest pace in five years and compared to an increase of 2.5% in the May-July 2018 period. Market participants had expected the index to rise 1.3%.
    US midterm elections were broadly in line with expectations: the Democrats captured the House but Republicans retained control of the Senate. While markets were volatile as the votes were counted, the lack of a major surprise limits the net market response. The outlook for trade policy and the Fed will be unchanged. Major spending cuts and further tax cuts are both unlikely, while there could be some talk of an infrastructure package.
    The Reserve Bank left the OCR at 1.75%, as expected .In the press release, the crucial phrase that the next move could be “up or down” was removed. This implies that the Reserve Bank has moved away from the possibility of reducing the OCR. However, they have not moved any closer to hiking. The numerical OCR forecast was identical to the August forecast, and implies hikes from around mid-2020.
    Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher after U.S. mid-term elections produced a divided Congress on Wednesday. All major U.S. indices climbed more than 2% yesterday, with the Healthcare and Technology sectors leading the rally. Although a divided Congress will make it tougher for President Trump to pass new bills over the next two years, the market’s initial reaction suggests that investors do not expect any reversal of previously enacted legislation.

  5. #915
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 Nov 2018

    • Global equities under pressure while the USD rallied yesterday and overnight
    • The Fed kept interest rates and rhetoric unchanged
    • Continued focus on Brexit headlines as well as UK domestic data today


    US and Asian equities dropped yesterday and overnight as the Fed kept rates unchanged and made no mention of the recent market volatility. The Bloomberg USD Spot Index rallied yesterday and extended its gains overnight, supported by the Fed’s indication that it will continue to tighten monetary policy
    Language changes in the FOMC statement were minor and factual. Barclays Research continues to forecast the next rate hike in December, followed by four more hikes in 2019
    GBPUSD dropped throughout yesterday amid the broad-based USD strength and mixed Brexit headlines. PM May will reportedly speak to ministers on Sunday to secure an agreement on the Irish border issue (Financial Times)
    At the same time, Reuters cited a ‘senior UK government source’ as saying that reports of an imminent deal with the EU should be taken “with a very large pinch of salt”
    Today’s focus is also on UK domestic data, including the Q3 preliminary GDP and IP
    Elsewhere, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement contained several changes of its macroeconomic forecasts. It upgraded its near-term growth and labour market outlook given improvements in the terms of trade and drop in the unemployment rate recently
    The upgrades were however not sufficient to support AUDUSD which actually dropped overnight (Bloomberg)

  6. #916
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 Nov 2018

    • Global equities traded lower at the end of last week after an initial post-midterms rally
    • GBPUSD dropped below 1.2900 this morning on concerns over PM May’s Brexit plan
    • Focus on Italy’s budget response to the European Commission on Tuesday


    Global equities rallied after last week’s US midterm elections resulted in a divided government but reversed some of the gains towards the end of the week. The Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell on the improved risk sentiment initially, but has made strong gains since Wednesday’s US Fed meeting. Today markets may be subdued given the US holiday
    GBPUSD has dropped below 1.2900 this morning on headlines that four ministers may resign over PM May’s Brexit plans (The Sunday Times) following the resignation of transport minister Jo Johnson on Friday
    A Cabinet meeting was expected to take place as soon as today but progress seems to have stalled over the weekend (Bloomberg). Headline risk remains elevated as Parliament returns from recess today
    There are a number of important UK data releases this week, however the main focus will likely remain on Brexit discussions
    Markets will also closely watch Italy’s response to the European Commission’s demands to revise its budget, scheduled for Tuesday. If Italy refuses to comply with the EC’s recommendations or provide a plan of corrective action, it could ultimately be fined
    Elsewhere, Brent prices rose over 2% overnight as Saudi Arabia announced a supply cut in December (Reuters)

  7. #917
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Nov 2018

    • The sell-off in US equities yesterday spread to Asia overnight
    • Italy will respond to the EU Commission’s request to revise its budget today
    • GBPUSD under pressure amid continued Brexit headlines


    Asian equities saw a mixed performance overnight following a weak trading session of US stocks. Losses in the US were led by the technology sector amid fears on global growth and of the rising USD. Overnight risk sentiment improved on headlines that China-US trade talks will resume shortly (Bloomberg) which prompted USDJPY and AUDUSD to trade higher overnight
    The Bloomberg USD Spot Index firmed throughout yesterday and hit fresh YTD highs overnight. At the same time, EURUSD broke below 1.1300 ahead of today’s key event where Italy will respond to the EU Commission’s request to revise its 2019 Draft budget plan
    The Italian government is expected to meet late afternoon followed by a cabinet meeting at 8pm local time (Il Sole24 Ore(
    GBPUSD saw a volatile trading session yesterday amid headlines that PM May sees Brexit negotiations as “immensely difficult” (Bloomberg). Today we get domestic employment data at 9.30 GMT but focus will likely remain on Brexit headlines and today’s Cabinet meeting
    Our traders currently see GBPUSD support at 1.2825 in the short-term ahead of 1.2700, while resistance comes in at 1.2950 and 1.3030. EURGBP continues to trade with an offered tone with spikes capped at 0.8775 while support lies at 0.8690
    Brent dropped below $70/ barrel yesterday after US President Trump criticized Saudi Arabia’s offer to cut oil output (Reuters)


  8. #918
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 14 Nov 2018

    • GBPUSD rallied strongly as PM May agreed Draft Brexit Withdrawal deal with EU
    • Focus on today’s UK Cabinet meeting at 2pm GMT
    • Oil saw the largest daily loss in three years yesterday (Bloomberg)


    GBPUSD rallied c.1.5% yesterday on reports the UK and the EU agreed on a Draft Brexit Withdrawal deal (Reuters). GBPUSD extended gains overnight and is currently trading around 1.3000
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.2940 ahead of 1.2825 and 1.2700, and resistance at 1.3050, 1.3175 and 1.3300. EURGBP support comes in at 0.8650 and 0.8600, while resistance lies at 0.8720 ahead of 0.8775
    Markets now await details on whether the Cabinet approves the proposal. Headlines thus far indicate significant criticism, with Boris Johnson asking for ministerial resignations (Financial Times). Focus today is thus on a round of Prime Minister's Questions in Parliament followed by a key Cabinet meeting at 2pm GMT. Any resignations from key players will be closely monitored
    Elsewhere, concerns over Italy’s budget may have tempered optimism (Reuters). Italy submitted a new 2019 draft budget to the EU Commission with unchanged key assumptions on growth and the deficit, keeping headline deficit for 2019 at 2.4%
    Brent prices fell for the 12th consecutive day approaching $65/ barrel this morning (Bloomberg), weighed down by concerns over weakening world demand and supply cuts

  9. #919
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 15 Nov 2018

    • Asian equities traded higher overnight on easing trade concerns
    • PM May won the backing of her Cabinet for the draft Brexit Withdrawal deal
    • EU Brexit Summit announced for 25th November (Bloomberg)


    Most Asian equities traded higher overnight amid reports that China delivered a written response to the US demand for trade reforms, ahead of the expected meeting between US and Chinese trade negotiators (Bloomberg)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index fell yesterday amid muted inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Powell explained that the US economy is strong, however also indicated that it might experience some headwinds next year (Bloomberg)
    Elsewhere, AUDUSD rallied overnight on better-than-expected Australian employment data
    GBPUSD saw a highly volatile trading session yesterday around the UK Cabinet meeting, hitting session lows of below 1.2900 but also rising above 1.3070 at one point. The eventual support originated from the announcement that Cabinet had approved PM May’s draft Brexit Withdrawal deal
    There have not been any resignations thus far but reports suggest that at least two senior ministers are considering it (Bloomberg). Any further details will be closely watched
    This morning’s headlines revealed that the European Council President Tusk called an extraordinary Brexit Summit for 25th November to sign off on the deal (Bloomberg)
    Elsewhere, Brent prices rebounded slightly yesterday after the significant sell-off on Tuesday, currently trading around $66/ barrel

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