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  1. #1001
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 Mar 2019

    • Dovish Fed signals no rate hikes in 2019 and one in 2020
    • GBPUSD under pressure after formal request for extension
    • Markets will watch the EU Summit and the BoE today


    US equities traded mixed after the Fed signalled at its meeting yesterday that it would not tighten rates at all in 2019 and only once in 2020, reflecting concerns over slowing growth. It also announced that it would taper securities runoff in May and end balance sheet runoff completely in September, and lowered its growth outlook for 2019 and 2020 (Bloomberg)
    Following the meeting, Barclays Research revised their outlook for monetary policy, and expect no further rate hikes in the forecast horizon through the end of 2020
    The surprisingly dovish FOMC stance saw the USD drop against most currencies, with EURUSD rallying c.0.9% after the meeting
    GBPUSD came under pressure yesterday after PM May formally requested an extension to Article 50 until 30th June 2019, indicating that she was not prepared to extend beyond this date. EC President Tusk responded by saying that such an extension would only be possible if the UK Parliament voted in favour of the Withdrawal Agreement by 29th March (FT)
    PM May is expected to bring her deal back for a third Meaningful Vote next Tuesday or Wednesday (FT)
    Today is the first day of the European Summit in Brussels. Whilst a range of topics is to be discussed, the main focus will be on Brexit, and markets will watch for any further response to PM May’s extension request (FT)
    The Bank of England meets today, and Barclays Research expects a unanimous vote to keep rates on hold. They also look for a rhetoric of ‘gradual and limited’ rate hikes in the event of an orderly Brexit

  2. #1002
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 Mar 2019

    • US stocks make gains led by a rally in the technology sector
    • EU announces A50 extension until 12th April if PM May’s deal is rejected next week
    • BoE keeps policy unchanged as expected


    Most US stocks gained yesterday after the surprisingly dovish Fed meeting on Wednesday with the Dow seeing its best day in a month amid a rally in the technology sector. Overnight, we saw a more cautious tone in Asia where equities traded mixed
    In FX, the USD Bloomberg Spot Index rallied throughout yesterday’s session, regaining all of the losses it initially experienced after the FOMC
    Last night, the EU announced that there will be an A50 extension up until 22nd May if the House of Commons approve PM May’s Withdrawal agreement next week. However, it the deal is not passed by Parliament, then the UK has only got time until 12th April to indicate a potential way forward, which is also the date beyond which the UK must begin legislating for the EU elections
    GBPUSD was weighed down by general USD strength yesterday hitting a low of 1.3004 around 4pm GMT (Bloomberg), but the pair has retraced some of its losses since then
    Our traders see GBPUSD support at 1.3000 and resistance at 1.3300 for now. EURGBP support lies at 0.8600 while resistance comes in at 0.8725
    The BoE MPC unanimously voted to leave monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, reiterating its guidance for “gradual and limited” rate hikes over the forecast horizon. Barclays Research maintains their view that the rate will remain unchanged throughout 2019 and 2020

  3. #1003
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 Mar 2019

    • Global equities sold off on Friday amid concerns about global growth
    • Markets await official announcement of a third Meaningful Vote on PM May’s Brexit deal
    • In EM, TRY underperforms vs the USD


    Global equities sold off heavily on Friday amid heightened concerns about global growth following on from disappointing PMI data prints. The negative risk sentiment continued in Asia overnight where Japanese stocks are down more than 3% at the time of writing
    In data, Euro area March composite PMI output fell against Barclays Research and consensus expectations, as the services sector consolidated but failed to compensate for the worsening slump in industrial sentiment
    This week focus returns to the US-Sino trade negotiations which could increase headline risk
    GBPUSD rallied on Friday after the EU announced an unconditional A50 extension until 12th April even if PM May’s deal is not passed by Parliament this week. If however Parliament approves the Withdrawal Agreement in a third Meaningful Vote, likely to be held this week, then there will be an extension until 22nd May
    Focus is on official announcements as to when the third Meaningful Vote will happen, and any further indications of potential support from the DUP
    Barclays Research stated that “markets seem to be assigning a low probability to a “no deal” Brexit and as long as this scenario is avoided, are treating GBP as a “buy-on-dips””
    Elsewhere, TRY sold off c.5% vs the USD on Friday on the back of general risk-off sentiment and following the start of an investigation by Turkey’s banking regulator into certain banks for stoking the currency’s plunge last year (Bloomberg); TRY has retraced some of its losses this morning

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