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  1. #1271
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 May 2020

    • Asian equities rally on optimism around vaccine trials
    • GBPUSD moves higher following the release of UK employment data
    • UK sets out plan for post-Brexit trade


    Asian equities rallied overnight, following moves higher in European and US markets yesterday on optimism around an early-stage trial of a coronavirus vaccine. The first vaccine to be tested in the US was able to produce protective antibodies in a small group of healthy volunteers. However, experts still predict that a safe and effective vaccine could take 12 - 18 months to develop (Reuters)
    European and US equity index futures tracked broadly flat after US President Trump escalated pressure on the World Health Organisation, calling them ‘a puppet of China’ and demanding ‘major substantive improvements within the next 30 days.’ The escalation could result in his temporary freeze on funding becoming permanent (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, moving from below 1.2100 to above 1.2200 in the afternoon, erasing most of Friday’s losses. Sterling rallied further this morning after the release of employment data, which was slightly better than expected. Although jobless claims for April increased 856k, the unemployment rate for Q1 came out at 3.9% - better than consensus expectations of 4.3% (Bloomberg)
    In Brexit news, the UK set out its tariff plan for global trade when it fully leaves the EU at the end of this year. The Department for International Trade said in a statement that tariffs will be maintained on agricultural products like beef, lamb and poultry, while items like dishwashers and freezers will be able to enter the UK tariff-free as of 1st January 2021. The 10% tariff on cars will be maintained
    Overall, 60% of total trade will reportedly come in tariff-free under the plan, compared to 47% currently
    Today, focus will be on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifying before the Senate Banking Committee. Senators are expected to ask him about actions still needed to keep the US economy afloat (Reuters)

  2. #1272
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 May 2020

    • Asian equities mixed as sceptical press report tempers hopes for COVID-19 vaccine
    • UK CPI slowed to -0.2% m/m in April
    • Today’s focus will be on BOE Governor Bailey and the FOMC Minutes for April


    Asian equities and US and European equity futures are trading without direction, as a sceptical press report tempered hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine and as concerns around the global recovery from the pandemic returned. A report from medical news website STAT cast doubt over the encouraging early results of a vaccine trial, saying they lacked detail (Reuters)
    GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, from below 1.2200 to a high of 1.2296 (Bloomberg) following the slightly better than expected employment report. This morning UK CPI data showed that inflation slowed to -0.2% m/m in April – slightly worse than consensus estimates of -0.1% m/m and last month’s 0.0% reading (Bloomberg)
    Today’s focus will be on Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who speaks to the Treasury Committee at 14:30 BST
    Also today, we receive the US FOMC meeting minutes from April, at 19:00 BST. Communications after the meeting signalled that policy makers were worried about downside risks and their bias was towards more easing. Although the remarks in the minutes will be dated, Barclays Research believe they should show a committee that remained in risk management mode, not ready to change the forward guidance given the highly uncertain outlook
    Elsewhere, NZD rose overnight against USD following comments from central bank Governor Adrian Orr. He suggested any move to bring interest rates below zero remained some way off, stating that ‘it’s got to be seen to be effective, efficient and operationally capable’ Bloomberg)

  3. #1273
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 21 May 2020

    • Asian equities trade lower as Trump escalates rhetoric against China
    • Head of CDC warns a second wave of infections in the US is likely
    • BOE Governor confirms that negative rates are ‘under active review’


    Asian equities traded lower overnight, while US and European stock futures fell as Trump escalated rhetoric against China. He suggested that Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is behind ‘a disinformation and propaganda attack on the United States and Europe’ in tweets yesterday. Global coronavirus cases surpassed 5 million on Wednesday, with Latin America overtaking the US and Europe in the last week to report the largest portion of new daily cases globally (Reuters)
    A large number of new cases came from Brazil, which recently surpassed Germany, France and the UK to record the third-largest outbreak in the world, behind the US and Russia
    The head of the US centre for Disease Control and Prevention warned that COVID-19 is likely to flare up again in the US this autumn and winter, raising the possibility of a second round of lockdowns this year. The warning comes despite repeated efforts from President Trump to convince Americans the worst of the pandemic is over (FT)
    The US Federal Reserve meeting minutes for April were released yesterday, and showed that Fed officials saw the pandemic posing ‘an extraordinary amount of uncertainty’ to both the economy and financial stability. The minutes underscored Chair Powell’s assessment that the Government must do more to mitigate the fallout (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded broadly sideways yesterday, and in a tight range between c.1.2220 and c.1.2290, while moving below 1.2200 this morning. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey confirmed that negative rates were ‘under active review’ while interest rates in a gilts auction fell below zero for the first time. This comes just a week after the BoE Chief said he was ‘not planning or contemplating’ negative rates amid the coronavirus crisis (FT)
    Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Turkey meets today. Barclays Research is in line with consensus, expecting a 50bp cut, leaving the benchmark rate at 8.25%. The meeting takes place at 12:00 today

  4. #1274
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 22 May 2020

    • Asian equities fall amid renewed tensions between China and Hong Kong
    • UK Health Secretary confirms ‘on track’ for 1st June ‘test and trace’ rollout
    • UK posts record budget deficit for April


    Asian equities followed European and US stocks lower overnight, with China’s CSI 300 trading c.2% lower and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng trading c.5% lower. In China, the government abandoned its decades-long practice of setting an annual target for economic growth amid the continued uncertainty. In Hong Kong, concerns over renewed unrest led to the fall in equities, as democracy advocates called for protests against new national security legislation from China (Bloomberg)
    In FX, AUDUSD fell c.0.6% this morning following the resurgence in tensions between China and Hong Kong, while NOK weakened against the Euro, following the fall in oil prices. USDJPY fell c.0.3% after the Bank of Japan left its asset purchase program unchanged at an emergency meeting (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded broadly sideways yesterday, ending the day around 1.2220. Yesterday councils across England said they cannot guarantee that primary schools will reopen on 1st June, the date currently planned by the Government. In the daily press briefing Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed the UK was on track for the ‘test and trace’ system to be rolled out across the country on 1st June, following a trial on the Isle of Wight, where it is reportedly working (Reuters)
    UK Retail Sales data was released this morning, and came out worse than expected. Sales declined -18.1% m/m vs. consensus expectations of a -15.5% decline
    The UK also posted a record budget deficit in April, following the unprecedented economic package to prevent the collapse of the economy. The deficit stood at $62.1bn – equivalent to the total bottoming in the whole of the previous fiscal year (Bloomberg)

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