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  1. #1111
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 09 Sep 2019

    • Asian equities trade higher following hopes of stimulus in China
    • USD falls following worse-than-expected job growth
    • This week, markets will watch the ECB meeting on Thursday



    Asian equities traded higher overnight following increased hopes of economic stimulus in China after the release of Chinese export data on Sunday, which came out much weaker than expected. Headline exports came in at -1.0% YoY vs. consensus of +2.2% YoY. The contraction was led by a significant deterioration in exports to the US, following continued Sino-US trade tensions (Bloomberg)


    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index traded lower on Friday following the release of the US Labour report. Headline job growth came out less than expected at 130k vs. consensus of 160k, driven by a slowdown in services sector employment. However, the three month average payroll growth moved higher to 156k, consistent with a healthy pace of hiring. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%


    Despite the weaker USD, GBPUSD traded lower on Friday amid continued Brexit uncertainty. Foreign Secretary Raab said PM Johnson remains committed to pulling the UK out of the EU by the end of October and may challenge legislation requiring him to ask for a delay if there’s no deal by October 19th. Over the weekend, Amber Rudd quit the cabinet and the party in protest of Johnson’s leadership (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research still see a no-deal exit from the EU as their base case scenario. In the near term, they see risks to the downside for GBP


    This week, markets will watch the ECB meeting on Thursday. Barclays Research expect the central bank to announce a 10bp depo rate cut and restart QE, amid a slowdown in the Eurozone economy and continued Brexit uncertainty


    In EM on Friday, China’s central bank reduced the ratio of reserves that commercial lenders are required to maintain, in an effort to boost the broader economy. Russia’s central bank also cut its benchmark lending rate by 25bp to 7% (FT)

  2. #1112
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 10 Sep 2019

    • Chinese stocks under pressure amid falling factory prices
    • GBPUSD trades higher on better-than-expected GDP data
    • UK Parliament is now suspended for the next 5 weeks



    Asian equities were mixed overnight, with Chinese stocks under pressure after data showed mainland factory prices shrinking at their fastest pace in three years. CPI data was also released, with inflation figures holding at three-year highs, boosted by an increase in pork prices. Barclays Research see CPI inflation remaining elevated in the coming months
    In FX, JPY weakened against the USD to more than one-month highs of 107.50 following positive reports on US-China trade talks, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said both sides made ‘a lot of progress’ on Monday (Bloomberg)


    GBPUSD traded with a bid tone for most of the day yesterday, moving from c.1.2240 to c.1.2380 after better-than-expected UK GDP data. Headline GDP came out at 0.3% m/m vs. expectations of 0.1% m/m, painting the UK economy in a better light than previously anticipated. However, GBP weakened slightly in the afternoon after Speaker Bercow announced he will resign on 31st October 2019 (Bloomberg)
    Yesterday evening Parliament voted against PM Johnson’s bid for a general election on 15th October for the second time, and also voted to force the government to publish its preparations for a no-deal Brexit
    GBP moves may be relatively subdued going forward as Parliament is now suspended for the next 5 weeks, returning on 15th October


    In Commodities, Brent crude rose for a fifth day to its highest level in almost six weeks, on optimism that OPEC and other producing countries may agree to extend output cuts to support prices. Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister said that the global deal to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day would be maintained (Reuters)

  3. #1113
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 11 Sep 2019

    • China removes foreign investment limit in its capital markets
    • Johnson’s Brexit negotiator arrives in Brussels today to begin discussions
    • In commodities, oil fluctuates as President Trump fires security advisor Bolton

    Most Asian equities rallied overnight, whilst Chinese stocks remained under pressure, despite the country removing a foreign investment limit in its capital markets. China also exempted 16 types of US products from additional retaliatory tariffs, including animal feed. The exemption will take effect on 17th September and be valid for a year (Reuters)
    In FX, the Bloomberg USD Spot Index was broadly unchanged yesterday as markets await two key central bank meetings, the ECB and the Fed, tomorrow and next week respectively


    GBPUSD traded broadly sideways yesterday with the UK Parliament suspended for the next 5 weeks. In a meeting with DUP leader Arlene Foster, PM Johnson affirmed his opposition to the Northern Ireland-only backstop and committed to securing a deal that works ‘for the entire United Kingdom.’ Johnson’s Brexit negotiator David Frost arrives in Brussels today to begin discussions around a deal
    Despite the PM insisting that the UK will leave the EU with or without a deal on 31st October, Downing Street said on Tuesday the ‘priority’ now was to avoid a no-deal Brexit (FT)
    In UK data, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.8% vs. consensus expectations of 3.9%


    In the US, President Trump abruptly fired his National Security Advisor, John Bolton, yesterday afternoon. This resulted in oil prices fluctuating as markets predicted a reduced likelihood of conflict with Iran. Brent Crude traded in a wider range, between c.62.2 – c.63.7 during the day (Bloomberg)


    In EM, Korea’s unemployment rate fell sharply in August, dropping to 3.1% from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate since 2013. Job creation also jumped to 452k in August, the highest since March 2017

  4. #1114
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 12 Sep 2019

    • US President Trump postpones tariffs
    • Barclays Research maintains their no-deal assumption
    • 10bp depo rate cut expected at the ECB meeting



    US President Trump has postponed, via a tweet yesterday evening, the introduction of higher tariffs on Chinese goods until 15th October, in what he referred to as a gesture of “goodwill” (FT). The announcement came after China suspended some tariffs on US goods. This has improved investor sentiment regarding the tensions as both sides are set to resume negotiations this week
    Global equities rallied before and after the announcement. The S&P 500 closed 0.72% higher, led by a rally in tech and healthcare. Asian equities broadly rebounded overnight


    In FX, USDCNH fell c.0.4% and USDCNY – permitted to trade 2% either side of a daily fixing – also traded 0.4% lower to below 7.0900. The JPY dropped to a six-week low versus the USD amid signs of easing tensions with USDJPY trading to a high of 108.17 overnight (Bloomberg)


    Barclays Research published a Brexit update overnight. They highlight that the potential for a delayed no-deal outcome is one of the main reasons they continue to maintain their base case. Our Research team expects a no-deal to be the most likely scenario. They see recent developments in Parliament, from the Benn Bill to a potential general election, as just a delay to a no-deal outcome
    GBPUSD traded broadly sideways and our traders continue to see support at 1.2300 ahead of 1.2230 and resistance at 1.2385 ahead of 1.2440


    All eyes are on central bank meetings today. Barclays Research expects the ECB to announce a 10bp depo rate cut with mitigating measures, drop the calendar based component of forward guidance and announce that it will be restarting QE. Elsewhere, there is a rate decision in Turkey at midday, our traders expect the CBT to cut 350bps with the market currently pricing in 300bps

  5. #1115
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 13 Sep 2019

    • Global equities trade higher as Sino-US trade risks ease
    • EURUSD volatile following ECB meeting yesterday
    • Turkey’s central bank cuts rates by 325bp


    Global equities traded higher yesterday and overnight as Sino-US trade risks eased. China renewed purchases of US farm foods, while President Trump delayed a tariff increase on certain Chinese goods by two weeks. Low level US and Chinese officials are expected to meet next week in Washington ahead of talks between senior trade negotiators in early October (Reuters)

    EURUSD had a tumultuous day yesterday following the ECB meeting at 12:45. It traded in a wide range with lows of c.1.0930 and highs of c.1.1070 after the central bank cut its deposit rate by 10bp from -0.4% to -0.5%, the first cut since March 2016, and announced that it would restart its QE programme, buying €20bn of bonds every month from November (FT)
    President Draghi said the eurozone faced ‘more protracted weakness’ than previously thought, resulting mainly from the global trade slowdown
    The ECB cut its forecast for eurozone growth by 10bp in 2019 to 1.1% and by 20bp in 2020 to 1.2%. It also lowered its forecast for inflation by 10bp for this year and 40bp for next year

    In EM, Turkey’s central bank also cut policy rates, by 325bp from 19.75% to 16.50%. The MPC statement afterwards was broadly similar to that from the July meeting, highlighting that despite weakness in investment demand, leading indicators point to a partial improvement in the sectoral diffusion of economic activity
    USDTRY sold off after the rate announcement, from c.5.76 to c.5.66, before stabilising around 5.6630 (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research continue to expect the one-week repo rate to be cut to 15% by year-end and adjust their forecast to a 150bp cut for the October MPC meeting, from 175bp previously

  6. #1116
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 16 Sep 2019

    • Stocks in the red after attacks on two Saudi Arabia oil plants
    • Brent crude oil trades stronger
    • 25bp rate cut expected at the FOMC meeting this week



    Most global stock markets traded lower after an attack on two Saudi Arabia oil plants, weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data, and amid thinner liquidity with a public holiday in Japan. Oil prices surged with an intraday move of c.19.00% in Brent Crude, touching a four-months high of $71.95 per barrel after the attacks on the world’s third largest oil producer
    The oil price retraced part of its gains and is now trading around $60.00 per barrel, after President Trump allowed the use of the US emergency stockpile (Bloomberg)


    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded lower and touched 1204.29 on Friday, the lowest level since mid August, as US-China trade talks struck a constructive tone. Overnight, JPY rallied amid worries around escalation of Middle East tensions. Commodity currencies such as NOK and CAD also traded stronger following the higher oil price


    GBPUSD traded c.1.3% higher on Friday, rising to its highest level since late July of c.1.2500, on the back of news reports providing fresh impetus to hopes that a disorderly ‘no-deal’ Brexit will be avoided on 31-October and because of broad based USD weakness (Bloomberg). PM Johnson is to hold talks with EC President Juncker and EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier in Luxembourg today
    The Liberal Democrats have formally taken a tougher anti-Brexit stance during a party conference on Sunday where they voted to take on a policy to revoke article 50 which would then stop Brexit (Reuters)


    This week, markets will watch the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. With the market already pricing in a full 25bps cut, Barclays Research expects the dot plot and Fed chair Powell’s press conference to drive the price action after the meeting
    On Thursday we also have the Bank of England meeting, Barclays Research don’t expect this to move GBP as political uncertainty is still the market’s focus

  7. #1117
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 17 Sep 2019

    • Asian stocks in the red after PBOC decision
    • GBPUSD retraces some of Friday’s gains
    • RBA minutes push AUDUSD lower


    Asian equities traded lower after the PBOC disappointed the market by not cutting rates on its medium-term lending facility. Investor concerns about geopolitical risks remained heightened and kept US Treasuries supported. Oil retraced c.4% of its large gains; the surge yesterday was the biggest one-day gain since December 2008 (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research doesn’t think “the jump in oil prices will materially change EM Asia’s central banks’ reaction functions, given that concerns of a growth slowdown still outweigh inflation risks”
    In FX, EUR dipped below 1.1000 yesterday, after touching 1.1085 earlier in the day. The commodity currencies such as CAD and NOK were the best performers among G10 yesterday. CAD traded c.0.3% higher and NOK c.0.5% stronger versus the USD prompted by the move in Brent prices (Bloomberg)
    Yesterday, after touching 1.2503, GBPUSD traded down to 1.2399 and stabilized around 1.2420 as headlines around PM Johnson’s meeting with EC President Juncker and EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier in Luxembourg suggested there is still little Brexit breakthrough. Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel called Brexit a “nightmare” at a press conference that PM Johnson did not attend (Bloomberg)
    Today marks the first of a three day hearing in the UK Supreme court regarding the prorogation of the Parliament
    The RBA minutes had a dovish tilt overnight, with the central bank reaffirming it is prepared to cut interest rates further. AUDUSD traded lower and Barclays Research still expects two further 25 bps cuts this year, one in October and another in November

  8. #1118
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 18 Sep 2019

    • Markets turn their attention to the Fed meeting tonight
    • GBPUSD gains during first day of UK Supreme Court hearing
    • The US repo market moved up to 10% yesterday


    Asian stocks traded slightly lower overnight as the market turned its focus on to the Fed meeting this evening. Barclays Research expects a 25bp rate cut in line with consensus and predicts “the summary of economic projections, especially the dot plot, and Chair Powell’s press conference will likely drive price action“
    The Fed will publish its rate decision at 19:00 BST followed by a press conference by Fed chair Powell at 19:30 BST
    Yesterday interest rates on some overnight loans in the US money market moved to 10%, diverging from the Fed interest rate target of 2.00—2.25%. The New York Fed conducted an emergency injection for the first time in 10 years yesterday of $50bn. They will conduct another one today of a maximum of $75bn
    In FX, AUDUSD initially traded lower after the release of slightly more dovish RBA minutes yesterday. The pair briefly touched 0.6831 before retracing most of this move on broad based USD weakness. Overnight AUD and NZD fell on overall risk sentiment ahead of the Fed meeting tonight
    SEK traded lower versus its peers yesterday as Swedish unemployment data came in worse than expected and the minutes from the Riksbank meeting, earlier in the month, showed that the bank is concerned around the risk of a more rapid economic slowdown (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD traded c.0.6% stronger during the first of a three day hearing in the Supreme Court. The judges are scrutinizing PM Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament. Yesterday the judges asked PM Johnson’s attorney for a written statement from the PM outlining what the Government’s plan is, should they rule against his decision to suspend parliament (Bloomberg)
    World oil prices are continuing to grind lower with Brent crude currently trading c.6.2% below yesterday’s open as Saudi Arabia has restored around half of their production and expect it be fully restored by month end

  9. #1119
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 19 Sep 2019

    • Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp but conveyed a less dovish message
    • AUDUSD trading lower on weaker employment print
    • Today is the last day of the UK Supreme Court hearing


    Asian stocks traded mixed overnight after the Fed announced a 25bp interest rate cut last night, in line with market expectations, but the tone from the Fed was not as dovish as expected. Three member dissented and voted against the cut, but the overall statement was broadly in line with Barclays Research expectations
    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped c.0.35% and touched 1211 yesterday following the announcement. The front end of the US treasury curve rose, pushing the yield curve flatter (Bloomberg)
    The Fed also lowered the rate on excess-reserve to 1.8% and promised another injection into the US money market in an attempt to calm the money market. Fed Chair Powell said there might be a need “to resume organic growth of the balance sheet”
    In FX, AUDUSD traded to a 2-week low of 0.6790 after Australia’s unemployment rate came in at 5.3%, slightly higher than expectations and the previous number, increasing expectations of an interest rate cut by the RBA
    JPY traded higher after the Bank of Japan announced they were staying on hold and said they will review again in October. CNY traded lower as the PBOC decided to keep reverse-repo rates steady (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD weakened yesterday morning following softer than expected UK CPI, which came in at 1.7% YoY vs. 1.9%. Today is the final day of the Supreme Court hearing however we don’t have a date for the ruling yet
    Yesterday PM Johnson’s attorney said that a statement would come out overnight entailing what the government will do if the court rules against the decision to suspend the parliament. The court has said that a delay would be “entirely inconvenient”
    Today we have the Bank of England meeting, Barclays Research don’t expect this to move GBP as political uncertainty is still the market’s focus. Barclays Research thinks “ the BoE is likely to reiterate its out-of-sync message of policies consistent with a smooth Brexit”
    Bank of England Governor Carney is set to step down in January 2020 however there have been headlines that the appointment of his successor will be pushed should we have a general election. His term has been extended previously in order to keep a stable BoE leadership (FT)

  10. #1120
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 20 Sep 2019

    • GBPUSD higher after positive comments from EU President Juncker
    • US-China trade talks resumed yesterday and are set to continue today
    • Oil price ticks higher as worries around Saudi Arabia oil supply lingers


    Asian stocks traded higher overnight as the prospect of further monetary easing globally bolstered investor sentiment. Another positive sign for risk sentiment came as the trade talks between US-China resumed yesterday, ahead of further potential high-level talks in early October. The White House economic adviser Kudlow sees a “little softening” in the mood (Bloomberg)
    Oil prices moved higher yesterday on concerns that last weekend’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities still pose supply risks (Reuters)
    GBPUSD saw a spike yesterday evening following headlines stating that EU President Juncker is ready to get rid of the backstop in the withdrawal agreement, saying “If the objectives are met – all of them – then we don’t need the backstop”. GBPUSD continued to trade higher overnight and is now trading around 1.2570 (Bloomberg)
    As expected the Bank of England choose to keep interest rates unchanged at their meeting yesterday, which was uneventful with little market impact. The central bank citied Brexit related downside risks, as increased uncertainty could weaken inflation
    The Supreme Court is set to rule early next week on whether PM Johnson acted according to the law when he suspended Parliament
    In FX, EURCHF sold-off c.0.3% yesterday as the SNB surprised the market and held their policy rate unchanged at -0.75% instead of following the ECBs move last week
    EURNOK dipped briefly, touching 9.8210, yesterday as the Norges Bank hiked interest rates by 25bp for the third time this year and against market consensus. NOK quickly retraced as the central bank signalled that rates are likely to stay at these levels despite keeping a small hiking bias (Bloomberg)
    There are signs that the funding stresses the US money market experienced earlier this week, when overnight rates surged to 10%, are rebuilding. Despite three emergency injections of $203.2bn in total by the New York Fed this week and another $75bn planned for today. This puts pressure on the Fed to come with a more permanent solution (Bloomberg)

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