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  1. #1121
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 23 Sep 2019

    • Asian equities mixed amid US-China trade developments
    • Barclays Research expects a hard Brexit by end of January
    • Brent rallies 1% following Aramco report


    Asian equities started the week off mixed as investors analysed the latest developments in US-China trade negotiations. On Saturday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said representatives on both sides had held “constructive” talks on trade in Washington. The US trade representative described negotiations as “productive”. High-level trade talks are set to resume early October (FT)
    JPY traded lower versus all its G10 peers. USDCNH, having reached a two week high of 7.1312 on Friday, fell c.0.2% amid the trade discussions. JPY moves can be partly attributed to thinner liquidity as a result of the Japanese holiday today (Bloomberg)
    Boris Johnson has said he is “cautiously optimistic” he can strike a Brexit deal. He is set to meet German chancellor Merkel, French President Macron and European Council President Tusk at a climate summit in New York today (FT)
    Barclays Research now expects “a hard Brexit by the end of January, given passage of a bill forcing the government to seek an extension unless parliament has agreed to a withdrawal agreement or given consent to a no-deal”. They think GBP will stay relatively supported on hopes of a deal in the short term
    Our Research team have also changed their Fed call and now expect them to cut rates in December and January, rather than October and December
    In Commodities, Brent rallied c.1% following a report that repairs to the Saudi Arabia Aramco facility, which was damaged in a recent drone attack, could take a couple of months to complete. This contradicts the maximum 10-weeks its executives promised (Bloomberg)

  2. #1122
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 24 SEP 2019

    • European equities lower following disappointing PMIs
    • Barclays Research updates their FX forecasts
    • Vice Premier Liu He to visit Washington in the week of 7th October



    European equities sold-off yesterday following a weaker-than-expected batch of Eurozone data. The Composite PMI fell to a six-year low of 50.4 in September, below consensus and down from 51.9 in August. These results signal the Eurozone economy is close to stalling and focus is now on the Germany IFO data released at 09:00 BST this morning (FT)
    GBPUSD traded marginally lower on the day, having touched a high of 1.2491 in the morning before closing below 1.2440. Investors will be closely watching the UK Supreme Court decision today at 10:30 BST. The Court will rule on whether PM Johnson acted lawfully when suspending parliament. In the meantime, Johnson continues to push for a deal, and has appealed to the EU to meet him halfway
    Barclays Research released new forecasts out to Q3 2020. A no-deal Brexit continues to be the base case scenario but now assume this will take place in the first quarter of 2020 following a short extension and election. They expect a sharp depreciation in GBP to accompany the initial stages of a no-deal Brexit and now forecast GBPUSD at a low of 1.10 and EURGBP having a high of 0.97 in Q1 20 (GBPEUR 1.03)
    Our Research team also highlight “once the initial uncertainty created by short-term dislocations clears, we believe the nearly 50-year low in the real effective value of GBP should attract significant long-term buyers”. This could lead to a partial rebound in GBP vs. EUR, taking EURGBP back to 0.92 by end-2020 (GBPEUR 1.0870)
    US-China trade tensions remained front and centre. US Treasury secretary Mnuchin said Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington in the week of 7th October. Elsewhere in the US, factory activity hit a five-month high in September amid gains in output and new orders, rebounding from August’s contraction

  3. #1123
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 25 Sep 2019

    • Global equities in the red over impeachment proceedings
    • UK Supreme Court rules PM Johnson unlawful
    • RBNZ keeps the OCR at 1.00% | RBA Governor dovish


    US equities sold-off yesterday as investors digested announcements related to a possible impeachment inquiry against Trump. Overnight, Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi formally initiated impeachment proceedings, accusing the president of betraying his oath of office and national security (FT). Asian equities followed their US counterparts and traded lower
    The Democratic House is reportedly looking at allegations President Trump urged Ukraine’s leader to investigate former Vice-President Joe Biden. Trump said he will release the transcript of his call with Volodymyr Zelensky today
    The UK Supreme Court ruled yesterday that PM Johnson acted unlawfully when suspending parliament, voiding the prorogation and allowing lawmakers to return to the House of Commons. GBPUSD rallied on the day, to a high of 1.2503 (Bloomberg)
    PM Johnson said he remains “cautiously optimistic” about a Brexit deal, but MPs return to Westminster today and focus is on the PM’s expected commons statement at 11:30 BST
    Elsewhere, the RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate at 1.00% in the early hours of this morning, as widely expected. The statement however appeared less dovish than expected, introducing a conditional bias to ease further if the economy needs more support. Barclays Research continue “to forecast a cut in November, considering declining world interest rates and the uncertain global outlook”
    NZDUSD initially spiked c.0.7% to a high of 0.6349 after the decision, before erasing most gains into London’s morning (Bloomberg)
    RBA Governor Lowe delivered a broadly dovish message in a widely anticipated speech to the Armidale Business Chamber yesterday, but was still modestly optimistic about the economy reaching a “gentle turning point”. While the message around a further rate cut was not definite nor imminent, Barclays Research still expect a rate cut at the October meeting

  4. #1124
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 26 Sep 2019

    • US and Asian equities higher after US trade developments
    • GBPUSD sells off amid Brexit uncertainty and positioning
    • Barclays Research updates their UK inflation forecasts


    US and Asian equities were broadly higher after Trump said yesterday a trade deal with China “could happen sooner than you think”. President Trump also signed a partial trade deal with the Japanese Prime Minister Abe, easing commercial tensions between the two countries. The deal includes agricultural concessions from Tokyo in exchange for a reduction in some US industrial tariffs (FT)
    However, it was reported by Bloomberg that the WTO will authorise the US to impose tariffs on nearly $8bn of European goods in the wake of illegal state aid provided to Airbus
    GBPUSD sold-off c.1% yesterday, trading from a high of 1.2499 to a low of 1.2348 on the day (Bloomberg). Whilst part of this move can be attributed to Brexit-related uncertainty after the Supreme Court overruled PM Johnson’s attempt to suspend Parliament, the moves came amid month-end and quarter-end positioning, and broad-based USD strength
    Barclays Research updated their UK inflation forecast for 2019 and 2020 to take account of a later no-deal Brexit baseline, the latest oil price move and details in the August data print. Our team’s forecast for 2019 CPI is 2.0% y/y and for 2020 is 2.6% y/y. The headline CPI figure for 2020 was adjusted upward to 2.8% (from 2.7% previously)
    After tracking lower yesterday, NZDUSD rallied c.0.5% overnight as investors covered their short positions after the RBNZ Governor Orr said he is pleased with the outcome of the August rate cut. Orr also downplayed the need for unconventional monetary policy (Bloomberg)

  5. #1125
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 27 Sep 2019

    • Increased political uncertainty in the US after whistleblower complaint
    • Quarter-end flows pushing the USD higher
    • NZD traded choppy overnight


    Asian stocks were mixed overnight, with gains in technology stocks pushing the Hang Seng index higher while China’s CSI 300 and the Nikkei index traded lower after weaker inflation data from Japan. Tokyo CPI printed at 0.4% y/y versus consensus at 0.5% y/y
    Brent Crude fell c.0.85% overnight and is now trading around 62.20 after news that Saudi Arabia’s oil plants are recovering quicker than expected after the attacks earlier this month (Bloomberg)
    US Stocks traded lower yesterday amid increased political uncertainty in the US as the whistleblower complaints were released. The whistleblower claims that the White House has been hiding transcripts of a call between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart. This complaint is fueling the impeachment inquiry and, speaker of the house Pelosi said the White House engaged in a “cover up” (FT)
    In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded 0.18% higher yesterday amid quarter end flows and reached a three-week high of 1217, up 0.6% overall this week. NZDUSD was volatile overnight as New Zealand consumer confidence fell, adding to speculation that the currency might need support, despite the RBNZ hinting that interest-rate cuts are working
    GBPUSD sold off yesterday morning, briefly touching 1.2303 before retracing some losses in the afternoon, helped by month and quarter end flows as we await further political developments (Bloomberg)
    This weekend conservatives will meet in Manchester for the Tory party conference, despite MPs rejecting the Government’s request for a three day parliamentary recess for the event (FT)

  6. #1126
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 30 Sep 2019

    • Global equities stutter last week amid increased Sino-US trade tensions
    • GBPUSD under pressure as Brexit uncertainty continues
    • This week, markets will watch data releases from the US


    Global equities traded broadly lower last week amid increased Sino-US trade tensions. On Friday, risk assets came under pressure following reports the Trump administration was considering new financial pressures on Beijing, including the possibility of delisting Chinese companies from US stock exchanges (Reuters)
    However these comments were rebuffed by a Treasury official, who said the US has no plans ‘at this time’ to stop Chinese companies from listing on American exchanges (Bloomberg)
    Chinese PMIs were released overnight, and showed a surprise expansion in factory activity. The Caixin Index rose to 51.4 for September, from 50.4 in August, while market consensus was a dip to 50.2
    GBPUSD came under pressure last week following continued Brexit uncertainty and persistent USD strength, trading from highs of around 1.2500 to lows of 1.2271 (Bloomberg). The Conservative Party Conference started yesterday and runs through to Wednesday, when PM Johnson will deliver a speech which may create some headline noise
    The conference went ahead despite MPs rejecting the government’s request for a three-day parliamentary recess during the gathering, raising the prospect of opposition MPs ambushing the government by trying to push through legislation in the Commons (FT)
    Elsewhere, New Zealand Business Confidence fell to its lowest in more than a decade, to -53.5. Following the release NZDUSD sold off 0.7% to 0.6250, testing new 4-year lows (Bloomberg)
    This week, markets will watch the release of various data from the US, looking for further signs that the US economy is solid and continues to diverge from the rest of the world. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing on Tuesday and Thursday respectively will be key, as will the US labour report on Friday where Barclays Research are above consensus (expecting 145k vs. 140k consensus)

  7. #1127
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 01 Oct 2019

    • Asian stocks trade higher amid an easing in US-China trade tensions
    • PM Johnson will submit formal Brexit proposals to the EU within 24 hours
    • RBA cuts rates by 25bp as expected overnight


    Asian stocks rose on Tuesday following gains in the US amid an easing in US-China trade tensions. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said on Monday reports of plans to stop Chinese companies from listing shares in the US were inaccurate (Reuters)
    In Brexit news, it was reported overnight that PM Johnson will submit formal proposals for a Brexit deal to EU leaders within the next 24 hours. The plan will look to remove the controversial Irish Backstop and instead envisage that agriculture and food be part of a single ‘all-Ireland’ regulatory space, reducing the need for checks at the border (FT)
    However, EU chief negotiator Barnier has repeatedly told diplomats that ‘a substantial shift in the UK position is required to have productive talks.’ He also reportedly told Brexit secretary Barclay the EU had serious doubts that Johnson could get any deal through the Commons (FT)
    Focus will be on PM Johnson’s closing speech to the Conservative party conference in Manchester tomorrow, where further details on the Brexit proposals are expected
    GBPUSD traded higher during the day yesterday, from c.1.2290 to a high of 1.2346 (Bloomberg) before reversing all gains. Yesterday, UK data came out slightly better-than-expected, with YoY GDP revised higher at 1.3% vs. consensus expectations of 1.2%. Today we receive Manufacturing PMI data at 09:30 BST, where Barclays Research are expecting a further contraction
    Elsewhere, the RBA cut rates overnight to 0.75% from 1.00% as widely expected. However, they added a paragraph to the end of the statement discussing forces leading to lower interest rates globally, and confirming their bias was towards lower interest rates for a longer period of time in order to facilitate full employment
    AUDUSD initially moved higher following the cut, but erased all gains and sold off shortly after

  8. #1128
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 02 Oct 2019

    • US manufacturing activity falls to more than a decade low
    • Reports that North Korea launched another ballistic missile raises tensions
    • Markets will closely watch PM Johnson’s speech at the Tory Party conference today


    US and Asian equities traded lower yesterday after US manufacturing activity fell to more than a decade low, increasing concerns that the fallout from the US-China trade war is spreading to the US economy. ISM Manufacturing came out at 47.8 vs. 50.0 consensus, led by weakness in new export orders (Bloomberg)
    Barclays Research see a number of interrelated influences, including soft global demand, the strong dollar and uncertainty regarding trade policy and the global outlook
    In FX, the USD initially rose in the London morning, but sold off vs. other G10 currencies after the data print, erasing all gains
    GBPUSD had a fairly volatile day, trading from around 1.2295 to a low of 1.2207 (Bloomberg) before spiking up to 1.2339 following headlines that the EU were ready to consider a time-limited Irish Backstop. Today, all eyes will be on Boris Johnson as he makes a speech to the Conservative party conference around midday, outlining his ‘final offer’ to Brussels to end the Brexit deadlock (FT)
    PM Johnson’s allies claim that the proposal, which is to be sent to Brussels on Wednesday afternoon, has ‘evolved significantly’ in the last 24 hours and if the EU rejects it, the UK will break off talks and start preparing for a no-deal (FT)
    Elsewhere, North Korea tensions increased following reports that another ballistic missile had been launched, only days after news that they and the US were to resume nuclear talks this week (Bloomberg)

  9. #1129
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 03 Oct 2019

    • Global equities sold off following worse data prints and tariff announcements
    • PM Johnson released Brexit plan yesterday
    • Today, markets will watch non-manufacturing data releases


    Global equities sold off yesterday and overnight, with the S&P 500 down c.1.8%, the FTSE 100 down c.3.2% and the Nikkei down more than 2%. There were a few catalysts; a bout of poor manufacturing data from the EU and US, the US announcement of new tariffs on $7.5bn of goods from the EU, and continued Brexit uncertainty
    On the tariff announcement, it was reported that the US will enact 10% tariffs on Airbus planes and 25% duties on French wine, Scotch and Irish whiskies and cheese from across the continent, reportedly in response to illegal EU aircraft subsidies (Reuters)
    While the WTO authorised the US to put 100% levies on the $7.5bn of goods, Washington limited the amount of levies being put on (FT)
    The tariffs will come into effect from 18th October 2019, and the EU has said it will respond ‘firmly’ if the US acts (Bloomberg)
    GBPUSD came under pressure yesterday morning before recovering later in the day as PM Johnson released his Brexit plan following the keynote speech at the Tory party conference. The proposals look to replace the Irish backstop with the creation of two new borders; a customs frontier in Ireland and a new regulatory frontier between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This would see Northern Ireland adopt EU regulations for goods, agriculture and food, provided the Northern Ireland assembly gives its consent every four years (FT)
    The Democratic Unionist Party signalled it could accept the new system, and Steve Baker, the head of the European Research Group, said he would support the new deal if the DUP followed suit
    PM Johnson said that no physical infrastructure would be needed at the borders. However, the EU reportedly fears the Northern Ireland border would badly disrupt the local economy and doesn’t fully address the need for customs controls (FT)
    Today markets will watch the myriad of non-manufacturing based data out of the EU, UK and US for further insight into the global economy. In the US, ISM non-manufacturing will be particularly important given the contraction in manufacturing earlier in the week – Barclays Research expects a lower figure than the prior month, but still predicts it remaining in expansionary territory


  10. #1130
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    Market Review - Fundamental Perspective - 04 Oct 2019

    • Asian stocks mixed overnight, ahead of US jobs report today
    • Sterling volatile amid conflicting Brexit headlines
    • Reserve Bank of India cuts rates by 25bp to 5.15% as expected


    Asian stocks traded mixed overnight as markets look to the US Labour report today that could determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates further. Weak data out of the US this week, including worse than expected manufacturing and services prints have deepened fears the Sino-US trade war is starting to hurt the US economy – so the jobs report today will be key for markets (Reuters)
    Barclays Research is expecting jobs to increase by 145k vs. consensus expectations of 148k. However they expect the unemployment rate to move lower by 0.1%, whereas the consensus is for no change. The report is released at 13:30 BST
    GBPUSD rallied yesterday from around 1.2270 to above 1.2400 before receding slightly in the evening amid mixed headlines around PM Johnson’s proposed Brexit deal. The EU and Ireland said on Thursday that the proposals were unlikely to yield a deal, with Dublin warning that Britain was heading towards a no-deal exit unless it made more concessions (Reuters)
    EC President Tusk told the Prime Minister the EU was ‘open but still unconvinced’ whilst Irish Taoiseach Varadkar said his government could not understand how the customs plans could avoid the return of border infrastructure on the island (FT)
    There were also reports that Johnson has a plan B for Brexit that would entail keeping the Irish backstop as long as the EU agrees to put a time limit on it. However, the EU has long rejected such a condition, despite some discussion around the idea in recent days (Bloomberg)
    Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of India cut rates by 25bp overnight to 5.15% as expected, and signalled scope for further monetary easing. This follows four previous cuts this year as the central bank moves to revive economic growth
    INR strengthened against the USD yesterday ahead of the decision and after the announcement, moving from highs of c.71.34 down to c.70.80 (Bloomberg)

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