Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 25-29


During last week, several leading commodities prices including gold and silver declined. Their recent tumble coincided with the recovery of the US dollar against leading currencies such as Aussie dollar, Japanese yen and Canadian dollar. In the upcoming week several reports and speeches may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: U.S housing starts, BOJ minutes of last meeting, GB’s GDP for the third quarter, U.S pending home sales, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, German retail sales, U.S consumer confidence, Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey, Canada’s GDP by industry, BOE Governor Carney Speaks and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of November 25^th to November 29^th referring to the U.S, Japan, Euro Area, China, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):
Monday, November 25^th
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during October; in the last update, the pending home sales index tumbled again by 5.6% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the slowdown in the U.S housing market; if the housing data shows additional decline in the index, it may drag down the U.S dollar;
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan left this month its monetary policy without any changes. The minutes may offer some insight referring to the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;

Tuesday, November 26^th
10:00 – Great Britain Inflation report hearing: In these hearings BOE Governor is expected to testify and refer to the British inflation and the bank’s economic outlook in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for September 2013; this report was historically linked withgold price – as housing starts increased, gold prices tended to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the recent monthly report, in August 2013, the adjusted annual rate reached 891,000, which was 0.9% above the previous month’s housing starts pace;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the recent update, during August, building permits fell by 3.8% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 918,000. If building permits continue to fall, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is cooling down (the recent U.S building permits update);
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last monthly report, for October, the consumer confidence index plummeted to 71.2 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the November index may further decline; this report might weaken the USD;

Wednesday, November 27^th
09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey projects Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for November. In the latest report for October 2013, the climate index slightly fell to 7;
09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q3 2013: This report will present the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the third quarter of 2013; during the second quarter the GB economy grew by 0.7% (Q-2-Q); in the early estimate, the second quarter GDP expanded by 0.7%; if the growth rate remains unchanged or very close to the first estimate, it could have little effect on the GB pound;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 24^th; in the previous report the jobless claims decreased by 21k to reach 323k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding October may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of September 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $234.3 billion; if this report shows another gain in new orders, then it could rally not only the USD but also commodities;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 24^th; the report will also show the changes in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 24^th;

Thursday, November 28^th
All day – Germany’s CPI (preliminary report):Germany’s CPI is among the factors that affects the ECB’s rate decision. Last month’s report showed a decline in the CPI by 0.2%. If this trends continues, it could indicate the German economy isn’t heating up;
08:55 – German Unemployment Rate: Last month the unemployment slightly rose by 2k; the developments in the German workforce could affect the Euro/USD currency pair;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of October 2013. In the latest September report, the annual growth rate for M3 slipped to 2.1%; M1 fell to 6.6%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -1.4%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to contract and the growth rate of M1 and M3 declines. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect future ECB rate decisions;
10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will give a speech in a press regarding the Financial Stability Report, in London;
13:30 – Canada’s Current Account: This update presents the changes in the gap between imported and exported goods and services, investment income, and current transfers during the last quarter. In the previous update, the deficit in the current account reached 14.6 billion Canadian dollar – a rise in deficit from the preceding quarter;

Friday, November 29^th
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sale: This monthly update provides an estimate for Germany’s retail sales in the past month. In the past report, retail sales slipped by 0.4% – lower than expected. If retail sales continue to fall, it could indicate Germany’s economy isn’t progressing, which could pressure down the Euro;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report projects the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for September 2013. In the last update regarding August 2013, the real gross domestic product slightly rose by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of October, the Manufacturing PMI slightly rose for fifth consecutive month to 51.4 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a slightly faster rate; in the last flash PMI report (by HSBC), the index fell to 50.4. If in the upcoming report the PMI start to fall, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for December 16-20


The financial markets remain poised for the upcoming FOMC meeting, in which it will be decided whether the FOMC would announce of tapering QE3. The current expectations from analysts are that the Fed is likely to do so and start cutting down on its pace of asset purchase program. Besides the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, several reports, decisions and speeches will take place this week including: Bernanke’s speech, minutes of the FOMC meeting, U.S CPI, German Ifo business climate, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s trade balance, BOE governor Carney speaks, U.S GDP for the third quarter, RBA’s governor’s speech, RBA’s minutes of monetary policy meeting, GB climate count, Euro group summits, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI reports, Philly fed index, Canada’s retail sales, ECB President’s speech, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of December 16^th to December 20^th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, December 16^th

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for December. Last month’s report regarding November 2013 the Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.4 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is growing but at a slightly slower rate. If in the upcoming update the PMI index continues to fall, it could signal the progress in China’s economy is slowing down. This may also affect commodities prices;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly report regarding November 2013, the Germany’s PMI rose to 52.5 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing at a slightly faster pace. France’s PMI fell to 47.8. This report serves signals to the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
14:00 – Draghi’s Testimony: ECB President will testify on monetary policy before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the changes the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for October 2013. In the recent report regarding September 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $25.5 billion;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly changes in the industrial production as of November; as of October, the production slipped by 0.1%; this report may affect the USD currency;


Tuesday, December 17^th

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%; the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its recent decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities rates;
09:30 – GB CPI (November 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding October 2013, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 2.2%; if the inflation rate continues its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for November. In October, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 54.6 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to rise, the Euro will plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;
10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the recent report, the annual CPI declined to 0.7%, which is well below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation continues to decline, it could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may refer to the latest developments in Europe;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (October 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of October. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding September 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 0.6%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refers to the main changes in the core consumer price index for November 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during October, the CPI inched down by 0.1% (month-over-month); the core CPI inched up again by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
15:30 –BOE Governor Carney Testifies: Governor Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London;
21:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in October 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit slightly contracted to 1,071 billion yen (roughly $10.4 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s changes in demand for goods and services;

Wednesday, December 18^th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the developments (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of December. In the last report regarding November 2013, the business climate index rose to 109.3 in October;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of previous month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 41.7k; the rate of unemployment inched down to 7.6%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank kept the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for October 2013; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold tends to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report the housing starts data weren’t released;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during October, building permits rose by 6.2% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1.034,000. If building permits continue to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is reheating (the recent U.S building permits update);
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 14^th;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The highly anticipated final FOMC meeting for this year will take place during December 17^th and 18^th. The FOMC will decide whether it will start tapering QE3. Many analysts expect the FOMC will announce the tapering of its long term treasury bonds purchase program by $15 billion a month. In such an event, the total asset purchase program, in this case, would remain at $70 billion a month. Considering the little effect the treasury bonds purchase program has had on the economy and the slow progress of the labor market, the FOMC might decide to take different measures to stimulate the economy, such as raising the inflation target, increasing the mortgage backed securities purchase program, or pegging the long term interest rates (10 years) at 2.5%. If the Fed reduces QE3, it is might pull up USD and drag down (for a short period) gold and silver prices. If the Fed won’t introduce any changes to its monetary policy, gold and silver prices might bounce back. In any case, the FOMC’s statement, outlook and press conference that follow are likely to move the forex, stocks and commodities markets;


Thursday, December 19^th

09:00 – Euro Area Current Account: In the previous report, the gap in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers shrunk to 13.7 billion Euros. This report could also indicate the recent developments in the progress of the EU economy;
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: In the last month, retail sales in Great Britain fell by 0.7%; this report could affect the British pound;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 14^th; in the recent report the jobless claims sharply rose by 68k to reach 368k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during November 2013; in the last report regarding October 2013 the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding November, the growth rate fell from +19.8 in October to +6.5 in November. If the index continues to fall, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 14^th;


Friday, December 20^th

09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. Based on the latest update, the deficit contracted to 13 billion pounds. This report might affect the direction of the British Pound;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: In the previous report, manufacturing sales rose by 0.2%;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (October 2013): This report will refer to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of October. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding September 2013, manufacturing sales remained unchanged;
13:30 – Final U.S GDP 3Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP rose by 3.6% in the third quarter of 2013. If the growth rate were to be revised up again, this might positively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
Tentative – Japan’s monetary policy meeting and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for December 23-27


During last week, the markets moved in high gear as the anticipated FOMC meeting concluded with a mini-tapering of $10 billion so that next month’s QE3 will only be of $75 billion LTS and MBS. Moreover, the FOMC also assured the markets that it will maintain the low interest rates until the end of 2015. This news had some adverse effect on gold and silver. The US dollar also reacted and rallied against leading currencies including Euro and Aussie dollar. This week, however, the Christmas holiday is likely to keep the volume of trade very low; this in turn, could result in high volatility or very low volatility in the financial markets especially in commodities. In the upcoming week several reports may affect the markets; these include: U.S new home sales, BOJ minutes of last meeting, U.S durable goods, Canada’s GDP, U.S jobless claims, U.S consumer confidence, and EIA oil and natural gas weekly reports. Here is a breakdown for the week of December 23^rd to December 27^th referring to the U.S, Japan, and Canada.

(All times GMT):

Monday, December 23^rd
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for October 2013. In the last update regarding September 2013, the real gross domestic product inched up by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
13:30 – U.S Personal spending: This monthly report will refer to the changes in income and outlays in the U.S during November; in the last report regarding October the personal income slightly rose by 0.3%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised):University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 75.1;


Tuesday, December 24^th
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding November may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of October 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods fell to $486.9 billion; if this report shows another drop in new orders, then it could drag down not only the USD but also commodities;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to November 2013; in the last report (opens pdf; for October), the sales of new homes sharply rose to an annual rate of 444,000 – a 25.4% rise (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep increasing, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is reheating; this news may also affect theUS dollar;



Wednesday, December 25^th
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan kept this month its monetary policy unchanged. The minutes may offer some insight regarding the bank’s future plans; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;


Thursday, December 26^th
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 22^nd; in the previous report the jobless claims increased by 10k to reach 379k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;


Friday, December 27^th
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 22^nd; the report will also show the changes in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 22^nd;

Good Luck

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for January 13-17


The financial markets heated up as most stocks markets and commodities rallied during last week. The lower than expected number of jobs added in the U.S during December, according to latest NF payroll report, didn’t stop commodities and stocks to rise on Friday. This week several reports, decisions and speeches will take place including: Bernanke’s speech, U.S housing starts, Japan’s current account, GB CPI, EU industrial production, Australia’s employment report, U.S CPI and PPI, BOC Business Outlook Survey, U.S federal budget, China new loans, U.S Philly fed index, German CPI, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of January 13^th to January 17^th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, January 13^th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will refer to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the previous update, the total loans fell for the first time in three months; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;
15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic outlook. This report could also reflect the potential changes in BOC’s monetary policy;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to December 2013; this report shows the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the previous report regarding November the deficit rose by $135 billion; if the deficit continues to widen, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;
00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the shifts in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;


Tuesday, January 14^th

09:30 – GB CPI (December 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding November 2013, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 2.1%; if the inflation rate continues its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of December; as of November, the production fell by 1.1%; this report may affect the Euro currency;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to December; in the last report regarding November, retail sales slightly rose by 0.7% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.4%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could suggest the developments in demand for gasoline;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to December 2013. In the last report regarding November, this index for finished goods slightly fell by 0.1% compared with November’s level; the core PPI inched up by 0.1%; this news might affect the USD;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding November 2013 the rate of unemployment inched up to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 21,000 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);


Wednesday, January 15^th

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for December analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during December 2013; this update will also pertain to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 10^th;


Thursday, January 16^th

07:00 – German Final CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI slightly rose by 0.2% during November, and the current annual rate is 1.3%. The changes in Germany’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refers to the main shifts in the core consumer price index for December 2013. Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during November, the CPI remained flat; the core CPI inched up again by 0.2%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 10^th; in the latest report the jobless claims fell again by 15k to reach 330k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the changes the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for November 2013. In the recent report regarding October 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $35.4 billion;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey regarding December, the growth rate slightly rose from +7 in November to +7 in December. If the index further declines, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 10^th;
16:10 –Bernanke’s Speech: The exiting Chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to give a speech titled “The Fed Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow” at the Brookings Institution, in WashingtonDC;


Friday, January 17^th

09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain rose by 0.3%; this report could affect the British pound;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for December 2013; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold tends to decline the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts grew by 22.7% during November to reach over 1.09 million houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during November, building permits slipped by 3.1% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1,007,000. If building permits pick up, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is reheating (the recent U.S building permits update);
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This update will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during December; as of November, the production rose by 1.1%; this report may affect the US dollar;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index sharply rose to 82.5;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for January 20-24


The prices of leading commodities didn’t move much in the past week. On the other hand, the US dollar sharply appreciated against leading currencies such as Euro, Japanese yen and Aussie dollar during last week. During the upcoming week several reports, decisions and events will come to fruition including: German PPI, China’s GDP report, German Ifo business climate, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s rate decision, U.S manufacturing PMI, BOC monetary policy report and rate decision, GB climate count, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI reports, Canada’s retail sales, Australia’s CPI, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of January 20^th to January 24^th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.
(All times GMT):


Monday, January 20^th

03:00 –China Fourth Quarter GDP 2013: In the third quarter of 2013, China grew by 7.8% in annual terms; China’s economy grew by 7.5% in the second quarter of 2013. The current expectations are that the fourth quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms by a similar rate to the previous quarter; if the growth rate further rises, this may positively affect commodities prices;
05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: Based on the recent monthly report, China industrial production slightly fell to an annual rate of 10%; if the growth rate rises again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing faster;
07:00 – German PPI: In the previous update, the German PPI slipped by 0.1%; the progress if Germany’s inflationary pressures could affect ECB’s monetary policy including the monthly rate decision;


Tuesday, January 21^st

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for December. In November, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 62 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to rally, the Euro could plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (November 2013): In the previous report regarding November 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 1%;
00:30 – Australia’s CPI for Q4 2013: This quarterly report will refer to the developments in the consumer price index. In the last report regarding the third quarter of 2013, the CPI rose to 1.2% compared to the second quarter and reached a growth rate of 2.2% compared to Q3 2012; this report could affect the Aussie dollar which is correlated with commodities prices;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of November) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;


Wednesday, January 22^nd

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 36.7k; the rate of unemployment edged down to 7.4%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank kept the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will decide on its overnight rate decision – the rate is currently set at 1%. The BOC may leave its policy unchanged and maintain its interest rate at its current level; the economic developments in Canada might prompt BOC to eventually reduce its cash rate;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly monetary policy report and will also have a press conference; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for January. Last month’s report regarding December 2013 the Manufacturing PMI inched up to 50.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is growing but at a slightly slower pace. If in the upcoming update the PMI index continues to decline, it could signal the progress in China’s economy is slowing down. This may also affect commodities prices;


Thursday, January 23^rd

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly report regarding December 2013, the Germany’s PMI increased again to 54.2 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing at a slightly faster rate. France’s PMI slipped to 47.1. This report serves signals to the changes in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:00 – Euro Area Current Account: In the last report, the gap in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers expanded to 21.8 billion Euros;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (November 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of November. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the last report regarding October 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 0.4%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 17^th; in the last report the jobless claims slipped by 2k to reach 326k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
14:00 –U.S flash manufacturing PMI: This report will show a flash of the monthly changes in the manufacturing sectors during January; as of December, the manufacturing PMI inched up to an index of 54.4;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during December 2013; in the last report regarding November 2013 the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.90 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 17^th;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 17^th;


Friday, January 24^th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly update will show the changes in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for December; in the previous report, the core CPI inched down by 0.1%;

[Samirofi]

Financial Markets Forecast for January 27-31


The forex and commodities markets demonstrated high volatility during the past week This week several reports will be released and may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: FOMC meeting, U.S new and pending home sales, U.S GDP for the fourth quarter, EU’s employment report, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, U.S consumer confidence, GB GDP for the fourth quarter, oil and gas EIA weekly update, ECOFIN and Euro-Group Summits and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of January 27^th to January 31^st referring to the U.S, Euro Area, China, Canada, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, January 27^th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the changes (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of January. In the last report regarding December 2013, the business climate index slightly rose to 109.5;
All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may pertain to the latest developments in Europe;
09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q3 2013: This report will present the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2013; during the third quarter the GB economy expanded by 0.8% (Q-2-Q); if the growth rate further increases, it could affect the monetary policy of Bank of England and also affect GB pound;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to December 2013; in the previous report (opens pdf; for November), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 464,000 – a 4.5% rise (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep rising, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is reheating; this news may also affect theUS dollar;


Tuesday, January 28^th

All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding December may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of November 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods rose to $497.9 billion; if this report shows another rise in new orders, then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: Based on the last monthly update, for December, the consumer confidence index rose to 78.1 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the January index may fall; this report might affect the USD;


Wednesday, January 29^th

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for January. In the latest report for December 2013, the climate index slightly rose to 7.6;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of December 2013. In the latest November report, the annual growth rate for M3 inched up to 1.5%; M1 declined to 6.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -2.3%. This news suggests the EU inflation is declining again as loans continue to shrink and the growth rate of M1 and M3 declines. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect future ECB rate decisions;
12:15 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will speak at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry’s member luncheon, in Edinburgh;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 24^th; the report will also present the shifts in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Statement: The will be the first FOMC meeting for this year will take place during January 28^th and 29^th. The FOMC will decide whether it will taper further QE3. Many analysts expect the FOMC will keep the current monetary policy unchanged. This meeting won’t include a press conference and economic outlook so this meeting is likely to have smaller effect on financial markets. In any case, if the Fed introduces changes to its monetary policy, gold and silver prices might be strongly affected by this decision;


Thursday, January 30^th

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate of its December’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 50.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding at a slightly slower rate than before. If the updated PMI index falls again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report estimates the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
13:30 – First U.S GDP 4Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s fourth quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP rose by 4.1% in the third quarter of 2013 (it was revised up). If the growth rate from third quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter further rises, this could positively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 24^th; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 1k to reach 326k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during December; in the previous update for November, pending home sales index inched up by 0.2% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress in the U.S housing market; if the index starts to fall again, it may drag down the U.S dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report refers to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 24^th;
01:30 – Australia’s PPI: This quarterly update will refer to fourth quarter of 2013. During the third quarter of 2013, the producer price index rose by 1.9% compared to the second quarter of 2012 and by 1.3% compared to Q2 2013; this index may affect the Aussie dollar;


Friday, January 31^st

10:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to December 2013. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.5% during November;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index calculates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to last estimate, the annual CPI reached 0.8%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate starts to rise, this could indicate the EU economy is progressing. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s cash rate decision next week;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report showed that the rate of unemployment remained flat at 12.1%. The rate remained high and around 12% throughout 2013. If the rate of unemployment remains elevated, it could adversely affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for November 2013. In the last update regarding October 2013, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.3%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of December, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 51 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are expanding at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI falls again, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;

Good Luck

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for February 3-7


Last week’s FOMC decision to cut further its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $65 billion a month may have contributed to the rally of the US dollar and the decline of precious metals prices. This upcoming week will be packed with many news items, decisions, reports and events that could stir up the financial markets again. These include: U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA ECB and BOE rate decisions, U.S, Canada, and Australia trade balance reports, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, EU and Australia retail sales updates, and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic forecast for the week of February 3^rd to February 7^th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, Euro Area, and Great Britain.


Monday, February 3^rd

08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s manufacturing sector in January 2014. In the previous update regarding December 2013 the index rose to 50.8. This rate drop means the manufacturing sector is contracting;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During December, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 57.3. This rate gain suggests the manufacturing sector is growing at a slower rate; this index might affect GB Pound;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to January 2014. In December, the index slipped to 57%; this means the manufacturing is growing at a slower pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The last time the RBA reduced its cash rate was back in September. The current rate is set at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to depreciation of the Aussie dollar against leading currencies including Euro and USD. The current expectations are that RBA will maintain its cash rate flat in this upcoming rate decision;


Tuesday, February 4^th

08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for December 2013, unemployment plummeted by 107.6k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
09:30 – GB Construction PMI:Great Britain’s construction sector in December 2013 slipped as the PMI increased to 62.1 – the construction sector is growing at a slower pace. The upcoming report will refer to January;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will pertain to the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during January; in the latest report factory orders increased by 1.8%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;


Wednesday, February 5^th

08:15 – Spanish Services PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s services sector in January 2014. In the last update regarding December 2013 the index rose to 54.2. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is growing;
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index decreased to 58.8; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to December 2013. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.4% during November;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for January 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will pertain to January 2014. In the recent report, this index declined to 53% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 31^st;


Thursday, February 6^th

02:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to December 2013. In the latest report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.7% during November; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be linked with oil and gold prices;
02:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to December. In the previous update, for November, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $120 million deficit; if gold exports rally, it might suggest a rise in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);
11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, factory orders rose by 2.1% during December;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for February 2014; the MPC will also state of any shifts to its asset purchase pogrom; as of December, BOE kept its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will announce its monetary policy and economic forecast as of February. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate flat, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to cut the cash deposit rate to become negative. This kind of hint might drag down the Euro;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 31^st; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 19k to reach 348k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding November 2013, the trade balance moved from $75 million surplus in October to a $0.9 billion deficit in November; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for December will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding November the goods and services deficit narrowed to $34.3billion;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of January 31^st;


Friday, February 7^th

01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will release its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will preset the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of December; in the last report regarding November 2013 the index remained flat; this news may affect the British Pound;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for December 2013, unemployment rose to 7.2%; the employment fell by 45.9k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the previous employment report regarding December 2013, the labor market modestly improved: The number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 74k – much lower than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate dropped to 6.7%. If the employment exceed 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may drag down gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;


Good Luck

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for February 10-14


The financial markets rallied as most stocks markets and commodities rose during last week. Even the lower than expected number of jobs added in the U.S during January, according to latest NF payroll report, didn’t stop commodities and stocks to increase on Friday. This week several reports, decisions and testimonies will take place including: Yellen’s testimony, U.S industrial production, Japan’s current account, EU GDP for the fourth quarter, French industrial production, Australia’s employment report, U.S retail sales, Canada’s budget, U.S federal budget, China new loans, China trade balance, and OPEC monthly update. Here is an economic outlook for the week of February 10^th to February 14^th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, China, Japan, and Australia.

(All times GMT):

Monday, February 10^th

00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the developments in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;
08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of January; as of December, the production rose by 1.3%; this report may affect the Euro currency;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance fell to a $25.6 billion surplus; if the surplus further falls, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t improving and thus may negatively affect commodities prices;


Tuesday, February 11^th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent shifts in China’s new loans. According to the previous update, the total loans fell again to 483 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;
16:10 –Yellen Testifies: The newly appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to testify in front of House Financial Services Committee. The Fed chairman will provide a Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress; this testimony could affect the financial markets;
21:00 –Canada’s Annual Budget: This will show the Federal government’s budget for this year;


Wednesday, February 12^th

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;
10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2014 and 2015;
15:30 – Draghi Speaks: ECB President will speak at the European Monetary Institute’s “Progress through Crisis” Conference organized by the European Central Bank and National Bank of Belgium, in Brussels;
Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held during the second week of January, the average rate reached 3.01% – the highest rate in recent months;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to January 2014; this report presents the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding December the deficit fell by $53 billion; if the deficit continues to narrows, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding next year’s budget cuts;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during January 2014; this update will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 7^th;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding December 2013 the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) decreased by 22,600 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);


Thursday, February 13^th

09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly update for January analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will present a revised (as of December) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to January; in the last report regarding December, retail sales slightly rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.7%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could suggest the developments in demand for gasoline;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 7^th; in the latest report the jobless claims fell by 20k to reach 331k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 7^th;
16:40 –Yellen Testifies: The Chairman of the Federal Reserve will also testify in front of Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee;
02:30 – China’s CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI fell to an annual rate of 2.5%; if the annual rate continues to fall, it could suggest the Chinese economy is slowing down;


Friday, February 14^th

07:00 –EU and German Fourth Quarter GDP 2013: In the third quarter of 2013, Germany’s economy grew by 0.3%. The progress of the German economy is likely to affect the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may adversely affect Euro;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent report regarding December 2013, manufacturing sales increased again by 1%;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during January; as of December, the production inched up by 0.3%; this report may affect the US dollar;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index slipped to 80.4;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for February 17-21


The prices of leading commodities rallied during the past week. Moreover, the US dollar also depreciated against leading currencies such as Euro, Japanese yen and Aussie dollar during last week. In the upcoming week several reports, decisions and events will come to fruition including: Minutes of FOMC meeting, U.S PPI, China’s new loans, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s rate decision, minutes of last RBA meeting, ECOFIN Summit, U.S housing starts, GB climate count, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI reports, Canada’s retail sales, U.S CPI, and G20 Summit. Here is an economic outlook for the week of February 17^th to February 21^st regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, February 17^th

Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent developments in China’s new loans. According to the last update, the total loans dropped; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;
All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will be held in Brussels; the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may pertain to the latest developments in Europe;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, and the RBA is likely to change its monetary policy and not further cut its rate in the near future. The minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its recent decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities prices;


Tuesday, February 18^th

Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the forthcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for January. In December, the ZEW indicator for Germany slipped to 61.7 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to fall, the Euro could plausibly weaken against other currencies including the US dollar;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for December 2013. In the recent report regarding November 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $29.3 billion;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;


Wednesday, February 19^th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 24; the rate of unemployment inched down to 7.1%;
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank left the rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for January 2014; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold tends to decline the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts fell by 9.8% during December to reach over 999,000 houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during December, building permits dropped by 3% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 986,000. If building permits pick up, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is reheating (the recent U.S building permits update);
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to January 2014. In the last report regarding December, this index for finished goods rose by 0.4% compared with December’s level; the core PPI increased by 0.3%; this news might affect the USD;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 14^th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Back in January, the FOMC meeting decided to further taper its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $65 billion a month. This news seems to have had short term adverse effect on the prices of gold and silver. The US dollar also rallied against major currencies. But since then, the USD dollar fell and the prices of precious metals rallied. The upcoming minutes might shed some light on this decision, which could stir up the markets again;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in December 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit slightly contracted to 1,150 billion yen (roughly $11.2 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s shifts in demand for goods and services;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for February. Last month’s report regarding January 2014 the Manufacturing PMI inched down to 49.6 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is contracting for the first time since July 2013. If in the upcoming update the PMI index continues to drop, it could signal the progress in China’s economy is slowing down. This may also affect commodities prices;


Thursday, February 20^th

All Day – G20 Summit
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the recent monthly report regarding January 2014, Germany’s PMI increased again to 56.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing at a faster pace. France’s PMI also rose to 48.8. This report serves estimates to the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the main changes in the core consumer price index for January 2014. Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during December, the CPI rose by 0.3%; the core CPI inched up again by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding February, the growth rate slightly rose from +7 in December to +9.4 in January. If the index further declines, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 14^th; in the recent report the jobless claims rose by 8k to reach 339k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 14^th;


Friday, February 21^st

All Day – G20 Summit
09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: According to last month’s update, retail sales in Great Britain jumped by 2.6%; this report could affect the British pound;
10:00 – EU Economic Forecast: The European Commission will release its quarterly outlook report for the EU economy;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (December 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of December. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the last report regarding November 2013, manufacturing sales rose again by 0.4%;
13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly update will show the developments in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for January; in the previous report, the core CPI slipped by 0.4%;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the changes in U.S. existing home sales during January 2014; in the last report regarding December 2013 the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.87 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for February 24-28


The commodities markets continued to recover last week; in the forex market the Euro slightly appreciated against the USD. This week several reports will come out and may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: EU economic outlook, U.S new and pending home sales, U.S GDP for the fourth quarter, EU’s employment report, China’s manufacturing PMI, EU monetary development, U.S consumer confidence, GB GDP for the fourth quarter, oil and gas EIA weekly update, Australia Private New Capital Expenditure and Canada’s GDP. Here is a breakdown for the week of February 24th to February 28th referring to the U.S, Euro Area, China, Canada, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, February 24^th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of February. In the last report regarding January 2014, the business climate index slightly increased again to 110.6;
10:00 – EU CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI slightly fell to an annual rate of 0.8% during December. The changes in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;


Tuesday, February 25^th

10:00 – EU Economic Forecast: The European Commission will issue its quarterly outlook report for the EU economy;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for January, the consumer confidence index increased to 80.7 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the February index may rise again; this report might affect the USD;


Wednesday, February 26^th

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for February. In the previous report for January 2014, the climate index rose to 8.2;
09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q4 2013: This report will show the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2013; during the third quarter the GB economy grew by 0.8% (Q-2-Q); if the growth rate remains unchanged or very close to the first estimate, it could have little effect on the GB pound;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to January 2014; in the previous report (opens pdf; for December), the sales of new homes fell to an annual rate of 414,000 – a 10% drop (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep falling, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is cooling down; this news may also affect theUS dollar;
02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly update shows the shifts in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2013. As of the previous quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure rose by 3.6% (Q-o-Q) but fell by 0.7% compared to last year. If capital expenditures continue to pick up, this trend may positively affect the Aussie dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 21^st; the report will also present the shifts in imports, refinery input and production, which could provide some insight behind the latest shifts in the price of crude oil in the U.S;


Thursday, February 27^th

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of January 2014. In the latest December report, the annual growth rate for M3 fell to 1%; M1 declined to 5.8%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector remained at -2.3%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to shrink and the growth rate of M1 and M3 declines. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect future ECB rate decisions;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding January may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of December 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods decreased to $229.3 billion; if this report shows another fall in new orders, then it could pull down not only the USD but also commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly update: This weekly report will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 21^st; in the recent report the jobless claims fell by 3k to reach 336k; this next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly report pertains to the U.S. natural gas market; the report presents the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of February 21^st;


Friday, February 28^th

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report estimates the developments in the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
10:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade fell by 2.5% during December;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index calculates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to last estimate for January, the annual CPI reached 0.7%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate keeps falling, this could indicate the EU economy is shrinking. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s cash rate decision next week;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s report showed that the rate of unemployment remained inched down to 12%. The rate remained high and around 12% throughout 2013. If the rate of unemployment remains high, it could adversely affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for December 2013. In the last update regarding November 2013, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.2%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices such as oil and gold;
13:30 – Second U.S GDP 4Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s fourth quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the early estimate, the U.S GDP grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013. In the third quarter the GDP grew by 4.1%. If the growth rate in the second estimate rises from the first estimate, this could positively impact not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during January; in the previous update for December, pending home sales index plunged by 8.7% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress in the U.S housing market; if the index falls again, it may drag down the U.S dollar;
15:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will participate in a panel discussion at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of January, the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are expanding at a slower rate. If in the upcoming report the PMI falls again, it could signal slowdown in the growth rate in China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;