Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for March 3-7


The commodities markets slowed down last week; in the forex market the U.S dollar slightly depreciated against the Euro. This week will be packed with many news items, decisions, reports and events that could affect the commodities and forex markets. These include: U.S non-farm payroll report, Spain’s employment report, RBA, BOC, ECB and BOE rate decisions, China’s manufacturing PMI, Australia’s GDP for the fourth quarter, U.S and Canada trade balance reports, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, Draghi’s speech, RBA governor talks, EU and Australia retail sales updates, and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic forecast for the week of March 3^rd to March 7^th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, China, Euro Area, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):


Monday, March 3^rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate of its February’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 49.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contacting. If the updated PMI index drops again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to Spain’s manufacturing sector in February 2014. In the last update regarding January 2014 the index rose to 52.2. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During January, Great Britain’s manufacturing index declined to 56.7. This rate gain suggests the manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace; this index might affect GB Pound;
14:00 – Draghi Speaks: ECB President will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Brussels;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to February 2014. In January, the index tumbled down to 51.3%; this means the manufacturing is growing at a much slower pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The last time the RBA cut its cash rate was back in September 2013. The current rate is set at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to depreciation of the Aussie dollar against currencies such Euro and USD. But given the last cash rate decision it seems that the RBA might not cut again its cash rate in the near future;


Tuesday, March 4^th

02:30 – Australian GDP Fourth Quarter 2013: This quarterly report will refer to the Australia’s GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2013. In the third quarter of 2013, the GDP grew by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted). Australia is among the leading countries in exporting commodities such as oil, LNG, and metal ores to big economies such as China and Japan; if the GDP growth rate will increase, it could positively affect the Australia dollar (see here last report);
08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for January 2014, unemployment rose by 113.1k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
09:30 – GB Construction PMI:Great Britain’s construction sector in January 2014 improved as the PMI increased to 64.6 – the construction sector is growing at a faster pace. The upcoming report will refer to February;


Wednesday, March 5^th

09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index slipped to 58.3; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade fell by 1.6% during December;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for February 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will decide on its overnight rate decision – the rate is currently set at 1%. The BOC may leave its policy unchanged and maintain its interest rate at its current level;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, this index rose to 54% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on February 28^th;


Thursday, March 6^th

02:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to January 2014. In the recent report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.5% during December; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
02:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to January. In the previous update, for December, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $470 million surplus; the report will also show the changes in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest a rally in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);
11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, factory orders fell by 0.5% during January;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for March 2014; the MPC will also state of any shifts to its asset purchase pogrom; as of February, BOE kept its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will state its monetary policy and economic forecast as of March. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate unchanged, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to cut the cash deposit rate to become negative. This kind of hint might pull down the Euro; there will also be an ECB press conference;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on February 28^th; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 14k to reach 348k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer to the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during February; in the latest report factory orders decreased by 1.5%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of February 28^th;
22:30 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Canberra; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;


Friday, March 7^th

11:00 – German Industrial Production: The next report will refer to February 2014. In the previous update, the industrial production changed course and fell by 0.6% during January;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding December 2014, the trade balance moved from $0.9 billion deficit in November to $1.7 billion deficit in December; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for January will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding December the goods and services deficit widened to $38.7billion;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update for January 2014, unemployment slipped to 7%; the employment rose by 29.4k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the previous employment report regarding January 2014, the labor market modestly grew: The number of non-farm payroll employment increased by 113k – much lower than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate inched down to 6.6%. If the employment exceed 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may pull down gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance rose to a $31.9 billion surplus; if the surplus further rises, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities prices;
02:30 – China’s CPI: Based on the recent report, the CPI remained unchanged at annual rate of 2.5%; if the annual rate falls, it could suggest the Chinese economy is slowing down.

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for March 31- April 4


The precious metals market cooled down again last week; energy commodities prices rallied; in the forex market the U.S dollar slightly appreciated against the Euro and Japanese yen and dropped against the Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar. This week many news items, decisions, speeches, press conference and events could affect the commodities and forex markets. These include: FOMC Chair Yellen’s speech, U.S non-farm payroll report, RBA and ECB rate decisions, China’s manufacturing PMI, Australia’s retail sales, U.S and Canada trade balance updates, U.S ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment report, RBA governor speech, EU and German retail sales reports, ECOFIN Summit and U.S factory orders. Here is an economic outlook for the week of March 31st to April 4th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, China, Euro Area, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):


Monday, March 31^st

07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 2.5% during January;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report projects the developments in the Swiss economy in the coming months;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. Based on the last estimate for February, the annual CPI reached 0.8%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate picks up, this could indicate the EU economy is slowly recovering. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s cash rate decision later this week;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly update shows the developments in major industrial sectors for January 2014. In the last update regarding December 2013, the real gross domestic product slipped by 0.5%. This report may affect the Canadian dollar, which is strongly correlated with commodities prices including oil and gold;
14:55 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following the latest FOMC decision to taper QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech at the 2014 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference in Chicago. The title of her speech is “Strengthening Communities”. Her words carry weight and could stir up the financial markets again especially if she were to address the FOMC’s monetary policy or the progress of the U.S economy;
16:15 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will participate in a press conference at the Bank of England, in London;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of February, the Manufacturing PMI inched down to 50.2 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are still growing but at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI declines again, it could signal slowdown in the progress of China’s manufacturing sectors, which could also negatively affect oil and gold prices;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate of its March’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 48.5 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contacting. If the updated PMI index falls again, this will suggest China’s manufacturing conditions aren’t improving;
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA didn’t slash its cash rate since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.50% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to fall of the Aussie dollar against currencies such Euro and USD. Nonetheless, RBA isn’t likely to cut down its cash rate in the upcoming meeting – this could pull back up the Aussie dollar;


Tuesday, April 1^st

08:15 – Spanish Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to Spain’s manufacturing sector in March 2014. In the last update regarding February 2014 the index inched up to 52.5. This rate gain means the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster rate;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During January, Great Britain’s manufacturing index edged up to 56.9. This rate gain implies the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace; this index might affect GB Pound;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the rate of unemployment remained flat at 12%. If the rate of unemployment remains elevated, it could adversely affect the Euro;
All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will convene and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to March 2014. In February, the index bounced back to 53.2; this means the manufacturing is growing at a faster pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;


Wednesday, April 2^nd

08:00 – Spain’s Unemployment Update: In the latest unemployment update for February 2014, unemployment slipped by 1.9k. The next report might affect the Euro and consequently commodities;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for March 2014 that will be released on Friday;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer to the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during March; in the latest report factory orders declined by 0.7%; this report will offer some insight regarding the progress of the U.S economy;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on March 28^th;


Thursday, April 3^rd

01:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly update will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 1.2% during January; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to February. In the previous update, for January, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $1,430 million surplus; the report will also show the shifts in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest a rally in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);
03:00 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the American Chamber of Commerce in Australia iiNet Business Luncheon, in Brisbane; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to February 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 1.6% during January;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy and economic outlook as of April. The current expectations are that ECB will keep its cash rate flat, but ECB President Mario Draghi may hint of future plans to reduce the cash deposit rate. This rate decision could affect the direction of the Euro; an ECB press conference will also be held following the statement of the ECB regarding its monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 28^th; in the last report the jobless claims decreased by 10k to reach 311k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last update regarding January 2014, the trade balance moved from $1.7 billion deficit in December to $0.2 billion deficit in January; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be correlated with commodities;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for February will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; according to the last American trade balance update regarding January the goods and services deficit widened to $39.1billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to March 2014. In the recent report, this index fell to 51.6% – the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace compared to the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of March 28^th;


Friday, April 4^th

11:00 – German Factory Orders: This monthly report will refer to March 2014. In the recent report, factory orders rose by 1.2% during February;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update for February 2014, unemployment remained at 7%; the employment slipped by 7k during last month. The next report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities rates;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report regarding February 2014, the labor market grew again: The number of non-farm payroll employment rose by 175k – higher than the number many had expected; the U.S unemployment rate inched up to 6.7%. If the employment growth exceeds 150 thousand (in additional jobs), this may drag down again gold and silver and positively affect the U.S dollar and U.S stock markets;
15:00 – Canadian Ivey PMI: In the previous update, the PMI rose to 57.2; this index may affect the progress of the Canadian dollar;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for April 7-11


The commodities markets recovered mainly at after the U.S NF payroll report showed a rise of 192k in jobs during March. This week several reports and events will take place including: G20 Summit, U.S JOLTS Job Openings, China’s CPI, minutes of FOMC meeting, Japan’s current account, U.S PPI, Great Britain Manufacturing Production, Australia’s employment report, U.S federal budget, China new loans, BOC Business Outlook Survey, BOE and BOJ monetary policy meetings, and IEA and OPEC monthly update. Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 7^th to April 11^th


(All times GMT):


Monday, April 7^th

08:00 – Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves: Swiss National Bank will provide an update on its reserves. In the previous update, total reserves reached 433.5 billion CHF;
15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: Bank of Canada will release its quarterly report on the recent economic developments in Canada and any changes to its economic forecast. This report could also reflect the potential changes in BOC’s monetary policy;
00:50 – Japan Current Account: This report will refer to the changes in the gap between exports and imports for Japan during last month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;


Tuesday, April 8^th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of February; in the last report regarding January 2014 the index rose by 0.4%; this news may affect the British Pound;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly update on the U.S number of job openings during March, excluding the farming industry; in the past report regarding February, the number of jobs opening was 3.97 million;


Wednesday, April 9^th

Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans rose to 645 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand during March 2014; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 4^th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Back in March, the FOMC meeting decided to taper again its asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $55 billion a month. This news seems to have had an adverse effect on the prices of gold and silver. The US dollar also recovered against major currencies. The upcoming minutes might shed some light on this decision, the FOMC’s future monetary steps and especially the decision process about setting the timing for hiking its cash rate;
02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report regarding February 2014 the rate of unemployment remained flat at 6%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) grew by 47,300 people. This report could affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);


Thursday, April 10^th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly update, China’s trade balance dropped from a surplus to a $23 billion deficit; if the deficit expands further, it could indicate China’s economy isn’t improving and thus may negatively affect commodities prices;
08:45 –French Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of February; as of February, the production inched down by 0.2%;
09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for February analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecast of the EU;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will publish its basic rate for April 2014; the MPC will also state of any changes to its asset purchase pogrom; as of March, BOE leave its interest rates at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
Day 1 – G20 Summit: The ministers of finance of the leading economies will convene and are expected to talk about a range of global economic issues, including Russian-Ukraine crisis, in WashingtonDC;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 4^th; in the previous report the jobless claims rose by 16k to reach 326k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 4^th;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This forthcoming report will refer to March 2014; this report presents the government debt growth and thus may affect the U.S dollar. In the last report regarding February the deficit dropped by $193.5 billion; if the deficit widens further, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision regarding implementing additional budget cuts in the future;
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan will release the kept the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting. This report may offer some insight regarding the bank’s future plans; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI slipped to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate declines again, it could signal the Chinese economy is slowing down.


Friday, April 11^th

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to March 2014. In the recent report regarding February, this index for finished goods inched down by 0.1% compared with January’s level; the core PPI also decreased by 0.2%; this news might affect the USD;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of March) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2014;
Day 2 – G20 Summit: This will the second day of this summit;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent update, the sentiment index decreased to 79.9;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for April 14-18


The commodities markets heated up as oil, natural gas and precious metals rallied during last week. This week several reports, speeches and publications will come to fruition including: U.S retail sales, China’s GDP for the first quarter, Janet Yellen’s speech, BOJ’s Kuroda speech, U.S industrial production, Great Britain Claimant Count, U.S CPI, BOC rate decision, U.S housing starts and building permits, China new loans, Philly Fed index, and EU industrial production. Here is an economic outlook for the week of April 14th to April 18th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, Japan, Canada, Great Britain, and Australia.

(All times GMT):

Monday, April 14^th

10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of March; as of February, the production slipped by 0.2%; this report may affect the Euro currency;
Tentative – China New Loans: According to the last report, the total loans fell to 645 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic activity;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to March; in the last report regarding February, retail sales slightly rose by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail also increased by 0.3%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some input regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, and the RBA is likely to keep its monetary policy and its rate unchanged in the near future. The minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its recent decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities prices;


Tuesday, April 15^th

10:30 – GB CPI: According to the recent update, the CPI slightly fell to an annual rate of 1.7% during February. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could affect BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for March. In February, the ZEW indicator for Germany tumbled down to 46.6 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to fall, the Euro could plausibly weaken against other currencies including the US dollar;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding February 2014, manufacturing sales increased by 1.5%;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertain to the main developments in the core consumer price index for March 2014. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during February, the CPI edged up by 0.1%; the core CPI also inched up by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:45 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Conference: 2014 Financial Markets Conference, Stone Mountain, Georgia;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for February 2014. In the previous report regarding January 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a surplus of $7.3 billion;
03:00 –China First Quarter GDP 2014: In the fourth quarter of 2013, China grew by 7.7% in annual terms; China’s economy grew by 7.8% in the third quarter of 2013. The current expectations are that the first quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms by a similar pace to the previous quarter; if the growth rate further increases, this may positively affect commodities prices;


Wednesday, April 16^th

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production declined to an annual rate of 8.6%; if the growth rate drops again, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing slower;
07:15 –Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks: Governor Kuroda will speak at the 89th Convention of the Trust Companies Association of Japan, in Tokyo;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB fell again by 34.6k; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 7.2%;
10:00 – EU CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 0.7% during February. The changes in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for March 2014; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rises, gold tends to fall the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts rose by 3.4% during February to reach over 910k houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last update, during February, building permits rose by 8.5% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 1,020k. If building permits continues to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is heating up (the recent U.S building permits update);
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the U.S industrial production during March; as of February, the production rose by 0.6%; this report may affect the US dollar;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will decide on its overnight rate – the rate is set at 1%. The BOC may keep its policy unchanged and maintain its interest rate at 1%; the economic developments in Canada might prompt BOC to eventually reduce its cash rate;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will publish its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on April 11^th;
17:15 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: Following the recent release of the minutes of the last FOMC, in which the FOMC decided to taper QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech titled “Monetary Policy and the Economic Recovery” at the Economic Club of New York. Her words carry weight and could stir up the financial markets again especially if she were to address the FOMC’s monetary policy;
01:30 –Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks: Governor Kuroda will speak at the Branch Managers Meeting, in Tokyo;


Thursday, April 17^th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the developments in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for February; in the recent report, the core CPI rose by 0.7%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on April 11^th; in the recent report the jobless claims fell by 32k to reach 300k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding March, the growth rate rose from -6.3 in February to +9 in March. If the index further rises, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of April 11^th;


Friday, April 18^th

Good Friday – Stocks and Commodities Markets Remain Closed

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for June 23-27


Last week’s FOMC meeting concluded with more dovish tone than many had expected. This news may have contributed to the recovery of precious metals and slightly rally of the USD. This week, several key reports will be released that could impact the financial markets including: U.S PCE, personal spending, home sales, final GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2014, core durable goods, jobless claims, consumer confidence, and consumer sentiment. Great Britain’s current account and GDP final estimate along with BOE’s Carney’s press conferences will be the main events. In the Euro Area, several economic reports will be published such as EU manufacturing PMI, and Germany’s business climate. Also, the EU economic summit will take place. Finally, in Asia, BOJ Kuroda will give a speech; China’s manufacturing PMI will be released. Here is a short outlook of these reports and events for the week of June 23^rd to June 27^th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, June 23^rd

02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will publish its flash manufacturing PMI survey for June. Last month’s report regarding May 2014, the Manufacturing PMI increased again to 49.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is scaling down but at a slower pace. If in the upcoming report the PMI index picks up again, it means China’s manufacturing sector is improving;
07:00 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan will give a speech at the 2014 Japan Association of Corporate Executive Members’ Meeting, in Tokyo;
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly update regarding May 2014, France’s PMI fell to 49.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting. Germany’s PMI slipped to 52.9 – the industry still grows but a slower rate. These estimates show the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the changes in U.S. existing home sales for May 2014; in the recent report regarding April, the number of homes sold edged up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.65 million houses; if this trend persists, it might positively affect the U.S dollar;


Tuesday, June 24^th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of June. In the last report regarding May 2014, the business climate index slipped to 110.4;
09:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will speak, among other MPC members, at the Treasury Committee Hearing, in London;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for May, the consumer confidence index slightly rose to 83 (month-over-month). This report might impact the USD;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to May 2014; in the last report (opens pdf; for April), the sales of new homes rose to an annual rate of 433,000 – a 12.7% gain (month-over-month); if the number of home sales keep recovering, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is heating down; this news may also impact theUS dollar;


Wednesday, June 25^th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report regarding May will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of April 2014, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $239.9 billion – a 0.6% rise compared to March; if this report shows additional growth in new orders, then it could rally not only the USD but also commodities;
13:30 – Final U.S GDP 1Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s first quarter 2014 real GDP growth. In the last estimate the U.S GDP contacted by 1% in the first quarter (annual pace). If the growth rate were to be revised down again, this might adversely affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 20^th;


Thursday, June 26^th

10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England will hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report, in London;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 20^th; in the previous report the jobless claims fell by 6k to reach 312k;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: Following the recent remarks made by Chair of the FOMC Yellen regarding the importance of the personal consumption expenditures over the CPI in assessing the changes in the inflation, investors are likely to pay closer attention to the PCE. In the past report, the price index of the PCE rose by 0.3% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) by the same rate. On an annual rate, the core PCE increased by only 1.4% – less than the inflation target.
13:30 – U.S. Personal Spending: Based on the previous update, spending slipped by 0.1%;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of June 20^th;


Friday, June 27^th

All Day – EU Economic Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;
Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for May 2014, the CPI inched down by 0.1%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This report estimates the progress of the Swiss economy in the coming months;
09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will show any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. According to the previous update, the deficit expanded to 22.4 billion pounds. This report might affect the British Pound;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 81.9;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for June 30- July 4


The energy commodities markets cooled down during last week as oil and natural gas prices changed course and fell. Precious metals remained virtually unchanged. This week, in the U.S several economic reports will be published including non-farm payroll, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders, pending home sales, trade balance, factory orders, and jobless claims. Chair of the FOMC Yellen will give a speech. In Europe, the ECB rate decision will be the main focus. Germany’s retail sales and factory orders will be released. EU monetary development, CPI and rate of unemployment will also be published. RBA will decide its rate for July. China’s manufacturing PMI report will come out. In Canada, its trade balance and GDP monthly updates will be released. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of June 30^th to July 4^th.


(All times GMT):


Tuesday, July 1^st

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged since September 2013. The current rate is at 2.5%. RBA isn’t likely to cut its cash rate in the upcoming meeting;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Update: In the previous unemployment update for May 2014, unemployment rose by 25k. The next report might impact the Euro and consequently commodities;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During March, Great Britain’s manufacturing index inched down to 57. This rate gain implies the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slightly slower pace; this index might affect GB Pound;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update showed that the rate of unemployment edged down again to 11.7%. This means the labor market in the Euro Area has yet to recover;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for May, the annual CPI slipped to 0.5%; the core CPI fell to 0.7%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate remains low, this could indicate the EU economy isn’t progressing. These changes could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s future cash rate decisions;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will pertain to June 2014. Back in May, the index rose to 55.4; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a faster rate; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;


Wednesday, July 2^nd

01:30 – Australian Trade Balance: The upcoming report will refer to May. In the previous update, for April, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services reached a $120 million deficit; the report will also show the changes in the exports of gold; if gold exports rise, it might suggest an increase in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);
09:30 – GB Construction PMI: According the previous update, the index declined again to 60; this means the contraction sectors is growing at a slower pace;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll:ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for June 2014 that will be published on Thursday;
15:00 – U.S Factory Orders: This report will refer to the developments in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods during June; in the latest report factory orders rose by 0.7%; this report will offer some insight regarding the developments in the U.S economy;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on June 27^th;
16:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the International Monetary Fund, in Washington DC; her remarks could impact the financial markets if she were to refer to the future plans of the FOMC and the economic progress of the U.S economy. But based on her last press conference following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, I’m a bit dubious she will offer any actual information or hints about these issues;
05:00 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to speak at the Australian Conference of Economists and the Econometric Society of Australasian Meeting, in Hobart; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;


Thursday, July 3^rd

01:30 – Australian Retail Sales: In the recent report referring to April, the seasonally adjusted retail sales rose by 0.2%; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with oil and gold prices;
09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the last report, this index inched down to 58.6; this index may affect the British Pound’s direction;
10:00 – EU Retail Sales: This monthly report will refer to May 2014. In the recent report, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.4% during April;
12:45 – ECB Rate Decision: ECB will update its monetary policy for July. Following the previous decision from last month to reduce the deposit rate, Mario Draghi may refer to any future steps the ECB could take to jump start the EU economy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on June 27^th; in the previous report the jobless claims remained at 312K; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report regarding April, the trade balance moved from $0.1 billion surplus in March to $0.6 billion deficit in April; if the trade balance show a sharp shift, it could impact the Canadian dollar;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to May 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment expanded by 217K; the U.S unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%. In the four reports, the average growth in employment was over 200K. If the upcoming report shows another strong month of over 200K, this could keep slowly pulling up the USD and slightly cutting down the prices of gold and silver;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for April will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the latest American trade balance update regarding March the goods and services deficit widened to $47.2 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly report will refer to June 2014. In the recent report, this index rose to 56.3% — the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a faster rate compared to the last month;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of June 27^th;


Friday, July 4^th

11:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders rose by 3.1% during May;

[Samirofi]

Forex Weekly Outlook July 14-18


Draghi’s testimony, Rate decision in Japan and Canada, German Economic Sentiment, Carney’s speech, US retail sales, Janet Yellen’s testimony before the US senate, US manufacturing, employment and consumer sentiment data are the main Market movers on our calendar for this week. Here is an outlook on the major events to change Forex trading.

Last week FOMC Meeting Minutes release showed that the Fed is finally moving towards preparing the markets for monetary normalization. The Fed decided to end QE in October 2014, with a larger than expected taper of $15 billion rather than prolonging the process till December. However there wasn’t any clear indication regarding the possible timeline for a rate hike. Regarding inflation, The Fed noted it had moved up recently, but some members said that employment market still needs to improve. Overall, the minutes confirm that policy changes will be made according to plan unless new data arrives.


Let’s start,


Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 17:00. ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Strasbourg. He may talk on the ongoing weak inflation, despite the ECB’s recent moves. Volatility is expected.

Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan decided to keep monetary policy unchanged on its June meeting, pledging to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen. The central bank noted the economy is progressing at a moderate pace in line with expectations and revised up its outlook on overseas economies in light of a progress in industrial output.

UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. Inflation in the UK declined in May to a four and a half year low of 1.5%, following 1.8% in posted in April. Lower flight rates and food prices pushed inflation down. Inflation remained below the BOE’s 2% target for the sixth month. However prices still increase faster than average earnings influencing consumer spending. CPI is expected to reach 1.6%.

Mark Carney speaks: Tuesday, 9:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak about the Financial Stability in London. Market volatility is expected.

Eurozone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00 Investor sentiment continued to decline in June reaching the lowest level in 18 months, down 3.3 points to 29.8. Economists expected the index to reach 35.2. This was the sixth consecutive fall indicating a grim outlook for economic growth unlike the 5.6 points rise to 67.7 for current economic conditions. However the ZEW survey can be volatile. German sentiment is expected to rise to 33.4.

US retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales gained 0.3% in May, less than the 0.5% rise projected by analysts, following a 0.5% increase in the previous month. However the positive growth trend in the US employment market leaves less room for concern. Meanwhile core sales, excluding autos increased 0.1% in May after a 0.4% increase in the previous month. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.6%.

Janet Yellen speaks: Tuesday, 14:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the US Senate in Washington DC. Important issues may be raised such as the final taper decision, inflation situation and rate hike schedule. Market volatility is expected.

UK employment data: Wednesday: 8:30. The number of people filing claims for unemployment benefits in the U.K dropped more than expected in May, falling by a seasonally adjusted 27,400, while the unemployment rate plunged to 6.6% from 6.8% in April. Analysts expected jobless claims to reach 25,000 and unemployment rate to 6.7%. Meanwhile, the average earnings index edged up by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in the three months to April, less than the 1.2% increase projected, after rising by 1.9% in the three months to March. The number of Jobless people is expected to decline by 27,100 and the unemployment rate is expected to remain 6.6%

US PPI : Wednesday, 12:30. Producer prices in the U.S. fell unexpectedly in May by 0.2%, confirming that inflation is mild. Chipper food and gas pushed PPI down after two strong climbs raising hopes for higher inflation figures. In the last 12 months, producer prices increased 2%, in line with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target following 2.1% in April. Core PPI, excluding food and energy products, remained unchanged in May. Producer prices are expected to rise to 0.4%.

Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 1%. Inflation moved closer to the central bank’s target of 2%. The Canadian economy grew at a modest rate in the first quarter, troubled by by severe weather and supply constraints. However lower Canadian dollar and a rising foreign demand are expected to boost exports. Improved corporate profits, especially in exchange rate-sensitive sectors, should also support higher business investment in the coming quarters. The next change in monetary policy will depend on new information and its influence on the balance of risks.

US Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The number of building permits issued in the U.S. declined more-than-expected in May, falling 6.4% to a seasonally adjusted 991,000 units. Analysts expected a rise to 1.07 million units. Meanwhile, housing starts declined 6.5% to a seasonally adjusted 1.001 million units from April’s total of 1.071 million, worse than the 3.7% drop predicted by analysts. The number of building permits is expected to reach 1.04 million this time.

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 last week reaching 304,000, well below estimates of a 315,000 rise. The reading brought unemployment claims near to a seven-year low of 298,000. The four-week moving average, fell to 311,500, lower by 3,500 from the unrevised average of 315,000 in the previous week. The number of jobless claims is expected to rise by 310,000.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. The manufacturing sector around the Philadelphia region edged up in June, reaching 17.8, above May’s reading of 15.4. Economists expected the survey to reach 14.3. This was the fourth consecutive month in positive territory and the strongest figure since September. New orders expanded by 6 points to 16.8, new shipments increased to 15.5, following 14.2 in May and the employment index also edged up to 11.9, from May’s reading of 7.8. The positive shifts suggest the US manufacturing sector is picking up. The manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia area is expected to decline to 15.6.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 13:55. U.S. consumer sentiment declined in June to 81.2 down from 81.9 posted in May, but the lower figure does not necessarily suggests a downside trend. Consumers were positive regarding the past six months. Current economic conditions edged up to 95.4 from 94.5 and was below a forecast of 95.7 and consumer expectations declined to 72.2 from 73.7, and missed an expected 74.6. Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 83.5.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies

*All times are GMT.

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for July 14-18


The prices of oil and natural gas took a noise dive last week, while precious metals rallied mainly by the end of the week. On this week’s agenda: Yellen testifies, Philly Fed index, U.S PPI, China’s GDP for the second quarter, Draghi testifies, EU industrial production, China’s new loans, U.S retail sales, BOC rate decision, and U.S housing starts. So let’s break down the economic colander for the week of July 14th to July 18th.
(All times GMT):


Monday, July 14^th


Tentative – China New Loans: According to the recent monthly report, the total loans reached 871 billion Yuan; this report is another indicator for China’s economic progress;
10:00 –EU Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly shifts in the industrial production as of June; as of May, the production bounced back by 0.8%;
18:00 – Draghi Testifies: ECB President will testify on monetary policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, in Strasbourg;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. The minutes of the previous monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest rate decision. Since the Bank isn’t likely to change its policy anytime soon, the minutes aren’t likely to impact the Aussie dollar;


Tuesday, July 15^th

09:30 – GB CPI: According to the latest report, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 1.5% during May. The changes in Great Britain’s inflation could affect BOE’s monetary policy;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The next report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for June. In May, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped again to 29.8 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to fall, the Euro could plausibly weaken against leading currencies;
10:30 – BOE Governor Carney Speaks: The Governor of Bank of England is expected to testify, along with BOE Deputy Governor Andrew Bailey, regarding the Financial Stability Report at the House of Commons Treasury Committee Hearing, in London;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly update refers to June; in the previous report regarding May, retail sales rose by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail edged up by 0.1%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight regarding the developments in demand for gasoline;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Following the latest FOMC decision to taper again QE3 by $10 billion, FOMC Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC. If she were to refer to the FOMC’s future plans regarding its policy, this testimony could impact the USD and precious metals prices;
03:00 –China Second Quarter GDP 2014: In the first quarter of 2014, China grew by 7.4% in annual terms – lower than in the previous quarter. If the growth rate falls further, this may adversely affect commodities prices;
03:00 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly report, China industrial production inched up to an annual rate of 8.8%; if the growth rate rises, it may suggest China’s economy is progressing at a faster pace;


Wednesday, July 16^th

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB dropped again by 27.4K; the rate of unemployment slipped to 6.6%; as the British economy keeps picking up, the BOE is likely to turn more hawkish;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the recent update regarding May 2014, manufacturing sales inched down by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to June 2014. In the latest report regarding May, this index for finished goods slipped by 0.2% compared with April’s level; the core PPI also inched down by 0.1%; this news might impact the USD;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for May 2014. In the previous report regarding April 2014, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $24.2 billion;
14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly changes in the U.S industrial production during June; as of May, the production changed direction and rose by 0.6%;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Overnight Rate and Press Conference: The Bank of Canada will announce of any changes to its overnight rate – the rate is set at 1%. The BOC isn’t expected to make any change to its policy;
15:00 – Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: The Bank of Canada will also publish its quarterly monetary policy report; if the Bank presents any shifts in this press conference; it could affect the Canadian dollar;
15:00 –FOMC Chair Yellen Testifies: Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 11^th;


Thursday, July 17^th

10:00 – EU CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 0.5% during May. The developments in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 4^th; in the recent report the jobless claims declined by 11K to reach 304K;
13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for June 2014; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts falls, gold tends to rise the following day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the past report, housing starts slipped to 1,000K houses;
13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last report, during May, building permits declined to 990K houses. If building permits continues to fall, it may indicate that the U.S housing market is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits update);
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding June, the growth rate slightly rose from +15.4 in May to +17.8 in June. If the index further rallies, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of July 11^th;
23:50 – Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The minutes of BOJ’s monetary policy meeting could offer some insight behind its recent meeting;


Friday, July 18^th

13:30 – Canada Core CPI: This monthly report will show the developments in the CPI and core CPI of Canada for May; in the previous report, the core CPI rose by 0.5%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index slipped to 81.2;

[Samirofi]

Forex Weekly Outlook Jul 28-Aug 1


US Housing data, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, GDP figures in the US and Canada, US rate decision and Non-Farm Payrolls are the main market movers this week. Here is an outlook on the major events coming our way.

Last week, the number of US jobless claims fell to 284K, the lowest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, indicating the labor market recovery is picking up. The 19,000 fall was contrary to analysts’ expectations of a rise to 308,000. The four-week average declined by 7,250 to 302,000, falling to the lowest level since May 2007. The US economy continues to improve suggesting the Fed may raise rates sooner than planned. Will we see a rate hike in 2014?

Let’s start,

1. S Pending Home Sales: Monday, 14:00. The number of contracts to purchase existing U.S. homes surged in May by 6.1%, the biggest climb since April 2010. The reading was far better than the 1.4% addition predicted by analysts, showing a strong rebound in the housing market. Stronger employment conditions as well as cheaper borrowing costs, enable the pick-up in the housing sector. Pending sales are expected to decline 0.2% this time.
2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. U.S. consumer confidence edged up in June to 85.2 following a downwardly revised 82.2 in May, posting the highest reading since January 2008. Economists expected a smaller rise to 83.6. The expectations index increased to 85.2 in June from 83.5 in May, while the current situation index improved to 85.1 versus 80.3 in May. A further rise to 85.5 is expected now.
3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. Private sector employment increased by 281,000 workers in June from 179,000 in May, according to the ADP report. Economists’ expected a modest rise of 207,000 jobs. The strong reading reflects continued strengthening in the labor market with a pick-up in Job creation. Private sector employment is expected to expand by 234,000.
4. US GDP data: Wednesday, 12:30. Advance GDP, the earliest GDP measure released in April showed an annual growth pace of 0.1% in the first quarter, falling behind expectations for a 1.2% climb. Weather conditions and sluggish exports, housing and business investment were the main contributors for the shabby growth rate. The Preliminary GDP reading is predicted to reach 3.1%.
5. FOMC Statement: Wednesday, 18:00. The Fed decisions released in June were in line with market expectations. Rates remained unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25% and taper continued on schedule. The Fed expressed concerned about the elevated unemployment rate, however noted an improvement in economic activity. The Committee voted to maintain accommodative stance of monetary policy to support growth. The FOMC downgraded its GDP forecast due to adverse weather in the first quarter.
6. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canadian GDP Growth stalled in April, inching 0.1% as in the previous month, while expected to rise 0.2%. Wholesale and retail activity edged up mildly, while mining and construction output weakened. On a year-over-year bases gross domestic product expanded 2.1%, the same rate marked in the previous month. Canadian economy is expected to grow by 0.3%.
7. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The US Labor market registered a decline of 19,000 claims for jobless benefits in the previous week; reaching 283,000.Analysts expected a rise to 307,000 in the number of claims. This was the lowest reading since February 2006. The four-week moving average declined by 7,250 to 302,000, from the previous week. This is the lowest average level since May 19, 2007. This week’s reading reinforces views that the US economy is matching forward. The number of unemployment claims is expected to reach 306,000.
8. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Friday, 3:30. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. He may speak about the slowdown in inflation and his plans for the coming months.
9. US Non-Farm Employment Change and US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 12:30. The US labor market showed a remarkable job Addition of 288,000 in June, the strongest reading since January 2012, following a gain of 217,000 in May. Analysts expected a weaker increase of 214,000. This was another sign that the US job market is strengthening parallel to the economic recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 6.3% registered in May, the lowest level since Sep. 2008. Analysts expected rates to remain unchanged at 6.3%. The US labor market is expected to increase by 230,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 6.1%.
10. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. In June, the ISM manufacturing index declined mildly to 55.3, from 55.4% recorded in May. The figure was a little below market forecast of 55.6. However, the index still indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector. Declines in production and in supplier deliveries were the main reason for the lukewarm rise. US manufacturing sector is expected to expand to 56.1.

That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies


*All times are GMT.

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Forecast for July 28- August 1


This week, several U.S economic reports will be published including non-farm payroll, manufacturing PMI, GDP Q2 first estimate, pending home sales, and jobless claims. The FOMC will convene again for the fifth time this year to decide of any changes to its policy. In Europe, the flash estimate of the CPI and the unemployment report will be the main focus. Germany’s retail sales, unemployment and CPI as well as Spain’s GDP for Q2 will also be released. In Canada, its GDP monthly update will be published. China’s manufacturing PMI monthly updates will come out. So let’s break down the economic outlook for the week of July 28^th to August 1^st.


(All times GMT):

Monday, July 28^th

15:00 – U.S Pending Home Sales: This report presents the changes in pending home sales in the U.S during June; in the previous update for May, pending home sales index increased by 6.1% (month-over-month). This report is another signal for the progress of the U.S housing market; if the index keeps rising, it may positively impact the U.S dollar;


Tuesday, July 29^th

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the last update for June, the consumer confidence index rallied to 85.2 (month-over-month). This report may impact the USD;


Wednesday, July 30^th

Tentative – Germany’s Preliminary CPI: In the last CPI report for June 2014, the CPI inched up by 0.3%;
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This report projects the progress of the Swiss economy in the coming months;
08:00 – Spain’s flash GDP Q2 2014: In the last estimate Spain’s GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2014. If the growth rate from doesn’t pick up, this could adversely affect the Euro;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll:ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for July 2014 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – First U.S GDP 2Q 2014 Estimate: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2014 real GDP growth. The first estimate tends to have the strongest impact on the financial market. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP fell by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014. If the US gross domestic product doesn’t pick up, this could negatively affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on July 25^th;
19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The FOMC meeting will take place between July 29^th and 30^th. The FOMC is expected to announce of sixth tapering decision of its QE3 program. This time, however, the FOMC meeting will be accompanied with a press conference. Thus, the meeting is likely to have modest impact on the markets, unless, of course, the FOMC surprises the markets;


Thursday, July 31^st

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the latest report for June 2014, retail sales fell again by 0.6%;
08:55 – Germany’s Unemployment Update: In the previous unemployment update for June 2014, unemployment rose by 9K. The next report might impact the Euro;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for June, the annual CPI rose to 0.5%, which is still well below the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation rate doesn’t rise, this could indicate the EU economy isn’t heating up. These developments could influence the ECB members with respect to ECB’s future cash rate decisions;
10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: Last month’s update presented that the rate of unemployment edged down again to 11.6%. This means the labor market in the Euro Area is only slowly progressing;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for May 2014. In the last update regarding April 2014, the real gross domestic product edged up by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on July 25^th; in the last report the jobless claims fell by 19K to 284K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of July 25^th;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: As of June, the Manufacturing PMI inched up to 51 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing at a faster rate. If in the upcoming report the PMI keeps picking up, it could signal a rise in the progress of China’s manufacturing sectors;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (HSBC’s final estimate): This is HSBC’s last estimate for its July’s PMI index. Last month’s Manufacturing PMI reached 50.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are growing. If the updated PMI index rises again, this will imply China’s manufacturing conditions are improving;
04:30 –BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks: The governor of Bank of Japan will speak at the Research Institute of Japan, in Tokyo;


Friday, August 1^st

09:30 – Spain’s Manufacturing PMI: According to the previous update Spain’s manufacturing index rose to 54.6. This rate gain implies the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: During April, Great Britain’s manufacturing index inched up to 57.5;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report: In the last employment report referring to June 2014, the number of non-farm payroll employment grew by 288K; the U.S unemployment rate remained slipped to 6.1%. In the past five reports, the average growth in employment was well above 200K. If the upcoming report shows another strong gain of over 200K, this could further pull up the USD and slightly bring down the prices of gold and silver;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is another important measure the FOMC follows in assessing the changes in inflation. In the past report, the price index of the PCE rose by 0.2% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) also inched up by a similar rate. On an annual rate, the core PCE increased by only 1.5% – well below the FOMC’s inflation target.
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the recent report, the sentiment index rose to 82.5;
15:00 – U.S Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to July 2014. Back in June, the index inched down to 55.3; this means the manufacturing is expanding at a slightly slower pace; this index may affect stock markets, USD, and crude oil and natural gas markets;