Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Preview for September 28- October 2


The U.S. dollar resumed its upward trend and strengthened against leading currencies including the Euro and Yen. The recent hawkish remarks of FOMC Chair Yellen along with the modest upward revision of the US GDP provided some backwind for greenback. Despite the recovery of the USD, commodities including oil and gold kept climbing in the past week. The high volatility in commodities market could suggest this recent rally of commodities may not last long. This week the main event will be the release of the NFP on Friday. Other report and events include: FOMC Yellen, Dudley and Fischer speak, EU flash CPI, GB GDP for Q2, U.S. factory orders, U.S. consumer confidence, Canada’s GDP, U.S. PCE, GB, China and U.S. manufacturing PMI, and Australian retail sales. So let’s review the main items for the week of September 28^th to October 2^nd.


(All times GMT):

Monday, September 28^th

13:30 – FOMC members Dudley Speaks: He will discuss interest-rate increases and inflation expectations in an interview conducted by WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to analyze the shifts in U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the PCE index increase by 0.3% and the core PCE (excluding food and energy) edged up again by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up again by 0.1% and PCE by 0.3%;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the changes in pending home sales in the U.S during August; in the previous update for July, pending home sales index rose by 0.5% (month-over-month). Currently, the market expects home sales to increase by 0.4% in the last month;


Tuesday, September 29^th

15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the recent report for August, the consumer confidence index rose to 101.5. The current estimates are that the index fell back 96.2;
20:40 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to talk at the Lloyds of London;


Wednesday, September 30^th

07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the last report for August 2015, retail sales increased by 1.4%;
09:30 – Final Estimate of Great Britain GDP Q2 2015: This report will present the final estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for Q2 2015; in the first estimate, the GDP grew by 0.7%; currently, the market estimates the GDP report will show no change in the growth rate;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the recent estimate for August, the annual CPI was unchanged at 0.2%. The core CPI remained at 1%. The current estimates are that the inflation fall to 0% last month, and the core CPI to inch down to 0.9%;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment slipped to 10.9%;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for September 2015 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the changes in major industrial sectors for July 2015. In the previous update regarding June 2015, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.5%; the current expectations are for the GDP to rise by 0.2%;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 25^th;
20:00 – FOMC Chair Yellen Speaks: She is also expected to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve’s annual community banking conference, in St. Louis;


Thursday, October 1^st

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI declined again to 49.7 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting. Current estimates are for no change;
02:45 – China’s Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI: In the previous estimate, the PMI fell again to 47.3; current estimates are for the PMI to decline again to 47.2 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting at a faster rate; it’s less important than the flash estimate but could still keep the markets concern;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in August, Great Britain’s manufacturing index fell to 51.5 – market expectations are that in September the PMI edged down to 51.3;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 25^th; in the recent report, jobless claims rose to 267K; the expectations are for this number to rise to 273K;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to September 2015. In the recent update for August, this index fell to 51.1 — the manufacturing sector is expanding at a slower rate compared to the last month; current estimates are for the PMI to fall again to 50.8;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 25^th;


Friday, October 2^nd

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the last report, the volume of retail trade declined by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the August employment report, the number of non-farm payroll employment rose by only 173K – below market expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate slipped to 5.1%. If the upcoming report presents a stronger than expected gain in employment (current projections are at 202K), this could keep driving up the USD and bring down precious metals;
15:00 – U.S. Factory Orders: This report shows the changes in U.S. factory orders of manufactured durable goods in September; in the July report, factory orders bounced back by 0.4%; current projections are for a 0.9% drop in September;
18:30 – FOMC Member Fischer Speaks: He is due to speak at the Federal Reserve’s Macro-prudential Monetary Policy conference, in Boston;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Preview for October 5-9


Another disappointing non-farm payroll, in which only 142K jobs were added in September. Moreover, there were downward revisions for the two previous months for a total of 59K jobs. This puts into question whether the Fed were to raise rates this year. Besides the echoes of the NFP that will keep resonating in the markets, on this week’s agenda we also have: Minutes of FOMC, BOE, RBA and BOJ monetary policy meetings, Canada’s employment report, U.S. non-manufacturing PMI, U.S. trade balance, and EU economic summit. So let’s breakdown the main events of the week of October 5^th to 9^th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, October 5^th

15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: In the August report, the PMI declined to 59 — the non-manufacturing sector is growing albeit at a slower pace; current estimates are for the PMI to decline again to 58;
All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene to talk about the latest economic developments in the EU;
01:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: In the last report, the deficit in the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services contracted to 2.46 billion Australian dollars; the monthly report will also present the changes in the exports of non-monetary gold (see here the last update);
18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: Draghi is expected to give a speech in Frankfurt;


Tuesday, October 6^th

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last time, RBA didn’t change its cash rate – which is set at 2%. The RBA is expected to maintain its rates unchanged this time as well. But RBA could still surprise and reduce rates or at the very least change the tone of the statement to account for the uncertainty around China’s progress and low metal and energy prices;
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the recent report, factory orders fell by 2% during August; currently, the market expectations are for a modest gain of 0.5% in September;
All Day – EU Economic Summit: The European finance ministers will convene to talk about the latest economic developments in the EU;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous update, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $0.6 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for August will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for July, the goods and services deficit shark to $41.9 billion; current projections are for the deficit to grow to $42.2 billion;


Wednesday, October 7^t
h
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to expand the bank’s asset purchase program or at the very least drop some hints about it in the coming meetings – especially given the lack of growth in Japan’s economy;
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will show the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for August; in the last report regarding July 2015 the index declined by 0.8%; this time, the estimates are for a 0.5% gain;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 2^nd;
00:50 – Japan’s Current Account: This report will present the changes in the difference between imported and exported goods, services, and income flows. In the recent monthly report, the surplus in the current account grew to 1.32 trillion yen;


Thursday, October 8^th

12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: The BOE will also release the policy summary and offer some insight behind the recent decision; last time one member voted against keeping rates low;
12:30 –ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 2^nd; in the recent report, jobless claims increased to 277K; the expectations are for this number to slightly decreased to 274K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 2^nd;
19:00 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to participate in a panel discussion about the global economy at the International Monetary Fund meeting, in Lima;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: Sometimes the minutes are revised to account for the recent economic developments. This time, we may see some reference to the latest NFP report and its impact on the Fed’s decision to keep rates low. Even without revisions, this report is likely to move the market considering the NFP report wasn’t strong, China’s economic turbulence and the uncertainty around the timing of raising rates;


Friday, October 9^th

13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding August, unemployment rose to 7%; the employment, by 12K;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Preview for October 12-16


The minutes of the FOMC didn’t offer much news and left the market guessing as to the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. On this week’s agenda we have the U.S. JOLTS, BOJ’s minutes of last meeting, EU CPI, U.S. PPI, Canada’s manufacturing sales, China’s CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. consumer sentiment, China’s trade balance, OPEC and IEA reports, and U.S. retail sales. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of October 12^th to 16^th:


(All times GMT):

Monday, October 12^th

18:20 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to deliver a speech: “Integrating Financial Stability into Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics, in Washington DC.;
00:50 – BOJ’s policy meeting minutes: The minutes may reveal what’s up ahead for BOJ including whether its members are incline to raise the current QE program in the next meeting at the end of the month;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for September 2015; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month;


Tuesday, September 13^th

Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has expanded last month but is expected to change course again and fall in the upcoming report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;
09:30 – GB CPI: According to the last monthly update, the CPI slipped to 0% in August. The current projections are for the inflation to remained unchanged in September;
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for September. In August, the ZEW indicator for Germany dropped again to 12.1 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment declines again, this may imply a slowdown in the growth of its economy; the current estimates are for a fall to 6.8;
Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show an updated (as of September) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2015 and 2016;


Wednesday, September 14^th

02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 2%; if the annual rate falls, it could signal the Chinese economy is slowly cooling down; the current expectations are for the CPI to inch down to 1.8%; in the meantime, the PPI remains negative at 5.9% — and this month the PPI is expected to remain low at -5.9%;
09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the developments in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the previous report, this index grew by 2.9%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 3.1%;
09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the last monthly report, the number of unemployed in GB rose by 1.2K; the rate of unemployment slipped to 5.5% and is expected to remain at this rate this time;
13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to September; in the previous August update, retail sales rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail, by 0.1%; current expectations are for a 0.1% drop in core retail sales in September;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to September 2015. In last month’s report regarding August, this index for finished goods was flat, m-o-m; the core PPI rose again by 0.3%; current estimates are for the PPI to show a fall of 0.2%;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 9^th;


Thursday, September 15^th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for August the rate of unemployment edged down to 6.2%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 17.4K people. The weakness in China could weaken the Australian labor market, which may prompt the RBA to act (see here the recent report);
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report refer to the changes in the core consumer price index for September 2015. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, back in August, the CPI decreased by 0.1%; the core CPI edged up by 0.1%; this time, the CPI is expected the tick down by 0.2% and core CPI to rise again by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 9^th; in the previous report, jobless claims decreased to 263K; the expectations are for this number to slightly rise to 269K;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the previous survey, the growth rate dropped from +8.3 in August to -6 in September. This time, the index is expected to slightly rise to -1.8 (the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of October 9^th;


Friday, September 16^th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): Based on the flash estimate, the CPI inched down to annual rate of 0.1% in August; the CPI is estimated to have dropped by 0.1% in September;
13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the previous report regarding August 2015, manufacturing sales rose by 1.7%;
14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will show the changes in the U.S industrial production during September; as of August, industrial production slipped by 0.4%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the recent report, the sentiment index dropped to 85.7;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for August, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update for July, the number of jobs opening rose to 5.75 million; current market predictions are for the number to slightly increase to 5.77 million;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Preview for December 21-25


The historic (finally we can retire this characteristic) and expected rate hike decision by the FOMC was finally made last week. The market’s reaction seemed a bit of an anticlimax, given the ample preparation the Fed made before raising rates. Now we can start focusing on the Fed’s rate hike pace and normalization process. This week will be a short one due to Christmas. There are still a few important reports, but for the most part the market will slowly wind down and digest the Fed’s rate hike. Some reports to consider this week include: U.S. GDP for Q3, EU consumer sentiment, GB current account, U.S. core durable goods, Canada GDP, BOJ’s minutes of policy meeting, Canada retail sales, U.S. core PCE, and U.S. new home sales. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of December 21-25.


(All times GMT):

Monday, December 21^st

15:00 – EU consumer Sentiment (final): Based on the latest report, the Euro Area consumer indicator rose by 1.6 to points -6 and is expected to remain unchanged this time;


Tuesday, December 22^nd

09:30 – Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing: Based on the last update, public net borrowing dropped to a surplus of 7.5 billion pounds; this measures the gap between spending and income for public corporations, the central government and local governments; current expectations are for a shift to a higher surplus of 11.9 billion pounds;
13:30 – Third and Final Estimate of U.S GDP for 3Q 2015: This will be the last estimate of U.S’s third quarter 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q3 the GDP grew by 3.9% — marginally higher than expected. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to change course and fall back to 1.9%. A lower than expected growth rate could drag down the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will pertain to the U.S. existing home sales for November 2015; in the October report, the number of homes sold fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.36 million houses; the current expectations are for the annual rate to decline to 5.32 million houses;


Wednesday, December 23^rd

09:30 – GB Current Account: According to the recent report, Great Brittan’s current account showed a lower deficit of 16.8 billion pounds. The current estimates are that the deficit will expand to 21.3 billion pounds;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales: In the last report regarding October 2015, manufacturing sales declined by 0.5%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report shows the developments in major industrial sectors for October 2015. In the previous update regarding September 2015, the real gross domestic product dropped by 0.5%;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This will refer to November’s figures and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of October 2015, core durable goods rose by 0.5%, month over month; this time, however, core durable goods are expected to inch up by 0.1%;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the progress in U.S. inflation. In the recent report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) remained unchanged. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up by 0.1%;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to November; in the latest report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes increased to an annual rate of 495,000; current estimates are for a faster growth with an annual rate of 507,000;
15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index rose to 91.3;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 18^th;
23:50 – BOJ’s policy meeting minutes: Bank of Japan will release the minutes of the last policy meeting. It may show what’s up ahead for the BOJ in terms of when and if its members plan to expand QE anytime soon;


Thursday, December 24^th

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 18^th; in the recent report, jobless claims declined to 271K; the expectations are for this number to remained nearly unchanged at 270K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 18^th;


Friday, December 25^th

Christmas Day

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Preview for December 28-31


As the year winding down, markets are likely to experience another slow week with little movement and low trading volume across the financial markets. This short week includes several reports that will be published including: China manufacturing PMI, Japan’s retail sales, U.S. pending home sales, EU monetary development, U.S. consumer confidence. So let’s review the main reports for the week of December 28^th to 31^st.


(All times GMT):

Monday, December 28^th
23:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for November 2015, retail sales rose by 1.8%;


Tuesday, December 29^th
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the last report for November, consumer confidence index fell again to 90.4;


Wednesday, December 30^th
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of November 2015. In the October report, the annual growth rate for M3 rose to 5.3%;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during November; in the previous update for October, pending home sales index inched up by 0.2% (month-over-month);
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 24^th;


Thursday, December 31^st
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 24^th; in the recent report, jobless claims slipped to 267K;
02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: The Manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.6 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting at a faster pace;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Outlook for January 4-8


The first week of the year is upon us. This means markets return to function normally. This week entails several important reports that could drive back up market volatility. Some of these reports include: The U.S. NFP report, minutes of FOMC meeting, China’s manufacturing PMI, German factory orders, U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, EU’s flash CPI, and Australia’s retail sales. So let’s breakdown the main reports for the week of January 4^th to 8^th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, January 4^th

02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the recent estimate, the PMI rose to 48.6; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 48.9 – the manufacturing conditions are still contracting, albeit at a slower pace;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for November 2015, retail sales slipped by 0.4%;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in November, Great Britain’s manufacturing index slipped to 52.7 – manufacturing is still expanding albeit at the slower pace;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to December 2015. In the recent update for November, this index declined to 48.6 — the manufacturing sector is contracting; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 49.1 – indicating the manufacturing conditions are still unfavorable;


Tuesday, January 5^th

08:55 – German Unemployment: Last month, unemployment fell by 13K;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for November, the annual CPI inched up to 0.1%. The core CPI rose to 0.9%;


Wednesday, January 6^th

13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will publish its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for December 2015 that will be published on Friday;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance grew to $2.8 billion;
13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for November will present the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update for October, the goods and services deficit expanded to $43.9 billion;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in November, the PMI declined to 55.9– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on December 30^th;
19:00 – Minutes of FOMC Meeting: The minutes will provide another look regarding the Fed’s recent hike decision. And more importantly take the temperature of FOMC members with respect to future rate rises;


Thursday, January 7^th

00:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: According to the previous report, the deficit rose to $3.31 billion;
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the previous report, factory orders increased by 1.8% during November; currently, the market expectations are for a gain of 0.1% in December;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment inched down again to 10.7%;
13:25 – BOE Gov Carney Speaks: He is expected to talk at the Ottawa Business Journal and Chamber of Commerce Mayor’s Breakfast Series;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on December 30^th; in the last report, jobless claims rose to 287K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of December 30^th;


Friday, January 8^th

01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade increased again by 0.5%;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment update regarding November, unemployment edged up to 7.1%; the employment decreased by 35.7K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report 211K jobs were added – slightly above expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5%. If the upcoming report shows another stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 202K), this could further pull up the USD;
02:30 – China’s CPI: According to the latest update, the CPI rose to an annual rate of 1.5%; if the annual rate changes course and falls, it could signal the Chinese economy isn’t heating up;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Preview for January 11-15


The NFP report was much better than expected with headline figure of 292K jobs – the expectations were set much lower at 203K. But market concerns over China’s economic woes kept weighing on equities and commodities. On this week’s agenda: U.S. JOLTS, BOE rate decision, Japan’s current account, U.S. PPI, U.S. consumer sentiment, GB manufacturing PMI, Australia’s employment report, U.S. industrial production and retail sales. So let’s review the economic calendar for the week of January 11^th to 15^th:


(All times GMT):

Tuesday, January 12^th

09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This report will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production for November; in the last report regarding October 2015 the index declined by 0.4%; this time, the estimates are for a 0.1% gain;
15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for November, excluding the farming industry; in the previous update for October, the number of jobs opening slipped to 5.38 million; in the next report, the number is expected to reach 5.41 million;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade balance surplus has contracted last month and is expected to moderately fall again in the upcoming report; this update provides another indication for the economic activity in the world’s second largest economy;


Wednesday, January 13^th

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 8^th;


Thursday, January 14^th

02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the recent report for November the rate of unemployment declined to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) increased by 71.4K people. The weakness in the commodities markets and China’s economic woes could adversely impact the Australian’s economy (see here the recent report);
13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to change its policy but the policy summery will be released and could offer some insight behind what’s next for the Bank’s monetary policy. The main takeaway will be the vote count and whether there will be, yet again, a dissenter to the vote;
13:30 – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: The ECB will release the minutes of the last meeting from December; this report, however, isn’t likely to hit too many waves considering they refer to a policy change from a month and a half ago;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 8^th; in the recent report, jobless claims slipped to 277K and is expected to remain unchanged this week – the outlook is at 278K;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 8^th;


Friday, January 15^th

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refer to December; in the last November update, retail sales rose by 0.2% (month-over-month); core retail, by 0.4%; this will be among the main reports that will show how strong December sales were compared to previous years;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to December 2015. In recent month’s report regarding November, this index for finished goods rose by 0.3%, m-o-m; the core PPI, by 0.3%; this will serve as a preview for the CPI report for next week;
14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during December; as of November, industrial production fell by 0.6%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index declined to 91.8;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Outlook for January 25-29

Another turbulent week ended with falling and then rising equities and commodities prices – mostly oil. Well, this week isn’t likely to be much different so expect more high volatility on all fronts. The main events of the week come from the U.S. including FOMC meeting and GDP for Q4. Also, consumer confidence and housing data will be released. There are two more central bank rate decisions including by BOJ. And in Europe, the flash CPI, German business climate, EU monetary development, GB GDP for Q4 are the main reports. So let’s breakdown the main items for the week of January 25-29.

(All times GMT):

Monday, January 25^th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: The index comprises of the difference (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of January. In the December report, the business climate index edged down to 108.7; currently, the market expects a modest slide to 108.5;
18:00 – ECB President Draghi Speaks: He’s expected to speak at the Deutsche Borse New Year’s reception, in Frankfurt;

Tuesday, January 26^th
10:45 – BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Carney is expected to testify on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee, in London;
15:00 – U.S. Consumer Confidence: According to the latest report for December, consumer confidence index bounced back to 96.5. The current estimates are that the index inch up to 96.6;

Wednesday, January 27^th
00:30 – Australia’s CPI: According to the previous quarterly update, the CPI slipped to 0.5%, Q-o-Q. The current expectations are for the next report to show another fall to 0.3% quarterly pace;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to December; in the previous report (opens pdf), the sales of new homes declined to an annual rate of 490,000; current estimates are for a faster growth with an annual rate of 503,000;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 22^nd;
23:50 – Japan’s Retail Sales: In the previous report for December 2015, retail sales declined by 1%;
19:30 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: This is the first meeting of the year and considering the bearish market sentiment, strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar and concerns over China’s economic woes, the Fed is likely to refer to all these issues in this meeting. This meeting doesn’t include a press conference or revised outlook, so the statement will be the main event. Given the current market sentiment, people expect a dovish statement and perhaps a bit of backpedaling from the Fed’s previous hawkish statement;

Thursday, January 28^th
09:30 – Flash Great Britain GDP Q4 2015: This report will refer to the first estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the fourth quarter of 2015; current projections are for a 0.5% gain;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 22^nd; in the previous report, jobless claims rose to 293K; the expectations are for this number to fall to 281K;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This monthly report refer to December and will indicate the developments in U.S demand for commodities including oil and gas. As of November 2015, core durable goods slipped by 0.1%, month over month; this time, however, core durable goods are expected to remain flat;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the developments in pending home sales in the U.S during December; in the previous update for November, pending home sales index declined by 0.9% (month-over-month); this time, however, the index is expected to rise by 1.1%;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 22^nd;

Friday, January 29^th
Tentative – Japan’s rate decision, press conference and updated outlook: In the upcoming Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will review the bank’s monetary policy and whether it’s time to increase the bank’s asset purchase program. The bank will also release its revised outlook about the economy. Given the recent strength of the Japanese yen, the BOJ may decide to step up and introduce more stimulus or at the very least imply if there is more stimulus to come in the near term;
07:00 – Germany’s Retail Sales: In the recent report for December 2015, retail sales rose by 0.2%;
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly report will pertain to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of November 2015. In the October report, the annual growth rate for M3 inched down to 5.1%; current estimates are for the growth rate of M3 to slightly rise to 5.2%;
10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the yearly consumer price index of the Euro Area. According to the last estimate for December, the annual CPI inched up to 0.2%. The core CPI remained at 0.9%;
13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: This monthly report presents the developments in major industrial sectors for November 2015. In the previous update regarding October 2015, the real gross domestic product was 0%;
13:30 – First Estimate of U.S GDP for 4Q 2015: This will be the first estimate of U.S’s Q4 2015 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate for Q3 the GDP grew by 2% — not far off expectations. The current estimates are for the GDP growth rate to fall to 0.8%. A better than expected growth rate could drive higher the U.S. dollar, equities and commodities;
15:00 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised): University of Michigan will release its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could provide information regarding the changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the last report, the sentiment index rose to 92.6;

[Samirofi]

Financial Market Outlook for February 1-5


The recent rally in the stock market has eased the concerns over the prospects of a bear market in equities. But this could all change if U.S. and China’s economic reports show signs of slowdown. This week the focus will be on U.S. NFP report and China’s manufacturing PMI. Other reports to consider include: German factory orders, U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, Canada’s employment, U.S. factory orders, EU’s unemployment, U.S. PCE, and two rate decisions by BOE and RBA. So let’s breakdown the main events for the week of February 1^st to 5^th.


(All times GMT):

Monday, February 1^st
02:45 – China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI: In the previous report, the PMI slipped to 48.2; current estimates are for the PMI to inch down to 48.1 – the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a faster pace;
09:30 – GB Manufacturing PMI: back in December, Great Britain’s manufacturing index declined to 51.9 – manufacturing is still expanding albeit at the slower rate; this time, the PMI is expected to slip to 51.8;
13:30 – U.S. core PCE: The personal consumption expenditures index is an important indicator the FOMC follows to determine the changes in U.S. inflation. In the last report, the core PCE (excluding food and energy) inched up by 0.1%. The expectations are for the core PCE to edge up again by 0.1%;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: This report will refer to January 2016. In the recent update for December, this index declined to 48.2 — the manufacturing sector is contracting; current estimates are for the PMI to rise to 48.6 – indicating the manufacturing conditions are still shirking but at a slower rate;
16:00 – ECB President Draghi testifies: He is expected to testify about the 2015 ECB Annual Report before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg;

Tuesday, February 2^nd
05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: Last month, RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 2%. The RBA is expected to maintain its rates flat this time as well;
10:00 – EU Unemployment: Last month, the rate of unemployment inched down again to 10.5%; it is estimated to remain unchanged;
Wednesday, February 3^rd
00:30 – Australia’s Trade Balance: According to the previous report, the deficit slipped to $2.91 billion;
13:15 – ADP estimate of U.S. non-farm payroll: ADP will release its estimate for the next U.S non-farm payroll changes for January 2016 that will be published on Friday;
15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Back in December, the PMI declined to 55.3– the non-manufacturing sector is growing at a slower pace. And it’s estimated to reach 55.2 in the next report;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on January 29^th;

Thursday, February 4^th
08:00 – ECB President Draghi speaks: He is expected to speak at the Deutsche Bundesbank’s Marjolin Lecture, in Frankfurt;
13:00 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2016 and 2017;
13:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England isn’t expected to raise rates. The main takeaway will be the vote count and whether there will be, yet again, a dissenter to the vote;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on January 29^th; in the previous report, jobless claims declined to 278K; in the upcoming report, estimates are for 286K claims;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of January 29^th;

Friday, February 5^th
01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report referring to the Bank’s monetary policy;
01:30 – Australia’s Retail Sales: In the recent report, the volume of retail trade increased again by 0.4%;
08:00 – German Factory Orders: In the last report, factory orders increased by 1.5% during December; currently, the market expectations are for a fall of 0.4% in January;
13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the recent employment update regarding December, unemployment remained flat at 7.1%; employment increased by 22.8K;
13:30 – U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Update: In the previous employment report 292K jobs were added – much more than expectations; the U.S. unemployment rate remained flat at 5%. If the upcoming report shows doesn’t show a stronger than expected growth in employment (current projections are at 192K), this could bring down the USD;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report, the deficit in the trade balance shrank to $2.0 billion;