Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 5-9

Last week the Aussie dollar tumbled down while the Euro remained nearly unchanged against the USD. In the commodities market, silver and crude oil rallied while gold and natural gas declined. In the upcoming week several reports, decisions and events will unfold and may affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: U.S non- manufacturing PMI, China’s CPI, Japan’s current account, BOJ monetary policy meeting, Australia’s trade balance, U.S and Canada’s trade balance reports, German Industrial production, Bank of England Carney Speaks, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of August 5^th to August 9^th regarding the U.S, Japan, China, Euro Area, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):


Monday, August 5^th


00:30 – Australian Retail Sales: This monthly report will pertain to June 2013. In the previous update, the seasonally adjusted retail sales slightly rose by 0.1% during May; this news may affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be correlated with commodities rates;


09:30 – GB Services PMI: In the previous report, this index rose to 56.9%; this index may affect the British Pound;


15:00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This monthly update will refer to the developments in the non-manufacturing sector for July 2013. In the previous update, this index slipped to 52.2% – thus, the non-manufacturing is still expanding but at a slower rate than in the previous month; this index may affect the US dollar;

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Tuesday, August 6^th


02:30 – Australian Trade Balance: Thus upcoming report will pertain to June’s figures. In the last update, regarding May, the seasonally adjusted balance of goods and services rose to a $670 million surplus. The export of non-monetary gold increased by $135 million; if the gold exports will continue to increase in June, it might suggest a rise in demand for non-monetary gold (see here latest update);


05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Cash Rate Statement: In the latest rate decision of RBA it left the cash rate at 2.75% – its lowest level in years, which contributed to decline of the Aussie dollar. The current expectations are that RBA will cut the interest rate again by 0.25 percentage points, which is likely to keep the Aussie weak against leading currencies. In such an event the Australian dollar, which tends to be strongly correlated with oil and gold prices, may drag down commodities rates;


09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This update will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of June; in the previous report regarding May 2013 the index fell by 0.8% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;


13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly update for June will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the recent American trade balance update regarding May the goods and services deficit expanded to $45 billion;


13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding May 2013, exports slipped to 1.6% and imports decreased by 3.2%; as a result, the trade balance’s deficit fell from $951 million in April to $303 million in May; this report may affect the Canadian dollar which tends to be correlated with commodities;

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Wednesday, August 7^th


10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will publish this quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation projection for 2013 and 2014;


10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will hold a press conference regarding the Inflation Report and the Bank’s projections for the economic growth in the coming years;


11:00 – German Industrial Production: The upcoming report will refer to July 2013. In the last update, the industrial production fell by 1% during June;


15:00 – Canada’s Ivey PMI: This report shows the diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers; in last month’s update, the index plummeted to 55.3. The report might affect the Canadian dollar;


Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: the U.S government will come out with its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held at the second week of July, the average rate reached 2.67% – the highest rate in recent months;


15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 2^nd;

Tentative – Japan’s monetary policy meeting and press conference:Japan’s monetary policy meeting will be held on that day. BOJ members will decide on any shifts to the bank’s current asset purchase program. These decisions could affect the direction of the Japanese yen;

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Thursday, August 8^th


Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the recent monthly report, China’s trade balance increased again to a $27.1 billion surplus; if the surplus will further rise, it could indicate that China’s economic growth is improving and thus may positively affect commodities;


00:50 – Japan Current Account: this monthly report will show the developments in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the direction of the Japanese Yen;


02:30 – Australia Employment Report: in the last report regarding June 2013 the rate of unemployment rose to 5.7%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly rose by 10,300 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);


09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for July analyzes the economic developments of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the forecasts of the EU progress;


13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will refer to the developments in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 2^nd; in the latest report the jobless claims fell by 19k to reach 326k; this upcoming weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;


15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report regarding U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 2^nd; in latest weekly update, natural gas storage rose by 59 Bcf to 2,845 Bcf;


Tentative – China’s CPI: during May, the Chinese inflation rate rose to an annual rate of 2.7%, which is still lower than China’s target inflation. The low inflation is another indication for China’s economic slowdown. If the inflation will continue to pick up, however, this may indicate China’s economic progress is warming up;

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Friday, August 9^th


Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent developments in China’s new loans. Based on the recent report, the total loans sharply increased rose again; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;


01:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy Statement: The RBA will publish its quarterly report regarding the Bank’s monetary policy;


06:30 –China’s Industrial Production: According to last month’s report, China production growth rate slipped to 8.9% in annual terms; if the growth rate will further fall it suggest China’s economy isn’t progressing as fast as it did;


08:45 – French Industrial Production: This upcoming report will pertain to July’s figures. In the latest update, the industrial production slipped by 0.4% during June;


Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: this monthly update will show the developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand worldwide during July 2013; this update will also refer to the changes in the production of OPEC countries during last month; this news may affect oil prices;


Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Report: the upcoming monthly report will show a revised (as of May) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;


13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the latest employment update for June 2013, unemployment remained unchanged at 7.1%; the employment slipped by 0.4k during the month. The upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;

good luck - Khalil Abdolrahman

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 12-16


The commodities markets are starting to pull up: Last week leading commodities including gold and silver rallied. Further, leading currencies including Aussie dollar and Japanese yen also appreciated against the US dollar during last week. Will the US dollar continue to weaken? Will commodities further advance their rally? This week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: BOE rate decision, U.S core CPI and PPI, Philly fed survey, Japan’s GDP for the second quarter, U.S housing starts, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB CPI, U.S retail sales, U.S federal budget update, German ZEW economic sentiment, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of August 12^th to August 16^th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, Japan, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, August 12^th

00:50 –Japan Second Quarter GDP 2013 (preliminary): During the first quarter of 2013, Japan’s GDP grew by 4.1% in annual terms. The current expectations are that the second quarter of 2013 grew in annul terms at a faster pace than in the preceding quarter; if the growth rate will continue to rise, this may positively affect commodities prices;

19:00 –U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to July 2013; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the changes in U.S dollar. In the recent report regarding June the deficit fell by $116.5 billion; if the deficit will continue to contract, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision about future budget cuts;

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Tuesday, August 13^th


00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan didn’t change it monetary policy. The minutes may offer insight regarding behind the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yen and consequently commodities prices;


09:30 – GB CPI (July 2013): In the previous report regarding June 2013, the CPI increased again to an annual rate of 2.9%; if the inflation rate will continue to advance it may eventually affect the decision of BOE regarding changes to its monetary policy;


10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The forthcoming report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for July. In June, the ZEW indicator for Germany decreased to 36.3 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment will keep falling, the Euro will plausibly weakened against other currencies including the US dollar;


10:00 –EU Industrial Production: this report will show the monthly changes in the industrial production as of July; as of June, the production fell by 0.3%; this report may affect the euro/usd;


13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: the retail sales rose again by 0.6% from the last month; gasoline stations sales also increased by 0.7% in June compared to May 2013; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect U.S oil prices;

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Wednesday, August 14^th


09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of last month, the number of unemployed in GB had declined by 21.2k; the rate of unemployment remained flat at 7.8%;


09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: in the previous MPC meeting, the Bank left the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;


10:00 –EU Second Quarter GDP 2013 (preliminary): In the first quarter of 2013, the EU economy contracted by 0.2%. If the EU economy will continue to contract, this could drag down the Eur;


Tentative – German 10 Year Bond Auction: the German government will have its monthly bond auction; in the last bond auction, which was held at the middle of July, the average rate reached 1.57% – its highest level since this year;


13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report will present the developments in the PPI during July 2013, i.e. the inflation rate from the producers’ side. In the last report regarding June, this index for finished goods rose by 0.8% compared with May’s level and the core PPI by 0.2%; this news might affect commodities prices;



15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 9^th;

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Thursday, August 15^th


09:30 – GB Retails Sales (July 2013): This report shows the changes in the retails sales in Great Britain for July 2013. It may affect the path of the British Pound currency. In the previous report regarding June 2013, retails sales slightly rose by 0.2%;


13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 9^th; in the last report the jobless claims rose by 5k to reach 333k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;


13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report will refer to the main developments in the core consumer price index for July 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during June, the CPI rose by 0.5% (month-over-month); the core CPI edged up by 0.2%; the core index increased over the past twelve months by 1.6%.


14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will present the shifts the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for June 2013. In the recent report regarding May 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $27.2 billion;


15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the recent survey regarding July, the growth rate rose again from +12.5 in June to +19.8 in July. If the index will continue to recover, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the previous Philly Fed review);


15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 9^th;


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Friday, August 16^th


10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the latest update the annual CPI rose to 1.6%, which is still below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will continue to rise, it could lower the odds of ECB cutting again its cash rate;


13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (June 2013): This report will refer to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of June. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding May 2013, manufacturing sales increased by 0.7%;


13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will come out with its U.S housing starts monthly update for July 2013; this report was historically linked withgold price – as housing starts falls, gold prices tended to rise the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the latest monthly report, the adjusted annual rate reached 836,000 in June 2013, which was 9.9% below May’s rate;


13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the previous update, during May building permits declined by 7.5% (M-o-M) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 911,000. If building permits will continue to dwindle, it may indicate that the U.S housing market’s recovery (from this aspect) is slowing down (the recent U.S building permits update);


14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous update, the sentiment index rallied to 83.9.


good - luck

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 19-23


The commodity markets are heating up this summer, while the forex market is cooling down. During last week, gold, silver, natural gas and oil bounced back and rallied. Will these commodities’ rally persist this week? This forthcoming week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: Minutes of the FOMC meeting, U.S new and existing home sales, minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting, Canada’s retail sales, China, France and Germany’s manufacturing PMI, GB GDP for the second quarter of 2013, Japan’s trade balance, Jackson Hall conference, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of August 19^th to August 23^rd referring to the recent developments in the U.S, Euro Area, Canada, Japan, China, Australia, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 19th

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In June 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit tumbled down by 23% compared to May, and reach 598 billion yen (roughly $6.04 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This is drop in deficit was due to the decline in imports (by 1.7%) and the rise in exports (by 1.1%). Japan is among the leading importers countries of commodities, including oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information regarding Japan’s developments in demand for goods and services;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its interest rate by 0.25pp to 2.50%; the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some additional information behind its latest decision; this news may affect the Australian dollar and consequently commodities prices;


Tuesday, August 20th

13:00 – German PPI: This report will refer to the monthly change in PPI for July 2013. Based on the recent report for June, the PPI remained unchanged. This report might affect the direction of the Euro, which is also correlated with commodities prices;


Wednesday, August 21st

09:30 – Great Britain Net borrowing: this report will refer to the monthly changes in the public sector net borrowing for July 2013; as of June 2013, the net borrowing reached £10.2 billion;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report shows the developments in U.S. existing home sales during July 2013; in the recent report regarding June 2013 the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million houses; if this trend will persist, it might affect the U.S dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 17th;

19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which the Fed kept its monetary policy unchanged, the prices of gold and silver rallied. The big question will remain whether the Fed will start tapering QE3 in the near future. The upcoming minutes might offer some insight behind the next move of the Fed and whether it will announce of tapering its asset purchase program in the September meeting. Considering the slowdown in growth of the job market, the low inflation, and the moderate sign of growth in other facets of the economy the Fed may decide to keep QE3 unchanged this year. In such a case, the recent rally of gold and silver prices may reach a halt;


Thursday, August 22nd

02:45 – China flash Manufacturing PMI: this index is based on a survey covering 800 companies in 20 industries in China; in the latest HSBC Manufacturing PMI survey referring to July 2013 the Manufacturing PMI fell again to 47.7; this index indicates China’s manufacturing sectors are contracting at a slightly faster rate than in June; if the index will keep contracting, this may adversely affect commodities and risk related currencies such as Aussie dollar;

09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the previous monthly report regarding July 2013, the German PMI rose to 50.3 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are expanding after they had contracted a month earlier. This report serves as an indicator to the economic development of the Euro Area’s leading economies’ manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities;

13:30 – Canada Retails Sales (June 2013): This report will pertain to the retails sales in Canada as of June. In the latest report regarding May 2013, retails sales rose by 1.2%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 17th; in the latest report the jobless claims fell by 15k to reach 335k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities prices;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: the EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of August 17th; in latest weekly update, natural gas storage rose again by 65 Bcf to 3,006 Bcf;

All Day – Jackson Hall Symposium: This will be a three day Symposium conducted by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City to be held in Jackson Hall Wyoming. The Symposium will be pertaining to the U.S monetary policy;


Friday, August 23rd

09:30 – Second estimate of GB GDP Q2 2013: This report will show the revised estimate of the quarterly growth rate of the British economy for the second quarter of 2013; during the first quarter the GB economy expanded by 0.3% (Q-2-Q); in the first estimate, Q2 GDP expanded by 0.6%; if the growth rate will remain at the first estimate’s level or higher, it could positively affect GB pound;

13:00 – Canada’s core CPI: This report refers to the CPI and core consumer price index (controlling the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables) for July 2013. Based on the latest Canadian CPI report for June, the core CPI edged down by 0.2%. This report might affect the Canadian dollar, which is also strongly linked with crude oil prices;

15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to July 2013; in the latest report (opens pdf; for June), the sales of new homes slightly rose to an annual rate of 497,000 – a 8.3% gain (month- over-month); if the number of home sales will keep rising, it may suggest the housing market in the U.S continues to improving; this news may also affect the US dollar;mports

Good Luck

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for August 26-30


Major commodities including gold, silver and natural gas rallied again during last week. Equities markets also made a bit of comeback as major indexes including the S&P500 rose. In the forex market, however, there was a mixed trend as the Euro rallied against the USD while Aussie and Japanese yen fell against the USD. This week, several reports, speeches and events will could affect commodities, equities and forex markets; these include: Carney’ speech, U.S core durable goods report, China manufacturing PMI, U.S consumer confidence, Canada’s GDP, U.S’s GDP second quarter estimate, Germany’s employment situation, U.S pending home sales, German retail sales, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of August 26th to August 30th referring to U.S, China, Euro Area, Australia, Canada, and Great Britain.

(All times GMT):

Monday, August 26th

13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will refer to July 2013. This monthly report may indirectly indicate the shifts in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of June 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods increased to $496.7 billion; if this report will show another increase in new orders then it could pull up not only the USD but also commodities prices;


Tuesday, August 27th

09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises the developments (on a monthly basis) of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of August. In the recent report for July 2013, the business climate index inched up from 105.9 in June to 106.2 in July; if this trend will continue, it might positively affect the Euro;

15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: According to the latest monthly update, for May, the consumer confidence index fell to 80.3 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the July index may change direction and rise; this report might affect commodities prices including the oil and natural gas;


Wednesday, August 28th

09:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey estimates Germany’s consumers’ economic climate including past and future economic conditions (on a monthly basis) for August. In the latest report for July 2013, the climate index slightly rose to 7;

09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will refer to the changes of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area for July 2013. In the previous June report, the annual growth rate for M3 declined to 2.3%; M1 fell to 7.5%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -1.6%. This news suggests the EU inflation is falling again as loans continue to fall and the growth rate of M1 and M3 decrease. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect the ECB rate decisions in the following months;

12:45 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will speak at the East Midlands Conference Centre, in Nottingham;

15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report presents the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S for July; in the recent report, the pending home sales index slipped by 0.4% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the changes in U.S’s housing market; if the housing data will show additional decline in sales it may pull back the U.S dollar;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 25th; the changes in stockpiles could affect the direction of crude oil price in the U.S;

02:30 – Australia Private New Capital Expenditure: This quarterly update shows the changes in the private new capital expenditures and expected expenditures for the second quarter of 2013. As of the previous quarter, the seasonal adjusted total of new capital expenditure tumbled down by 4.7% (Q-o-Q) and by 4.4% compared to the previous quarter in 2012. If this downward trend will continue, it may adversely affect the Aussie dollar, which tends to be strongly correlated with major commodities;


Thursday, August 29th

08:55 – German Unemployment Rate: During last month the unemployment slipped; the developments in the German workforce could affect the Euro/USD currency pair;

13:30 – Second U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate: This will be the second estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the previous estimate the U.S GDP rose by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2013. If the growth rate for the second quarter will be revised by a large margin, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities prices;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: this weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 25th; in the latest report the jobless claims rose by 13k to 336k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: the EIA weekly report on U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest shifts in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 25th; this news may affect the direction of natural gas prices;


Friday, August 30th

07:00 – German Retail Sales: This monthly update will present the changes in German retail sales during July. In June 2013, retail sales changed direction and fell by 1.5% – lower than many had expected; if this report will show another drop in sales then it might weakened the Euro;

08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: this monthly report measures the estimate to the Swiss economy in the coming months;

10:00 – EU CPI Flash Estimate: This index estimates the annual consumer price index of the Euro members. According to the previous estimate, the annual CPI reached 1.6%, which is still much lower than the ECB’s target inflation of 2%. If the inflation will start to pick up, it could indicate the EU economy is slowly picking up. These developments could influence the ECB when it’s time to decide on its interest rate; this news could affect the Euro/USD currency pair;

10:00 – EU Unemployment Rate: This report estimates the progress of the EU economy from the labor point of view. Last month’s report showed the rate of unemployment remained flat at 12.1%, which is still a high rate. If this downward trend will persist, it could positively affect the Euro;

13:30 – Canada’s GDP by Industry: this monthly update shows the developments in major industrial sectors for June 2013. In the latest report regarding May 2013, the real gross domestic product rose by 0.2%. This report may affect the direction of the Canadian dollar, which is strongly linked with major commodities rates;

13:30 – U.S Personal spending: this monthly report will refer to the shifts in income and outlays in the U.S during July; in the last report regarding June the personal income rose by 0.3%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised):University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the recent developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the latest report, the sentiment index increased to 85.1;

02:00 – China Manufacturing PMI: Last month’s report regarding July 2013 the Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding at a slightly faster pace; in the latest flash PMI report, the index rose to above the 50 point market. If in the upcoming report the PMI will keep rising, it could signal growth in China’s economic development. If the index will rise, this may positively affect leading commodities prices.


Good Luck

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 16-20


Leading commodities prices have changed direction and tumbled down during last week: Oil, gold and silver plummeted last week after they had rallied during most of August. The highly anticipated FOMC meeting will take place this week and could stir up the financial markets including forex, commodities and stocks. Will the FOMC start tapering QE3? How will the financial markets react to this news? Besides the FOMC meeting, there are additional reports and events that may affect the financial markets. These include: EU CPI, German ZEW economic sentiment, U.S core CPI, Philly fed survey, Japan’s trade balance, U.S housing starts, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB CPI, U.S existing home sales, minutes of RBA, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of September 16^th to September 20^th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.

All times GMT):

Monday, September 16^th

10:00 – Euro Area CPI: According to the recent update the annual CPI remained at 1.6%, which is still below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation will pick up, it could reduce the odds of ECB cutting again its cash rate;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly developments in the industrial production as of August; as of July, the production remained flat; this report may affect the USD currency;

00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate at 2.50%; the minutes of the recent monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest decision; this news may affect the Australian dollar and consequently oil and gold prices;

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Tuesday, September 17^th

09:30 – GB CPI (August 2013): In the previous report regarding July 2013, the CPI inched down to an annual rate of 2.8%; if the inflation rate continues to fall, it may eventually affect the decision of BOE regarding its monetary policy;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for August. In July, the ZEW indicator for Germany bounced back to 42 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment will keep improving, the Euro will plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (July 2013): This report refers to manufacturing sales in Canada as of July. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly linked with commodities. In the recent report regarding June 2013, manufacturing sales decreased by 0.5%;

13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertains to the main developments in the core consumer price index for August 2013. Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during July, the CPI inched up by 0.2% (month-over-month); the core CPI also edged up by 0.2%; the core index increased over the past twelve months by 1.7%.

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly report will present the changes the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for July 2013. In the recent report regarding June 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $66.9 billion;

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Wednesday, September 18^th

09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the recent MPC meeting, the Bank kept the rate flat at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will present how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will publish its U.S housing starts monthly update for August 2013; this report was historically correlated withgold price – as housing starts rise, gold prices tended to decline the next day (even when controlling to the U.S dollar effect); in the recent monthly report, the adjusted annual rate reached 896,000 in July 2013, which was 5.9% above June’s rate;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the latest update, during June building permits rose by 2.7% (M-o-M) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 943,000. If building permits continue to rise, it may indicate that the U.S housing market’s recovery (from this aspect) is pulling up (the recent U.S building permits update);

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 14^th;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The highly anticipated sixth FOMC meeting this year will take place during September 17^th and 18^th. The FOMC will decide whether it will start taper QE3. Many analysts expect the FOMC to start taper its long term treasury bonds purchase program by $15 billion a month. The total asset purchase program, in this case, will remain at $70 billion a month. Considering the little effect the treasury bonds purchase program has had on the economy and the slow progress of the labor market, the FOMC might decide to take different measures to stimulate the economy, such as revising up the inflation target, increasing the mortgage backed securities purchase program, or pegging the long term interest rates (10 years) at 2.5%. If the Fed introduces new measures, this could drag back down the USD. If the Fed only reduces QE3, it is likely to pull up USD and drag down gold and silver prices. If the Fed won’t introduce any changes to its monetary policy, gold and silver prices might bounce back. In any case, the FOMC’s statement, outlook and press conference that follow are likely to move the forex, stocks and commodities markets;

23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: In July 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit bounced back by 42.3% compared to June, and reach 944 billion yen (roughly $9.48 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This rise in deficit was due to the increase in imports (by 2.7%) and the fall in exports (by 1.8%). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and silver; its trade balance could offer information regarding Japan’s changes in demand for goods and services;

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Thursday, September 19^th

08:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: The Swiss National Bank will come out with its Libor rate decision; this decision could affect not only currencies markets but also commodities markets, assuming, the bank changes its Libor rate;

09:30 – GB Retails Sales (August 2013): This report presents the developments in the retails sales in Great Britain for August 2013. It may affect the British Pound currency. In the recent report regarding July 2013, retails sales increased by 1.1%;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 14^th; in the recent report the jobless claims plunged by 31k to reach 292k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report presents the developments in U.S. existing home sales during August 2013; in the previous report regarding July 2013 the number of homes sold rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million houses; if this trend persist, it might affect the U.S dollar;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the latest survey regarding August, the growth rate fell from +19.8 in July to +9.3 in August. If the index continues to slowdown, it may positively affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of September 14^th;

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Friday, September 20^th

Tentative – Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks: Bank of Japan Governor will speak at the Kisaragi-kai meeting, in Tokyo. Kuroda’s words could influence traders especially considering the recent weakening of Japanese yen in recent weeks;

13:00 – Canada’s core CPI: This report pertains to the CPI and core consumer price index (controlling the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables) for August 2013. According to the latest Canadian CPI report for July, the core CPI remained unchanged This report might affect the Canadian dollar, which is also strongly correlated with oil rates;

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for September 23-27


Despite the high volatility in the commodities markets, gold and silver didn’t do much on a weekly scale as both precious metals rallied; on the other hand, oil and natural gas changed direction and fell during last week. The highly expected FOMC meeting didn’t result in big changes in policy as the FOMC didn’t taper QE3 for now. Perhaps in December the FOMC will announce of a change in policy. I remain skeptic. Until then, many news items and speeches will unfold during the week including: U.S core durable goods report, China manufacturing PMI, ECB president speech, U.S consumer confidence, U.S’s GDP second quarter estimate, Germany’s manufacturing PMI, U.S pending and new home sales, German business climate, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is a breakdown for the week of September 23^rd to September 27^th referring to U.S, China, Euro Area, Canada, and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):
Monday, September 23^rd
German Federal Elections: The elections for the German Federal Parliament will take place. If the incumbent Chancellor Merkel remains in office along with its party, this news won’t stir up the forex markets across Europe;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): This is HSBC’s flash manufacturing PMI survey for September. Last month’s report regarding August 2013 the Manufacturing PMI rallied to 50.1 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is expanding. If in the upcoming report the PMI continues to rise, it could signal growth in China’s economy. This may also positively affect commodities prices.
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the latest monthly report regarding August 2013, the France’s PMI slipped to 49.7 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are contracting at a slightly faster pace. This report serves signals the changes in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
14:00 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will testify on EU’s economy at the quarterly hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, in Brussels. If Draghi provides in this hearing some insight behind ECB’s monetary policy and future steps, this testimony could affect the Euro;
16:15 – SNB Chairman Jordan’s Speech: The Swiss National Bank Chairman will give a speech; if he announces or implies of any potential changes to the monetary policy of the SNB it could affect the Swiss Franc;

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Tuesday, September 24^th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises the shifts (on a monthly basis) of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of September. In the previous report regarding August 2013, the business climate index rose from 106.2 in July to 107.5 in August; if this trend persists, it might positively affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada Retails Sales (July 2013): This report will refer to the retails sales in Canada as of July. In the previous report regarding June 2013, retails sales fell by 0.8%;
15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: Based on the latest monthly report, for August, the consumer confidence index bounced back and rose to 81.5 (month-over-month). The current expectations are that the September index may keep rising; this report might affect commodities prices including the oil and natural gas;

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Wednesday, September 25^th
07:00 – Gfk German Consumer Climate Survey: This survey projects Germany’s consumers’ economic climate (past and future economic conditions – on a monthly basis) for September. In the latest report for August 2013, the climate index slightly fell to 6.9;
13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods: This report will pertain to August 2013. This monthly report may indirectly indicate the changes in U.S. demand for commodities such as oil and gas. As of July 2013, new orders of manufactured durable goods declined to $485 billion; if this report shows another drop in new orders, then it could pull down not only the USD but also commodities prices;
15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will refer to August 2013; in the recent report (opens pdf; for July), the sales of new homes sharply fell to an annual rate of 394,000 – a 13.4% drop (month- over-month); if the number of home sales keep falling, this may suggest the housing market in the U.S is cooling down; this news may also affect theUS dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Report: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will come out with its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on September 20^th; the shifts in stockpiles could affect the path of crude oil price in the U.S;

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Thursday, September 26^th
09:00 – Euro Area Monetary Development: This monthly update will refer to the developments of the M3, M1 and loans to private sector in the Euro area as of August 2013. In the latest July report, the annual growth rate for M3 inched down to 2.2%; M1 declined to 7.1%. Finally, the annual growth rate of loans to private sector reached -1.4%. This news suggests the EU inflation is declining again as loans continue to tumble and the growth rate of M1 and M3 diminishes. The progress of the EU monetary base is likely to affect the ECB rate decisions in the coming months;
09:30 – GB Current Account: This quarterly report will present any changes in the gap between the impost and exports as of the recent quarter. Based on the latest update, the deficit expanded to 14.5 billion pounds. This report might affect the direction of the British Pound;
13:30 – Last U.S GDP 2Q 2013 Estimate (final): This will be the third and last estimate of U.S’s second quarter 2013 real GDP growth. In the recent estimate the U.S GDP rose by 2.5% in the second quarter of 2013. If in the last estimate, the growth rate for the second quarter is substantially revised, this could affect not only the US dollar but also commodities rates;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on September 20^th; in the latest report the jobless claims rose by 15k to 294k; this upcoming weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and stocks markets;
15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the shifts in pending home sales in the U.S for August; in the recent report, the pending home sales index fell by 1.3% (month-over-month). These data are another signal for the developments in U.S’s housing market; if the housing data shows additional decline in sales, it may pull back the U.S dollar;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage Update: The EIA weekly update on U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of September 20^th; this news may affect natural gas prices;

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Friday, September 27^th
08:00 – KOF Economic Barometer: This monthly report estimates the progress of the Swiss economy in the upcoming months;
10:00 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will give a speech at BocconiUniversity, in Milan. His words could move the markets if they refer to any potential changes in ECB’s policy;
13:30 – U.S Personal spending: This monthly report will pertain to the shifts in income and outlays in the U.S during August; in the last report regarding June the personal income edged up by 0.1%;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (revised):University of Michigan will publish its revised consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could provide information regarding the recent changes in U.S consumers’ sentiment; according to the latest report, the sentiment index decreased to 82.1;

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for October 7-11

Last week, leading commodities including oil and silver rallied. Conversely, other commodities such as gold and natural gas declined. The uncertainty around the progress of the U.S economy as the government shutdown continues may keep commodities moving in different directions. In the foreign exchange market, leading currencies including Euro, Aussie dollar and Canadian dollar appreciated against the US dollar during last week. Looking forward, will the US dollar continue to depreciate? What’s next for leading commodities? This week several reports and events may affect the financial markets. These include: Minutes of FOMC meeting, Japan’s current account, China’s new loans, U.S consumer sentiment, Mario Draghi speaks, GB manufacturing production, Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks, OPEC and IEA monthly oil reports, Canada and Australia’s employment reports, China’s trade balance, German factory orders, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of October 7^th to October 11^th regarding the U.S, Australia, Canada, Euro Area, China, Japan, and Great Britain.All times GMT):


Monday, October 7^th


08:00 – Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves: Swiss National Bank will provide an update on its reserves. In the previous update, total reserves reached 434.2 billion CHF;
00:50 – Japan Current Account: This monthly report will refer to the shifts in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;


Tuesday, October 8^th


08:15 – Switzerland’s CPI: In the pervious report, the consumer price index slipped by 0.1%; this was the second consecutive in which the CPI declined; if the CPI continues to fall, this may eventually affect the Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy;
11:00 – German Factory Orders: The upcoming report will refer to September 2013. In the last update, the factory orders fell by 2.7% during August;
13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding July 2013, exports declined by 0.6% and imports grew by 0.6%; as a result, the trade balance’s deficit widened from $460 million in June to $931 million in July; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be correlated with commodities;
17:00 – SNB Chairman Jordan’s Speech: The Swiss National Bank Chairman will give a speech; if he announces or implies of any potential changes to the bank’s monetary policy, this could affect the Swiss Franc;
00:50 – Minutes of Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Bank of Japan left this month its monetary policy unchanged. The minutes may offer some insight referring to the future plans of BOJ; this news may affect the Japanese yenand consequently commodities prices;


Wednesday, October 9^th


09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production: This update will present the annual rate of GB’s manufacturing production as of August; in the previous report regarding July 2013 the index inched up by 0.2% (M-2-M); this news may affect the British Pound;
11:00 – German Industrial Production: The forthcoming report will pertain to September 2013. In the last update, the industrial production fell by 1.7% during August;
Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the last auction, which was held at the second week of September, the average rate reached 2.95% – the highest rate since mid-2011;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly Update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will provide its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on October 4^th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: In the September FOMC meeting the Fed surprised the markets as it had decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged and not to taper its QE3 program. The no-tapering decision had short term effect on the prices of gold and silver but the in the bonds market long term treasuries rates fell down. Some suspect the decision was close and could have gone in the other direction (i.e. tapering QE3). The forthcoming minutes might offer some additional information behind the Fed’s recent decision and how close the decision was. This could also offer some perceptive behind the next two FOMC meetings. This report could affect not only precious metals but also forex markets;
22:00 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will give a speech at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, in Cambridge. The title of the speech is “The Malcolm Wiener Lecture”;



Thursday, October 10^th


02:30 – Australia Employment Update: In the last report regarding August 2013 the rate of unemployment inched up to 5.8%; the number of employed (seasonally adjusted) slightly decreased by 10,800 people. This report could affect the Aussie dollar (see here the recent report);
Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent developments in China’s new loans. Based on the previous report, the total loans changed direction and rose; this report is another indicator for China’s economic growth;
09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for September analyzes the economic changes of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU;
12:00 – BOE Rate Decision & Asset Purchase Plan: Bank of England will announce its basic rate for October 2013; the MPC will also state of any new shifts to its asset purchase pogrom; as of September, BOE kept its rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan at £375 billion;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on October 4^th; in the previous report the jobless claims slightly rose by 1k to reach 308k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly update of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of October 4^th;
Tentative – OPEC Monthly Report: This report will present the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for September 2013; this update will also refer to the shifts in the production of OPEC countries during the previous month; this news may affect oil prices;
17:00 – Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Speaks: Bank of Japan Governor will give a speech the Bretton Woods Committee 2013 International Council Meeting, in WashingtonDC. Considering the recent high movement of the Japanese in recent weeks, his words could influence traders;
17:20 – ECB President Speaks: Mario Draghi will give another speech this week at the at the Economic Club of New York;


Friday, October 11^th


13:30 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the latest employment report for August 2013, unemployment remained inched down to 7.1%; the employment rose by 59.2k during last month. The upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar and consequently commodities;
Tentative – China’s Trade Balance: According to the latest monthly report, China’s trade balance rose to a $28.5 billion surplus; if the surplus further rises, it could indicate China’s economy is improving and thus may positively affect commodities;

Tentative –IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show a revised (as of September) outlook and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2013 and 2014;
14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary):University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly report; this survey could offer information regarding the latest shifts in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the last report, the sentiment index fell to 76.8;

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 11-15

Major commodities prices have mostly decreased during last week including Oil (Brent), gold and silver prices. The recent U.S GDP and NF payroll report were better than anticipated, which contributed to the rally of the US dollar. Moreover, the decision of ECB to lower its cash rate to 0.25% has also strengthened the USD. The latest decision of S&P to downgrade France’s credit rate is also likely to weaken the Euro early next week. Will the US dollar continue to rally? How will this trend affect commodities prices? Here are the main reports, speeches and events that could stir up the markets next week: U.S industrial production, German GDP for the third quarter, BOE inflation report, China’s new loans, Japan’s current account, Canada’s manufacturing sales, GB climate count, Bernanke and speaks, U.S federal budget balance, Yellen testifies, ECOFIN summit, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of November 11th to November 15th regarding the U.S, Euro Area, China, GB, Canada, Japan, and Great Britain.


Monday, November 11^th


00:50 – Japan Current Account: This monthly update will refer to the developments in the difference between exports and imports for Japan during the previous month; this news may affect the Japanese Yen;


Tentative – China New Loans: This report will pertain to the recent changes in China’s new loans. According to the latest update, the total loans rose for the second consecutive month; this report is another indicator for China’s economic development;



Tuesday, November 12^th


09:30 – GB CPI (October 2013): In the previous monthly update regarding September 2013, the CPI remained unchanged at an annual rate of 2.7%; if the inflation rate resumes its downward trend, it may eventually affect the BOE’s monetary policy;



Wednesday, November 13^th


09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of previous month, the number of unemployed in GB fell by 41.7k; the rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 7.7%;


10:30 –BOE Inflation Report: Bank of England will release its quarterly report that includes the bank’s inflation outlook for 2013 and 2014;


10:30 –BOE Governor Carney Speaks: Governor Carney will give a speech in a press conference along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London;


15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly update on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 8^th;
19:00 – U.S. Federal Budget Balance: This upcoming report will refer to October 2013; this report suggests the government debt growth and thus may affect the shifts in U.S dollar. In the latest report regarding September the deficit declined by $75 billion; if the deficit continues to contract, it could influence U.S policymakers their decision about next year’s budget cuts;


00:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will talks to educators in Washington, D.C.;


Tentative – U.S 10 Year Bond Auction: The U.S government will issue its monthly bond auction; in the previous auction, which was held at the second week of October, the average rate reached 2.66% – the lowest rate since August 2013;



Thursday, November 14^th


06:30 –German Third Quarter GDP 2013: In the second quarter of 2013, Germany’s economy grew by 0.7%. The progress of the German economy is likely to affect the future of ECB monetary policy; if the growth rate doesn’t pick up, this may adversely affect Euro;


09:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin: This monthly report for October analyzes the economic shifts of the Euro Area such as the price stability, interest rate decisions and governments’ debt; this update may provide some perspective on the outlooks of the EU;



09:30 – Great Britain Retail Sales: In the previous month, retail sales in Great Britain slightly rose by 0.6%; this report could affect the British pound;


13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will refer to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 8^th; in the last report the jobless claims fell by 9k to reach 336k; the next weekly update may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;


All Day – Euro-Group Summits: The summit will take place in Brussels as the EU ministers of finance and Euro-Group President may refer to the latest changes in Europe and the potential ramifications of the latest ECB rate drop;


13:30 – Canadian Trade Balance: In the last report regarding August 2013, exports rose by 1.8% and imports grew by 2.1%; as a result, the trade balance’s deficit widened from $1.2 billion in July to $1.3 million in August; this report may affect the Canadian dollar, which tends to be linked with commodities;


13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for September will show the developments in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, such as commodities such as oil and gas; based on the previous American trade balance update regarding June the goods and services deficit expanded to $38.8 billion;


15:00 – Yellen’s Testimony: Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will testify in front of the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate. This will be her confirmation hearing for her nomination of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve position;


15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest developments in natural gas production, storage, consumption and prices as of November 8^th;



Friday, November 15^h


All Day – ECOFIN Summit: The EU ministers of finance will convene and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;


10:00 – Euro Area CPI: Based on the recent update, the annual CPI declined to 1.1%, which is well below ECB’s target inflation; if the inflation continues to fall, it could affect ECB’s monetary policy;


13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales (September 2013): This report will pertain to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of September. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding August 2013, manufacturing sales fell by 0.2%;


14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will present the monthly changes in the industrial production as of October; as of September, the production increased by 0.6%; this report may affect the USD currency;


Good Lucl

[Samirofi]

Edit...

[Samirofi]

Weekly Outlook of Financial Markets for November 18-22


The financial markets remained relatively calm last week: The prices of major commodities including gold and crude oil moved in an unclear trend. In the forex market, the Euro and Canadian dollar rallied against the USD, while the Aussie dollar and Japanese yen declined. The markets might start to stir up again next week as there are many news items and reports that could affect the direction of forex and commodities prices including: Bernanke’s speech, minutes of the FOMC meeting, U.S CPI and PPI, German Ifo business climate, U.S existing home sales, Japan’s trade balance, Canada’s retail sales, GB GDP for the third quarter, RBA’s governor’s speech, Japan’s monetary policy meeting, MPC rate vote, China, Germany and France’s manufacturing PMI flash reports, Philly fed index, U.S and Canada’s retail sales updates, and U.S. jobless claims. Here is an economic outlook for the week of November 18^th to November 22^nd regarding the U.S, Euro Area, GB, Canada, China, Japan, Australia and Great Britain.


(All times GMT):

Monday, November 18^th
09:00 – Euro Area Current Account: In the latest report, the gap in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers grew to 17.4 billion Euros. This report could also indicate the recent changes in the progress of the EU economy;
14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: The Treasury International Capital monthly update will show the developments the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries for September 2013. In the recent report regarding August 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $8.9 billion;
00:30 – Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rate flat at 2.50%; the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting may offer some insight behind its latest decision; this news may affect the Australian dollarand consequently commodities rates;

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Tuesday, November 19^th
10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: The upcoming report will pertain to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for October. In September, the ZEW indicator for Germany rose to 52.8 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to increase, the Euro will plausibly strengthen against other currencies including the US dollar;
23:50 – Japanese Trade balance: Back in September 2013 the Japanese trade balance deficit expanded by 33% compared to August, and reach 1,091 billion yen (roughly $11.13 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This sharp gain in deficit was due to the decline in exports (by 0.3%) and the rise in imports (by 3.8%). Japan is among the leading importers of commodities, including crude oil and gold; its trade balance could offer information vis-à-vis Japan’s shifts in demand for goods and services;
00:00 – Bernanke’s Speech: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will give a speech at the National Economists Club Annual Dinner: Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture; the title of the speech is Communication and Monetary Policy. He is likely to relay his message of the importance of the Fed keeping the public informed of its future monetary plan. This speech could drag down the prices of gold and silver if the Chairman refers to potential plans of pushing back up the tapering of QE3 to the last FOMC meeting of the year;

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Wednesday, November 20^th
09:30 –MPC Asset Purchase and Rate Votes: In the past MPC meeting, the Bank left the rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at £375 billion; this vote count will show how many MPC members voted on any changes to the asset purchase program or interest rate;
13:30 – U.S Core Consumer Price Index: This monthly report pertains to the main changes in the core consumer price index for October 2013. According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during September, the CPI edged up by 0.2% (month-over-month); the core CPI inched up again by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;
13:30 –U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to October; in the previous report regarding September, retail sales inched down by 0.1% (month-over-month); core retail sales rose by 0.4%; this report could signal the developments in U.S’s gasoline demand and thus may affect U.S oil prices;
15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during October 2013; in the last report regarding September 2013 the number of homes sold slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;
15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on November 16^th;
19:00 – Minutes of the last FOMC Meeting: Back in October, the FOMC meeting ended with no major news or change to its monetary policy. The FOMC didn’t hold a press conference following the October statement. The market reaction was very mild. The main issue remains the uncertainty around the future steps of the FOMC vis-à-vis its asset purchase program that continues to push precious metals prices in different direction. The current belief is that the Fed will hold off tapering QE3 until 2014. But some speculate the tapering could be announced at the end of 2013 at the last FOMC meeting of the year. The upcoming minutes might shed some light on this issue, which could stir up the markets again;
21:15 –Governor Poloz speaks: The Governor of Bank of Canada is due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem, before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce, in Ottawa; his words could affect the direction of the Canadian dollar;
02:45 – China Manufacturing PMI (flash): HSBC will release its flash manufacturing PMI survey for November. Last month’s report regarding October 2013 the Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.9 – i.e. China’s manufacturing sectors is growing but at a slightly slower pace. If in the upcoming update the PMI index changes direction and rises, it could signal progress in China’s economy. This may also positively affect commodities prices;
Tentative – Japan’s monetary policy meeting and press conference: In the next Japanese monetary policy meeting, BOJ members will announce of any changes to the bank’s current asset purchase program. This decision may affect the Japanese yen;

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Thursday, November 21^st
09:00 – Flash German, French and Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last monthly report regarding October 2013, the Germany’s PMI inched up to 51.5 i.e. the manufacturing conditions are growing but at a slightly faster pace. France’s PMI inched down to 49.4. This report serves signals to the developments in the Euro Area’s manufacturing conditions; this news, in turn, may affect the Euro/USD currency pair and consequently commodities prices;
09:05 –Governor Stevens speaks: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor is due to deliver a speech titled “The Australian Dollar: Thirty Years of Floating” at the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, in Sydney; this speech may affect the Aussie dollar;
13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly update will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 16^th; in the recent report the jobless claims slipped by 2k to reach 339k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;
13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report shows the inflation rate from the producers’ side, will refer to October 2013. In the previous report regarding September, this index for finished goods slightly fell by 0.1% compared with Augusts’ level and the core PPI inched up by 0.1%; this news might affect the USD;
15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey estimates the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding October, the growth rate fell from +22.3 in September to +19.8 in October. If the index continues to fall, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities(the recent Philly Fed review);
15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will pertain to the recent changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of November 16^th;

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Friday, November 25^th
09:00 – German Ifo Business Climate Index: This index comprises of the shifts (on a monthly basis) in the manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers in Germany as of November. In the last report regarding October 2013, the business climate index inched up from 107.7 in September to 107.4 in October; if this trend continues, it might adversely affect the Euro;
13:30 – Canada CPI: According to the last report, the annual core CPI rose to 1.3% and the CPI increased to 1.1% in the past twelve months; if the inflation continues to rise, this may affect the BOC’s monetary policy;
13:30 – Canada Core Retail Sales (September 2013): This report will refer to the manufacturing sales in Canada as of September. It may affect the USD/CAD currencies pair, which is strongly correlated with commodities. In the previous report regarding August 2013, manufacturing sales rose by 0.4%;

Good Luck